KEMENTERIAN RISET, TEKNOLOGI, DAN PENDIDIKAN TINGGI

UNIVERSITAS JAMBI FAKULTAS PERTANIAN

JURUSAN AGRIBISNIS

Bahan Kuliah
Manajemen Produksi Agribisnis

Oleh

Prof. Dr. Ir. Suandi, M.Si

Dosen Tetap pada Jurusan Agribisnis
Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Jambi

Materi

Forecasting
 METODA METODA
PERAMALAN
• Top-down Forecasting
– Metoda peramalan yang dirancang oleh berbagai pakar
pada bidang masing2 (produksi dan jasa) yang dibuat
oleh lembaga2 perguruan tinggi, pemerintah dan
perusahaan atas kepentingan sendiri.
• Bottom-up Forecasting
– Suatu metoda yang dimulai dari perkiraan permintaan
(produksi dan jasa) pada rentang waktu, metoda2
dengan menggunakan berbagai estimasi2 dari
pelanggan
Strategic Role of Forecasting

✓ Focus on supply chain management

✓ Short term role of product demand
✓ Long term role of new products,
processes, and technologies
✓ Focus on Total Quality Management
✓ Satisfy customer demand
✓ Uninterrupted product flow with no
defective items
✓ Necessary for strategic planning

3
Components of Forecasting Demand

✓ Time Frame
✓ Short-range, medium-
range, long-range
✓ Demand Behavior
✓ Trends, cycles, seasonal
patterns, random
 Time Frame

✓ Short-range to medium-range
✓ Daily, weekly monthly forecasts of
sales data
✓ Up to 2 years into the future
✓ Long-range
✓ Strategic planning of goals, products,
markets
✓ Planning beyond 2 years into the future

5
 Demand Behavior
✓ Trend
✓ gradual, long-term up or down
movement
✓ Cycle
✓ up & down movement repeating over
long time frame
✓ Seasonal pattern
✓ periodic oscillation in demand which
repeats
✓ Random movements follow no pattern

6
 Forecasting Methods

✓ Time series
✓ Regression or causal modeling
✓ Qualitative methods
✓ Management judgment, expertise, opinion
✓ Use management, marketing, purchasing,
engineering
✓ Delphi method
✓ Solicit forecasts from experts

7
 Time Series Methods
✓ Statistical methods using historical
data
✓ Moving average
✓ Exponential smoothing
Demand?
✓ Linear trend line
✓ Assume patterns will
repeat
✓ Naive forecasts
✓ Forecast = data from last period

8
 Moving Average

✓ Average several periods of data

✓ Dampen, smooth out changes
✓ Use when demand is stable with no
trend or seasonal pattern

Chaithawat Thongintr. School of Management Mae Fah Luang University. 2006 9

 Simple Moving Average

ORDERS
MONTH PER MONTH 3
Jan 120 
i=1
Di
Feb 90
MA3 =
Mar 100 3
Apr 75
May 110 90 + 110 + 130
=
June 50 3
July 75
Aug 130 = 110 orders for Nov
Sept 110
Oct 90

10
 Simple Moving Average

ORDERS THREE-MONTH
MONTH PER MONTH MOVING AVERAGE
Jan 120 –
Feb 90 –
Mar 100 –
Apr 75 103.3
May 110 88.3
June 50 95.0
July 75 78.3
Aug 130 78.3
Sept 110 85.0
Oct 90 105.0
Nov – 110.0

11
 Simple Moving Average

ORDERS THREE-MONTH
MONTH PER MONTH MOVING AVERAGE
5
Jan 120 –
Feb 90 – 
i=1
Di
Mar 100 – MA5 =
Apr 75 103.3 5
May 110 88.3
90 + 110 + 130 + 75 + 50
June 50 95.0 =
July 75 78.3 5
Aug 130 78.3
Sept 110 85.0 = 91 orders for Nov
Oct 90 105.0
Nov – 110.0

12
 Simple Moving Average

ORDERS THREE-MONTH FIVE-MONTH

MONTH PER MONTH MOVING AVERAGE MOVING AVERAGE
Jan 120 – –
Feb 90 – –
Mar 100 – –
Apr 75 103.3 –
May 110 88.3 –
June 50 95.0 99.0
July 75 78.3 85.0
Aug 130 78.3 82.0
Sept 110 85.0 88.0
Oct 90 105.0 95.0
Nov – 110.0 91.0

13
 Smoothing Effects

150 –

125 –

100 –
Orders

75 –

50 –

Actual
25 –

0– | | | | | | | | | | |
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Month
14
 Smoothing Effects

150 –

125 – 5-month

100 –
Orders

75 –

50 – 3-month

Actual
25 –

0– | | | | | | | | | | |
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Month
15
 Exponential Smoothing

Ft +1 =  Dt + (1 - )Ft
✓ Averaging method
where
✓ Weights most Ft +1 = forecast for next
recent data more period
strongly Dt = actual demand for
✓ Reacts more to present period
recent changes Ft = previously
✓ Widely used, determined forecast
accurate method for present period
 = weighting factor,
smoothing constant
16
Effect of Smoothing Constant

0.0    1.0
If  = 0.20, then Ft +1 = 0.20 Dt + 0.80 Ft

If  = 0, then Ft +1 = 0 Dt + 1 Ft 0 = Ft
Forecast does not reflect recent data

If  = 1, then Ft +1 = 1 Dt + 0 Ft = Dt
Forecast based only on most recent data

17
 Exponential Smoothing

=0.3

PERIOD MONTH DEMAND

F2 = D1 + (1 - )F1
1 Jan 37
2 Feb 40 = (0.30)(37) + (0.70)(37)
3 Mar 41 = 37
4 Apr 37
5 May 45 F3 = D2 + (1 - )F2
6 Jun 50 = (0.30)(40) + (0.70)(37)
7 Jul 43 = 37.9
8 Aug 47
9 Sep 56 F13 = D12 + (1 - )F12
10 Oct 52
= (0.30)(54) + (0.70)(50.84)
11 Nov 55
= 51.79
12 Dec 54

Example 8.3
18
 Exponential Smoothing

FORECAST, Ft + 1
PERIOD MONTH DEMAND ( = 0.3) ( = 0.5)
1 Jan 37 – –
2 Feb 40 37.00 37.00
3 Mar 41 37.90 38.50
4 Apr 37 38.83 39.75
5 May 45 38.28 38.37
6 Jun 50 40.29 41.68
7 Jul 43 43.20 45.84
8 Aug 47 43.14 44.42
9 Sep 56 44.30 45.71
10 Oct 52 47.81 50.85
11 Nov 55 49.06 51.42
12 Dec 54 50.84 53.21
13 Jan – 51.79 53.61

Example 8.3
19
 Exponential Smoothing
Forecasts
70 –

60 – Actual  = 0.50

50 –

40 –
Orders

 = 0.30
30 –

20 –

10 –

0– | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Month 20
 Linear Trend Line

y = a + bx
where
a = intercept (at period 0)
b = slope of the line
x = the time period
y = forecast for demand for period x

21
Linear Trend Line

 xy - nxy
b =  x2 - nx2

a = y-bx

where
n = number of periods
x
x = = mean of the x values
n
y
y = n = mean of the y values

22
 Least Squares Example

x(PERIOD) y(DEMAND) xy x2
1 73 37 1
2 40 80 4
3 41 123 9
4 37 148 16
5 45 225 25
6 50 300 36
7 43 301 49
8 47 376 64
9 56 504 81
10 52 520 100
11 55 605 121
12 54 648 144
78 557 3867 650

23
 78
x = = 6.5
12
y = 557 = 46.42
12
b = xy - nxy
x2 - nx2

= 3867 - (12)(6.5)(46.42)
650 - 12(6.5)2
= 1.72
a = y - bx
= 46.42 - (1.72)(6.5)
= 35.2

24
Linear trend line

y = 35.2 + 1.72x

Forecast for period 13

y = 35.2 + 1.72(13)
y = 57.56 units

25
 Linear Trend Line

70 –

60 –
Actual
50 –
Demand

40 –

30 – Linear trend line

20 –

10 –

0– | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Period
26
 Seasonal Adjustments

✓ Repetitive increase/
decrease in demand
✓ Use seasonal factor
to adjust forecast
Di
Seasonal factor = Si =
D

27
 Seasonal Adjustment

DEMAND (1000’S PER QUARTER)

YEAR 1 2 3 4 Total
1999 12.6 8.6 6.3 17.5 45.0
2000 14.1 10.3 7.5 18.2 50.1
2001 15.3 10.6 8.1 19.6 53.6
Total 42.0 29.5 21.9 55.3 148.7

D1 42.0 D3 21.9
S1 = = = 0.28 S3 = = = 0.15
D 148.7 D 148.7
D2 29.5 D4 55.3
S2 = = = 0.20 S4 = = = 0.37
D 148.7 D 148.7

28
 Seasonal Adjustment

DEMAND (1000’S PER QUARTER)

YEAR 1 2 3 4 Total
For 2002
1999 12.6 8.6 6.3 17.5 45.0
2000 14.1 10.3 7.5 18.2 50.1 y = 40.97 + 4.30x
2001 15.3 10.6 8.1 19.6 53.6 = 40.97 + 4.30(4)
Total 42.0 29.5 21.9 55.3 148.7 = 58.17
Si 0.28 0.20 0.15 0.37

SF1 = (S1) (F5) SF3 = (S3) (F5)

= (0.28)(58.17) = 16.28 = (0.15)(58.17) = 8.73

SF2 = (S2) (F5) SF4 = (S4) (F5)

= (0.20)(58.17) = 11.63 = (0.37)(58.17) = 21.53

29
 Forecast Control

✓ Reasons for out-of-control forecasts

✓ Change in trend
✓ Appearance of cycle
✓ Weather changes
✓ Promotions
✓ Competition
✓ Politics

30
Causal Modeling with Linear
Regression

✓ Study relationship between two

or more variables
✓ Dependent variable y depends
on independent variable x

y = a + bx

31
Linear Regression Formulas

a = y-bx
 xy - nxy
b =
 x2 - nx2
where
a = intercept (at period 0)
b = slope of the line
x
x = = mean of the x data
n
y
y = n = mean of the y data

32
Linear Regression Example

x y
(WINS) (ATTENDANCE) xy x2
4 36.3 145.2 16
6 40.1 240.6 36
6 41.2 247.2 36
8 53.0 424.0 64
6 44.0 264.0 36
7 45.6 319.2 49
5 39.0 195.0 25
7 47.5 332.5 49
49 346.7 2167.7 311

33
Linear Regression Example

49
x= = 6.125
8
x y
346.9
(WINS)y = = 43.36
8 (ATTENDANCE) xy x2
4 36.3 145.2 16
xy - nxy2
6 b= 40.1 240.6 36
6 x2 - nx41.2
2
247.2 36
8 (2,167.7) - 53.0
(8)(6.125)(43.36)424.0 64
6 =
(311) 44.0
- (8)(6.125)2 264.0 36
7 45.6 319.2 49
5 = 4.06 39.0 195.0 25
7 47.5 332.5 49
a= y - bx
49 = 346.7
43.36 - (4.06)(6.125) 2167.7 311
= 18.46

34
Linear Regression Example

49
x= = 6.125
8
x y
346.9
(WINS)y = 8
= 43.36
(ATTENDANCE)
Regression xy
equation x 2

4 36.3 y = 18.46
145.2+ 4.06x
16
xy - nxy2
6 b= 40.1 240.6 36
2Attendance forecast for 7 wins
x2 - nx41.2
6 247.2 36
8 (2,167.7) - 53.0 y = 18.46
(8)(6.125)(43.36) 424.0+ 4.06(7)
64
=
6 - (8)(6.125)2 = 46.88,
(311) 44.0 264.0 or 46,880
36
7 45.6 319.2 49
5 = 4.06 39.0 195.0 25
7 47.5 332.5 49
a= y - bx
49 = 346.7
43.36 - (4.06)(6.125) 2167.7 311
= 18.46

35
Linear Regression Line

60,000 –

50,000 –

40,000 –
Attendance, y

30,000 –

20,000 –

10,000 –

| | | | | | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Wins, x
36
Linear Regression Line

60,000 –

50,000 –

40,000 –
Attendance, y

30,000 –

Linear regression line,

20,000 – y = 18.46 + 4.06x

10,000 –

| | | | | | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Wins, x
37