v KS {Sim SSContents Published by Pearson Eduction Limited, 80 Strand, London WC2R ORL, w-pearsonschoolsandfecollegesco.uk Copies of offical specications forall Pearson qualifications may be found on the website: {qualifications pearso.com Text © Pearson Education Limited 2017 Edited by Tech Set Lid, Gateshead “Typeset by TechSet Ltd, Gateshead Original illustrations © Pearson Education Limited 2017 Cover illustration Marcusdija artists ‘The rights of Greg Attwood, Tom Besley, lan Bettison Alan Clee ill Dyer, Jane Dyes John Kinouly, Guilherme Federico Lima, Harry Smith to be identified as authors ofthis work have been asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1088 First published 2017 20191817 10987654321 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data ‘Neatalogue recor for this Book s avaiable from the British Library Ian 978 1 292 18337 4 Copyright notice ‘lights reserved. 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Ifyou spot an enor please da contact us at Fesourcescorrections@pearsanicam so we can make Sure tis corected iie@ Contents Overarching themes iv Extra online content vi Discrete random variables 1 1.1 Expected value of a discrete random variable 2 1.2 Variance of a discrete random variable 5 1.3 Expected value and variance of a function of x 7 1.4 Solving problems involving random variables ul Mixed exercise 1 4 2 Poisson distributions 19 2.1 The Poisson distribution 20 2.2 Modelling with the Poisson distribution 23 2.3 Adding Poisson distributions 2 2.4 Mean and variance of a Poisson distribution 30 2.5. Mean and variance of the binomial distribution 32 2.6 Using the Poisson distribution to approximate the binomial distribution 34 Mixed exercise 2 38 ©3 Geometric and negative binomial distributions “a 3.1 The geometric distribution bh 3.2 Mean and variance of a geometric distribution ar ©3.3. The negative binomial distribution 49 3.4 Mean and variance of the negative binomial distribution 52 Mixed exercise 3 55 4 Hypothesis testing 58 4.1 Testing for the mean of a Poisson distribution 59 42. Finding critical regions for a distribution 62 4.3 Hypothesis testing for the parameter p of a geometric distribution 66 © 4.4 Finding critical regions for a geometric distribution 69 Mixed exercise 4 72 Contents © =Alevel only ©5 — Central limit theorem 76 5.1 The central limit theorem 7 ©5.2 Applying the central limit theorem to other distributions 80 Mixed exercise 5 82 Review exercise 1 85 6 — Chi-squared tests 91 6.1 Goodness of fit 92 6.2 Degrees of freedom and the chi-squared family of distributions 96 6.3 Testing a hypothesis 99 6.4 Testing the goodness of fit with discrete data 103 6.5 Using contingency tables 13 ©6.6 Apply goodness-of-fit tests to geometric distributions 119 Mixed exercise 6 ae @7 Probability generating functions 128 @7.1 Probability generating functions 129 ©7.2 Probability generating functions of standard distributions 132 @7.3 Mean and variance of adistribution 135 © 7.4 Sums of independent random variables 139 Mixed exercise 7 143 ©8 — Quality of tests 146 @8.1 Type land Type ll errors ut ©8.2 Finding Type | and Type Il errors using the normal distribution 153 ©8.3 Calculate the size and power of atest 157 ©8.4 The power function 162 Mixed exercise 8 167 Review exercise 2 173 Exam-style practice: AS 180 ‘© Exam-style practice: A level 182 ‘Appendix 185 Answers, 193 Index 213Overarching themes e@ Overarching themes ‘The following three overarching themes have been fully integrated throughout the Pearson Edexcel AS and A level Mathematics series, so they can be applied alongside your learning and practice. 1. Mathematical argument, language and proof * Rigorous and consistent approach throughout + Notation boxes explain key mathematical language and symbols + Dedicated sections on mathematical proof explain key principles and strategies * Opportunities to critique arguments and justify methods 2, Mathematical problem solving The Mathematical Problem-solving cycle * Hundreds of problem-solving questions, fully integrated r specify the problem } into the main exercises, + Problem-solving boxes provide tips and strategies interpret results ole ain + Structured and unstructured questions to build confidence + Challenge boxes provide extra stretch t proceso J represent information 3, Mathematical modelling + Dedicated modelling sections in relevant topics provide plenty of practice where you need it + Examples and exercises include qualitative questions that allow you to interpret answers in the context of the model + Dedicated chapter in Statistics & Mechanics Year 1/AS explains the principles of modelling in mechanics Finding your way around the book Access an online digital edition using the code at the Discrete random 1 front of the book. variables Each chapter starts with a list of objectives The real world applications, of the maths you are about | to lear are highlighted at the start of the chapter with links to relevant questions in the chapter The Prior knowledge check helps make sure you are ready to start the chapter ivOverarching themes Alevel content is Exercises are packed with exam- style questions to ensure you are ready for the exams Challenge boxes give you a chance to tackle some more difficult questions Each section begins = with explanation ————_Bsrentwauiewonietnssaniian and key learning : points Each chapter ends with a Mixed exercise and a Summary of key points . Step-by-step Exercise questions Problem-solving boxes | ah @ worked examples are carefully graded —_provide hints, tips and focus on the key 50 they increase strategies, and Watch out Problem-solving types of questions in difficulty and boxes highlight areas where questions are flagged you'll need to gradually bring you students often lose marks in with ® tackle uptoexam standard their exams Every few chapters a Review exercise helps you consolidate your learning with lots of exam-style questions Exam-style practice Further Math, 7 rematics Further Statistics 1 Review exercise 1 Nitin tec ce AS and A level practice papers at the back of the book help you prepare for the real thing,Extra online content e@ Extra online content Whenever you see an Online box, it means that there is extra online content available to support you. SolutionBank SolutionBank provides a full worked solution for every question in the book. EXD suivoressourcrsve SE available in SolutionBank. Download all the solutions as a PDF or quickly find the solution you need online Use of technology Dometic nreedeaivivatse SED) rnd ng poncaresscion CP? problems and consolidate your understanding _gfaphically using technology. using pre-made GeoGebra activities. GeeGebra GeoGebra-powered interactives Be ee Interact with the maths you are learning weno using GeoGebra's easy-to-use tools stunt all the extra online content for free at: www.pearsonschools.co.uk/fsimaths You can also access the extra online content by scanning this QI viAfter completing this chapter you should be able to: © Find the expected value of a discrete random variable Y + pages 2-5 © Find the expected value of X2 © Find the variance of a discrete random variable > pages 3-5 > pages 5-7 © Use the expected value and variance of a function of Y > pages 7-11 © Solve problems involving random variables Discrete random variables are an important tool in probability. Banks and stockmarket traders use random variables to model their risks on investments that have an element of randomness. By calculating the expected value of their profits, they can be confident of making money in the long term. > pages 11-14 The random variable X ~ B(1z, 2). Find: a P(X=2) b PLY ¢ P@Y) aYs a ° —_—_——_ eee con =e) 1 2 40) +1) =-05 Y+tyo4 Vartx) = Var(X$4) = Svart¥) = 1.55 3 So E(X*) = VarlX) + (E(X)F = 155 +025 = 16, E(X) = -2 x O3-1xa+Ox 025 +1xb+2xe batb+e= =-05 Rearranging ~atb+ 2c 2) F(X) = 4 xOS+1xa+Ox 025 +1xb+4xe 8 Rearranging aths4e=06 3) 12Discrete random variables Writing equations (1), (2) and (3) as a single matrix equation: Ci) -(8) So, by inverting the matrix we find a 1 2 1 \ (0.45) 02 ()-( F 3G)-(8 ec “2 Oo @ O06 0.05, Soa = 0.2, b = 02 and ¢= 0.05. ip aliemeeid sali: —— Eee) So P(X > ¥)=0.3 +02 +025 =075 eee | 1 Visa discrete random variable. The random variable ¥ is defined by Y = 4 - 6. Given that E(Y) = 2 and Var ¥) = 32, find: a E(X) b Var(x) © the standard deviation of X. 2. Yisa discrete random variable. The random variable Y is defined by Y = ase Given that E(¥) = -1 and Var(¥) = 9, find: a EX) b Var(X) © EW?) ©® 3 The discrete random variable X has a probability distribution given by x 1727,3 [4 pxsy [03s | a | 6 [02 The random variable Yis defined by Y= 2X + 3. Given that E(Y) = 8, find the values of a and b. ‘The discrete random variable X has a probability distribution given by x 90° [180° | 270° Pa=ay | a | 6 [03 The random variable Yis defined as Y = sin X°. a Find the range of possible values of E(Y). (S marks) b Given that E(Y) = 0.2, write down the values of a and b, (2 marks) 13Chapter 1 ©® 5 The discrete random variable X has a probability distribution given by x =2a[-[o[i[2 PX=y [a |b |e | ob la The random variable Yis defined Y= (X + 1)?. a Given that E(Y) = 2.4 and P(Y > 2) = 0.4, show that: 2a+2b+e=1 10a +46 +0=2.4 a+b =04 b Hence find the values of a, b, and c. ¢ Find P2X +3 ¥). GP) 6 The discrete random variable ¥ has a probability distribution given by a x=1,2,3 PUX=x=9b x=4,5 x26 Suppose that Y is defined by Y= 1 - 2X. a Given that E(Y) = -5.6 and P(Y = -5) = 0.6, write down the value of E(X). (1 mark) b Show that: 3a+2b+ c= 2a+3b+2e= 1.1 a+2b+ c= 06 (4marks) © Solve the system to find values for a, b, ¢ (2 marks) d Find P(V> 5+ ¥). (2 marks) Dt Rear 1 The random variable ¥ has the probability function PLX= x) 1,2, 3,4, 5,6 a Construct a table giving the probability distribution of X. Find: b P2<¥<5) © EX) a Var(X) e Var(3 - 2X) £ BOS) 2 The discrete random variable X has the probability distribution given in the table below. £ 2 -1 o I me a px=x) | 01 [02] 03 | 7 [or [or Find: ar b P(-1<.¥<2) © EQY+3) dd Var(2.¥ +3) 14Discrete random variables 3 A discrete random variable X has the probability distribution shown in the table below. x oft ]2 P(v=x) ¢ b | d4b a Find the value of b. b Show that EY) = 1.3. ¢ Find the exact value of Var(X). Find the exact value of PU = 1.5). ©) _ 4 The discrete random variable X has a probability function kKU-x) x= 0,1 PWexy= 4 Kx- 1) v= 2,3 0 otherwise where k is a constant. a Show that k= (2 marks) b Find E(X) and show that E(X%) = 5.5. (4 marks) ¢ Find Var(2X - 2). (4 marks) 5 A discrete random variable ¥ has the probability distribution x 0 1 2 3 pxsy | a |r | os | Find: a P< <2) b EX) e EGX-1) d Var(X) e E(log(¥ + 1) 6 A discrete random variable X has the probability distribution x 1 2 3 4 pxsx | 04 | 02 | 01 | 03 Find: a PG X) (2 marks) @®) 17 The discrete random variable X has a probability distribution given by x 2 0 2 3 4 P(X=x) | a 5 a b © ‘The random variable Y is defined as Y You are given that E(Y) = -0.98 and P(Y > -1) = 0.4. a Write down three simultaneous equations in a, b and ¢. (4 marks) b Solve this system to find the values of a, b and e, (3 marks) ¢ Find P(-2X>10Y). (2 marks) Ces CED sou can make use of the Let m be a positive integer and suppose that Wis a discrete following results: random variable with P(X =i) = } for i: ba nln = y antl Pa estat Aan) 2 Mn+ 1)(2n+1) ‘Show that E(¥) = "5 and Var(¥) = 72 ye ae € Core Pure Book 1, Chapter 3 a7Chapter 1 fue 18 it The expected value of the discrete random variable X is denoted E(X) and defined as, E(X) = D)xP(X=x) The expected value of X? is E(X2) = )?P(X =x) The variance of ¥’is usually written as Var(X) and is defined as Var(X) = E((X - E(X))*) Sometimes, it is easier to calculate the variance using the formula Var(X) = E(X?) — (E(X))? If X's discrete random variable, and g is a function, then g(X) is also a discrete random variable. You can calculate the expected value of g(¥) using the formula: E(g(X)) = Deals) P(X = x) If Visa random variable and a and b are constants, then E(aX + 5) = aE(X) +b. If and Y are random variables, then E(X + Y) = E(X) + E(Y) If Visa random variable and a and A are constants then Var(aX + 5) = a?Var(X)After completing this chapter you should be able to: © Use the Poisson distribution to model real-world situations + pages 20-27 Use the additive property of the Poisson distribution > pages 27-29 © Understand and use the mean and variance of the Poisson distribution > pages 30-31 © Understand and use the mean and variance of the binomial distribution > pages 32-34 Use the Poisson distribution as an approximation to the binomial distribution > pages 34-38 The random variable X ~ B(35, 0.4). Find: a P(Y=20) b PLY <6) ¢ P(I5<_¥<20) € Statistics and Mechanics Year 1, Chapter 6 A biased dice is modelled by a random variable X with the following probability distribution. x 1fz[3][4][5 le The Poisson distribution is used to P(X=x) | 02 | 01 | O01 | O2 | O1 | 03 if model the number of times an event e. gay occurs within a fixed period of time. Find: SRG Scientists use Poisson distributions to a EY) b E(x?) LF model the frequency of meteor strikes. © Var(x) Rear ee rate ae DA! Ba RinChapter 2 @ The Poisson distribution The exponential function e* can be defined as an infinite series expansion: This is the Maclaurin expansion of e* € Core Pure 2, Chapter 2 distribution with parameter 2, where 4 > 0. 1 pp eae F ity ge at 3! rr Dividing both sides by e gives tet Ped pe reser, tet, Het, Pe uta * 3! Notice that the sum of the probabilities of the a infinite series on the right-hand side equals 1 Paar eter eoTai and so you could use these values as probabilities Sareea eee vee meee een to define a probability distribution. If we let X be a discrete random variable such that X takes the values 0, 1, 2, 3, ... then the probability distribution for X could be: x 0 1 2 3 . r | at ett et? ete eur PU) W 2 3 7 This distribution is called the Poisson distribution. CEEELED this is an infnite probability = If X-~ Po(), then the Poisson distribution distribution. P(X = x) > 0 for any positive is given by integer x, although as x gets large, the probabilities get very small. CED 60 say that xhas a Poisson Example [:) distribution with parameter 2 The random variable X ~ Po( 2.1). Find: a P(Y=3) b PLY 1) e P(l< X¥=4) P(X= eu Use the formula PLW= x) =< with x =3 and As2. a P= 3) - - i 3! You can work this out using the Poisson = 0.189011 probability distribution function on your 0.1890 (4 dp) | calculator. Firs 0) tet | Wean only take positive integer values. 0.1224. 0.6775 (4 de) ~__—_________ Round probabilities to 4 decimal places. 20