CAPITOLUL 2

02'(/$5($(&2120(75,& 0(&$1,60(ù,$35(&,(5,&5,7,&(

2.1. &RQVWUXF LDúLVWUXFWXUDPRGHOHORUHFRQRPHWULFH

2.1.1.Cadrul contabil
2.1.2. Mecanismele
2.1.3. )D]DGHDQDOL] DPRGHOHORU
2.1.4. Utilizarea modelelor

&ULWLFDPRGHO ULLHFRQRPHWULFHWUDGL LRQDOH

2.2.1. ReSUH]HQWDUHDDQWLFLSD LLORU

2.2.2. &ULWLFDOXL6LPVLSRWH]HWHRUHWLFHúLFDX]DOLWDWH
2.2.3. )XQF LDGHUHDF LHDDXWRULW LORUúLFULWLFDOXL/XFDV
2.2.4. Modele econometrice cu regimuri multiple
 02'(/$5($(&2120(75,& 

0(&$1,60(ù,$35(&,(5,&5,7,&(

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finele anilor ‘40), modelarea eFRQRPHWULF DGREkQGLWvQPDMRULWDWHD ULORUXQORFLPSRUWDQW

SHQWUX D UHDOL]D OXFU UL GH DQDOL]  úL SUHFL]LXQH HFRQRPLF  IXQGDPHQWDWH ULJXURV úWLLQ LILF

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pertiQHQ HL VDOH SHQWUX JkQGLUHD HFRQRPLF  ILH GH PDQLHU  PDL UDGLFDO  FKLDU DVXSUD

SULQFLSLXOXL FRQFHS LHL úL SXQHULL VDOH vQ SUDFWLF  'XS  R VFXUW  UHWURVSHFWLY  LVWRULF 

DVXSUD PRGHO ULL YH]L &DSLWROXO  SUH]HQW P vQ FHOH FH XUPHD]  VWUXFWXUD X]XDO  D

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SUDFWLFH D PRGHOHORU SURSXVH 3DUWHD ILQDO  UHYLQH DVXSUD FULWLFLORU SULYLWRDUH OD PRGHODUHD

HFRQRPHWULF WUDGL LRQDO «

&RQVWUXF LDúLVWUXFWXUDPRGHOHORUHFRQR metrice

&RQVWUXF LDXQXLPRGHOvQFHSHSULQFRQVWLWXLUHDXQHLE QFLGHGDWHFXDOWHFXYLQWHD

ansamblului de serii statistice necesare.

(VWH YRUED GHVSUH R VDUFLQ  D F UHL GLILFXOWDWH HVWH FkWHRGDW  VXEHVWLPDW  'DF 

VHULLOH FH FRUHVSXQG FRQWDELOLW LL QD LRQDOH VXQW GHVWXO GH XúRU GH UHFRQVWLWXLWH VHULLOH

ILQDQFLDUH VHULLOH SULYLQG RFXSDUHD IRU HL GH PXQF  RUJDQL]DUHD PXQFLL úL PDL DOHV VHULLOH

FH SULYHVF HFRQRPLLOH GLQ H[WHULRU VXQW GLILFLO GH JHQHUDW vQ FLXGD SRILGD H[LVWHQ HL

E QFLORULQWHUQD LRQ
ale de date.
O datã banca de date constituit  SRDWH vQFHSH FRQVWUXF LD PRGHOXOXL SURSULX ]LV

3HQWUX vQFHSXW WUHEXLH GHILQLW FDGUXO V X FRQWDELO úL OLVWD FRPSRUWDPHQWHORU FH WUHEXLH

modelate.

2.1.1. Cadrul contabil

Cadrul contabil este asigurat de contDELOLWDWHD QD LRQDO  úL FRQVW  GLQWU-un tablou
economic general FDUH LGHQWLILF  UHVXUVHOH úL XWLOL]DUHD ORU GH F WUH GLIHUL L DJHQ L SHQWUX
GLYHUVHRSHUD LL

ÌQWDEORXOGHPDLMRVSUH]HQW PFD]XOXQXLPRGHODJUHJDWFXXQVLQJXUSURGXVúLXQ

singur agent public numit “Stat´ úL FDUH UHJUXSHD]  6WDWXO %DQFD &HQWUDO  &ROHFWLYLW LOH

ORFDOHúL$VLJXU ULOH6RFLDOH

0RGHOHOH RSHUD LRQDOH VXQW vQ JHQHUDO PXOW PDL GH]DJUHJDWH GLQFROR GH GLVWLQF LD

SUHFHGHQW HOHFRPSRUW PDLPXOWHSURGXVH

7UDQVIRUP ULOH úL RSHUD LLOH DVXSUD EXQXULORU úL VHUYLFLLORU VXQW SULQ XUPDUH

PXOWLSOLFDWHúL GHFLWUHEXLHvQSDUWLFXODUV  PRGHO PFRQVXPXOLQWHUPHGLDUDO XQXL SURGXV

GH F WUH FHOHODOWH UDPXUL $JUHJDUHD FRPSRUWDPHQWHORU HVWH GH DOWIHO R SUREOHP  WHRUHWLF 

LPSRUWDQW FDUHHVWHFHOPDLDGHVHDLJQRUDW GHPRGHODUHDPDFURHFRQRPLF 

3ULPD OLQLH GHVFULH HFKLOLEUXO EXQXULORU úL VHUYLFLLORU VDX PDL H[DFW DO RIHUWHL

SURGXF LH úL LPSRUW FX FHUHUHD FRQVXP LQYHVWL LL FKHOWXLHOL SXEOLFH úL H[SRUWXO ÌQ

schema neo-NH\QHVLDQ  FD re include majoritatea modelelor econometrice existente, se

PRGHOHD]  YROXPXO VFKLPE ULORU H[WHUQH úL GLIHULWH FRPSRQHQWH DOH FHUHULL LQWHUQH

FKHOWXLHOLOH SXEOLFH ILLQG H[RJHQH úL VH GHWHUPLQ  YROXPXO SURGXF LHL GH HFKLOLEUH SHQWUX

EXQXULúLVHUYLFLL3UH XULOHSHQWUXGLIHULWHFRPSRQHQWHVXQWFDOFXODWHSRUQLQGGHODXQSXQFW

FHQWUDO FDUH HVWH vQ JHQHUDO SUH XO GH SURGXF LH IDFWRULDO $ GRXD OLQLH UHJUXSHD] 

transferurile de venit. Impozitele sunt fie exogene, fie calculate simplu folosind ratele de
impunHUH DSOLFDWH H[RJHQ ³VDUFLQLORU´ ILVFDOH FRUHVSRQGHQWH 7UDQVIHUXULOH GH GREkQG  úL
GHGLYLGHQGHGHSLQGGHSDVLYHOHVDXDFWLYHOHDFXPXODWHDQWHULRUGHSURILWXULOHúLGHUDWHOH
dobânzilor furnizate de echilibrul financiar. Salariile sunt calculate porninG GH OD HFXD LLOH
FDUHGHWHUPLQ RFXSDUHDúLUDWDVDODULXOXLSHOXFU WRU

$JHQ LL SULYD L GH LQ EDQL FDUH VXQW vPS U L L vQWUH GHSR]LWH EDQFDUH úL DOWH IRUPH GH

PRQHG  GH XQGH úL LQFOXGHUHD FHUHULL GH PRQHG  úL SDUWDMXO vQWUH GLYHUVH VRUWLPHQWH GH

active monetare.
ÌQ YHUVLXQHD GH]DJUHJDW  D SLH HORU ILQDQFLDUH SUH]HQWDWH vQ Tabelul 1, vom face
GLVWLQF LD vQWUH FUHGLWHOH EDQFDUH úL DOWH WLWOXUL ERQXUL GH WH]DXU REOLJD LXQL DF LXQL 3ULQ

XUPDUH WUHEXLH V  GLVSXQHP GH XQ DQVDPEOX GH HFXD LL FDUH SHUPLW determinarea
SUH XULORU GH HFKLOLEUX DO DFHVWRU SLH H UDWD GREkQ]LL OD FUHGLW úL FXUVXULOH WLWOXULORU VDX UDWD

dobânzii pe termen lung).

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HFKLOLEUDWHúLGDF WRDWHSLH HOHVHDIO vQHFKLOLEUXXOWLPDSLD HVWHDXWRPDWvQHFKLOLEUX

În modelul keynesian academic de tip IS HFKLOLEUX SH SLD D EXQXULORU úL LM
HFKLOLEUXPRQHWDUDIRVWRPLV SLD DWLWOXULORU

ÌQ DFHODúL WLPS SXWHP UH LQH úL DOWH VROX LL SHQWUX D FRQVWU ui modele econometrice,
GH H[HPSOX HFKLOLEUXO FRQWXOXL % QFLL &HQWUDOH vQ VFKHPD HFRQRPLHL GH vPSUXPXW UH LQXW

în modelele franceze care include un sector financiar (METRIC, OFCE – $QQXDO úL 2)&(
7ULPHVWULDO ÌQ SULQFLSLX DOHJHUHD UHOD LHL FRQWDELOH RPLVH QX DUH LPSRUWDQ  GDF  PRGHOXO

HVWH FRHUHQW 3XWHP vQ DFHODúL WLPS V  YHGHP vQ PRG SUDFWLF F  DWXQFL FkQG VLPXO P

DFHVWPRGHOWRDWHHURULOHFRPLVHVHDFXPXOHD] SHDFHDVW SLD 

 Tabelul 1 – Cadrul contabil al modelelor

StaWXOúL 6WDWXOúL

Menaje Întreprinderi Banca % QFL Exteriorul Menaje Întreprinderi Banca % QFL Exteriorul
&HQWUDO &HQWUDO

Cheltuieli Bunuri Salarii

Consum ,QYHVWL LL Exporturi 3URGXF LH Importuri
publice úLVHUYLFLL dividende
Salarii
Dobânzi Salarii
Impozite Salarii Venituri Impozite Dobânzi Dobânzi
Impozite dobânzi
Dividende
0RQHG 0RQHG
Bani Bilete Depozite
GH LQXW GH LQXW

5HOD LL

Rezerve bancare Rezerve

5HILQDQ DUH 5HILQDQ DUH
obligatorii Banca obligatorii
&HQWUDO

Credit de Credit
Credit
Credit consum pentru
bancar
ORFXLQ H întreprinderi
Împrumuturi
Bonuri
2EOLJD LXQL ,QWU ULGH 2EOLJD LXQL de stat ,HúLULGH
de tezaur, Titluri
DF LXQL capital DF LXQL Bonuri de capital
2EOLJD LXQL
tezaur
2.1.2. Mecanismele

'XS FHDPOXDWFXQRúWLQ GHFDGUXOFRQWDELOYRPWUHFHODGHVFULHUHDSULQFLSDOHORU

PHFDQLVPH SULQ FDUH DFHVWD GHYLQH RSHUD LRQDO &X DOWH FXYLQWH HVWH YRUED GHVSUH

VWUXFWXUD WHRUHWLF  IRORVLW  X]XDO SHQWUX FRQVWUXF LD GH PRGHOH PXOWLSOLFDWRUXO NH\QHVLDQ

HYLF LXQHD SULQ UDWD GREkQ]LL HYLF LXQHD SULQ SUH XUL HIHFWXO GH RIHUW  'DF  YRP H[FOXGH

“H[SHULHQ HOH DWLSLFH´ GHVFULVH DQWHULRU DFHDVW  VWUXFWXU  SDUH GH HVHQ  QHR NH\VLDQ
- 

$GLF  HD IDFH FD QLYHOXO SURGXF LHL V  GHSLQG  GH FHUHUH HD vQV úL IXQF LH GH YHQLWXO

rezulWDW GLQ SURGXF LH 3H GH DOW  SDUWH GDF  YRP H[DPLQD PDL vQGHDSURDSH IXQF LRQDUHD

PRGHOHORUQHSXWHPVLWXDXQHRULGHVWXOGHGHSDUWHID GHVFKHPDSXUNH\QHVLDQ 

Primul mecanism important este multiplicatorul $WXQFL FkQG R FRPSRQHQW  HVWH

H[RJHQ  FHUHUHD FUHúWH LDU SURGXF LD VSRUHúWH UH]XOWkQG R GLVWULEXLUH GH YHQLWXUL

VXSOLPHQWDUH SULQ FUHúWHUHD PDVHL VDODULDOH úL SURILWXULORU GLVWULEXLWH GH XQGH R QRX 

FUHúWHUH D FHUHULL úL R VSRULUH D SURGXF LHL vQ ILQDO PDL LQWHQV  GHFkW P ULUHD LQL LDO  D

cerHULLGHXQGHúLQXPHOHGHmultiplicator*.
$FHVW PXOWLSOLFDWRU HVWH WRWRGDW  UHGXV SULQ GRX  HIHFWH ³GH HYLF LXQH´ VDX
**
³UHWURDF LXQH´ HYLF LXQHD ILQDQFLDU  úL HYLF LXQHD SULQ SUH XUL  'DF  SROLWLFD PRQHWDU 

HVWH VWD LRQDU  QHVFKLPE WRDUH DGLF  RIHUWD GH EDQL QX YDULD]  R FUHúWHUH H[RJHQ  D

FHUHULL GH H[HPSOX R SROLWLF  EXJHWDU  H[SDQVLRQLVW  FH DQWUHQHD]  R VSRULUH D

FKHOWXLHOLORU SXEOLFH JHQHUHD]  WHQVLXQL SH SLH HOH ILQDQFLDUH FDUH SRW vPEU FD GLYHUVH

forme:
- exces al cererii de credite din paUWHD vQWUHSULQGHULORUFDUH GRUHVF V LQYHVWHDVF 

mai mult sau;

- H[FHV GH HPLVLXQH GH WLWOXUL GLQ SDUWHD VWDWXOXL FDUH GRUHúWH V  ILQDQ H]H

LPHQVHOHFKHOWXLHOLSXEOLFHI U DIDFHDSHOODHPLVLXQHDPRQHWDU 

$FHVWH WHQVLXQL ILQDQFLDUH JHQHUHD]  vQ DPEHOH FD] uri o sporire a ratei dobânzii
FDUH UHGXFH SURJUHVXO LQL LDO DO FHUHULL (VWH FHHD FH VH FKHDP  HIHFW GH HYLF LXQH

ILQDQFLDU 

/D DFHDVW  HYLF LXQH SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO UDWHL GREkQ]LL VH DGDXJ  R HYLF LXQH SULQ

SUH XUL$WXQFLFkQGFHUHUHDFUHúWHUDWDXWLOL] ULLFDSDFLW LORUGHSURGXF LHFUHúWHFHHDFH

JHQHUHD]  FUHúWHUHD SUH XULORU LQIOD LD SULQ FHUHUH 3H GH DOW  SDUWH DFHVW SURFHV

VWLPXOHD] RFXSDUHDúLGHFLUHGXFHUHDúRPDMXOXLFHHDFHDQWUHQHD] IHQRPHQXOFUHúWHULL

salariilor, cu repercusiuni în pUH XUL LQIOD LD SULQ FRVWXUL $FHDVW  FUHúWHUH GH SUH XUL

UHGXFHFHUHUHDDGUHVDW SURGXF WRULORUQD LRQDOLFDXUPDUHDVF GHULLYDORULLERJ LHLFHHD

FH UHGXFH FRQVXPXO PHQDMHORU úL D SLHUGHULL FRPSHWLWLYLW LL H[WHUQH FH GLPLQXHD] 

H[SRUWXULOHúLVSRUHúWHLPSRUWXULOH

ÌQILQHDúDFXPVXV LQHDPPDLvQDLQWHPRGHOHOHQXVXQWSXUNH\QHVLHQHSHQWUXF 

HOHLQFOXGHHIHFWHGHRIHUW GHGRX IHOXUL

- HIHFWHGLUHFWHDOHSURILWXULORUDVXSUDLQYHVWL LLORU
- HIHFWHDOHFRVWXULORUGHSURGXF LHDVXSUDFDSDFLW LLUHQWDELOHúLDVXSUDSUH XULORU
Astfel, într-XQPRGHOSXUNH\QHVLDQRFUHúWHUHDVDODULLORUGHWHUPLQ VSRULUHDFHUHULL
GH R PDQLHU  PDL DPELJX  ÌQ PRGHOHOH HFRQRPHWULFH DFHVW LPSDFW H[SDQVLRQLVW HVWH

FRPSHQVDW GH UHGXFHUHD LQYHVWL LLORU FDUH GLPLQXHD]  SH WHUPHQ OXQJ FDSDFLW LOH GH

SUHGLF LH

$FHDVW  UHGXFHUH D RIHUWHL VSRUHúWH LPSRUWXULOH úL UHGXFH H[SRUWXULOH SH GH R SDUWH

ca urmare a unui HIHFW GH VXEVWLWX LH GLUHFW UH]XOWDW GLQ VHQVLELOLWDWHD FRPHU XOXL H[WHULRU
la tensiunile exercitate asupra capaciW LORU LDU SH GH DOW  SDUWH FD XUPDUH D SLHUGHULL
FRPSHWLWLYLW LLLQGXV GHLQIOD LDFUHDW GHDFHOHDúLWHQVLXQL

*
Vezi Oskar Lange, Cibernetic economic , Editura Didactic .
**
Detalii despre acest efect pot fi identificate În lucrarea “Monetarismul”, Editura Economic , 1996, autori Al.
Tasnadi úi C. Doltu.
 $FHVWHHIHFWHGHRIHUW SRWILvQXQHOHFD]XULPDLSXWHUQLFHGHFkWHIHFWHOHGHFHUHUH

(de exemplu în cazul modelului DMS).

Mecanismele pre]HQWDWH PDL VXV SRW IL UHSUH]HQWDWH VXE IRUPD LQWHUDF LXQLORU GLQWUH
trei blocuri sau trei sectoare (vezi Fig 2.1.).
- VHFWRUXOUHDOvQFDUHVXQWGHWHUPLQDWHFHUHUHDSURGXF LDúLRFXSDUHD
- VSLUDODSUH XUL-salarii;
- VHFWRUXOPRQHWDUúLILQDQFLDU
Primul bloFFHOUHDOGHWHUPLQ YROXPXOSURGXF LHLúLQLYHOXORFXS ULLFDUHH[HUFLW R
LQIOXHQ  DVXSUD SUH XULORU úL VDODULLORU $FHVWHD UHDF LRQHD]  DVXSUD EORFXOXL UHDO SULQ

LQWHUPHGLXO FRPSHWLWLYLW LL úL SXWHULL GH FXPS UDUH D YHQLWXULORU HYLF LXQH SULQ SUH X ri sau
SULQUHWURDF LXQHDSUH XULORUDVXSUDFHUHULL

9HQLWXULOH úL FHUHUHD FRQGL LRQHD]  HFKLOLEUXO PRQHWDU úL ILQDQFLDU úL GHFL UDWD

GREkQ]LL SULQ FHUHUHD GH UHVXUVH ILQDQFLDUH FUHGLW úL PRQHG  0HGLXO LQWHUQD LRQDO úL

politicile economice intervin vQFDGUXOILHF UXLDGLQWUHEORFXULDúDFXPQHLQGLF ILJXUD

3X LQH GLQWUH PRGHOH LQFOXG DOWH ³UHYHQLUL ILQDQFLDUH³ FDUH VH WUDQVPLW SULQ UDWD

GREkQ]LL$FHDVWDUHIOHFW LQVXILFLHQWDGH]YROWDUHDVIHUHORU ILQDQFLDUHvQFDGUXOPRGHOHORU

De fapt recentHOHHYROX LLDOH SLH HLILQDQFLDUH FUHDUHDGHQRLSURGXVH UHGXFHUHD JUDGXOXL

GHLQWHUPHGLHUHDGHSODVDW³QXFOHXO´SLH HORUILQDQFLDUH

În teoria “economiei de împrumut´DFHVWDVHJ VHúWHSLD DFUHGLWXOXLEDQFDUFDUH

HVWH PRGDOLWDWHD HFXD LDO  GH ILQDQ DUH úL D F UHL UDW  D GREkQ]LL MRDF  XQ URO PDMRU vQ

raport cu celelalte rate (spre exemplu la leasing).

Într-R HFRQRPLH GHVLQWHUPHGLDW  FX PDL SX LQL LQWHUPHGLDUL DFHVW QXFOHX VH

VLWXHD]  PDL GHJUDE  SH SLD D WLWOXULORU REOLJD LXQL VDX WLWOXUL DOH SLH HL PRQHWDUH $FHVWHD

VXQW SULQ XUPDUH HOHPHQWHOH GH SRUWRIROLX úL DOH VWUXFWXULL GH vPSUXPXW FDUH GHYLQ

HVHQ LDOHúLvQFRPSRUWDPHQWXOE QFLORUFRPHUFLDOH

Politica bugetar
creútere extern

Sectorul real
Volumul produc iei (Q)

tensiuni
sau evic iunea financiar
retroac iunea financiar

Pre uri externe Spirala

pre uri – salarii retroac iunea pre urilor
cursul de (p – s) sau evic iunea prin
schimb pre uri

Cerere de
resurse
financiare

Sectorul
monetar úi financiar
Rata extern a rata dobânzii (d)
dobânzii
Politica
monetar
Fig. 2 – 1 Structura unui model macroeconomic
 Acest rol al elementelRU SRUWRIROLXOXL LPSOLF  IDSWXO F  VWUXFWXULOH SDWULPRQLDOH

LQIOXHQ HD] vPSUHXQ FXUDWDGREkQ]LLVIHUDUHDO DHFRQRPLHL

7UHEXLH vQ ILQDO V  LQVLVW P SH aspectul dinamic DO LQWHUDF LXQLORU GLQWUH EORFXUL
YH]L ILJ $JHQ LL HFRQRPLFL QX UHDF LRQHD]  LPHGLDW OD YDULD LLOH FDUH vL DIHFWHD] 

([LVW GHFDODMHvQIRUPDUHDDQWLFLSD LLORUGHFDODMHDOHUHDF LLORUHWF

$VWIHO R VF GHUH D YHQLWXULORU PHQDMHORU QX FRQGXFH GHFkW vQ PRG SURJUHVLY OD

reducerea consumului, economisirea jucând pe termen scurt rolul unui tampon. De

DVHPHQHD R DPHOLRUDUH D FRPSHWLWLYLW LL QX vPEXQ W HúWH GHFkW IRDUWH OHQW QLYHOXO

GLPLQXDUHD VROGXOXL QHW DO FRQWXOXL H[WHULRU SHQWUX F  WUHEXLH FD WR L FOLHQ LL VWU LQL V  DIOH

GHDFHVWHDPHOLRU ULSHQWUXD úLVFKLPEDIXUQL]RULLLDUFRPHQ]LOHORUV

- ILHVDWLVI FXWH

$FHDVWD HVWH FDX]D DSDUL LHL ³ curbei J´ DVRFLDW  XQHL GHJUDG UL GH JHQXO 

GHWHULRUDUHD LPHGLDW  D UDWHORU GH VFKLPE QX HVWH FRPSHQVDW  GHFkW SURJUHVLY GH

DPHOLRUDUHDVROGXOXLFRPHU XOXLH[WHULRUvQYROXP

TotodaW  H[LVW  GLQDPLFL QDWXUDOH GH H[HPSOX GLQDPLFD DFXPXO ULL GH FDSLWDO

9HGHPDVWIHOF vQHFXD LLLQWHUYLQQXPHURDVHYDULDELOHFX³ întârzieri”.

$FHDVW  VSHFLILFDUH D HIHFWHORU GLQDPLFH HVWH DGHVHD DUELWUDU  GLQ PRPHQW FH

teoria nu aduce deloc elemente pentru a ghida econometria. Cel mai adesea, natura
GDWHORU QH FRQGXFH OD XQ WLS VDX DOWXO GH VSHFLILFDUH 'HFL YRP XWLOL]D IUHFYHQW GLVWULEX LLOH

patrimoniale – HVWLPDWH SULQ PHWRGD OXL $/021 DVXSUD GDWHORU WULPHVWULDOH úL GLVWULEX LLOH
VXE IRUP  JHRPHWULF  HVWLPDWH SULQ DXWRUHJUHVLH DVXSUD GDWHORU DQXDOH )RUPD

DXWRUHJUHVLY  DGLF  LQWURGXFHUHD GH YDULDELOH HQGRJHQH vQWkU]LDWH SHUPLWH vQ DFHVW XOWLP

FD] V  QH UH]XP P OD R GLVWULEX LH SH WHUPHQ OXQJ HD HVWH WHRUHWLF LQILQLW  vQ DFHDVW 

LSRWH]  úL QX I ace apel decât la un singur decalaj. Vom putea astfel “economisi”
REVHUYD LLOHvQWRWGHDXQDVFXUWHDVXSUDVHULLORUFURQRORJLFHDQXDOH

2GDW IL[DWFDGUXOJHQHUDOúLLQWHUDF LXQLOHSULQFLSDOHFRQVWUXFWRULLGHPRGHOHWUHEXLH

V WUHDF ODPXQFDHFRQRPHWULFLDQXOXLSHQWUXHVWLPDUHDHFXD LLORU

3HQWUX ILHFDUH UHOD LH VXQW GHILQLWH VSHFLILFD LL WHRUHWLFH FDUH WUHEXLH V  YHULILFH

FRHUHQ D GH DQVDPEOX HVWH YRUED GHVLJXU GH FRHUHQ D WHRUHWLF  GHRDUHFH FHD FRQWDELO 

HVWHDVLJXUDW SULQGHILQLUHDFDGUXOXLFRQWDELO .
Tabelul 2
(URULPHGLLDS UXWHvQVLPXODUHD

retrospectivei dinamice a principalelor modele franceze

HURULS WUDWLFHPHGLLvQ

Modele METRIC DMS MOGLI COPAIN OFCE ICARE OFCE

anual trimestrial
Perioade 71 - 76 82 - 64 - 76 70 - 78 74 - 73 - 80 76 – 81
75 80
PIB 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5
Consumul 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.7
menajer
FBCF productive 4.6 4.2 4.9 1.8 2.2 3.3 3.1
FBCF 3.6 5.5 - - 1.4 3.4 3.3
Exporturi 2.0 3.1 4.9 1.5 2.3 1.8 2.0
Importuri 3.3 4.5 4.8 1.7 2.9 2.1 1.6
3UH XULDOH3,% 1.6 2.7 2.9 0.9 1.0 2.4 1.2
Salarii 1.2 2.7 2.8 - 1.2 2.6 1.2
Ocupare 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.35 0.4 0.5
ùRPDM 9.2 13.0 17.3 5.7 16.4 11.4 5.1

([LVW  R LQWHUDF LXQH QHvQFHWDW  vQWUH WHRULH úL HVWLPDUH 'DF  R LSRWH]  WHRUHWLF 

HVWH GHILQLWLY LQILUPDW  GH IDSWH WUHEXLH PRGLILFDW  VFKHPD WHRUHWLF  GH SRUQLUH YHULILFkQG

WRWRGDW  GDF  PRGHOXO U PkQH FRHUHQW vQ DQVDPEOXO V X 1LúWH UH]XOWDWH HFRQRPHWULFH
IDYRUDELOH VHPQH DOH FRHILFLHQ LORU FRQIRUP FX WHRULD QX VXQW R GRYDG  GHFLVLY  vQ

favoarea acesteia ci, diQ FRQWUD QLúWH UH]XOWDWH GHIDYRUDELOH IDF SUHVLXQL SXWHUQLFH vQ
GLUHF LD UHVSLQJHULL WHRULHL ÌQ DFHODúL WLPS vQ FDGUXO PRGHOXOXL QHR NH\QHVLDQ RELúQXLW V
- -a
DMXQV GXS  QXPHURúL DQL GH H[SHULHQ  úL GXS  FRQVWUXLUHD GH QXPHURDVH PRGHOH OD

VSHFLILFD LL care fac obiectul unui larg consens printre modelatori.

)D]DGHDQDOL] DPRGHOHORU

2 SUREOHP U X vQ HOHDV  HVWH IDSWXO F  XQHRUL PRGHOHOH HVWLPDWH XUPHD]  R ID] 

SUHDOXQJ DWHVWHORUGHUREXVWH HDUHDOLVPXOXLUH]XOWDWHORUFDUHSXQVXEVHPQXOvQWUHE ULL

HVWLP ULOH UHDOL]DWH VDX FKLDU IXQGDPHQWHOH WHRUHWLFH $FHDVW  ID]  GH DQDOL]  FRPSRUW 

UHDOL]DUHD XQRU VLPXO UL FDOFXOXO PXOWLSOLFDWRULORU úL YDORULORU SURSULL FHUFHWDUHD VWUXFWXULORU

FDX]DOHDOHPRGHOXOXLFRQIHF LRQDUHDXQRUPDFKHWHUHGXVH .
6 RIHULPvQFRQWLQXDUHFkWHYDLQGLFD LLDVXSUDHOHPHQWHORUPDLLPSRUWDQWH

2GDW  FH PRGHOXO HVWH FRQWXUDW HFXD LLOH DFHVWXLD VXQW DVDPEODWH úL LQWURGXVH vQWU -
R ORJLF  GH UH]ROYDUH FDUH SHUPLWH RE LQHUHD GH VROX LL QXPHULFH DOH PRGHOXOXL UHIHULWRU OD

SHULRDGD GH HVWLPDUH VLPXODUHD GLQDPLF  SHQWUX D YHGHD vQ FH P VXU  HO UHSURGXFH

corect realitatea.
ÌQILQHHURULOHRE LQXWHvQFDGUXODFHVWHLVLPXO ULGLIHU GHHURULOHREVHUYDWHvQFDGUXO

HVWLP ULLHFRQRPHWULFHDYDULDELOHORUHQGRJHQHGLQFHOSX LQGRX PRWLYH

a) OXDUHDvQFRQVLGHUDUHDVLPXOWDQHLW LL
b) FDUDFWHUXOGLQDPLFDOVLPXO ULL
În general, modelele sunt estimate prin metode econometrice simple : metoda celor
PDL PLFL S WUDWH 0&003 VDX vQ XQHOH FD]XUL PHWRGH PDL VRILVWLFDWH SHQWUX JUXSXUL

miFL GH HFXD LL $FHDVWD vQVHDPQ  F  VLPXOWDQHLW LOH IDSWXO F  R YDULDELO  DSDUH XQHRUL

H[SOLFDW vQWU-RHFXD LHúLH[SOLFDWLY vQDOWDQXVXQWOXDWHvQFRQVLGHUDUH

3H GH DOW  SDUWH vQ FDGUXO ID]HL GH HVWLPDUH YDULDELOHOH HQGRJHQH UHWDUGDWH VXQW

considHUDWH HJDOH FX YDORDUHD ORU LVWRULF  ÌQ FDGUXO VLPXO ULL GLQDPLFH DFHVWHD VXQW GLQ

FRQWU YDORULOHFDOFXODWHSHQWUXSHULRDGDSUHFHGHQW XWLOL] ULLORU

9RP REVHUYD F  vQ FDGUXO VLPXO ULL GLQDPLFH D PRGHOXOXL vQ DQVDPEOXO V X XQXO

sau altul din factori FRQGXF OD R FUHúWHUH D DPSOLWXGLQLL HURULORU 7DEHOXO  QH RIHU  R LGHH
asupra acestor erori pentru principalele modele franceze. Amplitudinea erorilor depinde de
SHULRDGDGHVLPXODUHGHQXP UXOPDLPDUHVDXPDLPLFDOYDULDELOHORUHQGRJHQHSHFDUH

le cRQ LQHPRGHOXO
(URDUHD PHGLH vQ YDORDUH DEVROXW  FX SULYLUH OD SUH XUL FRQVXP 3,% HVWH VXE 

LDU FHD SULYLWRDUH OD LQYHVWL LL úL FRPHU  H[WHULRU vQ YHFLQ WDWHD OXL  6H RIHU  DVWIHO R

LQGLFD LH DVXSUD PDUMHL GH HURDUH vQ SURFHVXO XWLOL] ULL PRGHOH lor pe termen mediu. Aceste
HURUL VXQW FkWHRGDW  SUHD VODEH XQHRUL GH GRX  VDX GH WUHL RUL PDL VODEH vQ XWLOL]DUHD ORU

SH WHUPHQ VFXUW FXP DSDU HOH vQ VLPXO ULOH VWDWLVWLFH DOH PRGHOHORU SH SHULRDGD ORU GH

estimare.
Într-un model anual, simularea static FRQVW vQSOHFDUHDvQILHFDUHDQGHODYDORULOH

REVHUYDWH DOH YDULDELOHORU HQGRJHQH GLQ DQLL SUHFHGHQ L úL QX GH OD YDORULOH FDOFXODWH FHHD

FHHOLPLQ DVWIHOHURULOHGDWRUDWHFDUDFWHUXOXLGLQDPLFDOUHOD LLORU

$FHVWH UH]XOWDWH DUDW  F  QX WUHEXLH V  QH DúWHSW P OD HYDOX UL SUHFLVH úL

LQGLVFXWDELOH GH OD PRGHOH úL F  XQ HFDUW GH XQ SURFHQW vQ SUHYL]LXQL HVWH GH GRPHQLXO

incertitudinii inerente acestui instrument.

$FHVW WHVW vQ VLPXODUH UHWURVSHFWLY  HVWH QHFHVDU GDU QX UHSUH]LQW  GHFkW XQ

element minoU DO DQDOL]HL XQXL PRGHO )D]D FHD PDL LPSRUWDQW  HVWH FHD GH FDOFXO D

PXOWLSOLFDWRULORU VDX UHDOL]DUHD YDULDQWHORU úL FkWHRGDW  D YDORULORU SURSULL FDUDFWHULVWLFLOH

GLQDPLFLL PRGHOXOXL $FHVWH FDOFXOH SHUPLW DQDOL]DUHD U VSXQVXULORU PRGHOXOXL OD úRFXU i
WUDQVPLVHFXDMXWRUXOYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQHSROLWLF HFRQRPLF PHGLXLQWHUQD LRQDO

&HO PDL vQWkOQLW GLQWUH PXOWLSOLFDWRUL FDUH H[SOLF  DFHVW QXPH HVWH efectul de
FUHúWHUH D FKHOWXLHOLORU SXEOLFH 7RDWH PRGHOHOH GDX U VSXQVXUL IRDUWH DVHP Q WRDUH OD

DFHDVW  FUHúWHUH  VSRUXO GH SURGXF LH HVWH FXSULQV vQWUH R GDW  VDX GH GRX  RUL VXPD

FKHOWXLHOLORUVXSOLPHQWDUHvQFXUVXO SULPXOXL DQDSRL DFHVWDVHPLFúRUHD] GDWRULW FUHúWHULL

LQGXVHDSUH XULORUHIHFWXOPXOWLSOLFDWRUGHSLQGHGHvQFOLQD LDPDUJLQDO  spre importuri, deci

într-XQ JUDG PDL PLF VDX PDL PDUH GH GHVFKLGHUH D HFRQRPLHL F WUH VFKLPEXULOH

LQWHUQD LRQDOH $FHDVW  VLPLOLWXGLQH SRDWH vQVHPQD XQ FRQVHQV DVXSUD HIHFWHORU SROLWLFLORU

EXJHWDU  úL ILVFDO  VDX FRQIRUPLVPXO PRGHODWRULORU FDUH vúL UHY G PRGHOHOH SkQ  FkQG

multiplicatorulVHDVHDP Q FXFHOGLQPRGHOHOHH[LVWHQWH

(VWHFODUF UH]XOWDWXOPXOWLSOLFDWRULORUFRQGXFHGHVHRULODUHYHQLUHDDVXSUDVWUXFWXULL

úLHVWLP ULLHFXD LLORUPRGHOXOXL

'LYHUJHQ HOH VXQW PDL SXWHUQLFH SHQWUX FHLODO L PXOWLSOLFDWRUL vQ VSHFLDO SHQWUX F 

LQWHUYLQHFHDPDLPDUHVDXFHDPDLPLF LQWHQVLWDWHDHIHFWHORURIHUWHL

$VWIHO vQ SULPHOH YHUVLXQL DOH PRGHOHORU 0(75,& U VSXQGHD OD R FUHúWHUH H[RJHQ  D

salariilor printr-R FUHúWHUH D FHUHULL D LQYHVWL LLORU D SURGXF LHL úL D DQJDM ULL HIHFWXO

GH]YROW ULL GHEXúHHORU DQWLFLSDWH GHS úLQG FHO DO VF GHULL SURILWXULORU vQ WLPS FH U VSXQVXO

lui DMS era invers.

(VWH LQWHUHVDQW GH REVHUYDW F  úL XQXO úL FHO ODOW GLQ U VSXQVXUL HUDX UD LRQDOH  vQ

cadrul METRIC, întreprindHULOH DQWLFLSDX XQ SOXV GH FHUHUH úL GH SURILW vQ FDGUXO '06 –
HYROX LL LQYHUVH FDUH VH UHDOL]DX vQ FHOH GRX  FD]XUL $FHDVWD DUDW  F  QX QH SXWHP

DúWHSWD OD XQ U VSXQV QHHFKLYRF GLQ SDUWHD PRGHOHORU FKLDU GDF  VWUXFWXUD ORU WHRUHWLF 

HVWH DSURSLDW  WRW DWkWHD UHDOL] UL SUDFWLFH SRUQLQG GH OD DFHHDúL VWUXFWXU  WHRUHWLF  SH

câteva valori pentru multiplicatori.

7UHEXLHGHFLV úWLPDXWLOL]DDFHVWHYDQWDLGHU VSXQVXULSHQWUXDFXU DGRPHQLXO

FHORU SRVLELOH 'DU FHO PDL LPSRUWDQW HVWH V  SXWHP DWULEXL GLIHUHQ H SUHFLVH HFDUWXULORU

vQWUH PRGHOH UH]XOWkQG GLQ DSUHFLHULOH GLIHULWH DOH FRPSRUWDPHQWHORU úL QX GLQ ULVFXULOH GH

VSHFLILFD LH úL GH HVWLPDUH ÌQ DFHVW FD] LQIRUPD LD IXUQL]DW  YD IL IRDUWH ERJDW  SHQWUX F 

UH]XOWDWXO XQHL FXWDUH VDX FXWDUH P VXUL GH SROLWLF  HFRQRPLF  YD SXWHD IL UHODWLYL]DW  vQ

IXQF LHGHLSRWH]HOHI FXWHDVXSUDFRPSRUWDPHQWHORU

ÌQ PRGXO 0(75,& R FUHúWHUH D FKHOWXLHOLORU SXEOLFH DUH XUP WRUXO LPSDFW FRQVXPXO

PHQDMHORU VSRUHúWH OHQW GLQ FDX]D LQHU LHL VDOH SURSULL úL D vQWk rzierilor de anticipare a
YHQLWXULORU VWRFXULOH úL LQYHVWL LLOH vQWUHSULQGHULORU UHDF LRQHD]  GXS  efectul de
accelerator FUHVF IRDUWH WDUH LQL LDO GDWRULW  YDULD LHL SURGXF LHL DSRL VH VWDELOL]HD] 

H[SRUWXULOHVXQWXúRUUHGXVHSULQFUHúWHUHDUDWHLGHXWLOL]DUHDFDSDFLW LORU

2 FRPSDUD LH vQWUH PXOWLSOLFDWRULL FKHOWXLHOLORU SXEOLFH DOH GLIHULWHORU PRGHOH

WULPHVWULDOúL DQXDOHIUDQFH]H0(75,& 3,7,67$5'06'(&$ úLDPHULFDQH PRGHOH

%URRNLQV :KDUWRQ '5, 036 02(0 +& %($ SXQ vQ HYLGHQ  FX H[FHS LD PRGXOXL

DWLSLF DO % QFLL )HGHUDOH GH 5H]HUYH GLQ 6DLQW /RXLV UH]XOWDWH IRDUWH DSURSLDWH FUHúWHUHD

SURJUHVLY  D PXOWLSOLFDWRUXOXL XUPDW  GH GLPLQXDUHD GDWRUDW  LQIOD LHL LQGXVH úL SLHUGHULORU

din competitivitate (rezultând din ipoteza cursului GH VFKLPE IL[ GLYHUJHQ  IUHFYHQW  SH

WHUPHQOXQJFH LQHvQVSHFLDOGHVSHFLILFDUHDEXFOHLVSLUDOHLSUH XUL – salarii.

2.1.4. Utilizarea modelelor

3ULPD GLUHF LH GH XWLOL]DUH HVWH DQDOL]D P VXULORU GH SROLWLF  HFRQRPLF  YDULD LLORU

mediului economic WUHFXWH VDX SUH]HQWH 0HWRGRORJLD FDUH HVWH HYRFDW  SHQWUX

PXWLSOLFDWRULVHUHIHU ODIDSWXOF VXQWVWXGLDWHDEDWHULOHLQGXVHGHDFHVWHP VXULvQUDSRUW

FXRYDULD LHVLPXODW GHUHIHULQ QXPLW ³nucleu central”.

$ GRXD GLUHF LH D XWLOL] ULL YL]HD]  HIectuarea de previziuni. Prin urmare, modelul

WUHEXLH I FXW V  IXQF LRQH]H SHQWUX SHULRDGHOH YLLWRDUH SOHFkQG GH OD LQIRUPD LLOH

FXQRVFXWH3HQWUXDFHDVWDYRUILSDUFXUVHXUP WRDUHOHHWDSH

a) IRUPXODUHD GH LSRWH]H DVXSUD HYROX LHL YLLWRDUH D YDULDELOHORU H[RJ ene ale
PRGHOXOXL GH H[HPSOX FKHOWXLHOL SXEOLFH UDWD ILVFDOLW LL SUH XO PDWHULLORU
 SULPH FHUHUHD SH SODQ PRQGLDO LQIOD LD SH SODQ PRQGLDO FXUVXO GH

schimb, etc.);
b) H[DPLQDUHDIXQF LRQ ULLHFXD LLORUPRGHOXOXLvQSHULRDGHOHUHFHQWH
c) prelungirea sau aQXODUHD HFDUWXULORU GLQWUH HYROX LD REVHUYDW  úL FHD

VLPXODW SHED]DHFXD LLORUPRGHOXOXL

ÌQ ILQH XWLOL]DWRULL PRGHOHORU SRW PRGLILFD FRQVWDQWHOH HFXD LLORU vQ UDSRUW GH YDORULOH

estimate.
Aceasta permite, pe de o parte, realizarea unui “calaj automat”, altfel spus de a
IDFHV FRLQFLG YDORULOHVLPXODWHSHED]DPRGHOXOXLFXYDORULOHREVHUYDWHSHQWUXvQWUHJXO

DQVDPEOX GH YDULDELOH HQGRJHQH UHIHULWRDUH OD GDWH UHFHQWH LDU SH GH DOW  SDUWH GH D

schimba valorile simulate în previziuni.

(VWH FODU F  GDF  R HFXD LH UHSURGXFH JUHúLW WUHFXWXO DSURSLDW HD WUHEXLH ILH

UHHVWLPDW  ILH IXQGDPHQWDO PRGLILFDW  2 SUREOHP  VH SXQH PDL GHJUDE  SHQWUX HFXD LLOH

FDUH QX VXIHU  SUHD WDUH GH LQIOXHQ D HURULORU úL FDUH VXQW FRQVHUYDWH FD DWDUH vQ FDGUXO

modelului.
TeoUHWLFHURULOHGHSUHYL]LXQHVXQWGHGRX IHOXUL
a) erorile previzionistului asupra variabilelor exogene;
b) erorile datorate modelului.
ÌQ DFHVW XOWLP FD] LQkQG VHDPD GH FHHD FH QRL GRULP V  VSXQHP SUHYL]LRQLVWXO

LQWHUYLQHvQHJDO P VXU SULQSUHOXQJLUHDY ariabilelor-ecart (întârziate).

3ULQFLSDOD VXUV  GH HURDUH DVXSUD YDULDELOHORU H[RJHQH VH UHIHU  OD PHGLXO

LQWHUQD LRQDO 'H H[HPSOX HO UHSUH]LQW  vQ PHGLH SHVWH  GLQ HURULOH GH SUHYL]LXQH SH

WHUPHQVFXUWDOHHFRQRPLHLIUDQFH]H7DEHOXOSUH]LQW SUHYL]LXQHDSHWHUPHQVFXUWUHDOL]DW 

GHF WUH2)&(vQRFWRPEULHSHQWUXDQXOFXDMXWRUXOPRGHOXOXL2)&( – annual.

5HODQVDUHD HFRQRPLHL DPHULFDQH úL FUHúWHUHD GRODUXOXL DX IRVW SURIXQG

VXEHVWLPDWHDVWIHOF VSRULUHD3,% XOXLDúWHSWDWSHQWUXDIR

- st de 0.7% în loc de 1.7%
SRWULYLWFRQWXULORUDQXDOHSURYL]RULLDDQXOXLSXEOLFDWHvQLXQLHúLGHSRWULYLW

conturilor trimestriale provizorii publicate în iulie 1985. În cadrul acestora volumele au fost
H[SULPDWH vQ SUH XUL DOH DQXOXL  &RQWXULOH ILQDOH vQ SUH XULOH DQXOXL  SXEOLFDWH vQ

 vQ FDGUXO UDSRUWXOXL DVXSUD DVXSUD FRQWXULORU QD LRQDOH DOH DQXOXL  FRQGXFHDX OD

RFUHúWHUHGH

Tabelul 3
,PSDFWXOHURULORUGHSUHYL]LXQHDVXSUDPHGLXOXLLQWHUQD LRQDO

în cadrul previziunii OFCE din octombrie 1983 pentru anul 1984

Previziune Previziune Conturile 5HDOL] UL Conturi

octombrie octombrie 1983 anuale conturi finale
Specificare 1983 FRULMD LGLQ provizorii trimestriale ED] 

ED]  mediul ED]  provizorii 1980

LQWHUQD LRQDO 1970 ED] 

ED] 

5DWDFUHúWHULLvQYROXP

- PIB 0.7 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.2

- Importuri 1.0 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.7
- Exporturi 4.1 8.0 6.9 6.7 7.0
Sold exterior (mld FF) din -15 -17 -18
care:
- eroare asupra $ +20 0
- eroare asupra cererii -18 0
mondiale
-DO LIDFWRUL -1 -1
Sursa: Montenau, Must, Sterdyniak – &RQVLGHUD LLDVXSUDPHWRGHORUGHSUHYL]LXQH
Revista OFCE, octombrie 1985
 3URLHF LD YDULDELOHORU GH HFDUW MRDF  XQ URO LPSRUWDQW vQ SUHYL]LXQLOH HFRQRPHWULFH

Ce s IDFHPGHIDSWFXHFDUWXULOHREVHUYDWHSHSHULRDGDFXUHQW "$UWUHEXLV OHDQXO P

VDX V  OH SUHOXQJLP vQ SUHYL]LXQH" ÌQ WHRULH GDF  UHOD LD HFRQRPHWULF  FRUHVSRQGHQW  QX

LQFOXGH DXWRFRUHODUHD UH]LGXXULORU FHD PDL EXQ  SUHYL]LXQH D YDORULL YLLWRDUH H erorilor
HFXD LHLHVWH]HURúLHVWHGHFLFRQYHQDELOV DQXO PYDULDELOHOH – ecart pentru viitor. Dar,
DQXOkQG HFDUWXO LQL LDO vQWkU]LHUHD LQL LDO  HYROX LD P ULPLL SUHYL]LRQDWH ULVF V  FXQRDVF 

R HYROX LH FRQWUDGLFWRULH 3UHYL]LRQLVWXO YD IL SULQ XUPDUH VWLPXODW V  FRUHFWH]H YDORULOH

VLPXODWH FX DMXWRUXO HFXD LHL vQ DFHODúL VHQV FX YDORDUHD REVHUYDW  FKLDU GDF  QX DUH XQ

IXQGDPHQW WHRUHWLF SHQWUX DFHDVWD GH PDQLHU V  DMXVWH]H HYROX LD SUHY ]XW  GH F WUH

model. În anumite cazuri, previzionistul diVSXQHGHLQIRUPD LLvQ DIDUDPRGHOXOXL ILH DVXSUD

FDX]HORUHURULLFRPLVHGHF WUHUHOD LDHFRQRPHWULF JUHYHH[SRUWXULH[FHS LRQDOHFRQGL LL

FOLPDWLFHFULWHULLIRDUWHIDYRUDELOHDOHFUHGLWXOXLFRPHUFLDOFRQWUROXOSUH XULORUVDXVDODULLORU

fie asupra HYROX LHL YLLWRDUH D YDULDELOHL FRQVLGHUDWH DQFKHWH GH FRQMXQFWXU  S UHUL DOH

H[SHU LORU VDX LQIRUPD LL H[RJHQH DVXSUD PDULORU FRQWUDFWH VDX OLYU ULOH OXL $LUEXV FDUH

intervin ca exemple pentru simularea exporturilor.

În orice caz, din timp în timp, trebuie alese valorile viitoare ale constantelor
HFXD LLORU GHFL ³variabilele – ecart” I U  PXOWH LQIRUPD LL vQ VSHFLDO DVXSUD ED]HL

YHURVLPLOLW LLJOREDOHDSUHYL]LXQLL

7DEHOXO  DUDW  F  vQO WXUDW  ILLQG HURDUHD GH SUHYL]LXQH DVXSUD PHGLXOXL

interna LRQDO SUHYL]LXQHD UHDOL]DW  SH RFWRPEULH D GHYHQLW IRDUWH DSURSLDW  GH P ULPLOH

realizate.
6ROGXOH[WHULRUQXHUDPRGLILFDWGLQPRPHQWFHFHOHGRX HURULGHSUHYL]LXQHDVXSUD

GRODUXOXLúLDVXSUDFUHúWHULLPRQGLDOHVHFRPSHQVDXDSURDSHH[DFWvQSUHYL]LXQ e.
Tabelul 4
Rolul variabilelor ecart
(previziune pentru rata salariilor în 1984)
1983 1983 1983 1983 1984 1984 1984 1984 1984
I II III IV I II III IV în glisaj
Simulare export 2.75 2.8 2.55 2.4 2.15 2.0 1.75 1.65 7.8
Variabile de ecart obs. 0.6 -0.2 -0.05 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -1.2
Evaluare obs. 3.35 2.5 2.5 2.1 1.75 1.5 1.65 1.55 6.6
Simulare în iunie 84 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 7.8
Variabile ecart previzionate -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -1.6
Previziune 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 6.1

Cu titlu de exemplu, SUH]HQW P vQ 7DEHOXO  SUHYL]LXQHD VDODULXOXL SHQWUX 

UHDOL]DW vQFXUVXODQXOXLLXQLHSHED]DUHOD LLORUPRGHOXOXL2)&(– trimestrial. În iunie

1984, momentul la care s-D UHDOL]DW SUHYL]LXQHD HYROX LD UDWHL VDODULXOXL D SXWXW IL HVWLPDW 
doar pe primul trimestru din an. Compararea valorilor estimate SULQ UHOD LD HFRQRPHWULF 
(linia 1 din tabelul 3) cu cele observateOLQLDGHWHUPLQ DSDUL LDXQXLHFDUWXQHLDEDWHUL
VLVWHPDWLFFHVHFLIUHD] ODvQXOWLPXOWULPHVWUXGLQúLOD –0.4% în primul trimestru

al anului 1984 (linia 2). Acest ecart este atribuit previzionistului ocupat de politica de
GH]LQGH[DUHFRRUGRQDW GHJXYHUQúLFDUHWUHEXLDPHQ LQXW SHvQWUHJDQXO

Ca urmare a acestui fapt, s-D FRUHFWDW HYROX LD VLPXODW  SUin model pentru ultimele
trei trimestre ale anului 1984 (linia 4) printr-R YDULDELO  - HFDUW HJDO  FX –0.4% pe trimestru
OLQLD  3UHYL]LXQHD SULQ SUHOXQJLUHD HYROX LHL VDODULXOXL SHQWUX  OLQLD  HVWH GHFL GH

 vQ ORF GH  UH]XOW  GLQ VLPXODUHD PRGHOXOXL I U  YDULDELOD – ecart. În realitate
HYROX LD REVHUYDW  D IRVW PDL SXWHUQLF  GHFkW FHD SUHY ]XW    úL GLQ DFHDVW  FDX] 

PDL SX LQ vQGHS UWDW  GH VLPXODUHD UHOD LHL HFRQRPHWULFH  vQ DO L WHUPHQL FRUHF LD D IRVW

IRDUWHSXWHUQLF 

TotodaW  SUHYL]LXQHD FRUHFWDW  HVWH PDL EXQ  GHFkW VLPXODUHD EUXW  D UHOD LHL

econometrice (subestimarea de 0.5% în loc de o supraestimare de 1,2%).

6WXGLLOH UHWURVSHFWLYH SXUWDWH DVXSUD SUHYL]LXQLORU DUDW F  DGHY UDWHOH FDX]H DOH
erorilor de previziune, sunWSULQXUPDUHHURULDVXSUDHYROX LHLYDULDELOHORUH[RJHQHDVXSUD
valorii variabilelor-HFDUWúLvQILQHSURDVWDVSHFLILFDUHVDXYDORDUHDHVWLPDW D SDUDPHWULORU
modelului. Responsabilitatea erorilor cade mai mult pe utilizatorul modelului decât pe
instrXPHQWXO vQV úL 3RVLELOLWDWHD GH PRGLILFDUH DVWIHO D UH]XOWDWHORU SH ED]D LQWXL LLORU
LQIRUPD LLORU úL H[SHULHQ HL HFRQRPLVWXOXL FD úL D QLYHOXOXL PHQ LRQDW PDL VXV DO HURULORU GH

VLPXODUH UHWURVSHFWLY  LQGLF  IDSWXO F  R SUHYL]LXQH QX UH]XOW  QLFLRGDW direct din
IXQF LRQDUHDXQXLPRGHO

0RGHOXO SHUPLWH FRHUHQ D HFRQRPLF  úL FRQWDELO  IXUQL]HD]  GLUHF LD GH HYROX LH

UHOHY SUREOHPHOH HVHQ LDOHGH]HFKLOLEUHGHILFLWHGDUvQQLFLXQFD]QXvQORFXLHúWHPXQFD

GHH[SHUWL] DHFRQRPLVWXOXLSURIHVLRQLVW

'XS  FH DP RIHULW FkWHYD LQGLFD LL DVXSUD FRQ LQXWXOXL PRGHOHORU D PHWRGHORU GH

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2.1. Critica modHO ULLHFRQRPHWULFHWUDGL_LRQDOH

ÌQ SDUDJUDIHOH DQWHULRDUH DP Y ]XW GHMD XQ PDUH QXP U GH OLPLWH úL LQVDWLVIDF LL

legate de modele :
- FRPSRUWDPHQWQXvQWRWGHDXQDMXVWLILFDWGHF WUHRWHRULHXQLILFDW úLULJXURDV 
- metode econometrice simpliste;
- HVWLP UL Dle comportamentelor medii care pot fi foarte diferite de
comportamentul cel mai realist, verosimil în fiecare moment;
- LQFHUWLWXGLQL úL GLYHUJHQ H UHIHULWRDUH OD IUHFYHQ HOH UHODWLYH DOH HIHFWHORU
contradictorii;
- ULVFXULvQVSHFLILFDUHDúLHVWLPDUHDHFRQRPHWULF 
- imprecizia efectelor dinamice;
- DPSOLWXGLQHD HURULORU GH SUHYL]LXQH úL LPSRUWDQ D FRUHF LLORU DGXVH UH]XOWDWHORU
spontane ale modelelor.
7RDWH DFHVWH FULWLFL VH UHIHU  vQ IDSW OD LPSHUIHF LXQHD PRGHOHORU VWDWLVWLFH VDX OD

OLSVD GH H[SHULHQ  D PRGHODWRULORU FDUH JUHúHVF vQ HWDSD GH VSHFLILFDUH D PRGHOXOXL

econometric).
Vom aborda în continuare cele mai des întâlnite critici.

2.2.1. 5HSUH]HQWDUHDDQWLFLSD LLORU

ÌQ FDGUXO PRGHOHORU RELúQXLWH DQWLFLS ULOH GH YHQLWXUL vQ HFXD LD FRQVXPXOXL GH

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reprezentate printr-RFRPELQD LHGHYDORULFXUHQWHúLWUHFXWHDOHYDULDELOHORUGHDQWLFLSDWvQ

DIDU GHFD]XULOHUDUHvQFDUHXWLOL] PRPHWRG GLUHFW  SHED]D XQRU SDFKHWH ale acestor
*
DQWLFLS UL .

$FHVWHDDFRSHU XUP WRDUHDWLSRORJLH

a) DQWLFLS ULOHQDLYHH[WUDSRODUHDXQRUYDORULREVHUYDWHvQSUH]HQW

b) DQWLFLS ULOH DGDSWLYH DQWLFLSD LLOH VXQW FRUHFWDWH LQkQG VHDPD GH HURULOH GH

DQWLFLSD LHFRPLVHvQSHULRDGHOHSUHFHGHQWH );
c) DQWLFLS ULOHH[WUDSRODWLYHYDULD LLOHFXUHQWHVXQWSUHOXQJLWH

d) DQWLFLS ULOH UD LRQDOH FRQVLGHUDWH FHOH PDL EXQH SUHYL]LXQL DOH YDULDELOHL

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disponibile).
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H[SOLFDWLYH GHFkW YDORULOH VDOH WUHFXWH vQ DFHVW XOWLP FD] HOH QX GLIHU  GH DQWLFLS ULOH

adoptive sau extrapolative).

*
Câteva exemple vor fi dezvoltate la seminarii (modelele Friedman úi Lucas).
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punctele de LQIOH[LXQH ÌQ UHYDQú LSRWH]D DQWLFLS ULORU UD LRQDOH HVWH GHVWXO GH GHVYDOLGDW 

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adesea, variabilele endogene depind intr-R PDQLHU  FRPSOH[  SULQ LQWHUPHGLXO IRUPHL
reduse a modelului) de ansamblul variabilei exogene. Rezolvarea modelului, în ipoteza
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viitoare (prin mecanisme de anticipare).

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intertemporal. 'DF  HúWL DQXQ DW  úL FUH]XW  R UHGXFHUH D LPSR]LWHORU SHQWUX DQXO

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pentru a demonstra ineficacitatea politicilor economice anticipate, într-un model unde

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'DF  R SROLWLF  GH H[HPSOX R H[SDQVLXQH PRQHWDU  HVWH DQWLFLSDW  UD LRQDO HD

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reduce anticipãrile infla LHL DXWRULW LOH GHFODU  F  YRU SURPRYD DQXO YLLWRU R SROLWLF 

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-  DQWLFLS ULOH

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un efect.

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vQSDUWLFXODUQXHVWHVLJXUF FHHDFHHVWHFRQVLGHUDWGUHSWYDULDELO H[RJHQ LQWU -un model
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(testele de cauzalitate "a la Sims”). Este YRUED GH D QH vQWUHED GDF  LQRYD LLOH XQHL

YDULDELOH DVWIHO VSXV SDUWHD GLQ HYROX LD VD FH QX HVWH LPSOLFDW  GH F WUH HYROX LD VD OHQW 

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unei variabile. DaF  HVWH FD]XO SULPD YDULDELO  R GHWHUPLQ  SH D GRXD úL SXWHP UH LQH

DFHDVW FDX]DOLWDWHSHQWUXDFRQVWLWXLVFKHPDWHRUHWLF FHVXV LQHPRGHOXO

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SHQWUX FDUH V  ILP VLJXUL F  VFKHPHOH H[SOLFDWLYH GH FDX zalitate) sunt conform cu
UHDOLWDWHDHFRQRPLF 

0RGHOHOH GH WLS 99$ VXQW LQVWUXPHQWH GH WLS FXWLH QHDJU  DGLF  QX GHVFULX GH

PDQLHU  VWUXFWXUDO  FRPSRUWDPHQWHOH  FHHD FH SHUPLWH HIHFWXDUHD GH SUHYL]LXQL SUHFLVH

pe termen foarte scurt. Pe un termen mai OXQJ PRGHOHOH VWUXFWXUDOH vúL UHGREkQGHVF vQ
acest domeniu un net avantaj.

)XQF LDGHUHDF LHDDXWRULW LORUúLFULWLFDOXL/XFDV

ÌQ FHD PDL PDUH SDUWH D PRGHOHORU GHFL]LLOH DXWRULW LORU UHSUH]HQWDWH GH F WUH

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comportament. Printre altele, deciziile bugetare, fiscale, care sunt introduse intr-un proiect
deOHJHDEXJHWXOXLúLGHFL DSDUHYLGHQWFDYDULDELOH H[RJHQHGLQFRQWUDGHFL]LLOHE QFLORU
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al comportamentul
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$FHDVWD VXEOLQLD] F  FRHILFLHQ LL IXQF LLORU GH FRPSR rtament a sectorului privat nu
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2.4. Modele econometrice cu regimuri multiple.

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"dezechilibru" sau de "echilibru non-walrasian" permit tocmai luarea în considerare a

DFHVWXL IHQRPHQ 'HDOWIHO GH]YROWDUHD PHWRGHORU HFRQRPHWULFH UHDOL]DW  vQ DFHúWL XOWLPL
ani a permis estimarea unor astfel de modele, fie pentru un comportament particular, fie
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