Riphah School of Business and Management

Final Term (Fall 2020)

Subject Name: Managerial Decision Making Program: MSEM & MBAE

SAP ID: _________________ Date: _____________
Allowed time: 180 minutes Total Marks: 100 marks
Instructions: Attempt all questions.

Question 1
a) Using an example, explain how decision trees can be used to aid in the decision-making
process. (15 marks)
b) Critically evaluate the strengths and limitations of the expected value approach for making
decisions. (10 marks)

Question 2
a) Using examples and diagrams as appropriate, explain the addition law and multiplication
law of probabilities. (15 marks)
b) Explain the difference between dependent and independent events. (10 marks)

Question 3
a) Differentiate between physical vs. computer-based simulations and between deterministic
vs. stochastic simulation models. (10 marks)
b) Simulations are one of the key tools being used by governments and businesses to
understand and predict the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Discuss the benefits and
drawbacks of simulations as a decision making tool in this context. (15 marks)

Question 4
a) Using an example, describe the general procedure for the Analytic Hierarchy Process
(AHP). (15 marks)
a) Discuss the strengths of the AHP technique relative to other multi-criteria decision-making
techniques. (10 marks)

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