ESTIMATION

Example:
In the following data, X = number of sessions attended by 25 trainees in a leadership
training seminar, while Y = scores obtained by the same trainees in a test given after the seminar.

X Y XY X2
3 65 195 9
6 79 474 36
2 53 106 4
3 70 210 9
7 88 616 49
5 70 350 25
2 50 100 4
8 89 712 64
6 77 462 36
4 75 300 16
9 90 810 81
4 75 300 16
4 75 300 16
9 91 819 81
3 63 189 9
5 70 350 25
9 92 828 81
8 85 680 64
5 80 400 25
7 87 609 49
7 80 560 49
5 85 425 25
8 88 704 64
6 85 510 36
3 71 213 9
138 1933 11222 882

Solution:
 1. Set the LSRL equation or determine regression equation for predicting Y from X.

a = { (ƸY) (ƸX2) - (ƸX) (ƸXY) } / { N (ƸX2) - (ƸX)2 }

= { (1933) (882) – (138) (11222) } / { 25 (882) – (138)2

= 51.99
b = { N (ƸXY) - (ƸX) (ƸY) } / { N (ƸX2) - (ƸX)2 }
= { 25 (11222) – (138) (1933) } / { 25 (882) – (138)2

= 4.59
y = a + bx

y = 51.99 + 4.59x

2. Predict the mean score of trainee who attend seminar for 12 sessions, 16 session.

If x = 12 If x = 16
y = a + bx y = a + bx
= 51.99 + 4.59 (12) = 51.99 + 4.59 (16)

y =107.07 y =125.43
FORECASTING
Example:
The number of faculty-owned personal computers at the AGM University increased
dramatically between 2013 and 2019.

Year X Y XY X2
2013 -3 50 -150 9
2014 -2 110 -220 4
2015 -1 350 -350 1
2016 0 1020 0 0
2017 1 1950 1950 1
2018 2 2560 5120 4
2019 3 3710 11130 9
  0 9750 17480 28
Solution:
 1. Develop a linear estimating equation

a = (ƸY) / N a = (ƸXY) / X2
= (9750) / 7 = (17480) / 28

= 1392.86 = 624.29
y = a + bx

y = 1392.86 + 624.29x

2. Estimate the number of PC that will be in use in the university in 2022 and in 2025

In 2022: x = 6 In 2025: x = 9
y = a + bx y = a + bx
= 1392.86 + 624.29 (6) = 1392.86 + 624.29 (9)

y =5138.6 = 5139 y =7011.47 = 7012

3. If there are 8000 faculty members in 2030, what will be the teacher-computer ratio?

In 2030: x = 14
y = a + bx
= 1392.86 + 624.29 (14)

y =10132.92 = 10133

Example:
 The table below shows the sales figure of a firm for past ten years. Assuming that the past
trend will continue in the near future, forecast sales in 2022 and 2025.

Year X Y XY X2
2010 -9 436 -3924 81
2011 -7 469 -3283 49
2012 -5 483 -2415 25
2013 -3 488 -1464 9
2014 -1 514 -514 1
2015 1 516 516 1
2016 3 528 1584 9
2017 5 532 2660 25
2018 7 538 3766 49
2019 9 550 4950 81
  0 5054 1876 330

Solution:

a = (ƸY) / N a = (ƸXY) / X2
= (5054) / 10 = (1876) / 330

= 505.4 = 5.69
y = a + bx

y = 505.4 + 5.69x
In 2022: x = 15 In 2025: x = 21
y = a + bx y = a + bx
= 505.4 + 5.69 (15) = 505.4 + 5.69 (21)

y =590.75 y =624.89