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YPF S.A. (NYSE:YPF)
Q4 2019 Earnings Call
Mar 6, 2020, 8 30 a.m. ET
Contents:
Prepared Remarks
Questions and Answers
Call Participants
Prepared
Operator
Remarks: IMAGE SOURCE: THE MOTLEY
FOOL.
Good morning and welcome to the Fiscal Year
End Fourth Quarter 2019 YPF SA Earnings Conference Call. My name is
Brandon and I'll be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions].
I will now turn the call over to Ignacio Rostagno. You may begin, sir.
Ignacio Rostagno -- Investor and Market Relations Officer
Thank you, Brandon. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Ignacio
Rostagno, IR Manager. I would like to thank you for joining us today. In this
occasion, we will present YPF 2019 full year and fourth quarter results. With
me on the call today are our new Chairman, Guillermo Nielsen; and our CEO,
Daniel Gonzalez. Guillermo will start with some opening remarks. Daniel and
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I will go through the main aspects and events that explain our results and
finally, we will open the call for questions.
Please Guillermo, go ahead.
Guillermo Emilio Nielsen -- Chairman of the Board
Okay. Well, good morning to all of you and thank you for taking the time on
this very difficult day for the markets to join us. This is one of these days in
which most of you are glued to screens, looking at what happens in Vienna,
and what we can envisage for the very near future on the energy sector in
general, on a worldwide scale. We are looking closely to what happens to
the Brent crude, as well as what happens -- what is happening right now
with the Texas Intermediate, which are on very low levels, as you know. Let's
say that crude has declined by almost a third since January. So this impacts
all of us, without any doubt. But let's assume for this call, that the
coronavirus outbreak is largely contained in the second half of the year, at
least. We have to make some bold assumptions, no matter what.
But let me focus a bit on Argentina, because we are also living challenging
times in Argentina, and of course, Daniel Gonzalez, will explain to you the
results of last year, as well as what's going on and what we can envisage
about the macro scenario that will make a very important impact on the
decisions to come. So let me say, just to round this up this introductory
statement, that I'm very proud and very committed to lead a company that
has a 100-year history, a company that has discovered the main oil and gas
basins in Argentina, and pioneered the development of the energy sector in
in shale, which was something new at the time and very important. It's also
the fifth electric generator of Argentina. So in short, we can say that YPF is
really a very important contribution to the Argentine economy. So, I'm fully
committed in this very difficult international and national times to contribute
-- to steer the company through increasing value for our investors. And this
is my main goal. So, in that respect, I want to convey to you, that I'm fully
committed to propel up and to steer this big ship through this storm, as we
qualify the situation today.
So, keeping our fingers crossed, I will pass the word to Daniel, and he will
enter into the detail of the management and the results of last year, and
then we'll move forward to the questions you may have. Thank you very
much.
Daniel Cristian Gonzalez Casartelli -- Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Guillermo. Good morning, everybody, and before we begin, I
would like to ask you to carefully review the cautionary statement on slide 2.
We will be making forward-looking statements that refer to our estimates to
our plans and expectations that could differ materially due to factors we
note on this slide. And also, although our financial currency is the U.S.
dollar, our financial statements are published in Argentine pesos, based on
IFRS, and on this occasion to let you better understand our key financial and
operating results, unless otherwise explained, the calculation of the main
financial figures is in U.S. dollars, unless derived from the calculation of the
consolidated financial results expressed in Argentine pesos, using the
average exchange rate for each period.
2019 was a very difficult year for Argentina, for the local oil industry and for
YPF. We operated in a very adverse context, and believe we have performed
extremely well in managing the different variables under our control. Strong
operating cash flow, financial discipline, reduction in opex and improved oil
production performance, especially in unconventionals. We now obtain
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about 90% of our revenues in Argentina, and the local economy was
particularly weak, with a GDP reduction of 2%, internal consumption down
more than 5%, inflation of almost 54%, and the revaluation around 60%.
Although international crude oil prices were below the previous year, local
prices were further affected by the devaluation in the first half of the year
and by the freeze the previous government put in place in August.
Average local fuel prices expressed in dollars were the lowest of the last 10
years. In addition, natural gas local market prices were also well below the
previous year, mainly as a consequence of a natural gas glut, resulting from
the subsidy known as Resolution 46. The imposition of capital controls and
the volatility around the presidential elections added to the negative
investment climate in 2019, that YPF needed to adapt to and that as Ignacio
will later explain, we did react rapidly and adjusted capex and opex in the
fourth quarter. However, our low breakeven shale oil projects has allowed us
to maintain a level of activity well above that of our competitors. Therefore,
with less affection of long-term growth prospects.
In this context, full year revenues were down 11% to $13.7 billion and
EBITDA was down 18% to $3.6 billion, just an inch short of our last
guidance. However, operating cash flow stood very strong at $4.3 billion, in
line with 2018. Therefore, net debt remained essentially flat, in line with our
commitment to strict financial discipline. Full year earnings were negatively
affected by the net impairment of our natural gas assets for $540 million,
which had been recorded in the third quarter. As a consequence of the
lower price environment, we expect for the near future. No further
impairment was recorded in the fourth quarter.
Now, let me do a review of last year's operations, going through some main
highlights, and then share a flavor of what we are seeing for 2020. We took
advantage of our broad portfolio to allocate capital into more profitable
projects, which are all crude oil oriented. Natural gas resources are vast,
and the results of our last wells in different shale blocks were all great, but
low local prices and an oversupplied market thus incentivized our
investments, and therefore, we shifted all of that activity to the oil window.
Therefore, we consolidated our shale oil investments in the cluster around
Loma Campana, La Amarga Chica and Bandurria Sur, achieving significant
improvements that resulted in that breakeven price reduction I just
mentioned. We know we do not control commodity prices, but we do
control the breakeven price at which projects are profitable, and the
combination of increasing productivities and a reduction in capex resulted
in such reduction in breakeven prices for Vaca Muerta.
We also invested in delineation of additional potential development clusters,
with encouraging results in the north of the play in Bajo del Toro, where we
are partners with Equinor, and are already drilling a six well pad these days
and also just south of Loma Campana. But with less clear results in other
areas that we will not be pursuing for now. And as I have repeatedly said in
the past, this is not just about Vaca Muerta. Last year after encouraging
results in two pilot projects, we announced the decision to massively deploy
enhanced oil recovery. I'm very proud to announce that we already have our
first 10 polymer injection units displayed in our fields, and we are about to
make a final investment decision for another 10 injection plants to be
installed this year.
During 2019, we continued the divestment of non-core mature assets by
closing the sale of four conventional blocks in Neuquen and additional two
in Chubut. We also secured high quality shale oil acreage, first by
purchasing 10,000 acres in Aguada del Chanar, which is contiguous to La
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well design, migrating to use 6.75 quarter inch casing, improving the rate of
penetration. Also, we upgraded a quarter of the rig fleet to high spec. At the
moment, we count with six high-spec rigs and we will have all of our rigs
upgraded during this year. With all of this, we will definitely reduce our
drilling days. We also keep going longer on our laterals. For instance, we are
putting 64 frac stages in one four kilometer longwell. Every single well is
geosteered, every single well is stimulated using high density completion,
and we are not done yet.
Bandurria Sur is one of our main shale oil blocks, and I believe provides a
good example of how we intend to create value, without taking any
rationally high exposure for a company of our size. We obtained an
unconventional concession in 2015, that entail significant commitments.
Subsequently in 2017, we farmed out 49% of the block to Schlumberger at
$7,200 per acre valuation. At the time, the field did not have a single
horizontal well. Schlumberger carried us in the investments needed to
derisk the block, while we jointly decided to accelerate the development of
the core subleased part of the block. In 2019, Schlumberger decided to exit
these type of equity investments globally, and run a sale process that
resulted in Shell and Equinor jointly acquiring their stake at a valuation
above $12,000 per acre, and this was approximately a month ago. Now
Shell and Equinor already partners of YPF in other shale oil areas, are also
acquiring an 11% stake from us at a premium, so we have a more balanced
shareholder structure 40-30-30 where YPF remains as the operator. The
implied valuation is $14,000 per acre. But as a pilot demonstrated, that not
all of the acres are developable, the real multiple is still higher, better
developable area. This use of transactions show the success of our model
of bringing along partners to help us derisk and increase value of our
assets, and it highlights the underlying value of our Vaca Muerta acreage.
In 2019, we committed to replicate the excellent results we had obtained in
Loma Campana in the adjacent areas of La Amarga Chica and Bandurria.
With the objective of expanding this core shale oil development hub. Last
year, together with our partners, we invested $1.3 billion in these areas, and
we have agreed to invest almost 40% more in 2020, to continue with the
ramp up in production. By April 2019, we started evacuating our crude oil
through the new 88 kilometer long Loma Campana-Lago Pellegrini pipeline,
pumping production from this hub to the trunk pipeline system. We are
doubling the capacity of our Loma Campana oil treating facility, and building
new ones in each of the other two core blocks. We are also expanding our
sand plan, to ensure that we can cope with the increasing activity, while
keeping control on costs and achieving last mile efficiencies, through the
utilization of our own sandboxes.
The bottom of the slide, we can see the full development for each of these
fields, where we view a plateau production above 75,000 barrels per day in
each of them, and actually much higher in Loma Campana. And that hub
can still grow, as we have recently acquired acreage to the east in Aguada
del Chanar and we also have to the west, with Pluspetrol in La Calera and
there are still other areas to be derisked.
We believe many of our conventional fields are old, but not necessarily too
mature, as recovery factors are still low and can grow from an average of
25% after secondary recovery, to an average of 33% with tertiary recovery.
That is why in 2018, we decided to take EUR more seriously, and after a few
years in pilot mode, we made the decision of accelerating its development.
We purchased and installed 10 polymer injection plants in the Golfo San
Jorge, and Neuquen basins and the initial results of the first two plants in
Grimbeek in Chubut, were better and faster than expected. As shown in the
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questions.
Questions
Operator
and Answers:
[Operator Instructions]. And from Bank of America we have Frank McGann.
Please go ahead.
Frank McGann -- Bank of America -- Analyst
Okay, thank you very much. I was wondering if you could just talk about
your spending plans, not so much the level, but how you're thinking about
allocation of capital right now between oil and gas, between shale and
tertiary investments? What factors are leading you to emphasize certain
areas versus others, and what could change potentially, that might make
you, for example, go back to a little bit more of a focus on gas?
Daniel Cristian Gonzalez Casartelli -- Chief Executive Officer
Good morning, Frank. Thank you. Well, in terms of the breakdown between
oil and gas, what I can tell you is that, we are only investing in a few natural
gas projects, which are not operated by us, and with good prospects. And
in addition to that, in finalizing some facilities related to natural gas
development. As I said earlier, to make sure that we are not putting at risk,
long-term growth prospects. But in all we are talking about a couple of
hundred million dollars of total capex. So really, really low.
In terms of the investment in oil and you asked conventional versus
unconventional, I'd say 60% of the investment is in unconventionals and
40% in conventional. So we are trying to preserve a balance and we are still
seeing opportunities in conventional production, in addition to the
opportunities that everybody has discussed and that we have discussed at
length during the call on the unconventionals.
Now, how we are going to be investing those monies in the unconventional?
I would say the following. We are going to be much more focused in
investing in those areas, which are already under full development mode,
that is when -- where we can bring that oil off the ground faster, where we
have proven already the economics, and therefore, it makes all the sense in
the world to us to focus on that and doing less delineation and less piloting
as we have been doing in the last couple of years, which has worked very
well for us. Otherwise, we would not be in a position to develop these
blocks today. But given the restrictions, it's probably not a year to invest
that heavily in delineation. Having said that, we do believe that there are a
few opportunities outside of the three main blocks. And as I mentioned,
Aguada del Chanar is one, Bajo del Toro is another one, and Bajada de
Anelo is the third one. So, we will keep investing, but less heavily in some
other shale areas outside of the three core.
Frank McGann -- Bank of America -- Analyst
Okay, thanks. Just a follow-up is, how do the returns vary based on -- and I
know there are a whole range here for all of these categories, but the
average returns in shale investments versus the conventional?
Daniel Cristian Gonzalez Casartelli -- Chief Executive Officer
Frank, as you know, we have never disclosed expected IRRs for any of our
projects. You know that we have a cut-off rate of 13%. But I can tell you,
shale oil projects have expected returns well above that cut off rate.
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Sorry, if I may make the question a different way. I'm not asking for the
projections about the FX rate or the Brent prices per se. I'm just asking, how
do you think that YPF would address or aim to follow this volatility from the
different variables through the course of 2020, because clearly in 2019 the
company was unable to follow this volatility from different variables. So just
trying to get a bit of a better sense on how do you think that by 2020
onwards, I mean we should see a bit more correlation between the domestic
prices I guess the international prices? That was my question. I'm sorry, if I
was not clear in the first one?
Guillermo Emilio Nielsen -- Chairman of the Board
Well it may be the case certainly, it may be the case in particular with this
very low prices we are looking in the international markets, it may well be
that we get to a situation in which domestic markets are more linked to
international prices. But as I said with this level of I wouldn't say volatility,
but downside slide that we're going through, I don't feel confident as to
elaborate further on this. But it's possible. It's possible that as you imply I
think we will be more -- the domestic prices will be more connected to
international prices.
Luiz Carvalho -- UBS -- Analyst
Okay, thank you.
Operator
From Raymond James, we have Pavel Molchanov. Please go ahead.
Pavel Molchanov -- Raymond James -- Analyst
Thank you for taking the question. You said that there is almost no gas
activity in Argentina now by you or by any other producers. Does the
government understand this? And is there any suggestion of creating
revising the subsidy program from similar for example to 2017 that would
incentivize operators to begin investing in gas once again?
Daniel Cristian Gonzalez Casartelli -- Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Pavel. Yes, I -- maybe I oversimplified when I said there was no
activities. Clearly no activity in Neuquen. There is some very limited drilling
activity in the south, but really limited. And when I say there's no activity in
Neuquen, it's not just us, it's most of the market. Now prices in Argentina
for natural gas are market prices. The -- unfortunately, OK? Because we are
in a oversupplied market, OK? And that's why consumers in a way are
profiting from oversupply.
And the alternative of import as you know because you follow closely LNG
global markets. It's not as dear as it was in the past, OK? So I think the one
difference to a few years ago is that shale gas development in Argentina
doesn't need any subsidies, OK? And the subsidy program in place actually
goes away in 2021 and 2022. I'm not sure, I think it's 2021. And we haven't
heard of any plans of renewing any subsidy program, because again I don't
think there's a need to renew the subsidy program.
Now as I said these are market prices today oversupply at some point, not
very far from today, we're going to go from oversupply to short of supply,
OK? And I think prices at some point will stabilize above where they are
today. And I think that's the way we're looking at -- that's why we said, hey
listen, we have plenty of natural gas opportunities each and every well we
have drilled in Vaca Muerta where natural gas objective has had very
positive results.
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So we wait and see. We are not eliminating in any way the prospects that --
we are not writing off our opportunity for natural gas for the future. All we
are saying is, we need a slightly higher price and more important that prices
we need certainty that we're going to be able to sell our gas 360 days a
year another 180. So that's what we're looking at. I think everybody
understands locally, the government, the rest of the players. It's just a
market in transition.
Pavel Molchanov -- Raymond James -- Analyst
Understood. And then following up on that last fall at the Analyst Day, you
talked about growing production on average 5% to 7% per year over the
next five years. Obviously, that will not happen in 2020. Are you still
anticipating, accelerating growth to that 5% level in 2021 and beyond?
Daniel Cristian Gonzalez Casartelli -- Chief Executive Officer
I think so Pavel. As we said, with all the capital restrictions, we are going to -
- we expect to grow crude oil production by 2% this year. So we have all the
comfort that we can grow 5% or actually much higher next year. Now with
gas, it's tricky because the easy answer is -- to your question is yes 2%. But
from a much lower base, OK because we're going to be producing 35
million cubic meters a day. This winter where two years ago, we were
producing 45 million cubic meters a day. So can we grow 5% per year out of
a 35 million, yes definitely. But the base is lower than before.
So all we are doing when we make restriction decisions on capex is try not
to affect -- there's always some affection, but try to affect the less, the
growth, the long-term growth prospects, OK? And I think they continue to
be there. From the last Analyst Day meeting to today, we can tell you that
productivity of our wells is higher costs are lower. So there's no change in
the strategic direction that we outlined at that point. And I do believe that
we can grow at or beyond those levels, although we are not providing any
long-term growth guidance today.
Pavel Molchanov -- Raymond James -- Analyst
Okay, thank you.
Operator
From Citigroup, we have Pedro Medeiros. Please go ahead.
Pedro Medeiros -- Citigroup -- Analyst
Hey, good morning guys. So I have a couple of questions. Most of them
linked to your share development plans and results. Let me start with a
question on how was the performance on the fourth quarter. So considering
the ongoing changes in volatility in FX oil prices and production resuming
growth in some of your core assets, would you mind sharing or giving some
reference of how lifting costs behaved in your core shale developments,
OK? You've given that disclosure before? So I just wanted to understand
how those variables have impacted lifting costs in the fourth quarter?
My second question is, if you can give some business plan updates for the
development of campaigns in Cluster 2 and Cluster 3, I think you have
already collected some results from drilling Cluster 2. So if you mind sharing
some color of how those results look like? And I have a third question
around production. Thank you very much for disclosing results on your EOR
tertiary pilot, it looks very interesting.
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And I just want to make sure I'm looking at it in the right way? You disclosed
an investment of $150 million for an expected incremental production of 29
million barrels. So does that mean development costs on a marginal basis
for these projects will be around $5 to $7 a barrel? Is there any meaningful
impact in lifting cost? Those are my questions. Thank you.
Daniel Cristian Gonzalez Casartelli -- Chief Executive Officer
Hi Pedro. Well let me start from the last one. Yes the development cost for
this initial deployment of EOR is very low, OK. It is the low-hanging fruit also,
OK. So we cannot necessarily extrapolate this to 100% of the EOR
opportunity. And as you know the EOR economics are really different to the
shale, the capex is lower. And the opex is actually higher because of the
cost of the polymer, OK. So I think to get deeper in terms of the economics,
we need to wait some time. All we are saying today is listen, we made a
decision 1.5 years, two years ago, we delivered in terms of making the
investment plans. And the good news is that the initial reaction has been
better and as I said faster than originally explained. And that probably
speeds up the decision of duplicating or doubling what we have done in
tertiary this year and that's going to be on investments between 2020 and
2021.
But frankly only scratching the surface, most of the polymer injection plants
have been in operation just a few months. So it's not worth getting into
more detail in my opinion. What we will commit is to continue to provide
quarterly updates so everybody can actually see this opportunity is a huge
as it could be or not, OK. And the other thing I would say is, the breakevens
for EOR that we are seeing are consistent with current crude oil prices, OK.
So this is not something that we need much higher crude oil prices to make
it work, OK. That's that on the EOR.
On the cluster on the North, we haven't done a lot more than what we
disclosed last year. You know that we have two wells in operation in Bajo del
Toro. Those wells are producing very well at/or above the well type curve.
So that there we are very comfortable. We are already drilling a 6-well pad
in Bajo del Toro or about to start drilling these days. That's all we're going to
be doing this year, just this 6-well pad. So hopefully in the second half of
the year, we will have that information to see if the encouraging results of
the first part can be replicated in the rest of the block.
We've also drilled a few wells with less compelling results so far. Of course
all of them produce oil, OK, because we know that source rock is there. But
the productivity is such that with current costs and opex -- and the capex
sorry, it's probably -- they probably go to the end of our priority list and we
are not going to be pursuing in the short term. So as I said when I
responded to Frank's question at the beginning, we are going to be doing
less piloting this year and therefore we're going to be gaining less
information this year regarding other blocks that are not under
development.
But bottom line is, at least we have a block up there Bajo del Toro with very,
very encouraging results and where we have a great partner Equinor and we
have jointly decided to continue piloting that block. Now finally your first
question in terms of lifting cost for the shale, it's below $6 per barrel, OK.
And it's 15% below 2018. So lifting cost or opex generally this is more opex
which is actually higher than lifting cost looks very, very promising on a
shale. That's not an issue. We also said the development cost is also
looking good below $10 a barrel in Loma Campana in the low teens in La
Amarga Chica Bandurria and there's no reason over the long-term that the
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have seen that the stocks has dramatically collapsed. And I wanted to know
your thoughts on potentially putting in place a buyback program. So those
are my two questions.
Daniel Cristian Gonzalez Casartelli -- Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Daniel. Yes, we have many times considered. But frankly, there's
no point on us with competitive advantages that we have in Argentina that
we have developed in Argentina and a proof of that is how majors and some
of the best players in the world come and give us money to operate for
them, we don't have those same competitive advantages outside of
Argentina. So trying -- maybe in the future we will but it's definitely not the
case today A. And B, we have limited CapEx. We did a good part of the call
today explaining why is that we are limiting capex for the year and that we
have more opportunities to pursue than the ones that we are actually
pursuing today, OK. So I think that we have plenty of food in our plates in
Argentina for the short term.
Now we are doing some studies of unconventionals outside of Argentina,
OK? And I am not going to be elaborating further but we are doing studies.
Because maybe in the future as we have become the largest shale player
outside of the U.S., maybe in the future we can replicate those competitive
advantages that we have in Argentina elsewhere. But it's not something
which is at the top of our priorities today. On share price, I can tell you, this
is a priority. Guillermo is talking to us every day about that. It was a big part
of our board discussion yesterday. But again in this situation in which we are
trying to preserve capital, we probably don't think that the best use of that
capital again over the short-term is a buyback program. But it's definitely
something that is always out there in the works for us. And that if time
comes and the financial situation improves, it's something that we will
seriously consider.
Daniel Guardiola -- BTIG -- Analyst
Thank you, Daniel.
Operator
From Goldman Sachs, we have Bruno Amorim. Please go ahead.
Bruno Amorim -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst
Hi, good morning. So I have two questions. The first one, I just wanted some
help to reconcile your guidance, you are guiding for flat net debt, which
implies breakeven at the free cash flow level roughly. While you're guiding
for $3 billion EBITDA to $2.8 billion capex...
Daniel Cristian Gonzalez Casartelli -- Chief Executive Officer
A bit louder please.
Bruno Amorim -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst
Hi, can you hear me well?
Daniel Cristian Gonzalez Casartelli -- Chief Executive Officer
Got a bit louder please.
Ignacio Rostagno -- Investor and Market Relations Officer
But a bit louder please? Can you repeat louder?
Bruno Amorim -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst
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30/3/2020 YPF S.A. (YPF) Q4 2019 Earnings Call Transcript
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