Atlas of Environmental Migration

People have always migrated in search of better climatic conditions or in response to
environmental change. Today, this phenomenon takes on a whole new dimension, as climate
change progressively threatens traditional landscapes and livelihoods of entire communities.
Increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as floods, hurricanes and
droughts, lead to significant population displacement every year on every continent. Every day
we hear and read about ‘environmental’ or ‘climate migrants’.
The Atlas of Environmental Migration is the first illustrated publication mapping environmental
migration, clarifying terminology and concepts, drawing a typology of migration related
to environment and climate change, describing the multiple factors at play, explaining the
challenges, and highlighting the opportunities related to this phenomenon. Through elaborate
maps, diagrams, illustrations and case studies from all over the world based on the most
updated international research findings, the Atlas guides the reader through this complex
phenomenon from the roots of environmental migration to governance.
Dina Ionesco is Head of the Migration, Environment and Climate Change Division at the
International Organization for Migration.
Daria Mokhnacheva works as a thematic specialist at the Migration, Environment and
Climate Change Division at the International Organization for Migration.
François Gemenne is the Executive Director of the Politics of the Earth Programme
at Sciences Po/USPC, and Senior Research Associate at the FNRS, University of Liège
(Hugo Observatory).
01-AtlasMigrationEN-OIM-6sept.indd 1 06/09/2016 10:40

“The numbers, maps and fine-grained detail of this work illuminate and
delineate the intersection of key challenges of globalization. It brings much
needed explanation and perspective to this contested area. This Atlas really
does try to balance the sky on its shoulders.”
Neil Adger, University of Exeter, UK
“There is a tragic connection between the incapacity of nation states to

respond to migration and to climate change. In both cases, it is the very
notion of sovereignty that seems questioned. One solution is to try to
maintain the status quo, the other to map how inefficient the notion of
sovereignty has become. This is one of the major achievements of this Atlas.”
Bruno Latour, Sciences Po, France
“The fates of individuals and communities most vulnerable to climate change

are often forgotten in political debates. Climate justice, which links human
rights and development to achieve a human-centred approach, requires us to
safeguard the rights of the most vulnerable people and share the burdens and
benefits of climate change and its impacts equitably and fairly. The Atlas of
Environmental Migration deserves much praise for bringing people and their
rights into the heart of the issue of environmental displacement.”
Mary Robinson, President, Mary Robinson Foundation – Climate Justice, Ireland
“Climate stresses and the degradation of resources and agriculture are major
drivers of migration in Africa, Asia, and other parts of the world. This Atlas
provides a balanced picture of how the mismanagement of the environment
can directly impact people’s lives. It highlights the importance of protecting
our environment thus reducing the risk of forced migration and how coherent
migration-based strategies can provide a lifeline to millions of people.”
Thomas L. Friedman, author and columnist, USA

The Atlas
OF ENVIRONMENTAL
MIGRATION
Dina Ionesco
Daria Mokhnacheva
François Gemenne

First published 2017
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2017 Dina Ionesco and Daria Mokhnacheva (IOM), and François Gemenne
The right of Dina Ionesco, Daria Mokhnacheva and François Gemenne to be identified as author of this work
has been asserted by them in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act
1988.
The maps produced for the Atlas of Environmental Migration are based on the maps of the United Nations
Geospatial Information Section (2012). The designations employed and the presentation of material on
these maps are not warranted to be error free and do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on
the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations or of the International Organization for Migration concerning
the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its
frontiers or boundaries.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any
electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and
recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used
only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
Publisher’s note: This book has been prepared from camera-ready copy provided by the authors.
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
A catalog record has been requested for this book
Maps and graphics created by Atelier de Cartographie de Sciences Po, Aurélie Boissière,
Philippe Rekacewicz, Agnès Stienne, Zoï Environment Network
Research and map production coordinated by Daria Mokhnacheva
Typeset in Akzidenz Grotesk Next and Chaparral Pro by Alain Chevallier
Translated and edited by Alexander Bramble
Cover image: © Marie Velardi, ‘Terre-Mer (Oostende)’, 2014, pencil and watercolour on paper, 75 x 109 cm.

Contents
Forewords Challenges
VI Supporting environmental migrants: and opportunities
A new imperative
70 Introduction
VIII Climate change: The ultimate injustice
72 Disruption of traditional migration strategies
IX A myriad of opportunities
74 Circular migration
X Acknowledgements
76 Development, adaptation and risk management
XI The authors
78 Demographic pressure in at-risk areas
XII List of experts consulted
80 Urbanization
XIV List of abbreviations and acronyms
82 Security and conflict
84 Managing mass displacement
86 Protecting human rights
Current migration and 88 Individual coping strategies
90 Gender and migration
environmental migration
2 Introduction
4 A long history
6 A political issue Governance and policy
8 A world in motion responses
10 Geography of research
94 Introduction
12 Quantifying and forecasting
98 The cost of environmental migration
16 Disasters and displacement
102 Funding action
18 Forced or voluntary?
106 International law
20 Trajectories
108 Building a new legal framework
22 Time frames
110 Regional legal frameworks
24 Return migration
112 At the crossroads of international agendas
26 Relocation
114 Regional policy processes
28 Immobility
116 International organizations
30 Amenity migration
118 Migration and national adaptation policies
120 Linking mobility and disaster management
122 Linking migration, adaptation and development
Factors of environmental
migration
124 Glossary
34 Introduction 128 Bibliography and sources
38 Geophysical disasters 148 Photo credits
40 Floods, storms and landslides 149 Index
42 Droughts, extreme temperatures and wildfires
46 Ecosystem degradation
50 Sea-level rise and coastal risks
54 Industrial accidents
56 Infrastructure and land grabbing
58 The regional impacts of climate change
64 A multi-causal phenomenon
66 Individual factors

Supporting environmental
migrants: A new imperative
O
ur era is experiencing an unprec- In 2014, some 220,000 migrants with All too often still, we forget that on
edented level of human mobility. irregular status crossed the Mediterra- a personal level, numerous factors
Of our planet’s 7 billion people, nean heading for Europe and in 2015, combine to influence the strategy of
more than 1 billion have moved either more than 1 million people followed this each individual, and that migration is all
within or outside of their country of same route – a record number compared but a mechanical response.
origin; namely one person in seven. to previous years. Sadly, the year 2015 And finally, all too often, we are unaware
This mobility is the result of a multi- also witnessed another record: that of the of migrants’ positive contributions to the
plicity of interrelated factors: poverty, number of lives lost – 3,772 in the Medi- economy of their departure or destina-
the search for a better life, the dispari- terranean and 5,393 worldwide. It should tion regions and countries, as well as of
ties between North and South, conflicts, not be forgotten that the phenomenon of the benefits of migration and the role that
labour needs, demographic explosion, migratory flows is global: they can occur migrants could play in climate change
and the digital revolution. But also – in the Gulf of Aden, in the Caribbean adaptation efforts.
which brings me to the goal of the Atlas of between Haiti and the south of Florida, My vision is of a world in which the poten-
Environmental Migration – environmental across the US–Mexican border, or in tial of migration is recognized and valued,
factors, particularly natural disasters and South Asia, to name but a few. but also of a world where those who do
climate change. Faced with this reality, it is no longer time not wish to migrate have the option
In 2015, more than 19 million people for sadness and regret; it is time to act. of staying in their regions and in their
were newly displaced within their coun- To do so, we must first better under- countries. Migration can be managed,
tries due to natural disasters, a figure that stand the complex links between human planned, facilitated and organized in an
does not even take slow environmental mobility, environment, and climate effective and respectful fashion. Poli-
degradation or drought into account. change. Then, we must debunk a certain cies to protect affected populations are
Human migration has always been number of misperceptions. as much a matter of prevention as of
linked to the environment, but polit- All too often, forced displacement is the ability to effectively manage migra-
ical awareness of the importance of this only mentioned when it arises because tion arising from environmental change.
factor is recent. We now know that the of natural disasters. Its human cost of We can, for instance, multiply legal
causes of the migratory crisis that the course remains shocking and much too migration channels; improve the flow of
world is currently experiencing include high, but it leads us to ignore all of the mobility via return or seasonal migration
phenomena such as climate change and other forms of mobility linked to slow programmes; and put in place temporary
its impact on soil degradation, the multi- degradation, and the lot of those who protection measures. IOM does not only
plication and intensification of sudden do not have sufficient means to resort to believe that migration is inevitable in light
events, desertification, water stress, and migration as a survival strategy. of demographic, social, economic and
recurrent drought. All too often, we neglect the internal political realities, but also that it is neces-
We also know that in the future, a signif- or inter-regional reality as well as the sary, and even desirable, for nations
icant number of people will be affected South–South dimension of this envi- to prosper, providing that it is carefully
by sea-level rise, coastal erosion, ocean ronmental migration and put forward managed and respects human rights.
acidification, and soil salinization, and that alarmist scenarios, which are barely Yet, environmental migration does not
migration will be one possible response. consistent with the reality of the situation. solely concern migration policies. It also
All of this adversity and the despera- Or indeed, conversely, we totally ignore has an impact on a large number of
tion that accompanies it lead individuals, the environmental dimension, which is other spheres, particularly development,
most often victims of criminal smug- extremely difficult to isolate due to the humanitarian action, disaster risk reduc-
gling networks, to migrate in dangerous fact that it is entangled with other causes, tion, urban and rural management poli-
conditions by crossing seas and deserts. for instance economic. cies, and, of course, climate policies, upon
VI The Atlas of Environmental Migration

which this work places particular impor- than 20 years on environmental migra- encouraging organized and effective
tance. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable tion, in collaboration with researchers responses to the challenges posed by
Development and the Sendai Frame- and university professors, which reflects this kind of migration, at both policy level
work for Disaster Risk Reduction, both current thinking in this domain. It also and for the public at large.
adopted in 2015, formally recognize portrays a vision that places migrants Finally, it is the reflection of our commit-
migrants as a key group, underlining and their communities at the heart of ment to partnership. On the one
not only their vulnerability, but also their concerns. When, destitute and hit by hand with the academic community:
specific strengths. disasters, be they sudden or progressive, researchers, cartographers and students
Since 2010, the importance of human migrants abandon their homes and loved have widely contributed to it; on the
mobility has been recognized by States ones, we must protect them and support other hand, with a broad range of actors
in several decisions adopted during them. When they are engaged in devel- involved in its conception and realiza-
climate negotiations. The reference to opment strategies and involved in adap- tion, either by providing information and
the rights of migrants in the Paris Agree- tation efforts as responsible actors, we expertise or through financial support:
ment negotiated at COP21 in December must assist them. foundations, non-governmental organi-
2015 constitutes an historic step forward With commendable honesty, the authors zations, international organizations, the
in this regard. We must now continue of the Atlas have chosen to not only public and private sectors, and particu-
efforts to integrate mobility-related demonstrate what we know about envi- larly the publishing sphere. I am espe-
issues in the framework of collective ronmental migration but also what we still cially grateful to all of them for accepting
action on climate change and its funding do not know, in order to identify the gaps to take part in this adventure.
in order to be able to address their root that need to be filled. In bringing together I very much hope that this Atlas will serve
causes and to allow migrants to assert in one vision the issues of migratory real- to share and disseminate knowledge and
themselves as responsible, conscien- ities and climatic and environmental real- information and will prove useful to all.
tious, and engaged actors in efforts ities, the authors have helped to shed
against climate change. IOM’s action in more light on the multiple links between William Lacy Swing
this regard has also made progress since these fields. Director General of the International
its Member States approved the creation The choice of an atlas – the kind of work Organization for Migration
of a division devoted to migration, envi- that demands rigour and creativity –
ronment and climate change, which has is courageous as it means having to be
been operational since the beginning able to simplify highly complex equations
of 2015. These are unmistakable signs and to represent them graphically. I am
of the recognition of the link between delighted to have been able to support
environmental and migratory issues. We this endeavour and I would like to pay
can no longer afford to ignore human tribute to the joint efforts of the three
mobility – constitutive of our time – in authors, who bring together academic
collective efforts to protect the future of and international experience.
our planet. The Atlas of Environmental Migration is
The publication of the Atlas of Environ- thus, in my opinion, much more than a
mental Migration forms part of our efforts book.
to spread an informed and balanced It is the reflection of our commitment to
message about contemporary migration. contribute to raising awareness of the
The Atlas is the fruit of specific work importance of the impacts of climate
that IOM has been undertaking for more change on human mobility; and also to
The Atlas of Environmental Migration VII

Climate change:
The ultimate injustice
I
would first like to congratulate the brutally dried, meaning that herds can become human again. The solutions to
authors of this Atlas of Environmental no longer feed, and milk is increasingly fight and adapt to climate change exist:
Migration. This contribution will help us less abundant. When it becomes impos- replace fossil fuels with eternally renew-
collectively to look differently at the situ- sible to feed their family, to live in secu- able energy from the sun, the wind, or
ation of those who have no other choice rity on the land of their ancestors, what water; restore degraded land by recul-
but to leave the land where they were other alternative do people have than to tivating it; preserve biodiversity in order
born. seek refuge elsewhere, in already over- to strengthen the resilience of places
A universal agreement, legally binding crowded capitals, or farther afield, most inhabited by human beings for so long;
the 195 States parties to the United often in the North, where you only have and facilitate migration to better adapt
Nations Framework Convention on to turn on a tap to get drinking water? and to reduce the pressure on fragile
Climate Change, is absolutely essential The social, economic, financial and ecosystems. All of this is within our grasp.
in order to limit temperature rise to no ecological crises that we are experi- It is today simply a matter of wanting and
more than 2oC by the end of the century. encing today are due to our genius, not having the courage to act. The year 2015
It is up to decision makers, and it is up to our powerlessness. Climate change is was a crucial one: it constituted a key
us all to make history if we do not want to very much the fruit of our way of life, of step in the process of two major series
have to suffer it. the economic model that arose from the of international negotiations: on devel-
Climate change is the ultimate injustice. Industrial Revolution at the end of the opment and on climate change. These
Its initial effects are already being felt and nineteenth century. Einstein said that issues must be addressed together. The
do not spare any region or continent in ‘perfection of means and confusion of challenge lying ahead is to allow a popu-
the world … But the consequences of ends seem to characterize our age’. As lation that has never been so large to
episodes of violent rainfall or prolonged the Pope highlighted in the ‘Laudato Si’ attain a quality of life without precedent.
drought, the dramatic effects of storms, Encyclical, it is up to us, believers or not,
hurricanes and typhoons, are not the to take care of our shared home. Both Nicolas Hulot
same for those living in the North and the Encyclical and the Islamic Declara- Special Envoy of the French President for the
South. And it is those who cannot take tion on Global Climate Change, adopted Protection of the Planet (2013–2016)
advantage of any of the progress that during the International Islamic Climate
has been made who are the powerless Change Symposium in August 2015 in
victims. Istanbul, stress the necessary abstemi-
Along with President Hollande, I visited ousness that we should adopt. Ever more
the Philippines where I discovered that religious leaders, scientists and intel-
after each new extreme climate episode lectuals are inviting us to build a world
– as we modestly describe them – the based on protection rather than preda-
population is always a little more desti- tion, on cooperation rather than compe-
tute, sinking each time into ever greater tition, on fair trade rather than free trade,
precariousness. Nor is Africa spared: on sharing rather than on accumulation.
throughout the continent the rainfall cycle For the Mediterranean to once again
is being disrupted. In areas where several become the symbol of freedom and of
harvests per year had always ensured civilization that it represented for centu-
populations’ subsistence, drought means ries, for it to cease to be a graveyard
only one is now possible. Cattle are also where millions of people’s hopes for
affected: pastures are flooded and then a better life are smashed, let’s simply
VIII The Atlas of Environmental Migration

A myriad of opportunities
L
ong ignored, migration and envi- provide alternatives, build social cohe- policies and programmes to attract those
ronmental degradation are both, sion and remove at least some of the trig- investments towards land opportunities.
out of necessity, forcing their way gers for radicalization and conflict. The government and its technical agen-
up political agendas. The fact that this Slow-onset events, such as desertifi- cies are creating the enabling environ-
is happening, at the same time, is not a cation, land degradation and drought, ment to attract migrant entrepreneurs by
surprise. in particular, allow us to plan and inter- offering low-rate credit and land conces-
As climate change and environmental vene. Avoiding environmentally induced sions. So far, demand for land-related
degradation occur, the world’s rural poor displacement and mass migration investment opportunities by the diaspora
are hit first and hit hardest. Three out of involves simultaneously creating resil- has been impressive.
four rural people are poor and 86 per cent ient communities and strengthening By replicating these successes and
depend on the land for survival. Glob- the resources they depend on. Climate- thinking outside of the box on the rela-
ally, at least 1.5 billion people rely on proofing the land can be simple and cost- tionship between migration and envi-
degrading land buffeted by forces seem- effective. Planning a timely intervention ronmental issues, we could harness the
ingly beyond their control. In a time of also means building on the strengths of massive potential of migrants to support
dramatic climate change, as the land dries migrants themselves. Migrants have and the resilience of their home communities.
up and sea levels surge, competition for have acquired a hugely valuable array The Atlas of Environmental Migration
vital natural resources will accelerate and of skills and experience. Given the right is a step forward in raising awareness
communities crumble. The instances of incentives, they have the capacity to of how migration and environmental
seasonal migration that can already be invest and stabilize degraded ecosystems trends are converging. Understanding
observed in response to poor harvests and whole communities. Remittances these dynamics and addressing them
may become cases of permanent migra- into and within sub-Saharan Africa by before too many lives and resources are
tion in the event of crop destruction or migrants annually amount to roughly 40 irreversibly lost is vital for the common
extreme droughts. billion dollars. A huge amount can be future of every single one of us.
Solutions to these challenges based achieved if these funds are well invested.
only on the idea of containment lead to Take Ethiopia for example. The country Monique Barbut
record-breaking poverty, human rights has set a target to restore 15 million Monique Barbut, Executive Secretary of
violations and even more forced migra- hectares of degraded and deforested the United Nations Convention to Combat
Desertification
tion. We are seeing the consequences land into productivity by 2025 — that is
of our lack of holistic action in terms one-sixth of the total land area. House-
of a soaring number of migrant deaths hold remittances of on average about
and increased suffering at sea, in the 500 dollars per year have tradition-
deserts and along international frontiers. ally been used for short-term consump-
Unless both are properly considered and tion needs like food. In the rural areas,
addressed in a timely way, social unrest however, remittances are now increas-
and more violence will inevitably follow. ingly invested in repaying debt and in
Yet, through proactive policies addressing the resilience of the land in the face of
the relationship between people and their climate change. Returning migrants
lands, we can safeguard everyone. We can are introducing new, climate-resilient
support vulnerable communities, before farming methods. This is creating jobs
they are trapped, to rehabilitate their land; for rural youth who might have otherwise
help governments to secure land tenure migrated themselves.
rights and create new jobs for seasonal Well aware of the inter-linkages between
migrants as well as increase opportu- land degradation and migration as well as
nities for land-based investments. By of the development potential of diaspora
turning around degradation trends, we investments, Senegal is also promoting
The Atlas of Environmental Migration IX

Acknowledgements
The Atlas of Environmental Migration was produced At IOM, we also thank for their specific contributions We extend our sincerest gratitude to all the experts
through a partnership between the International Mazen Aboulhosn, Baptiste Amieux, Rudolf Anich, whose research work, contributions, advice and
Organization for Migration (IOM), the Paris Institute Jean-Philippe Antolin, Amal Ataya, Joseph Ashmore, encouragement were fundamental to this project,
of Political Studies (Sciences Po Paris) and the Leena Azzam, Lorena Bacci, Eliana Barragan, and to the young and dynamic community of
University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines Tara Brian, Angel Camino, Jean-Philippe Chauzy, researchers that has recently grown in the area
(UVSQ), and thanks to the generous contributions Ricardo Cordero, Abdel Diop, Mohamed Elaraki, of environmental migration. This Atlas is above
of its funding partners. Patrizio Fanti, Rabab Fatima, Monique Frison, Ethel all a recognition of their invaluable work, which
We would particularly like to thank the following Gandia, Elsa Garcia, Salvador Gutierrez, Shintaro serves every day the cause of all the people on
partners for their continuous support: the Bernheim Higashiyama, Agi Hoire, Michele Klein-Solomon, the move in the context of environmental change,
Foundation, COST Action IS1101 of the European Frank Laczko, Gael Leloup, Ray Leyesa, Bernardo and contributes to the promotion of their rights
Union, EPA Ghana, the European Commission, the Mariano, Kerry Maze, Fernando Medina, Susanne and living conditions. Special thanks goes to
Foundation for Population, Migration, Environment Melde, Chiara Milano, Marie Stella Ndiaye, Serena the students of the ‘Environment and Migration’
(BMU–PME), the Heinrich Böll Foundation – Odianose, Nuno Nunes, Kelly O’Connor, Sarah course at the Paris School of International Affairs
European Union, the ISDT Wernaers Fund, the Oliai, Guénolé Oudry, Jorge Peraza, Karoline at Sciences Po Paris for the numerous case studies
Italian Development Cooperation, the National Popp, Patrice Quesada, Daniel Salmon, Guglielmo compiled since 2010.
Research Foundation (Belgium), the Nippon Schinina, Wonesai Sithole, Emily Skovran, Dario Finally, this publication would not have been
Foundation, the Secretariat of the United Nations Tedesco, Monique Van Hoof, Lalini Veerassamy, possible without the dedicated work and creativity
Convention to Combat Desertification, and the Rachel Velasco, Maryna Vyrvykhvost, Kristy Warren, of the talented cartographers and graphic designers
United Nations Development Programme. Sanjula Weerasinghe, and all other contributing who have invested so much of their energy
colleagues at IOM Headquarters and regional and and expertise into this project, and to whom we
The authors would like to express their utmost national offices.
gratitude to all the contributors, colleagues and particularly owe our thanks:
governmental, institutional and academic partners We are extremely grateful to the editorial team Marie-Françoise Durand, Patrice Mitrano, Thomas
who have provided support to this work. at Routledge for their continued support to this Ansart, Antoine Rio and Benoît Martin at the Atelier
endeavour from the very start and for their patience; de Cartographie de Sciences Po Paris;
We are particularly grateful to William Lacy Swing, in particular to Helen Bell, Hannah Champney,
Laura Thompson, Ovais Sarmad, Gervais Appave, Louisa Earls, Margaret Farrelly, Edward Gibbons, Freelance cartographers Aurélie Boissière, Agnès
Shahidul Haque, Jill Helke, Bernd Hemingway and Annabelle Harris, and Bethany Wright, as well as to Stienne and Philippe Rekacewicz;
Sara Abbas at IOM. Martin Barr, our copy editor. And Otto Simonett, Emmanuelle Bournay,
Special thanks goes to Emma Proust and Melissa We would also like to thank Alexander Bramble Matthias Beilstein and Carolyne Daniel at the Zoï
Tui for their assistance in research, and, for their for his precious support and advice throughout Environment Network.
continuous support to the project, to Jo De Backer, the project and for the translation of a part of the
Barbara Bendandi, Alessia Castelfranco, Sabira publication; and our layout designer Alain Chevallier
Coelho, Clara Crimella, Alex Flavell, Lorenzo for his dedicated work and creative solutions to so
Guadagno, Valerie Hagger, Kerstin Lau, Sieun Lee, many challenges.
Eva Mach, Muhammad Rizki, Alice Sironi, Mariam
Traore Chazalnoel, Elizabeth Warn, and Lorelle Yuen
at IOM.
bmu
pme
X The Atlas of Environmental Migration

The authors
Dina Ionesco is the Head of the Daria Mokhnacheva is a François Gemenne is a

Migration, Environment and Climate thematic specialist in the Migration, specialist on environmental geopolitics
Change Division at IOM. In this capacity Environment and Climate Change and migration. He is a senior research
she oversees policies and programmes Division at IOM, focusing on the impacts associate at the University of Liege (FNRS
related to the migration, environment of disasters and environmental change - Hugo Observatory) and the Executive
and climate change nexus and on societies, migration and development, Director of the ‘Politics of the Earth’
coordinates IOM’s contributions to policy and providing support to the elaboration Programme at Sciences Po in Paris. He
processes, such as the climate change of relevant programmes and projects. also teaches courses on environmental and
negotiations and the Nansen Initiative. Before joining IOM, she managed migration policies in various universities,
She has authored several publications environmental projects at UNDP in Russia, including Sciences Po and the Free
and developed numerous progammes and contributed to the DEVAST-Fukushima University of Brussels. His research mainly
including capacity-building activities for project at IDDRI in Paris. She has authored focuses on environmental migration and
decision makers. Prior to joining IOM, she and co-authored several articles, research displacement, on the social dimensions of
worked at the OECD, where she focused papers and book chapters on migration, climate change, and on adaptation policies.
on local development, after a diverse environment and climate change. She He has authored a large number of articles
experience in the non-governmental and holds an undergraduate degree from the and books on these topics.
academic sectors. She holds degrees from University of Cambridge, and studied for
Sciences Po Paris, the University of Sussex her Masters at Sciences Po Paris and
and the London School of Economics. Columbia University.
The Atlas of Environmental Migration XI

List of experts consulted
Adams, Helen Brown, Sophie Fernandes, Duval
Associate Research Fellow, Geography, Environmental Cooperation for Professor in Geography, Pontifícia
College of Life and Environmental Peacebuilding, United Nations Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais
Sciences, University of Exeter Environment Programme
Franck, Marine
Adger, Neil Bruch, Carl Climate Change Officer, United Nations
Professor of Human Geography, University Senior Attorney, Co-Director, International High Commissioner for Refugees
of Exeter Programs, Environmental Law Institute
Gaillard, JC
Ahmed, Dilruba Brügger, Silvia Associate Professor, School of
Director of Social and Economic Division, Director Climate and Energy Programme, Environment, University of Auckland
Center for Environmental and Geographic Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung European Union
Information Services Ginetti, Justin
Chenevat, Laurène Head of Data and Analysis, Internal
Aragón-Durand, Fernando Mirova Displacement Monitoring Centre
Researcher, International Consultant
(formerly at the Inter-American Institute for Chun, Jane Gourion-Retore, Mathilde
Global Change Research and ODI) Independent consultant and researcher
Research, Policy and Foresight Section,
Sector for Social and Human Sciences,
Baker, Louise Couture, Jean-Louis UNESCO
External Relations, Policy and Advocacy Advisor to the Executive Secretary,
United Nations Convention to Combat
Coordinator, United Nations Convention to
Desertification
Grassani, Alessandro
Combat Desertification Photographer and freelance journalist
Balamaci, Aida-Bianca Crowley, John

Chief of Section, Research, Policy and
Griffiths, Emma
Knowledge Management Expert, United Head of Communications, UK Government
Foresight, Sector for Social and Human
Nations Development Programme Office for Science
Sciences, UNESCO
Barbut, Monique De Sherbinin, Alex Guélat, Jérémie

Executive Secretary of the United Nations PhD Student and Teaching Assistant,
Associate Director for Science
Convention to Combat Desertification Institute of Geography, University of
Applications, Center for International Earth
Science Information Network, Columbia Neuchâtel
Bintanja, Richard University
Senior Climate Scientist, Royal Hanson, Susan
Netherlands Meteorological Institute Diniz, Alexandre M.A Research Fellow, Engineering and the
Coordinator, Geography Postgraduate Environment, University of Southampton
Birkeland, Nina Programme, Pontifícia Universidade
Senior Advisor, Disasters and Climate Católica de Minas Gerais Hasegawa, Reiko
Change Partnerships and Policy Research Fellow, Politics of the Earth
Department, Norwegian Refugee Council Duvat, Virginie programme at Médialab Sciences Po, and
Research Fellow, University of La Rochelle PhD Student at the University of Liège
Black, Richard (Hugo Observatory)
Pro-Director (Research and Enterprise), El Raey, Mohamed
School of Oriental and African Studies, Professor of Environmental Physics, Henry, Kevin
University of London University of Alexandria Consultant, Analyst and Project
Coordinator, Climate Smart Smallholder
Bower, Erica El-Labbane, Chirine Agriculture, Food Security for All, former
Disasters and Displacement Consultant, Communication Officer, Nansen Initiative CARE France Director
Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre Secretariat
Henry, Sabine
Brimblecombe, Simon Entwisle, Chapuisat Professor, Geography department,
Project Coordinator, Social Security Policy Hannah University of Namur
Analysis and Research, International Social Research and Partnerships Officer,
Security Association Nansen Initiative Secretariat Hinkel, Jochen
Senior Researcher, Global Climate Forum
Bronen, Robin Esipova, Neli
Executive Director, Alaska Institute for Director of Research, Global Migration Hulot, Nicolas
Justice, Senior Research Scientist, Institute and FSU and Eastern Europe Regional Special Envoy of the French President for the
of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Director, Gallup World Poll Protection of the Planet from 2013 to 2016
XII The Atlas of Environmental Migration

Islam, K.M. Nabiul Nicholls, Robert J. Tachie-Obeng, Emmanuel
Senior Research Fellow, Bangladesh Professor of Coastal Engineering, Senior Programme Officer, Environmental
Institute for Development Studies University of Southampton Protection Agency, Ghana
Jaervinen, Petra O’Hara, Molly Thomas, Alice

Partnerships, Solutions for Displacement Paris School of International Affairs, Climate Displacement Program Manager,
and Reintegration, United Nations Sciences Po Refugees International
Development Programme
Pagnotta, Antonio Venturini, Tommaso
Jensen, David Photographer and freelance journalist Associate Professor and Coordinator of
Head of Environmental Cooperation
Médialab Research, Sciences Po Lecturer
for Peacebuilding, United Nations
Perrin, Nathalie at Digital Humanities Department at King’s
Environment Programme
Max Planck Institute for International, College
European and Regulatory Procedural Law,
Kaenzig, Raoul formerly migration researcher at CEDEM,
Teaching assistant (postgraduate student) Vigil, Sara
University of Liège Research Fellow F.R.S-FNRS, University
at the Institute of Geography, University of
Neuchâtel of Liège (Hugo Observatory) Lecturer at
Piguet, Etienne Sciences Po
Professor in Geography, University of
Le De, Loic Neuchâtel, Vice-President, Federal
Professional Teaching Fellow, School of Warner, Koko
Commission for Migration
Environment, University of Auckland Manager of the subprogramme on
Impacts, Vulnerability and Risks,
Lincke, Daniel Pinto, Al Adaptation programme, UNFCCC
Senior Media Designer, Center for
Researcher, Global Climate Forum,
International Earth Science, Columbia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
University
Watter, Urs
Research Scientific Assistant, Foundation for
Population, Migration and the Environment
Lux, Stéphanie Pirard, Romain
Advisor to Nicolas Hulot, Special Envoy of Research Fellow Forests, Biodiversity,
Agriculture, Center for International Weber, Walter J.
the French President for the Protection of Master of Law, Attorney at Law, Member,
the Planet (2013–2016) Forestry Research
New York Bar, Weber Law Office,
Chairman of the Board, Foundation for
Magnan, Alexandre Pires Ramos, Erika
Population, Migration and the Environment
Research Fellow, IDDRI Founder, RESAMA, South American
Network for Environmental Migrations
Weikmans, Romain
Mauelshagen, Franz Postdoctoral Fellow, Environment and
Senior Fellow, Institute for Advanced Pugliese, Anita
Managing Consultant, The Gallup Society, Brown University
Sustainability Studies, Potsdam
Organization
McKinnon, Matthew Yonetani, Michelle
Specialist, CVF Support, United Nations Ramet, Philippe Senior Strategic Advisor on Disaster-
Development Programme Advisor on Environment, Transport Induced Displacement, Internal
and COP21, Permanent Mission Displacement Monitoring Centre
Meneghetti, Luisa of France to the United Nations
Research Fellow, Internal Displacement Office and other international Zaccai, Edwin
Monitoring Centre organizations in Geneva Professor, Centre of Studies for
Sustainable Development, Université libre
Milan, Andrea Randall, Alex de Bruxelles and Sciences Po
Programme Analyst at UN Women, Coordinator, Climate Outreach Information
formerly Research Associate at UNU-EHS Network Zickgraf, Caroline
Migration Researcher, University of Liège
Müller, Valerie Simonett, Otto (Hugo Observatory), and Lecturer at
Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI Director, Zoï Environment Network Sciences Po
The Atlas of Environmental Migration XIII

List of abbreviations and
acronyms
ACHR American Convention on Human Rights DfID UK Government’s Department for IDDRI Institut du développement durable et des
International Development relations internationales (Institute for sustainable
ADB Asian Development Bank
development and international relations)
DRC Democratic Republic of the Congo
ALBA Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our
IDM International Dialogue on Migration
Americas DRM disaster risk management
IDMC Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre
AOSIS Alliance of the Small Island States DRR disaster risk reduction
IDP Internally Displaced Person
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations DTM Displacement Tracking Matrix
IFAD International Fund for Agricultural
AU African Union EAC East African Community
Development
AUC African Union Commission EACH-FOR Environmental Change and Forced IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute
Migration Scenarios
BBC British Broadcasting Corporation IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and
EC European Commission Red Crescent Societies
BCEAO Banque centrale des Etats de l’Afrique de
l’Ouest (Central Bank of West African States) ECLAC United Nations Economic Commission IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on
BIMSTEC Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi- for Latin America and the Caribbean Development
Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation ECOWAS Economic Community of West ILC International Law Commission
BMU-PME Stiftung für Bevölkerung, Migration African States
ILO International Labour Organization
und Umwelt (BMU)-Foundation for Population, EJ Atlas Atlas of Environmental Justice
IO International Organization
Migration and Environment (PME)
ELI Environmental Law Institute
IOM International Organization for Migration (see
CAT Convention against Torture and Other Cruel,
EM-DAT Emergency Events Database also OIM)
Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment
EPA Ghana Ghana Environmental Protection IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
CC climate change
Agency Change
CCCM Camp Coordination and Camp
EU European Union ISSA International Social Security Association
Management
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the ISSP Institut Supérieur des Sciences de la
CEDAW Convention on the Elimination of All Population at the University of Ouagadougou
United Nations
Forms of Discrimination against Women
FEMA Federal Emergency Management IT Information Technology
CEDEM Center for Ethnic and Migration Studies
Agency IUCN International Union for Conservation of
(Centre d’Etudes de l’Ethnicité et des Migrations),
University of Liège Foresight Foresight Project of the United Nature
Kingdom Government Office for Sciences kBq Kilobecquerel
CEGIS Center for Environmental and Geographic
Information Services, Bangladesh GCF Green Climate Fund KNMI Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch
CERPOD Centre d’Etudes et de Recherche en GDP gross domestic product Instituut (Dutch Royal Meteorological Institute)
Population pour le Développement in Bamako GEF Global Environmental Facility LIENSs Laboratoire Littoral Environnement et
Sociétés, University of La Rochelle
CHRR Center for Hazards and Risk Research, GFMD Global Forum on Migration and
University of Columbia Development MCII Munich Climate Insurance Initiative
CIAT Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical MDG Millennium Development Goals
GHG greenhouse gas
CIESIN Center for International Earth Science MECC Migration, Environment and Climate
GIS Geographic Information System
Information Network, Columbia University Change
GMG Global Migration Group
CIFOR Center for International Forestry Research MECLEP Migration, Environment and Climate
HBF Heinrich Böll Foundation (see also HBS) Change: Evidence for Policy
CO2 carbon dioxide
HBS Heinrich Böll Stiftung (see also HBF) MICIC Migrants in Countries in Crisis Initiative
COHRE Centre on Housing Rights and Evictions
HFA Hyogo Framework for Action MRS Migration Research Series
COIN Climate Outreach Information Network
IAI Inter-American Institute for Global Change NAP National Adaptation Plan
COP Conference of the Parties to the United Research
Nations Framework Convention on Climate NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action
Change IASC Inter-Agency Standing Committee NASA-SEDAC National Aeronautics and Space
COST European Cooperation in Science and IASS Institute for Advanced Sustainability Administration’s Socioeconomic Data and
Technology Studies, Potsdam Applications Center
ICCPR International Covenant on Civil and NGI Norwegian Geotechnical Institute

CPI Climate Policy Initiative
Political Rights NGO non-governmental organization
CRC Convention on the Rights of the Child
ICERD International Convention on NI Nansen Initiative
CRED Centre for Research on the Epidemiology the Elimination of All Forms of Racial
of Disasters NRC Norwegian Refugee Council
Discrimination
CRS Convention on the Reduction of NWRD National Water Resources Database,
ICESCR International Covenant on Economic,
Statelessness Bangladesh
Social and Cultural Rights
CSSP Convention relating to the Status of OAS Organization of American States
ICMPD International Centre for Migration
Stateless Persons OAU Organization of African Unity
Policy Development
CVF Climate Vulnerable Forum OCHA Office for the Coordination of
ICRC International Committee of the Red Cross
CVM Climate Vulnerability Monitor Humanitarian Affairs
ICRMW International Convention on the
DCCED Department of Commerce, Community Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers ODA Official Development Aid
and Economic Development, Alaska and Members of Their Families ODI Overseas Development Institute
DECCMA Deltas, Vulnerability and Climate ICRPD International Convention on the Rights OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation
Change : Migration and Adaptation) of Persons with Disabilites and Development
XIV The Atlas of Environmental Migration

OECD DAC Organization for Economic SOAS School of Oriental and African Studies UNGA United Nations General Assembly
Co-operation and Development’s Development SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Assistance Committee UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for
TCLM Temporary and Circular Labour Migration Refugees
OIM Organisation internationale pour les Programme
migrations (see also IOM) UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund
TPMA Thematic Programme on Migration and
OSCE Organization for Security and Co-operation Asylum UNISDR United Nations International Strategy for
in Europe
TPS Temporary Protection Status Disaster Reduction
PIK Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung
(Potsdam Institute for Climate Research) UDHR Universal Declaration of Human Rights UNU-EHS United Nations University Institute for
UK United Kingdom Environment and Human Security
PPGG Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia
(Postgraduate Programme in Geography at PUC UN United Nations UP Unió de Pagesos de Cataluña (Catalan
Minas) Farmers’ Union)
UNCBD United Nations Convention on Biological
PRONASOL National Solidarity Program Diversity
USA United States of America
(Programa Nacional de Solidaridad) UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat
PUC Minas Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Desertification USAID United States Agency for International
Minas Gerais (Pontifical Catholic University of Development
UNDESA United Nations Department of Economic
Minas Gerais) and Social Affairs USD United States Dollar
RCP Regional Consultative Process on Migration UNDP United Nations Development Programme
USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
RESAMA Rede Sul Americana para as UNECE United Nations Economic Commission
Migraçaões Ambientais (South American for Europe V20 Vulnerable Twenty Group of Ministers of
Network for Environmental Migration) Finance
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
RSE Recognized Seasonal Employers Programme WB World Bank
UNEP/GRID-Geneva United Nations Environment
SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Programme Global Resource Information WCDRR World Conference on Disaster Risk
Cooperation Database Geneva
Reduction
SADC Southern African Development Community UNESCAP Economic and Social Commission for
Asia and the Pacific WFP World Food Programme
SDG Sustainable Development Goal
UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific WHO World Health Organization
SIDS Small Island Developing States
and Cultural Organization
SLM Sustainable Land Management WMO World Meteorological Organization
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention
SLR sea-level rise on Climate Change WWF World Wildlife Fund
The Atlas of Environmental Migration XV

Current migration
and environmental
migration
T
he first theories on migration, elaborated A polymorphic concept
at the end of the nineteenth century, took Climate change brought about the ‘rediscovery’ of the
account of environmental conditions. But environment as a determining factor in migration, from the
this factor was rapidly forgotten, a state of moment that it was – justly – described as a considerable
affairs that continued up to the beginning of threat to human populations, which would first and foremost
the 1990s. materialize in the form of massive population displacement.
Current migration policies carry the scars of Although some precursory work on this phenomenon was
this oversight. They are still grounded in a touched upon in 1948, and then during the 1970s, the issue
binary understanding of migration inherited from the post-war started to be seriously addressed in the 1990s, notably following
years: either migrants are forced to flee for political reasons, the publication of a report commissioned by the United
in which case they can seek international protection, or they Nations Environment Programme in 1985. Since the middle
move voluntarily for economic reasons, and their reception of the 2000s, the impacts of climate change have become a
is thus solely the responsibility of States. This binarism has reality and the world has been rocked by several major natural
clearly resurfaced during the summer of 2015 with the influx disasters. Environmental migration has thus been included on
of refugees, notably Syrians, to Europe, and the resulting the migration studies agenda.
asylum crisis. Governments and the media have hastened to This generic concept, however, conceals a myriad of different
stress the distinction between refugees (political) and migrants dynamics. The term environmental migrants can include both
(economic), as if sorting were necessary in order to take in one Bangladeshi villagers forced to abandon their land due to
group and send back the other, whose migratory project and repeated flooding and American retirees moving to Florida to
presence would be illegitimate. It is, however, recognized that spend more time in the sun; or the inhabitants of small Pacific
such a distinction does not stand up to the reality of migratory islands that migrate abroad before sea-level rise makes their
dynamics, in which political, economic and environmental land uninhabitable and Haitians housed in a camp because
factors are interwoven. their homes have been destroyed by an earthquake. It can
The emergence of environmental migration at the forefront be argued that the only thing these different instances of
of the scene since the middle of the 2000s has shattered this migration have in common is their link to the environment.
dichotomy. It has not only demonstrated that the environmental Environmental migration can be forced and voluntary,
factor had quite simply not been considered when migration temporary and permanent, domestic and international, without
law and refugee law were shaped following the Second World forgetting the flip side, namely the forced immobility of many
War, despite the fact that this phenomenon is extremely old; populations, trapped by the impacts of environmental changes.
but also that migration could act as a climate change adaptation The term ‘environmental migration’ covers such a range of
solution – a fact that has called into question the traditional different situations that it sometimes even seems inadequate
dividing line between forced and voluntary migration. and tends to be replaced by the term ‘mobility’. Mobility, a
more consensual term, includes different forms of movement
and refers to the ability to migrate. It also helps to circumvent
the extremely blurred division between forced and voluntary
migration.
2 The Atlas of Environmental Migration

Different types of migration
Voluntary Voluntary
Proactive Proactive
Short-term Long-term
Voluntary
Reactive Voluntary
Short-term Reactive
Long-term
Independent of empirical reality, these
terms are also political constructs that Voluntary
are useful for highlighting the growing
Forced
importance of environmental degradation Proactive
as a factor of migration. It is not so much a Long-term
Forced
matter of creating a particular category of Proactive Level of
migration as of drawing attention, as this Short-term coercion
Proactive
Atlas does, to a neglected factor, whose
importance will increase in the future. Level of
preparedness
An awkward definition Reactive

Forced
How then can environmental migrants

be defined? In the absence of a Forced
Short- Duration Long- Forced
term term Reactive
legal definition, or at least one that is Reactive Long-term
Short-term
internationally accepted, IOM’s definition
is often the one used: ‘Environmental Source: Conceived by F. Gemenne. © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015.
migrants are persons or groups of
persons who, predominantly for reasons of sudden or is really taking the risk of deciding either way, and everyone
progressive change in the environment that adversely affects is satisfied with the ambiguity arising from a definition that is
their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual intentionally broad and flexible.
homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently,
and who move either within their country or abroad’. Numbers and words
Deliberately broad, in order to encompass all types of This first part of the Atlas of Environmental Migration initially
population movement, this definition is under discussion within deals with the estimates of the current number of environmental
the academic community as it includes, by definition, a large migrants and the different projections that have been
number of people, a fact that may alarm certain governments developed. On what methods and models are these estimates
and reduce their funding capacity in the future. and projections based? What types of migration are referred
If it is a given that all migration is intrinsically multi-causal, should to and how exactly are they measured? What are the criteria
the definition include all those who migrate on environmental used to distinguish them? Part 1, while demonstrating how
grounds, be they marginal in the decision or not, or only those research on these issues has developed considerably over the
for whom environmental degradation is the determining factor? past few years, also underlines the complexity of the equation
Should it only cover cases of forced migration or all forms of linking migratory, environmental and climatic variables, and
mobility? And what about forced immobility? underscores the difficulty of establishing clear categories of
All of these questions are not purely methodological, but also migration, particularly when it comes to discerning them on the
political, as the nature and wording of the definition will give ground.
rise to the formulation of responses. At the current time, no one
The Atlas of Environmental Migration 3

A long history
Examples of population case, from the broader socio-economic The Dust Bowl migration was the single
movements associated with context. Dust storms resulting from most important population movement
environmental changes and severe droughts and poor agricultural within the United States, involving about
disasters are numerous techniques depleted arable land, and left 2.5 million migrants, among whom about
throughout history. thousands of farmers from Oklahoma, 200,000 moved to California. Despite
Texas and Arkansas with no choice but the historical significance of this event,
In 1755, the earthquake of Lisbon to sell their farms and move westwards the role of environmental changes as
destroyed most of the city, inducing in the 1930s. The environmental ‘push’ drivers of migration had been largely
mass displacements towards other parts factors were obvious in the migration overlooked until the human impacts of
of Portugal, with some of the displaced decision, but these factors were mixed climate change became a reality.
later returned to Lisbon. The Dust Bowl with the broader economic context of the
migration is another classic example of Great Depression, as well as inadequate Not only climate change
mass migration associated with envi- farming techniques. The prospects of a Yet it is important to remember that
ronmental events, though such events better life in California played a crucial environmental migration is not only a
cannot be disentangled, as is often the role as a ‘pull’ factor. climate change issue. On the contrary,
environmental conditions have always
been determinant in the distribution of
the population on the planet. Around
45,000 years ago, Europe was settled by
modern humans thanks to its favourable
climate and abundant resources. Coastal
and deltaic regions were settled because
their soil was more fertile. It is thus likely
that climate change, as a major, global
environmental disruption, will also affect
the distribution of the planet’s population.
Indeed, if environmental conditions are
key explanatory factors of the patterns
of historical population settlements,
it is probable that land degradation,
ecosystem disruption and resource
depletion induced by climate change will
‘Lisbon in ruins’, engraving by J. A. Steisslinger, 18th Century. COURTESY OF THE MUSEUM OF LISBON. change these patterns of settlement.
Human migration and environment throughout history
Migration to southern
Mesopotamia Migration waves
-4000 in Central Europe
Prolonged drought pushes 300 to 500
Migration through populations from northern
Fall of Akkadian
Empire Migrations Period in
Bering Strait Mesopotamia to the
-2200 Central Europe and
-25 000 to -20 000 Tigris-Euphrates Delta
America weakening of the
A land bridge across the offering rich coastal Decline of the Empire
Migration Roman Empire partly
Bering Strait exposed by habitats as a result of partially due to droughts related to droughts and
from affecting the entire region
the drop in sea levels post-glacial sea level rise. deforestation
Mesopotamia during the Wisconsin This results in the from the Aegean Sea to the
Europe to Europe Indus, drying up irrigation
glaciation likely to have development of irrigated
-50 000 to allowed migration from agriculture and emergence canals and causing the
-40 000 Asia to North America of the first cities abandonment of cities
Asia
-50 000 -40 000 -30 000 -20 000 - 4000 -3000 -2000 0 100 200 300 400
Drought Glaciation Climate and diseases Earthquake Human-made degradation

Current migration and environmental migration
Atmospheric surface air temperature and global sea level since 50,000 BC, relative to present
Time
- 50 000 - 45 000 - 40 000 - 35 000 - 30 000 - 25 000 - 20 000 - 15 000 - 10 000 - 5 000 0 1950
0 0
-2 - 10
-4
- 20
-6
-8 Atmospheric - 30
- 10 temperatures
- 40
- 12 - 50
- 14
- 60
- 16
- 18 Global sea level - 70
- 20 - 80
Atmospheric
- 90
temperatures
Deg C - 100
- 110
Global
sea level - 120
Metres - 130
Source: Bintanja et al. (2005). © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Stienne, 2015.
Major demographic changes around 1200–1300 BC: whole villages 1852; more than 2 million people fled
Some key catastrophic events and and regions were then abandoned. In the country, and many settled in the
the displacement they induced have Greenland, Viking settlements disap- United States.
also dramatically altered the demo- peared around 1400 BC, as they could not Despite their historical importance, such
graphic patterns of certain cities and survive the Little Ice Age. examples of migration flows remain little
regions. Some regions emptied them- Other regions experienced major demo- known and sparsely documented, which
selves almost completely: around 2200 graphic shifts because of environmental might have given rise to the belief that
BC, the fall of the Akkadian Empire, in disruptions: the population of Ireland was climate change created a new type of
what today is Iraq, was associated with reduced by about one-quarter because migration. History proves otherwise.
major droughts that extended from of the Great Irish Famine of 1845 to
the Aegean Sea to the Indus. Droughts
were also responsible for the decline of
the Anasazi empire in Central America Collapse of Norse
settlements in
Greenland
Decline of the 1400 to 1500
Anasazi Soil degradation, failure
Decline of the Mayan 1150 to 1350 to adapt to the
civilization Great Irish Famine
Successive mega environment and to
800 to 900 1845 to 1852
droughts in the extremely cold Lisbon earthquake
Decline associated with the present-day Four temperatures, and Potato blight caused by
Huns invasion and tsunami warmer and damper
collapse of agricultural productivity, Corners region of the conflict caused the
406 1755 weather led to the
wars and famines largely caused by United States and abandonment of
Cold temperatures severe droughts and deforestation concomitant settlements by Norse Nearly a quarter of the destruction of crops
likely to have caused resulting in the depopulation and abandonment of Anasazi farmers and herders in city's population lost resulting in an unprece-
the freezing of the abandonment of cities settlements Greenland their lives, and tens of dented famine.
Rhine River, allowing thousands were 2 million people emigrated
the Huns to invade Gaul displaced to improvised and 1 million died, reducing
d and weaken the Roman camps, and to the rest the total population in
Empire of Europe Ireland by 20–25%
400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Source: Bintanja et al. (2005). © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Stienne, 2015.

A political issue
Although research on Migration, environment and climate change terms on Google Search
environmental migration remains The size of the words is proportional to the number of pages returned by Google.com when searching for each term (2012)
relatively new, it has been

Environmental Environmental
marked by many conflicting
Climate Refugee
viewpoints and perspectives,
refugee displacee
reflecting different policy
agendas. Environmental
Climate-
induced Ecological migrant
refugee
migration has also become a migrant Eco-
political construct, which does Environmentally-
not always match empirical induced Climate migrant
reality. migrant Environmentally migrant Eco-
displaced
Early studies on the topic were dominated
person Climate-
refugee
by the stark divide between an alarmist induced
(or maximalist) perspective and a scep- Environmental Ecologically migrant
tical (or minimalist) perspective. The

migrant Ecological displaced
alarmist perspective, upheld primarily
by environmental scholars and NGOs,
refugee person
Source: Venturini et al. (2012) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015.
viewed migration as an unavoidable
by-product of climate change, a humani-
tarian disaster in the making. Meanwhile, of a failure to adapt to environmental public perceptions and policy debates,
migration scholars usually adopted a changes, but rather as a powerful adap- revealing a certain discrepancy between
more sceptical perspective, insisting tation strategy. This radical change in the empirical realities of environmental
that migration was always multi-causal the framing of environmental migration migration and its political construc-
and there was no reason to create a new was first induced by growing empirical tion. Some continue to view environ-
category of ‘environmental migra- research, which showed that migration mental migration as a diversion from
tion’. The opposition was not just a was not necessarily a last resort for people the political and economic root causes
disciplinary divide, as both perspec- confronted with environmental changes. of migration, while others focus on the
tives were promoting a different policy This suited the agenda of many inter- humanitarian disaster that it represents.
agenda: ‘alarmists’ were keen to national organizations, keen to portray Increasingly, critical perspectives (from
alert policy-makers to the threats of migration in a more positive light. Migra- post-colonial studies among others)
climate change, whereas sceptics were tion was ‘officially’ acknowledged as an have also challenged the very concept
concerned that a new migration category adaptation strategy in the Cancún Adap- of environmental migration. Policy-wise,
might scare off governments and lead tation Framework, adopted in December while many have insisted that migra-
to even more stringent migration poli- 2010. Since then, international nego- tion ought to be promoted as an adap-
cies. The alarmist perspective, however, tiations on climate change have often tation strategy, it also often continues
was dominant; soon enough, environ- been considered as the most appropriate to be framed as a threat to security and
mental migrants became the human face policy forum in which to address environ- stability, with claims that mass migra-
of climate change, and migration came mental migration. tion flows could lead to competition
to be considered as an unavoidable for natural resources, social unrest and
by-product of climate change. Inhabit- Competing framings conflicts.
ants from small island States in particular, In 2011, the Foresight report on Migra-
threatened by sea-level rise, were instru- tion and Global Environmental Change,
mental in the endeavour to prompt polit- commissioned by the UK government to
ical action on climate change. a panel of distinguished scholars, formal-
ized a certain consensus in the scien-
A Copernican revolution tific community as to the patterns and
Around 2010, however, another concep- key characteristics of the environment–
tualization emerged as migration came migration nexus. Despite this consensus,
to be viewed no longer as the signal different framings continue to exist in

Demonstration in favour of Tuvalu’s proposal for a new binding protocol at the COP15. Bella Center, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2009. © GREENPEACE FINLAND 2009
The evolution of the discourses on environmental migration

Marginal discourse Migration
Discourse Dominant discourse (mainstream) Origin of the discourse
scholars
Antagonism Reconciliation Evolution
1997–1998 2009–2010
Not the
Epiphenomenon root cause
Migration scholars
Migration Sceptics
scholars
Adaptation
strategy
Migration scholars
Environmental scholars
International organizations
Policy-makers
1990s
2007-2008
Humanitarian
disaster Threat
Environmental scholars Think tanks

Media Defence sector Source: Conceived by F. Gemenne
NGOs Military © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),
Gemenne, Boissière, 2015

A world in motion
Australia and
New Zealand
Main migration pathways, as per 2013

The map does not represent actual Note:
flows of migrants in 2013: the arrows The term ‘migrants’ refers to individuals born in, or
show the origin and destination holding the citizenship of, a country other than
of migrants over time. Irregular that in which they live.
migration is not accounted for. The UN DESA figures report the stock of migrants
Regions referred to in this map are by country as per 2013, and are derived from data
geographical regions based on the obtained mainly from most recent national
UN DESA classification. population censuses.
Migrant stock, 2013 South-East Asia

(millions) and Pacific
East
Asia
18.4 migration corridors
between regions
10 intra-regional migration corridors
1 Russia India
0.4
Central
Asia,
Only stocks above 400,000 Belarus, Indian
are represented (94% of total Ukraine subcontinent
international migrant stock)
North
America
Persian
Outside Gulf
Schengen Near East
and Caucasus
Mexico
Schengen
North
Africa
Central America East and
and Caribbean Central Africa
West
Africa
Southern
Africa
South
America
Source: UNDESA (2013b) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015
International migration Migration is a defining feature of turmoil, fast technological progress, and
trends, 1965–2013 As a % the modern world order. economic and demographic changes,
of the population has taken on a much more global and
3.2
Some have referred to the last decades pervasive scope. Compared to previous
of the twentieth century as the ‘age of migration patterns, contemporary popu-
3
migration’, where increased and accel- lation movements are more diverse in
erated movements of people have their shape, direction and drivers.
2.8
become central to national and interna-
tional politics, the globalized economy, Moving North or South?
2.6
social progress and individual well- While policy discourse tends to focus
being. People have always migrated in on the implications of migration from
2.4
search of better opportunities and fled developing countries to developed
poverty, violence and environmental regions, recent studies show that South–
2.2
change; however, mobility in the last few South movements (from one devel-
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: UNDESA (2013a) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),
decades, shaped by past colonial migra- oping country to another) are as large
Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015 tion, the twentieth century’s political as movements from South to North

Some estimates and demographic dynamics, is estimated

People estimated Refugees worldwide in to greatly exceed international migration.
People newly displaced to be displaced forcibly 2014, including 14.4 This type of migration is difficult to quan-
by rapid-onset disasters by development projects million refugees of
on average every year concern to UNHCR, and tify, as data availability and methodolo-
26.4
every year
15 M
5.1 million Palestinian
refugees under gies vary from one country to another.
UNRWA’s mandate However, the United Nations estimates
19.5 M
763
Internal migrants,
million
living outside of their region of birth (2005) that there are 763 million people world-
wide living within their country but
outside their region of birth. Estimates
2.44
People in forced
also exist for internal displacement due
labour as a result
of trafficking at
million
1.8 Asylum seekers
to conflict and violence, which is moni-
any given time
million tored by the UNHCR and IDMC.
International migrants,
living outside of their country of birth million People displaced by conflict and
231.5
or citizenship (2013)
People affected violence within the borders of their Learning from existing patterns
by statelessness own country, including 11 million The complexity and variety of methodol-
38
(at least) people newly displaced in 2014
10 M
ogies designed to calculate the number
of migrants, whether international or
million
internal, makes any comparison between
figures on different types of migration
40,000
million
Lives lost during
migration since 2000
difficult, and often meaningless. In addi-
tion, there are still many unknowns; for
Sources: Cernea (2006), IDMC (2015a, 2015b), ILO (2005), IOM (2013, 2014), UNDESA (2013c, 2013d), UNHCR (2015)
© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015 instance, it is hard to determine to what
extent existing migration patterns are
influenced by gradual environmental
(from developing to developed coun- linked to environmental factors. Accurate change.
tries), and represent more than one-third statistics by type of migration are seldom The study of global migration patterns
of total international migration. Migra- available, except when migrants fall into helps to shed light on the complexity
tion between developed countries repre- a clear legal category or benefit from of the subject: in most cases, environ-
sents around one-fifth of global flows, special assistance, such as refugees or mental migration will be shaped by
and a growing percentage of migrants those benefiting from family reunifica- pre-existing channels at the national,
move from North to South. In absolute tion programmes, who are recorded by regional and international levels. It
terms, there are more migrants coming relevant national and international agen- is therefore essential to understand
from developing countries, where the cies. In most cases, however, migratory existing migration systems, and the diffi-
population is higher; however, in relative situations are complex, rarely fall into culties in terms of estimation, assess-
terms, people from developed countries a single category, and may evolve over ment and categorization, which are also
are more likely to migrate. time. Furthermore, the global figure does relevant to the study of mobility related
not account for a number of migratory to environmental change.
Assessing global migration situations for which statistics are hard
The number of international migrants to obtain – typically the case of many Four migration pathways, 2013
has more than doubled over the last 30 forced forms of cross-border migration,
In millions
years and, despite a slowdown following including victims of smuggling and traf-
the 2008 global economic crisis, reached ficking, and an exponentially growing 54 North
232 million migrants in 2013, which number of irregular migrants. Quanti-
represents around 3.3 per cent of the fying these types of migration is chal-
global population. This global figure, lenging, due to their hidden nature, and
which measures ‘stocks’ of migrants in only rough estimates are available for 75.6 13.3
a given country at a given moment in these flows. Finally, the global figure
time as recorded through national statis- does not reflect seasonal, circular or
tics and censuses, shows just one facet other temporary movements, which may
of the complex world migration patterns, also include temporary cross-border South 77.6
and provides no indication as to the displacement due to natural disasters.
reasons for and nature of movements.
Behind it lie various types of migration An age of mass internal migration
across borders, including labour migra- The focus of political discourse on inter- Calculations made using UN DESA classification of countries
into developing and developed regions (see
tion, migration for education, refugee national migration diverts attention away http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49.htm).
For a detailed discussion on ‘North’-‘South’ classification and
movements, family reunification, return from one of the predominant forms of terminology, please see IOM World Migration Report 2013.
migration, or retirement and amenity migration: internal migration within coun-
Source: IOM (2013) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),
migration, some of which may also be tries, driven by urbanization, economic Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015

Geography of
research
Research on the links Regional distribution

between migration, Yet, the understanding of local impacts
environment and climate change and issues, and empirical data in
has grown significantly. particular, remains limited and unbal-
anced. The University of Neuchâtel
While migration and the environment is has recorded 447 empirical studies on Hotspots and blind spots
not a new area of research (the first publi- migration and environment published Some areas and regions in the world
cations date back to the 1980s), a more across the globe from 1980 to 2014. receive much more attention than others.
recent wave of interest and demand for Most studies focused on Africa (167 Countries such as Bangladesh or Small
evidence helped to fuel new research in studies), Asia-Pacific (137) and the Island Developing States have become
the early 2000s: the number of publica- Americas (124). In contrast, only 11 emblematic of climate change and
tions produced on the topic has grown studies focused on Europe and 8 on migration. The plight of hurricane victims
from around 10 per year in the 1990s to countries in the Middle East. in New Orleans or the challenges facing
nearly 10 times as many in the last few
160
years, averaging almost 100 publications
on migration and environment every
year since 2008. 140
Research and policy awareness 120

The state of knowledge on the migra-
tion–environment nexus has improved Number of publications and case studies 100
considerably over the past 10 years, and on migration, environment
flagship studies and publications such as and climate change (1980–2013)
the 2009 EACH-FOR project or the 2011 80
Foresight Report have contributed to the Source: Piguet et al. (2015)
© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015
development of a more solid theoretical 60
framework, helping to understand and
conceptualize migration in the context of All publications
40
global environmental change. This may Empirical
in turn have contributed to raising policy case studies only
and global awareness as well as encour- 20
aging further research on this subject.

0
1980 1990 2000 2010

Research on migration,
environment and climate change
Number of case studies
by country studied
55
25
10
5
1
communities in Shishmaref or Tuvalu Most studied countries

(% of total number of case studies globally)
have captured academic and media
attention. A few countries in West Africa
0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 12.3 Not available
and in the Greater Horn of Africa, where
Source: Piguet et al. (2015) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015
desertification affects pastoralists, have
also attracted much research.
Meanwhile, many very vulnerable regions and Central and South Africa. Evidence is environmental migration in areas which
and countries receive less attention: very weak in Europe, despite increasingly receive less visibility, but which are no
there remain numerous blind spots in frequent small-scale disasters displacing less affected by the impacts of environ-
Central and South America, Central Asia, local communities every year, and in the mental change.
Middle East, despite frequent weather
shocks affecting farmers.
About the CliMig database
Regional distribution North–South research divide
of case studies on migration Another geographic imbalance is related The CliMig bibliographic database
and environment (1980–2014) is a project undertaken by the Insti-
to unequal research capacity in devel-
(%)
tute of Geography of the University of
oping and developed countries: while Neuchâtel (Switzerland), as part of an
most research focuses on countries effort to facilitate access to knowledge
in the South, it is mostly conducted and research on environmental migra-
Americas
tion. The database is the first compre-
Africa 28 by researchers based in the North.
hensive search tool for both researchers
37 Improving research capacity in devel- and a wider audience, bringing together
oping regions and countries is essential international publications and case
in order to build stronger evidence on studies focusing specifically on envi-
ronmental migration. Publications in the
Middle East 2 database are categorized by area, type
Asia-Pacific
of environmental hazard, methodology
2 31
and thematic focus, thereby providing
Europe detailed information about the scope of
existing research on this topic.
Source: Piguet et al. (2015) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),
Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015

Quantifying and forecasting
In the debate on environmental population movements. And when people, notably in the context of disas-
migration, one of the most they do exist, these statistics are rarely ters, but not stocks. Aside from evolving
natural questions is also one of compatible: environmental and climatic censuses of displaced people carried out
the most contentious: how many phenomena are generally evaluated per on the ground for operational purposes, it
people are today displaced square kilometre, whereas demographic is currently not known how many people
because of environmental data are generally measured on the scale remain displaced a year after their initial
degradation? And how many will of administrative units. movement.
be displaced tomorrow? Knowing how to quantify and predict
New research methods environmental migration is an issue that
From reports to declarations, the most Yet, great progress has recently been greatly goes beyond the research sphere;
unreasonable estimations circulate as made in terms of data collection without precise estimates, it would be
to the number of people displaced due methods. While the majority of current difficult to make appropriate political
to environmental degradation. The first studies devoted to the subject are of decisions to protect those displaced both
estimate dates from 1988, when Jodi a qualitative nature, a whole host of today and in the future.
Jacobson, from the World Watch Insti- empirical methods exist, which, with
tute, put the figure at 10 million. In 1993, specific cases, can be used to establish Complicated forecasting
Norman Myers, Professor of Ecology at quantitative data, such as historical Predicting the future is even more deli-
Oxford University, put forward a figure of research, comparisons between regions cate. Estimates on future migrations
25 million. or countries, analyses cross-examining linked to environmental change are still
regional and individual data, field studies, extremely fragile. They are often trapped
A key factor of migration etc. Although they generally deal with in a determinist perspective, as if the
The truth is that even if it can be supposed limited geographical areas, longitudinal number of future environmental migrants
that the environment is one of the prin- studies have helped to identify long-term exclusively depended on future envi-
cipal factors of migration throughout trends. ronmental degradation, independent of
the world, a precise figure is impossible In most cases, however, current esti- the political, economic or demographic
to establish. That would, first, suppose mates only measure flows of displaced context. Many fanciful predictions have
that a strict definition for these migrants
exists; and, second, that the environ- Number of empirical case studies by type of methodology used
ment could be isolated as a distinc- (1980–2013)
tive factor for migration – something
that is not always the case. The average The CliMig database of the University of qualitative field studies – the latter, using
number of people displaced every year Neuchâtel is the most comprehensive ethnographic methods, being the most
repository of case studies on environ- common form of empirical research. The
due to natural disasters is 25.4 million,
mental migration. A case study as defined depth of the analysis can vary significantly
or one every second. In addition to this by CliMig is a study of an area or a country between a case study entirely dedicated
figure, the figure relating to the number based on empirical research. Case studies to one country and a case study providing
of people displaced by more insidious use different methodologies, ranging from an overall picture of global or regional
spatial analysis and sample surveys, to trends.
environmental degradation would also
be needed, degradation that includes Comparisons between
sea-level rise or deforestation, but this Qualitative different regions or countries
figure is not known. Finally, the number case studies Analysis
of environmental migrants is all the more 50 crossing
difficult to estimate as it combines both regional and
21
136 individual data
voluntary and forced migrants, and both
short and long-term displacement.
79 Analysis
based
Insufficient data on individual
The basic lack of data constitutes an surveys
essential difficulty. Migration related to 81 51
the environment is often short distance, Hotspots
identification Historical research
within the borders of one single country,
and regional case studies
and many countries do not possess the
Source: Piguet (2010) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015
requisite statistical tools to track internal

thus caused confusion and hindered the

establishment of appropriate political
IOM displacement tracking activities following natural disasters,
responses. In some cases, the figures
2005–2014
have even been blithely magnified and
manipulated to draw attention to the
subject, to justify certain measures of
Nepal
increased border controls, or to help Afghanistan
to finance adaptation. The majority of Philippines
Haiti Pakistan Myanmar
predictions have two things in common: Bangladesh
a weak or inexistent methodology, and a Colombia Nigeria Ethiopia
tendency to inflate the figures. Vanuatu
Malawi
The totemic number of 200 million
migrants Mozambique
The United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP) was the first to Countries where the IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix has been deployed
following natural disasters, implemented as year-round monitoring of
venture to undertake the delicate exer- displacement country-wide, or integrated into the preparedness plans
cise of prediction. In 1989, on the basis Source: IOM (2015) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015
of a report commissioned to the Egyptian

When natural disasters strike, govern- Displacement data are collected through
university researcher Hassam El-Hin- ments and humanitarian actors require field observations and assessments, inter-
nawi, Mostafa K. Tolba, then executive precise and up-to-date information about views, physical counting, sampling and
director of UNEP, quoted an estimate affected populations and their needs, so as other statistical methods. The informa-
of 50 million displaced people by 2010. to provide assistance efficiently. tion is then processed and shared with key
To respond to such operational needs, IOM actors providing emergency assistance to
His successor from 1998 to 2006, Klaus
has developed the Displacement Tracking affected populations. The DTM has been
Töpfer, cited this estimate in numerous Matrix (DTM), a mechanism used to track deployed in many countries, both in situ-
speeches and interviews. But it is above population displacement during crises and ations of natural disaster and conflict, and
all the prediction of 150 million displaced to monitor sites and camps hosting inter- constitutes a rich source of quantitative and
nally displaced populations. The DTM helps qualitative information on displacement;
people by 2050, made by Norman Myers
to collect information on population demo- the data have been used in research, and to
on the basis of El-Hinnawi’s initial esti- graphics, spatial data on displacement develop global estimates of displacement
mate, which has caught the attention of patterns and trajectories, and information following natural disasters.
the public and the media. According to about specific needs and vulnerabilities.
Myers, this future displacement will be
due to three principal causes: environ-
mental decline, growing poverty and
demographic expansion, these three The impact of rainfall on mobility: the case of Burkina Faso
factors being intrinsically linked. It was this
National or community-level surveys are Faso). The survey, which gathered indi-
figure that was employed by the British
among the most common methods of vidual life history data from 8,644 men and
economist Nicholas Stern in his famous obtaining data on individual and household women aged 15–64, included questions
2007 report on the economy of climate migration, and on potential links to envi- helping to identify individual and commu-
change. In parallel, Myers adjusted his ronmental factors. The data can then be nity level, as well as environmental, factors
used to develop statistical risk models to affecting migration (education, employ-
prediction, increasing the figure to 200
better understand the relationship between ment, land and water availability, rainfall vari-
million. Widely quoted since by a vast different factors and migration outcomes. ability). The second survey was conducted
number of media outlets, official reports, In their research on the impacts of rain- by the research team in 600 settlements in
NGO advocacy groups, etc., it has estab- fall on mobility in Burkina Faso, a group of 2002 to ascertain additional village charac-
lished itself as a totemic figure in public researchers from the Universities of Namur, teristics such as land availability, transporta-
Louvain and Montréal used data from two tion, agriculture and perceptions of environ-
debates, to the extent that it is sometimes surveys. The first survey was a nation- mental challenges. The data from the two
portrayed as a prediction made by the ally representative retrospective survey on surveys, combined with monthly precipita-
United Nations. Only the NGO Christian migration conducted in Burkina Faso by the tion records, were used by the researchers
Aid has since proposed another figure, ISSP at the University of Ouagadougou, the to develop a model to test the effects of rain-
Demography Department of the University fall conditions on migration, and to demon-
announcing that 300 million people will
of Montreal and the CERPOD in Bamako strate that drought does have an impact on
be displaced in the future by environ- in 2000 (Migration Dynamics, Urban Inte- certain migration patterns.
mental disturbances. This figure comes gration and Environment Survey of Burkina Source: Henry et al. (2004)
from an interview with … Norman Myers.
Methodological problems methodology have had a lasting impact predictions concern the number of
All of these predictions taken at face on public debates on environmental people displaced over a particular year
value in spite of the fact that they are not migration, while many questions further- (2050 as it happens) or the number of
based on any kind of robust scientific more remain unanswered. First, do people displaced between the moment

Previous estimates of the numbers of ‘environmental migrants/refugees’
Early publication Estimates based on previous figures
02
20
d
07
an
20
88
93
97
09
19
19
19
20
Global
Friends of
Publication Jacobson Myers Myers Christian Aid Stern Humanitarian
the Earth
Forum
First attempt to Original Based on Not a new Not a new Not a new Draws on previous
Basis of operationalize a methodology Myers 1993 methodology. methodology. methodology. estimates to
estimate definition of presenting those at Direct Based on Direct present a number
‘environmental risk of becoming reference to interview with reference to which is ‘of the
refugees’ ‘environmental Myers (2002) Professor Myers Myers (2002) same order of
refugees’ by 2050 magnitude’ as
these
150-200
Estimation 212 million 200 million 200 million 300 million
million
by 2050 by 2050 by 2050 by 2050
by 2050
10 million
78 million
displaced by 2030
Source: Foresight (2011), based on Gemenne (2011) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015 Foresight
that the prediction is made and the of demographic growth and green- models that attempt to measure the
given year? As fundamental as it is, house gas emissions, according to the relative influence of different migra-
this question remains shrouded in policies that will be implemented. tory factors in order to discern several
uncertainty. Second, which definition possible trends as a result of the evolu-
of displaced people should be used, Innovative methods tion of these factors. IDMC has thereby
and what displacement timeframe and New experimental methodologies developed a ‘Disaster Displacement
distance should be taken into account? provide a glimpse of the possibility of Risk Index’, which enables the predic-
Predictions generally ignore the more accurately predicting the future tion of an average number of people
multi-causality of migration, and, much number of displaced people. One of the displaced per year by country and by
like estimates regarding the popula- most innovative and promising is based type of disaster. It is based on histor-
tion of current migrants, are based on on the analysis of multi-agent simulation ical and current trends in demographic
the number of people living in at-risk models. These models provide computer growth and natural hazards. Finally,
regions. Therein lies their profound simulations of human behaviour in reac- multilevel longitudinal analyses are
determinism, whereas in reality human tion to various stimuli, calculated from without a doubt the best way of estab-
migration between now and 2050 will pre-encoded parameters. Even though lishing long-term trends. Yet, given that
be influenced by a multitude of other the idea of computer modelling human they rely on a comparison of large data-
factors such as the evolution of the behaviour may seem unconvincing, this bases, both demographic and environ-
global population and climate change method has already been successfully mental, over the course of several years,
adaptation policies. Moreover, trends in employed for various types of migra- these methods are sadly extremely
environmental or demographic change tion. Other methods are based on the costly and the databases required are
are themselves uncertain; there are elaboration of different scenarios, often inexistent, incomplete or difficult
huge discrepancies between scenarios for instance from large gravitational to compare with one another.

Disaster displacement risk in four regions China

22 708 910
IDMC has tested its Disaster Displacement Risk Index in 50 countries in four focus Nepal
regions : South Asia, South-East Asia, South Pacific and Latin America and Caribbean. Bhutan
Bangladesh
Myanmar
Thailand
Belize Afghanistan Laos
Pakistan Viet Nam
Honduras
Haiti
Mexico
Dominican Republic India Philippines
Guam Marshall
Guatemala Islands
El Salvador Panama Maldives
Kiribati Nicaragua Costa Rica Sri Lanka Micronesia
Samoa Indonesia Solomon
Papua Islands
American Samoa New
Average annual 7.7 million Expected change in Cambodia Fiji
Cook Islands Malaysia Guinea
displacement displacement risk in the
Tonga Vanuatu
risk next 10 years
(number (in %)
of people) 2 million 10 and more
1 million 3–10
1–10
200 000 0–1
20 000
Source: Ginnetti (2015) 5 000
© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015 100 to 5 000
Scenarios for GHG emissions from 2000

to 2100 in the absence of additional
climate policies
B1 B2 A2
A1T A1B A1FI
200 Global GHG emissions
(Gt CO2-eq/yr) Post-SRES
180 (max)
160
140
120
100
Post-SRES
80 range (80 %)
60
40
20 Post-SRES
(min)
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Source: IPCC (2007) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),
Population of the world, 1950–2100,

according to different projections
and variants
Medium Low
High Constant-fertility
30 Population (billions)
25
20
15
10
0
1950 2000 2050 2100
Source: UNDESA (2013) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),
Household survey conducted in Mali to assess the impacts of climate change on livelihoods.
Bamako, Mali, 2015. © IOM 2015

Global aggregated figures
across several years are not
Disasters and displacement

cumulative numbers of
displaced people: they represent
new incidences of displacement,
which may affect people displaced
previously in the same or previous years.
Source: Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre

(IDMC), Global Estimates 2014: People displaced by
disasters, www.internal-displacement.org
Every year, disasters displace Global disaster-induced displacement, 2008–2014

millions of people from their Number of individuals newly displaced by disasters,
rounded to the nearest 100,000 (millions)
homes. Reliable statistics are IDMC estimates as of 2015 Average
essential for governments and 26.4 m
0 10 20 30 40
other actors for evidence-based
2008 36.5
policy and operational decision- 2009 16.7
making, made more urgent by a 2010 42.4
rising global trend in the risk of 2011 15.0
disaster-induced displacement. 2012 32.4
2013 22.3
2014 19.3
Natural hazards are just part of the cause
of disasters and displacement. Research Source: IDMC (2015) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015
conducted by IDMC points to popula-
tion growth, exposure, and vulnerability
as the main drivers of displacement risk, Countries with highest levels of displacement
particularly in densely populated, hazard- over 6 years, 2008–2013
prone urban areas. In future decades, the Total number
of people displaced Relative number of people displaced
impact of global warming on weather-re- (millions) (per million inhabitants)
lated hazards is likely to further exacer-
bate this risk. The need for better data to 19.41 Philippines 203,712
inform plans to prevent, prepare for and 1.81 Haiti 177,836
mitigate displacement will only increase. 1.37 Cuba 121,139
In response, considerable efforts have 2.06 Chile 120,418
been made over the past few years to 2.17 Sri Lanka 105,859
address this knowledge gap. 13.78 Pakistan 74,982
3.31 Colombia 71,340
Global estimates 0.06 Fiji 66,625
0.01 Samoa 65,065 Source: IDMC (n.d.)
Since 2008, IDMC has been developing © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne,
methodologies and datasets that aggre- 0.14 Namibia 63,373 Sciences Po, 2015
gate reported incidences of disaster-

related displacement and enable their triggered by the threat or sudden impact (25 per cent of the 2012 global total,
global scale, location and patterns to be of weather and geophysical hazards. compared to 8 to 9 per cent from 2008 to
understood. Information comes from 2011 and in 2013, or 4 per cent in 2014).
a wide range of sources: mostly from Uneven regional patterns of These data do not show where people
national governments or local authori- displacement take refuge or where they eventually
ties, as well as the IFRC and national Red IDMC’s data also reveal patterns in the settle – back in their original homes, or
Cross and Red Crescent societies, UN regional distribution of displacement elsewhere. It is widely agreed, however,
agencies, IOM, NGOs, public media and worldwide, with most displacement that most displaced people remain within
the private sector. occurring in Asia (82 per cent of total the same countries. In many situations
For the period from 2008 to 2014, displacement from 2008 to 2014): 11 people stay close to their original homes;
IDMC’s data show that some 185 million of the 20 countries with most displace- and though some may cross interna-
people were displaced in 173 countries, ment over 2008 to 2014 are located in tional borders, global data on such situ-
or an average of 26.4 million people Asia, with the highest numbers in China, ations are also lacking.
were displaced each year. At the same India, the Philippines, Pakistan and
time, global estimates vary greatly in Bangladesh. The Americas account for Hazards associated with the most
relation to the frequency and magnitude 10 per cent of global displacement, while displacement
of the largest scale events, producing displacement in Europe and Oceania It is also evident that disasters trig-
annual displacement totals that range together represents only 0.5 per cent of gered by weather-related hazards cause
from 15 million to 42 million. Overall, the the total. The proportion of displacement most displacement (86 per cent of total
risk of disaster-induced displacement in Africa was similar each year, except displacement), including in particular
has doubled since the 1970s. These for a peak in 2012 due to rainy season floods (55 per cent of total displace-
findings include displacement directly flood disasters in West and Central Africa ment from 2008 to 2014), and storms

Disaster-induced displacement worldwide, 2008–2013
Japan
United States
China
Mexico
Cuba
Pakistan
Phillippines
Haiti India
Thailand Viet Nam

Colombia
Sri Lanka
Indonesia
Nigeria
Brazil
55,000
Global aggregated figures
across several years are not
cumulative numbers of 25,000
displaced people: they represent
new incidences of displacement, 13,500
Chile which may affect people displaced 7,000
previously in the same or previous years. Number of people
1,350 displaced
Source: IDMC (2014) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, (thousands)
Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015 150
10 No data available
People displaced by type of hazard, 2008–2013

(thousands)
Extreme heat /
Note on IDMC’s data
Heatwave 1.7
Landslide (dry) 25.6
IDMC publishes annual global estimates
Wildfire 228
of the scale and location of displace-
Volcano 567.4 ment in the context of disasters asso-
Landslide (wet) 587.2 ciated with geophysical, climatic and
Extreme winter
conditions / Cold wave
956.7 weather hazards. Displacement related
Earthquake (seismic activity) 24,317.7 to drought and slow-onset processes
Storm 44,982.1 of environmental degradation is not
Flood 93,717.5 recorded as measuring it requires a
Source: IDMC (n.d.) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015
different approach.
The estimates are based on reported
displacement, including data on people
evacuated and people whose homes
(around 29 per cent). Earthquakes and still require assistance or remain at risk have been rendered uninhabitable:
they do not capture the destination and
other geophysical hazards, though less from being displaced again. Nor do
trajectories of the displaced people, or
frequent than weather-related hazards, the global figures provide insights into the duration of displacement.
also result in massive displacement: from the different needs and experiences of IDMC figures capture new incidences of
2008 to 2014, earthquakes accounted displaced people related to their age, displacement with each new disaster: as
for 14 per cent of the global total. gender, ethnicity or background. They such, they may include people already
living in displacement (for instance,
do show, however, that the most vulner- IDPs living in temporary camps in disas-
Beyond the figures able countries and people are being ter-prone areas), or people displaced
The estimates provide a broad overview disproportionately affected by both repeatedly as they continue living in
but monitoring and deeper knowledge frequent, small-scale events as well as highly exposed areas. Frequent small-
er-scale disasters and their impacts are
is needed to understand what happens by large disasters that make the head-
often under-reported, and the number of
to people once they are displaced: how lines. Improving the data on disaster-re- people thus affected is likely to be highly
long they remain displaced; whether lated displacement would help ensure underestimated in the global figures.
they move to cities, decide to return, that all are recognized and none are left Source: IDMC (2015)
or resettle elsewhere; whether they behind.

Forced or voluntary?
In practice it is difficult to clearly Mobility and immobility factors and outcomes

distinguish between forced and Environmental
voluntary migration, which Stressor
Slow-onset
complicates the implementation or sudden
of appropriate political
responses.
Certain forms of mobility are chosen, Need to Migrate No Yes

whereas others comprise an element of
coercion when disasters, violence, inse-
curity or the privation of means of subsist- Desire to Migrate No Yes No Yes
ence occur, threatening survival and
forcing departure. Environmental migra-
Capacity to Migrate No Yes No Yes
tion can comprise elements of both.
A continuum: from voluntary

Immobility/
migration to forced migration OUTCOMES Immobility
trapped
Mobility Immobility Trapped Mobility
It is, however, difficult to establish a clear
distinction between forced and volun- Source: Conceived by C. Zickgraf and N. Perrin © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015
tary migration. In the majority of cases,

migrants have an element of choice. The
multiplicity of factors involved should be between the notions of voluntary and an internationally recognized legal term
taken into account in order to determine forced migration. The relocation of popu- to designate environmental migrants.
the more or less forced nature of mobility lations living in areas that have been As these migrants do not correspond
– whether it is the presence of social rendered inhospitable by climate change, to any of the categories defined by the
capital, access to information and the by infrastructure projects, or by recur- international legal framework in force,
appreciation of risks, etc. – and to better rent disasters can only be accomplished no specific mechanism exists to provide
understand certain people’s inability via a non-forcible approach vis-à-vis the for their needs in terms of protection or
to resort to migration as a response to communities concerned. However, is it to offer them support when migrating.
natural hazards – for indeed, this solu- possible to talk about voluntary migra- As such, the forms of circular migration
tion is not available to everyone. Often the tion when populations want to stay linked to land degradation are consid-
most vulnerable, either because they are on their land but are obliged to leave ered as ‘voluntary’, which is why almost
the most exposed or because they are the because it has become inhabitable? And no legal or political tool provides for
most destitute, do not have the means to what about those who migrate to avoid assistance to the most vulnerable people
migrate despite wanting to do so. Immo- being forced to do so at the last minute? with their decision to migrate.
bility is thus also more or less voluntary or What element of choice remains when Displacement, by definition involuntary,
forced. And for those who have the ability an evacuation is ordered as a precaution is better catered for in international and
to resettle elsewhere and who choose to against a natural disaster? Can evacua- national law. The term ‘people displaced
do so, departure is no less distressing. tion be forced? This question was posed within their own country due to natural
The project Where the Rain Falls, which during Hurricane Katrina in the United disasters’ designates the forced move-
compares the migratory strategies of States in 2005, which ended up costing ments of populations covered by
families in eight countries faced with the lives of hundreds of people. specific provisions: the Guiding Princi-
rainfall variations, accurately highlights ples on Internal Displacement. These
the range of possible strategies: when Terminological nuances reflected in Principles are not, however, a legally
migration is a choice destined to diversify political responses binding instrument. Those people
means of subsistence; when it constitutes This debate is not simply semantic; displaced by disasters outside their
a survival strategy, thus of last resort; terminology is at the heart of polit- countries are not currently protected by
and when it is not possible to undertake ical responses that can be employed a legally binding instrument. The term
or when the decision is forced and thus to manage migration while respecting ‘refugee’ corresponds to an interna-
perceived as a failure. human rights. The ambiguity that persists tional legal status and applies to those
The notion of ‘planned relocation’ also between the notions of forced and volun- who have obtained asylum in a foreign
underlines the grey area that exists tary migration prevents the creation of country, having fled their home country

Foresight’s framework for human mobility outcomes
Migration influenced by environmental change
Personal/household Choose to leave : Migration

characteristics Move
Forced to move : Displacement
Drivers
Environmental MIGRATION
Political
Decision
Demographic
Economic
NON-MIGRATION
Social
Unable to leave : Trapped

Intervening obstacles Stay
and facilitators Choose to stay : Immobile
Non-Migration influenced by environmental change
Source: Foresight (2011) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015
due to conflicts, threats, situations of migrants, even in flagrant cases of it is possible to demonstrate a form of
violence or human rights violations, and forced migration, who cross borders persecution; natural disasters, environ-
who fulfil the conditions of the 1951 following, for instance, a disaster, are mental degradation, and climate change
Refugee Convention. But this status is not recognized by the 1951 Conven- are not recognized as forms of persecu-
not open to everyone: environmental tion, which solely applies to cases where tion under international law.
Somali refugees in self-settled outskirts of Daagahaley camp prepare to be relocated to a new tented camp with improved facilities and services.
Kenya, 2011. © IOM/BRENDON BANNON 2011

Trajectories
Existing evidence shows that entirely and move to cities in search of another country; their absence and the
migration flows related to alternative jobs. Migration to cities can fear of the unknown may discourage
environmental factors primarily also be a first step towards international others from moving. Migration within
occur within the same country, or migration. the same geographic regions between
the same region – and while neighbouring countries with existing
some industrialized countries are Conditions and barriers cultural and linguistic ties can thus be
concerned about the potential Whether people migrate near or far, more attractive than migration to distant
future mass influx of or whether they move at all, is strongly continents.
environmental migrants, conditioned by surrounding circum- Freedom of movement, the existence of
international migration is seldom stances, including the type and scope labour migration or temporary protection
a first response, or even an of environmental issues, and other push schemes, and other arrangements facili-
option. and pull factors at play, such as house- tating migration within and outside of the
hold characteristics, the attractiveness of country, and conversely, restrictions on
Disasters usually result in proximity conditions at places of origin and desti- migration in the countries of origin and
displacement: as a first response, people nation, alternative options available to destination, also influence patterns of
evacuate temporarily with the aim of households, distance and connectivity, migration.
returning, and rarely travel far. The and policy frameworks.
distance of displacement can vary from Migration is a costly enterprise, particu-
a few metres, as houses are destroyed larly when it comes to migration abroad.
and people construct makeshift shel- As such, this option is not available to
ters next to their original houses, to a all, and often requires a considerable
few kilometres, to temporary evacua- amount of economic, social and polit-
tion camps, or to neighbouring villages ical capital to make travel arrangements,
where help can be provided. Those with and to cover the costs of transport and
farther-reaching social networks may other expenses associated with moving
move further away to seek support from to a new place. The existence of estab-
relatives or friends living in other cities, lished migration channels and networks,
regions, or abroad. Migration to cities or as well as the presence of members of
abroad can also be a strategy to reduce the community and diaspora abroad
risk, or to diversify incomes to help may encourage people to move to Migrant workers in Brazil in the 1950s. © IOM 1952
recover from a disaster more quickly.
In most cases, however, communities
are reluctant to leave their houses, land, Haitian migration to Brazil, 2010–2013
community and the lifestyle to which
they are accustomed, and prefer to stay Following the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, new opportunities in Brazil: the majority of
displacement and migration followed migrants from Haiti had applied for work
regardless of environmental risks.
very complex patterns and trajectories, visas, mostly in the construction (men) or
depending on the needs and available service sectors (women). Others came to
Slow-onset degradation and means, routes, information and migration join their families already residing in the
migration channels by road, sea and air. country. Access to education, health facili-
When slow-onset environmental Initially, families moved out from Port-au- ties and social protection were also among
Prince to other cities in Haiti; some house- the factors attracting Haitians to Brazil.
changes affect livelihoods, particu- hold members came back to help with Some migrants indicated that they moved
larly where communities depend on reconstruction and to find work. Many because they were aware of support
local natural resources and ecosys- moved abroad to countries with a strong programmes offered by Brazil following the
tems, migration to other regions within diaspora presence and employment oppor- earthquake; others had simply heard that
tunities, such as the United States of migration to Brazil was easy, and decided to
the same country, or from rural areas to
America, which offered temporary protec- go. Yet, the accounts of migrants revealed
urban centres, is a common response. tion to Haitians affected by the disaster, or the numerous difficulties they had to face
As soils become unsuitable for farming, France. More than 10,000 Haitians moved on their way to Brazil: high travel costs
or fish stocks dwindle, farming or fishing to Brazil between 2010 and 2013, passing (including fees paid to smugglers), crime,
through the Dominican Republic, Panama, human trafficking, discrimination and inte-
communities may decide to move to
Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, which gration challenges in a new country and
other rural areas with more favourable allowed visa-free entry for Haitians. new culture.
environmental conditions and richer Most of them were looking for jobs and Source: IOM and PUC Minas (2014)
resources; or to change their lifestyle

Cap Haïtien DOMINICAN

Havana REPUBLIC
Gonaïves
Santiago Punta Cana
CUBA PUERTO RICO

HAITI
Santo (USA)
Port-au-Prince Domingo
Kingston
C aCr ar ir bi beba ena S
n eSae a
JAMAICA
Caracas
Valencia
Maracay Ciudad
Barranquilla Guayana
Maracaibo
Braquisimeto
N ICARAGUA
Cartagena
VENEZUELA
Managua Cúcuta
cuta
Panama
Panam a City Bucaramanga
C O S TA Medellín
Medell n
RICA
PA N A M A
Bogotá
Bogot á
C O LO M B I A
Cali
P a c i fi c O c e a n
Quito
ECUADOR
Guayaquil
BRAZIL
Huaquillas
Tumbes
Máncora Macará
Puira
Rio Branco
PERU
Migration trajectories
from Haiti to South America Chiclayo Assis
Brasil
following the 2010 earthquake Iñapari Brasiléia
Iberia
By air Puerto Maldonado
By road
Mazuco
City of destination or transit
Lima Cuzco
Other cities
(with more than Puno
500,000 inhabitants) La Paz
Quito Capital
Cochabamba
Arequipa
Map and data provided by D. Fernandes 1 000 km
and A. M. A. Diniz (PPGG PUC Minas)

Time frames
Environmental migration takes

many forms, from shorter daily
moves, to longer or permanent
migration, and from temporary
evacuations to protracted
displacement.
People engage in different types

of migration, for different periods,
depending on their needs and means.
Some people commute on a daily basis:
this can be the case for farmers living
close to urban centres, going to work in
the city during the non-farming period.
Others may engage in seasonal migra-
tion, moving to another region or urban
centre at a specific period every year –
usually for fewer than six months – to
find seasonal work. Temporary migra-
tion, defined as moves for at least six
months per year, and often over longer Temporary evacuation ahead of tropical storm Isaac. Haiti, 2012. © IOM 2012
distances, is usually resorted to when
more stable economic opportunities are further and for longer periods, and some- City in August 2011 when Hurricane
available, or for the purpose of studying, times leads to permanent migration to Irene was announced. As the impact of
or to temporarily join family members. A places where water and grazing land is Irene turned out to be much milder than
temporary migrant is usually expected available. predicted, people could go back to their
to go back to their point of origin. Yet, Temporary and seasonal migration is homes safely within hours. Displacement
economic or personal circumstances can now also becoming an essential strategy following disasters usually lasts until
turn temporary migration into a perma- to adapt to increasingly wet or dry safe return is made possible physically,
nent move. If the destination area offers seasons in parts of the world experi- and once populations and assets are no
better and more stable livelihoods, or, in encing changing precipitation patterns. longer considered at risk.
other cases, if return is not desirable or In Bangladesh, Thailand or Vietnam, for
not possible, people may decide to settle example, seasonal migration to cities or Protracted displacement
in a different location permanently – this to other rural areas for work is a common Yet, there are many cases worldwide of
can be the case for those living in areas strategy to diversify incomes during protracted displacement, when popu-
exposed to irreversible environmental the monsoon season. In other parts of lations have been unable to go back
degradation or to major hazards. the world, people with greater means home and have remained in what was
migrate seasonally in search of sunshine, meant to be temporary shelters for
Moving with the climate or milder climates. months, or even years. IDMC has iden-
Temporary and circular mobility has been tified more than 715,000 people living
a traditional way to adapt to seasons in Disasters and displacement in protracted displacement worldwide,
many communities worldwide: herders In the context of disasters, people are some of whom have been displaced
in the Arctic, Central Asia, Europe, Africa usually displaced temporarily to evacua- since the 1980s, and others for the last
and South America have traditionally tion centres or other types of temporary two to five years. There are possibly
engaged in seasonal transhumance, shelter where they can find assistance, many more people stuck in situations
moving their livestock between summer until they are able to go home or find that have not been recorded; protracted
and winter pastures. These patterns have an alternative long-term solution. The displacement remains a blind spot in
been increasingly modified by climate patterns and duration of displacement terms of data and research. People in
change through its impacts on rainfall, vary hugely depending on the nature such situations become increasingly
directly affecting transhumance cycles. of the event that triggers them, and the vulnerable with time, as assistance and
Drought, for example, increasingly forces damage it causes. Hundreds of people resources deplete after the completion
pastoralists to find new routes, and travel evacuated low-lying areas of New York of the emergency phase of the disaster

Migration in the context of rainfall vulnerability in Peru
To the USA
PERU To Argentina
La Merced
Satipo
San Martin
de Pangoa
Acopalca
Lima Chamiseria
Huancayo Paccha
0 25 50 km
Poverty Major roads Migration paths (generalized) Study sites

Low Secondary Migration period
Medium roads Daily commuting Seasonal Activity
High Urban areas Mixed Permanent Coffee harvest Commercial activities
Warner et al. (2012). Adapted from map produced under the Where the Rain Falls project by the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University.
© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Stienne, 2015
response. Governments are not always Temporary and seasonal migration in the context of rainfall vulnerability in Peru
able to design durable solutions for
return or resettlement, and to overcome Increasingly unpredictable rainfall patterns, in the highlands to look after cattle, while
obstacles including unclear land rights, frost and heatwaves undermine agricul- other members of the household migrate
unsafe environmental conditions at the tural production in the mountain areas in to the closest city, Huancayo, for seasonal
Peru and affect the food security of local or longer-term employment or education
places of origin, special vulnerabilities
households, many of which are affected opportunities. Many young people from
and needs, or limited funding capacity. by poverty and chronic malnutrition. In the highlands hope to settle in a big city in
As a result, thousands of people remain these regions, migration is used as a risk the future. At lower altitudes, for example
stuck in precarious conditions in ageing management strategy that helps diver- in Paccha or Chamiseria, closer to Huan-
sify incomes, which are largely dependent cayo, people commute daily to the city to
temporary shelters or in unsafe houses
on agriculture and cattle herding. Mobility work in construction or commerce, while
back home, in rural areas and city slums. patterns and duration vary by elevation their family looks after the farm. Seasonal
Such cases of protracted displace- and by proximity to the city: households at migration is also common among these
ment not only constitute a humani- higher altitudes, for example in Acopalca, households, many of which seek alterna-
tarian and development concern in where few local livelihood diversification tive incomes through coffee harvesting in
options exist apart from herding, engage in the Peruvian jungle several months a year.
low and middle-income countries (for longer-term migration. Some men engage Some young people from the lowlands
example Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, in temporary migration to the United States migrate temporarily to Lima or abroad
Bangladesh, Nigeria, Colombia, Haiti or to work on three-year contracts as shep- (USA, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay and Italy),
Armenia), they also affect marginalized herds; other migrants move to Lima or but most of them plan to return to their
to Argentina (mostly women). In some places of origin in the long run.
communities in high-income countries
cases the head of the household stays Source: Warner et al. (2012)
such as the United States, Japan or Italy.

Return migration
Following a disaster, a crisis, or right according to the Guiding Principles if the risk of further catastrophes is too
an uprooting, return often on Internal Displacement – or to facili- high or unmanageable.
appears to be the most desirable tate their integration into host commu-
option for both those displaced nities out of harm’s way. Because, in A question of choice or of means
and for decision makers and reality, return is far from being an auto- Moreover, all evacuees are not neces-
development actors. But the matic process; it can be delayed, or sarily candidates for return; the fear of
process is often long and even prove impossible due to a lack of further disasters or the appearance of
complicated, and sometimes means in the victims’ favour or because better prospects can encourage them
even impossible. property rights are poorly defined or to settle elsewhere. But for those who
barely regulated. The return can be want to return to their land, their home,
Temporary evacuations in the wake of a compromised in the medium term by and their surroundings, numerous
sudden disaster are always followed by actors’ inability to re-establish infra- obstacles can emerge. These obsta-
a reconstruction phase. The priority for structure and in the long term by the cles do not only concern the victims
the authorities and humanitarian organ- lack of economic opportunities to rein- of disasters, but also those people
izations is thus to ensure that popula- tegrate those displaced. Finally, very who left their communities of origin
tions can return to a normal life – this simply, return can be unfeasible if envi- as a result of the deterioration of
pursuit of durable solutions constitutes a ronmental degradation is irreversible or natural resources. For these people, it
Reorganization of the evacuation zone after the Fukushima nuclear accident, 2011–2014
2011 2011 2014

Restricted area
Deliberate evacuation area
Specific spots recommended MINAMISOMA
IITATE MINAMISOMA
for evacuation IITATE
Evacuation prepared area
2014
NAMIE NAMIE
Area 1: Areas to which evacuation Fukushima Fukushima
orders are ready to be lifted FUTABA Nuclear Power FUTABA Nuclear Power
TAMURA Plant (No.1) TAMURA Plant (No.1)
OKUMA OKUMA
Area 2: Areas in which the residents
are not permitted to live TOMIOKA Fukushima TOMIOKA Fukushima
KAWAUCHI Nuclear Power KAWAUCHI Nuclear Power
Area 3: Areas where it is expected Plant (No.2) Plant (No.2)
NARAHA NARAHA
that the residents will face difficulties
25 km 25 km
in returning for a long time
Source: METI (n.d.) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015
Opinion Survey among Naraha evacuees, January 2014

% of answers Among those who chose the answer...
around the question of return ...decisive elements are:
A B C (multiple options)
Answer
I wish to return 57.7 56.6 70.2 Safety of the damaged nuclear station
as soon as possible 8.0
I wish to return if 65.8 ...medical and health infrastructure
Not
certain conditions are met 32.2 A 54.5 ...the return of commercial infrastructure confident
about
I cannot decide 54.3 ...the safety of running water
at the moment 34.7 B
50.9 Worry about ambient radiation dose
which did not decrease despite decontamination
I do not wish to return 24.2 C
48.3 Radiation effect on health
81.7 58.4 Rehabilitation of social infrastructure
60.4 51.2 Decrease of ambient radiation dose
Source: Hasegawa (2015), based on data from Naraha Town, 54.0 58.0 Safety of the Interim Storage Facility
Fukushima Prefecture and Reconstruction Agency (2014)
© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015 45.5 Confirmation of the amount of compensation

of the evacuees have not returned. The

Forced return after Fukushima demographic decline was the most
pronounced among the black population
The Fukushima disaster, in March 2011, led adapted and manipulated. The inhabitants (−30.5 per cent from 2005 to 2014) and
to the irradiation of a sizeable area around have been urged to return despite the reti- the poorest neighbourhoods (in 2010,
the nuclear power station. A section of this cence of a number of them due to concerns the population was only 66 per cent of
area will remain uninhabitable for decades, about the level of radiation, the insecurity of
and there is no question of the popula- nuclear facilities, and the state of dysfunc- the figure before the hurricane). Despite
tion returning. But the Japanese govern- tion of the social and sanitary services. In appeals from the city’s mayor, it is likely
ment has decided that other areas that the town of Nahara, for instance, only 8 per that these former inhabitants will never
were also contaminated constitute land cent of inhabitants questioned in February return. The most reluctant are parents
that should be recovered. Decontamination 2014 wish to return as soon as possible.
operations, some of which are rudimentary, Source: Hasegawa (2015)
with young children and the elderly, who
have begun and security norms have been are conscious of the lack of economic
opportunities and the dearth of public
services, or are simply worried about
is the availability of jobs and means of war, have made the return of those the possibility of another hurricane.
subsistence along with the living condi- populations displaced since the begin- Although the city is gradually recov-
tions in the return areas, be they of an ning of the war extremely difficult. ering from the devastation and regaining
environmental nature or not, that play a its former demographic growth rate, it
decisive role. As such, in Iraq, drought, The depopulation and repopulation is due to the arrival of an entirely new
the degradation of water resources, of New Orleans population, notably comprising immi-
and the inability to practise agricul- In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, in 2005, grants from Central America attracted by
ture, in addition to the destruction and New Orleans lost almost one-quarter of employment opportunities related to the
precariousness brought about by the its population, and a large proportion reconstruction efforts.
Repopulation of New Orleans 5 years after Hurricane Katrina
Areas with worst flooding Lake Pontchartrain

City of New Orleans
Districts
Neighbourhoods
New Orleans East
Gentilly
Lakeview
Lower
Ninth
French Ward
Quarter St Bernard
Parish
5 km
Audubon
Garden
District
Miss
i s s i p p i R i ver
Jefferson
Parish
Repopulation
(% of pre-Katrina population in 2010)
Lower Ninth Ward 34
Gentilly 74
Lakeview 78 Sources: Adapted from Park and Tse (2010), and from City of New Orleans
New Orleans East 79 (n.d.) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015

Relocation Mexico
Guerrero
(Started in 2013)
Following Hurricane Manuel
in 2013, the government Haiti
launched a resettlement Port-au-Prince
Should populations living in Viet Nam, for example, the public authori- plan "Plan Nuevo Guerrero": (Started in 2010)
to relocate people living in
vulnerable areas be displaced as ties launched an ambitious programme in high risk areas to new areas,
To prevent loss of
lives in the
a preventive measure against the 1996, called ‘Living With Floods’, which building new secure houses. post-earthquake
future impact of climate change? provides for the relocation of 200,000 Panama
storm seasons, IOM
has been relocating
Several governments have homes in the Mekong delta, one of the Gunayala, people displaced by
Gardi Sugdub island
already implemented processes most exposed regions in the world. Other (To come)
the Port-au-Prince
earthquake to areas
of planned relocation, with mixed similar initiatives are under way across Sea level rise and natural free from flooding
results and many unanswered the globe. On the banks of the Limpopo disasters led to the and landslides.
relocation of 40,000 people
questions. in Mozambique, the government is relo- from San Blas archipelago
cating populations subject to flooding, to mainland Gunayla.
Be they situated in deltas or on the caused by the river’s rising water level,
Peru
slopes of volcanoes, the areas sensi- to the hills. In Alaska, melting perma-
Loreto Region Montserrat
tive to environmental change generally frost has forced Inuit communities to (2012) Plymouth
provide favourable conditions for agri- organize a relocation plan themselves. In Following the Loreto (1995–1998)
floods, the Government
culture and transport, and are thus highly Benin, the government has ordered the and IOM relocated
About 7,000 people (two
thirds of the population)
economically attractive and are often destruction of certain neighbourhoods 1,100 families. fled the island after the
the subject of urban and housing devel- threatened by coastal erosion. eruption of the Soufrière
Hills. They were offered
opment projects. Sometimes, on the residency and financial
contrary, they are the last refuge of poor Mixed results compensation, and in
Argentina the long term citizenship,
and marginalized populations. In both The planned relocation of popula-
La Plata in the UK.
cases their population continues to grow. tions living in highly exposed zones (To come)
to safe areas may seem like common Following the April
Pre-emptive relocation sense. The Cancún Framework encour- 2013 floods in La Plata,
the Ministry of
But the expected impacts of climate ages precisely the funding of such Status of the
Infrastructure
relocation process
change are leading many governments programmes for adaptation. More than a elaborated a plan for
the relocation of Completed
to pre-emptively relocate entire popula- dozen countries have already submitted several hundred
tions, in order to avoid forced migration in adaptation plans that include planned families. Ongoing
the future, or even humanitarian crises. In relocation policies. Yet, numerous In the pipeline
Papua Carteret Takuu

New Guinea 1600 Islands Atoll
1997
1940 Pacific
Carteret Islands: migration and
Hanahan Ocean
relocation 1600–2009
Buka
Island 1960–
Ieta 1970s In Papua New Guinea, the planned relo-
2009 Causes of migration
cation of the population of the Carteret
Historical migration
Tinputs 1980s Islands provides an emblematic case in
Environmental disaster (king tides)
point. These Islands, situated at sea level,
War, violence
1989– are extremely vulnerable to sea-level rise
Employment opportunities
1990 Economic resettlement programme and associated flooding and soil salini-
Bougainville
Island Community-led relocation zation. From 2007, the Papuan govern-
in response to sea level rise ment made the decision to relocate
1984 6,000 inhabitants to the larger Bougain-
Kieta ville Island, administered by an auton-
Solomon Arawa
omous government. This process is
Sea Panguna
currently on hold, due to a lack of avail-
able suitable land, political will and moti-
vation on the part of inhabitants.
0 50 100 km
Source: IOM (2015) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Solomon

Gemenne, Stienne, 2015 Islands

United States
(Alaska)
Newtok, Kivalina, China China
and 10 other villages Inner Mongolia Xiaolangdi dam
(To come) (Started in 1998) (Henan province)
Between 1998 and 2010, (1994–2004)
12 villages in Alaska are
affected by erosion as a result 1.259 million people were Following the decision
of reduced sea-ice, thawing resettled from environmentally to build a dam in Henan
permafrost and sea-level rise, vulnerable areas in the Yin province, people were Papua New Guinea
and are exploring relocation Mountains under the ‘Grain for relocated with the North-eastern Bougainville low lying
options. These phenomena Green’ resettlement plan. The purpose of improving islands
are causing land erosion and programme was extended in their standard of living. (Started in 2005)
stronger storm surges, 2015 for another 5 years. This project had a cost 1,000 residents are to benefit from a
putting the villagers at risk. of US$840 million. relocation programme led by the
Government and IOM, targeting atoll
communities vulnerable to natural
Viet Nam Viet Nam disasters and affected by food insecurity
Coastal Regions and River Delta Mekong Delta due to slow-onset changes such as
(2007–2020) (Started in 1996) salinization, erosion, seawater intrusion,
and land loss.
Floods, flash floods, mud flows, The ‘Living with Floods’
landslides, river bank and coastal programme is aiming to
Netherlands erosion occur every year in the relocate about 1 million
Rhine and Maas region country, leading the government people affected by
(2007–2016) to aim to resettle 150,000 people seasonal flooding and
living in disaster prone areas. riverbank erosion in the
As extremely high river
Mekong Delta.
discharges will occur
more frequently in the Kenya
future, ‘Room for the (Started in 2012)
River’ is a governmental
30,000 Somali
decision to enlarge the
refugees affected by New Zealand
riverbed of several Rhine
drought and famine Sri Lanka Christchurch
branches, leading to the
were moved to Dadaab (2007–2008) (2011–2014)
demolition of 50 houses;
in northern Kenya.
owners were given Populations and assets in Maldives The 2011 earthquake that hit
compensation. areas exposed to Raa atoll Chistchurch led to a red-zone
Ethiopia mapping, and more than 8,000
landslides and floods were (2008)
Central and eastern people had to leave their
relocated by the The 2004 tsunami that hit Raa atoll
highland home. The authorities offered
Government and IOM to a led to 3 types of community
(Started in 2003) to buy their houses to enable
former tea plantation; 219 relocation. Houses on affected
The Government launched households benefited them to resettle.
islands were rebuilt in safer areas
the ‘Voluntary Relocation from the programme. (Vilufushi); the government built new
Program’ to resettle 2.2
houses on host islands for evacuees
million drought victims in
who could not return to their home
other rural areas.
island (Kudahuvadhoo); the
Mozambique Mozambique uninhabited island of Dhuvaafaru
Gaza Province Central region became the new home of relocated
(Started in 2013) Zambezi river people from Kandholhudhoo.
After heavy rainfall, the (2007–2010)
Government proposed a Recurring floods led the
relocation option to displaced Government to devise Examples of planned relocation
households, offering them new a resettlement
plots of land on which to settle. programme despite the related to environmental change
To date, 3,500 families have difficulty of securing Sources: Bronen and Chapin (2013), CERA (2014), Chun (2014), Displacement Solutions (2015),
accepted this programme meant livelihoods for the 59,000 Duvat and Magnan (2014), Ferris (2011), Foresight (2011), IOM (2013), Municipalidad de la Plata
to help 130,000 people. participating families. (2013), Room for the River Programme (n.d.), SEDATU (2014), Vietnam Central Committee for Flood
and Storm Control (2009). © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Stienne, 2015
practical and ethical questions remain: governments might be tempted to use to better define it in order to ensure the
should populations be displaced against the procedure to break up secessionist protection of populations and respect of
their wishes? What kind of compensa- groups or ethnic minorities under the human rights. In 2014, following a large
tion should be envisaged? What land can pretext of putting them out of harm’s way. consultation organized in San Remo,
be allocated to those relocated? How the Brookings Institution, UNHCR and
should the relocation site be chosen? Guidelines and divided research Georgetown University took the initiative
When should relocation take place? The opinion of developing draft guidance for States
answers vary from case to case and the Although planned relocation is unani- wishing to pursue a more regulated relo-
programmes carried out to date have mously considered as an option of last cation policy. A significant number of
provided mixed results: while they have resort, it continues to divide the research frames of reference already exist that
indeed helped to reduce the number of community and international organiza- could help to orientate them: human
people exposed to environmental risks, tions. Some are reticent due to fears that rights, guiding principles on internal and
other weaknesses have appeared, linked governments are using the policy in an international displacement, disaster risk
to the dislocation of social networks and abusive fashion. Others, in a more prag- reduction, evacuations, property and
to the loss of economic resources, quite matic vein, admit that the policy is already land rights, conflict resolution and the
apart from the possibility that certain a reality and are seeking, on the contrary, rights of indigenous populations.

Immobility
People displaced by so, they can become ‘trapped’. This is political, geographic or cultural factors,
environmental changes can be most often the case for individuals with then individuals may find themselves
very vulnerable; yet, perhaps of low socio-economic status, few mate- trapped in hazardous circumstances.
greater concern is the situation of rial and financial assets, or limited social Poor health, limited access to informa-
those who find themselves support networks, who are thus already tion, belonging to marginalized groups,
trapped in the face of very vulnerable. and isolation can all be factors under-
environmental disruptions. In such cases, environmental stress func- mining the ability to leave hazard-prone
tions as an aggravating factor which adds or gradually degrading environments. As
Whether people move or not depends to systemic economic, demographic and a result, individuals are deprived of one
on three main factors: the need, the political factors that shape individual of the most important income diversi-
desire and the ability to migrate. Immo- livelihoods, access to resources and fication and coping strategies, and are
bility does not necessarily result in nega- vulnerability, and influence the need (or likely to face increased vulnerability and
tive outcomes – for example if people do desire) to move. If existing vulnerability is poverty, greater exposure to hazards, and
not feel the need to leave their homes, further accentuated by economic, social, to find their lives at risk. When disasters
or if they have enough resources to
adapt in situ.
Drought, war and forced immobility in Machaze
Refusing to go
On the other hand, if there is a need to Since the turn of the twentieth century, Machaze district, as villages fell under the
migrate, but there is no desire to do so – migration has played a key role as a subsist- control of armed groups, who prohibited all
for cultural or social reasons, or because ence and drought coping strategy for movement from and within the district. As a
communities in the rural district of Machaze result, men were unable to leave, and those
people do not perceive the risks – then
in Mozambique. For decades, the popula- working abroad, to return to their villages;
immobility can aggravate vulnerability. tion relied on a clear social division between the Machazians remaining in villages,
Many small island communities, for female agricultural labour within the district mostly women, were unable to leave the
example the inhabitants of Kiribati, and male circular migration to South Africa villages to work the fields. As remittances
for cash-earning labour. Remittances stopped, households trapped in villages lost
are already experiencing the effects of
sent by male migrants were particularly their key source of subsistence. The disrup-
climate change, sea-level rise, soil degra- crucial in times of drought, constituting the tion of migration-based subsistence strate-
dation and their impact on food, water only source of income for rural families in gies and forced immobility seriously under-
and health security. These communities Machaze, allowing them to purchase food mined livelihoods in Machaze villages,
are aware that one day they may have no when crops failed. resulting in many deaths during the severe
The civil war that broke out in 1977 drought from 1981 to 1984.
choice but to relocate in the face of the and lasted 15 years deeply affected the Source: Lubkemann (2008)
potential submergence of their territory,
and the government is already taking
Before 1977 Civil War
measures to prepare for this challenge. B IQUE - B IQUE
AM
1977–1992
AM -
Yet, due to their strong attachment to the
Z
Z
M
MO
MO
AC
land inherited from their ancestors, which

AC
Female
HAZE
is often considered as an extension of

HAZE
agricultural
labour
the self and on which their identity, tradi-
es
es
nc
nc
tions, myths and knowledge are strongly

it t a
it t a
r a ti o n
dependent, many are unwilling to leave.

io n
Rem
Rem
They fear that their traditions will be lost,

ig ra t
M ig
and apprehend the challenges and the

rM
changes in lifestyle that lie ahead should

ur
they have to relocate. These communities

ou
bo
ab
continue to live in areas regularly exposed

La
L e
le al
to flooding, increasing drinking water Ma
S O
M
S O
Drought
scarcity and falling land productivity, and
U
H T C
U
H A F RI
A
T
thus become increasingly vulnerable. A F RIC Traditional drought

coping strategies
Source: Conceived by E. Proust
Disruption, disempowerment, and D. Mokhnacheva, based
Trapped populations vulnerability on Lubkemann (2008)
When people feel the need and the Trapped population © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),
desire to migrate but are unable to do

strike, they may be unable to gain access

ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS
to help and critical services.
SUDDEN-ONSET SLOW-ONSET
When Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf DISASTERS LAND DEGRADATION,
Coast of the United States in August ECONOMIC STRESS
SEA-LEVEL RISE
2005, about 15 per cent of the resi- UNEMPLOYMENT, POVERTY,

PRECARIOUS LIVELIHOODS
dents of New Orleans (60,000 people)
found themselves trapped in the flooded Original
city, because they had been unable to vulnerability
evacuate prior to the disaster. Many of DEMOGRAPHIC STRESS
them resided in poor and marginalized PRESSURE ON RESOURCES,
SPREAD OF DISEASE
neighbourhoods.
In other places, such as Bangladesh,
POLITICAL STRESS
poor communities are affected by floods WAR, DISCRIMINATION,
or cyclones every year, causing misery LAND RIGHTS, INSECURITY
and damaging livelihoods and prop-

erty. In most cases these communities Desire / Need
are unable to migrate to safer places to migrate
due to a lack of means or support, and Inability

get used to living in waterlogged houses to migrate
several months a year. Elsewhere, pasto-
ralist communities are prevented from
pursuing their traditional nomadic life- Aggravated vulnerability
style due to changes in the environment
or conflicts over resources. TRAPPED POPULATION
A key priority
The 2011 Foresight report was the first ECONOMIC
to significantly focus academic and INSUFFICIENT MEANS
policy attention on the challenge of HEALTH

ILLNESS, DISABILITIES
trapped populations, which it identified SOCIAL
NO SOCIAL SUPPORT NETWORK ,
as among the greatest concerns ahead, GENDER-RELATED RISKS
and to call for policies focusing on those POLITICAL
Trapping CONFLICTS Source: Conceived by
who are unable to migrate from at-risk D. Mokhnacheva and S. Lee.
factors GEOGRAPHIC
© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),
areas, by helping to build local resilience ISOLATION, REMOTENESS
Gemenne, Zoï Environment
and providing opportunities for migration Network, 2015
as an adaptation strategy.
Flooded house in Satkhira district. Bangladesh, 2012. © ALESSANDRO GRASSANI 2012

Amenity migration
A far cry from the images of Positive effects of climate change? a large cereal-growing plain. Climate
disasters and degradation with The pattern of such amenity migration models do not exclude this eventuality.
which it is normally associated, could evolve when certain regions, such It is thus possible to imagine such areas
the environment can also be a as Siberia or the Great Canadian North, that are today largely empty becoming
pull factor. Certain regions have boast more temperate conditions than host regions, including for popula-
become considerably more is currently the case. The Siberian local tions fleeing their traditional habitats
developed due to favourable authorities point to this future positive due to the impacts of climate change.
environmental conditions. impact of climate change to envisage But this possibility remains extremely
the transformation of the region into hypothetical.
Throughout the long history of human
migration, the environment has been
significantly more of a pull than a push
factor. The population of Europe, for Snowbirds and sunbirds: seasonal weather migrants in North America
instance, owes a great deal to its temperate Snowbirds migration Region of Primary Region of Secondary
9.4
8.7
Sunbirds migration Residence for Snowbirds Residence for Sunbirds
climate and natural resources. The fact (%) (%)
that coastlines and deltas are so greatly Alaska
38.8
inhabited is above all due to their fertile
38.8
soil. Global population distribution is today
8.4
35.4
8.4
largely the result of this historical migration. Canada
19.9
Heliotropism
This phenomenon, known as helio‑
Midwest
8.7
3.1
tropism, is still identifiable today. Certain Northeast

regions are highly desirable due to West
their large degree of sunshine and their
17.8
pleasant climate. This is particularly the

case for the states of the Sun Belt in
9.4
the southern United States, which have

South
become considerably more developed Hawaii
since the end of the twentieth century

with the arrival of a large number of
7.7
retirees, notably in Florida. In Europe, 818,000

Florida
encouraged by the rapid increase in the snowbirds
313,000
8.3
(winter 2005)
1.6
number of regional airports and low-cost sunbirds

(summer Other foreign 1,000 km
airlines, heliotropism affects Spain, 2005)
Source: Smith and House (2006) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015
Greece, Italy and the south of France,
where certain villages in the regions of Snowbirds and sunbirds: seasonal weather migrants in North America
Poitou-Charentes, Aquitaine and Langue-
doc-Roussillon now have more British Florida’s sunny weather and beautiful summer, about 116,000 in 2005. These
residents than French. beaches attract thousands of tourists flows from North to South meet opposite
But this so-called ‘amenity’ migra- all-year round. Among these temporary visi- seasonal flows of elderly Florida residents
tors, a significant number consists of elderly escaping the summer heat; these so-called
tion, principally observed in industrial-
North Americans, aged 55 or more, heading sunbirds, who have a primary residence
ized countries, is not simply motivated to Florida every winter from northern parts in Florida, spend at least one month every
by sunshine. In many of these coun- of the country and Canada to escape cold summer in their secondary residences in
tries, inhabitants abandon city life and weather, thus forming a special category of cooler and less crowded regions of the
seasonal migrants. These so-called snow- country. These flows are much less signif-
agglomerations to move to the country-
birds usually have a secondary residence icant – about 313,000 people left Florida
side, leading to an increase in real estate in Florida, or rent temporary housing, to temporarily during the summer 2005
prices that is sometimes pronounced. spend a month or more away from the cold. season. Interestingly, a great number of
The beauty of the landscape partly In winter 2005, they numbered 818,000 sunbirds used to be snowbirds who eventu-
explains the recent demographic growth people. A less significant number of such ally settled in Florida permanently.
migrants from the North also travels in the Source: Smith and House (2006)
in regions such as the Italian Alps and the
Chilean Andes.

National relocation programme

‘From North to South’,
Russian Federation, 2011–2020
Moscow
City of origin 500 km

City of destination
District of destination
Territories with best
prospects for relocation
Norilsk
Tourists flock to Florida’s beaches year round. Fort Lauderdale, Florida, 2013. © DONNAMPER ON WIKICOMMONS 2013 Dudinka
rcle
Arctic Ci
KRASNOYARSK
KRAI
Yen
ise
iR
.
R U S S I A
Yemelyanovsky
District
Krasnoyarsk
Kuraginsky
Krasnoturansky District
District
Shushensky Yermakovsky
District District
CH IN A
K AZ.
Achinsk Sosnovoborsk
Bogotol Kansk
Nazarovo Krasnoyarsk
Ergaki National Park during the summer. Krasnoyarsk, Russia, 2012. © LARISA-K ON PIXABAY 2012
Divnogorsk
Sharypovo
KRASNOYARSK
Russian climate migrants: moving from North to South KRAI
REPUBLIC
OF
The landscape of the north of Russia is opportunities in the south of the region. The KHAKASSIA
Minusinsk
100 km
marked by numerous mono-industrial cities, support is provided through a programme
a legacy of Soviet programmes to populate led by the Russian Ministry of Regional
Siberia and to exploit the region’s resources. Development, the government of the Kras- Sources: Mashegova (2011), Norilsk City Administration (n.d.)
© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015
Their populations are now ageing and are noyarsk krai, and the municipality of Norilsk,
confronted with significantly limited employ- in partnership with the mining company
ment opportunities, in addition to the region’s Norilsk Nickel. The government is expected
harsh climatic conditions. In Krasnoyarsk to support 11,256 families between 2011
krai, a region spanning from the Arctic Circle and 2020, either through financial assis-
to the south of Russia towards the border tance, or by providing accommodation in
with China, the government is providing the areas of destination. By 2012, around
support to families wishing to move from 2,700 families had moved from Norilsk and
Norilsk, a nickel-mining city in the north, to Dudinka to southern districts.
areas with more favourable environmental Sources: Mashegova (2011), Norilsk City
and climatic conditions and economic Administration (n.d.)

Factors of
environmental
migration
P
eople have always depended on the envi- our impact on the environment, and to adapt to some of the
ronment and on nature’s resources. The irreversible changes we have caused, or face increasing social
way today’s societies are distributed was and economic costs and damage. Migration will inevitably be
shaped by geographical and environmental part of this picture, either as a social and human cost of inaction
conditions thousands and millions of years or restrictive policies, or as a positive strategy to reduce risks
ago: our prehistoric ancestors moved in and people’s vulnerability, if we make the right political and
response to environmental threats, or in economic choices. Good migration management can be
search of milder climates; entire civiliza- part of the solution, together with sound environmental and
tions thrived and collapsed as climate cycles changed. Early sustainable development policies.
religions in all parts of the world worshipped or feared nature, Part 2 of the Atlas delves into the complex interaction
and attributed disasters to the wrath or fancies of Gods. between environmental phenomena, human society and
Then humans learned to adapt to the environment, and migration, presents various sudden-onset events and slow-
gradually came to control and modify it. Scientific and onset processes, natural or human-made, which affect the
technological progress, from the development of irrigation by planet’s population, and looks into the mechanisms through
early Mesopotamian societies, to the mass mechanization of which environmental factors affect human mobility. A special
agriculture following the Industrial Revolution, and to advances focus is placed on climate change, the effects of which are
in GIS technologies and computerized risk management in the often poorly discerned from other environmental phenomena.
twentieth century, helped to adjust to the whims of nature, to Environmental migration is then discussed within the wider
predict hazards and environmental stress, and to prevent or context of the traditional drivers of migration.
reduce their impacts.
Copyright © 2016. Taylor & Francis Group. All rights reserved.
Today, our highly urbanized societies tend to forget how Understanding environmental hazards
powerful nature can be, and the significant role it has played Our planet is a very complex system of interrelated natural
throughout history in shaping the development of modern geophysical, meteorological and climatological processes,
civilization, its advances and its failures. which are associated with sudden, rapidly occurring natural
Yet, nature keeps reminding us how weak and vulnerable events, as well as with long-term slowly developing processes of
humans can be: every year, earthquakes, storms, floods environmental change. The face of the planet keeps changing:
and droughts affect millions of rural and urban households the continuous movement of tectonic plates modifies the shape
worldwide, and challenge the assumption that we control the of the continents, builds new mountains and volcanoes, and
planet. forms fault lines. These internal geological processes provoke
The increasing incidence of some of these environmental sudden-onset events such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions,
threats is attributable to the very progress humanity has tsunamis, landslides or avalanches, causing widespread
accomplished since the Industrial Revolution. Climate change damage to cities and infrastructure, and often resulting in great
constitutes one of the greatest challenges humanity will have human losses.
to face, as it calls into question the economic and lifestyle In parallel, ocean and atmospheric processes such as
choices our society has made, by threatening our very survival currents, winds and temperatures determine global and local
as a species. We have no other choice but to try to reduce weather and climate patterns, resulting in a variety of natural
Ionesco, D., Mokhnacheva, D., & Gemenne, F. (2016). The atlas of environmental migration. ProQuest Ebook Central <a
onclick=window.open('http://ebookcentral.proquest.com','_blank') href='http://ebookcentral.proquest.com' target='_blank' style='cursor: pointer;'>http://ebookcentral.proquest.com</a>
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meteorological, hydrological and climatological phenomena. sudden-onset disasters, such as nuclear or industrial accidents,
Meteorological events include storms, such as cyclones, flash floods resulting from sudden water release from dams, or
hurricanes and typhoons in tropical regions, snow or sand landslides associated with construction projects, all of which
storms, or tornadoes in other parts of the world. Changes in can have grave effects on communities.
precipitation, including seasonal changes such as monsoons, As the world’s population increases, a growing number of
or longer-term gradual changes in rainfall patterns (increased people live in areas prone to hazards, whether sudden or slow
or decreased precipitation), are also part of meteorological onset. All geographic regions and localities experience some or
processes. Hydrological phenomena are usually sudden, such other type of environmental change or stress; but some areas
as floods caused by heavy rains or snow melt, including flash are particularly disadvantaged, both in terms of exposure of
floods caused, for example, by heavy precipitation following population and key infrastructures and assets to hazards, as
periods of drought; coastal storm surges; or wet landslides well as in terms of local capacity to respond to adversity and
or mudslides associated with precipitations. Slow-onset to recover from disasters, which is often more limited in lower
hydrological processes include changes in ice cover (melting of income countries.
glaciers) and sea-level rise.
Finally, climatological phenomena include sudden-onset Climate change
extreme cold and hot temperatures (heatwaves, cold snaps, Greenhouse gas emissions from human activities since the
extreme winter conditions), dry spells, or forest and savannah nineteenth century have had a significant impact on the
wildfires, which are often human-made, but exacerbated climate and weather systems. The development of transport,
by dry and hot weather; or slow-onset processes such as industry and new technologies reliant on fossil fuels, intense
desertification and prolonged drought. extraction of natural resources, mass deforestation and greater
In relation to society, these natural events and phenomena agricultural production to feed the growing population of
may constitute a direct physical threat: they are therefore the planet have all contributed to increasing the amount of
considered as hazards, defined by UNISDR as ‘natural carbon dioxide, methane and other gases released into the
processes or phenomena that may cause loss of life, injury or atmosphere, leading to its warming at an unprecedented
other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and rate. Climate change is now considered unequivocal by
services, social and economic disruption, or environmental scientists, and is associated with increased global air and sea
damage’. When they result in human, economic or material temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, melting glaciers
losses, hazards turn into disasters. and permafrost, the acidification of oceans, rising sea levels,
In addition to natural hazards, people are exposed to human- and the growing frequency and intensity of meteorological,
made hazards, related to human activity: these can include hydrological and climatological hazards. These changes
slow-onset processes of environmental and ecosystem inevitably disturb ecological, social and economic systems,
degradation such as land degradation through the use of exacerbating existing vulnerabilities, and affecting livelihoods,
fertilizers, unsustainable agricultural practices or drilling and human security and human rights. Growing pressures on jobs
extractions; as well as air, water or soil pollution and ecosystem and resources, food and water security, or health and physical
degradation related to transport, infrastructure and other security, increasingly lead to migration, forced displacement or
development projects. Human activities may also result in forced immobility for those who do not have sufficient means
The Atlas of Environmental Migration
onclick=window.open('http://ebookcentral.proquest.com','_blank') href='http://ebookcentral.proquest.com' target='_blank' style='cursor: pointer;'>http://ebookcentral.proquest.com</a> 35

to support migration. The risks posed by climate change, while people. Instead, migration is motivated by a variety of factors,
affecting all countries and all continents regardless of borders among which environmental concerns are usually secondary.
and levels of economic development, are distributed unevenly, Environmental stress adds to other existing considerations
and affect particularly severely the most disadvantaged people that motivate migration, such as economic concerns (a
and communities in all parts of the world. search for higher incomes and more stable jobs), political
Global temperatures have already increased by about 0.89°C motives (conflict, violation of human rights, discrimination),
over the past century, resulting in alarming negative impacts demographic pressures (growing population, pressure on food
such as the melting of Arctic sea ice, which could have production systems), or social and personal motives (marriage,
irreversible effects on the entire planet if temperatures continue reuniting with family). Disasters or gradual degradation of vital
to rise. The international community has decided to limit resources can also act as an aggravating factor undermining
temperature rise to 2°C above pre-industrial levels over the livelihoods: mass destruction following disasters, or the
course of this century. To meet this target, governments would gradual loss of ecosystem services (such as the availability
have to put in place the most aggressive mitigation efforts; yet, of drinking water, agricultural potential, natural protection
current pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, provided from hazards) may for example lead to economic, political or
that they are honoured, would barely limit global temperature personal insecurity, thus indirectly contributing to migration or
rise to three degrees. Many experts in fact believe that we could displacement of populations. In fact, what sometimes seems to
be on track for a four-degree (or higher) rise, bringing about be economically or politically driven migration or displacement
irrevocable and life-threatening ecosystem and biodiversity can at times turn out to be related to underlying environmental
loss, sea-level rise, extreme temperatures and events, and causes, which can be hard to identify at first sight. Individuals
declining food stocks in a context of a fast growing world may be moving in the hope of finding better living conditions
population. As temperatures rise, several tipping points may be and economic opportunities elsewhere as their livelihoods
passed, sparking a chain reaction of irreversible changes on our become increasingly insecure due to recurrent environmental
planet. A 4°C warmer world could be a world where adaptation shocks, such as drought or floods; or in anticipation of future
would be increasingly difficult and at times impossible, where irreversible changes, such as sea-level rise.
entire mega-cities and nations could disappear under the sea, In the context of disasters, the risk of displacement is not
and could be unable to meet the needs of their population, straightforward either, and is based on several elements: the
undermining all advances humanity has made so far, leading existence of a hazard; the physical exposure of the population,
to global instability, and threatening our survival. To avoid of assets and of livelihoods to the hazard; pre-existing
such dramatic scenarios, drastic mitigation and adaptation vulnerability of people, which is a key factor in the outcome of
efforts would need to be undertaken by all international actors, a hazard and in the way in which it will impact the population;
nations, communities and individuals. For the time being, this is and finally, the preparedness and response capacity of the
still within our grasp. population. Exposure can be influenced by demographic
change: as the population grows in hazard-prone areas, more
Environment and drivers of migration people and more assets become exposed to hazards. Urban
Environmental change and events can be associated with population growth is in fact one of the greatest drivers of disaster
different mobility outcomes, forced or voluntary, short term or risk. In addition, people’s vulnerability is shaped by economic,
long term, depending on the specific context and characteristics social, political and physical factors, such as unequal wealth
of the environment, country, locality or household. It is important distribution, social inequality or discrimination, age, health or
to remember that the impacts of environment on mobility are disabilities. It can also be influenced by environmental factors:
seldom direct, except when sudden disasters physically displace recurrent hazards or gradual environmental degradation can

undermine people’s livelihoods and increase their vulnerability some forms of environmental migration. Yet, environmental
in the long term. It is often those who are already extremely change may also be associated with decreased migration: one
vulnerable and less able to prepare for and respond to a of the greatest challenges will in fact be the inability of the most
disaster, who suffer the greatest impact and highest risk of vulnerable people to migrate. At the same time, the negative
forced displacement. effects of hazards and environmental change on society and on
displacement are not inevitable: through appropriate measures
What the future holds and policies reducing disaster risks, promoting development,
The increased frequency and intensity of extreme events and strengthening communities’ resilience, and facilitating
gradual changes in the environment may increase the risk of migration as a voluntary strategy, coupled with effective climate
forced displacement, or result in greater internal or international change mitigation efforts, we can adapt to the challenge and
migration flows. Most parts of the world already experience avoid catastrophic scenarios.
Foresight’s conceptual framework for the drivers of migration

MICRO
Environmental Personal/household
Exposure to hazard, Political characteristics Migrate
loss of ecosystem services such Discrimination, persecution, Age, sex, education, wealth,
as land productivity, habitability, governance/freedom, attachment to place, attitudes,
food/energy/water security conflict/insecurity, policy preferences, marital status
incentives, direct coercion
THE INFLUENCE
OF ENVIRONMENTAL
Spatial or temporal variability

CHANGE ON DRIVERS and difference in source
and destination Decision
Gradual Actual
Sudden Perceived Demographic
Social
population
Seeking education and
size/density,
family/kin obligations
population structure,
Intervening obstacles
disease prevalence
and facilitators
Political/legal framework,
cost of moving, Stay
Economic social network,
Employment opportunities, diasporic links,
MACRO income/wages/well-being, recruitment agencies,
producer prices (e.g. agriculture), technology
consumer prices
Source: Foresight (2011) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015

MESO

Iceland (2010)
Volcano. Preventive
Geophysical disasters measures were taken after

the eruption of the
Eyjafjallajökull volcano and
800 persons were evacuated.
Italy (2009)
Earthquake. On 6 April
2009, an earthquake of
magnitude 5.8 struck the city
of L’Aquila in Abruzzo. The
death toll rose to 309 people,
Haiti (2010) while about 70,000 were left
Earthquake. The day after the homeless, displaced across
earthquake that deeply wounded the region.
Haïti, the country was mourning
220,000 fellow citizens. 300,000 were
injured and 1.5 million were
displaced. To date, 80,000 people are
still living in camps, while the capital,
Port-au-Prince, is rebuilding slowly.
Montserrat–UK (1995)
Volcano. In July 1995, the Soufrière Hills
Guatemala (2014) volcano, situated in the south of the island,
Volcano. The Fuego volcano is became active, leading 8,000 inhabitants
particularly active. After the eruption – two thirds of the population at that
on 13 September 2012, 33,000 time – to flee the island. The eruption
persons were evacuated by the turned the capital Plymouth to ashes.
authorities. They were able to return Today, about half of the population has
home within two days. relocated abroad.
People displaced
Among natural disasters,
geophysical disasters are often
Chile (2015) the first that spring to mind:
Earthquake frequency, 1976–2002 Volcano. The eruption of the Calbuco earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis
(Earthquake events exceeding 4.5 volcano in southern Chile forced the or volcanic eruptions result in
on the Richter scale during the time period)* evacuation of more than 6,000 spectacular and considerable
people. Many residents consider
leaving their hometowns damage every year.
1 10 50 100
permanently.
Population density in 2000 From the destruction of Pompeii in 79 AD
(persons per sq.km to the Lisbon earthquake in 1755, many
adjusted to match UN totals)
geophysical disasters have left a histor-
0 120,000
ical mark. We use the term to describe the
numerous disasters that are induced by a
* To produce the final output, the frequency of an earthquake hazard is calculated for each grid cell, and
the resulting grid cells are then classified into deciles (10 classes consisting of an approximately equal modification of the physical characteris-
number of grid cells). The greater the grid cell value in the final output, the higher the relative frequency of
hazard posed by earthquakes.
tics of the Earth – as opposed to climatic
or meteorological conditions. Geophys-

Sources: BBC World (2015), British Red Cross (2005), CHRR and CIESIN (2005), CIESIN and CIAT (2005),
Foresight (2011), Gunnarsson (2010), Haseeb et al. (2011), IDMC (2015), IOM (2014), Le Monde (2012, 2014a, 2014b), ical disasters are thus not directly related
UNEP (2012), USAID (2010) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015 to the climate, contrary to a very common
belief expressed in public debates.
Displacement by geophysical hazards, 2008–2014
15.8 People displaced Proportion of displacement A costly phenomenon

(millions) (%)
Since 1900, according to the EM-DAT
Geophysical database, more than 1,500 geophys-
14.5 ical disasters have occurred – which
represents a little less than 15 per year
– even though their number varies
Others greatly from year to year. Compared to
85.5
4 other disasters, geophysical disasters
1.5 1.1
1.8 1.7 are less frequent but tend to be more
0.7 Source: IDMC (2015)
© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), costly, partly because many also occur
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015. in industrialized countries. They also

Factors of environmental migration
ated.
Pakistan (2005)
Earthquake. Kashmir, located at the
intersection of Indian and Eurasian
tectonic plates, is prone to intense
Turkey (2011) seismic activity. On 8 October 2005, it China (2011)
Earthquake. The was struck by a magnitude 7.6 Earthquake. The 5.4 magnitude
earthquake that hit Van earthquake, which caused the death earthquake in Yunnan and its
province led to the of more than 8,000 and led to the numerous aftershocks led to the
displacement of 252,000 displacement of more than 3.5 million displacement of 130,000 people.
people. people.
Japan (2011)
Earthquake and Tsunami.
About 18,000 people
perished in the triple
disaster that hit the coast of
Tohoku on 11 March 2011,
while up to 350,000 were
displaced. About half of
them were displaced by the
tsunami, the other half by
China (2012) the nuclear accident.
Earthquake. An earthquake in
Yunnan and Guizhou provinces
accounted for the displacement of
185,000 people.
Indian Ocean (2004)

Democratic Republic of Earthquake and Tsunami. One of
the Congo (2002) the deadliest seismic events ever. It
took the lives of 220,000 people and
Volcano. The eruption of displaced about 2.85 million people in
Nyiragongo volcano caused a dozen countries (USAID), leading to
more than 300,000 people to a major humanitarian operation by
leave Goma. 250,000 headed IOM and UNHCR. Papua New Guinea (2014)
for Rwanda while 45,000 went
Volcano. Twenty years after Tavurvur
to Sake, Bweremana, Kirotshe, Indonesia (2014)
Minova, Masisi; the 5,000 volcano engulfed an entire town, it
Volcano. The Kelud volcano is close became active again in 2014,
others went to South Kivu
to three metropolitan areas. After the displacing nearly 20,000 people.
(Bukavu and Uvira). These
eruption on 13 February 2014,
eruptions resulted in major
Indonesian authorities ordered the
environmental degradations.
evacuation of 200,000 people who
were living within a distance of 10km
of the volcano.
induce population displacements that disasters were the outcomes of popu- which is why they require very rapid and
are often less considerable than those lations’ vulnerabilities rather than God’s efficient evacuation of the population.
resulting from other types of disasters, punishment. Nearer the present, the Such evacuations are not always
in particular meteorological disasters. earthquake that hit the Japanese city of temporary, and can lead to long-term
Between 2008 and 2014 for example, Kobe in 1995 accelerated the coordina- or permanent displacement, especially
the Internal Displacement Moni- tion of disaster prevention efforts. And it when reconstruction is impossible, or
toring Centre (IDMC) estimated that was in Kobe, 10 years later, that the first too time-consuming or too onerous to
only 14 per cent of all disaster-induced global plan for disaster risk reduction, undertake.
displacements were related to geophys- the Hyogo Framework for Action, was However, although it is difficult to fore-
ical disasters, compared to 86 per cent adopted. In 2004, the tsunami that struck cast when geophysical disasters will
related to meteorological disasters. South-East Asia also led to the first major strike, we do know where they are likely
operation by the United Nations High to strike. And these at-risk zones are
Improving disaster management Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to often highly populated: metropolises
Despite their less frequent occurrence provide assistance to victims of a natural like Tokyo, Istanbul or San Francisco
– or perhaps because of it – geophys- disaster – such operations have since are all situated on major seismic faults.
ical disasters tend to attract the most become increasingly numerous. And the slopes of the Etna volcano in
media attention, and can transform Sicily remain densely populated, despite
our approach to natural disasters. The Displacement patterns the fact that it is one of the most active
1755 Lisbon earthquake, for example, Geophysical disasters are generally volcanoes in the world.
helped people of the time to realize that difficult to forecast well in advance,

Floods, stornts and landslides
Climate and weather-related regions on the planet have witnessed India and 6.1 million in Nigeria following
hazards - in particular floods, increases in precipitation throughout the floods. Europe is also regularly hit by
storms and landslides - cause the twentieth century. The number of floods floods, mostly in Eastern Europe: in 2014
vast majority of human and cyclones, while highly variable from alone, around 140,000 people were
displacement worldwide. year to year, has also been rising since displaced by severe floods across Bosnia
the 1970s. Population growth in areas and Herzegovina, Serbia and Croatia.
Every year since 2008, climate or weather exposed to these hazards, particularly During the same year, 3,700 people
-related disasters have displaced an large cities, contributes to increasing the were displaced by floods on the western
average of 22.5 million people, repre- risk of disaster-induced displacement. coast of France and 7,800 houses were
senting more than 80 per cent of total damaged by winter floods in Southern
displacement by disasters, equivalent to Floods and landslides England temporarily displacing hundreds
62,000 people every day. Of the 30 disas- Four of the five largest displacement of households.
ters that caused largest displacement in events that occurred from 2008 to 2012 Floods are often associated with wet
2014, all but two were due to floods or were associated with hydrological disas- landslides, which cause additional
storms. Climate change is projected to ters: monsoon floods displaced 15.2 destruction. Heavy rainfall in the northern
increase the frequency and intensity of million people in China and 11 million provinces of Afghanistan throughout
extreme weather events, such as heavy in Pakistan in 201 0; in 2012, 6.9 million 2014 caused flash floods and landslides.
precipitation, floods and storms. Many people were displaced in north-east By the end of the year, hydrological
Pakistan (2010) .·
Floods. Heavy monsoon rainfall in
Pakistan caused the Indus River to China (2010)
·~
rise, displacing 11 ,000,000 people. Floods. 28 provinces, autonomous
regions and municipalities affected by
......... - .floods in the west of the country,
..
-~ forcing 15,200,000 people out of their
.•
'·'l;' . • Storm. 2,300,000 people
... 4,096,280 people were displaced in Cebu,
Leyte a~d Samar, th ;ee major islands in the Eastern
...
displaced after Cyclone Aila
....
hit the west of the country. India (2012 · Visayas region, as Typhoon Haiyan hit the country.
.• .• ......
Floods. Monsoon floods i L":'·
.r,. ',.._ '_, .__.' Papua New Guinea (2012)
the Assam State in
Tropic of Capricorn
)
CIES.IN (2005), CHRR, CIESIN coast.
ESIN, The W orld Bank
and UNEP/G I (2005), Dhar (2009),1DMC (2013, 2014, 2015),
10M and OCHA (2014), IRIN (2012), Kuo (2010), Mardiyati (2008),
Singapore Red Cross (2010), UNEP/GRID·Geneva (n.d.)
©10M (Mokhnacheva,lonesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015
disasters had affected nearly 180,000 experience levels of displacement asso- Small-scale recurrent disasters
individuals, caused the death of more ciated with storms comparable to coun- Every year, millions of people are
than 800, and damaged or destroyed tries in Latin America and the Caribbean displaced following small and medium-
agricultural land and more than 20,000 and South Asia. scale weather and climate-related
houses, many of which formed part of events; many are displaced repeat-
the cultural heritage of the country. Mega disasters edly, turning series of sudden disas-
A few large destructive events, ters into a long-term, never-ending
Storms including Hurricanes Mitch, Katrina social catastrophe. Few are able to
In 2013 and 2014, most displacement and Haiyan, have left a major mark adapt, as each new storm, flood or
was caused by meteorological disasters, on the collective memory, disrupting mudslide carries away valuable assets
particularly frequent and intense in East billions of lives, destroying homes, and destroys crops and livelihoods. Few
Asia and the Pacific, where typhoons and displacing millions, and showing are able to leave permanently and relo-
and tropical cyclones regularly hit such that nature spares no nation, rich or cate to safer areas: disasters mostly
countries as the Philippines, India, China poor. Mega disasters attract consid- affect the poorest communities living
and Bangladesh. Latin America and the erable attention from the international in hazard-prone areas, many of whom
Caribbean also experience frequent and community, and trigger wide-scale cannot afford to purchase land and safer
severe storms, although the Atlantic humanitarian response operations. In homes in less exposed areas. Some rural
hurricane season was relatively quiet most cases, however, international relief communities, however, are able to adapt
both years. High-income OECD coun- wears off quickly, and headlines shift to to seasonal floods by sending a family
tries, such as the USA, Australia or Japan other issues, while needs remain acute member to work in a larger urban centre
are equally exposed to storms, and and problems unresolved in the long run. during the wet season.
United States (2012)

United States (2005)
Storm. New Orleans hit by
hurricane Katrina, causing the
displacement of 400,000 people.
,.~~·
'.·
•l4.
o I
•
•.
......
Tropic of Cancer
A ---
Landslide. Landslide following heavy rains and

flooding in Guatemala's highlands displaced Main disasters with displaced
50,640 people. people, 2005-2013 Equator
0
Displacement by floods, storms and wet landslides, 2008-2!;h14
People displaced Proportion of displacement\
. .,
Cyclones, 2005-2011
m
(wind force)
(millions) (%) '··.·~.
Moderate - - Strong
• Flopds, j !i) 85-;29Q~ ....................... .

~
Floods, storms
r- (hazard frequency)
- High - Very high

and wet landslides
84.9 Landslides, 1985-2003
(hazard frequency)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 - High - Very high
Source: IDMC (2015) ©10M (Mokhnacheva,lonesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015
Droughts, extreme temperatures
and wildfires
Climate change is likely to result countries that were already experi- associated with droughts – malnutrition,
in more frequent droughts, encing conflict, such as Iraq, Afghani- poor sanitation and spread of diseases
wildfires and episodes of extreme stan or Somalia, droughts added to the in the absence of safe drinking water –
temperatures, affecting rural and vulnerability of communities displaced can weaken people’s ability to cope with
urban communities like never by war. For example, health impacts hardships.
before.
Wildfires and extreme temperatures
Droughts, although sometimes sudden, 829 200 Wildfires and heat waves are sudden-
have a similar, indirect, impact on migra- onset, and can result in sudden
tion as slow-onset events; they usually displacement, evacuation or migration
leave time for households to mobilize out of the exposed areas. Forest and bush
different coping strategies, and rarely fires, often caused by human activity, can
result in sudden mass displacement. spread very quickly, particularly in the
Notorious exceptions include mass context of drought, and if associated with
migration from the Great Plains in the extreme heat and low humidity. They can
USA following severe drought and dust cause significant damage to property
storms in the 1930s. and other assets, often depriving people
A severe El Niño event that started in of their means in a matter of hours or
August 2015 in Papua New Guinea minutes. Displacement associated with
caused the worst drought in the country
since the 1990s. The drought, combined
with frost, destroyed crops and reduced
water availability in many villages in the
Highlands of the country; many people
lost their harvest, and schools had to
close. Displacement by climatological Proportion of displacement
hazards, 2008–2014 by climatological hazards,
Such severe events, which can last 2008–2014
Number of people displaced
for months, can lead to a significant
Types of climatological hazards
reduction in incomes for households Proportion of displacement
Extreme Winter Conditions / Cold Wave (%)
dependent on agriculture, forcing them
Wildfire Extreme temperatures
to sell livestock, land and other assets,
Extreme Heat / Heatwave and wildfires
and eventually move out if repeated 0.7
droughts make livelihoods unviable
87 800
86 400
in the long term. Farmers depending

Other
58 500
53 600
on rain-fed agriculture, with no access

48 900
99.3
to irrigation or water storage, or to
21 600
16 800
16 300
alternative and more sustainable farming

8 400
4 300
1 900
1 700
methods, are particularly vulnerable to IDMC (2015) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),

6
such climatic shocks. Those who do not 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Gemenne, Boissière, 2015
own the land on which they live and work

Estimates of pastoralist population displacement in Somalia
may be exposed to eviction, as land loses
Monte Carlo displacement simulation based on 1,000 drought scenarios (1990–2040)
productivity, or owners decide to switch
Rainfall sensitivity test Percentage of all displaced (%)
to mechanized agriculture. Baseline 50 75 95 100
Pastoralists are also heavily affected by
30
droughts, which can jeopardize their
25
traditional routes and gradually under-
20
mine their traditional nomadic lifestyle.
15
Finally, droughts and water scarcity
10
can also lead to tensions, particularly
5
in regions already experiencing water 0
shortages, such as the Horn of Africa, 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
the Middle East or Central Asia. In some Source: Ginnetti and Franck (2014) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015

29-year-old Erdene Tuya hauls a dead sheep to a small burial ground close to her yurt. Over the past three winters, the dzud and severe winter
conditions have reduced the family’s once 2000-strong herd by half. Arkhangai province, Mongolia, 2011. © ALESSANDRO GRASSANI 2011
The challenge of data for drought-induced migration wildfires is either short or medium term,
until houses are rebuilt or alternative
Migration and displacement due to droughts of pastoralists in relation to droughts and housing options are provided, or it can
is difficult to estimate, because drought is less human-related factors, IDMC and Climate result in permanent relocation, as was
easily identified as a direct trigger of migra- Interactive have developed a Pastoralist the case with households in Russia
tion or displacement: the time lag between Livelihood and Displacement Simulator,
following the 2010 fires, some of whom
the event and the mobility response, as well helping to predict short-term and long-term
as the complexity of factors at play make it trends of drought-induced displacement. decided to leave their villages and move
difficult to directly associate the two. But The model incorporates available historical to the city.
increasingly refined agent-based or system data on a large number of climatic, environ- More frequent episodes of extreme
dynamics models now make prediction of mental and human factors, and facilitates the
temperatures or increasing annual
future migration possible. The results of a projection of displacement under different
modelling exercise applied to Tanzania in climate, environmental and demographic temperatures could eventually lead to
a UNU–EHS and CARE study showed that change scenarios, and future humanitarian, longer-term out-migration as they affect
more vulnerable households are expected development and adaptation policies or the productive capacity of people and
to migrate under drying or extreme drying interventions. ecosystems, and result in reduced crop
conditions than under extreme rain- Sources: Ginnetti and Franck (2014),
fall conditions. To examine displacement Warner et al. (2012)
yields, declining water availability and
health problems. A study in Pakistan

found that in some rural parts of the
country, heat stress had a greater impact
on migration than floods, and was asso-
ciated with long-term migration of men
as a result of decreasing farm incomes.
Canada
Drought. An increase in
Droughts and adaptive migration migration was recorded in the
When local coping strategies are limited, 1930s in times of drought in
the effects of droughts can lead to migra- regions with poor-quality
agricultural soils.
tion from rural areas to cities, where
people hope to find help and access United States
to water and other basic services. Drought. Great Plains
Dust storms caused by severe
In countries where droughts are drought, known as the Dust
recurrent, such as Mali, Mexico, Bowl, led 3.5 million people in
the USA to leave the Great Dro
India, Bangladesh or Ghana, Plains and migrate to con
communities have developed California in the 1930s.
d
coping strategies through
seasonal migration. This
type of migration is usually Mexico
Drought. Reduction of
over short periods and crop yield due to droughts
short distances, to diver- has been associated with
an increase in
sify incomes during the international migration to m
months when farming the USA.
Peru
is not possible; some Drought. The retreat of
people may also cross the glacier, longer dry
spells and heatwaves
borders for seasonal affect livelihoods and food
work, as is the case in security: while many
people go to urban
West Africa. In many centres on a daily basis,
regions in the Horn of some also engage in
seasonal and longer-term
Africa, households send a
migration in search of
younger member of their livelihood diversification.
family to work abroad and Median ratio of local
to global temperature change
send money back home. Yet,
droughts can erode assets 3.5° C
needed to support migration,
and some people may be unable to 3
use this strategy. Others may resort to
2.5
alternative, less costly forms of migra-
tion, as shown by a study in Mali where 2
short-term migration to local desti-
nations became more prevalent than 1.5
longer-term migration abroad during
the drought in the 1980s. Such local 1.25
moves, while requiring less investment

1
than long-term and long-distance migra-
tion, can still help to generate alternative
0.8
income.
0.66 Migration due to drought,
wildfires and extreme temperatures
0.5
Type of event
0.4 Drought
Wildfire
0.33
Extreme heat
0.29

Russia
Wildfire. The hottest and
driest summer on record
led to numerous wildfires
across the country in 2010,
causing the displacement
of at least 13,700 people.
Many settlements had to Mongolia
Afghanistan be rebuilt, and some
households moved Droughts. A combination
Extreme heat. of summer drought and
permanently to other
Spain 1,656 people were harsh winters with extreme
towns.
displaced due to temperatures and heavy
Wildfires displaced
extreme heat in 2012 snowfall (called dzud)
13,000 people on
in the Nangahar Pakistan results in significant
the Canary Islands, in
province, Pachier Extreme heat during livestock loss and forces
Marbella, Madrid and
Sahel Agam district and the the Rabi season herders to migrate to cities.
Valencia in 2012.
Balkh province, (November–April) The phenomenon has
Western Sahara Drought. Severe
Kishindih district. affects agricultural become more frequent
droughts in the 1970s
Droughts. Changes in agriculture income and increases over the last few decades.
and 1980s, often
contribute to people's decision to the long-term migration
accompanied by
migrate to refugee camps, but of people, mostly men.
conflict, led to
drought and harsh conditions in
migration and forced
camps lead many to leave the Bangladesh
displacement in the India
camps and migrate abroad.
region. Rural and Drought. Rainless periods
Drought.Temporary
pastoralist communities during the rice season greatly
migration is a key
Mali in particular continue to
coping strategy for
affect livelihood and food
Burkina Faso Droughts. Drought in be affected by regular security in rural areas in
households in times
Drought. Rainfall deficits the 1980s reduced droughts. north-west Bangladesh.
of drought in rural
contribute to increasing the capacity of poorest Seasonal rural migration in
Ethiopia villages.
search of agricultural
migration from drier rural areas households to migrate
to areas with more favourable Drought related employment is a key coping
abroad due to income
weather conditions. famine leads to the strategy, in particular for poor
and asset loss;
out-migration of and landless households
however, internal
household heads. dependent on rain-fed
Ghana circular migration,
used as a coping and agriculture.
Drought. Farmers relying
on rain-fed agriculture income diversification
are very sensitive to dry strategy, increased. United Republic
spells, and resort to of Tanzania
seasonal migration during Drought. Increased Australia
the dry season as a drought frequency,
coping strategy to Wildfire. Extreme heat
longer drought and low rainfall in 2009,
achieve food security. periods and water coupled with strong winds,
shortages lead to caused the fast spread of
migration to cities or bushfires, known as Black
to rural areas with Saturday bushfires,
more favourable resulting in the
conditions. displacement of 7,500
people in Victoria.
Sources: Findley (1994), Gregory (1991), IDMC (2015), IPCC (2014), Mokhnacheva (2011),
Mokhnacheva et al. (2013), Mueller et al. (2014), Storr (2010), Warner et al. (2012)

Ecosystem degradation
Ecosystems provide crucial Natural resources and ecosystem activities, have all contributed to increas-
benefits to humankind through services are key to the survival and ingly rapid biodiversity loss, land degra-
the regulation of the planet and well-being of human societies. Yet dation and deterioration of terrestrial
climate systems, and the provi- in 2005, the Millennium Ecosystem and marine ecosystems. Climate change
sion of critical resources for Assessment found that more than 60 is likely to exacerbate these trends and
survival and human activity. The per cent of ecosystem services were further jeopardize the ability of ecosys-
degradation of ecosystems is a degraded or were being used unsus- tems to provide essential services to the
key driver of migration and tainably. Deforestation, conversion of planet and its inhabitants.
displacement. major ecosystems into agricultural land
or settlements, unsustainable land and Gradual change and human security
water use, resource extraction, over- The degradation of ecosystems can
fishing, as well as urban and industrial affect different dimensions of human
MAJOR ECOSYSTEM
ENVIRONMENTAL EVENTS SERVICES MOBILITY
AND PROCESSES How does it endanger AFFECTED 1 How does it affect … and as a result affect DRIVERS
ecosystem services? well-being? the drivers of migration?
HYDROLOGICAL HAZARDS
FLOODS, LANDSLIDES 4 FOOD
1 SECURITY
GEOPHYSICAL HAZARDS
EARTHQUAKES, TSUNAMIS,
VOLCANOES
2
METEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS PROVISIONING WATER
EXTREME TEMPERATURES, SERVICES SECURITY
HEAT WAVES, STORMS Food,
Fresh water,
Raw materials
CLIMATOLOGICAL HAZARDS
DROUGHTS, FOREST FIRES
ECONOMIC
SECURITY
TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS
AND WARS
INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS,
POLLUTION
PERSONAL /
COASTAL PROCESSES POLITICAL
SEA-LEVEL RISE, COASTAL EROSION,
3
REGULATING SECURITY
SALINIZATION
SERVICES
Climate regulation,
Water purification,
5
WEATHER CHANGES
Disease regulation
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL PATTERNS ENERGY
SECURITY
ECOSYSTEM CHANGE
MELTING GLACIERS, DEFORESTATION,
LAND DEGRADATION, OVERFISHING, 6
OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
CULTURAL
GLOBAL
INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES
AND DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS
ENVIRONMENTAL
Aesthetic,
DAMS, ROADS, MINING Spiritual,
SECURITY
Tourism
EXAMPLES:
1. Ecosystem services are the direct and indirect contributions of ecosystems
1 Cyclone destroying mangrove > jeopardizing protection from future hazards to human well-being. These services are grouped into four categories:
2 Loss of agricultural land > crop yield decrease Provisioning, Regulating, Cultural, and Supporting services. Supporting services,
as overarching services, are not represented in this diagram.
3 Sea level rise and salt-water intrusion > freshwater resources affected
The arrows’ width does not represent an exact number (this is a conceptual diagram).
4 Loss of crops > famine and malnutrition
5 Epidemics > public health risks (and potential social unrest)
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005)
6 Tourism affected > job losses © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Zoï Environment Network, 2015

security, either directly, for example their community of origin and their where desertification in the north-east
through the depletion of resources used land, in some situations where envi- of Brazil, or the retreat of glaciers in
for direct consumption, or indirectly, ronmental degradation is particu- high elevation regions and ensuing
such as through the decreased ability larly severe and irreversible, migration water scarcity in the Andes are known to
of ecosystems to protect communities can become permanent. Such moves have resulted in out-migration. In other
from hazards, or through conflict over are mostly internal, as people move regions, particularly in low-lying coastal
scarce natural resources. to nearby regions with more favour- areas and islands, water and soil salin-
Gradual forms of environmental change able conditions, for example for agri- ization increasingly undermines food
mostly affect those whose livelihoods cultural, herding or fishing activities. and water security and drives popula-
depend directly on fragile ecosystems Some may move to urban centres in tions out of their original communities.
for farming, fishing, livestock herding search of alternative, usually low-skilled, Because the link between gradual envi-
and related wage labour. The degra- jobs. Some better-off households use ronmental change and migration is
dation or loss of habitat and livelihoods migration for education; a household mostly indirect, such migrants are often
due to desertification, deforestation, land survey conducted by UNU and CARE deemed to be economically driven,
degradation or gradual depletion of vital has shown that 20 per cent of migration and seldom benefit from governmental
resources, such as water, contributes from dry areas in Tanzania was moti- support, despite their high vulnerability.
to food insecurity and poverty, and may vated by the desire to improve skills
push communities towards other rural and access education. At times, internal Addressing the issue
regions or urban centres in search of migration from rural to urban areas may Cross-cutting policies are needed first to
alternative income. be the first step towards international prevent forced migration – for example
migration. by promoting sustainable land manage-
Slow-onset migration Examples of rural–urban migration due ment and livestock practices, ecosystem
Migration in the context of slow-onset to the degradation of previously arable rehabilitation and conservation, and rural
environmental change is often a circular land can be found in many parts of the development – and second to ensure
or gradual process. While some house- world, particularly in the Sahel, greatly adequate living conditions and liveli-
holds may engage in temporary migra- affected by desertification and repet- hoods at places of destination for those
tion, preserving a connection with itive droughts, and in Latin America, who decide to migrate.
In Haiti, deforestation leads to soil erosion, desertification and increasing vulnerability of people reliant on land resources for their livelihood. Haiti,
2015. © IOM 2015 (ALESSANDRO GRASSANI)

Ecosystem change and impacts on livelihoods
Ocean acidification and social

vulnerability in Alaska
Many coastal communities in south-east and
Global trends in the state of world
south-west Alaska are traditionally dependent marine stocks, 1974–2011 (% of stocks)
on the fisheries sector for subsistence and as a 100
Alaska key source of income. Important economic
Overfished
activities in Alaska depend on marine resources,
80
including commercial fishing and tourism. Yet,
ocean acidification provoked by increased
concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), to which 60 Fully fished
Historical & projected pH high-latitude oceans around Alaska are (within sustainable levels)
& dissolved CO2 particularly exposed, has strong negative 40
PH Micromoles/Kg impacts on some key marine species. As a
result, the livelihoods and food security of many 20
8.2 20 Underfished
PH communities are likely to be highly affected, in
particular for those with less access to 0
8.1 17.5
employment alternatives and income 1980 1990 2000 2010
diversification options. In such cases, migration
8.0 15
can prove to be an effective adaptation strategy.
Source: Mathis et al. (2015)
7.9 CO 2 12.5
ed Tunisia
Di s so l v
7.8 10
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Global Living Planet Index decline
28.8% of fish
1
stocks estimated as
0.8 overfished in 2011.
0.6
0.4
Marine and terrestrial
biodiversity have declined by 0.2
39% since 1970. 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
GLP Index shows that, on average, vertebrate species Depletion of fisheries in
populations are half the size they were 40 years ago Kerkennah
Kerkennah Islands are a group of
islands near the coast of Tunisia. The
local population depends mainly on
Ecuador fishing activities. However, unsustai-
unsustai
nable fishing practices led to the
3.6 million ha overexploitation and depletion of
of mangrove forests lost fisheries. Decreased incomes have
between 1980 and 2005. pushed families to seek better
livelihoods on the mainland and in
Europe; on one occasion in 2012, more
Mangrove loss and livelihoods than 600 families left Kerkennah for
in Ecuador Europe by boat. Proximity to Italy has
Mangrove forests play a key role in the turned the islands into an important
protection of coastal population from floods, departure and transit point for irregular
cyclones and erosion, acting as a natural Mangrove area, by region,1990–2000 migration from North Africa to Europe.
barrier to coastal hazards. Mangroves also (million ha)
Drought and limited water resources, as
protect land from salinity intrusion, and the well as general environmental
rich marine resources that they host provide South
America degradation, have also been driving
livelihoods and food for thousands of coastal out-migration from Kerkennah.
communities worldwide. Source: Association Noisy Projecte (2014)
In Ecuador, it is estimated that between 20%
and 50% of mangrove forests have been lost Africa
in the last few decades due to the growth of
urban settlements and infrastructure, logging,
and aquaculture. Mangroves have sustained
Asia
livelihoods and traditions in Ecuador since the

pre-colonial times; today, the ability of these
ecosystems to provide goods and services for 0 2 4 6 8
local communities is significantly challenged.
The poorest communities are disproportional- 1990 2000
ly affected by mangrove loss, and face food ELCÈD77 (2007) - CC BY-SA 3.0
insecurity and increased poverty.
Sources: Hamilton and Collins (2013), Mangrove
Action Project (n. d.)
Sources: Caspari et al. (2014), Fischer et al. (2011), FAO (2007, 2010, 2012 and 2014), Feely et al. (2006),
Hamilton and Collins (2013), Hens (n.d.), Qadir et al. (2014), Steffen et al. (2005), UNCCD (2014), UNEP (2008),
WHO and UNICEF (2014), WWF (2014) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015
TOPICS
Desertification Deforestation Water Biodiversity Fishing Mangroves

Desiccation of the Aral Sea 1960 Aralsk

USSR’s large-scale agricultural
projects carried out in the early 20th
century in Central Asia, relying on
unsustainable irrigation systems and
Nearly 1/3 of the world's arable land
extensive use of chemical fertilizers,
has been lost to erosion over the last 40
changed the ecology of the Aral Sea
years.
basin, and led to the desiccation of the Muynak Aralsk
10 million ha of arable land are lost rivers and the sea, desertification, and the
every year. 1980
salinization of water and soil. Commercial
fishing and related industries, as well as
tourism, which used to be an important
At least 1 billion people source of revenue in that area, were
are affected by desertification annihilated by the mid 1980s. Cotton
in 100 countries. production declined. The man-made
ecological disaster was exacerbated by Muynak
Around 6 million ha repeated droughts, putting greater pressure
Aralsk
of land lose productive on water resources and on households, 2000
capacity each year. which found themselves deprived of jobs, of
sources of income and food, and with no
Aral Sea alternatives at hand in the context of
monoculture economy. Muynak, once a
prosperous fishing port of Uzbekistan, is now
more than 100km away from the seashore, Muynak
Loss of tropical rainforest and its population, exposed to high rates of Aralsk
and woodlands from 1750 poverty, to difficult access to drinking water
to 2000 (% of 1700 surface) and to chronic disease, is gradually leaving. North
30 Seasonal day work and informal employment Aral
Iraq are common coping strategies in the region, dam
2009
20 as many residents of former fishing towns in
748 million Uzbekistan go to work in cities in Kazakhstan.
10 Source: Alibekov (2008)
people still lack Muynak
access to improved
drinking water 1800 1900 2000
worldwide.
Deforestation and livelihood insecurity
in Cambodia
Provinces in north-east Cambodia experienced great
Water scarcity and rural–urban loss of forest cover over the last few decades, due to
migration in Iraq Cambodia logging or to conversion of forest land for agricultural
The combined effects of recurrent droughts and purposes, settlement, mining exploration activities, or
ineffective water management in Iraq in the last infrastructure projects. As a result of deforestation,
few decades have led to the reduction of local ecosystems have lost the capacity to protect local
cropland productivity, livestock loss and drinking villages from hazards, and communities are
water scarcity. Water pollution and salinity cause increasingly affected by floods and droughts. In
major health problems, and long distances to the Around 80% of world's addition, deforestation has had a direct impact on the
nearest water point constitute another substantial forest cover has been lost to livelihoods of indigenous groups and other ethnic
challenge for some families. Competition for deforestation. minorities who use forest resources for their
scarce water resources has also led to conflict. subsistence. Food insecurity is a major challenge for
As a result of water scarcity, thousands of rural communities in these areas. Floods, drought and food
households in Iraq have been displaced or have and water shortages have been driving migration, both
left their communities in search of improved temporary and permanent, as villagers seek seasonal
access to water and employment. In other cases, work in other rural districts or cities; in some cases
populations that have been displaced by conflict entire communities choose to relocate to safer areas
in the 1980s have been unable to return to their unaffected by floods. Source: IOM (2009)
communities of origin due to water scarcity.
Source: IOM (2012)
34 million ha,
Pressure on renewable water resources, 2007 representing 11% of irrigated
(Rates of freshwater withdrawal by countries
worldwide, as a percentage of the total internal areas affected by salinization.

renewable water resources) © IOM 2009
Freshwater withdrawal (%)

100
0-10 10-25 25-50 50-100 and more Kiribati
8 8
45 5
25
Water and soil salinization
Number of countries in Kiribati
= 1 country Sea level rise in Kiribati contributes
to freshwater and soil salinization.
As a result of increased salinity,
drinking water becomes scarce and
agricultural land loses its productive
capacity, thus threatening local
© GUIGONE CAMUS 2014
communities’ water, food and
health security. To respond to this growing threat, the President of Kiribati
has purchased arable land in Fiji so as to ensure food security. In the future,
Salinization Acidification entire I-Kiribati communities may have to consider relocation to other areas.
Source: Camus (2014)

Sea-level rise and coastal risks
Sea-level rise is one of the and small islands, are among the most people are already exposed to flooding
greatest climate threats that are vulnerable to this threat. These zones in large coastal cities, both in developed
likely to affect populations and are among the most densely populated and developing countries. The numbers
cause migration in the future. regions in the world, especially in South are likely to reach much higher levels by
and South-East Asia. the middle of the century, due to popula-
According to the latest IPCC assess- tion growth in coastal cities.
ment, global mean sea level is likely to An OECD report ranking port cities
rise between 0.3 and 1 metre by 2100, with high exposure and vulnerability to Implications for migration
with a possible, but less likely, rise of up climate extremes identified the most Migration is currently the main driver of
to 2 metres in some areas. Low-elevation exposed cities in terms of population and urbanization worldwide, and as agglom-
coastal zones, including deltaic regions assets, and found that about 40 million erations in flood-prone low-lying plains
Kivalina
Germany, Halligen Islands
Shismaref Alaska
Ten small low-lying islands facing complete
Newtok disappearance due to sea-level rise.
Shaktoolik
Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Since 1990, the government has been
using sand nourishment to combat coastal London Hamburg
Vancouver erosion and protect the population. Rotterdam
Seattle
France, Soulac
Portland Due to erosion, the western
coastline of France has been
USA, Chesapeake Bay receding over the past few
San Francisco
The Chesapeake Bay decades. In Soulac, the
Los Angeles New Orleans islands have long been coastline has been
exposed to erosion and pushed almost 200m
sea-level rise, and many further inland since
of the 400 islands have 1970, leading people
Houston Miami disappeared. Since the to move out of the
Haiti early 20th
20 century, this area.
process has accelerated
due to climate change, and
today only a few islands
San Juan remain uninhabited. Large Dakar
Lomé
cities in the Bay are also
threatened by sea-level rise. Lagos
Conakry
Abidjan
Douala
Fortaleza
Coastal flood risk: one of many Guayaquil Belém
complex drivers of coastal Population living below

the 1-in-100 year
migration Recife flood elevation (2010)* Luanda
(per km of coastal length)
Coastal flood risk depends on several Lima
Salvador 0
factors including the number of people 3,800
living at low-elevation levels and the 20,000
Grande Vitó
Vitória
heights of extreme sea-level events. For
example, extreme water levels in the Rio de Janeiro 45,000
North Sea are much higher than in the Baixada Santista 110,000
Mediterranean Sea, thus people living (Santos)
on the same low-elevation level face a 1,008,000
greater risk by the North Sea than by the Porto Alegre
Mediterranean. The number of people

Montevideo Case studies Cape Town
living below the height of a 1-in-100 year
* not taking existing defences and
extreme sea-level event is thus a good Buenos Aires potential adaptation measures into account
indicator of the flood risk different loca- Sources: Arenstam Gibbons and Nicholls (2006), Centre for
tions are facing. Climate Adaptation (n.d.), Hinkel et al. (2014), IFEN (2006),
Source: Hinkel et al. (2014) IPCC (2014), Nicholls et al. (2008), Rowling (2014), Siméoni
and Ballu (2012), Win (2014), Wöffler et al. (2012)

and deltas continue to expand the risk or in anticipation thereof. Small Island risk of submersion; others, like Tuvalu,
posed by sea-level rise (salinization Developing States are often particu- are looking into bilateral cooperation
of soil and freshwater reserves, more larly affected due to their low elevation, with neighbouring countries to facilitate
frequent flooding and bigger storm limited territory and high dependence migration abroad. Of great concern is the
surges) is exacerbated. on natural resources and agriculture situation of people with fewer assets who
If coasts are not protected, sea-level rise for subsistence. As salt-water intrusion may be unable to leave, thus becoming
could lead to the destruction of infra- threatens food and water security, and trapped in flood- and erosion-prone
structure and of entire villages through regular floods and encroachment of areas.
coastal erosion, and may force people the sea affect towns and villages, entire
to leave affected areas. There are many communities have to consider perma- Adapting to sea-level rise
past and existing examples of migra- nent relocation to larger islands. The While many areas across the world are
tion, displacement and relocation in government of Kiribati has purchased exposed, the actual impacts of sea-level
response to sea-level rise and erosion, new land in Fiji in anticipation of the rise will depend on measures taken by
governments, cities and communities to
prevent and adapt to such risks, and to
St. Petersburg
protect the population, assets and key
infrastructure. For example, the Neth-
erlands is particularly exposed; yet the
country has reduced the risk of flooding
through the construction of dikes, levees,
Tianjin Tokyo dams and flood barriers. Other cities,
Istanbul
particularly in developing coun-
tries, are less well equipped, which
puts their population at great risk.
Bangladesh Shanghai
Karachi Dhaka
Egypt Kolkata
Osaka-Kobe
Guangzhou
Surat
Dubai
Hong Kong
Rangoon
Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands

Mumbai
In 2006, the 2,000 Choiseul, a township located
Bangkok inhabitants of Han islet 2m above the sea level, is
Manila
initiated a relocation plan threatened by sea-level rise.
Ho Chi Minh City to adapt to sea-level rise, Authorities are planning to
erosion, salinization and relocate its 1,000 inhabitants.
Kuala Lumpur food insecurity.
Mogadishu Maldives
Dar es-Salaam
Vanuatu
Jakarta
Following significant
Coastal agglomerations exposed to extreme water levels (2005)* floods due to sea-level
(Not taking potential adaptation measures into account) rise, Lataw village on
Torres Island was
Total city population (2005) relocated further inland
(millions) in 2004.
Tuvalu
Maputo The 4,500 inhabitants of
1 2 5 10 35.2 Funafuti Island, located 2m
Durban
City population living below the 1-in-100 year above sea-level, are facing
flood elevation (2005)* (% population) Sidney sea-level rise leading to
growing coastal erosion and
(Discretization: Melbourne
salinization. Yet migration is
0 1.6 8 23 100 nested means) considered as a measure of
last resort.

Rising sea and coastal
risks: case studies
2027
2022
2017
2012
2007 2005
Sea-level rise and erosion in Alaska 1996
Climate change-induced coastal erosion,

largely due to thawing permafrost and aggra-
1983
vated by repeated storms, affects several
communities on the west coast of Alaska.
Ninglick River
Infrastructure built to protect villages from
floods and erosion has not been able to with- 500 m
stand extreme weather events or prevent land Sources: Newtok, Alaska,
loss, and the residents of the villages of Kiva- 6 June, 2005. State of
1954
lina, Shishmaref, Shaktoolik and Newtok have Alaska, Dept. of Commerce,
Community & Economic
decided to relocate, in the absence of viable Newtok is a Yup’ik Eskimo village with about 350 residents, located within
Development (DCCED),
in situ adaptation measures. Yet, the long- the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, bordered by the Ninglick River to the south. Division of Community and
The river bank has been eroding at a fast pace, with the coastline receding
term habitability of proposed relocation sites 10 to 30 metres per year. The map shows historical shorelines and erosion
Regional Affairs, courtesy of
George Plumley (DCCED)
remains questionable in a coastal plain prone projections made by the US Army Corps of Engineers until 2027. According © IOM (Mokhnacheva,
to erosion and permafrost melt, and commu- to these projections, some key buildings and infrastructure could have Ionesco), Gemenne,
nities have not been able to relocate so far due disappeared by then. Sciences Po, 2015
to financial and institutional constraints. Mean-
while, erosion continues, causing substantive
damage to roads, buildings, railways and other
key facilities, and threatening the livelihoods of
vulnerable indigenous communities.
Source: Bronen and Chapin (2013)
Vulnerability in low-lying coastal

areas in Haiti
Haiti is one of the most exposed countries to

climate change on account of its location in a
zone subject to numerous climatic and mete-
orological hazards, its small surface area, and
its largely steep terrain. Human activities such

as deforestation, coupled with the inadequacy
of environmental policies, have increased
the country’s degradation and vulnerability.
Its coastline, the longest in the West Indies,
means it is particularly exposed to sea-level
rise (1.8mm per year) and erosion. The urban
settlements situated on the narrow coastal
plains, particularly in the south of the island,
regularly experience severe flooding caused
by storms and suffer from inadequate protec-
tion infrastructure which does not allow for
water evacuation. The first victims of this
flooding are the inhabitants of shanty towns
that have emerged in low-lying coastal areas The Cité Soleil is considered to be the poorest, most densely populated, and most violent area in
on the outskirts of urban settlements, such as Haiti. Absence of economic activity puts its population of around 400,000 people below the poverty
Cité Soleil in Port-au-Prince. line. As the sea-level rises, the area is often flooded. Village des Rapatriés, Cité Soleil, Port-au-
Sources: OIM (2015), Singh and Cohen (2014) Prince, Haiti, 2015. © ALESSANDRO GRASSANI 2015

Egypt, Abu Qir Bay
The Abu Qir coastal zone is a densely popu-

lated area of the Nile delta, partly located
below sea level. The area, home to at least one
million people, is protected from flooding by
the Mohamed Ali Sea Wall. Unplanned urban
Mediterranean Sea Mitubas
development puts additional pressure on the Egypt, Abu Qir Bay, 2012
coast, and makes the population, economic
activity and infrastructure vulnerable to Areas below 1m above sea level
Muntazah
sea-level rise, salinization and flooding. Idku
Agriculture land
Source: IOM (2014a, 2014b) Aquaculture Population
Urban areas (thousands):
Al Raml
Roads
Kafr Al Dawwar
150 440 1,174
Abu Hummus
Abu I Matamir Source: Based on Rosetta GeoDatabase data provided by

Damanhur Dr. M. El Raey, and IOM (2014a)
10 km
Coastal risks in the

Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta
The Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta in Bangla-

desh and India, the world’s most populated
delta, is heavily affected by sea-level rise,
coastal erosion and salt-water intrusion. IPCC
estimated in 2007 that a sea-level rise of 1
metre could affect 15 million people in Bang-
Finding durable solutions: the case of the Maldives ladesh and potentially cause the loss of 20
per cent of the country’s land in the absence
In the Maldives, a comprehensive govern- return; where possible, houses were built in of adaptation measures. Rapidly increasing
mental programme aims to protect islanders safer areas further inland, and in some cases, population pressure on land and resources in
coastal areas constitutes another key vulner-
from climate-change induced meteorolog- islands were artificially enlarged to facilitate

ical and coastal risks, including by moving construction and reduce exposure to future ability factor. In many areas, people are being
communities from small islands to larger floods and coastal disasters. The second forced to abandon traditional livelihoods, such
and safer ones. The programme was put solution involved building new houses on as fishing, and to seek employment in cities.
in place following the 2004 tsunami in the islands to which people had temporarily evac- Source: IPCC (2014)
Indian Ocean, which forced the evacuation uated, and facilitating their integration within
of more than 20,000 people in the Maldives, local communities. Finally, where return and
many of whom had to go to other islands resettlement to existing settlements were not
or atolls. While half of them could return to possible, the government built new villages
their homes a few weeks after the disaster, and infrastructure on previously uninhabited
many remained displaced due to signifi- islands. The ‘Safer Islands’ programme has
cant damage to their houses and islands. To been active since 2009 to support commu-
help the affected population return to normal nities and infrastructures exposed to coastal
life, the government designed three types of risks and to strengthen local resilience in a
durable solutions. The first solution consisted durable manner.
in rebuilding original houses and facilitating Source: Duvat and Magnan (2014)
Suterkhali, Bangladesh, 2015. © SABIRA COELHO 2015.

Industrial accidents
Industrial accidents,
1962–2011
United
Industrial accidents, which are the assumption that they would return
States
often neglected in studies on to their homes in a matter of days, but
environmental migration, have they would in fact never return – they Picher (1996–2011)
similar consequences to natural were rehoused in Slavutych, a specially Mine waste contamination
20,000 people relocated
disasters. created new town 38km from the power
Mining waste contaminated with lead
station. The relocation of evacuees made Picher one of the most toxic
Industrial accidents that release toxic continued long after the event: almost places in the USA. Mass evacuations
started in 1996 after the publication
particles and those that release radioac- 200,000 people left the contaminated of an alarming report. To date,
tive particles are the two major types of area between the end of the 1980s and 20,000 people have been relocated
and only 6 families remain in Picher.
disasters of this nature that cause popu- the middle of the 1990s, departures that
lation displacement. were either organized by the authori-
ties or voluntary departures due to fears Three Mile Island (1979)
Major chemical and nuclear regarding health risks or in response Nuclear accident
140,000 people evacuated
accidents to the progressive disintegration of the
People were evacuated after
In July 1976, an explosion at a chemical region’s social and economic life. the nuclear meltdown in Three
plant near Seveso in Lombardy, in the On 11 March 2011, the Fukushima Mile Island (Pennsylvania).
They were able to return within
north of Italy, released a cloud of dioxin. Daiichi power station in the Tohoku 3 weeks.
It took two weeks to evacuate the 750 region located on Japan’s northern
inhabitants of the affected area, some of coast also experienced a level 7 acci-
whom were suffering from chloracne. In dent following a tsunami that caused
1984, in Bhopal, India, a pesticide factory the flooding of the generators. The
operated by the Union Carbide group total number of evacuees from Fukus-
exploded, releasing a 25km2 toxic cloud hima could exceed 200,000 people, the
over a densely populated area around majority of whom will either not be able
the factory with 800,000 inhabitants. The or want to return to their homes.
Bhopal industrial accident is considered For this type of disaster it is difficult to
as the worst in history, killing 25,000 establish the number of displaced people Argentina
people, contaminating 300,000 others, with any degree of certainty, due to the
and displacing hundreds of thousands. fact that evacuation is organized in
In 1979, an accident damaged the successive steps, and because many Epecuen (1985)
cooling system of the Three-Mile Island inhabitants make the decision to Dam flood
1,500 people fled
nuclear power station, in Pennsylvania, leave themselves, including several
After a succession of wet winters
in the United States. It did not claim any years after the accident. and a particularly heavy rainstorm,
direct victims, but it had a profound effect the lake burst its banks and the
wall retaining the water failed.
on public opinion. This accident, consid- A complex return process The village was immersed in 10m
ered as a harbinger of Chernobyl and Industrial accidents cause consider- of corrosive salt-water forcing the
1,500 villagers to flee. Today the

Fukushima, did not give rise to compul- able, brutal and often irreversible envi- waters are receding, uncovering
sory evacuations, but tens of thousands ronmental degradation, and lead to a a site lost 30 years ago.
of families living in proximity to the power level of displacement comparable to
Sources: Centemeri (2014), Hasegawa (2013, 2015), L'OBS
station, fearing for their health, decided that caused by natural disasters. There (2004), Rubinkam (2012), Shepherd (2014), Shrivastava (1996),
Taylor (2011), UNHCR (1996), USNRC (2014), Viglione and
to temporarily leave their homes. are, however, certain differences that Rogger (2015) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne,
Seven years later, during security tests, mean they must be addressed sepa- Stienne, 2015
the Chernobyl power station in Ukraine rately among the series of events that
experienced a level 7 accident, the bring about environmental migration.
highest on the scale of nuclear accidents. First of all, by definition, it is impossible
Yet the Soviet authorities only began pre-emptively evacuate populations, populations will not be able to return to
evacuating the population, notably the so much so that at the moment when their homes for a considerable period of
50,000 inhabitants of the nearby town of evacuation can begin, a large number of time. This is particularly true in the case
Pripyat, the following day. Some 100,000 victims have already been poisoned or of nuclear accidents: in both Chernobyl
other people were progressively evacu- contaminated. The issue of return also and Fukushima, the contaminated zones
ated during the following four months. has to be dealt with differently: contrary will remain dangerous for many decades,
The first inhabitants to leave did so on to what the authorities generally affirm, irrespective of efforts to decontaminate

Fukushima (2011)
Nuclear accident
Due to the earthquake and the
subsequent tsunami, the
Fukushima Nuclear Plant was
severely damaged causing the
Semipalatinsk evacuation of at least 150,000
(1949–1989) people within a 20km radius of
Centralia (1962)
Nuclear accident the accident.
Coal mine fire
1,435 people evacuated 160,000 people evacuated Japan
The Centralia coal mine fire Nuclear testing conducted by
led to a mass evacuation and the Soviet Union in the region
the abandonment of the in the second half of the 20th
borough as the fire is still century resulted in serious
burning at a depth of 91m. environmental and health Zhumadian City (1975)
Only 10 people now inhabit problems due to radiation. Dam flood
Centralia. As a result, tens of thousands 11 million people lost their
Chernobyl (1986) of people moved out of the homes
Nuclear accident region to safer areas in
Kazakhstan or neighbouring Following heavy rain, the dam
countries after the breakup failed creating a wave 10km
More than 350,000 people wide and 3m to 7m high. In
were evacuated and
of the USSR. China addition to the high number of
resettled after the casualties, 11 million people
catastrophic nuclear lost their homes.
accident that occurred Kazakhstan
at the Chernobyl Nuclear
Power Plant.
France Ukraine
India
Italy
Toulouse (2001) Seveso (1976) Bhopal (1984)

Industrial accident Toxic cloud Toxic cloud
6,000 people relocated 736 people evacuated 600,000 people evacuated
After a chemical accident and The Bhopal gas leak
Following the explosion of
a toxic red cloud outbreak, followed by a toxic cloud led
chemical factory AZF, to two mass evacuations of
736 evacuees left the town.
6,000 people were 600,000 people in total.
in need of relocation.
Migration dynamics in Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan

Omsk Novosibirsk Migration
Barnaul Out-migration
from affected
RUSSIA area
Migration
Pavlodar into cities
Astana Population
Semey Russian
Kazakh
them. The areas in the immediate vicinity Uighur
Karaganda Radiation
of the affected power stations will be impacts on Ukrainian
health and
indefinitely inaccessible. Evacuees agriculture, Other
KAZAKHSTAN former German
must thus build a whole new life. Yet, Semipalatinsk
nuclear test site Korean
issues concerning compensation must CHINA Chinese
Balkhash
be addressed, which are essential to the Sparsely
populated
majority of evacuees in order to rebuild areas
Taldykorgan
their lives elsewhere. Although, unlike Source: Map
Ghulja provided by Zoï
‘natural’ disasters, the culprits of indus- Environment
trial accidents are easily identifiable, that Network, adapted
Bishkek Almaty Kuqa by A. Stienne.
does not necessarily mean that victims Taraz © Zoï Environment
obtain compensation.
0 200 km
KYRGYZSTAN Network, 2014.
K Y R G Y Z S TA N

Infrastructure and land grabbing
Among the causes of to the expropriation of local communities, several estimates at the time, 10 to 15
environmental degradation that forcing millions of people into exile every million people were displaced every year
lead to population displacement, year. At the same time, these construc- due to dam construction.
development and infrastructure tion projects attract migrant workers. This work led the principal sponsors of
projects remain generally such infrastructure, foremost among
unnoticed. The resumption of dam construction which was the World Bank, to adopt a
From the 1990s onwards, researchers series of measures designed to limit
However, whether they involve roads, began to sound the alarm regarding the the environmental and social impact of
infrastructure for major cultural events, dislocation of local communities caused dams, notably by carrying out prelimi-
mining or industrial sites, or dams, such by the construction of numerous dams nary impact assessments.
projects devastate ecosystems and lead throughout the world. According to A brief and relative lull followed, but
Displacement associated with development and infrastructure projects

Dam Russia (2007–2017)
XXII Olympic Winter Games
Major global event
Natural resource extraction The construction of facilities and
infrastructure for the 2014 Winter Olympics
Transport in Sochi resulted in the relocation of more
than 1,000 people. The construction
Urban development projects also attracted many migrant
workers, despite harsh working conditions.
This is a non-exhaustive set of examples of displacement.
Romania (2002–2012)
‘Rosia Montana Mining Project’
Santo Domingo The expansion of the Rosia Montana gold mining
Canada (1998) (1992) area led to the resettlement of 1,200 people
between 2002 and 2012.
XV Olympic Winter Games 500th Columbus Anniversary
Olympics-driven redevelopment celebrations Spain (1993)
in Calgary led to the Urban redevelopment projects in Port expansion in La Punta
Serbia (2008)
displacement of 2,000 people. preparation for the event resulted in Kolubara Mine
the displacement of 30,000 families. An urban development plan for the city of
Valencia was meant to turn a small traditional The whole town of Vreoci was
agricultural district into an urbanized area. The relocated to expand the
plan was eventually cancelled in 2013, but Kolubara lignite mine, affecting
agricultural land and farmhouses had already 1,920 households.
been destroyed, and 100 families displaced.
Guatemala Ethiopia
(1980s) (2006)
Ghana Gilgel Gibe III Dam
Chixoy Dam
(1990–1998) The Gilgel Gibe III
The Chixoy Dam was built on the
Tarkwa Mines
Chixoy River in the early 1980s and dam project led to the
displaced more than 3,500 Maya Half of Ghana’s large gold resettlement of 355
Achi community members. mines are located in the households. 70% of
Tarkwa district, where about people were
30,000 people were displaced displaced as a result
Peru (2014) between 1990 and 1998. of the Chida-Soda
Toromocho Project road realignment.
The Chinese-owned copper mining
company has built a new town to relocate Brazil (since 2011)
more than 5,000 people living in Belo Monte Dam
Morococha, a town to be demolished to
20,000 people are expected to be
gain access to copper reserves.
displaced by flooding the reservoir, Nigeria
including many indigenous
(20th & 21st Centuries)
Argentina, Paraguay communities. The construction work
has also been attracting thousands Slum clearance programmes, 1928,
(1994) of migrant workers seeking 1955, 1980s, 1990s, 2000, 2012
Yacyretá Dam employment on the construction site.
The city of Lagos witnessed several slum
The flooding of the reservoir of the Yacyretá clearance and resettlement programmes
Dam, constructed along the Prana river, throughout the 20th century, as part of
resulted in the displacement of tens of urban renewal and redevelopment
thousands of local residents, including schemes under different governments.
indigenous communities. These programmes resulted in the
displacement of up to 750,000 people.

then climate change put dam construc- Land grabbing: a booming private conglomerates, but also some-
tion back on the agenda with the aim of phenomenon times States, continues to increase. The
increasing the production of hydroelec- It is thus necessary to highlight the land is then used for intensive agricul-
tric energy and reducing the consump- following paradox: projects designed ture, including crops for biofuels, and the
tion of fossil fuels. The Belo-Monte to combat climate change can lead to farmers who previously worked the land
dam, on the Xingu River in the Brazilian new instances of population displace- are driven away. The true extent of the
Amazon, which is emblematic of this ment. Another example is the develop- displacement linked to this phenomenon
new series of construction, provoked ment of crop cultivation for biofuels, which is not yet known, but according to esti-
a wave of international protest. Its is appropriating increasingly more land mates from the NGO Land Matrix, more
construction, started in 2012, will lead around the world. This phenomenon is also than 1,000 contracts of this kind have
to the displacement of numerous indig- largely underestimated among the factors been signed, covering a surface area of
enous communities. of migration; the number of countries that more than 40 million hectares, namely
sell their land to the highest bidder, often around twice the size of Senegal.
China (2012)
Three Gorges Dam
The world's largest hydropower
project has displaced more than
1.3 million people; the number is
growing as the construction has
increased the risk of landslides.
South Korea (1998)

XXIV Summer Olympic Games
India (2010) The construction work undertaken for the
XIX Commonwealth Games Seoul 1988 Summer Olympics led to the
displacement of 720,000 people.
The mega-event-related urban
redevelopment project and
demolition of slums resulted
in the displacement of 35,000
families. China (2010)
World Expo 2010
The 2010 World Expo-related urban development
projects in Shanghai led to the eviction or
displacement of more than 418,000 people.
China (1998–2003)
Southern Yunnan Road Development Project
The construction of a 147km four-lane expressway required the
relocation of more than 2,000 people; about 19,000 people lost
their farmland.
India
Cambodia (2006)
(early 2000s) Philippines

Cambodian Railway
New Town Kolkata
Rehabilitation Project • Sixth Road Project
The development of a
Over 4,000 families living The Sixth Road Project designed to develop and rehabilitate
new township in Rajarhat,
along the tracks were affected Indonesia the national road network resulted in the displacement of
to the north-east of
Kolkata, which aimed to
by the railway rehabilitation (since 1972) thousands of people, mostly living in illegal settlements along
project, losing property and Grasberg Mine the roads.
address problems
livelihoods. • North Rail-South Rail Linkage Project
associated with urban The development of the
congestion and poor
housing in the Bangladesh largest gold mine in the
world caused the
The construction of the railway through Metro Manila resulted
in the relocation of around 35,000 families from informal
metropolitan area, (2015–2019) displacement of 15,000 settlements along the trails.
resulted in the people, mostly
displacement of hundreds Akhaura–Laksam Double
Track Project indigenous groups.
of families who were
living in the project area. According to the Resettlement
Plan, more than 10,000 people
are expected to be physically
and economically impacted by
the construction of a second
railway track. Sources: ADB (n.d.a), Beirne (2014), COHRE (2007), EJ Atlas (n.d.),
Human Rights Advocates (2014), International Rivers (n.d.), Jelenkovic (2012),
Leary and McCarthy (2013), Satiroglu and Choi (2015), Terminski (2012), Vesalon and Cretan (2012)

The regional impacts of climate
change
Climate change affects all regions or will not be undertaken in the coming changes, reduced water availability,
of the world, but its regional and years. and changes in ecosystems, including
local impacts are uneven, and These regional maps show the key climatic in mountain regions); as well as related
hard to predict accurately. risks and impacts (increased or decreased social challenges (vulnerable indigenous
precipitation, increased monsoon precip- populations, major cities, and densely
The local effects and vulnerability of itation extremes, increasing frequency populated areas affected by sea-level
populations will depend greatly on of cyclones, desertification, increased rise and other hazards). The maps also
local exposure, development and adap- frequency of wildfires, melting of glaciers identify climate change ‘hotspots’, which
tive capacity, future demographic and and permafrost, coral bleaching); the main are expected to be affected particularly
economic changes, as well as on miti- consequences (depletion of fisheries and severely as they experience a combina-
gation and adaptation policies that will biodiversity loss, negative agricultural tion of several extreme climatic risks.
North America
Climate change hotspot
Risk of desertification
More precipitation
Less precipitation
Negative agricultural changes
Changes in ecosystems
Changes in arctic ecosystems
Depletion of fisheries
Shift of the permafrost
border to the north
Increasing frequency of bushfires Vancouver
Impact on mountain regions
Vulnerable indigenous communities

Toronto
Increasing frequency or
intensity of cyclones Chicago New York
(uncertain) San Francisco
Philadelphia
Sea-level rise concerns
and affected major cities
Melting of glaciers and sea ice Los Angeles Dallas Mississippi delta
Shift of the permafrost border to the north New Orleans
or recession of isolated areas
Caribbean
Houston Miami Coral reefs at risk
Santo
Megacities Mexico City
More than 20 million inhabitants
Population density
10–20 million inhabitants
Dense
Moderate
(selected cities) Sparse Sources: IPCC (2013, 2014) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Zoï Environment Network, 2015

Americas its urban centres and wildfires asso- expected to decrease, exposing more
Change in precipitation patterns is ciated with higher temperatures and people to a much higher risk of food
predicted across the Americas with lower rainfall in the Western regions. insecurity across the American conti-
varying trends in annual rainfall shifts, In North America and in the Andean nents. Coastal mega-cities, coastlines
leading to water-related disasters such region of South America, climate and adjacent coastal regions are also
as precipitation-induced floods, flash change is projected to decrease annual under threat from rising sea levels in
floods, drought with consequent wild- runoff and water availability due to the North and South America as well. Inten-
fire danger and extreme events caused retreat of glaciers and melting of snow sifying tropical storm formation also
by the interaction of wind and water cover. Along with changes in terres- poses additional perils to densely popu-
(e.g. storm surges). North America, in trial and marine ecosystems, yields and lated continental coastal areas and small
particular, faces more heat waves in quality of food crops and fisheries are islands of the Caribbean region.
Santo Caribbean
Coral reefs at risk
Mexico City
South America
Mesoamerica
Risk of desertification Sharp increase in extinction of Bogota
mammals, birds, butterflies,
frogs and reptiles by 2050
More precipitation
Less precipitation
Negative agricultural changes
Changes in ecosystems A m a z o n i a
Reduced water availability
o
Recife
d
Lima
a
Melting of glaciers Salvador

r
r
Impact on mountain regions e

C
Coral bleaching
Sea-level rise concerns São Paulo

and affected
a major cities Rio de Janeiro
Santiago
Megacities
More than 20 million inhabitants Buenos Aires Montevideo
La Plata delta
10–20 million inhabitants Sea-level rise concerns
5 –10 million inhabitants
(selected cities)
Sources: IPCC (2013, 2014) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),

Gemenne, Zoï Environment Network, 2015
Population density
Dense Moderate Sparse

Asia and rural livelihoods and settlements Asia and the Pacific is already the
The densely populated cities of large through increased river and sea flooding, world’s most natural disaster-prone
mega-deltas on the Asian coastline which damages infrastructure, and salt- area, and climate change is anticipated
face high exposure to sea-level rise, water intrusion into low-lying cropland to accelerate the frequency and inten-
storm surges and river flooding. As causing considerable damage to crops. sity of such weather-related extreme
coastal cities expand through acceler- In addition to food and water security, events. According to the IDMC, China,
ating urbanization, many of the most floods and droughts constitute health India and the Philippines accounted for
vulnerable people settle in hazard- risks as illness and death from water- the majority of the people displaced
prone areas on the margins of cities, and borne diseases, heat stress and malnutri- by disasters worldwide between 2008
become increasingly exposed to disas- tion due to droughts are expected to rise and 2014.
ters. Climate change threatens urban in East, South and South-East Asia.
Megacities
More than 20 million inhabitants
(selected cities)
Population density
Dense Shift of the permafrost

Moderate border to the north
Sparse
Istanbul Sources: IPCC (2013, 2014) © IOM

(Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),
Gemenne, Zoï Environment
Network, 2015
Beijing Seoul
Tehran
OsakaTokyo
Tianjin
Yangtze delta
Shanghai
Delhi Guangzhou
Pacific islands
Karachi Dhaka Hanoi Coral reefs at risk
Kolkata Red River
delta Sea-level rise concerns
Mumbai Ganges
deltaRangoon
Manila
Asia ChennaiBangkok
Mekong delta Ho Chi
Minh City
Climate change hotspot Indian Ocean
islands
Sea-level rise concerns Malay Archipelago Port
More precipitation Coral reefs at risk Jakarta Coral reefs at risk Moresby
Less precipitation Melting of glaciers and sea ice
Negative agricultural changes Impact on mountain regions

Increasing frequency
Changes in ecosystems Increasing frequency of bushfires or intensity of
cyclones (uncertain)
Changes in arctic ecosystems Vulnerable indigenous communities
Depletion of fisheries Increasing monsoonal precipitation extremes and affected major cities

Australasia and Oceania

In Australia and New Zealand, climate
change is expected to reduce agricul-
tural productivity and lead to a decline
in species diversity. Warmer water
temperatures and rising acidity increas-
ingly lead to the loss of biodiversity of
marine ecosystems and the benefits they
provide as sustainable livelihood sources
(fisheries and tourism) and natural
barriers against storm formation. Pacific
small island States face inundation of
low-lying territories due to sea-level rise
and reduction in rainfall and saliniza-
tion, leading to fresh-water scarcity and Most of South Tarawa, the capital of the Republic of Kiribati, is less than 3 metres above sea level.
reduction of agricultural productivity. South Tarawa, Republic of Kiribati, 2005. © GOVERNMENT OF KIRIBATI ON WIKICOMMONS 2013
Largest cities
(selected cities)
Queensland wet tropics Pacific islands
and Great Barrier Reef
Coral reefs at risk Population density
Kakadu
wetlands Dense
Moderate
Sparse
Brisbane
Murray-Darling basin
and alpine zone
Sydney
Northland to
Adelaide Auckland Bay of Plenty
Melbourne
Perth
Alpine zone
Australasia and Oceania
Climate change hotspot Negative agricultural changes Melting of glaciers and sea ice
Risk of desertification Changes in ecosystems Impact on mountain regions
More precipitation Changes in Antarctic ecosystems Increasing frequency of bushfires
Less precipitation Depletion of fisheries Vulnerable indigenous communities
Increasing frequency or Increasing weather extremes Coral bleaching

intensity of cyclones
A n t a r c t i c a Sources: IPCC (2013, 2014) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),


Europe increased in Europe, heat-related health ecosystems, and ground destabilization
Europe is expected to be affected by a risks and mortality rates have been are foreseen. In the Mediterranean and
wide range of impacts of climate change, rising, especially in urban heat islands. southern Europe, higher temperatures
including more frequent and intense In Central and Eastern Europe, summer and drought are predicted to reduce
heavy precipitation events, more rainfall is projected to decrease, leading water availability and crop produc-
frequent heat waves, retreating glaciers to higher water stress and an increase in tivity as well as to increase the risk of
and changing terrestrial ecosystems. peatland fires. In northern Europe, more wildfires.
As the frequency of heat waves has frequent winter floods, endangered
Shift of the permafrost

border to the north
Megacities
(selected cities) St. Petersburg
Population density
Amsterdam Moscow
Dense
Rotterdam
Moderate Rhine delta Hamburg
Sparse London
Berlin
Paris Kiev
Alps
Venice
Venice
Madrid
Rome Istanbul
M
e
d
i t
Europe e r
r a
n e a
Climate change hotspot n b a s i n
Risk of desertification Impact on mountain regions
More precipitation Sea-level rise concerns and affected major cities
Less precipitation Depletion of fisheries Sources: IPCC (2013, 2014) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),
Negative agricultural changes Increasing frequency of bushfires
Changes in ecosystems Melting of glaciers

Africa
Climate change is expected to challenge
food and water security in sub-Saharan
Africa, endangering lives and livelihoods.
As precipitation patterns shift, yields
from rain-fed agriculture are predicted
to fall and compounded stress on water
resources is foreseen to be intensi-
fied with escalated risks of flooding,
drought and desertification. Africa, along
with Asia, is urbanizing faster than any
other region in the world. Rapid urbani-
zation combined with overall population
growth push socio-economically vulner-
able populations into living in the most
environmentally hazardous and densely
populated areas, thus increasing the In 2011, thousands of Kenyans, Somalis and Ethiopians were forced to take long arduous journeys
potential number of people affected and in search of survival as the Horn of Africa experienced the worst drought in 60 years. Kenya,
2011. © IOM 2011
displaced by natural disasters.
Megacities
Alexandria Nile Delta
Cairo
(selected cities)
Population density
Dense
Dakar Moderate
Khartoum Massawa
Sparse
Lagos
Abidjan
Africa Lomé
Cotonou
Nairobi
Kilimanjaro
Risk of desertification Seychelles
Kinshasa
Luanda Lake
More precipitation
Tanganyika
Less precipitation
Comoros
Coral bleaching
Mauritius
and affected major cities
Negative agricultural changes Réunion

Changes in ecosystems
Johannesburg
Increasing frequency or intensity of cyclones
Impact on mountain regions Sources: IPCC (2013, 2014) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),
Melting of glaciers

A multi-causal phenomenon
The environment is just one Case study: North-east of Ghana

factor of migration among others.
Yet, neglecting its role amounts Climate change dynamics at community level Climate shift in Ghana
to providing an incomplete Climate Change Extreme hot days
panorama of contemporary 1960 2003
migration.
The multi-causal nature of migration Flooding Health 36 84

largely explains why environmental Agriculture Working
Wet & Dry hours
migration remained absent from migra- seasons 365 days
tion policies and debates for many
decades. Traditional demographic, Agriculture
Wet season
Erosion
economic, social and political factors

have often been presented as being Migration
decisive, with environmental factors
Incomes
simply playing a secondary role by influ-
Chemical
encing the primary factors. fertilizers Bush fires
Countless migration studies have
focused on the role of conflict, polit- Water
Livestock infrastructure
ical instability, and the lack of economic, Crime &
educational and professional opportuni- Violence Deforestation
ties in countries of origin, or job oppor-

tunities, higher salaries and a more
democratic political environment in Interrelated Compounding Factors
destination countries. The existence of
regular migration channels, the availa-
bility of transport and intercultural ties
between countries also figure among the An aggravating factor allow populations to avail themselves of
most studied factors. Environmental factors include a number regular migration channels, responses
of highly diverse elements, which range will take the form of irregular and precar-
Invisibility due to a dearth of data from the geophysical to the climatic ious migration routes.
The long absence of climatic and envi- and meteorological, or even degrada-
ronmental factors from migration policy tion directly caused by human beings. Making environmental factors
debates is directly linked to the lack of This makes any generalization regarding visible in migration crises
data demonstrating that a climatic or the nature and extent of these factors as According to IDMC, between 2008 and
environmental factor has triggered an well as their interaction very difficult. It is 2012, out of the 36 countries that expe-
instance of migration, particularly in easier to identify a natural disaster as the rienced displacement linked to armed
countries and regions such as moun- principal cause of forced migration than conflict, 33 also suffered forced migra-
tainous regions, boreal areas, trop- the slow degradation of land, coastal tion due to natural disasters. The massive
ical forests or tundra regions that are erosion or soil salinization. displacement of more than 349,000
more greatly affected than others as Most commonly, a mesh of political, people from South Sudan due to
their economies and societies are more security and development issues can be flooding in 2011 cannot be dissociated
dependent on ecosystems. observed along with extremely complex from the complex crisis that is engulfing
The multi-causal nature of migra- relations between the different factors. the country due to armed conflict, food
tion is not solely a research issue and Similar environmental events can have insecurity, border disputes and the arrival
has a direct impact on legal and polit- opposite impacts depending on the of refugees from Sudan and the DRC. To
ical work to determine whether or not variable economic, social and polit- make latent structural factors such as
to create specific categories of visas or ical conditions. In the face of repeated those linked to the environment visible
protection, or even new international droughts, for example, certain commu- in this type of complex situation, popu-
conventions on migration that would nities will look more towards migratory lation movement in times of crisis has
be defined by environmental or climatic responses, whereas others will migrate to be situated within broader migratory
criteria. less. Finally, if migration policies do not dynamics of the affected region.

View of a north Ghana community
Bolgatanga Overflow release from

Bagré Dam after wet Bagré Dam
season heavy rains
Movements of
Yendi
Sudan Savanna nomadic peoples
Tamale
Bole Bimbilla
Guinea Savanna
Major Roads
Salaga
Rural–Urban
Migration
Sunyani
Movements of
Mampong nomadic peoples
Kumasi
Ho Increased tendencies
Obuasi to crime & violence
Koforidua
ACCRA
Winneba Tema
Cape Coast Marginal
non-cultivated lands
Sekondi-Takoradi
FULANI
FULANI CROPLAND VILLAGE (NOMADS)
(NOMADS)
Declining investments
& exchange
Contraction of area
suitable for wet &
dry season agriculture
West Africa
Migration to
Ghana urban centres Nomadic Smallholder
(Fulani) Farmers
Meningitis Belt
Sources: DARA and the Climate Vulnerable Forum (2012)
Credits: M.O. McKinnon (UNDP Geneva) and E. Tachie-Obeng (EPA-Ghana)
Layout and design: Zoï Environment Network © UNDP, 2015
The economic and social impacts of climate change in the north-east of Ghana
In the Sahel region in the very north of lack of means for reinvestment. Drought their cattle – which has a significant impact
Ghana, nomadic cattle breeders and seden- and extreme temperatures are moreover on the region’s social organization as the
tary agricultural communities have been responsible for soil erosion, a decrease nomads and villagers maintain a situation
living side by side for centuries. Yet, since in agricultural yields and a significant fall of mutual economic dependence through
the 1960s, the Sahel, and this region of in productivity, working hours and job shared management of the cattle. The
Ghana in particular, has been experiencing security. The negative effect of multiple decline in breeding deprives the nomadic
a dramatic temperature rise: the number of climatic factors on subsistence agriculture populations of their means of subsistence,
days of extreme heat has almost doubled leads to a drop in the revenues – which forcing them to engage in illegal activi-
over the past 50 years. are already low – of households, which ties, provoking violence, social instability
In the north-east of the country, essentially are thus faced with food insecurity and and environmental degradation. The set
an agricultural region, the impacts of this health problems, against the backdrop of of environmental and climatic risks thus
substantial increase in temperature are a lack of public funds. Furthermore, in the exacerbates existing economic and social
felt at the economic, social and healthcare far north, flooding caused by the release of difficulties, leading to conflict between the
levels. An increasingly long dry season water from the Bagré Dam following heavy nomadic and sedentary populations and to
reduces the length of agricultural activi- rainfall destroys crops and causes disease. increased recourse to migration towards
ties, which, outside of the rainy season, are During the periods of drought, farmers are urban areas.
restricted to irrigated zones – which are forced to leave the region to look for other Source: DARA and the
themselves increasingly rare due to the jobs in the south of the country, or to sell Climate Vulnerable Forum (2012)

Individual factors
An individual’s decision to and attachment; religion; and educa- Finally, when a natural disaster occurs
migrate is determined by a tion, as well as inclusion within social it is manifestly the principal cause that
number of personal factors, networks and access to information encourages an individual to migrate.
which are of an individual, and rights. On top of that come physical Yet, in other forms of migration, environ-
familial or community nature. In factors: not only health, but also access mental factors only serve to accelerate
particular, it directly depends on to transport and infrastructure enabling the individual’s decision by affecting
each person’s perception and the travel, bearing in mind that an individu- other factors such as employment,
interpretation of environmental al’s level of knowledge and information income or health.
risks. allow the environmental risks incurred
and the available options of mobility to The perception of risk as a factor of
Migration is above all a life story. Each be considered differently. migration
migrant embodies a personal trajectory Psychological aspects are key to under- A person’s perception of the degrada-
that is part of a shared destiny. standing what motivates migration on an tion of their environment and the envi-
Numerous aspects of personal life influ- individual level. The decision to migrate ronmental risks incurred are among the
ence each individual’s choice to migrate questions, for example, the level of most important elements in the decision
– or indeed their lack of choice. At house- attachment to the individual’s lands of to migrate. The survey on migration
hold level, a number of economic factors origin, but each individual will have a conducted by Gallup in 2010 among the
such as income and access to property different interpretation of the notion of global adult population had the distinct
and employment weigh on an individu- geographical remoteness; for certain advantage of formally integrating envi-
al’s ability to assume the financial cost people, the prospect of uprooting is ronmental factors into its question-
of migration. A large number of social, inconceivable even though their envi- naire. The results demonstrated a high
political and cultural determinants also ronment has become increasingly level of perception among those ques-
influence the decision to migrate, such hostile, whereas for others, migration is tioned: one person in five confirmed
as age; gender; the status within the perceived as one lifestyle opportunity having been affected by environmental
family; different roles, responsibilities, among others. issues over the course of the preceding
May need to move because of severe environmental problems in next five years, 2010
Gallup conducts annual

World Poll surveys in
countries that are home
to more than 98% of the
world’s population. This One survey question was
map is based on the 2010 map of the included in 2010, across
United Nations Geospatial Information 116 countries:
Section, which is the year when the « In the next five years,
survey was conducted, and does not do you think you will need
necessarily reflect current political to move because of severe
boundaries. environmental problems? »
Rather NO Rather YES
Source: Esipova et al. (2011)
Question not asked
© 2011 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.
0 5 10 20 25 39 (% of responses)

12 months and a total of 500 million together: the speed at which the indi- environmental problems must not be
adults were of the opinion that environ- vidual obtains information, their avail- confused with migratory intentions
mental problems would cause them to able resources and capital, their gender and even less so with mobility strate-
migrate within the next five years. and role within the family and society, gies that are actually implemented. The
and their age. visibility that migrants have obtained in
The discrepancy between migratory While the Gallup study shows, for the media and in collective imagination
desires and decisions example, that 12 per cent of the global often masks the fact that the majority
Regarding the management of natural adult population thinks that they will of people living in conflict zones or in
disasters, significant disparities can be have to migrate over the course of regions likely to be affected by disasters
noted between people when it comes the next five years due to environ- or whose natural environment is grad-
to making the decision to leave and the mental factors, that does not neces- ually deteriorating would often prefer
act of leaving. This decision depends sarily mean that all of these people to stay rather than abandon their land,
on a multitude of elements that blend will actually migrate. Perceptions of homes and property.
Environmental stress in the Mekong Delta, Viet Nam
Assets play a key role in household deci- using land as collateral when making invest- beyond their means – durable homes.
sion-making processes, shaping house- ments) and respond in times of crisis (for Human assets, such as knowledge and
hold strategies in response to environ- example, by selling portions of their land to skills, health and age, and psychological
mental stress. A recent study by Jane M. pay for healthcare costs). In contrast, those assets (such as adaptability and self-suffi-
Chun examined household vulnerability and who do not own land or homes are more ciency), also shape the capacity of house-
mobility outcomes (migration and reloca- susceptible to environmental shocks and holds to respond and adapt to environ-
tion) in contexts of environmental stress in stresses. Furthermore, they are less rooted mental stress. Finally, social assets, such as
two rural communes affected by seasonal to their places of residence, and show a social networks and support systems, are
flooding and riverbank erosion, and two higher level of motivation to participate in also important factors influencing the deci-
urban centres in southern Viet Nam. While government relocation programmes, which sion and ability to migrate.
close to half of rural respondent house- provide access to a critical asset normally Source: Chun (2014)
holds feel environmental stressors affect
their livelihoods ‘a lot’, only a few house-
holds consider environmental stress to be
a direct factor for migration. Hence, while
many refer to the seasonal nature of floods
and corresponding (lack of) livelihood
options as being a driver of migration, when
asked, the direct cause of migration was
identified by respondents as being predom-
inantly economic in nature (such as the lack
of jobs in rural areas and higher wages in
the cities), despite the influence of environ-
mental factors. Yet, environmental pressures
are more pronounced in the commune
experiencing riverbank erosion, given the
permanent loss of houses and land, and the
increasing number of households left land-
less. As such, government-planned reloca-
tion programmes are seen as an attractive

option for many households. In the flood-
prone commune, however, environmental
pressures are less significant, with mobility
decisions found to be influenced by a wider
range of factors.
The study further showed that the deci-
sion or ability to migrate in the context of
environmental stress are determined by
key household assets – financial, phys-
ical, human, social, political and natural
resources. For example, land and home
ownership play a crucial role in migration
decision-making processes: landowners
are more reluctant to leave their land
permanently, and owning land means they
are able to make strategic decisions to both
enhance their livelihoods (for example, by Vinh Tri, Viet Nam, 2014 © JANE CHUN 2014.

Population growth
Economic integration, globalization and interdependence, growth in regional and international trade
More industrial activities Stress on environment

Increase in
More transport environmental change
greenhouse
More consumption More climate and
gas emissions
More energy use ecosystem perturbation
Climatic factors
Sudden and
Slow or devastating
invisible climatic and
climatic environmental
processes events catching
less visible more media
attention co
Lac
El Niño oppo
Sea-level rise Droughts Storms
Coastal impacts
Soil salinization erosion Earthquakes Tidal
Water stress Floods surges Dic
Soil degradation Hurricanes Rapid change in
Ma
Permafrost Glacial meteoriological
melting Desertification processes
lake break
Disruption in agriculture Destruction of housing

and food production and infrastructures
People losing livelihoods
Unprepared or Strong or well prepared We

vulnerable population population ...
Permanent Permanent
migration migration
Long-term Long- term
forced forced
displacement displacement
Trapped
Ionesco, D., Mokhnacheva, D., & Gemenne, F. (2016). The atlas of environmental migration. ProQuest Ebook Central <a Trapped
population population

... which should be carefully
e considered during
the phases of ...
... level of ...

education
governance
Non-climatic factors prepardness of a community
to react and organize itself
prevention
Socio-economic, cultural and political
coordination between authorities,
communities and private sector
information access and sharing
Inequality Human right
violation Wealth
Violence concentration
... capacity to ...
Lack of job Absence of War
opportunities governance create and implement appropriate
Authoritarianism laws and policies
Discrimination implement appropriate urban
Impoverishment
Dictatorship and rural planning
Lack of
link local knowledge to decision
Man-made disaster empowerment
making process
Poor land Weak assess risks beforehand
management land rights implement early warning systems
Dramatic deterioration
of living conditions
... depending on ...

Weak and exposed Strong and resilient

population population ... will temporarilly migrate and come back
after a more or less long period ...
... will stay because they have the
capacity to adapt or mitigate
impacts of climate change ...
... will migrate permanently
to safer places ...

Challenges
and opportunities
S
hould environmental migration be encou- resources to make their migration a success. And for some
raged, or avoided at all costs? This kind of of them, leaving is not necessarily a solution of last resort, but
migration is inherent in the current ecolo- rather a personal adaptation strategy.
gical crisis. It is also one of the indicators How is it thus possible to ensure that environmental migration,
of the Anthropocene – the new geological as a whole, is no longer the result of a failure of adaptation or
age in which humans have become both a forced decision, but rather part of an adaptation strategy?
the main drivers of planetary transforma- Political choices that are made from today onwards concerning
tion and its primary victims. Like any struc- migration and adaptation policies will shape the answer to this
tural phenomenon, it comprises risks to avoid, opportunities to question, so much more so than the nature of environmental
seize and challenges to tackle. The role of public policies is to degradation.
support migration as best they possibly can, so that it can exert
its positive potential on migrants, and on communities of origin An adaptation strategy
and destination. Over the past few years, a certain degree of consensus has
formed around the idea that migration can be beneficial to
A humanitarian disaster? climate change adaptation. Many organizations and govern-
These population movements were long considered to be ments have begun to promote mobility as a solution, rather than
humanitarian disasters that must imperatively be avoided. The attempting to avoid it as a disaster.
goal of policies was to do everything possible to allow commu- This positive and dynamic vision nevertheless comprises a
nities to remain on their land. Migrants were generally viewed certain number of risks, starting with forgetting that for a large
as being defenceless, both the primary witnesses and primary number of migrants, leaving is not a voluntary choice but a
victims of the environmental crisis – and of climate change in forced one. It must also not neglect the risks for communities
particular. Like a canary in a coal mine they were supposed to of origin and destination. For the former, the emigration of the
alert the world to the risks to which global warming exposed youngest, richest and best educated members of their popu-
vulnerable populations, and to sound the call for general lation can lead to significant impoverishment and a sense of
mobilization. abandonment, which will only increase environmental vulnera-
Such a vision, however, does not stand up to the test of reality. bility; the authorities can also sometimes become disinterested
Migration is indeed often a forced, or even brutal, decision in a deserted region, which will become even more marginal-
when a disaster leaves no other alternative or where adapta- ized as a result. For the latter, migration can also be a source
tion efforts in the face of environmental degradation have not of vulnerability, through the additional pressure that migrants
proved successful. These particular migrants are very much exert on increasingly scarce natural resources, such as land and
victims of the degradation of their environment that is often water. The aid provided by certain NGOs or international organ-
imposed on them by others. Yet, a large number of migrants, izations can also serve to destabilize local markets or create
far from the image of expiatory victims, deploy exceptional tensions with the local population.
Ionesco, Dina, Mokhnacheva, Daria, and Gemenne, François. The Atlas of Environmental Migration. London: Taylor & Francis Group, 2016. Accessed October 29, 2020. ProQuest Ebook Central.
70 The
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13:41:38.

When envisaging migration as an adaptation strategy, it is foremost from the perspective of the human and individual secu-
thus important to clearly define the beneficiaries. Are they rity of the people who are most vulnerable to climate change.
migrants themselves, communities of origin, or communities
of destination? Reducing the vulnerability of some can in some Understanding the issues at stake
cases increase the vulnerability of others and run the risk of Broadly depoliticized hitherto, environmental migration must
maladaptation. carve a niche in debates to ensure that the challenges and
opportunities that it presents are duly studied and that migrants
A security issue feature at the heart of adaptation and security policies, as both
Since the joint award of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize to Al Gore victims and agents. Part 3 first addresses the issues related
and the IPCC, climate change has established itself on the polit- to adaptation. Adaptation has established itself over the past
ical and media agenda as a major risk to global security and decade as a major means of action to address climate change,
stability. The nature of this risk remains, however, fundamen- complementing the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
tally misunderstood, and numerous reports and declarations The term designates the processes and strategies that aim to
portray environmental migration as the principal vector of inse- reduce the vulnerability of natural and social systems faced
curity, and as such, a major threat. The reasoning is so simple with the impacts of climate change. While migration is today
that it gains immediate support: migrants, driven out en masse broadly recognized as an adaptation strategy, notably thanks to
by the degradation of their environment, appropriate the land the work of researchers and to advocacy on the part of interna-
and resources of other communities, thereby creating tensions tional organizations, it is still not always easy to determine whom
and conflict. While the security risks associated with migration exactly it benefits, nor how to best optimize its effects.
must not be neglected or underestimated, they are in reality far The security issues related to migration are subsequently
from being a systematic driver of conflict. analysed. These issues do not solely refer to natural resource
Moreover, everything is a matter of perspective: while migration conflicts, but also to human rights, urbanization, the manage-
can be perceived as a risk for destination communities, it consti- ment of camps, and the localization of populations living in at-risk
tutes an improvement from the point of view of migrants who zones, whose number is constantly increasing. Finally, Part 3
are above all seeking to improve their personal security, either examines migrants as individuals, exploring the issues relating
by moving to a safer place, or by pursuing economic opportuni- to their integration in destination communities as well as the
ties that will enable them to increase or diversify their revenues. personal, psychological and gender-specific dimensions of the
If environmental migration is also a security issue, it is so first and act of migrating.
Created from fiu on 2020-10-29 13:41:38. The Atlas of Environmental Migration 71

Disruption of traditional
migration strategies
Climate change is challenging the climate change, devastating human- themselves in situations of ‘forced
ancestral way of life of certain made activity is contributing to soil displacement’. This situation is para-
nomadic communities, by degradation and the increasing scar- doxical as for nomads it manifests itself
destroying the natural resources city of natural resources. In Kenya, for through non-movement: the end of tradi-
that are necessary to their example, the uncontrolled exploitation tional mobility and economic and social
mobility strategy, and poses new of resources, in a region that is already marginalization sometimes followed by
adaptation challenges. blighted by drought, natural disasters an exodus towards urban areas. This situ-
and weak governance, is contributing to ation presents a number of challenges, in
For certain communities, migration is a the break-up of the traditional way of life terms of both access to food, water and
way of life that is closely related to the of nomadic groups that live in the north healthcare, and of the necessary meas-
environment and not a negative conse- of the country and the neighbouring ures to take to ensure these populations’
quence of their environment’s degra- regions. This increases the marginaliza- access to education and employment,
dation. However, the challenges posed tion of these groups, multiplies sources along with local development and urban
by climate change concerning natural of conflict and leads to further degrada- planning pertaining to their settlement.
resources and land are disrupting these tion of the environment. In Kenya, an influx of refugees from
ancestral strategies. In the Sahel, for neighbouring countries mired in conflict
instance, the alteration of traditional rainy A migration issue has been added to the ongoing disrup-
seasons, repeated flooding and periods Environmental changes pose new tion of traditional migration. The refugees
of intense drought are affecting the tradi- challenges for pastoralist nomadic are placing great strain on host commu-
tional movements of nomadic livestock peoples, forcing certain groups to deviate nities, which are themselves already
breeders and communities. In Mongolia, from their traditional routes, and even victims of environmental stress, a situa-
exceedingly dry summers followed by to sometimes cross borders unawares, tion which in turn is a source of conflict.
extremely harsh winters have decimated thereby engaging in irregular migration. Special programmes have been put in
herds and forced breeders to settle in The inability to pursue their traditional place, combining environmental action
cities in order to find new means of way of life as a result of climate change aiming to alleviate the effects of climate
subsistence, leading to the proliferation also leads to cultural, social, economic change with migration policy action
of poor informal urban zones, particu- and political changes for many of these helping traditional mobility to subsist, but
larly around the capital. In addition to communities, which subsequently find this kind of initiative remains all too rare.
Pastoralist displacement
Insecurity Prolif
s, erat
ic io n
i dem Confl of s
ep ict s ma
an ds , Ca ll a
m floo t tl e rm
Hu la s
h
F rai
ds
s,
Climate Displacement Political

Pastoralist Pastoralist
change population IDPs processes
Dro
,
ng
An
ug
b
bi
i ra
nv mal
ids
ht
d g le
,E
ep
ra
iro La n
nm ide
mic on, att
ent
al d
s,
nta risati a nd, C
egra Sede zing
l
dation Livestock and land to gra
Access
(per household)
Source: Schrepfer and Caterina (2014) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015
72
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13:41:38.

Challenges and opportunities
Kenya: climate change and pastoral migration
Jima
Shashemene
Awasa
E T H I O P I A
S O U T H S U D A N
Juba Lake
Stefanie
Yei
BORANA Moyale Mandera
TURKANA Lake
Turkana MANDERA Baydhabo
Arua
Gulu MARSABIT SOMALI Jawhar
Lira
WAJIR S O M A L I A
Marsabit
Mogadishu
WEST Wajir
U G A N D A POKOT Pokot Lak
Mbale SAMBURU B or
Kitale
Kampala
K E N Y A
Samburu Indian
Dadaab Jamaame
Isiolo Ocean
Entebbe
Garissa Kismaayo
Lake
Tan
Victoria
a
Bukoba Drought impacts on livestock

Nairobi Machakos Ijara 1990–2010 (% of livestock lost)
Musoma
Tana River 0 50
a
1990
ric
Af
Nort
r hern Kenya
rt
h
Mwanza
ut
Ethiopia (Borana Plat

a eau)
at
So
to
Moshi
1995
Great
a er Horn of Africa
at
Shinyanga Arusha
Southern Ethiopia
200 km
TA N Z A N I A Mombasa Ethiopia (Borana Plat
a eau)
at
2000
Migrations Kenya
Arid region with food security Ethiopia (Afar and Somali)
emergency mainly attacked
TURKANA Tanga Kenya
by the Karamojong from Uganda
Kenya (Mandera and Marsabit) 2005
Kenya
WEST Semi-arid region, mainly attacked
Other elements
POKOT by the Turkanas for natural ressources
Zanzibar
Weapon proliferation
Cross-border migration Somalia
2010
Pastoral conflict
Internal migration (pastoralists...)
National border
Refugee camp 0
County border 50
Climatic areas
Nairobi Capitals 200
Food secure area
Dry and very dry
500 Population density
Water Towers
W Ijara Markets
Sub-humid dry, wetlands and 9,000 (persons per sq.km)
wetland subhumid River Moyale Other cities
Sources: CIESIN and CIAT (2005), Ginnetti and Franck (2014), Kasimbu (2010), UNEP (2009, 2010) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015

Circular migration
More and more frequently, those districts affected by environ- regular and circular workforce migration
circular migration from zones mental degradation are also those that policies. In 2007, New Zealand launched
exposed to environmental risks experience the greatest level of circular the Recognized Seasonal Employers
or natural disasters constitutes an migration, particularly to Russia, natural (RSE) Programme, which offers jobs to
adaptation strategy in itself. disasters can also lead to extreme compensate for the shortage of seasonal
Public policies can assist it in household impoverishment making labour in the country’s horticulture and
order to support regions that funding migration abroad impossible; viticulture industries via temporary
have suffered damage and these households thus opt for internal migration agreements with seven Pacific
degradation and to help migrants. migration or stay put in highly precarious countries: Kiribati, Samoa, the Salomon
situations. These forms of mobility pose Islands, Tonga, Papua New Guinea,
Circular migration refers to internal challenges as much for those who stay, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. RSE allows up to
seasonal migration, periodic migra- who must bear the burden of the house- 9,000 people to temporarily migrate
tion between rural areas or from rural hold and the land, as for those who leave, to New Zealand every year. In a 2012
areas to urban zones and vice versa, and with migrant workers often victims of report, the ADB recommended using
behind which environment is logically marginalization and exploitation. regular migration channels to meet the
one of the principal factors, for instance demand for work in Asian countries and
in regions marked by alternate rainy and Public policies to facilitate circular to facilitate adaptation to climate change.
dry seasons. This type of migration also migration The European Commission announced
includes people who work abroad during Public policies that oversee and facil- in 2013 that it would examine the poten-
a given period, or international circular itate labour migration respond above tial targeting of regions prone to envi-
labour migration, which is organized all to needs in terms of the workforce ronmental and climate risks for labour
through international agreements and in destination countries. They are often migration initiatives. Mobility-facilitating
is increasingly subject to political and the fruit of long-standing political rela- policies like these are also growing due
legal oversight. The most recent example tionships and processes. However, a to the fact that political decision makers
of relevant legislation is the Convention degree of awareness can be noted, in are becoming increasingly aware that in
Concerning Decent Work for Domestic both countries of origin and destina- the absence of legal channels, irregular
Workers, which entered into force in tion, of the possibility of creating links international migration is the only avail-
2013. between environmental themes and able solution.
Circular mobility as a challenge and

an opportunity
Very few countries, however, connect
environmental degradation and the
circular migration to which it leads, A joint pilot project between Colombia and Spain: ‘Temporary and
despite the fact that this kind of response Circular Labour Migration’
can help to reduce the pressure on
natural resources in fragile areas and to Numerous regions of Colombia are subject more than 3,000 small farmers, indigenous
diversify means of subsistence. to severe environmental risks, exacerbated people and workers from different regions
by a high poverty rate, conflicts, and crime. of the country resorted to this type of
Tajikistan provides an insightful example
The ‘Temporary and Circular Labour Migra- migration in a spirit of cooperation, devel-
of an acceleration of circular migration tion’ (TCLM) programme, implemented opment and adaptation to environmental
strategies in the face of environmental between Colombia and Spain with the Unio challenges. The migrants and their fami-
degradation. Male circular labour migra- de Pagesos de Cataluña and the support lies contributed to the restoration of zones
of IOM, is an innovative example of tempo- affected by environmental change, notably
tion has been a standard response to
rary and circular labour migration for popu- thanks to remittances, supported by private
drought, water scarcity, a shortage of lations from ecologically degraded areas. co-financing and international cooperation.
agricultural land, and abnormal fluc- It also serves as an example of coopera- They also gleaned new knowledge and
tuations of precipitation and temper- tion between public, private and non-gov- techniques, from which the communities of
ature in the country, with this option ernmental actors at the national, regional degraded areas have been able to benefit.
and local level. Over a three-year period, Source: IOM (2009)
sometimes even constituting a stable
share of household economies. While
74 The
13:41:38.

Different outcomes of migration as an adaptation strategy in Thailand and India
T H A IL AN D I N DI A
Delhi
Lamphun Province Janjgir District,
Bangkok
Chhattisgarh State
MACRO
• Low poverty and food insecurity • Medium–high level poverty and food insecurity
• More advanced stage of economic and • High malnutrition levels
demographic transition (success in poverty • More advanced stage of economic and demographic
reduction over recent decades) transition (population growth)
SITE
• Average annual rainfall: 1,017mm • Average annual rainfall: 1,229mm
• Geography: upland and riverine • Geography: irrigated lowland
• Seasonal agricultural production • Highly dependent on agriculture
• Severe flood events : 87% of households said heavy rainfall • No decline in average annual rainfall but significant drop in the
occurred more frequently in the past 10–20 years number of rainy days
• Population engaged in subsistence agriculture (cash crops, weaving, • Not enough water for second crop season
remittances, small business/trade, government safety net • High level of unemployment during dry season
programmes) • Increased frequency of droughts and dry spells over the past
• Different strategies available 10–20 years
to deal with negative HOUSEHOLD • Few alternative livelihood
environmental impacts (on and 206 households interviewed 180 households interviewed options available
off farm income generation With migration experience 67% With migration experience 42%
activities, access to financial
Migration is seasonal 66% Migration is seasonal 66% Key challenges
resources through community
funds, assistance from local Seeking alternatives Seeking alternatives Delayed monsoon/seasons,
to environmental stress 76% to environmental stress 88%
government) single annual harvest, recurrent
Moving for education 18% Moving for education 2% crop diseases, input-intensive
Key challenges Landless or suffering Landless or suffering unsustainable agriculture
47% 60.5%
from land scarcity from land scarcity
Rainfall-related stress, (2.4% landless) (2.4% landless)
dry spells, heavy rainfalls,
Seeking livelihood Seeking livelihood
flash floods 76% 87.7%
diversification diversification
Migrants’ profiles Migrants’ profiles

Gender (%) Marital Status (%) Motivation of Migration (%) Gender (%) Marital Status (%) Motivation of Migration (%)
7 6 10
Need to 11 19 Need to
18 earn 38 2 earn
39
43 50 Married livelihood Married livelihood
61 76 62
Male Single Education Male 62 Single 88 Education
Female Other Other Female Other Other
Average age of migrants 23.18 Average years of schooling 8.48 Average age of migrants 21.1 Average years of schooling 6.1
MIGRATION OUTCOMES MIGRATION OUTCOMES

Migration is used to access even better Migration leads to disruption of the education of children and
opportunities, improve skills and access education reduces the overall access to school education = long-term
= long-term positive impacts. negative impacts for incomes and social mobility of the
concerned households.
Successful, resilience-building migration
Erosive coping strategy, aggravating vulnerability
Source: Warner et al. (2012) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015
Circular migration, a successful or erosive coping strategy?
The comparative studies carried out in vary according to the social, economic Conversely, as a strategy of last resort
the framework of the “Where the Rain and financial capital of the households. for the most vulnerable households that
Falls” project in eight different countries, Temporary migration increases the resil- do not have access to support from the
demonstrate that circular migration is ience of households that already have a appropriate mechanisms, it has long-term
an established response for households high level of social capital and that have negative effects for the households, as in
faced with the impacts of climate change. access to external support from special- India for instance.
However, these strategies and their effects ized institutions – such as in Thailand. Source: Warner et al. (2012)

Development, adaptation and risk
management
Diasporas’ positive contributions However, their contributions, in the form Remittances in Samoa after the
to development in their countries of funding, investment and expertise, 2009 tsunami
of origin and destination are could be decisive on several levels: in the Remittances and official development
today recognized at the political organization and funding of local projects assistance received in Samoa, 2002–2012
level and have been widely in their regions of origin; in providing Million dollars
200
demonstrated by research. assistance to victims of disasters and
However, their potential should funding the reconstruction of damaged
be better taken into account in infrastructure; in combating desertifica- 150
climate change adaptation and tion, which is an essential step towards Recorded
remittances
disaster risk management reducing vulnerability and poverty and
100
strategies. thus towards reducing negative migra- Official
tory pressure; and in land rehabilitation, Development
Aid
Remittances are private financial contri- reforestation or in altering agricultural (ODA) 50
butions made by migrants to their rela- practices. A recent example of the recog-
tives and their communities back home, nition of the potential role of migrants and
0
which constitute a recognized form of diasporas is the creation in 2014 of an 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
participation in the development of their innovative partnership between IOM and
countries of origin. Yet, transfers between the UN Convention to Combat Deserti-
countries of origin and destination, and fication whose aim is to link sustainable Remittances compared to NGOs’ aid and
government assistance in Salani village
more specifically between local commu- land management and the mobilization
following the 2009 tsunami
nities of origin and destination, are not of diasporas’ resources and skills.
Scoring from 0 to 10
only of a financial nature; they can take 10
on multiple forms including transfers
of skills, knowledge, technologies and Samoa: remittances acting as a
8
investments. safety net for reconstruction 6

Programmes such as ‘Return of Qual-
ified Nationals’ (UNDP), or ‘Migration Samoa, in the South Pacific, is extremely 4
for Development in Africa’ (IOM) have vulnerable to natural disasters. The

sparked the creation of models for trans- country is also the sixth largest receiver 2
of funds transfers in the world, as a

fers of expertise between diasporas and percentage of its GDP. A study focusing J F M A M J J A S O N S
0
their countries of origin, which have on the five coastal communities affected Remittances NGOs’ aid Government
assistance
helped to highlight the value of the initi- by the 2009 tsunami, which also suffered
atives of individuals seeking to support cyclone Evan in 2012, indicates that funds
transfers increased when governmental Use of remittances before and after the
development efforts in their native coun- 2009 tsunami
aid was low and decreased when external %
tries. While diasporas have by no means aid was substantial, acting like a veritable Gambling
Transport 100
waited for the establishment of such safety net. Following the two disasters, the Business investment
Clothing
programmes to invest in their countries transfer of funds for the reconstruction of
Healthcare
housing, support for agricultural produc-
of origin, political authorities have a major Agriculture 80
tion and for community action helped to
role to play in creating favourable condi- regenerate the local and national fabric. Bills
tions for migrant investment, while simul- Migrants can thus increase the capacity
School fees 60
taneously putting migrants’ freedom and of households to recover following a
interests at the heart of their develop- disaster, but in the process can weaken Building/
rebuilding house
their own situation by drawing from their
ment measures. savings. The Samoan example nonethe-
40
Food
less demonstrates that governments and
Linking migration, adaptation and organizations tasked with disaster risk Church 20
disaster risk management management would be well advised to
ensure the involvement of migrants and
It is taking a fair amount of time for Fa’alavelave
the beneficiaries of funds transfers in (major cultural events)
people to realize the potential role of both the conception and the implementa- Before After
0
migrants and diasporas in adaptation tion of interventions in the wake of natural Provided by L. Le De and J.-C. Gaillard.
projects focusing on the effects of climate disasters. © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015
Source: Le De et al. (2015)
change and risk management, and polit-
ical interest in such a role is still limited.
76 The
13:41:38.

Environment, migration and remittances in Senegal
Se
Podor ne
g
pe Agriculture Richard-Toll
al
Kaédi
To Euro
M A U R I TA N I A
ns
Saint-Louis
io
ct
re
di
Ferlo
To
l Matam
h
Ndiébène Gandiole b
ot
N
in
or t
Louga 8% n Ouro Sogui

Linguère io
at
hA
igr
me
LOUGA M Fer
lo
rica
Niakhène l
Dakar Diourbel 16%
32% Tivaouane
Thiès Touba Mb Bakel
DAKAR D IOURBEL oun
e
Diourbel Nduolo
Dakar Rufisque
Saly-Portudal Niakhar S E N E G A L Nayé
M'Bour Ndiéné Lagane um Kayes
Salo
Joal-Fadiouth go
ou
Kaolack d
o
M A L I
n
iK
Sa
Palmarin K AOLACK Terres neuves er Manantali Dam
Ni
Fale
To other African
Tambacounda
me
bia
Banjul Gam
G A M B I A
To
E ur
pe grou Madina Gunas Sabodala

grou
o
countri
Ko
n
Sou Kolda Gold mining
Casamance ulou Gam
Bignona ntou bia
es
conflict
Kédougou
Casamance
Ziguinchor
G U I N E A - B I S S A U G U I N E A
100 km
Migration trends Environmental phenomena Soil erosion and other forms of

environmental degradation
DAKAR Regions with positive net migration Land degradation
Hydro-erosion of soil
LOUGA Regions of major migration outflows Loss of agricultural land
Aeolian erosion of soil
International migration flows Sea-level rise concerns and coastal erosion
Chemical degradation of soil
Internal migration flows Salinization
Degradation of water resources
Areas attracting migrants
Other elements Biological degradation
Migration to urban centres
Nduolo
UNESCO case studies (red labels) Mixed degradation
Estimates of Senegalese migrants’ remittances
Conflict or unrest No data

Top remittance-receiving regions
(labelled in percent)
National border
Other important remittance-receiving areas
Remittances received by the region Border of the regions
Louga 8%
as share of total remittances to Senegal
Sources: ANSD (2013), BCEAO (2011), FAO (n.d.), IOM (2009), Touré Thiam and Crowley (2014), USDA (n.d.), with contributions of J.-L. Couture.
© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Zoï Environment Network, 2014.
The case of Senegal illustrates the Moreover, significant discrepancies are zones, and convey a different image of
complexity of the challenges and opportu- visible at the regional level regarding migrants, namely as essential actors in
nities linking the management of territories, receipt of remittances. That is why public international cooperation. Senegal, Niger
migration and adaptation. While numerous policies that support, balance out and maxi- and Burkina Faso are the three pilot coun-
regions of the country subject to land mize the impact of funds transfers, and that tries for a project, developed by the UNCCD
degradation are zones of out-migration, identify priority adaptation and sustain- Global Mechanism and IOM and supported
mostly to urban areas, other regions with able land-management projects could have by the Italian Foreign Ministry’s Italian
already limited water resources, subject to multiple effects by helping simultaneously Development Cooperation, which seeks to
erosion and industrial degradation, remain to combat the effects of climate change, link migrant contributions and sustainable
poles of attraction for internal migrants. minimize migratory pressure in high-risk land-management projects.

Demographic pressure
in at-risk areas
Contrary to the common such as the Rockefeller Foundation’s on natural resources and notably land
preconception, migration towards ‘100 Resilient Cities’ encourage local on which researchers are focusing.
risk zones remains greater than authorities to do just that and offer Migration, depending on its scale, can
migration away from these areas. support for the process. indeed increase the environmental
In other words, the number of vulnerability of destination areas.
people exposed to environmental The environmental impact of While this risk is real, it should not be
risks is only getting bigger. migration overestimated, as is frequently the case
Environmental risk can also be induced by in debates on the links between climate
Without necessarily thinking about it migration itself. Initial interest in the links change and migration, which focus on
every second, the inhabitants of San between migration and the environment the pressure on resources caused by
Francisco or the slopes of Mount Etna was first of all expressed through migration as a source of conflict. We
are conscious of the fact that they could this specific prism. In 1996, UNHCR should beware of such deterministic
one day be victims of a major disaster. published environmental guidelines in reasoning: the distribution of natural
But the reasons that compel them to stay order notably to minimize the degradation resources is much more dependent on
put are generally stronger than the fear linked to the establishment of refugee the redistributive policies put in place
of a disaster. camps. In 2014, they were followed by than on the amount of resources in
Conversely, there are many other risk new directives concerning the closure of absolute terms. Migration can often even
zones whose inhabitants do not realize camps, established by the working group help to ease the pressure on resources
that they are exposed to climate risks. In of the Inter-Agency Standing Committee and fragile ecosystems, through positive
Asia especially, the growing economic for camp coordination and management. impact on the environment of regions of
boom of cities and coastal regions Today, it is above all the issue of pressure departure.
continues to attract migrants to these
areas. In Bangladesh, rural populations
are fleeing the effects of disasters and Living beneath an active volcano:
environmental degradation, which has population growth and disaster risk in Goma
the paradoxical effect of increasing the
In January 2002, the city of Goma in the volcano. Areas covered by the 2002 lava
level of risk that they face in cities. In Democratic Republic of the Congo was flow were parcelled and sold for construc-
Asia and Africa, the number of people partly destroyed by lava flows from the tion of houses. By 2014, the entire surface
living on flood plains is projected to rise eruption of the Nyiragongo volcano. More of the lava flow had been sold. The city
than 200 people died, and hundreds of and its population now face much greater
from 114 million in 2000 to 192 million
thousands were displaced. Yet, the city risks than prior to the 2002 eruption, as
in 2060. continued to grow and to attract thou- the growing population in areas exposed
sands of people fleeing poverty and to a future eruption, mostly consisting of
Governmental responsibility conflict in the region. The size of the popu- newcomers who did not experience the
Governments bear the responsibility lation nearly tripled between 2002 and 2002 disaster, is unaware of the risks and
2014, reaching 1.1 million people, and the not prepared to respond to a new eruption.
of the geographical organization of city expanded dangerously towards the Source: IOM (2014)
the economy. If they encourage the
development of the safest regions, then

migratory movements will naturally
be reoriented towards these areas of
activity. Such policies could also have a
preventive effect: they would circumvent
the need to plan for the resettlement
of inhabitants, or even prevent
humanitarian crises from occurring.
In rapidly growing cities, it is crucial to
adopt sustainable urban planning that
strengthens infrastructure and services
for the section of the population that Houses built on the 2002
is most vulnerable to environmental lava flow on the periphery
of Goma city. Democratic
changes. Yet, few governments have Republic of the Congo,
reassessed the spatial organization of 2013. © DARIO TEDESCO 2013
their cities or their economy. Initiatives
78 The
13:41:38.

88°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 92°0'0"E
Net population migration rate and rank INDIA
26°0'0"N
26°0'0"N
INDIA
in Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta by district

(as a % of the population)
24°0'0"N
24°0'0"N
INDIA
22°0'0"N
22°0'0"N
BANGLADESH
Shariatpur Chandpur 88°0'0"E 90°0'0"E 92°0'0"E
-8.19
-9.14
Male -9.65
Jessore Narail Male -10.34 Female -6.82
-4.78 -9.4 Gopalganj Female -7.96
Male -10.33 -10.83
Male -6.38 Female -8.49
Female -3.11 Male -11.43
Female -10.23 Lakshmipur
Barisal
-10.24 -6.34
Male -11.74 Male -8.03
Female -8.74 Female -4.71
Satkhira Bagerhat Noakhali
-
-6.39 -10.82 Jhalokati -5.18
Male -7.49 Male -11.87 -10.94 Male -6.25
Female -5.28 Khulna Female -9.72 Male -11.53 Female -4.16
-10.02 Female -10.37
Male -11.28 Pirojpur
Female -8.68 -9.95 Patuakhali
-9.44 Bhola
Male -10.6
Female -9.31 Male -10.48 -11.22
Female -8.42 Male -12.66
Barguna
INDIA -8.03
Female -9.74
Male -9.8
Female -6.24
0 20 40 km
Net Population Migration Rank

From -4 % to -7 %
B A Y O F B E N G A L From -7 % to -10 %
From -10 % to -12 %
Sources: National Water Resources Database (NWRD) – CEGIS Archive, BBS (2012a, 2012b), and Bangladesh census data
from 2011 and 2001 provided by BBS. Adapted from map produced by Dilruba Begum and Mir Fahim Shaunak (CEGIS) based
on migration estimates calculated by Nabiul Islam and Mohammad Nazrul Islam (BIDS)
Out-migration: a solution with mixed results

Migration can be an effective, and some- and storms. The study, which produced the resources. Yet, out-migration can be associ-
times sole, strategy to reduce exposure map above, was conducted as part of the ated with numerous challenges and greater
of populations to hazards. Migration out ‘Deltas, Vulnerability and Climate Change vulnerability, for example if people move
of hazard-prone areas can help reduce 2012: Migration and Adaptation’ (DECCMA) to areas exposed to even greater hazards,
the vulnerability of households to disas- project under the ‘Collaborative Adapta- poverty or insecurity, such as crowded
ters, and reduce the demographic pressure tion Research Initiative in Africa and Asia’ urban centres as in the case of Bangla-
on fragile ecosystems, thus helping to limit (CARIAA) programme. Even if these migra- desh, and add pressure on local resources.
ecological degradation and the risk of disas- tion flows are not necessarily motivated by Out-migration can also have a negative
ters. This strategy can, however, be associ- environmental change per se, they can have economic and social impact on those who
ated with negative outcomes. A study on a positive impact on households’ resilience are left behind, and perpetuate or increase
the impacts of climate change and migra- and the local environment. For those who inequality and vulnerability, as the option to
tion as adaptation in large deltas iden- leave, migration can help reduce physical migrate is not available to all. In Bangladesh,
tified migration trends in the Ganges– exposure and improve livelihoods. For those migration rates are much higher among
Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta, and brought who stay, migration of relatives may open men than women, which may imply differ-
to light relatively high out-migration rates access to new sources of income through ential vulnerability and unequal adaptation
from coastal districts in Bangladesh which remittances, and the departure of neigh- capacity of men and women.
are at risk of flooding, erosion, salinization bours may mean less pressure on common Sources: Lazar et al. (2015), Warner et al. (2012)

Urbanization
Migration to cities offers many Urbanization and floods in the Chalco Valley
opportunities for individuals, but
rapid urbanization is often A study conducted by Fernando the settlements was very poor, and they
associated with increased risk Aragón-Durand in the Chalco Valley were regularly exposed to flooding. In the
and vulnerability. near Mexico City illustrates the way in late 1980s, the government legalized the
which a combination of demographic settlements and launched a social soli-
and economic change, poor environ- darity programme, PRONASOL, to provide
Urbanization trends mental planning and short-term policies improved services to low-income families
Urban population has grown rapidly can increase risk and vulnerability over living in the valley. Yet, the programme
since the 1950s, from 746 million people time. The desiccation of Lake Chalco for was implemented with mixed results,
agricultural purposes, in part to meet and partly contributed to increasing the
living in cities in 1950, to 3.9 billion
the increasing demand for food in the risk of floods as the river La Compañía
in 2014; today, more than half of the growing city of Mexico in the nineteenth was turned into an open sewage canal. In
world’s population lives in urban centres. century, led to the build-up of settlements 2000, heavy rainfall caused the rupture of
The world’s largest cities are concen- in an originally flood-prone area. Late the canal, resulting in the flooding of 80
trated in the global South, and the pace nineteenth and early twentieth century hectares of urbanized land and affecting
economic policies, demographic changes 6,700 households. Most of these low-in-
of urbanization is particularly fast in low- and the Mexican Revolution led to a mass come households were unable to cope
and middle-income countries. rural exodus towards Mexico City. As the with the disaster, and many decided to
Rural–urban or urban–urban migration city’s population grew, the agglomeration resettle elsewhere. As more and more
accounts for the majority of population expanded, stretching to the Chalco Valley. settlements are built precariously in high-
In the 1970s, illegal land promoters started risk zones, the case of the Chalco Valley
movements across the world, and is an
buying up former agricultural land plots in points to the problems such areas may face
essential driver of urban growth: people the valley for housing development. These unless comprehensive urban development
are attracted to capitals and megacities, new settlements were in areas unsuit- planning, disaster risk reduction and migra-
but many also move to peri-urban areas able for living, and lacked infrastructure tion management policies are put in place.
and basic services. The quality of life in Source: Aragón-Durand (2011)
and smaller cities.
Cities and opportunities weather patterns, and who are looking to prevent and cope with these threats.
The hope for a better quality of life for higher incomes and more stable Poor urban governance and planning
usually associated with cities attracts jobs. Others are displaced by disasters, potentially puts all inhabitants at risk,
many people living in rural areas, conflict and violence, and settle in cities. and cities will continue to face increasing
including those whose livelihoods Urban centres often offer more security pressure as their population grows, and
are affected by changing climate and and access to the benefits of basic rights as they have to adapt to climate change.
and services, including healthcare and Migrants from lower income groups are
COACALCO
ECATEPEC education. often extremely vulnerable as they tend
to settle in poorly serviced, hazard-prone
Migration to cities and vulnerability informal settlements on the periphery
TEXCOCO Yet, unplanned, rapid urbanization of cities. These areas, mostly unsuitable
increases local vulnerability, as popu- for settlement, lack services and infra-
MEXICO
Limit of
CITY the ancient
lation growth puts additional pressure structure, making their inhabitants even
HUIXQUILUCÁ
HUIXQUILUC ÁN
lakes on the environment, infrastructure and more vulnerable to potential hazards
essential services, such as water, sanita- and less able to prepare for, cope with
VALLE
DE CHALCO tion and food provision. Many cities face and recover from disasters. Crime and
TLALPAN
environmental risks such as flooding, violence; limited access to regulated
+
Location
XOCHIMILCO of the accident storms, earthquakes, water stress or housing; discrimination; language, infor-
20 km
sea-level rise; and few are equipped mation and cultural barriers; absence
1400 1500 1600

Founding of Tenochtitlan
1325 Rule of the Aztec Empire: Spanish Conquest and Rule: Disruption of pre-hispanic
use of sustainable farming systems (chinampas) ecosystem management and rapid urbanization
14th–16th centuries 1519–1820
Chronology of Chalco Valley urbanization and flood risk, 1325–2010
80
13:41:38.

Miami
La Havane
Mexico
Bogota
mostly to cities, which attract seasonal,

temporary and permanent migrants in
search of employment or education, or
fleeing conflict, disasters (particularly in
Peru and Colombia), as well as poverty
and land degradation (for example in
Urbanization of
Lima north-east Brazil). Large coastal cities
Latin America,
1965–2015 Sao Paulo
are exposed to sea-level rise, while many
urban centres in the Andes region face
Urban population growth water scarcity, as glaciers retreat and
between 1965 and 2015 temperatures rise, and urban population
0
436 and demand for water grows.
2,222 Changes in rainfall patterns and increased
15,372
1,723,788 frequency of weather and climate-re-
Buenos
Aires lated hazards such as floods and storms
Population in 2015
21,000
regularly affect large cities and particu-
10,000
7,000
larly vulnerable, often poorer, popula-
470
tions living in flood-prone areas in river
Population density in 2000 basins and low-lying deltas. Some cities
Low Severe like Quito and Santiago are exposed to
multiple hazards, such as earthquakes,
landslides or volcanic eruptions. A
Source: UNDESA (2014) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), growing population – largely migrant –
in informal settlements in areas exposed
to flooding or landslides is a major risk
of social protection and of support The case of Latin America factor, which needs to be addressed
networks are other examples of chal- Latin America and the Caribbean is the through adequate measures to reduce
lenges that migrants may face in cities. most urbanized region, with 80 per cent vulnerability and improve the resilience
In order to adjust to a changing world and of its population living in large cities. The of the populations concerned. Some
respond to risk, cities will have to antic- region is home to four megacities of more cities and governments in South America
ipate and prepare for demographic and than 10 million people (Mexico City, São are starting to implement disaster risk
environmental change, and recognize Paulo, Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro), reduction programmes, which will need
the important economic, cultural and and several cities of more than 5 million to take social and demographic chal-
social contributions that migrants make. people. Migration flows in the region are lenges into account.
Lake Chalco Floods

dessication 1980s
1908
Completion of PRONASOL
El Gran Canal Industrial 1988
del Desagüe Mexican development and
Period of haciendas and
1900 Revolution rural exodus
ranchos: Chalco Valley Floods
1910 1940s
main grain supplier to Mexico City 2010
19th–early 20th
1700 1800 1900 2000
c Source: Aragón-Durand (2011) Resource Mexico Valley Mass urbanization Floods

© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, First plans to drain conflicts, Hydraulic Plan for and growth of illegal 2000
Sciences Po, 2015 Lake Chalco floods sewage system peri-urban settlements
1827–1833 1850s 1884-1888 1970s La Compañía
river turned
Development of rail network, Regularization into a dumping
mass agriculture of land titles stream
1878 1988 1990s

Security and conflict
The relationship between climate exodus to cities, or to camps, which may displacement or long-term migration, it
change and migration is often lead to additional tensions between the would be incorrect to assume that these
discussed through a security displaced population and host communi- phenomena automatically result in inse-
prism, whereby climate change ties, or to crime. curity and violence: resource scarcity can
on the one hand, and migration Another scenario links disaster-in- be managed peacefully, and disasters
on the other are seen as a threat duced displacement to tensions even- can incite solidarity.
to peace. Yet, existing evidence tually resulting in conflict, as displaced Conflict is usually a result of multiple
on the topic is inconclusive, and communities put additional pressure on social, political and economic causes,
claims linking climate change, existing resources in areas of destination and must be looked upon as a complex
migration and conflict must be and thus threaten the livelihoods of host multidimensional system of factors;
considered with caution. communities. Other theories posit that there is seldom a single cause behind
people displaced by disasters to tempo- any conflict. Environmental change,
Theories linking climate change to rary camps in fragile states become resource scarcity or a mass influx of
conflict, migration and displacement vulnerable to trafficking and recruit- people can contribute to conflict when
are usually based on projections of ment by armed groups, thus feeding and they add to existing ethnic, religious or
climate-induced resource scarcity in a extending existing political conflicts. political tensions, or are associated with
context of growing demographic pres- Yet, these theories often overlook the inadequate policies.
sure. Environmental security and conflict complexity of conflict – and peace – and A recent study found a connec-
studies put forward different scenarios: of mechanisms at play in the climate tion between climate change and the
in one scenario, climate change causes change–migration nexus. conflict in Syria, as crop failure caused
scarcity in key natural resources such by severe drought and poor water-use
as water or agricultural land, resulting The available evidence policies pushed farmers towards cities,
in disputes between stakeholders and While there is strong evidence linking who joined urban protests against the
leading to armed conflict. Conflict in turn climate change to resource deple- Syrian regime in 2011. Yet, the study
results in displacement, including mass tion and disasters, potentially causing considers drought as one factor among
Examples of theories linking climate change, migration and conflict

Strong connection found in academic literature Questionable connection
Rise of Global
Temperatures Disasters Displacement Camps Recruitment Conflict
As a result More frequent People are forced Many displaced people Groups of armed Larger number
of human or severe disasters to move in order end up in camps or other non-state actors of fighters leads to
carbon emissions (floods, typhoons to survive temporary low recruit in camps. extended conflicts
and droughts) standard dwellings Number of fighters or conflicts spreading

increases to new areas
Tensions
Between migrants
and existing resident
Migration communities
Rise of Global Conflict
Disasters and
Temperatures Environmental displacement
Change Armed
As a result violence
of human
carbon emissions Resource
competition
Source: Randall (2015) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015
82
13:41:38.

EGYPT Local conflicts in Darfur,

1930–2000
RED
Lake Nuba SEA Main cause of conflict
LIBYA Land, grazing and water rights Tribal
Politics, administration and boundaries groups
Armed robberies involved
Third Cataract Port Sudan 1932 Kababish, Kawahla, Berti and Medoub
Gaab
El-Sawani Dongola Eastern 1957 Kababish, Medoub and Zyadiya
front
Ni l e
Fourth Fifth
Cataract Cataract Tokar 1968 Rezeigat, Baggara and Maalia
CHAD Ed Damer
SUDAN At b
ara
Sixth N i l e 1975
Cataract Rezeigat, Baggara and Dinka
Darfur
1976 Beni Helba, Zyadiya and Mahriya
Khartoum Kassala Northern Rezeigat (Abbala) and Dago
Wad Medani
N Rezeigat (Abbala) and Bargo
Ad Duwaym 1978
El Geneina El Fasher N Rezeigat and Gimir
Barah Gedaref
Singa
Zalingei El Obeid
Rabak N Rezeigat and Fur
Mornei
Bl u
Nyala 1980
e
N Rezeigat (Abbala) and Bargo
Nile
Dilling Ed Da Taaisha and Salamat
Ed El Fursan Ed Deain Roseires 1981
El Fula Reservoir ETHIOPIA Kababish, Berti and Ziyadiya
Kadugli 1982 Rezeigat, Baggara and Dinka
B a r el ’ A
Talawdi Nuba Southern
Abyei Mountains Blue Nile
ra
N Rezeigat and Beni Helba

b
1983
Kababish, Kawahla, Berti and Medoub
SOUTH SUDAN 0 250 500 km 1984
Rezeigat and Mysseriya
Farming lands Pastoralism 1985 N Rezeigat and Beni Helba
Grazing lands Cattle, sheep Kababish, Kawahla, Berti and Medoub
Desert and goat Source: UNEP (2007), adapted from maps produced by IOM Sudan
GIS Unit and UNEP (2007) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),
Conflict areas Camel and sheep Gemenne, Stienne, 2015 Gimir and Fallata (Fulani)
1987
Kababish, Kawahla, Berti and Medoub
Natural resources, conflict and mobility in Sudan
Fur and Bidayat
Arab and Fur
1989
Drought is seen as one of the root causes In addition, climate shocks and the degra- Zaghawa and Gimir
of the decade-long conflict in Darfur. The dation of natural resources also affect 1990 Zaghawa and Gimir
region was racked by local inter-community the livelihoods and food security of both Taaisha and Gimir
1991
conflicts over grazing land, natural resources sedentary and pastoralist populations, Bargo and Rezeigat
and territory throughout the twentieth causing displacement and altering tradi- Zaghawa and Maalia
century, in a context of slow-onset environ- tional pastoralist routes. These new Zaghawa and Marareit
mental degradation, disasters, unclear land mobility patterns in turn put additional Zaghawa and Beni Hussein
rights and general instability. The ongoing pressure on land and resources, at times Zaghawa, Mima and Birgid
1994 Zaghawa and Birgid
conflict has resulted in the displacement leading to tensions and disputes between
Zaghawa and Birgid
of entire communities to IDP and refugee communities. 1995 Fur and Turgum
camps in Sudan and abroad, adding to the This intricate relationship between
1996 Zaghawa and Arab
existing complexity of migration flows in conflict, resource and land manage- Zaghawa Sudan and Zaghwa Chad
the country, which consist of internal movement, and population movement in Sudan 1997 Masalit and Arab
ment of pastoralist communities (whose poses numerous challenges in terms of
Zaghawa and Rezeigat
livelihoods and security have also been managing returns and the reintegration of 1998
Kababish Arabs and Midoub
undermined by conflict); flows of inter- displaced communities, reducing poverty
1999 Zaghwa and Gimir
nally displaced people and returnees from and vulnerability, and ensuring sustainable
past conflicts; and refugee flows coming to natural resource and land use. 2000 Fur and Arab
Sudan from neighbouring countries. Source: UNEP (2007) 91: Source: UNEP (2007)
many others, including existing poverty will continue to increase environmental the risk exists, conflict can be avoided
and inequality, high unemployment rates, stress, especially in regions that are through stronger democratic institutions,
inadequate resource management poli- already subject to political, economic and social welfare policies, development and
cies and an oppressive regime, which social instability. In the future, it will be peace building. Where displacement or
together sparked violent political unrest increasingly difficult to distinguish climatic migration occurs, promoting develop-
and resulted in a war that has displaced factors from other causes of conflict; a ment in both departure and destination
millions of people. While prolonged ‘climatic conflict’ is also a political conflict. areas, improving the conditions in host
drought was far from being the deci- communities, and ensuring the integra-
sive factor behind the war in Syria, poor Ensuring peace tion of migrants will be essential in order
management of the environmental crisis Environmental change and migration do to avoid tensions, and ensure human
partly contributed to it. Climate change not unavoidably lead to conflict; where security in a broader sense.

Managing mass displacement
Displacement management is key displacement and loss of life, evacua- Managing displacement
to ensuring the safety and tions must be planned in advance, and Return is not always possible immedi-
protection of vulnerable people communities well informed of the risks ately following an evacuation, and once
affected by hazards. Yet, it can be and prepared to respond. It is impor- the emergency phase is over people may
associated with many challenges. tant to ensure that all people, particularly be transferred from evacuation centres to
those with limited mobility because of transitional settlements, where their stay
As climate change is projected to result in age, a health condition or other factors, can last from weeks to sometimes years.
more frequent and more severe weather are able to evacuate: half of the victims The management of transitional sites
events, and as demographic pres- of Hurricane Katrina were older people (collective centres, planned camps or
sure grows in cities exposed to natural who were unable to leave their houses; spontaneous self-settled camps) consti-
hazards, the risk of future displacement in Bangladesh, more women perished in tutes an immense challenge for govern-
is projected to increase. Disaster risk the 1991 floods than men, because they mental and humanitarian actors, who need
reduction and disaster management will had never learned to swim. to ensure safe conditions and security for
become key areas for policy planning for
local and national authorities, as well as
for international actors. Adequate policy
measures helping to reduce the vulnera-
bility of communities and their exposure
to hazards can significantly contribute to
reducing the risk of displacement.
Planning evacuations Temporary shelter site in Barangay Tagpuro.

When a hazard can be predicted, author- Philippines, 2014. © IOM 2014 - MPH1143
ities can usually conduct evacuations in Shelter solutions following Typhoon Haiyan
advance. This is typically the case with
cyclones or storms, although warning The Typhoon Haiyan displaced 4.1 million return home due to major destruction of
mechanisms also exist to predict people in the Philippines in November their homes and villages, or because of
tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. Evac- 2013. In the early phase of evacuations, unclear land tenure, left the evacuation
many took refuge with relatives, or in make- centres that were designed for short-term
uations can take the form of organ-
shift shelters near their home plots. Others stays, and began moving to transitional
ized group movements to designated looked for assistance in schools, gymna- sites, composed mostly of bunkhouse units
evacuation sites (schools, stadiums, siums and other official evacuation sites and tent cities. Conversion of bunkhouses
concert halls), or of individual moves, provided by the government, or in tent cities into permanent settlements is envisaged as
set up by relief actors following the disaster. a possible long-term solution.
either to collective sites or to alterna-
In the spring of 2014, families unable to Source: Yonetani and Yuen (2014)
tive shelter options (relatives, or rented
temporary accommodation). Evacua-
tions can be compulsory or voluntary,
depending on the context, and on the

projected intensity of the event. Evac-
uations are a key part of disaster risk
reduction and management efforts, and
at times the only option to protect popu- Temporary Housing Site in Louisiana. Baker,
lations exposed to severe hazards and LA, USA, 2005. © FEMA/WIN HENDERSON 2005
to prevent human losses. Disasters that Katrina: providing shelter in the USA
strike suddenly, such as earthquakes
or flash floods, leave no time for evac- When Hurricane Katrina swept through as temporary housing, assembled either
uation, and result in post-hoc displace- New Orleans, the Federal Emergency inside trailer parks or installed directly next
ment. In such cases, people may move Management Agency provided trailers to to damaged houses, these trailers have
the city’s residents whose homes were become part of the local landscape as
to evacuation sites following the disaster,
damaged. These trailers, granted on the the reconstruction process lingered, or as
or seek other options until they are able basis of an application process, have people decided to keep the trailers and buy
to go home or find an alternative longer- been part of the standard FEMA disaster them out from the government.
term solution. To ensure that disasters response for many years. Designed initially Source: McCarthy (2010)
do not result in uncontrollable mass
84 The
13:41:38.

Displacement and settlement options following disasters

Flow occurring
before disaster Main flow Secondary flow Return flow (including as durable solution)
International
or internal Permanent
migration relocation
ALL PHASES
Host family
TRANSITION
EMERGENCY PHASE
Collective PHASE
evacuation
centres
DISASTER Short
term
Medium
term
Long
term
Urban self–settlement TIMELINE

Integration

Destroyed Trapped
or damaged population
houses
Planned camps
Spontaneous
sites
Sustainable This is a theoretical

integration diagram; in practice,
there is no clear-cut
distinction between different
phases: all phases may happen
concurrently, and different
settlement options may be resorted to
Sustainable at earlier or later stages, depending on
Sustainable relocation Rural self–settlement local contexts, capacities and needs.
return Availability of different options varies
from one country or situation to another.
Integration
DURABLE SOLUTION Source: IOM (2013), Shelter Centre and
UN/OCHA (2010) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),
Long term
the displaced people, a sufficient supply of people, for example, are able to rent solution to displacement, where the
food, sanitation and medical services, and private housing for their family; those affected people no longer have assis-
assistance for people with special needs. with relatives abroad may consider inter- tance or protection needs. This can include
The environmental impacts of displace- national migration if they have sufficient sustainable return, where reconstruc-
ment and camps, as well as the impact on means or external support. Poorer house- tion is possible and future risks are limited
host communities, are another concern holds may end up living in the remnants and controllable; local integration in the
that humanitarian actors have to address. of their homes or in makeshift shelters for places where people have been displaced
The conditions of post-disaster displace- months or years. To ensure their protec- to (conversion of transitional sites into
ment vary considerably depending on tion, emergency disaster response must permanent housing, or local integra-
the local or national context: response be combined with longer-term develop- tion in rural or urban areas for self-settled
capacity differs in developing and devel- ment measures. people); or sustainable relocation within
oped countries, and even from one region the country or abroad. Whatever the
or city to another within a country. Indi- Providing durable solutions chosen solution, it must guarantee full
vidual circumstances also influence The ultimate goal of displacement respect of the dignity and human rights
the form displacement may take: some management is to achieve a durable of the displaced people.

Protecting human rights
Environmental change and Relevant measures and rights to be guaranteed at each phase
disasters put human rights and of a rapid-onset disaster
Measu
human security at risk. ed
ante Non- res
to
uar be
beg refoulement un
o Risk assessment de
s t No arbitrary expulsion rta
The vulnerability of individuals and ht ke
trig Safe and dignified Risk information n
b
communities in the context of environ- an Information voluntary return (collection and
dissemination)
y
v
of options
le
St
Adequate standards
mental change is closely linked to the
Re
at
Participation to of living Early warnings
es
planning of return
concept of human security, which IPCC Access to
Housing Recover employment Evacuation plans
defines as ‘a condition that is met when possessions
Access
Education to justice ion
the vital core of human lives is protected, Community
es
rat education
Property teg
Stat
Rele
and when people have the freedom and Allow voluntary in
rights re
return, integration in
r t and B Life and physical
e undertaken by
Pre
vant rig
capacity to live with dignity’. This concept the host community or ve and mental integrity
n
e
resettlement
me
eftion or mitigation
Af t
n
Return, resettle
refers to people’s day to day needs and
ore
Facilitate the
hts to be guara
Information
concerns, and promotes the protection reintegration
of the persons
of individuals’ physical, economic and Facilitate the Full participation
es to b
social well-being, including employment recovery of land, houses, in decision-making and

property and possessions in the development
and income stability, food and water, left behind P ro
te c
D uring of plans
ti o n nt
e me
asur
ntee
nd m anag a
Life and physical Seek assistance
access to healthcare, a safe environment, and mental integrity and accept offers
Me
d
physical protection from violence, human Full Humanitarian Protection of assistance
information assistance measures
dignity and respect of human rights. Principle of Seek free and
non-discrimination Health Prohibition informed consent
When these needs are not met, people Seek safety Safe of arbitrary of the displaced
Feasible
in another shelter displacement alternatives
are likely to find themselves in situations part of the country Safe conditions to displacement Minimize
of greater vulnerability and to be less Respect for of displacement
Re
displacement
es
an family unity Choose Freedom of
le
St
at
v
able to respond to adversity, including tr

ig residence movement Identify the authority by
ht Leave the country responsible to manage en
gradual habitat loss, or environmental st
ob the displacement ak
eg Protection dert
shocks. Conversely, environmental uar n
ant
of possessions eu b
Source: IOM (2014b) o
stress can aggravate existing vulnerabili-
eed res t
© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Measu
ties through its negative impacts on food,
water, health, environmental, economic
or physical security. The link to mobility
in this context is threefold: unplanned or Legal status abroad
forced migration can undermine human
In October 1998, Hurricane Mitch wrought for assistance, for fear of being deported.
security and vulnerability; yet migration
devastation all across Central America, The legal status of people displaced by
can also be a positive solution allowing causing the death of more than 10,000 natural disasters across borders, and those
people to strengthen their livelihoods, people, mostly in Honduras and Nicaragua. wanting to migrate abroad in search of
reduce exposure to harm, and reduce While most of the population took refuge in safer livelihoods in the context of long-term
vulnerability; finally, lack of human secu- shelters and in nearby towns and villages, environmental change such as desertifica-
many also decided to migrate to the USA tion or sea-level rise, is still an unresolved
rity can be a barrier to migration as a in the aftermath of the disaster. As part of issue. Existing legal options for migra-
livelihood strategy to respond to environ- the relief effort, the Clinton administration are not always sufficient or relevant
mental stress. tion granted Temporary Protection Status to respond to the needs of people whose
(TPS) to the Central Americans who were situation does not fall into a clear category.
living in the USA as of 30 December 1998. The absence of safe legal channels for such
Human rights and protection
There was, however, massive confusion migrants can lead to immense human trag-
The protection of human rights is funda- as to who was eligible, and many Central edies, as witnessed along many interna-
mental in order to reduce vulnera- Americans decided to migrate to the USA tional borders, where thousands of undoc-
bility and ensure human security. Every later on, hoping they would receive TPS. umented migrants risk their lives every year
Many of them thus became undocumented trying to reach countries where they hope
human being is entitled to a set of
migrants. Some decided to stay in the USA, to make a new start. Since 2000, more than
universal rights, which guarantee a life while others returned home after a few 40,000 migrants have perished along their
in dignity, and protection from violence months or a few years. When Hurricane journeys. Thousands of others are detained
and abuse, and which must be respected Katrina struck the USA Gulf Coast in 2005, in overcrowded administrative detention
by all. States must therefore ensure many undocumented migrants from Hurri- centres for months or years, while waiting
cane Mitch did not report to the authorities for their legal status to be clarified.
the protection of key social, economic,
cultural and political rights and freedoms
86
13:41:38.

Aleut
leut Previously
Ainu Ainu
Previously
Aleut Aleut Ainu Previously
Kamchadal Ainu
Taz
Taz
Even Udege
Orochi
Alutiiq Ittelmen Orok
ok Ulchi Nanai
Central
al Koryyak
Ko
ALASASK A lask
las
KA Yup'ikk an Kerek
Ke ek Koryak
Ko ak Nivk
Niv k h Negidal
Haida Alutiiq
lutiiq Dena’ina’ina Siberian hukchi Alyu
Chukchi lyuttor
Evenk
Nootkka
Noot Eyak
ak
For the USA, only peoples in the State of Tanac
Tanacross Yup'ik huvvan Even
Chu Even
en
Kw
Kwakiutl Tlingit Ahtna Upper Kus
Ah
Tsimshian
Tsimshian uskkokwim
Alaska are shown. For the Russian Federa- Upper
er T
Tanana
anana
Deg Iñupi Chukchi Yu k agir
Salish Carrierier TTsetsaut
setsaut Tuchone Tanana Tanana Hit'an Iñupiaat Evenk
tion, only peoples of the North, Siberia and BabineTahltan
Tahltan
Tagish Holi
Tagish olikkachuk Saakha
Yukk agir ( Ya
Ya kut)
Far East are shown. Majority populations of
R
Sarsi
arsi Sekkani Hän Koyukon Iñupiat
Iñupi
Kaskaa Gwich'in Sakha
ha
independent States are not shown, not even oot
Blackfoot Even
U
Southe
outhern (Ya
Y kut)
Ya ut)
Beav
a
av er ear No
Bear Northe
therrn
the
when they form minorities in adjacent coun- Buryat
A
A
Atsina
tsina Sla
av
a vey
S S
Lakke Slaaavvey
La
tries (e.g. Finns in Norway). Inuvialuit
A
Dog ogrrib
Assiniboine
oine
Areas show colours according to the original Yellowkni
Yell niffe
S
Evenk Evenk
enk
IA N
Cree Burryat Soy
oyot
C A N A D
languages of the respective indigenous Chipe
hi ewyan Inuit
peoples, even if they do not speak these ofa Tuvinians
Tofa
U
Dolgan
olgan Tuvinian-
languages today. Overlapping populations Cree
ee Inuit Evvenk Todzhin
Nganasan Tuvinians
uvinians
are not shown. The map does not claim to Kha
hakkas Chel
F E D E
Cree
ee Enets Ket Ket Chulym Shor helkkan
show exact boundaries between the indivi- NUNA
NUN AVUT
AVUT eleut Tuba Telengit
Teleut
dual groups. Ojibw
wa Sel
elkup
up Kumandin Altai
In the Russian Federation, indigenous peoples Cree Kalaallit Nenets Selk
elkup
kup
Nenets
Inuit
have a special status only when numbering Haudeno- Algon
saunee
lgonkin Inuit Kha
hant
Cree
ee 80 o Kha
hantt
R
less than 50,000. Names of larger indigenous Huron
GREENL
GREEN LAND Nenets Mansi
ansi
peoples are written in red.
A
Haudeno-
saunee Montagnais- Izhma- Komi
Kalaallit Komi
T I
Nasaskkapi
Naskapi
api Kalaallit Komi-
Abna
bnakki
bna Saami Permyaks
O
Kalaallit 70 o Karelians
elians
N
Saami
Karelians
elians
Beothuk ICEL
ICELAND Vepsians
F
FAROE Saami FINL
FINLAND
AND
ISLANDS
IS ANDS
of individuals, including those displaced Faaroese
ese NORW
NO WA
WA
AYY
60 o SWEDEN
across borders. In the context of disas-
Indigenous peoples DENMARK
ters, States and other actors are respon- of the Arctic countries
sible for the protection of relevant rights
Subdivision according
ding to language families 50 o
before, during and after a disaster, and
Na'Dene family
have to respond with measures tailored
Eyak branch
to each phase of a disaster.
Haida branch
In the context of slow-onset phenomena, Tlingit branch
more emphasis must be placed on A
Athabas kan branch Eskimo-Aleut family Uralic-Yu
Y kagiran family
Yu
protecting those rights which guar- Penutan family Yupik group of Eskimo branch Finno-Ugric branch
antee longer-term development and Inuit group of Eskimo branch Samodic branch
livelihood security, such as land rights, Macro-Sioux family Aleut group Yukagiran branch
economic, social and cultural rights, or Sioux branch
Macro-Algonkian family Altaic family
civil and political rights. This could also Iroquois branch
Algonkian branch Tunguso-Manchurian branch
include addressing the needs and rights Chukotko-Kamchatkan Salish branch Turkic branch
of people considering migration abroad family W kasha branch
Wa Mongolic branch
as an adaptation strategy. Isolated language
Indo-European family
Many individuals, and especially Ket
Germanic branch
migrants, are not aware of the rights Nivkhe
Source: Stefansson Arctic Institute (2004), data compiled
they are entitled to, and of the support Aïnu by W. K. Dallmann and P. Schweitzer. © IOM (Mokhnacheva,
Ionesco), Gemenne, Stienne, 2015
to which they can resort; it is therefore
essential to improve their access to infor-
mation and legal support. Indigenous rights
The Arctic is home to more than 20 groups of longer sufficient to adapt to such rapid envi-
Climate, migration and health indigenous peoples across Canada, Alaska, ronmental change. The introduction of the
Greenland, Scandinavia and Russia, repre- globalized economy, western culture and
senting 10 per cent of the population living in technology may have helped to improve
Following disasters, displaced people the region. Their survival is now threatened, certain aspects of life, but they have also
can be very vulnerable to health impacts as the Arctic region is warming faster than any introduced new problems, such as unem-
related to unsafe water, sanitation and other region on the planet, and experiences ployment, inequality, alcoholism and stress,
hygiene, or malnutrition, especially when harsher impacts of climate change than most and the loss of many aspects of native
they have limited access to healthcare. of the rest of the world. Disappearing sea ice, culture.
Conversely, health problems can become severe storms, coastal erosion, ocean acidi- The rights of indigenous communities and
a barrier to moving out of hazard-prone fication and changing temperatures damage the need to protect their culture have been
areas, thereby increasing the vulner- transport and infrastructure, introduce new increasingly recognized at the international
ability of those who cannot move. health risks, affect local biodiversity and and regional levels. Yet, certain rights such
Climate change poses new health chal- natural cycles, and jeopardize the livelihoods as access to resources and land – particu-
lenges through its impacts on food secu- of local communities traditionally dependent larly crucial in the context of climate change
rity, water availability, hazard frequency on hunting, fishing and herding, and spirit- – are still an issue, and so is discrimination
or spread of infectious disease. In this ually close to nature. that native people face when migrating to
context, migration can help escape phys- Migration becomes a common prac- cities, as demonstrated by the high rates of
ical dangers, reduce health risks, and tice for these communities, who also face unemployment and poor living conditions
access better health services. economic, social and political marginaliza- of these populations in cities.
Source: McMichael et al. (2012) tion, and whose traditional knowledge is no Source: Koivurova et al. (2008)

Individual coping strategies
Each individual experiences a

natural disaster or environmental
stress in a personal way. We are
all different in the way we
interpret risk, cope with it and
adapt the course of our lives
following displacement or
migration.
Disaster-induced displacement has a

severe impact on the lives of the individ-
uals who experience it. The combined
negative effects of trauma associated
with disasters, and those of trauma asso-
ciated with displacement, make the
experience particularly tough. Physical
exposure to disasters and injuries, death
or separation from loved ones, loss of
economic assets, disruption of social ties
and of living conditions, can all be difficult
to cope with, and can have serious social,
personal, mental and health conse- Forty days after the 2011 tsunami, the victims of the Fukushima disaster come back to their ruined
quences. Individuals displaced by disas- homes to retrieve their belongings. Suetsugi, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, 2011. © ANTONIO PAGNOTTA 2011
ters and their families may face increased

poverty and vulnerability, marginaliza- context. In addition, internal or indi- Integration, between stigma and
tion, loneliness and integration difficul- vidual characteristics including age and solidarity
ties in the new environment. Depression, gender, personality traits, physical and Migration can be a stressful experience,
trauma, behavioural problems, psycho- mental health and resilience, social skills even when it is voluntary. Change in
logical distress or even post-traumatic and cognitive abilities can also greatly social and cultural environments, such as
stress disorders in some extreme cases influence the capacity of a person to exposure to a different language, food or
are also recurrent problems among respond to and recover from a traumatic culture, can create cultural distance and
those displaced, as studies on the after- experience. Existing illnesses, disabili- a feeling of ‘otherness’. Integration can
math of disasters such as the earthquake ties or predispositions to mental disor- be very difficult, especially when host
in Haiti or Hurricane Katrina show. ders can contribute to maladaptation and communities are reluctant to accept
trauma, while good physical condition, newcomers: xenophobia and discrim-
Resilience: individual abilities and high self-esteem and emotional stability ination are common in all parts of the
strategies can help to cope with stressful situations world, and constitute major barriers to
The ability of an individual to cope with more easily. accessing jobs, safe living conditions
stress associated with displacement and
disasters depends on a number of risk or
resilience factors. Contextual factors such A testimony of a Fukushima evacuee:
as the physical and socio-economic envi-
ronment play a key role in shaping indi- ‘When I evacuated to Niigata Prefecture Prefecture, I saw a notice saying that the
vidual vulnerability or resilience: following [200km west of the Fukushima Daiichi place is reserved for non-Fukushima
Hurricane Katrina, children separated plant], I was really discriminated against … people. Moreover, every time I parked my
For example, when I went to a public bath car in a supermarket car park, when I came
from their parents and friends were
to take a shower, there was a hand-written back to my car, there were no cars parked
found to cope with much greater diffi- notice saying “Entry prohibited to persons around mine. In fact, because of my number
culty than those who could reunite with from Fukushima”. I was really shocked. plate, everybody could see that I came from
their peers, or obtain external support. Actually, I experienced the same thing even the area included in the evacuation zone.
in Aizu region [the western part of Fukus- So no one wanted to park their car close to
Economic loss has also been identified
hima Prefecture; 100km from the nuclear mine.’
as a great impediment to adapting to station]. Although Aizu is part of Fukushima Source: cited in Hasegawa (2013)
a post-disaster and post-displacement
88 The
13:41:38.

Disaster-induced displacement: psycho-social impacts and individual risk and resilience factors
Possible psychological problems
Trauma, Sadness,
Loneliness, Marginalization,
Maladaptation, Depression,
Psychological distress,
Post-traumatic stress
disorders, Problems
of behaviour
RISK AND VULNERABILITY FACTORS POSSIBLE MEASURES, SOLUTIONS
Biological Individual
Genetic
predispositions Medical and
Biological developmental psychotherapeutic
stage and related behaviour treatment
and vulnerability
Microsystem Absence of care Assistance programmes,

caring facilities, trained social workers Family
Loss of friends or loss of support network Integration programmes and support,
facilitation of dialogue, communication Peers
Disorientation due to new work environment, Team-building and conflict resolution in workplace,
colleagues, teachers, schoolmates facilitators and trainings for management staff Work and school
Negative impacts on performance Involving teaching staff in schools to facilitate
integration and adjustment
Loss of daily habits, loss of community support, Psychological support in developing coping strategies
cultural differences and problems of acceptance
Maintaining stability in the new place Neighbourhood
Community integration workshops, meetings
Maintaining contact with family
and friends living in other places
Exosystem Unequal distribution of incomes and Economic and social policies facilitating
access to employment opportunities employment, housing, child care, education Economic system
Loss or absence of health insurance limiting access to healthcare, Programmes addressing poverty Social welfare
system of allowances and financial support
Strength or weakness of institutions, corruption, Institutional capacity building Government and
local governance, absence of appropriate legislation (welfare packages, legislation) political system
Discrimination, absence of alternative support Recognition of rights and status
systems such as religious system of the most vulnerable population
Community
Differences in home culture, Community-level integration
and new community culture programmes and dialogue
Problems of acculturation
Macrosystem
General beliefs and values: stigma, stereotypes Promoting values of equality, solidarity
and justice through education, Society
religion and work ethics, or through
awareness-raising campaigns.
Source: Conceived by D. Mokhnacheva, with the contribution of G. Schininà, based on the Bronfenbrenner ecological model (1977) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015
and adequate living standards. In Japan, to Russia from rural areas affected by For example, individual or group
evacuees from the Fukushima Prefec- environmental degradation in Tajik- psycho-social support has proved effec-
ture who fled the consequences of the istan are exposed to abuse and exploita- tive in helping people to cope with the
nuclear accident suffered from discrimi- tion; many of them are undocumented, impacts of disasters. Programmes facil-
nation by the rest of the population, who adding to the precariousness of their itating family reunification, reconnecting
considered them as ‘contaminated’. situation. people, or organizing community-based
Some were denied access to public support networks can also play a crucial
baths, or even to some localities; in other Preventing and addressing role in the reintegration of individuals.
cases children were bullied at school. individual risks At another level, ensuring human secu-
Elsewhere, numerous studies report The impacts of disaster-induced rity and the respect of human rights is
on the hardships migrant workers face displacement on the individual may be also key to reducing individual vulner-
abroad, such as unsafe working condi- offset through the provision of appro- ability, for example by improving phys-
tions, low wages, and lack of access to priate conditions and assistance: ical security and access to jobs, to places
basic rights, services and social protec- well-conceived interventions and poli- of worship, to health services, and to
tion. An IOM study found, for example, cies can help individuals to cope with schools; and through policies addressing
that many migrant workers coming and adjust to their new environment. poverty, inequality and discrimination.

Gender and migration
Environmental migration can

increase an individual’s
vulnerability or, on the contrary,
constitute a vector for personal
development, according to the
different roles played by women
and men within their families and
communities.
Climate change often has a differing

impact on men and women according to
the social and cultural context in which
the concerned population finds itself.
In societies marked by a pronounced
gender differentiation of roles, the risks
are, for instance, greater for women in the
case of flooding if they do not have direct
knowledge of the warning signs, do not
know how to swim, or are forbidden from
going outside alone. More generally,
in the event of a natural disaster, the
number of dead and injured is higher
among women whose mobility is limited
by the sociocultural context. Women
and children also more pronouncedly
suffer the social consequences of a
crisis situation, in which protection
mechanisms and the legal apparatus to
combat human trafficking generally no
longer function.
Differing consequences of migration

Moreover, migration caused by climate
and environmental change tends to
exacerbate pre-existing inequalities,
intensifying in particular the gender- To recover from typhoon Haiyan, Charisse Licana undertook carpentry training to be able to
specific dimension of discrimination rebuild her house. Philippines, 2014. © IOM/ALAN MOTUS 2014
and poverty. A study carried out in the

Chiapas region in Mexico demonstrates them of their rights and separating them patterns to reduce women to the
that climate change has led to a reduction from their family. stereotype of passive victims.
in household income, the departure of Critically, gender-specific analysis of
men, and an increased domestic burden New opportunities migration helps to reveal the specificities
on women, who also have to deal with Migration can also lead to changes in of the roles played by women and men in
the emotional strain caused by the loss the roles that are attributed to women their sociocultural contexts; and to better
of plantations and the occurrence of in their society of origin and strengthen discern the different ways in which they
illness among their children. In such a their financial independence and their are affected by climate and environmental
case, male migration has exacerbated contribution to the economy. Several events, and implement their mobility
female vulnerability. But migration can studies have recently highlighted the strategy. Such an understanding is
also prove to be an increased cause of key role that migrant women can play in indispensable in providing adequate,
vulnerability for men as well, forcing development strategies via remittances, fair and sustainable responses and in
them to work in difficult conditions, to for example in the Philippines. It would avoiding the exacerbation of pre-existing
settle in poor urban zones, depriving thus be an error when studying migration inequalities.
90 The
13:41:38.

Environment and mobility: a gender perspective
Vulnerability Empowerment
Exposure to health and physical risks
Stay
During and after The large majority of the 800,000
a disaster, men ‘liquidators’, who helped clean up MEN
can put their lives the site following the Chernobyl Livelihood loss
at risk by nuclear disaster, were men. They
engaging in Climate change may lead to
rescue were exposed to high levels of unemployment among
operations. radiation; those who survived farmers and herders. In the
suffered from long term health absence of alternative
problems. livelihood options and
opportunities to migrate,
livelihoods may deteriorate
quickly, leading to poverty and
Leadership
food insecurity.
When men migrate
alone, women are left Remittances
Income diversification
to manage
households and take Male migration is a
Male heads of households may coping strategy for many
up tasks usually decide to send younger family
performed by men. households affected by
members to urban centres or climate change, helping
Women may thus abroad to secure a new source
gain increased to diversify resources
of income for the family, and and support families
decision-making relieve some pressure on the
power and new skills. through remittances sent
household as there are fewer home.
people to feed. In the Himalayas
Stress and physical remittances became a
violence significant source of
Climate change and income for communities
disasters may increase exposed to environmen-
women's physical and tal stress, allowing
emotional stress in Adaptation to climate mountain households to
some traditional rural change cope and recover more
communities, as they Women can be powerful quickly following
often carry the Poverty, exclusion,
actors to influence disasters.
responsibility of exploitation
adaptation to climate
ensuring food security change and build Low skilled migrant workers
y
s ta
and the well-being of resilience. can be exposed to poverty,
their families. In the exploitation, marginalization,
absence of men, and violation of human rights
o
women face increased

Wh
in large cities or abroad,

workload and exposure particularly if they are
to physical abuse and Limited land rights
undocumented.
rate
violence. and access

In Bangladesh, a study to information
found that when women In many communities,
women have limited land Social status
ig
are left behind in the

migration process and property rights, and
m Migration can offer new opportunities for men to
without protection from
little access to
information, which makes Who develop new skills, access better-paid jobs and improve
standards of living, which can in turn contribute to
a male member of them even more strengthening their social and political status back
household, they can vulnerable to disasters home upon their return.
face sexual harassment, and to the impacts of
violence and even early climate change.
marriage, causing
Physical risks
long-term negative
social and demographic Economic independence Migrants may encounter
impacts. physical dangers along the way
Migration allows women to and upon arrival, particularly
generate their own revenues and when using irregular migration
achieve economic independence; channels: risk of injuries,
Use of remittances it can be an important strategy for disease, physical abuse,
single mothers to help support violence or even death. Those

Women tend to allocate their families through who fall victim to human
more resources to food, remittances. trafficking are especially
health and education, vulnerable.
and to use remittances
sent by their relatives in
ways that contribute to Trafficking, exploitation, violence
building the household's Migrants, and particularly women, can be
resilience to economic very vulnerable to human trafficking,
Migrat e
and environmental especially in situations of crisis or disaster,
shocks. where traffickers take advantage of the
chaos and increased vulnerability of
affected individuals.
Access to education A study in Chiapas, Mexico, found that more and more young
Young women migrate to women migrate to get access to education, as agricultural jobs
gain access to education become less viable due to the negative impacts of climate
as an alternative to
change and consecutive severe weather events. Education
agricultural jobs.
offers access to new, better employment opportunities
for these young women in the city.
WOMEN Sources: Angula (2010), Banerjee et al. (2014), IOM (2012), Jungehülsing (2010), Warner et al. (2012), WHO (2002)



Governance and
policy responses
E
nvironmental migration is in essence the Development, the Berne Initiative and the Nansen Initiative,
subject of a dual political interest, both migra- whose non-binding agenda was adopted by 109 States in 2015.
tory and environmental, but it also touches Furthermore, migrants do not fit into one single legal framework
upon a number of other fields, making poli- but fall within the jurisdiction of different frameworks –
tical action in this sphere both extremely internally displaced people, refugees, economic migrants
comprehensive and highly complex. The – or laws dealing with human trafficking, a diverse series of
previous parts of this Atlas have dealt with realities that further constrains the possibility of providing
the mesh of migratory factors and the diffi- overarching responses. Legal protection for environmental
culty of discerning climatic, meteorological and environmental migrants is the subject of many political and academic debates.
causes. They have subsequently analysed environmental migra- Like all of the other categories of migrants, environmental
tion through the prism of the challenges and opportunities that migrants are protected by international human rights law, but
it presents. Part 4 addresses the frameworks, measures and the non-respect and non-application of these rights creates
political actors that can provide responses to environmental specific vulnerabilities and issues.
migration. In this context, in order to address the issue of environmental
migration, the only conceivable solution is a flexible approach
A dual recognition covering different legal fields, elements of soft law, and
The salutary recognition of the importance of environmental migration policies. Regional consultation processes dealing
factors in migration by political representatives and the with migration have, for instance, proved to be effective
international community has helped to better understand means of improving cooperation between States. By mutually
the migration channels in question and the root causes of the strengthening one another, they could contribute to the
migration crises that the contemporary world is experiencing. It progressive establishment of a global migration architecture,
has also helped to put human beings at the heart of migration filling the void left by the dearth of global governance.
and climate change adaptation policies, and served to raise Moreover, in order to respond to the human mobility issues
essential questions: who is responsible for environmental caused by sudden and slow-onset disasters, it is necessary to
migration? Who is tasked with providing adapted responses? institute a full range of prevention, protection and migration-
Which political framework is the most appropriate to develop facilitating measures. Delineated by IOM since 2008, the
and implement action? following three strategic axes provide a good example of
Migration constitutes a separate political field for two principal support for political action and action on the ground: prevent
reasons. First, unlike other fields, such as trade, States wish to forced migration; assist and protect migrants if forced migration
preserve their national prerogatives, making the establishment occurs; and facilitate migration as an adaptation strategy
of international governance and international negotiation through agreements on mobility between States. The Nansen
frameworks extremely difficult. States favour non-binding Protection Agenda also employs this approach.
forms of dialogue and exchanges of best practices, such as the
United Nations Secretary General’s High-Level Dialogue on Environmental answers to environmental questions
International Migration and Development, IOM’s International Given the lack of global governance in the field of migration,
Dialogue on Migration, the Global Forum on Migration and and in light of the extremely elevated predictions regarding
Ionesco, Dina, et al. The Atlas of Environmental Migration, Taylor & Francis Group, 2016. ProQuest Ebook Central, http://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/fiu/detail.action?docID=4748531.
94 The
13:10:24.

the future number of migrants related to processes of slow defined as a particular group, with their specific strengths and
environmental degradation, the issue of human mobility has vulnerabilities, fall within all of these fields and are officially
been addressed in climate negotiations. The binding and recognized as such. Environmental and climatic issues also
structured nature of UNFCCC has appealed to certain States span all of these fields. At the September 2015 Sustainable
and intergovernmental and academic actors seeking to Development Summit, UN Member States adopted 17
promote environmental migration as a field of political action. international goals to put an end to poverty, combat inequality
Human mobility was initially included in 2010 in the Cancún and injustice, and to address climate change, up to the year
Adaptation Framework, then in 2011 in the framework of the 2030. These goals integrate migration policies and the role of
Loss and Damage Programme; finally, references were made migrants, their communities and diasporas, into development
to migrants and mobility in the Paris Agreement adopted strategies. This constitutes historic progress in comparison
at the COP21 in December 2015. These frameworks deal to the previous Millennium Development Goals, from which
above all with forced migration and the limitation of loss and migration was entirely absent. The Sendai Framework for
damage linked to climate change, an easier subject to tackle Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, adopted by 187 States,
than voluntary migration. But if they wish to provide effective takes human mobility into account. The first World Humanitarian
responses, they must not lose sight of the positive potential Summit, in May 2016, should also address forced migration
of human mobility; they must systematically integrate it into linked to natural disasters. Finally, during the Third International
their adaptation planning processes, financial mechanisms, Conference on Financing for Development, which took place in
technology transfers and capacity building. The issue of Ethiopia in July 2015, the international community negotiated
human mobility could also be more firmly included on the a new framework for financing sustainable development,
agenda of climate change mitigation policies, for instance symbolic of the interconnection between funding for adaptation
through measures that seek to reduce the ecological and sustainable development.
footprint of camps for internally displaced people. Although none of these frameworks deals specifically with
The climate negotiations framework cannot alone address all environmental migration, the newfound visibility of the
of the challenges posed by environmental migration, but it issue across all of the fields covered by all of these different
constitutes a favoured forum to make progress on policies frameworks suggests that there is a good chance that migrants
and the means of implementing them. Giving up on the will not be the major oversight of the next series of international
inclusion of human mobility under the pretext that other policies.
political fields would be more apt to address the issue would The risk remains, however, that a political field that is everyone’s
amount to an extremely detrimental compartmentalization of concern becomes nobody’s concern, and that different leaders
policies. seek to offload the issue onto their neighbours. It is thus vital to
continue to act on all fronts. The destiny of future environmental
At the junction of political fields migrants depends just as much on the effectiveness of the
In 2015, States were called upon to negotiate joint agreements fight against climate change as on the existence of legal
in the fields of development, climate, disaster risk reduction and migration channels, active disaster risk management, suitable
humanitarian action, defining the action agenda of international humanitarian responses, and development and job creation
actors in these fields for the coming 15 years. Migrants, policies.

Interdisciplinary answers to interdisciplinary questions either by those who migrate, or by their hosts, or by those
Environmental migration necessitates multifaceted analysis. An who stay put. They can alleviate environmental degradation or
initial level outlines the political fields – migration, environment, encourage the creation of jobs that are less sensitive to climate
development, humanitarian, disaster risk reduction, human variations in rural communities in order to limit emigration.
rights, security, urbanization and land management – across They can provide the poorest households with the means to
which differentiated action must be conducted. The second migrate, improve the economic conditions of destination areas,
level concerns the actors involved: States; intergovernmental, and draw populations away from risk zones.
non-governmental and private actors; and migrants themselves. Second, environmental migration requires overarching and
The third level determines the echelons of political action: balanced political responses that take the entirety of the migratory
international, regional, bilateral, national and local, although in cycle into account – before, during and after migration – while
reality political responses must be formulated at each and every respecting human rights norms and operating in accordance
echelon. A fourth level deals with the available economic and with migrants’ needs in terms of assistance and protection.
financial means as well as the political will and the institutional Third, while environmental migration would be better off being
capacity of authorities to respond to such complex issues. integrated into various political processes, it also deserves
Part 4 explores environmental migration from the vantage point an overarching agenda that helps to understand migratory
of political responses and demonstrates all of these different flows and routes, factors of mobility and issues relating to
levels of analysis. It first examines the cost of environmental the protection of migrants. All fields of migration governance
migration and its management while simultaneously should be solicited, be it border control, consular services,
highlighting the cost of inaction should the reality continue facilitated migration, migrants’ access to information or the
to be ignored. It then analyses protection frameworks for respect of their rights.
migrants and their communities along with the different types Finally, a clear understanding of the needs and issues is
of available or projected legal responses. Finally, it details the essential to develop proactive solutions to the migration
echelons and fora for negotiation and political dialogue, notably crisis, which act on its underlying causes and not solely on its
multilateral, regional and intergovernmental frameworks, symptoms. It is imperative to highlight the environmental and
and then evaluates existing practices in the fields of disaster climatic vectors which, interwoven with political, economic and
risk reduction, adaptation, development and migration. Such demographic issues, impel millions of people to leave their
practices could inspire innovative action and partnerships at homes in search of a better life elsewhere. The international
the local, national and regional levels in which migrants would community has everything to gain by refocusing its thinking
be considered as actors in their own right. concerning the mobility of the people affected by climate
Three convictions underpin Part 4 of the Atlas. First, policies change, as while this mobility is wholly inevitable, it could also
can ensure that environmental migration is not suffered, give rise to solutions.
96 The
13:10:24.

Migrants rescued in the Channel of Sicily by Italian Coast Guard. Strait of Sicily, Mediterranean, 2015. © IOM/FRANCESCO MALAVOLTA 2015

Canada
California California
Calgary
(2003) (1994)
(2013)
3,500,000 30,000,000
5,700,000
South-west
Costliest disasters for each region, Mid-west
by type of event, United (2012)
States 20,000,000
1991–2014, in USD thousands
Mexico Louisiana
(2005)
Chiapas Chiapas 125,000,000
(1996) (2007) Iceland Russia
1,000,000 3,000,000 North Khakassia
Gulf of Mexico (1996) (2014)
Guatemala (2010) 16,500 1,320,000
20,000,000 Switzerland
(2010)
Evolene
500,000 Honduras
(1999)
(1998) France 685,000
3,793,600 (1999)
8,000,000 Germany
Saxony, Bavaria
Galicia
(2013)
(2014)
12,900,000
Ecuador 1,320,000
Tungurahua Italy
Chimborazo Spain
Ferrare
(1995)
(2006) (2012)
4,500,000 Guadalajara
150,000 15,800,000
(2005)
2,050,000 Skikda
Morocco (2005)
(2014) Algeria 800,000
450,000
Thenia
Boumerdes, Zemmouri
Chile (2003)
5,000,000
San Fernando
Maule Bio-Bio
(2010) (1999) Brazil Nigeria
30,000,000 280,000 North-east (2010)
(2009) 500,000
5,000,000
Democratic
Republic
of the Congo
Goma
(2002)
The cost of environmental

9,000
migration (1992)
1,000,000
South
Africa
Kwazulu Natal
(2008)
430,000
The human cost of migration, by billion of which were directly attribut- to prevent it. The sums committed by
far the most significant, is able to the Fukushima disaster in Japan. sponsors and humanitarian actors to
inestimable: it is the cost of Disasters are generally more costly in emergency response far exceed those
uprooting and of abandonment. industrialized countries: Fukushima is invested in risk reduction or reconstruc-
Conversely, it is possible to currently the most expensive disaster in tion. Not only is it easier to mobilize inter-
evaluate the cost of disasters, history, followed by Hurricane Katrina national aid to respond to emergencies
and the damage they cause and in the United States in 2005 (125 billion than to implement long-term preven-
the repairs they necessitate, as dollars), and the Kobe earthquake in tion plans or carry out reconstruction,
well as that associated with Japan in 1995 (100 billion dollars). The but budgets are also often compartmen-
climate change adaptation. damage in developing countries is no talized into humanitarian aid and recon-
less considerable, but its monetary eval- struction and relief programmes. Over
The cost of natural disasters is uation is significantly lower: the 2004 the past few years, the share of human-
constantly increasing. In the 1980s, tsunami in South-East Asia and the 2010 itarian aid as compared with recon-
it was approaching an average of 20 earthquake in Haiti do not even feature struction and relief programmes has
billion dollars per year. In the 1990s, the in the list of the 20 most costly disasters markedly increased; it now accounts for
average more than tripled, up to 70 billion in history, yet they are among the most roughly three-quarters of the interna-
dollars. The figure is now close to 200 deadly, claiming more than 200,000 lives tional budget devoted to natural disas-
billion dollars, excluding inflation. The each. ters, in spite of the growing political
most expensive year yet was 2011, with It is infinitely more expensive to repair importance afforded to prevention and
total losses of 380 billion dollars, 210 the damage caused by a disaster than reconstruction programmes.
98
13:10:24.

Governance and policy responses
Global cost of disasters since 1960

Japan in USD billions, by decade
Fukushima
(2011) 903.8
891.4
210,000,000
Eastern New Britain

Zambales (1994)
sia Zhouqu
Pampanga 1,100,000
ssia (2010) Papua
14) (1991) New Guinea
759,000 699.5
000 211,000 Porgera
(1994)
Guangdong Philippines
China 12,000
(1994) Samara
13,755,200 (2011)
Leyte
2,500,000
Cebu
(2013)
10,000,000 Queensland
Thailand New South Wales
(2012) (2002)
Australia 2,000,000
40,000,000
Indonesia Southern
Sumatra Western
Kalimantan (2010) (2009)
India New Zealand
(1997) 7,300,000 1,300,000
Oman Sea Christchurch
8,000,000
(2005) (2011)
410,000 15,000,000 185.5
53.8
Type of event 18.4
Earthquake
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Floods 1969 1979 1989 1999 2010 2014
Storm Source: Guha-Sapir et al. (2015)
Drought
Industrial accident
Landslide
Volcano
Wildfire
Source: Guha-Sapir et al. (2015)
atal
Allocation of disaster-related aid by type of activities, 1991–2010

DRR Emergency Response Reconstruction and Rehabilitation
Evaluating the cost of environmental % 100
migration remains an extraordinarily

90
difficult exercise. First of all, the direct
costs have to be identified, namely those 80
linked to the reception and protection

of migrants. Referring to the refugees 70
placed under the protection of UNHCR,
it fluctuates between 30 and 160 dollars 60
per refugee per year. The economic cost
50
then has to be identified, namely the
damages suffered by migrants and the
40
associated loss of productivity. Finally –
on top of everything else – the culture, 30
social and personal costs must be meas-
ured, which are often immeasurable in 20
the truest sense of the term.
10
Repair 0
When it comes to repairing the ever more 1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
significant damage caused by natural Source: Kellet and Caravani (2013) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015

disasters, insurance companies, and Existing estimates of current and future annual costs of adaptation
especially reinsurance companies, find
World Bank (2010)

UNDP (2007)
Estimation source
Oxfam (2007)
themselves on the front line. Specific Annual cost
(billion dollars)
financial instruments, such as catastrophe 120
bonds, have even been developed to 109
110
better pool the risks linked to disasters.
UNFCCC (2007)
100
100
Insurance could also play an important
role in climate change adaptation policies 90
Project Catalyst (2009)

World Bank (2006)
86
and, possibly, in policies to reduce the 80
Stern Report (2007)

cost of environmental migration. The ‘loss 70 75 67
and damage’ mechanism, established in
Project Catalyst (2009)

60
Warsaw in 2013 during the climate nego-
50
tiations, was thus created to compensate 41 From
37 50 37
losses that are an unavoidable conse- 40
quence of adaptation – including forced 30

28
migration. However, mechanisms based 20 14
on insurance solutions require strong 10 15
9
and effective regulatory frameworks, and 0
4 8
above all the confidence of the different Time Horizon Horizon Horizon Horizon From 2030
Horizon 2010
Horizon 2015 2010–2020 2010–2050 2030 onwards
actors involved.
Source: Weikmans (2012) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015
The cost of adaptation …

Another significant cost to take into
account is that of adaptation policies,
whose implementation – or lack thereof
– could have a pronounced impact on
the costs of disasters and forced migra-
tion. These costs will largely depend
on the ability of States and local actors
to apply policies to reduce the risks of
disasters and the vulnerability of popu-
lations. Estimates of the annual adapta-
tion needs of developing countries vary
greatly according to different sources
and methods of calculation. According
to UNEP and the World Bank, they could
exceed 100 billion dollars per year for all
climate risks. The UNFCCC Secretariat
gives a much lower estimate, between
28 and 67 billion dollars annually. But
the cost of numerous needs has not even A school converted to a temporary evacuation centre after typhoon Haiyan. Pilar, Capiz,
been assessed, such as the necessary Philippines, 2013. © IOM/ALAN MOTUS 2014
resources for the poorest rural popu-

lations to be able to adapt to climate
change.
… versus the cost of inaction

These sums seem colossal, but they
must be put into perspective with the
cost of inaction; in the absence of adap-
tation policies, the annual cost of the
damage that countries will have to
face will be more colossal still. To give
an example, the damage caused by
flooding in the European Union up to
the end of the twenty-first century could
be up to three times more costly should
no adaptation measures be undertaken, Informal settlement in Korail, near Gulshan Residential Area. Bangladesh, 2014. © HURAERA JABEEN
100 13:10:24.

even accounting for the necessary adaptation measures rather than waiting evidence, the mobilization of the neces-
funding for these measures. Aside from to count the cost of future natural sary resources to address the needs of
the financial gain, a lesser exposure disasters and environmental degrada- the most vulnerable countries remains
to risk could help to save many lives. It tion. While academic, institutional and an immense challenge with regard to
is thus greatly preferable to instigate political circles have assimilated this adaptation.
The high costs of inaction,

2030–2100
No Adaptation Adaptation
Estimates for flood risk in the
European Union
Number of people subject to flood risk 776

thousands per year 21 35
6 5 3
2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100
3.5
1.7 2.3
Cost of adaptation 0 0 0
billion euros per year 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100
16.9
Cost of damages 2.3

1.7
billion euros per year 1.9 2.0 2.3
2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100
16.9
TOTAL COST 2.3 5.8

1.7 4.2
billion euros per year 3.6
2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100

Source: Weikmans (2012) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015
Financial instruments, migration and risk management
There are almost no financial instruments for example, provide for the insurance of the Development Bank, for its part, has associ-
specifically dealing with the risks linked to property of the poorest people and help to ated the risks inherent in migration and finan-
migration in the context of disasters. Certain prepare populations for displacement linked cial risk management mechanisms that can
insurance policies cover forced displacement to climatic and meteorological phenomena. In respond to such risks in a single approach.
among other elements. The existing instru- Ethiopia, a mechanism exists that provides a An interesting example is its Policy on Invol-
ments deal with the management of loss and safety net to populations exposed to drought untary Resettlement, which supports reset-
damage associated with extreme weather and famine. Other innovative products help to tlement resulting from irreversible envi-
events, such as the ‘Caribbean Catastrophe pool risk by transferring it to financial markets, ronmental degradation through financial
Risk Insurance Facility’, created in 2007, or such as catastrophe bonds, used in response prevention and compensation mechanisms.
the MCII initiative, a partnership between to extreme phenomena, or weather deriva- According to financial innovation special-
several insurance companies, research insti- tives, linked to measurable phenomena such ists, it is possible to go even further regarding
tutes and international cooperation agencies as heat waves and pluviometric changes. the establishment of specialized insurance
focused on the search for solutions to manage The funds generated by these mechanisms policies, which take into account long-term
climate risks through risk transfer tools. could help to support countries or regions phenomena such as desertification coastal
Certain micro-insurance mechanisms, in India struck by disasters. Since 2010, the Asian erosion and sea-level rise.

Funding action
Financial mechanisms, either for implemented in order to better support also brings States together around
adaptation or development, do and manage environmental migration. several specific mechanisms to finance
not sufficiently take migration adaptation: the Least Developed Coun-
into account, despite the strong Financing adaptation: tries Fund, the Special Climate Change
links that exist between these a complicated system Fund and the Adaptation Fund. Access
issues. Climate funds constitute impor- to these Funds goes through accredited
tant channels of access to adaptation international organizations, or directly
Funding measures to deal with an issue funding. They are extremely diverse via the States that propose projects. The
as complex as environmental migra- and constantly evolving, and principally Green Climate Fund was also set up by
tion poses a real challenge. Certain pass through multilateral channels. For UNFCCC in 2010 to channel the totality
programmes to reduce forced migration instance, the Global Environment Fund, of climate funding; it should reach 100
or to provide support to migrants already created in 1991, aims to implement billion dollars per year by 2020.
benefit from traditional funding channels international environment conventions
for climate change adaptation, disaster that provide assistance to developing From development to adaptation?
risk reduction, and development. Yet, countries or countries in transition and A large share of international adapta-
more flexible mechanisms and innova- constitutes the primary source of project tion aid passes through other chan-
tive partnerships must be developed and funding in the climate sphere. UNFCCC nels, which are either multilateral or
Adaptation-related international public flows, 2013

Amount committed in 2013 (million dollars) Amount pledged (million dollars) Amount disbursed (million dollars) Financial flows
Contributing OECD countries
Adaptation-related Bilateral Adaptation-related Bilateral Adaptation-related Multilateral

Other Official Funding Official Development Assistance Official Development Assistance
3,409
116–190 3,593–11,099
Multilateral Climate-specific Channels

230
907 Non-climate-specific
Non-climate-specific Adaptation-related
• Least Developed Countries Fund
Adaptation-related Bilateral Channels Since 2002 151 Multilateral Channels
UN D ER T HE U N FC C C
(Bilateral funds, initiatives,

344 58 (Multilateral development
banks and development agencies) • Special Climate Change Fund
Since 2002 227 banks, IOs, NGOs)
3,709–11,289 • Adaptation Fund of the 469 67 4,826

Kyoto Protocol Since 2009 116
5,100
• Green Climate Fund

Total
7 8,719
In 2014
• Pilot Programme for Climate 1,160

NOT LINKED TO
THE UNFCCC
Resilience (World Bank) 41

Since 2008
386 706
• Global Climate Change Alliance Since
(European Commission) Since 2008 164 2002
Recipient countries • Adaptation for Smallholder 353
(non-OECD) Agriculture Program (IFAD) Since 2012 0
8,535–16,115
Source: Van Gameren et al. (2014) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015
102 11:00:43.

Angola
bilateral: the International Climate Initi- Bilateral adaptation-related funding: RECIPIENTS Benin
Burkina Faso
ative (Germany) or the International fast-start finance contributions, 2010–2012 Burundi
Cameroon
CONTRIBUTORS
Climate Fund (UK), for example, directly Cape Verde
finance programmes and bodies estab- Australia 39 Congo, Dem. rep.

Cote d’Ivoire
lished by vulnerable developing coun- Austria 2 Djibouti
Eritrea
Belgium 3.6
tries, such as the Amazon Fund in Brazil.
Canada 40
Many of these support systems are run Ethiopia 119
Cyprus 0.8
by national development actors, which Czech Republic 6
contributes to the fact that climate Denmark
Gambia
Ghana
European 9
funding is increasingly integrated with Commission Kenya 55
Finland 2.9
development funding. Lesotho
Af r i c a
France Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Raising climate funds Mauritania
Mauritius
Although climate funds are fairly difficult Morocco
Germany 187
to keep track of due to their multiplicity Mozambique
and diversity, the OECD and the Climate Namibia

Niger
Policy Initiative have estimated the total Nigeria
Greece Rwanda
amount of public and private funding Senegal
Seychelles
for this issue from industrialized coun- Ireland 79 Sierra Leone
South Africa
Somalia
tries at 62 billion dollars in 2014, which Sudan/South Sudan

Tanzania
55
is an encouraging sign. New promises Togo
Italy 76
of funding continue to materialize on the Tunisia
back of important climate meetings. The Uganda
European Union has notably announced Zambia

Egypt
that at least 20 per cent of its budget will Iran
Middle
Iraq
East
Jordan
be devoted to climate action between Lebanon
Palestine
Syria
now and 2020. The African Develop- Yemen
Afghanistan
ment Bank has declared that it will have Bangladesh 65
Bhutan
tripled its climate funding by the same
Cambodia 50
date, and the World Bank has promised China
to increase its annual assistance to coun- India
Japan 637
tries exposed to climate change by one Indonesia 51
Korea, Dem, Rep
third, namely 29 billion dollars per year. Kyrgyzstan
Lao PDR Malaysia
Maldives
But numerous challenges remain. One of Myanmar
Mongolia
Nepal
the foremost among them is the reduc-
Asia
tion of inequalities among countries
Pakistan 78
regarding access to funds, which can
largely be explained by the complexity Philippines 79
of the mechanisms, procedures, and
Sri Lanka
the required conditions. The improve- Thailand
Timor Leste
ment of the ability of beneficiary coun-
Latvia Vietnam 61
tries to manage these funds and to use
Liechtenstein 0.4 Cook Islands

Fiji
them effectively and transparently is also Netherlands 1 Marshall islands
Pacific
Papua New Guinea

a significant challenge. Samoa
Solomon Islands
Norway 86 Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Argentina
Poland 1.4 Barbados
Slovakia 1.4 Bolivia
Spain 2.6 Brazil
Amount of contribution in USD million Chile
Colombia
Sweden 39 Costa Rica
La t i n A m e r i c a
Switzerland Cuba
6
Dominican Republic
United Ecuador
Kingdom 1.8 El Salvador
Guatemala
100 50 10 5 1 Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
This diagram only shows bilateral flows (the flows from Jamaica
one country to another), and not the flows towards Mexico
a particular region. As such, it does not include data for United States 304 Nicaragua
of America Panama
Denmark, France, Greece and Latvia, which exclusively Paraguay
send funds to entire regions. Peru
Albania
Source: Nakhooda et al. (2013) Armenia
Europe
Georgia
© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco),
Moldova
Gemenne, Boissière, 2015 Montenegro
Serbia
Ukraine

Migration funding climate-related activities. This is the case case for Nepal, where such transfers
Although it is recognized as an element for the IOM Development Fund, created accounted for 29.1 per cent of GDP in
of adaptation in UNFCCC texts, migra- in 2001, to which Azerbaijan, Bangla- 2013 to 2014, and where in 2015 two
tion remains the notable absentee desh, Egypt, the Maldives, Mali, Nepal Secretaries of State underlined in an
from programmes financed by climate and Peru have all applied to launch pilot article on the most pressing issues in
funds. This is partly due to the fact that projects integrating both migration and climate negotiations the leverage role
the necessary action needed to deal responses to climate change. Certain that governments and local authorities
with this issue is not well understood. EU programmes, such as the Thematic could play to support funds transfers
However, the two issues will soon be Programme on Migration and Asylum, from migrants towards concrete climate
indissociable, be it a matter of facilitating have also helped to fund dialogue and change adaptation strategies. The coun-
adaptation through migration or better capacity-building initiatives for actors to tries in the Pacific, which are emblem-
managing adaptation in order to reduce better manage environmental migration, atic of the issue of migration related to
forced migration. It is thus crucial to for instance in Kenya, Mauritius, Papua sea-level rise, are also highly dependent
improve access to climate funds in order New Guinea, Haiti and the Dominican on funds sent by their compatriots living
to finance initiatives that jointly address Republic. abroad.
both issues. The creation in 2015 of the All of these migratory revenues could
V20 Group, which brings together the The role of migrants help to bolster development and climate
Finance Ministers of the twenty coun- Migrants themselves can make a signif- change adaptation activities, for which
tries most vulnerable to climate change icant contribution to climate change available funds remain limited. Although
with the aim of mobilizing and stimu- adaptation and to prevention against it is above all a matter of private funds,
lating climate funding, is a positive step mass migration, through remittances to innovative mechanisms could be estab-
in the right direction. The V20 represents their regions of origin. The World Bank lished to multiply their effects through
almost 700 million people threatened by has estimated that funds transfers to and complementary funds or to reorient
climate change, and migration has been within Sub-Saharan Africa amounted to them towards local development and
identified within this forum as a funda- 40 million dollars in 2010. By way of climate change adaptation initiatives,
mental area of action. comparison, in the same year, the total while also involving the recipients of
Currently, it is chiefly humanitarian and figure for development aid directed to these transfers. Public authorities have a
development actors that finance opera- the region was 26.5 billion dollars. The key role to play to support and maximize
tions linked to environmental migration. Asian countries most exposed to climate such initiatives, without taxing them or
Funds dedicated to migration and devel- change also receive significant sums in diverting them from their primary objec-
opment also exist that support certain funds transfers. This is particularly the tives. Beyond funds transfers, public and
Total in 2013 As a share of GDP Remittances for 20 countries

(million dollars) in 2013 (%)
most vulnerable to climate change*, 2013
0.045 ANGOLA 0.00 * Countries with ‘Acute’ or ‘Severe’ vulnerability
17 PAPUA NEW GUINEA 0.10 to climate change according to DARA, which
experienced highest climate-related economic
33 CONGO, DEM. REP. 0.10
losses in 2010
229 MYANMAR 0.40
210 CAMEROON 0.72 Sources: DARA and the Climate Vulnerable Forum (2012), World Bank (2013)
120 © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015
BURKINA FASO 1.00
176 CAMBODIA 1.15

373 COTE D'IVOIRE 1.21
217 MOZAMBIQUE 1.42
93 GUINEA 1.50
69,970 INDIA 3.73
427 MADAGASCAR 4.00
20,890 NIGERIA 4.00
784 MALI 7.17
1,081 NICARAGUA 9.61
1,614 SENEGAL 10.65
13,857 BANGLADESH 10.67
2,161 JAMAICA 15.05
3,971 EL SALVADOR 16.37
3,136 HONDURAS 16.91
104
11:00:43.

private policies can offer incentives and Innovative partnerships and solutions
ad hoc mechanisms to also encourage
communities established abroad and The private sector could play a key role funds are of benefit to the most vulnerable
diasporas to direct their investments in funding adaptation and environmental through, for example, public–private part-
towards priority adaptation activities. Yet, migration, through direct investment in nerships in which the interests of the most
programmes, the establishment of dias- vulnerable people and migrants would be
in order for diasporas to invest in their
pora support mechanisms, and in-kind at the heart of the process. Finally, adap-
countries of origin, it is essential to create contributions such as transport assistance tation funding also poses certain ethical
an atmosphere of trust and to offer them and communication in the case of natural questions: how can the exclusion of entire
the opportunity to invest in economically disasters. The creation of a carbon tax or groups be avoided? Can the fact that the
other market instruments could also help mechanisms put in place to finance certain
profitable activities. It is on this condi-
to increase available funds. The challenge activities will not create new inequality
tion that migrants and diasporas could remains to attract private funds to public or increase carbon dioxide emissions be
become major actors in climate change programmes and to ensure that these guaranteed?
adaptation.
Remittances and potential for adaptation

Essential conditions:
Financial support Transparency, reliability, affordability,
to family members speed and security of transaction,
regulations and control.
SENDER
Internal migrants
Diaspora
Financial
planning
Savings
FAMILY Insurance
Investments
Education
Financial support to community projects, Work tools
investments, micro-finance projects, Living expenses Land
innovative financial mechanisms for Financial expenses Food Consumer goods
adaptation (e.g. matching funds, climate Rent Housing TV set
insurances, market instruments) Debt repayment Health Car
Education
Clothes
COMMUNITY
Collective infrastructure investments
Essential conditions:
Collective adaptation projects
Government support Risk reduction projects

(e.g. incentives, tax
exemptions or concessions),
attractive investment
conditions and economic POVERTY
opportunities, official
development REDUCTION
assistance (including INCREASED
climate funds) RESILIENCE
Traditional use of remittances
Potential use of remittances
Potential benefits of remittances
Note: this diagram focuses on financial remittances only.

Source: Conceived by E. Bournay, with the contributions of D. Mokhnacheva, S. Lee, B. Bendandi and C. Crimella
© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Zoï Environment Network, 2015

International law
While there are no binding of environmental change. For example, all migrant workers and their families.
international legal instruments the 1966 International Covenants on It can also apply to individuals whose
specifically addressing the rights Economic, Social and Cultural Rights livelihoods have been affected by envi-
of environmental migrants, and on Civil and Political Rights impose ronmental change, pushing them
several instruments under obligations on States parties to respect abroad in search of better employment
existing international law human rights and protect all individuals, opportunities.
guarantee the respect and irrespective of their status in the country Other international instruments contain
protection of the rights of all where they find themselves (nationals provisions protecting individuals against
individuals. and non-nationals both in a regular human trafficking, exploitation, forced
and in an irregular situation). Of most labour and smuggling, situations to which
According to international standards, relevance to migrants, human rights people displaced by environmental
States are responsible for protecting law contains provisions on the right to disasters are particularly vulnerable.
every person within their territory, as freedom of movement and the right to
well as their own nationals abroad. In enter one’s own country. It also protects New challenges and limitations of
this context, environmental migrants are against forcible return through the prin- existing frameworks
entitled to protection like all other indi- ciple of non-refoulement, as well as Even though the existing human rights
viduals, whether they move internally, or against arbitrary or collective expulsions. framework does provide protection to
across borders. This protection applies irrespective of the environmental migrants, better tailored
causes of migration. legal solutions may still be required
Protecting human rights Some international instruments provide to address migration induced in part
International law ensures universal protection to specific categories of by environmental factors. These solu-
protection of human rights, which are migrants, such as the 1990 Conven- tions may help to enhance individuals’
also relevant to migrants in the context tion on the protection of the rights of protection – for example by ensuring
Key rights relevant to

environmental migration
and relevant legal instruments, 2014 Number of
States Parties 50
UDHR
ICCPR
ICESCR
ICERD
CAT
CEDAW
CRC
ICRMW
ICRPD
CSSP
CRS
Right to... dignity

protection from torture or cruel, inhuman or degrading Soft law instrument:
treatment or punishment/Principle of non-refoulement UDHR Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948)
work
respect for privacy and home
General Human Rights:
protection from slavery, servitude, compulsory labour
ICCPR International Covenant on Civil

and Political Rights (1966)
life and physical integrity
ICESCR International Covenant on Economic, Social
liberty and security and Cultural Rights (1966)
ICERD International Convention on the Elimination
freedom of movement and to choose one's residence of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (1965)
health CAT Convention against Torture and Other Cruel,
Inhuman or Degrading Treatment (1984)
respect for family life
access to a remedy and to compensation Specific Groups:
CEDAW Convention on the Elimination of All Forms
protection from discrimination
of Discrimination Against Women (1979)
return to one's own country CRC Convention on the Rights of the Child (1989)
information and participation ICRMW International Convention on the Protection
of the Rights of All Migrant Workers
housing and Members of Their Families (1990)
Nationality/Naturalization/ ICRPD International Convention on the Rights
non-discriminatory access to nationality of Persons with Disabilities (2006)
an adequate standard of living
Statelessness:
education
CSSP Convention relating to
a healthy environment the Status of Stateless Persons (1954)
CRS 1961 Convention on the Reduction
property, land and to security of tenure of Statelessness (1961)
Source: Perruchoud and Tomolova (2007), UN (n.d.) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015
106 11:00:43.

access to a legal status in case of cross- affected persons could benefit from Nationality law may also apply in specific
border movements, including in the protection under the Refugee Conven- cases, including to ensure the protec-
context of small island States that are at tion, but not specifically because of envi- tion of the citizens of small island States;
risk of becoming unsuitable for human ronmental factors. or of children born from parents living
settlement. On the other hand, the principle of in prolonged displacement following a
To address the situation of cross-border non-refoulement, officially enshrined in disaster and at risk of statelessness. The
environmental migrants, scholars have the 1951 Refugee Convention and the 1954 Convention relating to the status of
considered relying on provisions under 1984 Torture Convention, and part of stateless persons and the 1961 Conven-
different branches of law including customary international law, may play tion on the reduction of statelessness
refugee law. Yet, refugee law deals with a crucial role. According to it, a person could potentially be applied to prevent
specific categories of migrants, and does cannot be sent back to a country where concerned individuals from becoming
not directly apply to persons crossing he or she risks being submitted to torture stateless.
borders because of environmental or inhumane or degrading treatment. In Yet, these instruments alone can not
degradation. Therefore, the use of the these cases, States have to seek a solu- provide comprehensive solutions to the
term ‘environmental’ or ‘climate’ refugee tion for the individual, which may include wide range of situations in which individ-
is not legally sound. In some particular resettlement to a safe third country or uals affected by environmental change
cases of migration crises combining granting the person a legal status, at least may find themselves.
environmental factors and violence, on a temporary basis.
The case of the family from Tuvalu
In June 2014, a family from Tuvalu was

granted residency in New Zealand by
the country’s Immigration and Protec-
UNITED tion Tribunal. The media evoked a first
STATES legal recognition of ‘climate refugees’. Yet,
while the family had originally applied for
refugee status, presenting the negative
effects of climate change in Tuvalu as part
SAINT KITTS
of the basis for their claim, the claim was
AND NEVIS dismissed, as none of the criteria of the
CAPE VERDE Refugee Convention were applicable. The
VENEZUELA Parties to the Tribunal based its decision on exceptional
Convention and Protocol humanitarian grounds due to specific
relating to the Status family circumstances, rather than on the
of Refugees, as of 2014 impacts of climate change. The decision
MADAGASCAR was discretionary and not based on any
Parties to both
legal obligation.
Parties to 1951Convention only
Source: UN (n.d.) Source: McAdam (2014)
© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Parties to 1967 Protocol only
Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015 Non members
Why altering the Refugee Convention is not the solution
The Refugee Convention was created do, would not find protection under this
in the post-Second World War context instrument. Finally, people whose live-
to ensure the protection of people lihoods have been affected by environ-
fleeing persecution. The criteria defining mental change and who decide to move
a refugee under the Convention are in search of better opportunities would
restricted to ‘fear of persecution for not have the same needs as those who
reasons of race, religion, nationality, are forcibly displaced. Therefore, altering
membership of a particular social group, the Refugee Convention to include envi-
or political opinion’, and do not include ronmental factors would not solve the
environmental factors. The Refugee problem, but may conversely undermine
Convention is only concerned with people the special protection regime for refugees
crossing borders; those moving inter- as currently defined by the Convention.
nally, as most environmental migrants Source: Fatima et al. (2014) Vaitupu Atoll, Tuvalu. © UNU-EHS/ANDREA MILAN.

Building a new legal framework
Some scholars have suggested has worked since 2007 on developing most coming from academic institu-
amending existing instruments, provisions for the protection of persons in tions, or from public–private partner-
or adopting a new convention, so the event of disasters, an area not suffi- ships involving academia, law firms or
as to ensure a binding framework ciently addressed by international law. NGOs. Most new proposals are interpre-
specifically adapted to While the current version of the draft arti- tations of existing law: some have built
environmental displacement. cles does not explicitly mention displace- their proposals on existing refugee law
ment, the set of provisions applies to all (Docherty and Giannini); others have
Legal provisions to address environ- persons affected by disasters, which suggested addressing the issue under
mental displacement can be found in includes those who are displaced. The the existing climate change regime
human rights law, environmental law, and proposal is still at a draft stage, but may (Biermann and Boas, 2010). Yet others
by analogy in refugee law and human- subsequently result in the adoption of an have proposed broader conventions on
itarian law, as well as in many others. international convention by States. the status of climate change or envi-
Some endeavours have sought to clarify ronmentally displaced people, bringing
existing rules and adapt them to the Towards a new framework? together human rights, humanitarian
specific context of disasters. One inter- In terms of a legal framework dealing and environmental law and climate
esting process in that regard is the work specifically with displacement in the governance. The Draft Convention on
of the International Law Commission context of disasters or climate change, the International Status of Environmen-
(ILC) on draft articles on protection of several examples of proposals for a new tally Displaced Persons proposed by
persons in the event of disasters. The ILC binding legal instrument can be cited, the University of Limoges is one of the
Soft law instruments and key rights relevant Relevant soft law Proposals for new legal
instruments
to environmental migration, 2014 instruments, 2007–2015
Sphere Project
Work on Draft Articles Draft Convention

IDP Guiding
on the Protection of
Guidelines
Handbook
2007 on the International

Principles
Principles
Pinheiro
Persons in the Event Status of

of Disasters
IASC
Environmentally-
International Law
Displaced Persons
Commission (UN)
Right to... access to a remedy and to compensation Michel Prieur
2008 (University of Limoges)
documentation
property restitution, recovery, claims Proposal for
information and participation a Convention on
Proposal for Climate Change
property, land and security of tenure UNFCCC Protocol 2009 Refugees
prohibition of discrimination on the Recognition, Docherty and Giannini
Protection, and (University of Harvard)
liberty
Resettlement
freedom of movement and to choose a residence of Climate Refugees
Biermann and Boas Proposal for
access to employment opportunities a Convention for
(Vrije Universiteit, 2010
an adequate standard of living Amsterdam) Climate Change
health Displaced Persons
David Hodgkinson
protection and security (The Hodgkinson
life and physical integrity Group, University

of Western Australia)
dignity
protection against forced and arbitrary displacement or eviction
adequate housing or to a shelter
respect for privacy and home
family unity
principle of non-refoulement
protection against torture and inhumane and degrading treatment
request and to receive humanitarian assistance
education
voluntary return Draft International
protection against trafficking, child labour, Convention on
contemporary forms of slavery 2014
the Status of
IDP Guiding Principles 1998 Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement Environmentally-
Pinheiro Principles 2005 Principles on Housing and Property Restitution for Refugees and Displaced Persons Displaced Persons Academic proposal
Yvon Martinet,
Sphere Project Handbook 2011 Sphere Project Handbook: Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in UN body
(Paris Bar
Humanitarian Response Association) NGO/public–private
IASC Guidelines 2011 Inter-Agency Standing Committee Operational Guidelines on the Protection of Persons partnership intiatives
in Situations of Natural Disasters
Source: IASC (2011), Sphere Project (2011), UN (2005), UNHCHR (1998) Source: Cournil and Mayer (2014), Savin et al. (2014)
© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015 © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015
108 11:00:43.

most comprehensive proposals, setting to existing conventions, such as the Examples of soft law approaches include
out very clear governance mechanisms UNFCCC or the 1951 Refugee Conven- the Peninsula Principles on Climate
and institutions to provide protection to tion, are also unlikely to be accepted by Displacement within States proposed by
affected individuals. All these proposals governments. Therefore, a more flexible the Geneva-based NGO Displacement
focus on forced displacement, and do soft law approach has often appeared to Solutions, or the Sendai Framework
not include provisions to facilitate volun- be a more viable legal avenue. for Disaster Risk Reduction adopted in
tary forms of migration. 2015, which makes explicit mention of
Soft law as a way forward displacement.
Challenges ahead Soft law instruments are non-binding
Yet, considering the difficulties in instruments that often bring together and State-led initiatives
achieving widespread ratification of reinterpret different sources of law and Other approaches to develop a protec-
some of the existing instruments on rights to fill gaps in some unregulated tion agenda include State-led initia-
migration (such as the Convention on areas. A non-binding instrument similar tives, such as the work conducted by the
Migrant Workers), and given the sensi- to the 1998 Guiding Principles on Internal Nansen Initiative on Disaster-Induced
tivity of both migration and environ- Displacement could be more easily Cross-Border Displacement; or the work
mental issues, consensus on a universal accepted by States and would well serve undertaken by the Migrants in Coun-
binding instrument may be hard to the purpose of providing guidelines on tries in Crisis Initiative (MICIC) aiming
reach. Furthermore, the complexity of how to adapt the existing legal framework to develop guidelines for the protection
factors and situations, and the absence to the question of environmental migra- of migrants caught in countries in situ-
of distinct categories of environmental tion. A soft law instrument could also be ations of crisis, including natural disas-
migrants would make it difficult to a short-term solution that may be subse- ters. The outcomes of these consultative
define a clear legal status and binding quently translated into a binding text at processes may form the basis for new
framework applicable to all cases. the national, regional or even interna- laws, soft law instruments or binding
Fundamental revisions or additions tional level, if States reach an agreement. agreements in the future.
The Nansen Initiative, 2015 The Nansen Initiative was launched

in 2012 by Switzerland and Norway,
Steering Group
designed as a state-led consultative
Regional process to build consensus on a Protec-
Consultations
tion Agenda addressing the needs of
Civil Society
Meeting people displaced across borders in the
NORWAY
context of disasters and climate change.
GERMANY The Nansen Initiative comprised a
Kathmandu, Steering Group, a Group of Friends
NEPAL Manila,
Guatemala City, Geneva, (Feb. 2015) PHILIPPINES of the Nansen Initiative (made up of
MEXICO
GUATEMALA SWITZERLAND (Oct. 2014)
(O interested States and regional organ-
(April 2014) (Oct.
Oct. 2015) Suva, izations), a Consultative Committee,
Khulna, FIJI
San Jose, BANGLADESH (Aug. 2014) an Envoy and a Secretariat. Its protec-
COSTA RICA (April 2015)
(Dec. 2013) Bangkok, tion agenda, developed on the back of a
Nairobi, THAILAND series of regional consultations and civil
KENYA (July 2014)
(May 2014) Rarotonga, society meetings, was adopted by 109
(March 2014) COOK ISLANDS
States during the October 2015 inter-
AUSTRALIA (May 2013)
governmental consultation in Geneva.
The Nansen Initiative came to an end
in December 2015 and will be followed
by a phase of implementation of the

protection agenda. Implementation
Regional Consultations and Events, 2012–2015 provisions were in the course of being
Pacific Civil Society Meeting South-East Asia established at the beginning of 2016.
Pacific Regional Aug. 18–20 Regional Consultation Source: Nansen Initiative (2015)
Consultation Oct. 15–17
May 21–24 South-East Asia South Asia
Civil Society Meeting Regional
June 30–July 1st Consultation
Launch of April 3–5
Nansen Initiative
Oct. 2
2013 2014 2015

Central America Greater Horn Global Consultation
Regional Consultation of Africa Regional Oct. 12–13
Dec. 2–4 Consultation
May 21–23
Global Event Greater Horn South Asia
of Africa Civil Central America Civil Civil Society
Regional Consultation
Society Meeting Society Meeting Meeting
Civil Society Meeting March 3–4 April 1–2 Feb. 2–3
Source: Nansen Initiative (n.d.) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015

Regional legal frameworks
Regional human rights Additional protocol to the American some scholars, this provision could be
frameworks play a growing role Convention on Human Rights in the used to confer upon Member States the
in promoting and protecting Area of Economic, Social and Cultural duty to relocate people living in unsafe
human rights. They offer a Rights (Protocol of San Salvador) in the or unsatisfactory environmental settings,
propitious space to tailor legal OAS. Most of these regional frameworks or assist them in their decision to move.
solutions that address include mechanisms allowing individuals With respect to environmental matters
environmental migration. to bring claims before regional courts. In specifically, the UNECE Convention on
the Asia Pacific region, historically char- Access to Information, Public Partici-
Regional and sub-regional organiza- acterized by limited intergovernmental pation in Decision-Making and Access
tions bring together countries that are cooperation in the field of human rights, to Justice in Environmental Matters
likely to have close social, economic and the Association of Southeast Asian (Aarhus Convention) is a regional tool of
cultural profiles and ties; geographical Nations (ASEAN) established an Inter- particular interest, recognizing the right
proximity means shared interests and governmental Commission on Human ‘to live in an environment adequate to
concerns – including in relation to migra- Rights in 2009, and adopted a Human [one’s] health and well-being’. The provi-
tion, climate change and environmental Rights Declaration in 2012. The Declara- sions under this Convention are appli-
matters. Interconnectedness facilitates tion, carrying symbolic value rather than cable irrespective of the nationality of the
cooperation on delicate issues such as being an effective legally binding instru- persons concerned, and could therefore
building consensus over ambitious legal ment, is for the moment the only human serve to address some concerns in rela-
instruments. rights tool in the region. tion to environmental migrants.
Regional human rights instruments Right to environment Protecting the rights of internally
Four regional intergovernmental organ- Regional instruments serve to comple- displaced persons
izations have binding instruments ment national and international human Since much of migration takes place
promoting and protecting human rights rights instruments, sometimes containing internally or between bordering States,
among their Member States: the Euro- more advanced provisions tailored to migration governance has increasingly
pean Union, followed by the Organization the needs and concerns specific to the shifted to the regional level, including
of American States, the African Union region. This aspect is particularly inter- through the integration of international
and the League of Arab States, have all esting in relation to the protection of law provisions in relation to migration,
adopted binding regional conventions environmental migrants, since regional displacement and refugee status into
or charters affirming the provisions of instruments may offer scope for special regional legal frameworks.
international human rights law. Some provisions addressing related concerns. In some cases, regional organizations
of these instruments have been subse- This is the case, for instance, of the ‘right have broadened the 1951 Convention
quently complemented, strengthened to a healthy environment’, recognized definition of refugee in regional legal
and broadened with additional proto- in the African and Arab Charters, in the instruments. The 1969 OAU Conven-
cols and instruments, such as the Euro- OAS Protocol of San Salvador, and in tion Governing the Specific Aspects of
pean Social Charter in the EU and the the ASEAN Declaration. According to Refugee Problems in Africa extends the
Regional instruments on human rights, right to environment and displacement, 1950–2014
ECHR (1950)
European Convention on Human Rights
ACHR (1969) American Convention

on Human Rights
Protocol of San Salvador (1988)
African Charter
on Human and Peoples’ Rights (1981)
Arab Charter on Human Rights (2004)
Asian Human Rights Declaration (2012)

(non-binding)
Source: African Union (n.d.), Council of Europe (n.d.), ICGLR (n.d.), OAS (n.d.), UN (n.d.)
110 11:00:43.

criteria for the refugee status to ‘events

seriously disturbing public order’, and
the non-binding OAS Cartagena Decla-
ration, makes similar recommendations.
Such formulations could be stretched
to include natural disasters, as in the
case of the Cartagena+30 Brazil Decla-
ration adopted in 2014, which explicitly
mentions climate change and disasters.
Protection of IDPs in the context of

disasters in Africa
Creation Entry
Other regional organizations have taken into force
a step further by translating the UN
Kampala (2009–2012)
Guiding Principles on Internal Displace- African Union Convention for the Protection
ment into regional law. This is the and Assistance of Internally Displaced
Persons in Africa
case with several binding instruments
Great Lakes (2006–2008)
adopted in the African region over the Protocol on the Protection and Assistance to Internally
last few years. The 2009 African Union Displaced Persons to the Pact on Security,
Stability and Development
Convention for the Protection and Assis-
tance of Internally Displaced Persons African Charter on the Rights
and Welfare of the Child
in Africa (Kampala Convention), which (1990–1999)
entered into force in 2012, is ground-

breaking in this regard. The Conven- Source: African Union (n.d.), ICGLR (n.d.)
tion, ratified by 25 States as of late 2015,
is the first binding regional instrument
explicitly offering protection to people
displaced by natural disasters (article Ratification of relevant
5.4), and goes beyond the Guiding Prin- regional instruments in Africa, 2015
ciples by including climate change. At a
sub-regional level, the Member States
of the International Conference on the Unlike the Kampala Convention it does with parents in case of separation due to
Great Lakes Region have adopted a not mention climate change. In addition natural disasters (article 25.2(b)).
Protocol on the Protection and Assis- to these instruments, the African Charter While regional legal frameworks may offer
tance to Internally Displaced Persons to on the Rights and Welfare of the Child more flexibility and scope for addressing
the Pact on Security, Stability and Devel- also contains provisions on protection the protection needs of environmental
opment in 2006. This Protocol is also of children displaced through natural migrants, their practical application may
based on the UN Guiding Principles and disasters (Preamble, article 23.4), and be challenging, and will have to be tested
applies to people displaced by disasters. on States’ obligation to reunite children at the national and regional levels.
Regional instruments on human rights, right to environment and displacement, 1950–2014 2006 (2008)
Protocol on the Protection
and Assistance to Internally
Key : Displaced Persons to
1988 (1999)
Creation Non-binding
Additional protocol the Pact on Security, Stability
declaration and Development**
1981 (1986) to the American
1984 Convention on 2004 2012
Entry 1969 (1978) Cartagena Human Rights in Arab Charter Asian Human
into force
American Convention Declaration the area of economic, Rights
on Human Rights on Refugees social and cultural rights* Declaration*
1950 (1953) 1981 (1986) 1998 (2001)

European Convention African Charter on Human 1998 (2001) United Nations Eco- 2009 (2012)
on Human Rights and Peoples’ Rights* 1990 (1999) Aarhus nomic Commission African Union
Convention* for Europe Convention Convention for
African Charter
on Access to Information, the Protection
* Includes provisions for right to safe environment on the Rights and
Public Participation in and Assistance of
** Includes provisions for protection in the event of disasters Welfare of the Child**
Decision-Making and Internally Displaced
Source: African Union (n.d.), Council of Europe (n.d.), ICGLR (n.d.), OAS (n.d.), Access to Justice in Persons in Africa**
UN (n.d.) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015 Environmental Matters

At the crossroads
of international agendas
Environmental migration is at the Political action to tackle climate change displacement, migration and planned
junction of several fields of public has, for its part, integrated human relocation, thereby re-establishing the
policy, and political action in this mobility from the perspective of adapta- diversity of migration and its various
domain is both disparate and tion and loss and damage. forms, and it invokes the need to plan
complex. A dual trend can, migration rather than simply reacting to
however, be discerned: human Migration on the climate and envi- natural hazards in retrospect. Thereafter,
mobility is increasingly included ronment agenda the issue of displacement, a component
on the agenda of climate issues, Migration issues were first included in of human mobility, was integrated in the
while, reciprocally, environmental the UNFCCC during its negotiations in work programme on loss and damage
topics are being included in Cancún in 2010, as part of paragraph adopted at the 2012 Doha Conference.
political debates on migration. 14(f) of the framework text dealing A significant lobbying effort has subse-
with climate change adaptation poli- quently been undertaken by several
The international political ‘post 2015’ cies. This recognition, which follows organizations to include migration in
agenda of the United Nations comprises the recommendations made by the the greatest possible number of texts
several processes that should allow IPCC, is the result of efforts of certain negotiated during international climate
States to reach agreements in the fields governments, international organiza- conferences.
of development, climate, disaster risk tions, researchers and representatives On 12 December 2015, the 196 parties
reduction and humanitarian aid. Migrants of the non-governmental and private (195 States and the European Union) to
were long absent from these political sectors. Although the text is short, it the UNFCCC adopted the Paris Agree-
spheres as a distinct group with its own has the advantage of attaching human ment by consensus. This Agreement
vulnerabilities and strengths, but are now mobility to the climate agenda. Broadly is seen as historic and universal as, for
formally deliberated on various levels. speaking, it includes forced population the first time, it rallies all parties to the
Major international policy processes and key dates

for migration, environment and climate change, 1971–2015
Global environment processes Humanitarian response
Biodiversity Migration
Climate change Development
Desertification Disaster risk reduction
This diagram only shows the major events in each of the political fields, between 1971 and 2015.
The events that establish a link between migration, environment, and climate are shown in bold.
UN
Sources: IASC (n.d.), IOM (n.d.), UNCBD (n.d.), UNCCD (n.d.), UNDESA (n.d.), UNFCCC (n.d.), UNISDR (n.d.)
© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Stienne, 2015 Population
and
Development
Conference
Yokohama
Strategy and
Start of Plan of
International Action for a
Decade for UN
Conference Safer World
Natural
Disaster on UNCCD
Environment IPCC report
Reduction International ‘The
and Symposium on
International Development: Regional
Convention Creation of Desertification Impacts
Rio and Migrations
on the Conventions of Climate
Emergency in Almeria Change:
UNEP Ad Protection of Relief
Brundtland UNCBD An
Hoc Working the Rights of Coordinator UNCCD
Commission adopted Assessment
Group of All Migrant position and enters into
Creation of Stockholm Report on of Vulnera-
Experts on Workers Inter- UNCCD force Guiding
the United Conference sustainable bility’
Biological 1st IPCC Agency adopted Principles on
Nations on the 1st World IUCN World development UNCBD UNFCCC
Diversity Assessment Standing COP3 Kyoto Internal
Disaster Human Climate Conservation ‘Our Common UNFCCC enters into enters into COP1
Relief Office Environment Conference Strategy Future’ IPCC created Report Committee adopted force force in Berlin Protocol Displacement
1971 1972 1979 1980 1987 1988 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998
112 11:00:43.

UNFCCC around climate change. The for managing migration: it encourages development of an international policy
Agreement’s preamble states, ‘Parties international cooperation, promotes framework on migration; the High-
should, when taking action to address policies of prevention and response to Level Dialogue on International Migra-
climate change, respect, promote, and displacement following natural disas- tion and Development, convened by the
consider their respective obligations on ters and takes into account the active United Nations Secretary General; the
… the rights of migrants’. Furthermore, role of migrants in risk reduction. The Global Forum on Migration and Devel-
the Agreement calls for the Warsaw processes dealing with environmental opment; the UN High Commissioner for
International Mechanism for Loss protection and sustainable development Refugees Dialogue on Protection Chal-
and Damage associated with Climate also increasingly include social issues lenges; and the Nansen Initiative’s Global
Change Impacts to be strengthened and the rights of vulnerable populations, Consultation.
and requests the Mechanism’s Execu- including migrants: the text adopted by
tive Committee to establish a taskforce States in 2015 to establish the Sustain- Ever-growing awareness
to develop recommendations for inte- able Development Goals incorporates The implementation of action specifi-
grated approaches to avert, minimize issues of migration policy and the role of cally dealing with environmental migra-
and address displacement related to the migrants in development strategies. tion poses a challenge, since it involves
adverse impacts of climate change, and a multidimensional and interdisciplinary
to strengthen the capabilities to combat Environment on the migration field, and falls under the competency
it. The reference to migrants signifies agenda of different political leaders, budgetary
greater awareness and consideration Although the issues of migrants and lines and time frames. However, States
of this issue. The Agreement provides refugees are at the heart of their political are demonstrating increased interest in
a new point of reference and presages concerns, States are curbing the estab- initiatives dealing with the subject, and
greater means to respond to displace- lishment of a system of international include it in numerous policy agendas,
ment and environmental migration. migration governance with the inten- such as those covering development,
In parallel, human mobility has appeared tion of preserving their prerogatives and humanitarian aid, health, employment
on the agenda of the UNCCD. At the their sovereignty in this field. Until now, and human rights. Beyond the moral
twelfth conference of States parties to environmental migration has above all obligation, this increased awareness
the UNCCD in 2015, discussions were been addressed at the national, bilateral allows decision makers to make their
for the first time devoted to migra- and regional levels, but not internation- policy agendas more coherent.
tion and land rehabilitation. The Frame- ally as of yet. At the intergovernmental
work for Disaster Risk Reduction level, States favour non-binding dialogue 3rd
2015–2030, adopted by 187 States fora to deal with the subject. Several such International
UN
in Sendai, Japan, in March 2015, also processes have materialized since 2000: Conference
on Small
takes human mobility into consideration. IOM’s annual International Dialogue on Island States
UN Special
This agreement provides another forum Migration; the Berne Initiative on the Event Regional
towards consultations
achieving the under HFA2
MDGs and process 2030
3rd session high-level Agenda for
of the Global forum High-level Sustainable
Platform for panel on Development
Disaster Risk 4th session Human
Reduction of the Mobility, 3rd World
Global Environment Conference
UN World UN Platform for and Climate on Disaster
Summit on Decade on Disaster at the 105th Risk
MDGs Biodiversity Risk Session of Reduction:
World starts Reduction the IOM Sendai
Conference Agreement High Level Council Framework

on Disaster on the Dialogue on for Disaster
Reduction in Migration IOM and Risk
Transformative UNCCD sign Reduction
Japan: 1st session Agenda and
Hyogo of the Global Development cooperation 2015–2030
UN Millennium Framework Platform for IOM agreement
Summit in Disaster Risk Adoption of on migration Nansen
for Action International
New York and Reduction the Migration and deserti- Initiative
Dialogue on
Millennium UN Crisis fication Global
Migration
Declaration: Humanitarian 1st session of Operational Consultation
UN Summit (N18) Yogyakarta Framework UN Climate
establishment Reform, UN Global
High-Level on the MDGs on Climate declaration Summit Launch of
of MDGs creation of Conference on Forum on Event on the Change,
Migration and on disaster UN state-led
Cluster Biodiversity in Incheon Environ- COP20
UN Development MDGs risk High-level Migrants
Approach Declaration
International European
Gender Plan
mental reduction in Meeting on Lima Call Caught in
Strategy for Bern Development COP8 2nd session The Arab Degradation Asia and National for Climate Crisis
of Action and Migration the Pacific Action
Disaster Initiative: Cooperation UNCCD of the Global strategy for Drought Initiative
Reduction International 10-year COP9 Platform for disaster risk Policy
Global Working
created Migration UN General Strategic Biodiversity Disaster Risk reduction UN COP12
World Assembly Plan and for Reduction 2020 Migration Conference COP19 Group II in Turkey
Management
Launch of Summit on High-Level Framework Development Group joint on Sustainable Warsaw contribution
Agenda COP21
IOM Sustainable Dialogue on (2008–2018) Initiative UNCCD COP16 statement Development International to the 5th
International 3rd IPCC Development: Kyoto International Policy Cancun on climate (Rio +20) Mechanism IPCC Paris: post
Dialogue on Assessment Johannesburg Protocol entry Migration and COP13 Bali COP14 Brief on Adaptation change and for Loss and Assessment 2015
Migration Report Declaration into force Development Action Plan Poznan Migration Framework migration COP18 Doha Damage Report agreement
2000 2001 2002 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Regional policy processes
The number of fora for regional

and inter-regional dialogue has The Climate Vulnerable Forum, 2015
Member
grown over the course of the past
Observer*
15 years. Environmental
Chair
migration features on their (2015–2016)
agenda, demonstrating the fact Former Chair
2009–10 Maldives
that the gravity of the issue has 2010–11 Kiribati
been grasped, as has the EU AFGHANISTAN
2011–13
2013–14
Bangladesh
Costa Rica
pertinence of developing (observer) BHUTAN
NEPAL
responses at the regional level. VIET NAM
PHILIPPINES
KIRIBATI
In migration terms, the regional level SAINT LUCIA BANGLADESH
COSTA RICA BARBADOS MALDIVES
is extremely favourable for collective TUVALU
VANUATU
thought and action, given the fact that it GHANA ETHIOPIA
KENYA TIMOR-LESTE
is at this level that the majority of inter- RWANDA
TANZANIA
national migration takes place. Neigh- MADAGASCAR
bouring countries often share the same

* CVF observers participating formally
challenges and opportunities, be they in one or more of the three key Forums
climatic, economic, social or political. As in 2009, 2010 or 2011
such, it is easier to reach agreements or Migration on the CVF agenda, 2009–2015

CVF side event
to settle on joint policies at regional than at 3rd UN SIDS Conference
First Forum Dhaka
at international level. 2 Sept.
in Malé (Maldives), Declaration
founding 14 Nov. Costa Rica CVF-IOM High Level
of the CVF * Ambo CVF Action Luncheon Debate
Platforms for thought, exchange, 9–10 Nov. Declaration Plan for 2013–2015 at IOM Council
10 Nov. 19 Nov. 26 Nov.
and political influence
Exchanges among States on migra- 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Launch of the Second First Regional UNGA, joint CVF–IOM
tion issues take place within consul- First Climate Climate CVF Meeting: event on migration
tative processes, regional bodies and Tarawa Climate Vulnerability Vulnerability Central America 25 Sept.
Change Conference Monitor Monitor 23–25 April
inter-regional fora, with some focusing on 9–10 Nov. 6 Dec. 26 Sept. Forum
Signature of Memorandum
migration, whereas for others migration Second Climate Vulnerable Forum * of Understanding between CVF events and
Nov. 13–14 IOM and CVF Trust Fund documents
constitutes one topic among others.
7 Aug. mentioning migration
* Migration mentioned at the Forum
The Regional Consultative Processes
Source: CVF (n.d.) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015
(RCPs), which are informal and
non-binding, are one such platform
for dialogue and cooperation devoted
The Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) is climate change effectively and equitably.
to migration. In 2014, the 25 existing a semi-formal and non-exclusive part- The Ministerial Declaration (Dhaka 2011)
Processes in the world consisted of nership of the governments of devel- called for the strengthening of international
18 RCPs and 7 inter-regional forums oping countries which are most exposed dialogue on migration caused by climate
on migration, which were more or less to climate change, and has been oper- change. In 2012, a dedicated Thematic
ating since 2009. Its 2013–2015 action Trust Fund, hosted by UNDP, was created
attached to other regional cooperation
plan has identified the issue of migra- to facilitate the implementation of priority
mechanisms, particularly at the economic tion and displacement as one of the prin- activities for those countries that are most
and commercial level. Certain RCPs are cipal axes to improve the political and legal vulnerable to climate change.
backed by international organizations, frameworks and tools that help to combat
which undertake the duties of a secretariat
and provide technical support or capacity
building assistance (IOM, UNHCR and
the ICMPD provide such support to the international agenda, as was the case Environmental migration on regional
RCPs). These regional processes, despite for environmental migration. They also agendas
being highly diverse in character, influ- act as a relay for the implementation of In regional fora, the link between migra-
ence migration policies – particularly at international decisions at the regional tion and environment is generally estab-
the bilateral level – and act as a spring- level, and contribute to the development lished from five different perspectives:
board for the inclusion of new topics on of sub-regional programmes. migration, climate, security, disaster risk
114 11:00:43.

Climate Change Sustainable Development

Security Disaster Risk Reduction
European Union EC Implementation plan of the

EU strategy for supporting DRR
Migration Regional Summit
in developing countries
2011–2014 (2011)
1. EC Green Paper ‘Adapting
to Climate Change in EC Paper on CC
and International EC Global Approach
Europe–Options for EU
security (2008) to Migration and Number
Action’ (2007)
Mobility (2011)
2. EC Communication
EC Comm. of States 58
‘Maximising the 1
development impact of ‘Post-2015 UN parties
migration’ (2013) Hyogo Framework
3. EC Communication
EC Comm. ‘A decent Life
for all: from vision
for Action on DRR’ Asia-Pacific Regional
Preparatory Meeting for the
Asia 40
‘A Global Partnership for (2013)
to collective action’ (2014) 2 General Assembly
poverty Eradication and High-level Dialogue on
Sustainable Development International Migration and
after 2015’ (2015) 3
EC Comm. ‘The EU's Development (2013)
comprehensive approach
3rd Asia–EU 20
Stockholm EC Comm. Dialogue on labour
‘An EU Strategy to external conflict migration (2014)
Programme
on adaptation and crises’ (2013)
(2009)
to CC’ Niue Declaration 5
EC Working (2013) ASEAN Regional Forum on CC
document ‘Action Seminar on ‘International (2008)
4. Puebla Process -
Plan for Resilience Security Implications of Colombo Process–4th Ministerial
Regional Workshop on
in Crisis Prone Climate-Related Events Consultation for Asian Labour Sending
Temporary Protection Status 11
Countries and Trends (2009) 10 Countries ‘Migration with dignity’ (2011) 10. 18th SAARC Summit
and/or Humanitarian Visas in
2013–2020’ (2013) OSCE Madrid Declaration (2014)
Situations of Disaster (2015)
5. Puebla Process - Meeting of on Environment Bali process– 11. 3rd BIMSTEC Summit
the Regional Consultation and Security (2007) ASEAN Regional Forum Bangkok (2014)
Group on Migration (2013) Seminar on ‘International Declaration (1999)
6. Puebla Process - 4th Security Implications of CC’
Regional Conference on (2010) UNESCAP Forum on
Migration (1999) OAS Resolution 2667
Sustainable Development
on Internally Displaced
Americas Persons (2011) 42nd Pacific Islands
Forum (2011)
(2014)
4
5 6 Arab Strategy
Cartagena +30 7 for DRR
Brazil Declaration and
(2010)
Plan of Action (2014) 8 9
AU Policy Framework for
7. Central American Pastoralists (2010)
Parliament Political
Declaration of Managua on OAS Special Committee
Climate Change (2010) on Migration Issues: 12. Regional Seminar on Internal Displacement
8. Special Declaration on Climate ‘Migrants in Disaster in the SADC Region (2005)
Change at 10th Summit of Situations’ (2009) AU Migration Policy
ALBA States (2010) Africa 13
14 Framework for Africa
(2006)
13. EAC Disaster Risk Reduction and Management
Strategy 2012–2016 (2012)
9. 10th South American 16 14. Inter-State and Intra-Regional Cooperation on
12 15
Conference on Migration - 17 Migration Management in IGAD Region (2008)
Advancing towards a 15. IGAD-RCP meeting on Migration Management
South-American Citizenship 18 in the IGAD Region (2010)
(2010) 16. 4th Meeting of the Regional Committee on
Mixed Migration (in the Horn of Africa) (2014)
4th EU-Africa Summit
17. EAC Climate Change Policy (2011)
(Rabat process) ‘Investing
18. SADC Policy Paper on Climate Change (2012)
in People, Prosperity and
Peace’ (2014)
Comprehensive Africa
Agriculture Development
Programme (2002)
A few examples
of regional policy processes
mentioning migration, environment
and climate change*
*Note: this is a non-exhaustive selection of examples of regional state-led policy
processes mentioning migration in the context of environmental and climate change.
Source: Popp (2014b) © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015 The size of circles is based on the number of member countries for each process
reduction and development. In Africa, through its security dimension. Finally, consultations, technical documents, and
Asia and the Americas, the processes since human security was rooted in the funding for specific programmes. The
specifically dedicated to human mobility 2010 Cancún Adaptation Framework, Asian Development Bank, for its part,
served as pioneers by associating the certain regional processes dealing with has encouraged regional cooperation on
issues of internal displacement, labour global warming and disaster risk reduc- these issues, notably via the organiza-
migration and the movements of tion have also addressed migration. tion of two political consultations in 2011
nomadic populations with the broader in collaboration with IOM. The Nansen
concerns regarding the environment and Supporting regional approaches Initiative has also promoted a regional
climate change. From 2006, the African The European Union supports seven approach: the Protection Agenda that it
Union included in its Migration Policy regional migration dialogues; it initially has proposed at national level was elab-
Framework precise elements dealing focused on the environmental impact of orated via regional consultations, greatly
with environmental degradation and migration flows towards Europe, before involving the RCPs in this process.
natural disasters. In certain fora, such as considering the realities of environmental Finally, for the first time in 2015, the
the OSCE and ASEAN, the prism of secu- mobility in Europe itself. Since 2008, the biennial Global RCP Meeting devoted an
rity and conflicts is used to link migra- European approach has recognized envi- entire session to environmental migra-
tion to environmental issues, proof that ronmental migration as a topic in its own tion – further proof of the importance of
migration still remains widely perceived right, which is the subject of political this topic in all regions of the world.

International organizations
The inclusion of migration on the Change, marked the recognition of this States. Since 2012, this cooperation has
agenda of international theme as a field in its own right. taken the form of an Advisory Group on
organizations has proved to be The relationships between intergovern- Climate Change and Human Mobility,
long and difficult, mirroring both mental organizations are nonetheless which produces technical documents
the complexity of the issue and still marked with a mixture of cooperation and analyses, and organizes joint events.
the interconnectedness of and competition. In spite of the wealth of Since 2014, the organizations concerned
climatic and migratory themes. joint political activity, the interdisciplinary have also adopted a common approach
Yet, it is also an indication of nature of the issues often puts them in with the UN inter-agency Working Group
States’ growing determination to competition with one another, notably on Climate Change and Disaster Risk
engage in concrete activities in with regard to financing. Such competi- Reduction, which further promotes the
this field. tion, however, also serves as a means of integration of human mobility in these
improvement and quality control. fields.
It has taken years and numerous debates
for international organizations to address Conceptualization, international Policy implementation
the issue of environmental migration. dialogue and advocacy Along with the support they provide to
The friction and reticence was partly Intergovernmental actors tasked with States at the political and conceptual
due to the fact that this issue lies on the human mobility, especially IOM and level, international organizations also
boundary of their respective mandates, UNHCR, were the first to introduce this play an important role in the implemen-
in a grey area where the sphere of exper- topic into the arena of international talks tation of solutions on the ground. This is
tise of each organization is not clearly on climate and disaster risk reduction. particularly true in the field of environ-
defined. International organizations are They played a major role in advocacy, in mental migration, where the manage-
created and mandated by States to assist concert with non-governmental organi- ment of internal displacement following a
them with the development, under- zations with shared interests, such as the natural disaster or conflict constitutes an
taking and implementation of policies. NRC, IDMC, the IFRC, CARE, the Munich important assignment.
The emergence of environmental migra- Re Foundation and the United Nations This work is undertaken by different
tion on their agendas is thus indicative of University. UN agencies, IOM and the IFRC, who
States’ willingness to cooperate on the The adoption of the Cancún Adapta- intervene at the behest of States, each
subject. As such, in 2014, the decision tion Framework in 2010 marked a step according to its mandate and espe-
by IOM Member States to create a new forward and gave fresh impetus to inter- cially to its capabilities on the ground,
division within the Organization entitled agency cooperation on migration, based to meet the needs of those displaced.
Migration, Environment, and Climate on advocacy and technical support for The humanitarian assistance provided
32
The work of international organizations on migration, environment and climate change
Institutional publications, side-events and technical submissions to the UNFCCC by the members
of the Advisory Group on Climate Change and Human Mobility: IOM, UNHCR, UNDP, UNU-EHS, ILO/ISSA, NRC/IDMC.
26
One publication One side-event One IO Technical submission
(UNFCCC side events mentioning to UNFCCC

migration, co-organized by IOs)
16
14
13
10
6
4 4 4
3 3 3 3 3
2 2
1 1 1 1
0
Pre-2003 2003 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
COP12 COP13 COP14 COP15 COP16 COP17 COP18 COP19 COP20
Nairobi Bali Poznan Copenhagen Cancun Durban Doha Warsaw Lima
Source: IOM (n.d.) and individual contributions of the members of the Advisory Group on Climate Change and Human Mobility. © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015
116 11:00:43.

The Cluster Approach to humanitarian assistance: key sectors and actors

in international disaster response t a r i a n
n i
a E
m m
u e
H D I S A ST E R r
g
N ESS RE
SP
e
D n
A RE ON c
SE
EP i
PR
e
UNHCR
s
RE
O FA
WH O
&
W
CO
Protection FP
N
TIO
VE
Health Agriculture
I GA
RY
MIT
M
IO
&
Camp
WF
R
HC
Management
P
UN
& Coordination Emergency

Telecommunication
R E CO N
P R EV E N T I O N
STRUCT I ON
MA
M AT I O N
Emergency HUMANITARIAN &

UNHCR & IFRC
Early
NAG EMENT
Shelter
EMERGENCY Recovery
UNDP
RELIEF
FO R
COORDINATOR
IN
n
ldre
Nutrition
Chi
Education
he
t
UN
ve
ICE
Sa
&
F
EF
IC
Sanitation,
UN
Logistics Division of Water

& Hygiene
labour among
W organizations. EF
FP IC
Roles and responsibilities UN
within the key sectors
Sources: CCCM (n.d.), OCHA (n.d.), of the response.
by these agencies is coordinated by crises. It also applies to development, a climate change adaptation strategy.
the IASC, established in 1992, through adaptation and migration planning Between 2000 and 2013, IOM has thus
the so-called Cluster Approach, which projects that are not necessarily subject implemented more than 750 projects
assigns specific responsibilities to to structured cluster organization, representing a wide range of human-
different agencies: for example, IOM such as in the case of aid to displaced itarian, risk reduction and adaptation
and UNHCR share the responsibility for persons. Field activities aim, for example, operational responses, linked to environ-
the coordination and management of to ensure that migration proceeds from mental migration.
camps in the case of natural disasters
(IOM) and conflicts (UNHCR). The IFRC
and UNHCR take the lead on the clus-
ters dealing with shelter and protection
respectively. This system has the advan-
tage of mobilizing all of the agencies,
and responding to every stage of the
migratory cycle (before, during and after
displacement), by providing solutions for
prevention, protection, assistance and
reconstruction.
Coordination among international organ-
izations is not limited to humanitarian Distribution of aid in Guatemala following tropical storm Agatha. Guatemala, 2010. © IOM 2010

Migration and national adaptation
policies
Human mobility is generally their medium-term National Adapta- noted: Bangladesh, Guinea Bissau and
presented as a failure in the face tion Programmes of Action (NAPAs), Mali have adapted their agricultural and
of the irreversible effects of or their more long-term National Adap- fishing practices and infrastructure to
climate change, yet it could, on tation Plans (NAPs). In the majority of limit recourse to migration; Mozambique
the contrary, contribute to cases, migration is viewed through a has put in place disaster-risk practices
adaptation strategies if climate negative prism as a consequence of that are also designed to reduce popula-
policies integrate migration in an climate change that should be avoided. tions’ vulnerability.
overarching approach. For instance, Tuvalu’s NAPA addresses
the issue from a preventive point of Migration as an adaptation strategy
Migration was formally included in view in order to reduce the population Migration is considered as a climate
international climate negotiations via a flow towards urban areas. Other coun- change adaptation strategy in certain
framework text on climate change adap- tries include it in their adaptation plans extreme situations. This is the case for
tation strategies, adopted in Cancún as a precautionary measure, but without small island States who consider the
in 2010. However, few countries have even setting stabilization objectives in relocation of their populations living in
incorporated it in concrete terms into areas with high levels of out-migration. areas subject to environmental stress
their national adaptation strategies, Several exceptions can, however, be as a potential response. Mobility also
Afg
(20
The 2
Mali (2007) mobi
adap
for Pa
Guinea-Bissau While the country’s NAPA (2007)
recognizes mobility as a
(2008) spontaneous adaptation strategy
Haiti (2006) developed by some parts of the
The 2006 NAPA recognizes the

The effects of drought and
salinization on migration and
population, the document focuses
on measures to curb migration
Yemen (2007)
effects of drought on migration, and displacement receive considerable through livelihood diversification. The country’s NAPA
also notes potential future risks for attention in the 2008 NAPA; the (2007) includes a
the population due to increased document proposes adaptation proposal to create new
migration pressure in hazard-prone measures to prevent out-migration. job opportunities to
areas. reduce out-migration
from areas affected by
climate change.
Haiti Dominican Rep.

Ghana (2010)
The 2010 National Climate Change
Adaptation Strategy states that
’migration and urban vulnerability
constitute important dimensions of
climate change in Ghana’.
Sao Tome
and Principe,
(2007)
Peru (2012) The NAPA (2007) makes
Kenya ((2013–2017)
2013–2017)
A National Plan of provisions for the relocation of The National Climate Change
Action on Adaptation specific communities affected by Action Plan (‘Low Carbon

and Mitigation and climate change (fishing Climate Resilient Development
Climate Change communities in Malanza, Santa Pathway’) for 2013–2017 calls
proposed by the Catarina and Sundy exposed to for further research on
Ministry of Bolivia (2008)
Bolivia (2008) floods) so as to prevent forced migration as ‘an adjustment or
Environment in 2010 migration in the future. coping mechanism’ for climate
The 2008 National Mechanism for
includes one initiative change, as well as on possible
Adaptation to Climate Change
to reduce vulnerability alternatives to migration.
includes two adaptation measures Mauritius
and forced migration.
related to migration, including
rural–urban migration planning, and
further research on the causes of
United Republic of
migration to inform future settlement Tanzania (2007)
planning.
The 2007 NAPA recognizes the Mozambique (2008)
threats that coastal erosion and The NAPA (2008) mentions the
sea level rise pose to social costs, such as separation of
settlements in coastal areas, families, related to migration
and proposes relocation of associated with drought and
vulnerable communities as a desertification. The document also
potential adaptation measure. includes provisions for the
Sources: IOM (n.d., 2014), UNFCCC (n.d.), Warner et al. (2014) resettlement of communities from
© IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Sciences Po, 2015 flood – and cyclone-prone areas.
118
11:00:43.

becomes an adaptation strategy in its the acquisition of capabilities, expertise lack of funding and by the impermea-
own right for countries that are seeking and new skills that benefit the commu- bility of policies that only rarely deal with
to reduce demographic tensions and to nities of origin. migration, adaptation or development
lessen pressure on natural resources Optimizing the positive potential of issues in a cross-referencing fashion.
in areas with fragile ecosystems. It is migration remains the major challenge To remedy this, Bangladesh, Colombia,
extremely rare, however, that mobility for public policies that perceive (internal Ecuador, Haiti, Brazil, the Dominican
is dealt with from the standpoint of the or international) migration as an adap- Republic and Kenya have organized
advantages and benefits that it can tation strategy. NAPs are a favoured training workshops bringing together
provide concerning adaptation, resil- framework for linking adaptation objec- scientists, political decision makers and
ience and development, for example tives to migratory challenges and oppor- members of civil society. But concrete
when it results in investment by migrants tunities, but the countries that have tools to better combine mobility and
and diasporas into ecological practices, gone down this path are confronted adaptation are yet to be conceived, such
through remittances channelled into with the lack of data attesting to the as research programmes, guidelines for
adaptation projects – notably land reha- potential of migration in the context of integrating migration into NAPs, training
bilitation and reforestation – or through climate change, and are limited by the modules and political dialogue.
Migration in adaptation policies

Policy instruments mentioning migration, displacement or relocation:
National Adaptation Programme of Action
Afghanistan Other national climate change adaptation policies and plans
(2009)
The 2009 NAPA notes that Capacity building on migration and adaptation:
mobility has facilitated
adaptation to climate change MECLEP activities* IOM National training IOM Regional training
for Pashtun nomads.
Nepal (2010)
(2010)
The 2010 NAPA mentions * EU-funded ’Migration, Environment and Climate Change:
rural–urban migration already Evidence for Policy’ Project including research, policy formulation
occurring due to climate change, and government capacity building activities on environmental
migration and adaptation in six countries.
and points to related challenges in
terms of urban planning.
Marshall Islands
Micronesia (2013) (2011)
The measures under the 2013 The 2011 National Climate Change
Policy Framework considers
Bangladesh Nation Wide Integrated
Disaster Risk Management migration as a measure of last
((2005–2009)
2005–2009) and Climate Change Policy resort that would threaten the
focus on preventing migration country’s cultural legacy.
The 2005 NAPA, Viet Nam
and managing displacement. Kiribati (2007)
updated in 2009, sets
Yet, the document also notes Population and resettlement are
out measures to reduce
in the preamble ‘the role that identified as one of the eight key focal
migration from rural
migration has played, and will areas of the national climate change
areas to cities.
continue to play as an adaptation strategy as set out in the
adaptation strategy to a Marshall 2007 NAPA.
Micronesia
changing environment’.
Maldives (2008) Cook Islands
Kiribati
The 2008 NAPA builds on the (2011–15)
government’s Safer Island Strategy
The Joint National Action
developed following the 2004 Tuvalu
tsunami to reorganize settlements
Solomon Islands Plan for Disaster Risk
Management and Climate

and resettle more vulnerable
Change Adaptation for
communities to safer, larger and
2011–2015 mentions
better protected islands. Samoa relocation of communities
Papua Vanuatu at risk as a preventive
measure.
New Guinea Fiji Tonga
ius
((2013)
2013) Fiji (2012)
Resettlement is mentioned
among strategies for disaster The 2012 National Climate Cook Islands
management and community Change Policy analyses the
development in the 2014 impacts of climate change on
National Climate Compatible urban development as a result
Development Management of rural–urban migration.
Policy. The Policy also Tuvalu (2007–2012)
promotes an integrated
cross-sectoral approach to Tonga (2010–2015) The country’s NAPA (2007) considers
migration and resettlement as an adaptation
climate change adaptation measure of last resort, ‘should the worst
A Joint National Action Plan on
through coordination of key case scenario occur’. Tuvalu’s 2012 Climate
Climate Change Adaptation and
sectors, including resource Change Policy (Te Kaniva) and the
Disaster Risk Management for
management, infrastructure 2012–2016 National Strategic Action Plan
2010–2015 sets out concrete and
and migration planning, for Climate Change and Disaster Risk
detailed relocation options for
among others. Management mention resettlement plans
several types of hazard (sea-level
rise, heavy rainfall, storm surges and and application for resident visas in New
tsunamis). Zealand as strategies to guarantee security
for Tuvaluans affected by climate change.

Linking mobility and disaster
management
Managed migration can be an the exposure of communities to disas- ones set up in India or the Caribbean
effective disaster risk reduction ters, for example in Cambodia, Maldives, can help to support livelihoods in times
strategy. A number of States and Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Uruguay. of crisis, or to accelerate reconstruc-
local actors have already adopted tion, thus contributing to preventing
successful measures, which serve Building long-term resilience displacement or facilitating the return of
as inspiring examples. Improved land-use, better construction displaced populations.
standards, safer housing and infrastruc- The creation of safe legal migration
Disaster risk can be managed through ture, or economic and social welfare channels, temporary labour programmes
a number of mobility-based solutions. programmes improving living stand- or financial schemes to support migra-
Planning evacuations and emergency ards can all help increase the resil- tion can also contribute to ensuring long-
response ahead can help to save lives ience of communities and reduce the term security for the most vulnerable
and prevent forced displacement: risk risk of displacement following disas- populations, including through the help
and vulnerability assessments, improved ters. The UNISDR ‘Making Cities Resil- they can receive from migrant relatives
early-warning mechanisms, communi- ient’ campaign provides examples of Sweden
ty-based preparedness programmes and practices in urban planning and disaster Aliens Act, 2005, allows migrants
evacuation plans are becoming regular risk reduction that build the resilience displaced by environmental disasters to
be eligible for protection
components of disaster preparedness in of vulnerable urban dwellers (including
many countries guided by international migrants). Insurance systems like the
standards. Some governments have also EU
The 2001 Temporary Protection
engaged in planned relocation to reduce Directive sets out minimum
standards for giving temporary
protection in the event of a mass
influx of displaced persons in the
United States EU, which could be, in some
Immigration and Nationality Act, 1990, cases, applied to displacement
authorizes temporary protected status resulting from disasters
to aliens of designated countries, which
can include countries affected by natural
disasters
CARICOM
Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance
Facility, 2007: the first regional insurance
Haiti instrument providing immediate relief funds
to participating governments to support
Zero-fee policy on initial response to a disaster
remittance transfers
adopted by operators
following 2010 earthquake Trinidad and Tobago
Development of Standard Operation
Colombia
Procedures and a plan of action in
disaster preparedness, to improve
Kenya
management of potential mass The Prevention, Protection and
The Management of Temporary migration flows resulting from Assistance to Internally Displaced
Shelters Information System helps
authorities assess and monitor the
emergencies Ghana Persons and Affected Communities
Act, 2012, addresses
needs of displaced populations in The Government is working on establishing a National disaster-induced displacement
temporary shelters. A National Risk Observatory to improve risk mapping, establish
Disaster Database helps assess the early warning systems for floods and droughts, and
impacts of disasters on people, prepare local communities, to reduce the risk of forced
better understand patterns, and displacement following disasters
therefore prepare for future
disasters to limit displacement
Uruguay Angola
The National Relocation Plan Standard Operational Procedures for the
supports the sustainable Enforcement of the ‘Norms on the
resettlement of communities Resettlement of Displaced Populations’,
from flood-prone areas 2002, address disaster-induced displacement
Zimbabwe
Provision of land by the government
and relocation of communities affected
Good mobility-related practices for disaster management by floods in 2008
This is a non-exhaustive selection of examples of good practices.
Protection of nationals abroad Facilitated return for relatives of victims of disaster

Facilitated entry to nationals of countries affected by disaster Resettlement as durable solution
Assistance to foreign nationals displaced internally Insurance or financial mechanism to help recovery / prevent displacement
120
11:00:43.

or diaspora communities. Measures Azerbaijan, Burundi, Iraq, Kenya, Liberia, provided specific support to migrant
facilitating diasporas’ support such as Nepal, Philippines, Sierra Leone, Sudan, workers displaced on their territory
reduced costs of remittances or incen- Turkey or Uganda, have thus transposed following a disaster, through language
tives for investment in risk reduction or the UN Guiding Principles on Internal assistance, or facilitated contact with
relief programmes have proved to be Displacement into national law, and relatives back home. Others give ad
effective in the aftermath of the 2004 included provisions for the protection of hoc protection to migrants from coun-
Indian Ocean tsunami. people displaced by natural disasters. tries affected by natural disasters, either
Other measures focus on assisting temporary (TPS in the USA or the
Helping the displaced displaced foreign nationals in precar- Temporary Protection Directive in the
When disasters cause displacement, ious situations due to language or socio- EU), or permanent (Sweden, Finland
the first priority must be to ensure that economic barriers. Countries senders and Denmark). South Korea gave priority
people are safe and able to meet their of migrant workers, such as Nepal, to applicants for employment permits
basic needs. Disaster management Bangladesh or the Philippines, have coming from areas affected by the 2004
response must integrate mobility-related special provisions for the protection of Indian Ocean tsunami.
concerns in order to provide the appro- their nationals abroad in times of crisis,
priate assistance to affected individ- including consular assistance or help A recipe for success
uals. Some States like Angola, Armenia, with repatriation. Thailand or Japan have These examples show how the
management of mobility and disaster
Armenia risk management can be effectively
The 1998 Republic of Armenia Law on South Korea combined to assist vulnerable commu-
Population Protection in Emergency
Situations addresses disaster-induced Employment Permit priority
displacement given to applicants from areas nities. While not all practices can be
affected by the 2004 Indian replicated widely, there is scope for
Nepal Ocean tsunami
Iraq Nepal Foreign Employment
developing new tailored solutions
National Policy on
Act, 2007: provision to combining disaster risk reduction,
repatriate nationals working
Displacement, 2008, abroad in countries affected sustainable development and urban
takes into consideration by disaster
the Guiding Principles planning, and climate change adapta-
on Internal Displacement
tion, drawing on the joint expertise of the
Bangladesh
2013 Overseas Employment and
public, private and academic sectors.
Migration Act ensures protection and
assistance to Bangladeshi migrant
workers caught in a crisis abroad
Japan
Facilitated entry visas for
family members to visit
victims of 2011 tsunami
Thailand trapped in Japan
Flood Relief and Assistance Center for Migrant
Workers established by the government to
provide relief aid to migrant workers displaced
India in Thailand following the 2011 floods
Mahatma Gandhi
National Rural
Employment Guarantee
Act, 2005: provision for
Philippines
insurance for farmers in The Overseas Workers Welfare
case of drought Administration has the duty to
repatriate workers in cases of natural
or human-made disasters
Samoa
Zero-fee policy on
remittance transfers
adopted by operators
Indonesia following 2009 tsunami
Maldives Transfer of remittances facilitated through the

creation of a special relief account and through
Safer Island provision of information to diaspora on existing
Programme–Resilient Island Cambodia transfer mechanisms to help recovery following the
2004 Indian Ocean tsunami
Planning since 2009: official
strategy for territorial Temporary or permanent
reorganization to protect community-led relocation of
communities from disasters, villages to higher grounds in
including through response to floods
resettlement
New Zealand and Samoa
Bilateral agreement between New Zealand and
Samoa following 2009 tsunami allowing
we Mozambique Samoan migrants to travel home temporarily to
ment assist their relatives
Resettlement programme
ected
following 2008 floods
2008
Incentives for remittances Sources: Arnold et al. (2014), Brookings Institution (n.d.), Duvat and Magnan (2014),
IOM (2009, 2012), Le De et al. (2015), Naik et al. (2007), World Bank (2008)
DRM/DRR capacity building to limit displacement © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015
Legislation for protection of IDPs

Linking migration, adaptation and
development
Migration policies have a key role to stay put while encouraging others migration through land rehabilitation, irri-
to play in maximizing the to migrate. In reality, these contextual gation, reforestation, changes in agricul-
potential of migration as a measures allow for overarching manage- tural methods, local development, and
development and climate change ment of the migration cycle, which aims the creation of more ecological jobs and
adaptation strategy. Certain to both limit forced migration and facili- companies that could encourage people
States have already undertaken tate voluntary departure. In other words, to stay.
innovative initiatives, but such allowing people to choose whether they
initiatives are still all too rare. emigrate or not. Facilitating migration
Thus, paradoxically, any thinking on Another advantage of a mindset that
The equation linking the effects of human mobility also supposes consider- takes the migration–adaptation duality
climate change to migration policies and ation of the means of preventing forced into account is the fact that populations
development and adaptation strategies mobility. By reducing the vulnerability will look to mobility in response to the
contains many complex variables, hence of populations living in at-risk zones, degradation of their environment and
the fact that such a correlation can result forced displacement from environmental this mobility will have positive repercus-
in the implementation of measures that shocks can be limited. This is the case sions, encouraging the adoption at both
at first sight may seem contradictory, for community stabilization programmes local and international level of meas-
such as those that help certain people implemented in zones with high levels of ures designed to facilitate migration, to
Mexico
‘3x1 para Migrantes’ matching Spain, Colombia
funds plan encouraging nationals
living abroad to send money to Bilateral Temporary and Circular Labour
support development and Migration Scheme between Colombia and
environmental initiatives Spain, facilitating labour migration to Spain
for communities affected by environmental
disasters in Colombia, as a livelihood
diversification strategy
Senegal
Promoting youth employment in the
environmental sector in Senegal to
improve the management of
environmental resources and prevent
out-migration
Guatemala
Reforestation and biodiversity conservation
programmes conducted by the government together
with local communities help to ensure sustainable ECOWAS
use of resources in rural areas and reduce rural ECOWAS International Transhumance
out-migration Certificate facilitating cross-border
movements for pastoralists and
guaranteeing respect of rights of
Colombia non-resident herders
Government capacity building

through training and policy
development to address mobility in West Africa
the context of climate change (Burkina Faso, Niger, Senegal)
Development of financial incentives to attract
Peru diaspora investment into sustainable land
management initiatives
The Law of Economic and Social
Reintegration for the Returned Migrant
provides incentives to attract its
diaspora to return and invest in the African Union
country, through tax exemptions,
AU Policy Framework on
scholarships and other social benefits
Pastoralism in Africa, 2010,
Brazil supporting pastoralist
cross-border mobility as key
Water harvesting and adaptation practice
redistribution programme in
the north-east to curb
deforestation and provide an
alternative to out-migration
Uruguay
The five-year National Housing Plan ensures safe and durable
housing in urban and semi-urban areas, and gives priority to
Sources: ADB (2012), Duvat and Magnan (2014), IOM (n.d., 2009a, 2009b, 2012, 2013),
households forced to leave areas at risk of flooding. A National
Relocation Plan ensures access to social protection and Maclellan (2012), Schrepfer and Caterina (2014)
facilitated access to jobs for relocated households © IOM (Mokhnacheva, Ionesco), Gemenne, Boissière, 2015
122
11:00:43.

better organize it and to make it more and between New Zealand and Tuvalu, and economic environments that
respectful of human rights. This can Tonga and Kiribati. Other legal channels promote the positive impacts of migra-
lead, for example, to the opening up of of internal migration integrating mobility tion on their communities of origin.
regular international migration chan- as a form of adaptation could encourage Overall, however, the governments of
nels, particularly for work via tempo- the planned relocation of populations both countries of origin and destination
rary or seasonal migration agreements, in high-risk zones to new locations, remain reluctant to promote policies that
circular mobility frameworks, specific providing that they are accompanied by facilitate migration and remittances, even
visa systems, etc. These flows can be social, economic and professional inte- though such policies could maximize the
underpinned by special bilateral agree- gration policies for those relocated. potential of migrants, diasporas and their
ments between countries, such as those Finally, States, through public policies, communities in the fight against climate
that exist between Colombia and Spain, can create legal, financial, administrative change.
Good mobility-related practices for adaptation and development

Facilitated mobility
Natural resources management (prevent out-migration)
Harnessing migration potential
Building local resilience (to prevent displacement)
Capacity building for local government
Azerbaijan Relocation
Reintroduction of traditional
irrigation system to support local This is a non-exhaustive selection of examples of good practices.
agriculture in a context of drought,
and prevent out-migration
India–Nepal
The 1950 Indo–Nepal Treaty of Peace and
Friendship allows visa and passport free entry to
India for the citizens of Nepal, including for work.
This arrangement has benefitted people living in
environmentally vulnerable regions in Nepal, who
could access employment in India
Egypt Philippines
National assessment to identify The Philippine National Bank has created
potential impacts of sea-level rise over-the-counter and door-to-door services that
on migration, and national allow families to directly receive cash from overseas
strategies to respond to the without an account or bank card, thus facilitating
challenge access to remittances for isolated rural households
Bangladesh with limited financial literacy
2010 Policy dialogue on
environment, climate change and
migration, bringing together the
government, civil society and Kiribati
development partners
2012 ‘Migration with Dignity’ strategy
aiming to improve language,
Kenya workplace skills and qualifications of
Kiribati citizens to facilitate their
Building refugee and host
access to international labour markets
communities’ resilience to
climate change in the arid
and semi-arid parts of the
country Timor Leste
Strengthening community resilience
and adaptation capacity as part of a
broader national development plan
Mauritius
Capacity building of national
New Zealand, Tuvalu,
institutions to address the Tonga, Kiribati
effects of climate change on
Pacific Access Category, 2001:
migration
Regional agreement that allows a set
number of citizens from Kiribati,
Tuvalu and Tonga, where fewer work
Madagascar opportunities exist, to permanently
migrate to New Zealand and obtain a
Voluntary relocation of
communities affected by
Australia residence permit if they have a job
offer
cyclones, flooding and erosion The 2012 Pacific Seasonal Workers Pilot
Scheme facilitates seasonal migration of
workers from Pacific island countries and
Timor-Leste to work in Australia’s horticulture
industry, allowing poorer workers from Pacific
islands to diversify their livelihoods

Glossary
Adapted from the Glossary on Migra- that alters the composition of the global Environmental degradation
tion (IOM, 2007), Glossary on Migration atmosphere and which is in addition to
‘The reduction of the capacity of the envi-
2nd Edition (IOM, 2011), and the Migra- other natural climate variability that has
ronment to meet social and ecological
tion, Environment and Climate Change: been observed over comparable time
objectives and needs … Degradation of
Evidence for Policy (MECLEP) Glossary periods.’
the environment can alter the frequency
(IOM, 2014). Please refer to these publi-
and intensity of natural hazards and
cations for complete references.
increase the vulnerability of communi-
d ties. The types of human-induced degra-
dation are varied and include land misuse,
a Diaspora
soil erosion and loss, desertification,
wildland fires, loss of biodiversity, defo-
Diasporas are broadly defined as indivi- restation, mangrove destruction, land,
Adaptation (linked to migration) duals and members or networks, asso- water and air pollution, climate change,
‘In human systems, the process of adjust- ciations and communities, who have sea level rise and ozone depletion.’
ment to actual or expected climate and left their country of origin, but maintain
its effects, in order to moderate harm or links with their homelands. This concept Environmental migrant
exploit beneficial opportunities’. covers more settled expatriate commu- ‘Environmental migrants are persons or
nities, migrant workers based abroad groups of persons who, predominantly
‘Migration and mobility are adaptation
temporarily, expatriates with the natio- for reasons of sudden or progressive
strategies in all regions of the world that
nality of the host country, dual nationals, change in the environment that adver-
experience climate variability.’ Adaptation
and second-/third-generation migrants. sely affects their lives or living conditions,
in this context of mobility is understood in
broad terms, so as to include forced and are obliged to leave their habitual homes,
voluntary migration, internal and cross- Disaster or choose to do so, either temporarily or
border migration, positive and negative ‘A serious disruption of the functioning permanently, and who move either within
impacts of environmental degradation of a community or a society involving their country or abroad.’
and climate change on migration, displa- widespread human, material, economic
cement and planned relocation. Adapting or environmental losses and impacts, Evacuation
to broader environmental events, such which exceeds the ability of the affected Evacuation is the rapid movement of
as natural disasters, including geophy- community or society to cope using its people away from the immediate threat
sical events such as earthquakes and own resources.’ or impact of a disaster to a safer place of
tsunamis, and human-made disasters is shelter. It is commonly characterized by
included in the definition. Disaster risk reduction a short time frame, from hours to weeks,
‘The concept and practice of reducing within which emergency procedures
Adaptive capacity need to be enacted in order to save lives
disaster risks through systematic efforts
‘[A]daptive capacity refers to the ability to to analyse and manage the causal factors and minimize exposure to harm. Evacua-
anticipate and transform structure, func- of disasters, including through reduced tions may be mandatory (ordered and
tioning, or organization to better survive exposure to hazards, lessened vulnera- directed by authorities), advised (faci-
hazards.’ bility of people and property, wise mana- litated by authorities) or spontaneous
gement of land and the environment, (self-evacuation of people).
and improved preparedness for adverse
c events.’ Exposure
‘The presence of people, livelihoods,
Durable solution
species or ecosystems, environmental

Capacity building ‘Any means by which the situation of services and resources, infrastructure,
Building capacity of governments refugees [and IDPs] can be satisfacto- or economic, social, or cultural assets in
and civil society by increasing their rily and permanently resolved to enable places that could be adversely affected’
knowledge and enhancing their skills. them to lead normal lives. Traditionally by environmental and climate change
Capacity building can take the form of this involves voluntary repatriation, local impacts.
substantive direct project design and integration or resettlement.’
implementation with a partner govern-
ment, training opportunities, or in other
f
circumstances the facilitation of a bila-
teral or multilateral agenda for dialogue e
development put in place by concerned Forced displacement
authorities. In all cases, capacity building Environmental change ‘In a more general sense, forced displa-
aims to build towards generally accepted
‘[C]hanges in the physical and biogeo- cement – or displacement – is the invo-
benchmarks of management practices.
chemical environment, over a large scale, luntary movement, individually or
either caused naturally or influenced by collectively, of persons from their country
Climate change human activities’ (including industrial or community, notably for reasons of
‘[A] change of climate which is attributed accidents), either through fast-onset or armed conflict, civil unrest, or natural or
directly or indirectly to human activity slow-onset events. man-made catastrophes.’
124 11:00:43.

Glossary
h with in the face of hazards; what impacts

they suffer from such hazards; and how
and seeking opportunities for their natio-
nals abroad.’
effectively they recover.’
Human rights Migration crisis
Crises with migratory dimensions. ‘[T]
m
Those liberties and benefits based
on human dignity which, by accepted erm that describes the complex and
contemporary values, all human beings often large-scale migration flows and
should be able to claim ‘as of right’ in the mobility patterns caused by a crisis which
society in which they live. These rights
Migration typically involve significant vulnerabilities
are contained in the International Bill of ‘The movement of a person or a group for individuals and affected communi-
Rights, comprising the Universal Decla- of persons, either across an international ties and generate acute and longer-term
ration of Human Rights, 1948, the Inter- border, or within a State. It is a population migration management challenges. A
national Covenant on Economic, Social movement, encompassing any kind of migration crisis may be sudden or slow
and Cultural Rights, and the International movement of people, whatever its length, in onset, can have natural or man-made
Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, composition and causes; it includes causes, and can take place internally or
1966 and have been developed by other migration of refugees, displaced persons, across borders.’
treaties from this core (e.g. The Conven- economic migrants, and persons moving
tion on the Protection of All Migrant for other purposes, including family Migration governance
Workers and Members of Their Families, reunification.’
1990). ‘System of institutions, legal frameworks,
Forced migration mechanisms and practices aimed at
regulating migration and protecting
Human security ‘A migratory movement in which an
element of coercion exists, including migrants. Used almost synonymously
Concept concerned with the secu- with the term ‘migration management’,
threats to life and livelihood, whether
rity of individuals which promotes the although migration management is also
arising from natural or man-made causes
protection of individuals’ physical safety, sometimes used to refer to the narrow
(e.g. movements of refugees and inter-
economic and social well-being, human act of regulating cross-border movement
nally displaced persons as well as people
dignity, and human rights. at the state level.’
displaced by natural or environmental
disasters, chemical or nuclear disasters,
famine, or development projects).’ Migration management
i Internal migration
‘A term used to encompass numerous
governmental functions within a national
‘A movement of people from one area system for the orderly and humane mana-
Internally displaced persons (IDPs) of a country to another area of the same gement for cross-border migration, parti-
‘[P]ersons or groups of persons who country for the purpose or with the effect cularly managing the entry and presence
have been forced or obliged to flee or of establishing a new residence. This type of foreigners within the borders of the
to leave their homes or places of habi- of migration may be temporary or perma- State and the protection of refugees and
tual residence, in particular as a result nent. Internal migrants move but remain others in need of protection. It refers to
of or in order to avoid the effects of within their country of origin (such as in a planned approach to the development
armed conflict, situations of generalized rural to urban migration).’
of policy, legislative and administrative
violence, violations of human rights or responses to key migration issues.’
International migration
natural or human-made disasters, and
who have not crossed an internationally ‘[A]n international migrant is … any
Mixed migration flows
person who changes his or her country of
recognized State border.’

“usual residence”, and crosses an inter- ‘Complex migratory population move-
national border. International migration ments that include refugees, asylum-see-
l
can be long-term (for a period of at least kers, economic migrants and other
a year) or short-term (for a period of at migrants, as opposed to migratory popu-
least 3 months but less than a year). This lation movements that consist entirely of
term does not apply to cases where the one category of migrants.’
Livelihood movement to that country is for purposes
‘At the individual and household levels, of recreation, holiday, visit to friends and
vulnerability and resilience depend
largely on people’s livelihoods. Liveli-
relatives, business, medical treatment or
religious pilgrimage.’ n
hoods comprise the capabilities, material
and social assets, and activities required Labour migration
Natural hazard
to sustain a means of living. Livelihood ‘Movement of persons from one State
options depend on available [human, to another, or within their own country ‘Natural process or phenomenon that
social and financial] capital and on the of residence, for the purpose of employ- may cause loss of life, injury or other
[socio-economic, natural] and political ment. Labour migration is addressed by health impacts, property damage, loss
context in which people live. They deter- most States in their migration laws. In of livelihoods and services, social and
mine how people occupy and use their addition, some States take an active role economic disruption, or environmental
environment; what options they are faced in regulating outward labour migration damage.’

Non-refoulement
The principle of non-refoulement prohi-
r Resettlement
‘The relocation and integration of
bits States from extraditing, depor- people (refugees, internally displaced
ting, expelling or otherwise returning Refugee persons, etc.) into another geographical
a person to a country where his or her ‘A person who, owing to a well-founded area and environment, usually in a
life or freedom would be threatened, third country’. The focus can be on the
fear of persecution for reasons of race,
or where there are substantial grounds individual, not necessarily communities
religion, nationality, membership of
for believing that he or she would risk as in relocation. In the context of
a particular social group or political
being subjected to torture or other cruel, environmental and climate change, the
opinions, is outside the country of his
inhuman and degrading treatment or movement of individuals or communities
nationality and is unable or, owing to
punishment, or would be in danger of to a designated site. ‘In the refugee
such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of
being subjected to enforced disappea- context, the transfer of refugees from
the protection of that country’ (Art. 1(A)
rance, or of suffering another irreparable the country in which they have sought
(2), Convention relating to the Status of refuge to another State that has agreed
harm. Refugees 1951 as modified by the 1967 to admit them. The refugees will usually
Protocol). be granted asylum or some other form
of long-term resident rights and, in
p Relocation many cases, will have the opportunity to
become naturalized.’
Permanent voluntary migration, with an
emphasis on re-building livelihoods in
Pastoralism Forced resettlement/relocation
another place. The World Bank defines
‘A livelihood strategy based on moving it as ‘a process whereby a community’s ‘Involuntary transfer of individuals or
livestock to seasonal pastures primarily housing, assets, and public infrastructure groups within the jurisdiction of a State
in order to convert grasses, forbs, tree- are rebuilt in another location’. Others away from their normal residence as part
leaves, or crop residues into human food. have emphasized other dimensions in of a government policy.’
The search for feed is, however, not the defining relocation as the ‘permanent
only reason for mobility; people and lives- (or long-term) movement of a commu- Resilience
tock may move to avoid various natural nity (or a significant part of it) from one ‘The ability of a system and its
and/or social hazards, to avoid competi- location to another, in which important component parts to anticipate, absorb,
tion with others, or to seek more favou- characteristics of the original commu- accommodate, or recover from the
rable conditions. Pastoralism can also be nity, including its social structures, legal effects of a hazardous event in a timely
thought of as a strategy that is shaped and political systems, cultural characte- and efficient manner, including through
by both social and ecological factors ristics and worldviews are retained: the ensuring the preservation, restoration,
concerning uncertainty and variability of community stays together at the desti- or improvement of its essential basic
precipitation, and low and unpredictable nation in a social form that is similar to structures and functions.’
productivity of terrestrial ecosystems.’ the community of origin’.
Risk
Pastoralist displacement Planned relocation: categories of
‘The potential for consequences where
planned relocation in the context of something of human value (including
‘Internally displaced pastoralists are
persons or communities who have climate change humans themselves) is at stake and
lost access to their habitual pastoral ‘There are several different sub-catego- where the outcome is uncertain. Risk
living space as a result of or in order to ries of people who may need to be relo- is often represented as probability of
avoid the impacts of conflict, violence, cated as a result of the effects of climate occurrence of hazardous events or
human rights violations, cattle rust- change, including: trends multiplied by the consequences if
ling, natural or human-made disasters, these events occur.’
- people who need to be relocated from
or similar sudden-onset events, as a areas prone to sudden-onset natural
result of drought, environmental degra- disasters which are increasing in severity
dation or similar slow-onset processes,
due to direct intervention by state or
and intensity as a result of climate
change (e.g. flood areas);
s
private actors, or due to a combination,
sequence or accumulation of any of the -

people who need to be relocated Smuggling
aforementioned causes, and who have because their livelihoods are threatened
by slow-onset effects of climate change ‘The procurement, in order to obtain,
not crossed an internationally recognised directly or indirectly, a financial or other
state border.’ (e.g. increasing drought frequency,
salinization of water resulting from sea material benefit, of the illegal entry of a
level rise); person into a State Party of which the
Protection person is not a national or a permanent
‘The concept of protection encompasses -
people who need to be relocated resident’ (Art. 3(a), UN Protocol
all activities aimed at ensuring full respect because their lands are needed for Against the Smuggling of Migrants by
for the rights of the individual in accor- mitigation measures (e.g. expansion of Land, Sea and Air, supplementing the
dance with the letter and the spirit of the forests as carbon sinks) or adaptation United Nations Convention against
relevant bodies of law, i.e. human rights projects (e.g. water reservoirs); and Transnational Organized Crime, 2000).
law, international humanitarian law and people who need to be relocated
- Smuggling, contrary to trafficking, does
refugee law. Human rights and humani- because their country or parts of their not require an element of exploitation,
coercion or violation of human rights.
tarian organizations must conduct these country could become unsuitable for
activities in an impartial manner (not on habitation or supporting livelihoods
the basis of race, national or ethnic origin, related to the negative effects of climate Stateless person
language or gender)’ (Inter-Agency change (e.g. small island States facing A person who is not considered a national
Standing Committee). sea-level rise).’ by any state under the operation of its
126 11:00:43.

Glossary
law (Art. 1, United Nations Convention a position of vulnerability or of the giving vulnerable to environmental shocks
Relating to the Status of Stateless or receiving of payments or benefits and impoverishment.’ This applies in
Persons, 1954). As such, a stateless to achieve the consent of a person particular to poorer households who
person lacks those rights attributable to having control over another person, for may not have the resources to move
nationality: the diplomatic protection of a the purpose of exploitation’ (Art. 3(a), and whose livelihoods are affected by
state, the inherent right of sojourn in the UN Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and environmental change.
state of residence and the right to return Punish Trafficking in Persons, Especially
in case s/he travels. Women and Children, Supplementing
the UN Convention against Transnational
Organized Crime, 2000). Trafficking in v
t persons can take place within the borders
of one State or may have a transnational Vulnerability
character.
‘The propensity or predisposition to
Trafficking in persons be adversely affected. Vulnerability
Trapped populations encompasses a variety of concepts
‘The recruitment, transportation, transfer,
harbouring or receipt of persons, by ‘[P]opulations who do not migrate, yet including sensitivity or susceptibility to
means of the threat or use of force or other are situated in areas under threat … at harm and lack of capacity to cope and
forms of coercion, of abduction, of fraud, risk of becoming “trapped” [or having adapt.’
of deception, of the abuse of power or of to stay behind], where they will be more

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and Recovery at the World Bank. Greenbacks into greenery. Kathmandu An Overview. In: Remittance Markets in
Post, 20 September. Retrieved from Africa (S. Mohapatra and D. Ratha eds.).
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Development Institute. Retrieved from Brief, 21. Retrieved from the World
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and Red Crescent Societies. A. Halimanjaya and B. Welham. (2013). Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and
Mobilising international climate finance: Building Resilience. New York, United
Stern, N. (2007). The Economics of Climate lessons from the fast-start finance
Change: The Stern Review. Cambridge, Nations Development Programme.
period. Fast-Start Finance Project and
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tion aux changements climatiques dans Development Institute website: www. ment climatique [Adaptation to climate
les pays en développement [Costs of odi.org/publications/7987-mobilis- change]. Paris, Éditions La Découverte.
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Net Programme. Addis Ababa, World (2014). Architecture du financement worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/
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148 17:50:06.

Index
Index
adaptation 2, 13, 26, 36, 50–51, 53, 74, at-risk areas 14, 29, 39, 71, 78, 122 future prospects 37; gender, migration
76, 77, 91, 96, 98, 124; adaptation- and 90–91; health challenges of 87;
related international public flows (2013) Australasia 61 indigenous rights and impact of 87;
102; bilateral adaptation-related funding Bangladesh 53, 78–9, 91, 121, 123 international organizations and 116–17;
(2010-12) 103; Cancún Adaptation land grabbing and 57; legal frameworks
Framework 6, 95, 115, 116; challenges barriers 20, 48, 51, 61, 80, 86, 87, 88, 121 in context of 108–9, 110–11; limitation
for 72; cost of environmental migration biodiversity loss 46–9, 58–63, 87 of loss and damage linked to 95;
and 100–101; Deltas, Vulnerability livelihoods, regional impacts on 60, 61,
and Climate Change 2012: Migration Cancún Adaptation Framework 6, 95, 115, 63; mass displacement, management
and Adaptation’ (DECCMA) 79, 116 of 84–5; migration strategies and 72;
128; development and adaptation, mitigation of 37; national adaptation
capacity building 89, 95, 104, 114, 119,
linking migration with 122–3; disaster policies 118–19; pastoral migration
122, 123, 124
management, linking mobility with 121; and 73; policy processes and 112–13,
funding action and 104–5; international challenges 27, 28, 34, 37, 47, 48, 49, 51, 114–15; positive effects of 30; regional
agendas and 112–13; international 63, 75, 91, 95, 128–9; circular migration impacts of 58–63; relocation and 26–7;
organizations and 117; maladaptation, 74–5; cost of environmental migration risk, regional impacts of 58–63; sea-level
risk of 71, 88, 89; National Adaptation 98–101; data for drought-induced rise, coastal risk and 50–53; security,
Programmes of Action (NAPAs) 118–19; migration 43; demographic pressures conflict and 82–3; social impacts of
policies of 14, 43, 58, 70, 94, 100, 112, 78–80; development, adaptation and 65; Special Climate Change Fund 102;
118–19, 128; regional policy processes risk management 76–7; frameworks Tuvalu, effects in 107; United Nations
and 115; strategy for 6, 7, 29, 48, 70–71, for action, limitations of 106–7; funding Framework Convention on Climate
74, 75, 87, 94, 104, 117, 118–19, 122, issues 102–5; gender and migration Change (UNFCCC) 95, 100, 102, 104,
124 90–91; human rights, protection of 108–9, 112–13, 116, 118; urbanization
86–7; implementation of specific action and 80–81; see also adaptation;
Africa 16, 22, 63, 77, 78, 98, 103, 128; displacement; ecosystem degradation;
113; individual coping strategies 88–9;
African Union (AU) 115, 122; Central security; urbanization
integration 20; legal challenges 109,
Africa 11, 16; ‘Collaborative Adaptation
111; mass displacement, management
Research Initiative in Africa and Asia’ climate negotiations 95, 100, 104, 118;
of 84–5; migration management 125;
(CARIAA) 79, 128; Horn of Africa 11, see also UNFCCC
opportunities and 70–93, 114; positive
42, 44, 109, 110–11, 115; mangrove
potential, optimization of 119; security Climate Vulnerable Forum 65, 104, 114
area in 48; Migration for Development
and conflict 82–3; social challenges 58;
in (IOM) 76; migration pathways from 8; coastal regions 4, 81; climate change,
traditional migration strategies, disruption
North Africa 48; South Africa 11, 28, 73; regional impacts of 59–60; coastal
of 72–3; trapped populations 29;
Sub-Saharan Africa 104; West Africa 11, mega-cities 59; coastal processes 46;
urbanization 80–81; water scarcity 49, 63
16, 44, 65, 122, 129, 130 coastal systems 128; demographic
children 25, 75, 88, 89–90, 106, 107, 108, pressures and 78–9; ecosystem
amenity migration 30–31
111, 117 degradation in 47–8; erosion in 26,
Americas 4, 10, 16, 103, 115; American 27, 46, 64, 68, 77, 87, 101, 118, 128;
choice 4, 18, 24, 28, 34, 66, 70
Convention on Human Rights 110, 111; sea-level rise and risks to 50–53; storm
Central 5, 8, 11, 25, 41, 86, 109, 114, circular migration 18, 28, 45, 74–5 surges 26, 27, 51, 59, 60, 119
115; Latin America 15, 41, 47, 81; North
cities 4, 5, 17, 22, 31, 34, 44, 45, 55, conflict 5, 6, 9, 13, 19, 36–7, 64–5, 67,
2, 4, 8, 20, 30, 58, 59, 77, 103, 129;
58, 67, 72, 87, 91; climate change, 71, 124, 125, 126; conflict resolution
Organization of American States 110;
regional impacts of 58–63; demographic 27, 89; demographic pressures and
South 8, 11, 21, 22, 48, 59, 81, 115
pressures and 78; disaster management 78–9; droughts, extreme temperatures
Antarctic 61 and 120; mass displacement and and 42, 45; ecosystem degradation and
84; mega-cities 36, 40, 59, 80, 81; 47, 49; insecurity and 72; international
Arctic 22, 31, 36, 87 organizations and 116, 117; pastoral
national adaptation policies and 119;
Asia 4, 8, 16, 48, 60, 63, 74, 78, 104, 115; sea-level rise, coastal risks and 50–51, conflict 73; regional policy processes
Asia-Pacific 10, 11, 110, 115; Asian 53; security, conflict and exodus to and 115; resources and 29; security and
Development Bank 101, 115; Asian 82; trajectories and 20–21; see also 82–3
Human Rights Declaration (2012) 110, urbanization cooperation 74, 94, 110, 113, 114, 116;
111; Association of Southeast Asian international cooperation 74, 77, 101,
climate change 2, 4, 6, 10–11, 13–15,
Nations (ASEAN) 110; Central 11, 113; regional cooperation 114, 115
18–19, 22, 28, 35–6, 124, 126;
22, 42, 49; ‘Collaborative Adaptation
challenge of 34, 70–71; circular coping strategies 28, 42, 44–5, 49, 75, 91;
Research Initiative in Africa and Asia’
migration and 74–5; Climate Change in individual coping strategies 88–9
(CARIAA) 79, 128; East 8, 15, 39, 41,
Europe-Options for EU Action (2007)
50, 60, 98, 109; South 15, 41, 109; UN
115; community level dynamics 64; costs 20, 34, 99; of adaptation 100;
Economic and Social Commission for
demographic pressures and 78–9; costliest disasters 98; healthcare costs
Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) 129
development, risk management and 67; of inaction 101; social costs 118
assets 22, 27, 35, 36, 41, 42, 50, 51, 67; 76–7; droughts, extreme temperatures
cross-border displacement/migration 9,
economic assets 88; erosion of 44–5; and 42; exposure to, regional impacts
73, 107, 109, 122, 125
financial assets 28; housing assets 126; and 58, 60; floods, storms, landslides
social assets 125 and 40–41; funding action on 102–5; dams 35, 46, 51, 56

data 8, 9, 10, 16, 17; blind spots 64, 66, 67, 72, 74; protection of people Central Europe 4, 62; climate change,
in 22; collection of 13; drought- displaced by 121; nuclear accidents impact on 62; Climate Change in Europe-
induced migration, challenge of data 24–5, 39, 54–5, 89, 91, 125; regional Options for EU Action (2007) 115; COST
for 43; insufficiency of 12, 64, 119; policy processes 114–15; relocation Action project 128; Eastern Europe 62;
interdisciplinary data 128; quantitative following 26–7; return migration and European Commission 74, 102, 103;
data 12 24–5; sea-level rise and risk of 53; European Convention on Access to
slow-onset disasters 94; small-scale Information 111; European Convention
deforestation 4, 5, 12, 35, 46–7, 48–9, 52,
disasters 11; sudden-onset disasters 35; on Human Rights (ECHR) 110, 111;
64, 122, 124
urbanization and 80–81; water-related European Development Cooperation
demographic changes 5, 8, 14, 25, 36, 43, disasters 59 113; European Social Charter 110;
80 European Union (EU) 100, 101, 103,
discrimination 20, 29, 36, 37, 80, 87, 88,
89, 90, 106, 108 110, 112, 115; floods and landslides in
demographic growth 14, 25, 30
40
demographic pressures 36, 78–9, 82, 84 displacement 9, 73, 107, 109, 122, 125;
disaster displacement risk 15, 16–17, evacuation 18, 20, 84–5, 86, 88, 100, 120,
desertification 11, 35, 47–9, 55, 58–63, 36; Disaster Displacement Risk Index 124; droughts, extreme temperatures
76–7, 86, 101, 112, 113, 118, 124 14; displacement risk 14–15, 16–17, and 42; geophysical disaster and 38,
20, 22; Displacement Tracking Matrix 39; industrial accidents and 54, 55;
destabilization 62 relocation and 27; return migration and
(DTM) 13, 128; Internal Displacement
development 4, 9, 10, 23, 24, 26, 31, Monitoring Centre (IDMC) 9, 14, 15, 24; sea-level rise, coastal risk and 52, 53;
34–6, 37, 46, 47, 53; adaptation 16–17, 22, 38–9, 43, 60, 64, 116, 129; time frames and 22
and, linking migration with 122–3; mass displacement, management of exposure 16, 35, 36, 37, 79, 91, 101,
Asian Development Bank 101, 84–5; pastoralist displacement 72; 120, 124; demographic pressure and
115; development, adaptation and protracted displacement 22, 23 79; human rights protection and 86;
risk management 76–7; European
drivers of environmental migration immobility and 28; individual coping
Development Cooperation 113;
37, 38–69; climate change 58–63; strategies and 88; mass displacement
infrastructure, land grabs and 56–7;
droughts and extreme temperatures management and 84; regional impacts of
Migration for Development in (IOM)
40–41; ecosystem degradation 46–9; climate change and 58, 60; sea-level rise,
76; Pact on Security, Stability and
floods, storms and landslides 40–41; coastal risk and 50, 53
Development (2006) 111; security,
development issues and 64 geophysical disasters 38–9; individual facilitation of migration 20, 37, 51, 86, 94,
factors 66–7; industrial accidents 54–5; 96, 112, 122, 123
diasporas 20, 76, 95, 105, 119, 121–2, infrastructure, land grabs and 56–7;
123, 124 sea-level rise 50–53; wildfires 40–41; factors in environmental migration see
see also multi-causality drivers
disaster risk reduction 27, 39, 84, 95, 96,
98, 109, 115, 116, 117, 120–21, 124; drought 4, 5, 13, 17, 22, 25, 27, 28, fisheries 48, 50, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63
funding action 102, 105; international 34–5, 36, 64, 65, 83, 101, 126; circular
agendas and 112–13; urbanization and floods 16–17, 25, 26, 27, 34–6, 44, 64,
migration and 74–5; climate change,
80, 81 65, 67, 75, 82, 99, 100, 126; climate
regional impacts of 59, 60, 62, 63;
change, regional impacts of 59, 60, 62,
disasters 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 18–19, 34–5, data for drought-induced migration 43;
63; dam floods 54, 55; development,
70, 124, 125, 126; cities, disaster disaster management and 120–21;
ecosystem degradation and 46, 47, adaptation and migration, links between
management and 120; coastal disasters 122, 123; disaster management, mobility
53; conflict, security and 82–3; 48, 49; livelihoods and 42, 43, 44, 45;
migration strategy disruption and 72–3; and 120–21; ecosystem degradation
costliest disasters 98; demographic 46, 48–9; flash floods 72; flood plains
pressures and 78–9; development, national adaptation policies and 118–19;
rainfall and 42, 43, 45; risk, drought and 78; flood risk estimates 101; gender,
risk management and 76; disaster migration and 90; immobility and 28–9;
displacement risk 15, 16–17, 36; 42–5; vulnerabilities and 42; see also
Dust Bowl infrastructure, land grabs and 56;
Disaster Displacement Risk Index 14; mass displacement management and
disaster management, linking mobility durable solutions 23, 24, 53, 85, 120, 124 84–5; national adaptation policies 118;
with 121; disaster management, sea-level rise and 50, 51, 52, 53; storms,
mobility and 120–21; disaster-related Dust Bowl 4, 44
landslides and 40–41; urbanization and
aid 99–100; disaster risk management ecosystems 20, 43, 49, 56, 58–60, 61–3, 80–81
76, 95, 119, 121; displacement risk 64, 124, 126; degradation of 35, 46–7;
14–15, 16–17, 20, 22; ecological ecosystem services 36, 37, 46; fragile forced migration 3, 18–19, 26, 64, 94–5,
disaster 49; exposure to 60; floods, ecosystems 78–9, 119; rehabilitation 118, 122, 125, 128; costs and funding
storms and landslides 40–41; funding of 47 for action on 100, 102, 104; ecosystem
action on 102–5; gender, migration degradation and 47; human rights and 86
and 90–91; geophysical disasters El-Hinnawi, E. 13
Foresight report (2011) 6, 10, 14, 19, 27,
38–9; global cost of (since 1960) 99;
environmental change 2, 4, 6, 8, 19, 29, 37–8, 129
immobility and 28–9; individual coping
20, 34, 35–7, 90, 124, 127; circular
strategies 88–9; industrial accidents funding 3, 23, 26, 74, 76, 95, 101, 115,
migration and 74; demographic
54–5; international agendas in context 119, 129; funding action 102–5
pressures and 78, 79; ecosystem
of 112–13; international law and 106–7;
degradation and 47; geography of gender 17, 29, 66, 67, 71, 75, 88, 113,
international organizations 116–17;
research and 10, 11; human rights and 126; migration and 90–91
legal frameworks in context of 108–9,
86–7; immobility and 28; international
111; mass destruction following (and geophysical disasters 38–9
law and 106–7; quantification of 12;
responses to) 36–7; mass displacement
relocation and 27; security, conflict and good practices 120, 123
management 84–5; mega-disasters 41;
82, 83; traditional migration strategy
meteorological disasters 39, 41; national
disruption and 72; urbanization and 81 habitat loss 46, 87
adaptation policies 118–19; natural
disasters 9, 12–13, 19, 39, 54, 55, 63, Europe 2, 4, 5, 10, 11, 16, 22, 30, 48, 77; Haiti 20–1, 26, 38, 52, 118, 120
150 17:50:06.

Index
health 35, 36, 49, 65, 66, 67, 91, 108, International Organization for Migration non-refoulement 106, 107, 108, 126
110, 113, 125, 129; droughts, extreme (IOM) 13, 16, 26, 27, 74, 76–7, 89, 94,
113–14, 115, 116, 117; Development nuclear accidents 24, 39, 54–5, 89
temperatures and 42, 43; health risks
46, 54, 60, 62, 87; human rights and Fund 104 Oceania 16, 61
86; immobility and 28; individual coping
irregular migration 9, 48, 64, 72, 74, 91, oceans 26, 34, 35, 39, 46, 48, 53, 60, 61,
strategies 88–9; industrial accidents 55;
106 73, 87, 121; acidification of 35, 46, 48,
international law 106; mass displacement
and 84 labour migration 9, 20, 28, 74, 115, 122, 49, 87; marine ecosystems 46, 59, 61
125 opportunities 8, 20, 22, 23, 24, 29, 36,
hotspots 10, 12, 58, 59–63
land 2, 13, 20, 24, 25, 28, 46–7, 49, 51, 94, 108, 123; amenity migration and
human rights 18, 19, 27, 35–6, 57, 71, 31; challenges and 70–93, 114; circular
52, 53, 67, 70; degradation of 4, 18,
85, 89, 91, 94, 96, 106, 113, 123, migration and 75; coping strategies and
35, 46, 47, 64, 77, 81; land grabbing,
125; American Convention on Human 89; employment opportunities 25, 26,
infrastructure and 56–7; management
Rights 110, 111; Asian Human Rights 37, 64; funding action and 105; gender,
of 47, 76, 77, 83, 96, 122, 130; misuse
Declaration (2012) 110, 111; European migration and 90, 91; international
of 124; pastoralist displacement from
Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) law and 106–7; mass displacement
72; rehabilitation of 76, 113, 119, 122;
110, 111; protection of 86–7 management 85; national adaptation
relocation and 26–7; rights to 23, 27, 83,
human security 35, 46, 83, 86, 89, 115, 84, 87; scarcity of 75, 82 policies and 118, 119; urbanization and
125, 130 80, 81
legal instruments 106, 108, 110
hurricane 35, 40–1; Haiyan 41, 84; Katrina pastoralism 11, 22, 29, 42–5, 72–3, 83,
legal status 86, 107, 108–9, 110 115, 122, 126, 129
25, 29, 41, 84, 88; Mitch 41, 86
livelihoods 15, 20, 35–7, 67, 79, 80, 91, perceptions 6, 13, 66–7
immobility 18, 28–9; forced immobility 2, 106, 120, 122, 123, 124, 125; circular
3, 28, 35; see also trapped populations migration and 75; droughts and extreme permanent migration 22, 68, 81
income diversification 28, 45, 48, 91 temperatures 42, 43, 44, 45; ecosystem planned relocation 18, 26–7, 67, 112, 120,
degradation 47, 48–9; floods, storms 123, 124, 126
indigenous communities 52, 56, 57, 58, and landslides 41; human rights
60, 61 protection and 86–7; immobility and policy 8–9, 20, 27, 29, 37, 64, 72, 84, 125,
indigenous populations 27, 49, 57, 87 28–9; international law and 106–7; land 126, 128; governance, policy responses
grabbing, infrastructure and 57; regional and 94–7; international policy processes
individuals 8, 16, 36, 41, 71, 76, 80, 91, impacts of climate change 60, 61, 63; 112–13; national adaptation policies
121, 126, 129; coping strategies 88–9; relocation and 27; sea-level rise and 118–19; operational decision-making
diasporas and 124; human rights, coastal risks 52, 53; security, conflict and and 16–17; politics and 6–7; regional
protection of 86–7; immobility of 28; 82, 83; time frames and 22, 23 policy processes 114–15; research,
international law and 106–7; legal policy awareness and 10
frameworks and 109, 110; psycho-social living conditions 3, 25, 36, 47, 87, 88, 124
impacts and risks to 89; security of 71, protection 2, 18, 26, 36, 46, 48, 52, 64,
loss and damage 95, 100, 101, 112, 113
125; vulnerability of 89, 90; wellbeing of 87, 90, 99, 117, 125, 126; human rights
8, 86 low-lying lands 22, 47, 50, 52, 60, 61, 81 and 86; for internally displaced persons
(IDPs) 110–11, 112; international law
inequalities 36, 79, 83, 87, 89, 90, 95, 103, mass migration 4, 6, 42, 104, 120 and 106–7; legal protection 94, 96,
105 Mediterranean 50, 53, 62, 97 108–9; mass displacement management
and 84–5; of people displaced by natural
insecurities 18, 25, 36–7, 47–8, 59, 64–5, melting glaciers 35, 46 disasters 121; social protection 20, 81,
71, 72, 79, 82; food insecurity 27, 47, 49,
men 13, 20, 23, 28, 44, 45, 79, 84, 90, 91 89, 122; temporary protection 20, 86,
51, 63, 75, 91
115, 120, 121
insurance 89, 100–101, 105, 120, 121 meteorological disasters 39, 41
protracted displacement 22, 23
integration 20, 24, 53, 71, 83, 85, 86, 110, Middle East 10, 11, 42
quantification 9, 12, 129; see also data
116; coping strategies 88–9; policies of Migrants in Countries in Crisis Initiative
123; programmes for 89; reintegration (MICIC) 109, 129 rainfall 13, 18, 22, 23, 35, 59, 61, 62, 65,
122; resettlement and 126; sustainable 75, 80, 81, 119; droughts and extreme
integration 85 migration channels 20, 64, 91, 94, 95, 120, temperatures 42, 43, 45; floods, storms
123; corridors 8; legal channels, absence and landslides 40; relocation and 27
Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre of 74, 86; pre-existing channels 9
(IDMC) 9, 14, 15, 16–17, 22, 38–9, 43, refugees 2, 6, 9, 14, 18, 27, 45, 64, 94, 99,
60, 64, 116, 129 migration crisis 96, 113, 125 107, 123–6, 129–30; conflict, security
migration governance 96, 110, 113, 125 and 83; demographic pressures and 78;
internal migration 9, 47, 73, 74, 77, 85,
legal frameworks and 108, 109, 110,
123, 125, 129 mixed migration flows 115, 125 111; Refugee Convention (1951) 19,
internally displaced persons (IDPs) 17, 72, modelling 14, 43 107, 109; traditional migration strategies,
83, 108 111, 121, 124, 125 disruption of 72–3; see also UNHCR
mountain regions 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63
international law 19, 106–7, 108, 110 regional processes 96, 114–15; climate
multi-causality 3, 6, 14, 64–5; see also change, regional impacts of 58–63, 112;
international migration 8, 9, 20, 37, 44, drivers of environmental migration consultation processes 94, 109, 113;
74, 77, 94, 123, 125, 129; ecosystem
legal frameworks 110–11
degradation and 47; international Nansen Initiative 94, 109, 113, 115
agendas and 113; mass displacement, relocation 18, 26–7, 31, 43, 49, 51–2,
natural hazards 14, 16, 18, 35, 84, 112,
management of 85; national adaptation 54–5, 67, 85, 112, 126; development,
124, 125, 129
policies and 119; regional policy adaptation and 122–3; land grabbing,
processes and 114, 115 New Orleans 10, 25, 29, 41, 50, 58, 84 infrastructure and 56–7; mobility,

disaster management and 120–21; geophysical disasters 38–9; health risks storms 16, 34–5, 61, 79, 80, 81, 84, 87;
national adaptation policies and 118–19; 46, 54, 60, 62, 87; industrial accidents dust storms 4, 42, 44; floods, landslides
see also planned relocation 54–5; maladaptation, risk of 71, 88, and 40–1; storm seasons 26; storm
89; psycho-social impacts and risks to surges 26, 27, 51, 59, 60, 119
remittances 28, 74–5, 76–7, 79, 90, 91,
individuals 89; risk management 23, 34,
119, 120, 121, 123; circular migration sudden-onset events 29, 34, 35, 126
76, 95, 101, 119, 121; risk reduction
and 74–5; funding action and 104–5
27, 39, 84, 95, 96, 98, 109, 115, 116, sustainable development 34, 95, 112–13,
research 3, 6; capacity for 11; Collaborative 117, 120–21, 124; funding action 102, 115, 121
Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa 105; international agendas and 112–13;
and Asia’ (CARIAA) programme 79, urbanization and 80, 81; sea-level rise, Syria and Syrians 2, 82–3, 103
128; existing research 20; gaps in coastal risk and 50–53; statistical risk
temporary migration 22–3, 45, 47, 64, 74,
16, 129; geography of 10–11; North- models 13
75
South research divide 11; quantification,
rural-urban migration 20, 41, 47, 49, 65,
forecasting and 12–15; research terminology 9, 18
78, 80, 118–19
projects, institutions and 128–30
sea-level rise 2, 6, 12, 35–6, 46, 77, 86, traditional culture 28, 87
resettlement 23, 53, 56–7, 78, 86, 101,
101, 114, 123, 128, 130; climate change, traditional lifestyle 72, 87
107–8, 124, 126; disaster management,
regional impacts of 58–63; coastal
mobility and 120–21; national adaptation trafficking 9, 20, 82, 90, 91, 94, 106, 108,
risks and 50–53; immobility and 28–9;
policies and 118–19; relocation and 126, 127
national adaptation policies and 119;
26–7
relocation and 26–7; small island states
trapped populations 28, 29, 68, 85, 127;
resilience 29, 37, 53, 75, 79, 102, 115, and 126; urbanization and 80–81
see also immobility
119, 120, 123, 125, 126; communities’
seasonal migration 22–3, 41, 44, 45, 74,
resilience 37, 123; coping strategies United Nations Convention to Combat
123
and 88–9; gender, migration and 91; Desertification (UNCCD) 76–7, 112–13
individual risks, resilience to 89; psycho- security 71, 80, 82, 84, 89, 96, 105, 106,
social resilience 89; social resilience 128; 108, 119, 120, 129; conflict and 82–3; United Nations Framework Convention
urbanization and 81 development issues and 64; energy on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 95, 100,
security 46, 129; environmental security 102, 104, 108–9, 112–13, 116, 118
return migration 9, 24–5
46, 82; food security 23, 45, 46, 48, 49, United Nations High Commissioner for
rights 66, 80, 89, 90; African Charter 73, 83, 87, 91; health security 28, 35, 49; Refugees (UNHCR) 27, 39, 78, 99, 114,
on the Rights and Welfare of the Child human security 46–7, 83, 86, 89, 125; 116, 117, 129
(1990-99) 111; environmental migration, job security 65, 87; Pact on Security,
rights relevant to 106, 108; human rights Stability and Development (2006) 111; urbanization 9, 50, 60, 63, 71, 80–81, 96
18, 19, 27, 35–6, 57, 71, 85, 86–7, 89, personal security 46, 71; regional policy
urban planning 72, 78, 120–1
91, 94, 96, 106, 113, 123, 125; American processes and 114–15; stability and 6;
Convention on Human Rights in the Area water security 35, 37, 46, 51, 60, 63, 129 voluntary migration 2, 18, 95, 124, 126
of Economic, Social and Cultural Rights
slow-onset processes 17, 18, 20, 27, 29, vulnerabilities 13, 16, 23, 34–7, 58, 67, 75,
(San Salvador Protocol) 110; Asian
35, 42–53, 83, 87, 94, 124, 126 76, 104, 112, 122, 127; conflict, security
Human Rights Declaration (2012) 110;
indigenous rights 27, 87; International Small Island Developing States (SIDS) 6, and 83; coping strategies 88–9; costs
Covenants on Economic, Social and 15, 51, 61, 114, 118; Cook Islands 119; of adaptation and 100; demographic
Cultural Rights and on Civil and Political Federated States of Micronesia 119; pressures and 78–9; droughts, extreme
Rights (1966) 106; land rights 23, 27, Fiji 49, 51, 119; Kiribati 28, 49, 51, 119, temperatures and 42; ecosystem
83, 91; political rights 86, 87; property 123; Maldives 53, 119, 121; Papua New degradation 47–8; environmental
rights 24, 91; universal rights 86; water Guinea 26, 39,40, 42, 51, 119; Samoa vulnerability 70–71; gender, migration
rights 83 76, 121; Solomon Islands 51; Tuvalu 51, and 90–91; geophysical disasters and
119, 123 39; governance and policy responses
risk: at-risk areas 14, 29, 39, 71, 78,
122; climate change, regional impacts to 94–5; human rights protection 86–7;
small-scale disasters 11, 17, 41
of 58–63; climate risks 74, 78, 100, immobility and 28–9; mass displacement
101; development, adaptation and smuggling 9, 20, 106, 126 84; sea-level rise and coastal risks
risk management 76–7; disaster 50, 52–3; urbanization and 80–81;

stabilization 118, 122
displacement risk 15, 16–17, 36; vulnerability assessments 120
droughts, extreme temperatures and state-led initiatives 109, 113, 115
wildfires 40–1
42–5; ecosystem degradation 46–9;
statelessness 9, 106–7, 126
environmental risk 20, 27, 66, 74, 78, women 13, 20, 23, 28, 79, 84, 90, 91, 106,
80; floods, storms and landslides 40–41; Stern, Nicholas 13, 14, 100 127
152 17:50:06.

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Atlas of Environmental Migration

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People have always migrated in search of better climatic conditions or in response to

01-AtlasMigrationEN-OIM-6sept.indd 1 06/09/2016 10:40

“There is a tragic connection between the incapacity of nation states to

“The fates of individuals and communities most vulnerable to climate change

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01-AtlasMigrationEN-OIM-15sept.indd 4 15/09/2016 18:47

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VI The Atlas of Environmental Migration

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The Atlas of Environmental Migration VII

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VIII The Atlas of Environmental Migration

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The Atlas of Environmental Migration IX

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X The Atlas of Environmental Migration

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Dina Ionesco is the Head of the Daria Mokhnacheva is a François Gemenne is a

The Atlas of Environmental Migration XI

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Balamaci, Aida-Bianca Crowley, John

Barbut, Monique De Sherbinin, Alex Guélat, Jérémie

XII The Atlas of Environmental Migration

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Jaervinen, Petra O’Hara, Molly Thomas, Alice

The Atlas of Environmental Migration XIII

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ICCPR International Covenant on Civil and NGI Norwegian Geotechnical Institute

XIV The Atlas of Environmental Migration

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The Atlas of Environmental Migration XV

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2 The Atlas of Environmental Migration

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An awkward definition Reactive

How then can environmental migrants

The Atlas of Environmental Migration 3

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Human migration and environment throughout history

Drought Glaciation Climate and diseases Earthquake Human-made degradation

4 The Atlas of Environmental Migration

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The Atlas of Environmental Migration 5

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relatively new, it has been

tical (or minimalist) perspective. The

6 The Atlas of Environmental Migration

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The evolution of the discourses on environmental migration

Antagonism Reconciliation Evolution

Environmental scholars Think tanks

The Atlas of Environmental Migration 7

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Main migration pathways, as per 2013

Migrant stock, 2013 South-East Asia

10 intra-regional migration corridors

8 The Atlas of Environmental Migration

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Some estimates and demographic dynamics, is estimated

The Atlas of Environmental Migration 9

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Research on the links Regional distribution

Research and policy awareness 120