Materials Objective :

• Trend Identification
• Dow Theory Principals
• Market Movements : Primary, Secondary, Minor Movement
• Multiple Timeframe
 Technical Analysis
Metode mengevaluasi suatu pasar dengan cara menganalisa statistik yang
telah dihasilkan oleh aktivitas pasar di masa lampau guna memprediksi
pergerakan harga di masa mendatang serta memahami kondisi psikologi
pasar.

Finding the Finding the

Trend Turning Point
 Trend is a Direction
Price Move in a Trend

Bullish Trend Bearish Trend

 Price Structure
Higher Peak

Peak

Bullish Trend
Higher Trough

Trough
 Price Structure

Peak

Lower Peak

Bearish Trend
Higher Trough
Trough

Lower Trough
Price Structure

Similar Peak

Similar Trough
 Charles Henry Dow developed the Dow Theory from his analysis of market
price action in the late 19th Century. CHD, also create Dow Jones Industrial
Average (DJIA) & Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA).

6 Principals of Dow Theory

1. Market Action Discount Everything.
Charles Henry Dow 2. Market Has Three Movements : Primary, Secondary, Minor.
1851 - 1902
3. Market Trends Has Three Phases.
4. Average Must Confirm.
5. Volume Must Confirm The Trend.
6. Trend is Continuation Until Definitive a Signal of Reversal.
MARKET ACTION DISCOUNT EVERYTHING
 Market Action Discount Everything
What Determine the Price Movement?
Fundamentals : Politics : Psychology : Rumors :
• Monetary Policy • War • Hope • Intervensions
• Fiscal Policy • International Treaty • Fear • Corporate Action Issues
• Economic Growth • Trade War • Panic • Buyback Issues
• Perfomance Financial • Election • Greed • Insider Information
AVERAGE MUST CONFIRM EACH OTHER
 Average Must Confirm Each Other

Intermarket Correlation
All markets move in a cycle and there are always relationships between one market to another market
since all financial assets are linked in a cycle.

Validation Trend appear when the markets confirm each other.

(1) USD/IDR to Composite Index
(2) Commodity Price to Stocks
(3) Stocks Index to Stocks

Intermarket Correlation provide an confirmation for potentially price movement and warn of
potentials reversals.
Correlation USDIDR with Composite Index
MARKET HAS THREE MOVEMENTS
 Market Has Three Movements
Primary Movement
• The Biggest Wave on a Price Movement.
• Create a new High in a Bullish Trend (Higher Peak) and new low in a Bearish Trend (Lower Low)
• Positive Correlation with a Major Trend.

Secondary Movement
• A counter-reaction movement from a major trend.
• Temporary Movement and Secondary Movement < Primary Movement by a Price and Time.
• In Bullish Trend, secondary movement is a downward movement and Bearish Trend is a upward
movement.

Minor Movement
• Minor appear as a subdivision of the Primary Movement or Secondary Movement.
• Using for Entry and Exit the Market.
Primary & Secondary Movement : Bullish Trend
HP
HP

HP

HT

HT

LT
Primary & Secondary Movement : Bearish Trend
LP

LP LP

LT
LT LP

LT

LT
Minor Movement on Primary/Secondary Movement
Minor Movement on Primary/Secondary Movement
Minor Movement on Primary/Secondary Movement
Minor Movement on Primary/Secondary Movement
Minor Movement on Primary/Secondary Movement
Minor Movement on Primary/Secondary Movement
 A Mature Trend
Entry on the Beginning of Primary Movement! (Major Timeframe)
Fibonacci 38% - 50%
 Multiple Timeframe
Multiple Timeframe help traders to create an entry/exit more precision on every position. There are
no good or bad trading time frame, all the same!

Forecasting Timeframe Entry Timeframe

Stocks : Weekly Chart Stocks : Daily Chart or H1
Forex : Daily Chart or H4 Forex : H4 or m30

Entry (optional) Timeframe

Forex : m15

Forecasting Time Frame  State BULL or BEAR (no if word). Trend Analysis, Primary & Secondary
Analysis (big capture).

Entry Timeframe  Entry/Exit the market! (Entry Technique).

END OF FIRST SESSION
 APPLICATION SESSION

Step 1 : Application Tools Step 4 : Analysis & Interpretation

• Open www.investing.com • How many Primary/Secondary.
• Charts  Live Chart • Range of Primary Movement.
• How Many Minor Movement.

Step 2 : Trend Analysis

• Weekly Chart Step 5 : Stocklist
• Confirm the Price Movement & Coding
• Bullish Trend or Bearish Trend • Study Case (1) = BBRI (May 2018 – Present)
• Primary Movement or Secondary Analysis • Study Case (2) = ICBP (May 2018 – Present)
• Study Case (3) = BWPT (Feb 2017 – Present)
Step 3 : Looking for Entry
• Daily Chart or Hourly Chart
• Dynamic Support/Resistance
• Classic Support/Resistance
 APPLICATION SESSION
Study Case 1 (BBRI May 2017 – Present)

• Major Timeframe (Weekly Chart)

Primary Movement = 3
Secondary Movement = 3

• Minor Timeframe (Daily Chart)

Primary Movement (1) = 5 minor movement
Primry Movement (2) = 13 minor movement
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