Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Economics
MC curve intersects both ATC and AVC at their minimum points
When MC < AVC, AVC will be decreasing
When MC > AVC, AVC will be increasing
o Long-run efficient scale
Economies of scale – decreasing long-run average cost
Diseconomies of scale – increasing long-run average cost
Market Structures
- Perfect competition
- Monopolistic competition
o Hybrid of strong competition and some monopoly-like conditions
o Most distinctive factor is product differentiation
When price level increases, given fixed nominal money supply, real money
supply decreases, LM curve shifts to the left, real interest rate increases and
income (output) decreases
- Aggregate supply curve
o Very short run aggregate supply – horizontal
o Short run aggregate supply – upward-sloping
Input prices do not fully adjust to the price level in the short run
Closer to LRAS (steeper) if higher extent to adjust to price level
o Long run aggregate supply – vertical
Y (L, K)
L = labour supply
K = capital stock
Fixed labour supply and capital stock in the long run
Full employment level (natural level of output)
Macro economy is operating at an efficient and unconstrained level
Resources are deemed fully employed
Companies have enough spare capacity to avoid bottlenecks
Unemployment is at its natural rate – modest pool of unemployed workers
(job seekers = job vacancies) looking for and transiting into new jobs
- Economic growth
o Production function
Y = AF (L, K)
A = technology/total factor productivity: output for given inputs
L = labour supply
K = capital stock
Diminishing marginal productivity of labour and capital
Long-term sustainable growth cannot rely solely on capital deepening
investment that increases capital stock relative to labour
Growth rates of developing countries should exceed those of developed
countries, leading to convergence of incomes over time
Only way to sustain growth is through A (technology and factor productivity)
o Neoclassical or Solow growth model
Potential growth of GDP
= growth in technology/total factor productivity
+ share of income by labour * growth of labour
+ share of income by capital * growth of capital
Growth in technology is calculated as a residual (potential growth of GDP –
growth in labour – growth in capital)
o Practical measurement of sustainable growth
Sustainable growth = growth of labour + growth of labour productivity
Business Cycle
- A cycle has an expected sequence of phases, alternating between expansion and
contraction
- Phases occur at about the same time throughout the economy in almost all sectors
- Cycles are recurrent (happening again and again over time) but not periodic (not all
having the same intensity or duration)
- Cycles typically last between 1 and 12 years
- Phases
o Trough
o Expansion (early expansion: recovery; late expansion: boom)
o Peak
o Contraction/recession (depression if exceptionally severe)
o Measures of economic activity: inflation, industrial production, unemployment, GDP
growth (interest rate or monetary base are not direct measures but reactions to
economic activities through monetary policy)
- Economic indicators
o Leading economic indicators – turning points precede those of the overall economy
Stock price index
Interest rate spread between 10 year-treasury yields and overnight borrowing –
wider spread means economic upswing
Firms’ order for raw materials
Manufacturing hours
o Coincident economic indicators – turning points close to those of the overall
economy
Real personal income
Industrial output
o Lagging economic indicators – turning points later than those of the overall
economy
Unemployment
Inventory-sales ratio
- Unemployment
o Businesses wait until recession looks genuine to lay off, and wait until recovery
looks genuine to rehire
o Labour force changes in response to the economic environment – e.g. during
recovery, new job seekers return to labour force but seldom find work immediately,
leading to initial increasing unemployment
- Inventory-sales ratio
o Inventory levels fluctuate dramatically with business cycles
o Towards the peak, sales slow while businesses may lag in cutting back on new
production, such that inventory-sales ratio is high
o When economy starts to recover, sales of inventories can outpace production, such
that inventory-sales ratio is low
- Capital spending
o In recession, firms most likely adjust the stock of physical capital by not maintaining
equipment
- Neoclassical and Austrian schools
o All markets will reach equilibrium because of invisible hand, i.e. free market
o For any shock that shifts aggregate demand or aggregate supply, economy will
quickly readjust and reach equilibrium
o Fluctuations are caused by misguided government intervention
- Keynesians
o Focus on fluctuations of aggregate demand: if aggregate demand decreases,
Keynesians advocate government intervention (fiscal policy) to restore full
employment and avoid deflationary gap
- Monetarists
o Argue that timing of government policy responses is uncertain and therefore not
necessary
o Only to maintain steady growth of money supply and let the economy find its new
equilibrium
- New Classical and Real Business Cycle (RBC)
o Consider also fluctuations of aggregate supply: if aggregate supply decreases
because cost of production increases; or if aggregate supply increases because of
technological progress, the economy will adjust quickly to find its new equilibrium
o Government intervention is generally not necessary because it may exacerbate
fluctuation or delay convergence to equilibrium
- Neo Keynesians/ New Keynesians
o Assume sticky prices and wages: markets do not reach equilibrium immediately and
seamlessly, and even small imperfections may cause markets to be in disequilibrium
for a long time
o Government intervention is therefore needed
- Unemployment
o Labour force – either have a job or are actively looking for a job
o Long-term unemployed – out of work for a long time but still looking for a job
o Frictionally unemployed – out of work and are about to start another job (“between
jobs”) or during job matching
Natural unemployment
o Underemployed – having the qualification to work at a significantly higher-paying
job
o Discouraged worker – having stopped looking for a job (statistically outside labour
force)
- Inflation
o Inflation – sustained increases in aggregate price level
o Hyperinflation – extremely fast increase in aggregate price level
Money supply increases
Velocity of money increases: consumers accelerate their spending to beat price
increases, and thus money circulates more quickly
o Disinflation – decreasing inflation rate
o Stagflation – high inflation rate combined with high unemployment and slowdown
of economy
The economy is likely to be left to self-correct, because no short-term economic
policy is effective
o Deflation – sustained decrease in aggregate price level
Can exacerbate recession, because firms have lower revenue but higher debt
burden in real terms, so that they will reduce investment and employment
o Laspeyres index – price index created by fixed composition of consumption basket
to measure cost of living
Substitution bias (upward bias) – when the price of a good increases, people
may substitute it with another good with a lower price
Quality bias (upward bias) – price increases together with quality improvement
New product bias (upward bias) – new products are frequently introduced but
not included in the fixed basket
o Paasche index – calculation similar to GDP deflator
o Fisher index – geometric mean of Laspeyres index and Paasche index
Consumers will suffer a loss of consumer surplus from a higher price (ABCD)
Local producers will gain producer surplus from a higher price (A)
Government will gain tariff revenue (C)
Deadweight loss occurs (BD)
Tariff imposed by a small country will not change the price of goods in the
exporting country
A large country can possibly benefit from tariff, which improves the terms of
trade by enough to outweigh welfare loss
o Import Quota
Greater welfare loss than tariff, if quota rent is not captured by importing
country
Better off than tariff for importers, who can capture a share of the quota rents
Voluntary export restraint (VER) – exporting country agrees to limit exports to
trading partners
VER brings greatest welfare loss to importing country when compared to
tariff and import quota, as all of the quota rents will be captured by
exporting countries
o Export Subsidy
o Trading blocs
Regional trading bloc is a group of countries that have signed an agreement to
reduce and progressively eliminate barriers to trade and movement of factors
of production among the members
Free trade areas – allow free flow of goods and services, e.g. North American
Free Trade Agreement among US, Canada and Mexico
Customs union – extend free trade areas by also creating common trade policy
against non-members
Common market – extend customs union by also allowing free movement of
factors of production
Economic union – extend common market by also requiring common economic
institutions and coordination of economic policies among members, e.g.
European Union
Monetary union – extend economic union by adopting common currency
o Capital restriction – restrict inward and outward flow of capital
- Balance of Payments
o Double-entry bookkeeping system that summarises a country’s economic
transactions with the rest of the world
o Current account (CA)
Trade of goods and services
Income from ownership of assets, e.g. dividends and interests
Unilateral transfers, e.g. remittances, aids
o Capital account
Capital transfers, e.g. debt forgiveness, migrants’ transfer
Trade of non-produced, non-financed intangible assets, e.g. copyrights
o Financial account
Trade of financial assets
o Sp + Sg = I + CA
Savings can be used for both domestic investment and foreign investment
o CA = Sp + Sg – I
Current account deficit tends to result from low private saving, low government
saving (government deficit) and high private investment, or a combination of
three
- Trade organisations
o International Monetary Fund
Ensure stability of international monetary system, system of exchange rates and
international payments that enables countries to trade with each other
Keep country-specific market risk and global systematic risk under control
o World Bank Group
Help developing countries fight poverty and enhance environmentally sound
economic growth
o World Trade Organisation
Foster free trade
Regulate cross-border exchange globally
- Spot transactions
o Exchange of currencies for immediate delivery
o Spot exchange rate
o Only make up a minority of global FX market
- Forward calculation
o Forward premium – forward rate higher than spot rate
o Forward discount – forward rate lower than spot rate
o Forward points = difference between forward rate and spot rate*10,000 only if the
spot exchange rate is quoted with 4 decimal places
If rate quoted with 2 decimal places; *100
o Forward premium quoted in % = forward premium/spot price*100%
Forward premium only indicates that foreign interest rate is higher than
domestic interest rate
Forward price tells nothing about expectation of appreciation or depreciation
- Currency regime
o Ideal currency regime
Exchange rate between any two currencies would be credibly fixed, to eliminate
exchange rate risk
All currencies would be fully convertible
Each country would be able to undertake fully independent monetary policy
o Independently floating rates
o No separate legal tender
Dollarisation – domestic country uses currency of another nation
Monetary union – whose members share the same legal tender
o Currency board system
Explicit commitment to exchange domestic currency for a specified foreign
currency at a fixed exchange rate
Combined with the restrictions on the issuing authority to ensure fulfilment of
legal obligation, i.e. domestic currency can only be issued fully backed by
foreign exchange reserves
o Fixed parity
Similar to currency board system, but
with no legislative commitment to maintaining specified parity
target level of foreign exchange reserves is discretionary
o Target zone
Fixed parity, where exchange rate will be allowed to vary within a fixed band
o Active and passive crawling pegs
Common during high inflation periods, where exchange rate is adjusted
frequently (passive), or pre-announced for the coming weeks (active), to keep
pace with inflation rate