Assignment 2

Corona Virus- Lockdown

Wadiah Akbar 213-500366

Aleeze Azhar 213-478667

Phase 1: Realization and Isolation
Question 1: Impact of lockdown in different countries?
As the coronavirus continues to spread, some countries are putting their citizens on various
forms lockdown. New Zealand, Poland, UK, China, France and India have applied the world’s
largest and most preventive mass quarantines.

❖ All non-essential arrivals to the US from the European Union on 15 March were blocked
by President Trump, and the EU a day later did the same.

❖ The world’s biggest airports air traffic had dropped to a portion by the end of March as
compared to last year.

❖ Travel within major cities across the globe has come to a halt as to restrict the movement
and social contact of the people.

❖ Residents in cities like Madrid, Paris, London and New York were making less than one-
tenth as many journeys.

❖ In Tokyo, schools have been shut since the beginning of March. Lack of tourist and
shutting down of schools explains why there is less traffic.

❖ Transport into and out of Wuhan was suspended, with no exception even for personal and
medical emergencies. School and university holidays were extended, and all shops shut
except those selling essential items like food and medicine.

❖ In Jakarta, Indonesia, where there has been no official lockdown, overcrowding has
already dropped to almost zero - similar to Los Angeles and New Delhi which shut down
on different dates.
 ❖ In Pakistan, educational institutions are shut down, businesses were shut down. But now
after partial lockdown has been lifted few business are back in operation and one of them
is the construction business.

❖ There is only one positive effects of the shutdown and that is that there seems to have
been a drop in pollution in some parts of the world.

❖ Most people in developing countries are part of an informal economy, and so they’re hard
to target with financial aid — and that’s if a country can afford to offer it.

❖ They often also have no savings and need the money they earn each day or each week to
feed their family. That makes it impossible for them to comply with social distancing
rules. If people expect to starve at home, they’ll be willing to risk the penalties of
breaking quarantine if it means getting work and feeding their family.

Question 2: For how many days lockdown is sustainable in Pakistan?

❖ Lockdown in Pakistan can sustain for another 10 to 15 days. But now although corona is
still there lockdown has been shifted partially. Businesses that can lead to congestion are
still closed/ shut down like salons, malls, salons/ barber shop.

Question 3: What’s the upside versus downside of an extended

lockdown/ curfew?
❖ According to the current situation there are chances that it will get worse before it gets
better and so lockdowns will be remain in place complete or partial.

❖ This battle is to be fought until the vaccine is discovered so the lockdown has to be
appropriate and economically sustainable.

❖ The first and most important thing is to flatten the curve of coronavirus. Lockdown will
help that to happen.
 ❖ Secondly if the lockdown time is utilized properly then we can get rid of corona easily
and quickly. Building isolation and quarantine centers, building a separate hospitals like
China did for corona cases.

❖ Giving homeless people to stay who are at risk so that to prevent the spread of
coronavirus.

❖ There is a need to procure ventilators and protective gear for medical personals and the
public.

❖ A third advantage is getting time to test as many at-risk people as possible and where
appropriate isolating them and tracking and testing their contacts.

❖ Finally, the fourth advantage is to gain time in the hope that a cure is soon found.

❖ Downside is the daily wagers are starving, studies of students of schools-university- and
college is being affected badly, business of home bakers is affected.

Question 4: Stakeholders? Implication for each interest group?

❖ As the COVID-19, is spreading around the world and having a dramatic impact on
people, communities, and businesses around the world, health has become number one
priority. Stake holder refers to individuals or group of individuals who have an interest or
concern especially in the business. In respect to COVID-19 stake holders refers to all
those individuals who are being effected be that government bodies, business men,
retailers, wholesalers, investors, employees, suppliers, customers.

❖ The businessmen, investors, suppliers, producers do not want the lockdown to extend
because extending the lockdown would make it extremely difficult for their respective
businesses to survive. While on the other hand government bodies and hospital officials
want the lockdown to extend because they are of the view that if a relief is brought down
into lockdown, it can further spread the hazardous coronavirus which is very true as it has
been noticed that 40% of the cases have increased in Karachi as of today as a result of
bringing relief for the people in lockdown.
❖ Pakistan’s economy is projected to face a loss of up to 4.64 percent in GDP because of
disruptions in trade after the outbreak of COVID-19. So both importers and exporters
want the lockdown to end.
❖ Grocery stores do not want the lockdown to end because their sales are high after the
lockdown and people have no other option than buying from grocery stores only.
❖ Most of the banking services are working online so even if the lockdown stays they are
fine with it.
❖ Doctors, army, police and bankers are at great risk since they are still performing their
duties under strict precautionary measures.
❖ Daily wagers including barbers, plumbers etc. they are being affected the most during
this lockdown. Pakistan’s great population comprises of daily wagers and they are
extremely poor with no savings so it is matter for death and life for them. They never
wanted a lockdown because they knew they and their families will starve to death.
❖ Global economy is suffering from an unprecedented supply shock which has boost the
inflation and it is not a good sign for small businesses, industrialists and manufacturers.
❖ The world is already awash in liquidity, with nominal interest rates close to or below zero
nearly everywhere and this mainly impact banks.
❖ Like many other countries, the government of Pakistan is also worried about the
economy. Pakistan’s economy is already struggling. Prime Minister Imran Khan says he
is worried about the poor if a lockdown is imposed across the country. His concerns are
not unfounded but there is another aspect to it. Can we really compare the cost of losing
human lives with anything else? You cannot save the economy if you are burying
hundreds of dead bodies every day. The PM also said that the world changed post 9-11
but the coronavirus will change the world in ways we have not witnessed in the 21st
century. We are going to have to get used too many new things – from the concept of
self-isolation to losing millions of people to a pandemic and a global economic recession
we haven’t seen in decades. We will have to face challenges unheard of before. The
political implications for rulers who fail their nations now will be grave. Italy’s tragic
example is unfolding right in front of our eyes.

❖ The following are few instructions/problems that the government officials have faced in
imposing lockdown.
❖ All the commissioners of Punjab have been instructed by the Disaster Management
Department that the waiting areas should be segregated with a minimum distance of 6
feet. Also they were instructed that the district administration should continue to manage
the protocols effectively at the camp sites by the officers/officials deputed for their
management.

❖ Deputy Commissioners have been issued SOPs for Clinical management, surveillance
and response finalized by technical working groups.

❖ Data of travelers from China received from airport health officer is being consolidated
and shared with concerned DHAs for tracking of the passengers at their locations and
screen them for any symptoms of COVID-19 infection. The process of tracking of
passengers and response has been initiated by DHAs and is in process.
❖ The worthy Chief Minister Punjab chaired a situational review and preparedness meeting
on 27.02.2020
❖ The DGHS Chaired review meeting with PDSRU Team regarding updated situation of
COVID-19 Preparedness and Response.
❖ Provincial Working Group on Strategy to combat Corona Virus threat in Punjab under
the Convener-ship of Worthy Minister Health Punjab including departmental heads,
infectious disease experts and academia as members has been notified by Chief Minister
Office Punjab Dated 04.02.2020
❖ Hand washing and cough etiquettes promotion campaign initiated in schools of Punjab
through SHNS.

❖ Chief Minister initiated INSAAF CASH ASSISTANCE PROGRAMME for vulnerable

and affected families in Punjab with certain eligibility criteria. Also quarantine centers
have been set up for keeping and examining the people tested positive for coronavirus or
showing any related symptoms.
Question 5: Which business have improvised and how? What are the
various considerations to fight Corona?

❖ In this pandemic environment, every business/organization needs to improvise its strategies

with wisdom. Accessing the capital you need and maximizing liquidity now are the most
important things we can do to survive; getting that message to legislators who hold the key
to our economic future is how we do it.

❖ However, in this pandemic every business sector is trying to effectively operate online
starting with the universities/schools/college which have started online classes/coaching so
that the students and most importantly the graduating classes time should not waste. The
restaurants were already providing delivery services and online order placing facility so their
sales increased.

❖ Due to the lockdown enforcement the people stopped going outside but continued ordering
their food from restaurants and some of the restaurants/fast food restaurants effectively took
precautionary measures while delivering the food but still it has become a source of
spreading the virus so many people have stopped availing this opportunity too, people have
started trying and testing recipes at home to ensure hygiene.

❖ The manufacturing and textile industry’s business and production has halted currently which
may lower down their profitability and the industries have started firing employees for cost-
cutting as it was told in the news that Mian Mansha of Nishat clothing industries has fired
almost around 900 employees. Some textile industries have taken this opportunity and
started producing specialized suits, masks used especially by hospital officials to protect
themselves against coronavirus.
Phase 2: Minimal Relaxation with SOPs
Question 6: What should be these relaxation and under what SOPs?
What if the relaxation results in a spike?

❖ Lockdowns, quarantines and extreme forms of physical distancing work: They are
curbing the spread of Covid-19. But they cannot last indefinitely, at least not without
causing enormous damage to economies and compromising peoples’ good will and
emotional well-being.
❖ When governments decide to close schools (or not), for example, they are implicitly
trying to balance these various interests. One major problem, though: Their calculus
about the underlying trade-offs typically is unclear, and the criteria for their policy
adjustments are unknown.
❖ A formal framework is needed, with an explicit rationale grounded in science, for
determining when and how and based on what factors to relax restrictions and how to
reapply some or all of them should another epidemic wave hit again.
❖ Containment has failed everywhere. In some places like Wuhan in February; northern
Italy in March the epidemic spread so quickly that the relevant authorities had to focus
mainly on mitigating its effects, on damage control. In other places, suppression has
worked so far: Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan have not experienced sustained local
epidemics. Not yet, at least.
❖ The Covid-19 pandemic can only be prevented from resurging when at least half the
world’s population has become immune to the new virus. And that can happen in only
one of two ways: After enough people have been infected and have recovered, or have
been inoculated with a vaccine.
❖ Allowing the first option to happen, unmitigated, would be a humanitarian catastrophe: It
would mean very many deaths, mostly among the elderly and poor people with limited
access to health care. The second option is developing a safe, effective vaccine and
making enough of it for everybody is a goal at least one year, perhaps two years, away.
Massive lockdowns and distancing measures cannot be sustained that long.
❖ How best to do that will vary by country, depending on its means, its tolerance for
disruption and its people’s collective will. In all cases, however, the challenge essentially
 is a three-way tug of war between combating the disease, protecting the economy and
keeping society on an even keel.
❖ Here is a formal framework for how governments could monitor the state of this
pandemic much more accurately than many seem to be doing now, and how then, acting
on the evidence, they could tune their interventions quickly enough to stay ahead of the
outbreak trajectory.
❖ For starters, one needs robust data. Policy must not be determined based on the daily
count of reported cases — the tallies you read about constantly in the news because those
are unreliable. What’s needed instead is the coronavirus’s real-time, effective
reproduction number, or its actual ability to spread at a particular time. And one needs to
understand that number properly, in context.
❖ The rate at which a virus is transmitted, known as the R-naught (R0), or basic
reproductive number which refers to the average number of people to whom an infected
person passes on the virus in a population with no pre-existing immunity. The R0 can
vary from place to place because of the population’s age structure and how frequently
people come into contact with each other.
❖ The “effective” version of that number, the Rt or the reproductive number at time “t” is
the virus’s actual transmission rate at a given moment. It varies according to the measures
to control the epidemic which are quarantine and isolation protocols, travel restrictions,
school closures, physical distancing, the use of face masks that have been put in place.
❖ Despite the lifesaving benefits of these measures, WHO nonetheless highlighted the
“profound negative impact on individuals, communities, and societies” of lockdown
measures, as social and economic life is brought “to a near stop”.
❖ Such measures disproportionately affect “people in poverty, migrants, internally
displaced people and refugees, who most often live in overcrowded and under-resourced
settings, and depend on daily labor for subsistence,” the UN health agency noted.
❖ Insisting on the “urgent need” for a resumption of “some parts of economic and social
life”, the Geneva-based agency cautioned that the social and economic benefits of any
such transition would need to be weighed against the risk of the virus spreading.

❖ “Without careful planning, and in the absence of scaled-up public health and clinical care
capacities, the premature lifting of physical distancing measures is likely to lead to an
 uncontrolled resurgence in COVID-19 transmission and an amplified second wave of
cases’.

Question 7: Comparison between great depression and now?

The great depression and economic crises caused by coronavirus has been compared.
Following are the similarities and difference.

❖ Similarities: The 1929 economic crisis was activated by stock market assumption, while
the reason underlying the current crisis is the fact that we are face to face with a freeze in
the economy due to the coronavirus epidemic.

❖ There was a situation in both the 1929 and 2020 coronavirus crises that had an adverse
effect on workers.

❖ The further the coronavirus spreads and the further the economy shrinks, its impact on
unemployment becomes deeper.

❖ In the event that the coronavirus epidemic is persistent, it appears the unemployment
issue will be the most serious matter in the social and political domain.

❖ In 1930, U.S. gross domestic product—the value of all the goods and services the country
produces— shrank by 8.5% as the economy contracted; it lost another 6.4% in 1931, and
yet another 12.9% in 1932.

❖ Yesterday, Morgan Stanley said it is predicting a 30.1% decline in GDP next quarter—
that would be the worst quarterly performance in 74 years, according to Politico.

❖ Differences: The 1929 economic crisis had started with stock market speculations, yet
the cause of the current crisis is the coronavirus epidemic, which has brought economies
to a standstill.

❖ In the 1929 crisis, the world had united and formed institutions such as the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank to deal with global finance problems post-crisis,
and thanks to the measures taken with this cooperation, the Great Depression was
overcome.
 ❖ However, in the coronavirus economic crisis of 2020, countries have individual decision-
making processes. While the epidemic is global, the measures taken to fight the virus and
the economic problems it has caused are on a domestic scale.

❖ The source of the 1929 economic crisis was economic shocks, while the most striking
characteristic of the crisis caused by the coronavirus epidemic is, perhaps, that it compels
countries to make a choice between health and the economy.

❖ While it was the shrinking demand that stood out in the 1929 crisis, the shrinking demand
as well as the drop in demand for fuel, oil prices plummeting worldwide, and the global
energy wars that have heated up after the shock appear as the serious consequences of
this epidemic.

Question 8: How did different economies revive after: great depression

and World War 2?
Great Depression:
❖ Given the key roles of monetary contraction and the gold standard in causing the Great
Depression, it is not surprising that currency devaluations and monetary expansion were
the leading sources of recovery throughout the world.

❖ There is a notable correlation between the times at which countries abandoned the gold
standard (or devalued their currencies substantially) and when they experienced renewed
growth in their output.

❖ Britain, which was forced off the gold standard in September 1931, recovered relatively
early, while the United States, which did not effectively devalue its currency until 1933,
recovered substantially later.

❖ Latin American countries of Argentina and Brazil, which began to devalue in 1929,
experienced relatively mild downturns and had largely recovered by 1935.

❖ In contrast, the “Gold Bloc” countries of Belgium and France, which were particularly
wedded to the gold standard and slow to devalue, still had industrial production in 1935
well below that of 1929.
❖ United States did not use fiscal expansion to a noticeable extent early in its recovery, but
they increased military spending substantially after 1937.
❖ In US union membership more than doubled between 1930 and 1940 and they also
established unemployment compensation, old-age and survivors insurance through
the social security Act (1935).
❖ France raised taxes in the mid-1930s in an effort to defend the gold standards.
World War 2:
❖ Belgium experienced a brief but very rapid economic recovery in the aftermath of World
War II. The comparatively light damage sustained by Belgium's heavy industry during
the German occupation and the Europe-wide need for the country's traditional exports
(steel and coal, textiles, and railway infrastructure) meant that Belgium became the first
European country to regain its pre-war level of output in 1947.

❖ Economic growth in the period was accompanied by low inflation and sharp increases in
real living standards.

❖ In Germany the price controls began to ease and markets revive following the currency
reforms of 1948.
❖ Germany remained restrictions on imports for another year on production in strategic
industries.
❖ The reconstruction of Western Europe was done with the abolition of the command
economy and the liberalization of prices and wages. The elimination of the dollar
shortage also took place to enable countries ravaged by war to import the capital goods
necessary to rebuild their infrastructure and restock their factories.
❖ After 1950 Japan's economy recovered from the war damage and began to boom, with the
fastest growth rates in the world.

❖ Given a boost by the Korean War, in which it acted as a major supplier to the UN force,
Japan's economy embarked on a prolonged period of extremely rapid growth, led by the
manufacturing sectors.

❖ Japan emerged as a significant power in many economic spheres, including steel

working, car manufacturing and the manufacturing of electronics.
Question 9: What are the parallels we can draw with 1965 and 1971 war
on terror, IDP’s operations in SWAT and Waziristan?

❖ The Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 was a military confrontation

between India and Pakistan that occurred during the liberation war in East Pakistan from
3 December 1971 to the fall of Dacca (Dhaka) on 16 December 1971.

❖ The war began with preemptive aerial strikes on 11 Indian air stations, which led to the
commencement of hostilities with Pakistan and Indian entry into the war of
independence in East Pakistan on the side of Bengali nationalist forces. Lasting just 13
days, it is one of the shortest wars in history.

❖ The First Battle of Swat, also known as Operation Rah-e-Haq, was fought
between Pakistan and the Tehrik-i-Taliban in late 2007 over control of the Swat
District of Pakistan.

❖ The battle began on October 25, 2007 and involved the Pakistani Army and TTP-led
forces in a fight for control of the Swat district of Pakistan. From October 25, 2007, to
November 7, 2007, the militants quickly seized control of the region.

❖ On November 15, 2007, a Pakistani offensive commenced. Despite the victory by the
Pakistani army, Taliban militants slowly re-entered Swat over the following months and
started engaging security forces in battles that lasted throughout 2008.

❖ By early February 2009, the Taliban had managed to regain control of most of Swat and
at least 80 percent of the district was under their control.

❖ The Second Battle of Swat also known as Operation Rah-e-Rast, began in May 2009 and
involved the Pakistani Army and Taliban militants in a fight for control of
the Swat district of Pakistan.

❖ The first Battle of Swat had ended with a peace agreement, widely criticized in the west,
that the government had signed with the Taliban in February 2009.
 ❖ By late April 2009 government troops and the Taliban began to clash once again, and in
May the government launched military operations throughout the district and elsewhere
to oppose the Taliban.

❖ Afghan government began openly accusing Pakistan of using its ISI spy network in
aiding the Taliban and other militants. This led to the United States warning Pakistan of a
possible military action against the Haqqanis in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.
❖ By August 22, 1.6 million of 2.2 million refugees returned home, as per UN
estimates. On January 11, 2010, Hayatullah Hamyo one of the TTP commanders
in Swat was captured in Orangi Town in Karachi where he was keeping a low profile by
working for PTCL (Pakistan Telecommunication Company Ltd).

Question 10: Life of IDP’s?

❖ The refugees are known in Pakistan as Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs).

❖ Most of the 1.2 million people who have escaped the violence were staying with relatives
or friends, placing tremendous strain on the country, while over 300,000 others are
seeking refuge in UNHCR-supported camps.

❖ IDPs had sought shelter in Islamabad and Rawalpindi.

❖ Government could not provide them with facility of education for children and permanent
food shelter. They had to bed for food and clothes on the roads
❖ There is a need to strengthen over-burdened health facilities in terms of provision of
medicines; medical supplies, trained human resources, and capacity-building of health
care staff.
❖ The presence of more NGOs is needed for greater health coverage.
❖ Our elite class, and some of the middle class population has enough resources and
savings to survive this pandemic. But life has become hell for the lower class people and
the people below the poverty line. They have become unemployed with zero savings and
no source of survival.
 ❖ Our government, however is keenly trying to develop schemes and programs like
‘INSAAF CASH ASSITANCE PROGRAMME’ designed mainly for the vulnerable and
poor families affected by COVID-19.

Question 11: Definition and difference between epidemic, endemic, and

pandemic?
❖ An epidemic is a disease that affects a large number of people within a community,
population, or region.

❖ A pandemic is an epidemic that’s spread over multiple countries or continents.

❖ Endemic is something that belongs to a particular people or country.

❖ The difference is in epidemic quickly spreads and that problem is described as getting out
of control quickly. Pandemic has passport to spread that disease on geographical level-
whole country or whole world. And endemic is constant presence of a disease at one
place.
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developing-world

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https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/644396-a-sustainable-lockdown-strategy

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_Khyber_Pakhtunkhwa

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