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How the communications industry can drive post-COVID-19 economic recovery

Wednesday, December 16, 2020 | 10:00am GMT

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 Speakers

Wei Shi Wenbing Yao Tilly Gilbert

Intelligence Content Manager Vice President, Business Senior Consultant
Telecoms.com Intelligence Development and Partnerships STL Partners
Huawei Technologies (UK) Co., Ltd.

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 How the communications
industry can drive post COVID-19
economic recovery
COVID-19 has badly damaged the economy. Now the
world is coming out the other side, it is time for the
communications industry to lead and drive the recovery.
Wednesday 16th December 2020

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 STL Partners helps our clients innovate, grow, and stay ahead
of existing and new competition in a digital world

Research Consulting Events

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 This presentation draws on material from STL Partners’
programme of 5G research, supported by Huawei

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 Our analysis and modelling approach

1 2 3 4 Survey with 200+

Use case
Interviews with Detailed use case industry
brainstorming and
industry development – 3 executives to
industry
executives for each industry quantify 5G
prioritisation
benefits

5 Quantify industry 6 7 8
benefits for Implications for Implications for
Extrapolate to
transport & telecoms regulators and
other industries
logistics & energy operators governments
bottom up

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 How COVID-19 has
changed the game

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 COVID has changed the 5G landscape; countries are focused
on GDP recovery
Impact of COVID on GDP in 2020 for ten biggest countries globally
25000
13% 

20000
GDP in USD billions

6% 
15000

10000

8% 
5000 6%  14%  12%  9%  11%  10%  12% 

0
United China Japan Germany United France India Italy Brazil Canada
States Kingdom
Pre COVID prediction Post COVID prediction

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 The biggest change to our predictions comes from our
transport and logistics deep dive, rather than COVID’s impact
Benefits to industry from 5G enabled use cases
$1.6

$1.4

$1.2
Media, sports & entertainment
$1.0 Agriculture
USD trillions

Construction
$0.8 Energy & extractives
Health
$0.6 Transport & distribution
Retail
$0.4 Manufacturing

$0.2

$0.0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

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 Some industries have been particularly hard hit, but in other
areas acceleration of digital use cases has occurred

+ +
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 Some industries have been particularly hard hit, but in other
areas acceleration of digital use cases has occurred
More demand for
data hungry
applications

Clearer business More investment

case for and
investment in understanding of
digital health customer needs

Better products
Higher adoption released to the
market

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 Remote patient monitoring: how it works & benefits
Sensors/wearables gather
data on the patient e.g.:
• Heart/breathing rates
• Blood glucose level
• Blood pressure
• HD video for incidents
• Core temperature
• Platelet/blood cell counts
What’s happening here?
• Data is streamed to an
analytics platform and
compared against
historical and “normal”
data
• Consolidating different
data points
• Etc.
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• Spend fewer days in the
hospital/care homes
• Increased insight into their
own care
• Less travel
Patients
• Can treat more patients:
• Access/reach
• Turnover
• Higher quality of care due to
data driven insights
Healthcare
professional
• Higher patient throughput
• Better quality of care
• Decreased waiting times
• Fewer unnecessary instances of
Data management patient care (inc emergency
and analytics services)
platform Hospital/
Healthcare provider
• Healthier population means
decreased pay-outs
• Higher output for same cost
means budgets can remain
stable even with growing
Government/ population
Insurer 13
 Some industries have been particularly hard hit, but in other areas acceleration
of digital use cases has occurred

Adoption curves for remote patient Adoptive curves for remote patient
monitoring - 2019 prediction monitoring - post COVID prediction
14% 14%

12% 12%

10% 10%

8% 8%

6% 6%

4% 4%

2% 2%

0% 0%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
High income Upper middle income High income Upper middle income
Lower middle income Low income Lower middle income Low income

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 Transport and logistics: a
brief overview of the impact
of 5G

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 Overall, the logistics industry is facing significant pressure and
is focused on improved operating efficiency not growth
Key factors driving logistics industry growth
UK Top 100 hauliers reported operating margin

– + 3%
4% 4% 4%

2%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: FTA logistics report 2019

UK logistics industry focus is cost-cutting and efficiency

Cost focus: 43% Growth focus: 15% Unclear or no focus: 42%

30%
24%
13% 10%
7% 5% 7%
2% 0% 2%

Source: FTA logistics industry survey, 2019/19

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 There are tangible benefits 5G can bring to digital use cases
already being explored within the logistics industry
5G will offer the high definition, high quality, The latency on 4G is almost okay, but when
raw data streaming capability which you you've got heavy traffic the latency gets
can't do very well on 4G at the moment worse and worse – 5G is a potential way
Programme Director, 5G Testbed around this challenge
COO, Traffic insights start-up

Mobility
Latency Bandwidth Capacity Battery Life
Reliability Seamless
Roundtrip Data rates of Up to 1 million Up to 10 years
99.999% transfer
latency under 100MB/s on devices per battery life for
network between radio
10 average (peak square low power
reliability nodes up to
milliseconds at 20GB/s) kilometre (IoT) devices
500km/h

Near instant deliver Stream high- Carry data from many Use 5G for mission- Data availability on Reduce the cost of
of data to/from definition and ultra more sensors critical applications fast-moving mobile maintaining devices
sensors enables high-definition video enabling a more where failure is not assets – trains, cars, and improve energy
real-time capture accurate picture of an tolerated etc. without being efficiency
and process asset to be captured dropped
automation
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 Connected traffic infrastructure: how it works & benefits
Sensors/video cameras gather data on:
• Types of vehicles using the roads
• Traffic conditions
• Accidents
Data management
platform
What’s happening here?
• Data is streamed to video analytics
platform
• Aggregated data points are
compared against historical and
“normal” data
• Real-time alerts triggered for
abnormal activity
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Drivers
• Real-time updates/alerts on
road conditions, accidents
etc.
• Car automated responses (in
the future)
Emergency services
• Notification of accidents
• Real-time insights in fastest
route to accident incl. traffic
lights giving priority to
emergency vehicles
Public transport providers
• Analysis of routes to
maximise usage
• Faster information on need to
provide additional / reroute
services
Local authority / infrastructure mgmt.
• Reduced air pollution from
queuing traffic
• Better insights into road
conditions
• Fewer accidents
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 The three transport and logistics use cases deliver both direct
and indirect benefits to the global economy
Percentage increase on overall GDP by industry Impact of 5G enabled use cases on the transport
in 2030 300 and logistics industry
6%
75%
250
5%
2.16%

4% 200

USD billions
3% 150
4.94%
2% 4.03% 3.98%
3.54% 100
1%
1.57%
1.04% 0.91% 0.69% 50
0% 0% 80%
0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Direct impact Indirect impact

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 Connected traffic infrastructure can provide safety and
environmental impacts benefits as well
Potential decrease in up to 0.35
million road traffic accidents
globally by 2030…
Thanks to real-time notifications to
drivers of accident causing
behaviour as well as faster
response times by emergency
services when accidents do
happen
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Potential decrease in up to 68
million tonnes of fuel equivalent
globally by 2030…
Thanks to reduced idling, time
spent in traffic jams and
encouragement of more efficient
driving techniques
20
 What are the implications
and recommendations for
operators?

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 Telecoms is moving from a horizontal to a vertical strategy

From large-scale Cloud IaaS:

Voice
standardised Compute
commodity
Past Messaging
Storage
Connectivity
Networking
products for all…

SaaS SaaS
…to higher-value New: New:
solutions tailored Now & • Skills • Skills
PaaS • Partners PaaS • Partners
for specific target future • Business • Business
industries models models
NaaS IaaS

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 With limited resources, operators must select which verticals
to focus on when moving beyond core connectivity services
Degree to which connected
technology can change the industry
Low Medium High
Fishing Healthcare
Level at which economies

National

Construction Renewable Telecoms

energy
sweet spot
of scale operate

Mining Manufacturing
Agriculture
Transport &
logistics Banking
Oil & gas
Global

Insurance

Media
Fashion
Wellness

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 Each ecosystem role has unique characteristics

Revenue & Market & Fit with

profit pool competition current skills

Fragemented specialists,
Solutions and applications 70+%
intense competition
Low

Consolidated, large tech

Application enablement 20-25% Medium
players, intense competition

Consolidated, large telcos,

Network-as-a-service 5-10% High
intense competition

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 Selecting ecosystem role(s) – understanding the risk/reward
trade-off
Telco strategic roles summary

Applications Be ambitious and risk

High and
solutions implementation failure?

Size of Application

opportunity
Medium enablement versus

Low
Network-as- Be cautious and risk being
a-service
Area 1
squeezed by market decline?
Low Medium High
Ability to compete
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 Operators need to align with governments and industry players
to coordinate the ecosystem

Engage with governments /

regulators

Prove their pedigree as

good ecosystem players

Align with the industry

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 Thank you
To get in touch with STL Partners please contact
us:
tilly.gilbert@stlpartners.com

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 Q&A

Wei Shi Wenbing Yao Tilly Gilbert

Intelligence Content Manager Vice President, Business Senior Consultant
Telecoms.com Intelligence Development and Partnerships STL Partners
Huawei Technologies (UK) Co., Ltd.

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