JOB OFFERS Robin Pinelli is considering three job offers. In trying to decide which to accept, Robin has concluded that three objectives are important in this, decision. First, of course, is to maximize disposable income—the amount left after paying for housing, util s, taxes, and other necessities. Second, Robin wants to spend more time in cold weather climates enjoying winter sports. The third objective relates to the quality of the community. Being single, Robin would like to live in a city with a lot of activities and a large population of single professionals. Developing attributes for these three objectives turns out to be relatively straightforward. Disposable income can be measured directly by calculating monthly takehome pay minus average monthly rent (being careful to include utilities) for an appropriate apartment, The second attribute is annual attribute, Robin has located a magazine survey of large cities that scores those cities as places for single professionals to live, Although the survey is not perfect from Robin's point of view, it does capture the main elements of her concern about the quality of the singles community and available activities, Also, all three of the cities under consideration are included in the survey. Here are descriptions of the three job offers: MPR Manufacturing in Flagstaff, Arizona. Dis- posable income estimate: $1,600 per month. Snowfall range: 150 to 320 cm per year. Magazine score: 50 (out of 100). Madison Publishing in St. Paul, Minnesota. Dis posable income estimate: $1,300 to $1,500 pet ‘month. (The uncertainty here is because Robin knows there is a wide variety in apartment rental prices and will not know what is appropriate a™ available until spending some time in the city:)igure 4.47 Robin Pinell's decision tree. Pandemonium Para Snowtall range: 100 to 400 em per year. Magazine | score: 75. 43, Pandemonium Pizza in San Francisco, California, Disposable income estimate: $1,200 per month. Snowfall range: negligible. Magazine score: 95, Robin has created the decision tree in Figure 44710 ‘epeesent the situation. The uncertainty about snowall and disposable income are represented bythe chance nodes as Robin has inchaded them in the tee. The ratings in the ‘consequence matrix are such thar che worst consequence hasa rating of vero points end the best has 100, Questions 1. Verify that che satings inthe consequence matrix are proportional scores (i that they were cau lated the same way we calculated the ratings for salary in the summer-fun example inthe chapeer) 2. Comment on Robin's choice of annual snow: fall as a measure forthe col weather-winter-sports attribute. Is this a good measure? Why or why not? 3. After considering the situation, Robin ‘concludes that the quality of the city is most case Studies 173 Dieonale yee ss 3s 9% a ne ss 3s 9 56 sm (6 w os oo | wm ss 0 | mm o 0 10 important, the amount of snowfall is next, and the third is income. (Income is Important, but the difference between $1,200 and $1,600 is nor enough for income to be ‘more important in this context.) Furthermore, Robin concludes that the weight for the ‘magazine rating in the consequence matrix should be 1.5 times the weight for the snow- fall rating and theee times as much as the ‘weight for the income rating. Use this information to calculate the weights for the three attributes and to calculate overall scores for all of the end branches in the decision 4. Analyze the decision tree using expected values. Calculate expected values forthe three measures as well as forthe overall score. 5. Do risk-profile analysis of the three ities. Create risk profiles for each of the three attributes as well as for the overall score. Does any additional insight arise from this analysis? 6. What do you think Robin should do? Why?