PRE-TAREA - PRE-CONOCIMIENTO DEL CURSO

TEORIA DE LAS DECISIONES

Código del curso - (212066A_761)
Grupo : 212066_32

Presentado por:
ANGIE CAROLINA MIELES
Código: 1.065.897.716

TUTOR:
RICARDO JAVIER PINEDA

INGENIERÍA INDUSTRIAL
UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA (UNAD)
ESCUELA DE CIENCIAS BÁSICAS, TECNOLOGÍA E INGENIERÍA (ECBTI)
AGUACHICA- CESAR
FEBRERO 2020
 INTRODUCTION

In the present work, the concepts and previous knowledge of decision theories are studied.
Additionally, the respective development of the three exercises proposed in the activities
guide is presented, beginning with event probabilities, where we deal with topics of events,
sample space and Laplace's law, and consecutively, the system of equations is developed by
means of the graphic method, finding the cut-off point, and we end with the solution of the
matrix operations (n * m) or (m * m).
Exercise 1 In a bag there are 10 balls numbered from 11 to 20, some
red and others green.

Consider, then, a sample space that has 10 elements:

E = {11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20}

With the above data, answer:

a) We take out without looking at a ball, what is the probability of

getting a prime number?

4/10=0.4
40%

b) How many balls are there in each color?

5/10=0.5
0.5*100=50%

Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations:

Using the algebraic graphical method, determine the cut-off point and
solution that satisfies the following systems of equations:

1. Y = -4X + 6
 2. Y = -2X + 1

For values of 1 and 0 of the variable x in each of the equations. That is,
replacing in each equation first if x takes value of 1 and if it takes the
value of zero to graph its lines.

Exercise 3. Matrix operations:

The Markov chains use probabilities of previous states, from there that
the matrix multiplication is very important to solve this type of
problems. Given the following matrices of size (n * m) or (m * m) solve
the product of them.
 0.3 0.4 0.3
1. A= [0.1 0.5 0.4] B= 0.5 0.3 0.2
0.3 0.3 0.4

0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2

2. A= 0.1 0.5 0.4 B= 0.1 0.2 0.7
0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5

In the previous exercises, solve the matrix operation (A * B)

 conclusion

It is carried out, it is contextualized on key concepts towards the development of the current
course, event probabilities are made, each of the possible probabilities is determined at the
time of executing each exercise; by means of the graphic representation the cut-off point is
found, highlighting the values generated in the value table, and it is finished with the
solution of the matrices by means of the multiplication row by column. Additionally, we
studied and learned the handling of tools for the calculation of matrices and programs that
serve to graph the exercises, which in real life are very useful and help to maximize the
time of us as engineers.
 BIBLIOGRAPHICS

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and

Applications. (pp. 347-378), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt
Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Retrieved
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Pineda, R. (2017). Virtual learning object Unit 1 - Decision

models under risks. [Video File]. Retrieved
from http://hdl.handle.net/10596/13263

Aven, T. (2008). Risk Analysis: The Risk Analysis

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