BCG Brazil COVID Task Force

bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

0
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis.
Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents
BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any
representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency
of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose. This
presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a
substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or
recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own
assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as
guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly
the most recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before
making any decision.

No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable
for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person
using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability
whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document.
Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and
consideration for the foregoing.

The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients.
No part may be reproduced in any form.

1
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 Otavio Dantas Julien Imbert
Managing Director and Managing Director and
Partner Partner

Today's São Paulo São Paulo

presenters

Masao Ukon Dan Ioschpe

Managing Director and Chairman of the Board of
Senior Partner Directors of Sindipeças
São Paulo and IEDI, and member of
the Board of Directors of
several companies
2
Discussion topics
COVID-19 evolution update

Fight phase in business: Industry

Leadership perspectives: Dan Ioschpe on Industry trends

3
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

Daily new cases are increasing globally, driven by North

America and Asia Data as of 30 July

Daily new cases

New daily cases (seven-day rolling average) distribution (%)

300k

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 16 June 2020 Version 10.1.
This week

Africa 7% 8%
South America1 9% 9%
200k 18% 15%
Brazil

North & Central 31% 35%

America
100k
Europe 6% 6%

Asia2 29% 27%

0k
01.03. 01.04. 01.05. 01.06. 01.07.

1. Excluding Brazil 2. Includes Middle East & Oceania

Source: Our World in data; BCG analysis 4
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

Key developments of the week

Selected examples

Europe United States Africa Asia & Oceania

July 28, 2020 July 30, 2020 July 29, 2020 July 27, 2020

Hong Kong extends virus

Europe battles to contain surge in Unemployment Claims Rise for Nigeria: private school owners
restrictions to ban gatherings of

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved.

Covid-19 cases Second Consecutive Week support reopening plan
more than two people
July 30, 2020 July 30, 2020 July 27, 2020 July 30, 2020

Coronavirus causes record plunge in Florida Sets Daily Coronavirus Death Australia: Mandatory masks and new
Ghanaian president announces
Germany's GDP during second Toll Record for Third Consecutive restrictions in Victoria state after
easing of Covid-19 restrictions
quarter of 2020 Day record daily COVID-19 cases
Source: Press search; BCG analysis 5
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force Disclaimer: Reported cases may be
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com
underestimated given low number of testing

Countries in different epidemiological phases; cases in

Brazil appear to be increasing in the last week
Data as of 30 July

Daily new confirmed cases per 1M hab. (7-day moving average)

600

Copyright © 2020 by Boston Consulting Group. All rights reserved. Updated 24 April 2020 Version 3.1.
World Brazil
300
Total cases 17.3M 2.6M
(#2)
Brazil
Israel
200 US
Total cases - 12.4k South Africa
per 1M hab. (#13) Peru
Chile2
100

Cases doubling 42 days 32 days Spain

every¹ Italy
0
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175

Days after 100th case

1. Average daily growth of past 4 days 2. In June 17 Chile reported accumulated unreported data increasing peak
Note: Countries shown on the graph have more than 1.000 reported confirmed cases;
Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE; United Nations; Worldometers; BCG Analysis 6
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force Disclaimer: Reported cases may be
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com underestimated given low number of testing

In Brazil epidemiological situation appears stable in most of July,

however last week showed higher number of cases
Data as of 30 July

New confirmed cases peaked last week Deaths have been in plateau for ~2 months
New confirmed cases/1M inhab. New deaths by COVID-19/1M inhab.
350
7-day moving avg 7-day moving avg
300 Reported cases Reported cases
6.0
250

200
4.0

150

100 2.0

50

0 0.0
01/Apr 01/May 01/Jun 01/Jul 01/Apr 01/May 01/Jun 01/Jul

Ratio of test per case1 2.1 2.4 2.5

1. Total number of testes divided by total number of confirmed cases

Note: Ministry of Health changed the way the number of cases and deaths are reported, creating uncertainty about the data. We're using data from States Health Secretaries
whenever possible to avoid inconsistencies Source: States Health Secretaries; IBGE; BCG analysis 8
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

Gradual increment in number of tests in Brazil, however testing

levels are still below WHO's recommendation Data as of 27 July

Total tests per 1 Million inhabitants Total tests per confirmed cases
200k 35
Russia
Russia
30
United Kingdom

150k United States

25
United Kingdom
20
100k
Spain
Spain 15
United States
Chile
India
10
50k South Africa South Africa
Brazil Chile
5 WHO
India Brazil Recom.1
Peru Peru
0k 0
1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug

1. WHO recommends 5 tests per confirmed case

Source: Our World in Data; States Health Secretaries; BCG analysis 9
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 ~70% of the population in States with low and medium
ICU bed occupancy on July 30th (vs. ~60% on July 23rd)

5% 6% 8%
12%
24%
23%
Overall situation 23%
30% 39% 35%

of the health
system has been 45%
55%
44%
improving
50%
49%

8% 12% 14% 14%

4%
2-Jul 9-Jul 16-Jul 23-Jul 30-Jul2

Population in states with … medium ICU … high ICU … critical ICU

low ICU occupancy rate1 occupancy rate occupancy rate occupancy rate

1. Classification based on threshold of São Paulo's reopening plan and weekly growth in new confirmed cases 2. SP
Government reviewed thresholds of the reopening plan on July 27. The original threshold was kept for comparing purpose.
Source: States Health Secretaries; Press search; IBGE; BCG Analysis 10
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force Disclaimer: Reported cases may be
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com underestimated given low number of testing

Growth in cases has been challenging the health system capacity in

many states
Data as of July 23rd
Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1
threshold in São threshold in São threshold in São
Paulo's plan Paulo's plan Paulo's plan !
Growth in new confirmed cases (week over week)

150%

! RJ2
100%
GO
MT
50%
MG BA RO RN
PB MS PR SE SC Stability of
TO
DF weekly cases
0%
AC SP
PI RS ES
CE PE RR
AP MA PA AM
-50% AL
8% of GDP 52% of GDP 33% of GDP 7% of GDP
14% of Pop. 45% of Pop. 35% of Pop 6% of Pop.
-100%
0 20 40 60 80 100
ICU beds occupancy rate (%)
1

# of reported cases

1. When the state doesn't disclose the occupancy rate for all ICU beds, occupancy rate for ICU public beds is used 2. RJ growth in confirmed cases is 172% and was plotted 150% for scale
Note: SP Government reviewed thresholds of the reopening plan on July 27. The original threshold was kept for comparing purpose; Ministry of Health changed the way the number of cases
and deaths are reported, creating uncertainty about the data. We're using data from States Health Secretaries whenever possible to avoid inconsistencies.
Source: States Health Secretaries; Press search; IBGE; BCG Analysis 11
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force Disclaimer: Reported cases may be
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com underestimated given low number of testing

Growth in cases has been challenging the health system capacity in

many states
Data as of July 30th
Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1
threshold in São threshold in São threshold in São
Paulo's plan Paulo's plan Paulo's plan !
Growth in new confirmed cases (week over week)

150%

!
100%
PE
AL SP
50% PB MG BA TO GO SC
AM
CE RS MT Stability of
DF
0% RR AC weekly cases
MA PI
SE MS
PA
RJ2 ES PR RO
-50%
AP RN

7% of GDP 60% of GDP 22% of GDP 11% of GDP

14% of Pop. 55% of Pop. 23% of Pop 8% of Pop.
-100%
0 20 40 60 80 100
ICU beds occupancy rate (%)
1

# of reported cases

1. When the state doesn't disclose the occupancy rate for all ICU beds, occupancy rate for ICU public beds is used 2. RJ data as of July 23
Note: SP Government reviewed thresholds of the reopening plan on July 27. The original threshold was kept for comparing purpose; Ministry of Health changed the way the number of cases
and deaths are reported, creating uncertainty about the data. We're using data from States Health Secretaries whenever possible to avoid inconsistencies.
Source: States Health Secretaries; Press search; IBGE; BCG Analysis 12
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force Disclaimer: Reported cases may be
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com underestimated given low number of testing

Brazilian states at different stages of COVID-19 response Data as of 29 July

New daily COVID-19 cases/1M habs (7 days moving average) New daily COVID-19 deaths/1M habs (7 days moving average)
Last
week
April May June July April May June July
RS RS
PR PR
MG MG
SC SC
MS MS
MT MT
RO RO
SE SE
Increasing GO GO
DF DF
SP SP
TO TO
PB PB
RJ RJ
PE PE
BA BA
PI PI
Plateauing
AL AL
ES ES
RN RN
RR RR
PA PA
Decreasing MA MA
AP AP
AC AC
AM AM
CE CE
0 1000+ 0 17
Note: Non-linear scale
Source: States Health Secretaries; IBGE; BCG analysis Peak ~70 Peak ~170 Peak ~15 Peak ~1616
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force Disclaimer: Reported cases may be
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com underestimated given low number of testing

Number of cases in the countryside continues to grow

faster than in State capitals
Data as of 29 July
Total confirmed cases

100%

Countryside
24% 68%
80%

60%

40%

20%
76% 32%
State Capitals

0%
1/Apr 1/May 1/Jun 1/Jul 29/Jul
Avg. daily 11.2% 7.0% 3.9% 2.4%
growth
in the period 8.6% 4.9% 2.8% 1.5%

Source: States Health Secretaries; IBGE; BCG analysis 17

The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force Disclaimer: Reported cases may be
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com underestimated given low number of testing

Brazilian capitals in different phases – most of them with

decreasing number of cases
Data as of 29 July Selected cities

Increasing Plateauing Decreasing

Daily new confirmed cases per 1M hab. Daily new confirmed cases per 1M hab. Daily new confirmed cases per 1M hab.
(7-day moving average) (7-day moving average) (7-day moving average)
800 800 800

600 600 600

400 400 400

200 200 200

0 0 0
0 50 100 150 0 50 100 150 0 50 100 150
Days after 100th case
Fortaleza/CE Salvador/BA
Goiânia/GO Brasília/DF
Manaus/AM São Paulo/SP
Belo Horizonte/MG
Recife/PE Curitiba/PR
Rio de Janeiro/RJ

Note: Graphs only show top ten most populous State capitals
Source: States Health Secretaries; IBGE; BCG analysis 18
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

Number of Capitals with plateauing or decreasing number of cases has been

increasing over the past few weeks
Number of cities in each phase
15 July 22 July 29 July

9 4 2 • Goiânia/GO
• Belo Horizonte/MG
Increasing

• Palmas/TO

Plateauing
2 5 5 • Brasília/DF
• Florianópolis/SC
• Campo Grande/MS
• João Pessoa/PB

• Rio de Janeiro/RJ
• Belém/PA
• Manaus/AM
• Boa Vista/RR
• Natal/RN
• Fortaleza/CE
• Recife/PE • Porto Alegre/RS
16 18 20 •
•
Macapá/AP
Porto Velho/RO
•
•
Rio Branco/AC
São Luís/MA
• Curitiba/PR
• Aracaju/SE
• Maceió/AL
• Vitória/ES
Decreasing • Salvador/BA
• Cuiabá/MT
• São Paulo/SP
• Teresina/PI
Last week the city was decreasing plateauing increasing
Note: Increasing: peak in daily number of cases in the last seven days; Plateauing: peak in daily number of cases more than seven days ago, and daily number of cases greater or equal than
75% of peak number; Decreasing: peak in cases more than seven days ago, and daily number of cases less than peak number
Source: States Health Secretaries; IBGE; BCG analysis 19
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force Disclaimer: Reported cases may be
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com underestimated given low number of testing

RJ: capital showing a decreasing trend while countryside

appears to see disease advance
Data as of 29 July

Daily new cases Daily deaths

(lines represent 7-day moving average, bars represent daily cases) (lines represent 7-day moving average, bars represent daily cases)
4.5k 300

3.0k 200

RJ
1.5k countryside 100 RJ
countryside

RJ city RJ city

1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul

Week over 2 weeks over Month over Week over 2 weeks over Month over
Week 2 weeks Month Week 2 weeks Month
Variation in RJ countryside 111% 74% 0%
Variation RJ countryside 52% 9% -20%
daily new in daily
41% -37% -49% -17% -28% -43%
cases1 RJ city deaths1 RJ city
1. Variation calculated using 7-day moving average
Source: Secretaries of health; BCG Analysis 20
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force Disclaimer: Reported cases may be
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com underestimated given low number of testing

SP: capital shows decreasing trend while disease is

progressing in the countryside
Data as of 29 July

Daily new cases Daily deaths

(lines represent 7-day moving average, bars represent daily cases) (lines represent 7-day moving average, bars represent daily cases)
30k 800

600
20k
SP
countryside 400
SP
10k countryside
200
SP city
SP city
1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul

Week over 2 weeks over Month over Week over 2 weeks over Month over
Week 2 weeks Month Week 2 weeks Month
Variation in SP countryside 61% 16% 68%
Variation SP countryside 7% 18% 28%
daily new in daily
4% -12% -12% -31% -17% -22%
cases1 SP city deaths1 SP city
1. Variation calculated using 7-day moving average
Source: Secretaries of health; BCG Analysis 21
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

As reopening process advance, mobility in major1 Brazilian

States is slowly recovering Selected States
Data as of 27 July
Mobility change2 from baseline for top 5 most populated Brazilian States
(7-day moving average)
20%
Bahia Minas Gerais Paraná Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo

0%

-20%

15-Jul
11-Jun
-40% RJ: Reopening of
RJ: Reopening of
bars & restaurants;
shopping malls
6-Jul hair dressers
10-Jun SP: Reopening of
SP: Reopening bars & restaurants;
of commerce
-60% hair dressers
March April May June July

1.Top 5 most populated states; 2.Average of changes in Retail, Grocery Workplace and Transit Stations
Source: Global Mobility Report; BCG Analysis 22
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

Most Capitals already reopened activities with restrictions

Selected Cities

Top 10 most Belo

populated Capitals: Goiania Horizonte Brasilia Curitiba Fortaleza Manaus Recife RJ City Salvador SP City
Restaurants
(dine-in)¹

Bars¹
Reopened activities

Reopening to Private Schools

Schools Schools remain closed
start in August
Schools remain closed
allowed
Schools remain closed

Gyms & Sport

activities²
Personal
Services²
Retail
(non-essential)³

Parks

Open with restrictions Closed

1. Restrictions varies by State, and may include limited occupancy or only outside sitting 2. Restrictions may include limited occupancy or practice-only activities 3. Restrictions may
include limited occupancy
Source: Press search; BCG analysis 23
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

In SP city reopening next steps involve restarting activities

and lifting restrictions in previously restarted ones …
SP State's economic reopening plan Data as of 27 July

Already in place in SP city Next steps

Phase

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5

Restarted activities

Transport of Goods Shopping Malls Bars Gyms Sport Events

Construction Factories Restaurants Cinema & Theater

Movement of people Hairdressers Public gatherings

+ -
Strictness of restrictions2 in restarted activ.
1.For phases 2, 3 and 4 cities governments have autonomy to ease restrictions for specific sectors; 2. Restrictions may include limited occupancy and limited working hours;
Sources: SP Government; Press search; BCG Analysis 25
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

… and depend on improvement in epidemy indicators;

health system indicators already within phase 4 threshold
Data as of 27 July

Health system capacity indicators in SP city Epidemic evolution indicators in SP city

ICU occupancy bed rate in SP City Variation in the last 14 days
100% 16

69% 67% 66% 12

50% Phase 4 8
threshold
4
N/A N/A N/A
0% 0 Phase 4
26-Jun 10-Jul 24-Jul 26-Jun 10-Jul 24-Jul threshold
Deaths/100k inhab. Hospitaliz./100k inhab.

ICU beds/100k inhab. Week over week variation

1.5
40
32 31 30
30 1.0

20 Phase 4 Phase 4
threshold 0.5 threshold
10
0.0
0 26-Jun 10-Jul 24-Jul
26-Jun 10-Jul 24-Jul
Daily cases Hospitalizations Daily deaths

Note: Cities have to be approved in all criteria to advance phases Approved in this criteria to advance to phase 4 Not approved …
Sources: SP Government; Press search; BCG Analysis 26
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
Fight phase in business:
Industry
28
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

In line with other markets, industrial sector in Brazil was strongly

affected by the crisis
Manufacturing PMI before, during, and after the crisis As of 01 July 2020

Brazil Neutral US China Italy Germany Japan

level = 50

Jan 1 2 0 -1 -5 -1

Feb 2 1 -14 -1 -2 -2

Mar -2 -2 2 -10 -5 -5

Apr -14 -14 1 -19 -16 -8

May -12 -10 1 -5 -13 -12

Jun 2 0 1 -3 -5 -10

< -30 -30 to -15 -15 to 0 >0

Note: PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index) is a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions, as viewed by purchasing managers, are expanding, staying the same, or contracting. 50 is neutral, >50 is
considered to be positive sentiment and <50 is considered to be negative sentiment
Source: Markit Economics; Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI SA; China Manufacturing PMI SA; Swedbank Sweden PMI SA; Bloomberg 30
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

Transformation segment GDP forecasts suffered the highest drop;

Auto represents 18% of the segment

Industry segments - 2020 GDP growth forecast

-14 p.p.
4.0%
1.9%
3.1%
4.4%
2.2%
~18%

Share of auto in the

-4.3% transformation sector1

-9.0%

-12.2%
Extractive Electricity, gas, water Civil construction Transformation ~1.3M
and residue mgmt.

Forecast as of Jan Forecast as of Jul

Employees in the auto sector
(direct + indirect)
1. Based on 2017 GDP
Source: LCA; ANFAVEA 31
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

Auto sales in Brazil following similar trend observed in other markets

Vehicle sales per month, M

2.5 2.0 2.0 0.20

2.0
1.5 1.5 0.15

1.5
-46% -79%
-82% 1.0 1.0 0.10
1.0 -78%

0.5 0.5 0.05

0.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

1 2 3 4
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020

1. Passenger vehicles sales by month including Mini Vans 2. New passenger car registrations by month, Europe = EU + UK + Iceland, Norway, Switzerland,
Lichtenstein 3. Light Vehicles (LV) include Passenger Vehicles (PV) 4. Light Vehicle registration from ANFAVEA
Sources: Marklines/China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM); ACEA actuals; Wards Automotive; ANFAVEA; BCG analysis and forecast 32
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

Consumer behavior changes during and post COVID-19 likely to

accelerate digitization trend in car buying process

Even before COVID-19, consumers were increasingly relying … and recent changes
on digital tools in the car-buying process… expected to persist
At least in the medium-term,
consumers expected to:
4.5 – 6 1.4 • Prefer fewer face-to-face
40 - 50% 75 - 85%
hours visits interactions
• Limit time spent outside the
home in dealerships
• Maintain increased
Spent on online Of customers To a dealership, Of customers consumption of technology
research on rely on online on average, welcome digital
price, product sources to form before buying a experiences These behavior changes will
specifics before car choice, then car within accelerate shift to digital
a car purchase buy at a dealer dealerships solutions in the car buying and
related customer journeys

Source: Auto survey realized with SSI in April 2016 based on a sample of 5030 respondents (Respondents split—US: 1521; CN: 1504; DE: 1005; FR: 1000), BCG 34
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

BCG survey in major cities across the globe illustrates the significant
short term impact from the pandemic on mobility patterns
Survey results – Short-term change in urban mobility usage by region
0 20 40 60 80 100 Mean
-0.6
Public transit -0.7
-0.8

Ride-hailing -0.4
-0.2
(pooled) -0.6

-0.5
Taxi/Ride-hailing -0.3
-0.5

-0.2
Car-sharing -0.2
-0.5

-0.2
Micromobility- -0.1
-0.4
sharing
0.1
Walking, 0.2
0.1
Own bike/scooter
0.2
Private car 0.2
0.5

A lot less frequently Less frequently Same as before More frequently Much more frequently -2 -1 +1 +2

Note: Short-term = immediately after lift of lockdown restrictions

Source: BCG Survey (5.000 respondents from US, GER, IT, FR, ES, UK, CN); Sample adjusted for "n/a" responses 35
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

Survey indicates that the current sentiment might persist to some extent
Survey results - Short- and medium-term change in urban mobility usage by region
0 20 40 60 80 100 Mean
Short -0.7
Public transit
Medium -0.3

Ride-hailing Short -0.4

(pooled) Medium -0.2

Short -0.4
Taxi/Ride-hailing
Medium -0.2

Short -0.3
Car-sharing -0.1
Medium

Short -0.2
Micromobility- -0.1
Medium
sharing
Short 0.2
Walking, 0.2
Medium
Own bike/scooter

Short 0.2
Private car 0.2
Medium

-2 -1 +1 +2
A lot less frequently Less frequently Same as before More frequently Much more frequently
Note: Short-term = immediately after lift of lockdown restrictions; Medium-term = In 12-18 months when COVID-19 treatment/vaccines expected to be available
Source: BCG Survey (5.000 respondents from US, GER, IT, FR, ES, UK, CN); Sample adjusted for "n/a" responses 36
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

Changes in life aspects can also affect the auto demand

Change in demand pattern Effects on the auto demand

Reduced mileage and wear lead to longer usage of

• Established home office work reduces commuting vehicle and decreased demand
Ways of <-1%
working
• Usage of digital communication reduces business trips Reduced rental, taxi and company fleet sizes
-1% to -2%

Increased individual transport raising vehicle demand

• Return to outdoor activities increase out of city travel through private or shared vehicle
Leisure <+1%
activities Increased individual transport raising vehicle demand
• Increased domestic and short range travel (private or rental vehicle) usage
<+1%

Increased amount of vehicle of mobility providers and

• Feeling of safety by traveling in own/individual vehicle private vehicles
0% to +1%
Mobility
No effect on vehicle volume, change only in model mix
• Pot. acceleration of EV sales due to govern. incentives / price effect
~0%
Increase in Auto demand No change in Auto demand Decrease in Auto demand

Source: BCG 37
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
Call for action: act on short term measures and build
competitive advantages to emerge stronger from the crisis
Fight—Win the fight Future—Come out stronger
Structural adjustments to Build lasting competitive advantage
the operating model to emerge stronger

Put in place cost-reduction plan and assess

Create digitally-enabled operations to avoid
viability of current investment plan in
disruption in business
response to demand shock

Adopt Advanced Analytics to improve supply

Identify alternatives for critical components chain & operations
and provide financial support for partners
to avoid supply chain disruptions Uncertainty on shift in customer behavior
trends for the long term

Put in place safety procedures to ensure

Improve operations efficiency to create
employees safety and guarantee continuity E
competitive advantage
of operations

38
Live session update
39
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

ENROLL NOW

40
More information: BCGBrazilMarketing@bcg.com
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
How to lead in the
new reality?
BCG online lives will return in late
August/early September in a new
format and with the same BCG
engagement to support companies in
their recapture

Stay tuned over the next weeks!

41
Combat COVID Win the new Accelerate
and lead customer digital

Transform to Shape a better

drive future

42
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

Boston Consulting Group Answers and suggestions

at LinkedIn BCG.Brazil.Covid19@bcg.com

43
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
 BCG Brazil COVID Task Force
bcg.brazil.covid19@bcg.com

The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly

evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior
to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a
particular point in time. This presentation is not intended to: (i)
constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the
same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation
of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own
assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using
this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws
and guidance in your area, particularly the most recent advice
issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before
making any decision.

44
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. BCG does not guarantee or make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness, or currency of the information in this document nor its usefulness in achieving any purpose.
This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most
recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision. No recipient shall rely on this document for any purpose and BCG will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost, or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this document. BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any party, and any person using this document hereby waives any
rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the document. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing. The summary is for internal use only and not for commercial use by the recipients. No part may be reproduced in any form.
bcg.com