This book is about a single idea.

I call it a secret on the cover, but it’s more of an

open secret. It’s an idea that’s very well known by all the top players in the world.

For years now, these players have been studying and refining this idea to create

distance between themselves and everyone else who plays poker. It’s not like

there’s a conspiracy. This secret is not jealously guarded by the poker Illuminati or

anything. People have been talking and writing publicly about this idea for years.

But, for various reasons, the vast majority of poker players are today still, on a

practical basis, unaware of it. With this book, I aim to change this state of affairs. I

want the poker players of the 99 percent—all the folks that grind all those hours

—to understand the fundamental reason that elite players have become elite and

left everyone else in the dust. I want people to understand what has made players

such as Phil Galfond so successful. This understanding alone won’t make you elite.

After all, it’s just a thought. To become elite, you need to do hundreds and

thousands of hours of analysis informed by this central idea. Work. Just like any

other field, to become elite, you need to know what work to do, and then you

need to work, work, work. I make this analogy often, because I think it’s apt.

Getting good at poker is the same as getting fit. It’s not enough to pop in the

workout DVD, sit on the couch, grab some popcorn, and watch. The DVD is useful

because it motivates you, and it instructs you in how to do the work that will give
you maximum benefit. But results only come when you actually do the work. I

have several goals with this book. First, to motivate you. Here’s my pep talk. If you

read this book and then put in the work I show ED MILLER 6 you how to do, you

can get a whole lot better at poker than you are today. No, you likely won’t win

millions like Galfond or Ivey. Just like you won’t become the next Adrian Peterson

or Cristiano Ronaldo just by going to the gym every day. To reach the tip top of

poker requires elite inborn ability, knowledge of the idea in this book (and more

advanced ideas too), and the drive to work like crazy. But most regular folks can

get really fit if they put in the work— and they do their workouts correctly. And

similarly, most people can get pretty darn good at poker if they put in the work,

but they need to work correctly. I hope that’s motivating. You can get pretty darn

good at poker— much better than you are today—by reading this book and doing

the work I show you how to do. Second, this book is designed to get you working

the right way. I talk to a lot of people about poker. Most poker players are

focused on the wrong things. Almost all of them have developed thought

processes that will stunt them. Eventually, if these players challenge themselves

against better opponents, they will be unable to win. This is true even if they work

to get better, because they will be working on the wrong things. The idea in this

book is key to breaking out of this cycle. It’s an idea that will, if you use it regularly
to analyze your hands, point you toward the systematic errors you make that

leave you vulnerable against better players. In many ways, this is a very simple

book. I present one idea, and I show you how to use it. I have made the book as

simple as possible. Some might say I have oversimplified things. If I’ve

oversimplified something, it’s because I want to make sure the point is clear and

doesn’t get lost in difficult calculations. POKER’S 1% 7 The reason I believe that

this idea has remained an open secret for years is because the application of the

idea can quickly become very complex. The math behind this idea starts out

complicated and becomes exponentially more complicated as you demand more

precision. If you want perfect, forget it. If you want near perfect, you’ll need high

math aptitude, lots of patience, and thousands of hours to work things out. Most

of the public discourse on this idea is at the near perfect level. It’s complicated

and difficult for lots of players to follow and apply. This book is written at the

“good enough” level. If you understand everything in this book, it is good enough

to get you over a hump and make you a force at small and medium stakes no-limit

hold’em, either live or online. (Medium stakes online at the time of this writing

means roughly the $1-$2 or $2-$4 level. Medium stakes live means the $5-$10

level.) I have a feeling that most people who read this book will learn the central

idea, try out the analysis as I present it, and go no further. That’s fine. It’s good
enough to make you one of the best regulars in your medium stakes game. But

it’s not good enough if you want to crack the 1%. If your goal is to become elite,

you have to dive further down the rabbit hole and do the complex work to refine

the ideas as I present them in the book. Everywhere in the book where I throw a

number out and say something like, “This number is approximate—it’s close

enough,” is a place where you will need to work to try to get a better number. For

the most part, you’re on your own for that. At the end of this book, I will direct

you to a few more advanced books and some software tools that will help you.

But most of this refined-level work is unpublished and truly a secret. It gets

hashed out over ED MILLER 8 dinners among elite players and in long hours in

front of glowing computer monitors. That’s the reality of modern poker. The goal

of this book is more modest. I want to bridge the gap between the 1% and

everyone else. I want to show you what you may be missing. I want to give you a

few “aha” moments. And I want to start you out on the path from here to the