Financial Modelling - Forecasting - Cia 2

DALMIA CEMENT LTD.
- FINANCIAL FORECASTING
Year Ending March. 31
INCOME STATEMENT Mar '15 Mar '16 Mar '17 Mar '18
Sales Turnover ₹2,715.70 ₹2,704.99 ₹7,543.00 ₹7,881.00
Less: Excise Duty ₹335.56 ₹318.73 ₹854.00 ₹222.00
Net Sales ₹2,380.14 ₹2,386.26 ₹6,689.00 ₹7,659.00
Other Income ₹97.55 ₹152.44 ₹386.00 ₹296.00
Increase/Decrease in Stock -₹4.59 ₹17.03 ₹83.00 ₹5.00
Total Income ₹2,473.10 ₹2,555.73 ₹7,158.00 ₹7,960.00
EXPENDITURE :
Raw Materials Consumed ₹278.06 ₹254.51 ₹1,011.00 ₹1,349.00
Power & Fuel Cost ₹579.16 ₹351.04 ₹913.00 ₹1,240.00
Employee Cost ₹125.08 ₹188.59 ₹492.00 ₹504.00
Other Manufacturing Expenses ₹185.87 ₹144.50 ₹503.00 ₹545.00
General and Administration Expenses ₹43.85 ₹95.39 ₹258.00 ₹190.00
Selling and Distribution Expenses ₹461.28 ₹397.28 ₹1,396.00 ₹1,578.00
Miscellaneous Expenses ₹268.68 ₹190.33 ₹366.00 ₹413.00
Less: Pre-operative Expenses Capitalised ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00
Total Expenditure ₹1,937.39 ₹1,638.67 ₹5,022.00 ₹5,824.00
Operating Profit ₹540.30 ₹900.03 ₹2,053.00 ₹2,131.00

Interest ₹253.24 ₹352.87 ₹776.00 ₹664.00
PBDT ₹287.06 ₹547.16 ₹1,277.00 ₹1,467.00
Depreciation ₹172.60 ₹218.81 ₹1,161.00 ₹1,148.00
Profit Before Taxation & Exceptional Items ₹114.46 ₹328.35 ₹116.00 ₹319.00
Exceptional Income / Expenses -₹6.12 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00
Extra items ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00
Profit Before Tax ₹108.34 ₹328.35 ₹116.00 ₹319.00
Provision for Tax ₹40.22 ₹130.42 ₹62.00 ₹89.00
PAT ₹68.12 ₹197.93 ₹54.00 ₹230.00
Total Value Addition ₹328.79 ₹487.48 ₹1,834.00 ₹1,882.00
General Reserve ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00
Interim Dividend - Equity ₹0.00 ₹16.95 ₹0.00 ₹0.00
Proposed Equity Dividend ₹9.11 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00
Preference Dividend ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00
EPS ₹2.69 ₹7.83 ₹2.31 ₹9.82
Adjusted EPS ₹2.69 ₹7.83 ₹2.31 ₹9.82
ASTING Submitted By : SALONI JAIN_1820343
Mar '19 (Indian Rupee .in Crores)

₹8,312.00
₹0.00
₹8,312.00
₹391.00
-₹147.00
₹8,556.00
₹1,697.00
₹1,570.00
₹522.00
₹590.00
₹210.00
₹1,854.00
₹588.00
₹0.00
₹6,884.00
₹1,819.00
₹494.00
₹1,325.00
₹1,226.00
₹99.00
₹0.00
₹0.00
₹99.00
₹18.00
₹81.00
₹2,037.00
₹0.00
₹0.00
₹0.00
₹0.00
₹2.58
₹2.58
INCOME STATEMENT Mar '15 Mar '16 Mar '17 Mar '18 Mar '19
Sales ₹2,380.14 ₹2,386.26 ₹6,689.00 ₹7,659.00 ₹8,312.00
Cost of Sales ₹1,168.17 ₹938.64 ₹2,919.00 ₹3,638.00 ₹4,379.00
Other Income ₹97.55 ₹152.44 ₹386.00 ₹296.00 ₹391.00
Stock Adjustments -₹4.59 ₹17.03 ₹83.00 ₹5.00 -₹147.00
Gross Operating Income ₹1,314.11 ₹1,583.03 ₹4,073.00 ₹4,312.00 ₹4,471.00
Selling, General & Admn. Expense ₹505.13 ₹492.67 ₹1,654.00 ₹1,768.00 ₹2,064.00
Depreciation ₹172.60 ₹218.81 ₹1,161.00 ₹1,148.00 ₹1,226.00
Other net (Income)/Expenses ₹274.80 ₹190.33 ₹366.00 ₹413.00 ₹588.00
EBIT ₹361.58 ₹681.22 ₹892.00 ₹983.00 ₹593.00
Interest (Income) ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00

Interest Expense ₹253.24 ₹352.87 ₹776.00 ₹664.00 ₹494.00
Pre-Tax Income ₹108.34 ₹328.35 ₹116.00 ₹319.00 ₹99.00
Income Taxes ₹40.22 ₹130.42 ₹62.00 ₹89.00 ₹18.00

Net Income ₹68.12 ₹197.93 ₹54.00 ₹230.00 ₹81.00
Dividends ₹9.11 ₹16.95 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00

Addition to Retained Earnings ₹59.01 ₹180.98 ₹54.00 ₹230.00 ₹81.00
(Indian Rupee .in Crores)
DALMIA CEMENT LTD. - FINANCIAL FORECASTING
BALANCE SHEET Mar '15 Mar '16 Mar '17 Mar '18 Mar '19
Sources of Funds
Share Capital ₹252.92 ₹252.92 ₹234.25 ₹234.25 ₹314.05
Share warrants & Outstandings ₹0.00 ₹2.29 ₹6,200.00 ₹6,213.00 ₹16.00
Reserve ₹2,705.59 ₹2,956.46 ₹2,480.75 ₹2,683.75 ₹8,834.95
Networth ₹2,958.51 ₹3,211.67 ₹8,915.00 ₹9,131.00 ₹9,165.00
Secured Loans ₹4,019.74 ₹4,091.11 ₹5,281.00 ₹4,627.00 ₹3,772.00
Unsecured Loans ₹158.99 ₹128.76 ₹448.00 ₹324.00 ₹217.00
Total Debts ₹4,178.73 ₹4,219.87 ₹5,729.00 ₹4,951.00 ₹3,989.00
Total Liabilities ₹7,137.24 ₹7,431.54 ₹14,644.00 ₹14,082.00 ₹13,154.00
Gross_Block ₹3,706.02 ₹4,951.07 ₹15,300.00 ₹16,162.00 ₹16,377.00
Less: Accumulated Depreciation ₹811.62 ₹229.46 ₹1,355.00 ₹3,357.00 ₹4,460.00
Net Block ₹2,894.40 ₹4,721.61 ₹13,945.00 ₹12,805.00 ₹11,917.00
Capital Work in Progress ₹999.42 ₹75.58 ₹108.00 ₹155.00 ₹492.00
Investments ₹3,175.37 ₹3,470.09 ₹2,868.00 ₹3,071.00 ₹2,716.00
Current Assets, Loans & Advances
Inventories ₹241.62 ₹162.15 ₹576.00 ₹696.00 ₹892.00
Sundry Debtors (Debotrs) ₹145.22 ₹239.92 ₹464.00 ₹450.00 ₹483.00
Cash and Bank ₹344.90 ₹86.39 ₹114.00 ₹298.00 ₹392.00
Other Current Assets ₹9.05 ₹44.17 ₹126.00 ₹766.00 ₹432.00
Loans and Advances ₹536.94 ₹783.33 ₹1,683.00 ₹942.00 ₹853.00
Total Current Assets ₹1,277.73 ₹1,315.96 ₹2,963.00 ₹3,152.00 ₹3,052.00
Less : Current Liabilities and Provisions
Current Liabilities ₹1,024.94 ₹1,108.62 ₹3,838.00 ₹3,722.00 ₹3,606.00
Provisions ₹12.48 ₹133.62 ₹76.00 ₹35.00 ₹63.00
Total Current Liabilities ₹1,037.42 ₹1,242.24 ₹3,914.00 ₹3,757.00 ₹3,669.00
Net Current Assets ₹240.31 ₹73.72 -₹951.00 -₹605.00 -₹617.00
Miscellaneous Expenses -₹172.26 -₹909.46 -₹1,326.00 -₹1,344.00 -₹1,354.00
Total Assets ₹7,137.24 ₹7,431.54 ₹14,644.00 ₹14,082.00 ₹13,154.00
Contingent Liabilities ₹210.29 ₹134.25 ₹438.00 ₹453.00 ₹528.00
Assets
Cash Bank Balance or Marketable Securities ₹344.90 ₹86.39 ₹114.00 ₹298.00 ₹392.00
Accounts Receivable ₹145.22 ₹239.92 ₹464.00 ₹450.00 ₹483.00
Inventories ₹241.62 ₹162.15 ₹576.00 ₹696.00 ₹892.00
Other Current Assets ( L& A and FD) ₹545.99 ₹827.50 ₹1,809.00 ₹1,708.00 ₹1,285.00
Property, Plant and Equipment, Gross ₹3,706.02 ₹4,951.07 ₹15,300.00 ₹16,162.00 ₹16,377.00
Accumulated Depreciation ₹811.62 ₹229.46 ₹1,355.00 ₹3,357.00 ₹4,460.00
Property, Plant, and equipment, Net ₹2,894.40 ₹4,721.61 ₹13,945.00 ₹12,805.00 ₹11,917.00

Other Non-Current Assets ( CWP+INVST+FD) ₹4,174.79 ₹3,545.67 ₹2,976.00 ₹3,226.00 ₹3,208.00
Total Non-Current Assets ₹6,896.93 ₹7,357.82 ₹15,595.00 ₹14,687.00 ₹13,771.00
Total Assets ₹8,174.66 ₹8,673.78 ₹18,558.00 ₹17,839.00 ₹16,823.00
Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity

Accounts Payable ₹1,024.94 ₹1,108.62 ₹3,838.00 ₹3,722.00 ₹3,606.00
Short-Term Debt ₹158.99 ₹128.76 ₹448.00 ₹324.00 ₹217.00
Other Current Liabilities ₹12.48 ₹133.62 ₹76.00 ₹35.00 ₹63.00
Long-Term Debt ₹4,019.74 ₹4,091.11 ₹5,281.00 ₹4,627.00 ₹3,772.00

Deferred Income Taxes ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00
Other Non-Current Liabilities ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00
Paid-In Capital 252.92 252.92 234.25 234.25 314.05

Share Application Money ₹0.00 ₹2.29 ₹6,200.00 ₹6,213.00 ₹16.00
Retained Earnings ₹2,705.59 ₹2,956.46 ₹2,480.75 ₹2,683.75 ₹8,834.95
Total Shareholders' Equity ₹2,958.51 ₹3,211.67 ₹8,915.00 ₹9,131.00 ₹9,165.00
Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity ₹9,371.07 ₹10,044.78 ₹22,920.00 ₹21,920.00 ₹20,709.00
Sales ₹2,380.14 ₹2,386.26 ₹6,689.00 ₹7,659.00 ₹8,312.00
Cost of Sales ₹1,168.17 ₹938.64 ₹2,919.00 ₹3,638.00 ₹4,379.00
Other Income ₹97.55 ₹152.44 ₹386.00 ₹296.00 ₹391.00
Selling, General & Admn. Expenses ₹505.13 ₹492.67 ₹1,654.00 ₹1,768.00 ₹2,064.00
Depreciation ₹172.60 ₹218.81 ₹1,161.00 ₹1,148.00 ₹1,226.00
EBIT ₹361.58 ₹681.22 ₹892.00 ₹983.00 ₹593.00
Interest (Income) ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00

Pre-Tax Income ₹108.34 ₹328.35 ₹116.00 ₹319.00 ₹99.00
Income Taxes ₹40.22 ₹130.42 ₹62.00 ₹89.00 ₹18.00

Net Income ₹68.12 ₹197.93 ₹54.00 ₹230.00 ₹81.00
Dividends ₹9.11 ₹16.95 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00


Assets
Inventories ₹241.62 ₹162.15 ₹576.00 ₹696.00 ₹892.00

Other Non-Current Assets ( CWP+INVST+FD)₹4,174.79 ₹3,545.67 ₹2,976.00 ₹3,226.00 ₹3,208.00
Total Assets ₹8,174.66 ₹8,673.78 ₹18,558.00 ₹17,839.00 ₹16,823.00

Short-Term Debt ₹158.99 ₹128.76 ₹448.00 ₹324.00 ₹217.00
Long-Term Debt ₹4,019.74 ₹4,091.11 ₹5,281.00 ₹4,627.00 ₹3,772.00

Paid-In Capital 252.92 252.92 234.25 234.25 314.05

Commonsize Statement(Sales Driven Approach) Year Ending March. 31,
Mar '15 Mar '16 Mar '17 Mar '18 Mar '19 Average
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
49.08% 39.34% 43.64% 47.50% 52.68% 46.45%
4.10% 6.39% 5.77% 3.86% 4.70% 4.97%
-0.19% 0.71% 1.24% 0.07% -1.77% 0.01%
55.21% 66.34% 60.89% 56.30% 53.79% 58.51%
21.22% 20.65% 24.73% 23.08% 24.83% 22.90%

4.66% 4.42% 7.59% 7.10% 7.49% 6.25%
11.55% 7.98% 5.47% 5.39% 7.07% 7.49%
15.19% 28.55% 13.34% 12.83% 7.13% 15.41%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

10.64% 14.79% 11.60% 8.67% 5.94% 10.33%
4.55% 13.76% 1.73% 4.17% 1.19% 5.08%
1.69% 5.47% 0.93% 1.16% 0.22% 1.89%

2.86% 8.29% 0.81% 3.00% 0.97% 3.19%
0.38% 0.71% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22%

2.48% 7.58% 0.81% 3.00% 0.97% 2.97%
Commonsize Statement(Sales Driven Approach) Year Ending March. 31,

Mar '15 Mar '16 Mar '17 Mar '18 Mar '19 Average
4.22% 1.00% 0.61% 1.67% 2.33% 1.97%

1.78% 2.77% 2.50% 2.52% 2.87% 2.49%
2.96% 1.87% 3.10% 3.90% 5.30% 3.43%
6.68% 9.54% 9.75% 9.57% 7.64% 8.64%
15.63% 15.17% 15.97% 17.67% 18.14% 16.52%
45.34% 57.08% 82.44% 90.60% 97.35% 74.56%

9.93% 2.65% 7.30% 18.82% 26.51% 13.04%
35.41% 54.44% 75.14% 71.78% 70.84% 61.52%
-2.11% -10.49% -7.15% -7.53% -8.05% -7.06%

51.07% 40.88% 16.04% 18.08% 19.07% 29.03%
84.37% 84.83% 84.03% 82.33% 81.86% 83.48%
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
12.54% 12.78% 20.68% 20.86% 21.43% 17.66%

1.94% 1.48% 2.41% 1.82% 1.29% 1.79%
0.15% 1.54% 0.41% 0.20% 0.37% 0.53%
14.64% 15.81% 23.50% 22.88% 23.10% 19.98%
49.17% 47.17% 28.46% 25.94% 22.42% 34.63%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
63.81% 62.97% 51.96% 48.81% 45.52% 54.62%
3.09% 2.92% 1.26% 1.31% 1.87% 2.09%

0.00% 0.03% 33.41% 34.83% 0.10% 13.67%
33.10% 34.09% 13.37% 15.04% 52.52% 29.62%
36.19% 37.03% 48.04% 51.19% 54.48% 45.38%
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

INCOME STATEMENT
Topic Forecasting Factor
Sales 6.00%
Cost of Sales 46.45%
Other Income 4.97%
Stock Adjustments 0.01%
Gross Operating Income
Selling, General & Admn. Expenses 22.90%

Depreciation 6.25%
Other net (Income)/Expenses 7.49%
EBIT
Interest (Income) 7.00%

Interest Expense 9.00%
Pre-Tax Income
Income Taxes 35.00%

Net Income
Dividends 40.00%
Addition to Retained Earnings
BALANCE SHEET
BALANCE SHEET
Topic Forecasting Factor
Assets
Cash Bank Balance or Marketable Securitie 1.97%
Accounts Receivable 2.49%
Inventories 3.43%
Other Current Assets ( L& A and FD) 8.64%
Total Current Assets TOTAL
Property, Plant and Equipment, Gross 74.56%

Accumulated Depreciation 13.04%
Property, Plant, and equipment, Net 61.52%
Miscellaneous Expenses -7.06%

Other Non-Current Assets ( CWP+INVST+FD 29.03%
Total Non-Current Assets TOTAL
Total Assets 20.00%

Accounts Payable 17.66%
Short-Term Debt (TA-AP-OCL-ONCL-TSE)
Other Current Liabilities 0.53%
Total Current Liabilities TOTAL
Long-Term Debt 34.63%

Deferred Income Taxes 0.00%
Other Non-Current Liabilities 0.00%
Total Liabilities TOTAL
Paid-In Capital 2.09%

Share Application Money 13.67%
Retained Earnings 29.62%
Total Shareholders' Equity TOTAL
Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity TOTAL

COME STATEMENT
Basis of Forecasting
Based on Input from Top Management
Percentage of Sales
Percentage of Sales
Percentage of Sales
Percentage of Sales
PPEC*Based on Historical Average
Percentage of Sales
Percentage of Marketable Securities

Long Term Debt+ Average Percentage of CY and PY Short Term Debt
IT ACT
Net Income*Based on Input from Top Management
BALANCE SHEET
Basis of Forecasting
Based on Historical Average


PY Balance + CY Balance
Gross PPE - CY Depreciation


Balancing Figure


PY R&S + CY Addition to Retained Earnings
(Indian Rupee .in Crores) Year Ending March. 31,
Sales ₹2,380.14 ₹2,386.26 ₹6,689.00 ₹7,659.00 ₹8,312.00
Cost of Sales ₹1,168.17 ₹938.64 ₹2,919.00 ₹3,638.00 ₹4,379.00
Other Income ₹97.55 ₹152.44 ₹386.00 ₹296.00 ₹391.00
Selling, General & Admn. Expenses ₹505.13 ₹492.67 ₹1,654.00 ₹1,768.00 ₹2,064.00
Depreciation ₹172.60 ₹218.81 ₹1,161.00 ₹1,148.00 ₹1,226.00
EBIT ₹361.58 ₹681.22 ₹892.00 ₹983.00 ₹593.00
Interest (Income) ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00

Pre-Tax Income ₹108.34 ₹328.35 ₹116.00 ₹319.00 ₹99.00
Income Taxes ₹40.22 ₹130.42 ₹62.00 ₹89.00 ₹18.00

Net Income ₹68.12 ₹197.93 ₹54.00 ₹230.00 ₹81.00
Dividends ₹9.11 ₹16.95 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00


BALANCE SHEET Year Ending March. 31,
Assets Mar '15 Mar '16 Mar '17 Mar '18 Mar '19
Inventories ₹241.62 ₹162.15 ₹576.00 ₹696.00 ₹892.00

Other Non-Current Assets ( CWP+INVST+FD ₹4,174.79 ₹3,545.67 ₹2,976.00 ₹3,226.00 ₹3,208.00
Total Assets ₹8,174.66 ₹8,673.78 ₹18,558.00 ₹17,839.00 ₹16,823.00

Short-Term Debt ₹158.99 ₹128.76 ₹448.00 ₹324.00 ₹217.00
Long-Term Debt ₹4,019.74 ₹4,091.11 ₹5,281.00 ₹4,627.00 ₹3,772.00

Paid-In Capital ₹252.92 ₹252.92 ₹234.25 ₹234.25 ₹314.05

Other Data
Stock Price (Year end) ₹488.90 ₹706.30 ₹1,524.35 ₹1,099.85 ₹800.30
Avg.No.of Outstanding Shares (Million) ₹56.90 ₹56.90 ₹192.96 ₹192.96 ₹192.96
Defeciet Fund (DFN)
Financial Indicators
EPS ₹1.20 ₹3.48 ₹0.28 ₹1.19 ₹0.42

Dividend per Share ₹0.16 ₹0.30 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00
P/E Ratio ₹408.37 ₹203.04 ₹5,447.01 ₹922.73 ₹1,906.49
Book value per share ₹7.24 ₹15.82 ₹1.64 ₹9.90 ₹4.81
P/B (price to book) Ratio ₹7.85 ₹3.60 ₹117.90 ₹19.50 ₹40.14
Dividend Payout Ratio 13.37% 8.56% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Profitability Ratio
Return on Equity (ROE) 2.52% 6.69% 2.18% 8.57% 0.92%
Return on Sales (ROS) 15.19% 28.55% 13.34% 12.83% 7.13%
Growth Rates
EPS Growth Rate 0 190.56% -91.95% 325.93% -64.78%
Dividend Growth Rate 0 86.06% -100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Sales Growth Rate 0 0.26% 180.31% 14.50% 8.53%
EBIT Growth Rate 0 88.40% 235.72% 6.89% 16.74%
Net Income Growth Rate 0 203.07% -64.67% 175.00% -68.97%
Plant Property Equipments Growth Rate Gross 0 33.60% 209.02% 5.63% 1.33%
Liquidity Ratio
Current Ratio 1.07 0.96 0.68 0.77 0.79
Quick Ratio 0.87 0.84 0.55 0.60 0.56
Operating Ratio
Inventory Turnover Ratio 9.85 14.72 11.61 11.00 9.32
Receivable Turnover Ratio 16.39 9.95 14.42 17.02 17.21
Leverage Ratio
Total Debt to Total Capitalization 58.55% 56.78% 39.12% 35.16% 30.33%
Long-Term Debt to Total Capitalization 56.32% 55.05% 36.06% 32.86% 28.68%
Total Debt to Equity 141.24% 131.39% 64.26% 54.22% 43.52%
Forecasting Forecasting Factor
Mar '20 Mar '21 Mar '22 Mar '23 Mar '24
8810.72 ₹9,339.363 ₹9,899.72 ₹10,493.71 ₹11,123.33 6.00%
4092.34035 ₹4,337.88 ₹4,598.15 ₹4,874.04 ₹5,166.49 46.45%
437.473088 ₹463.72 ₹491.54 ₹521.04 ₹552.30 4.97%
1.02947464 ₹1.09 ₹1.16 ₹1.23 ₹1.30 0.01%
5156.88221 ₹5,466.30 ₹5,794.27 ₹6,141.93 ₹6,510.44
2017.85758 ₹2,138.93 ₹2,267.26 ₹2,403.30 ₹2,547.50 22.90%

940.889359 ₹1,129.07 ₹1,354.88 ₹1,625.86 ₹1,951.03 6.25%
660.094694 ₹699.70 ₹741.68 ₹786.18 ₹833.35 7.49%
1538.04058 ₹1,498.60 ₹1,430.45 ₹1,326.59 ₹1,178.56
27.7823355 ₹33.34 ₹40.01 ₹48.01 ₹57.61 7.00%
122.218268 ₹5.18 ₹79.54 ₹184.92 ₹328.92 9.00%

1443.60465 ₹1,526.75 ₹1,390.91 ₹1,189.68 ₹907.25
505.261626 ₹534.36 ₹486.82 ₹416.39 ₹317.54 35.00%

938.34302 ₹992.39 ₹904.09 ₹773.29 ₹589.71
375.337208 ₹396.96 ₹361.64 ₹309.32 ₹235.88 40.00%

563.005812 ₹595.43 ₹542.46 ₹463.97 ₹353.83
Forecasting Forecasting Factor

Mar '20 Mar '21 Mar '22 Mar '23 Mar '24
396.890507 ₹476.269 ₹571.52 ₹685.83 ₹822.99 1.97%
502.122317 ₹602.55 ₹723.06 ₹867.67 ₹1,041.20 2.49%
691.738527 ₹830.09 ₹996.10 ₹1,195.32 ₹1,434.39 3.43%
1743.40109 ₹2,092.08 ₹2,510.50 ₹3,012.60 ₹3,615.12 8.64%
3334.15244 ₹4,000.98 ₹4,801.18 ₹5,761.42 ₹6,913.70
15052.2254 ₹18,062.67 ₹21,675.20 ₹26,010.25 ₹31,212.29 74.56%

5400.88936 ₹6,529.96 ₹7,884.84 ₹9,510.69 ₹11,461.72 13.04%
9651.33604 ₹11,532.71 ₹13,790.37 ₹16,499.55 ₹19,750.57 61.52%
-1426.05744 -₹1,711.27 -₹2,053.52 -₹2,464.23 -₹2,957.07 -7.06%

5859.9448 ₹7,031.93 ₹8,438.32 ₹10,125.98 ₹12,151.18 29.03%
14085.2234 ₹16,853.38 ₹20,175.17 ₹24,161.31 ₹28,944.68
20187.6 ₹24,225.12 ₹29,070.14 ₹34,884.17 ₹41,861.01 20.00%

3565.11962 ₹4,278.14 ₹5,133.77 ₹6,160.53 ₹7,392.63 17.66%
-3056.59405 -₹2,383.76 -₹1,404.28 -₹41.95 ₹1,795.80 (TA-AP-OCL-ONCL-TSE)
107.938465 ₹129.526 ₹155.43 ₹186.52 ₹223.82 0.53%
616.464036 ₹2,023.91 ₹3,884.92 ₹6,305.10 ₹9,412.25
6991.18983 ₹8,389.43 ₹10,067.31 ₹12,080.78 ₹14,496.93 34.63%

0 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 0.00%
0 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 0.00%
7607.65386 ₹10,413.34 ₹13,952.23 ₹18,385.87 ₹23,909.19
422.003538 ₹506.40 ₹607.69 ₹729.22 ₹875.07 2.09%

2759.98679 ₹3,311.98 ₹3,974.38 ₹4,769.26 ₹5,723.11 13.67%
9397.95581 ₹9,993.39 ₹10,535.85 ₹10,999.82 ₹11,353.65 29.62%
12579.9461 ₹13,811.78 ₹15,117.91 ₹16,498.30 ₹17,951.82
20187.6 ₹24,225.12 ₹29,070.14 ₹34,884.17 ₹41,861.01
9271.06073 ₹9,805.05 ₹8,932.67 ₹7,640.29 ₹5,826.50

192.96 ₹192.96 ₹192.96 ₹192.96 ₹192.96 Constant
₹4.86 ₹5.14 ₹4.69 ₹4.01 ₹3.06

₹1.95 ₹2.06 ₹1.87 ₹1.60 ₹1.22
₹1,906.49 ₹1,906.49 ₹1,906.49 ₹1,906.49 ₹1,906.49
₹6.60 ₹7.24 ₹7.93 ₹8.65 ₹9.42
₹29.24 ₹26.64 ₹24.33 ₹22.30 ₹20.49
40.00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00% 40.00%
9.98% 9.93% 8.58% 7.03% 5.19%

17.46% 16.05% 14.45% 12.64% 10.60%
1058.45% 5.76% -8.90% -14.47% -23.74%

0.00% 5.76% -8.90% -14.47% -23.74%
6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
-2.24% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
1358.19% 5.76% -8.90% -14.47% -23.74%
-8.09% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00%
5.41 1.98 1.24 0.91 0.73
4.29 1.57 0.98 0.72 0.58
12.74 11.25 9.94 8.78 7.75

17.55 15.50 13.69 12.09 10.68
23.83% 30.30% 36.43% 42.19% 47.58%

42.33% 42.33% 42.33% 42.33% 42.33%
31.28% 43.48% 57.30% 72.97% 90.76%
Basis of Forecast

Percentage of Sales
Percentage of Sales
Percentage of Sales
Percentage of Sales
PPEC*Based on Historical Average
Percentage of Sales
Percentage of Marketable Securities

Long Term Debt+ Average Percentage of CY and PY Short Term
Debt. 250 Cr is assumed as interest on Long Term Debt.
IT ACT
Net Income*Based on Input from Top Management
Basis of Forecast


PY Balance + CY Balance
Gross PPE - CY Depreciation

20% Growth Rate

Balancing Figure


PY R&S + CY Addition to Retained Earnings
EARNING PER SHARE - DALMIA CEMENT LTD.
Year EPS 6.00

2015 1.20
5.00
2016 3.48
2017 0.28 4.00
2018 1.19
Axis Title
2019 0.42 3.00
2020 4.86 EPS
2.00
2021 5.14
2022 4.69
1.00
2023 4.01
2024 3.06 0.00
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
HISTORICAL YEARS FORECASTED

YEARS
INTERPRETATION
Earnings per share (EPS) ratio measures how many dollars of net income have been earned by each
share of common stock during a certain time period.It can be seen that there is high variation in the
EPS ratio over the years. The main reason behind the sudden uprise in EPS is the increase in sales
and the reduced cost of the company. The Net Income of the company increased mainly due to
decrease in the interest payment for the company. Thus, the company was expressing downturn due
to the construction business having low demand and the market players having their monopoly in
the market. It has been assumed that the company then used its potential and according to reports
transformed its methods to reduce fixed and variable cost. Thus, the shareholders will experience
higher potential earnings.
RETURN ON EQUITY - DALMIA CEMENT LTD.
Year ROE 12%

2015 3%
2016 7% 10%
2017 2% 8%
2018 9%
Axis Title
2019 1% 6%
2020 10% Return on Equity
4%
2021 10%
2022 9% 2%
2023 7%
2024 5% 0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
HISTORICAL YEARS FORECASTED

YEARS
INTERPRETATION
Return on equity (ROE) is a measure of financial performance calculated by dividing net income
by shareholders' equity. It is the rate of return that the shareholders earn on their holdings. It can be
seen that the ROE of the company is plunging and advancing year-on-year, because the equity of
the company is increasing more and more in the projected years, thus decreasing ROE. The ROE is
decreasing in the forcasted years because the increase in earnings is less than the increase in
shareholders value.
Return on equity (ROE) is a measure of financial performance calculated by dividing net income
by shareholders' equity. It is the rate of return that the shareholders earn on their holdings. It can be
seen that the ROE of the company is plunging and advancing year-on-year, because the equity of
the company is increasing more and more in the projected years, thus decreasing ROE. The ROE is
decreasing in the forcasted years because the increase in earnings is less than the increase in
shareholders value.
CURRENT RATIO - DALMIA CEMENT LTD.
Year Current Ratio CURRENT RATIO

6.00
2015 1.07
2016 0.96 5.00
2017 0.68 4.00

2018 0.77
3.00
2019 0.79
2020 5.41 2.00
2021 1.98 1.00
2022 1.24
2023 0.91 0.00
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
2024 0.73
HISTORICAL YEARS FORECASTED YEARS
INTERPRETATION
The current ratio is a liquidity ratio that measures whether a firm has enough resources to meet its
short-term obligations.The ideal industry current ratio is 1. In Dalmia Cement case, the current ratio
has been varying over the years, due to the adverse changes in short term debt. The company saw
that if it does not change is debt management mechanism it can lead the comapny towards doom,.
So the company decided to make pre-paid payments and does the short-term debt is negative in
some years. But afterwards it is projected that the company has optimised and maintains fairly
close to ideal current ratio.
CONCLUSION
On analysing and forecasting the fianncials of Dalmia Cement it can be concluded that the
company has dwindled in many years, but with new policies and restructuring the company will
able to perform better. It has been seen that over the years the company was able to increase
sales and reduce cost. The company has a high P/E ratio in comparison to its earnings so I
advice to Sell the shares, as it is overvalued. And if someone looking to invest there money
then wait for the market to correct. Also the financials of the comapny has a lot of fluctions,
which shows bas]d management decisions.
P/E RATIO- DALMIA CEMENT LTD.
6000.00
Year P/E
2015 408.37 5000.00
2016 203.04
2017 5447.01 4000.00
2018 922.73
Axis Title
2019 1906.49 3000.00
EPS 2020 1906.49
2021 1906.49 2000.00
2022 1906.49
1000.00
2023 1906.49
2024 1906.49
24 0.00
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
HISTORICAL
YEARS
INTERPRETATION
The price-earnings ratio, also known as P/E ratio is the ratio of a company's
company's earnings per share. It tells us that how much the market is willing
company depending on its current earnings and dividend. The P/E Ratio is co
forecasted years as the company is growing by a constant rate of 6%. As the
advancing in its industry, it has been noted that the investors are willing to pa
company's share. Due to company's overwelmed performance the company's
Thus, denoting higher P/E Ratio. From this graph, it can be noted that the inv
shares. However, companies that grow faster than average typically have hig
technology companies. So, the share price can be optimal.
TOTAL DEBT TO EQUITY - DALMIA CEMENT LTD.
Year ROE TOTAL DEBT TO EQUIT

2015 141.24% 160.00%
2016 131.39% 140.00%
2017 64.26% 120.00%
2018 54.22%
100.00%
2019 43.52%
urn on Equity 80.00%
2020 31.28%
2021 43.48% 60.00%
2022 57.30% 40.00%

2023 72.97% 20.00%
2024 90.76% 0.00%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
HISTORICAL YEARS
INTERPRETATION
The debt-to-equity ratio is calculated by dividing a company's total liabilities
equity. The debt-to-equity ratio shows the proportions of equity and debt a co
finance its assets and it signals the extent to which shareholder's equity can fu
creditors, in the event a business declines. The D/E ratio has been decreasing
because there has been constanly decrease in debt over the years, as the comp
death, terms. In the years of advancement, the company leveraged more to co
growth.
The debt-to-equity ratio is calculated by dividing a company's total liabilities
equity. The debt-to-equity ratio shows the proportions of equity and debt a co
finance its assets and it signals the extent to which shareholder's equity can fu
creditors, in the event a business declines. The D/E ratio has been decreasing
because there has been constanly decrease in debt over the years, as the comp
death, terms. In the years of advancement, the company leveraged more to co
growth.
DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO - DALMIA CEMENT LTD.
Year Current Ratio

2015 13% 45%
DPR
2016 9% 40%
2017 0% 35%
2018 0% 30%
2019 0% 25%
2020 40% 20%
2021 40% 15%
2022 40% 10%
2023 40% 5%
2024 40% 0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
HISTORICAL YEARS
INTERPRETATION
The dividend payout ratio is the fraction of net income a firm pays to its stoc
dividends. The company due to its low performance did not pay dividend in
2017,2018 & 2019. But after the forecast and changed policies it is mentione
annual report that it will pay its investors there long due earnings in the form
is assuemed to be 40% in this case.
A CEMENT LTD.
P/E RATIO
7 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

FORECASTED
YEARS
TATION
s the ratio of a company's share price to the
much the market is willing to pay for the
vidend. The P/E Ratio is constant for the
onstant rate of 6%. As the company is
investors are willing to pay more for the
erformance the company's share is overpriced.
it can be noted that the investors should sell the
average typically have higher P/Es, such as
ptimal.
DALMIA CEMENT LTD.
TAL DEBT TO EQUITY
7 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
FORECASTED YEARS
TATION
company's total liabilities by its shareholder
ons of equity and debt a company is using to
shareholder's equity can fulfill obligations to
ratio has been decreasing from 2015 to 2020,
over the years, as the company pre-paid its
pany leveraged more to cover the increase in
- DALMIA CEMENT LTD.
DPR
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

FORECASTED YEARS
TATION
ome a firm pays to its stockholders in
e did not pay dividend in the fllowing years:
ged policies it is mentioned in the company
g due earnings in the form of dividends, which

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DALMIA CEMENT LTD.

Operating Profit ₹540.30 ₹900.03 ₹2,053.00 ₹2,131.00

Mar '19 (Indian Rupee .in Crores)

Interest (Income) ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00

Income Taxes ₹40.22 ₹130.42 ₹62.00 ₹89.00 ₹18.00

Dividends ₹9.11 ₹16.95 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00

Miscellaneous Expenses -₹172.26 -₹909.46 -₹1,326.00 -₹1,344.00 -₹1,354.00

Total Assets ₹8,174.66 ₹8,673.78 ₹18,558.00 ₹17,839.00 ₹16,823.00

Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity

Long-Term Debt ₹4,019.74 ₹4,091.11 ₹5,281.00 ₹4,627.00 ₹3,772.00

Paid-In Capital 252.92 252.92 234.25 234.25 314.05

Interest (Income) ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00

Income Taxes ₹40.22 ₹130.42 ₹62.00 ₹89.00 ₹18.00

Dividends ₹9.11 ₹16.95 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00

(Indian Rupee .in Crores)

Miscellaneous Expenses -₹172.26 -₹909.46 -₹1,326.00 -₹1,344.00 -₹1,354.00

Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity

Long-Term Debt ₹4,019.74 ₹4,091.11 ₹5,281.00 ₹4,627.00 ₹3,772.00

Paid-In Capital 252.92 252.92 234.25 234.25 314.05

21.22% 20.65% 24.73% 23.08% 24.83% 22.90%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

1.69% 5.47% 0.93% 1.16% 0.22% 1.89%

0.38% 0.71% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22%

Commonsize Statement(Sales Driven Approach) Year Ending March. 31,

4.22% 1.00% 0.61% 1.67% 2.33% 1.97%

45.34% 57.08% 82.44% 90.60% 97.35% 74.56%

-2.11% -10.49% -7.15% -7.53% -8.05% -7.06%

12.54% 12.78% 20.68% 20.86% 21.43% 17.66%

49.17% 47.17% 28.46% 25.94% 22.42% 34.63%

3.09% 2.92% 1.26% 1.31% 1.87% 2.09%

100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Selling, General & Admn. Expenses 22.90%

Interest (Income) 7.00%

Income Taxes 35.00%

Property, Plant and Equipment, Gross 74.56%

Miscellaneous Expenses -7.06%

Total Assets 20.00%

Long-Term Debt 34.63%

Paid-In Capital 2.09%

Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity TOTAL

Percentage of Marketable Securities

Net Income*Based on Input from Top Management

Based on Historical Average

Based on Historical Average

Based on Historical Average

Based on Input from Top Management

Based on Historical Average

Based on Historical Average

Interest (Income) ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00

Interest Expense ₹253.24 ₹352.87 ₹776.00 ₹664.00 ₹494.00

Income Taxes ₹40.22 ₹130.42 ₹62.00 ₹89.00 ₹18.00

Dividends ₹9.11 ₹16.95 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00

(Indian Rupee .in Crores)

Miscellaneous Expenses -₹172.26 -₹909.46 -₹1,326.00 -₹1,344.00 -₹1,354.00

Total Assets ₹8,174.66 ₹8,673.78 ₹18,558.00 ₹17,839.00 ₹16,823.00

Long-Term Debt ₹4,019.74 ₹4,091.11 ₹5,281.00 ₹4,627.00 ₹3,772.00

Paid-In Capital ₹252.92 ₹252.92 ₹234.25 ₹234.25 ₹314.05

EPS ₹1.20 ₹3.48 ₹0.28 ₹1.19 ₹0.42

2017.85758 ₹2,138.93 ₹2,267.26 ₹2,403.30 ₹2,547.50 22.90%

27.7823355 ₹33.34 ₹40.01 ₹48.01 ₹57.61 7.00%

122.218268 ₹5.18 ₹79.54 ₹184.92 ₹328.92 9.00%

505.261626 ₹534.36 ₹486.82 ₹416.39 ₹317.54 35.00%

375.337208 ₹396.96 ₹361.64 ₹309.32 ₹235.88 40.00%