What is a reasons for vol to increase

Vol is the brother of credit

And vol is driven by regime shifts in the credit cycle.

If we just think fundamentally about what vol is. Vol is derived from an option on shareholder equity.
But equity itself can be thought of as a perpetual option on the future success of a company so when
times are good and credit is easy a company can rely on the extension of very cheap debt rather than
equity to support its operations and as a result of that cheap credit makes the value of equity less
volatile.

So if you want to see what is going to cause a vol regime shift, you have to look at what is going to cause
a regime shift in credit – tightening of credit conditions. Right now we are not seeing enough tightening
in credit conditions to warrant higher vol. It is that simple.