VI International Conference on Forest Fire Research

D. X. Viegas (Ed.), 2010

Implementation of vulnerability components in the calculation

and mapping of fire risk indexes in the Wildland-Urban
Interface. Approach and case studies in Spain

David Caballero(1), Clara Quesada(2)

MeteoGrid, Almansa 88, 28040 Madrid, Spain
(1) david@meteogrid.com
(2) clara@meteogrid.com

Abstract
Fires in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and intermix areas is a growing and expanding
problem in several countries in Europe such as Portugal, Greece, France, Spain, Croatia and Italy
among others. In a general way, it is observed that the fuel load in the WUI areas is increasing, the
distance between houses and vegetation is reducing, and the total exposed length of façades per
territorial unit area is increased. Besides the ground truth in the Mediterranean cases show that
houses are made primarily of non-ignitable materials, and when burned and destroyed is because
the fire manages to enter and ignite the flammable materials inside. in most of Mediterranean
countries a higher density of houses commonly entails a reduction of available fuels, hence the
house and road density and aggregation strongly modifies fire spread, fire behaviour but also the
risk spatial distribution. The considered vulnerable elements, such as people, animals in property
vehicles, houses, infrastructures of common use, other properties and natural environment, are
associated to specific WUI types which can, in the end, be identified either, through manual
interpretation of ortophotos or though spatial analysis using GIS tools. The method followed for
vulnerability and risk mapping and applied in study cases in Spain is presented, and the main
advantages and limitations discussed in this paper.
Keywords: wildland urban interface, risk mapping, vulnerability, GIS analysis

1. Introduction and background

Fires in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and intermix areas is a growing and
expanding problem in several countries in Europe such as Portugal, Greece, France, Spain,
Croatia and Italy among others.

The abandonment of rural areas and the sprawl of residential areas in the outskirts of
large cities into the forested areas are two land-use transformation scenarios which are
entailing more frequent and dangerous fire episodes involving houses and infrastructures.
This is due to the continuous appearance and modification of spatial relationships between
the available forest fuel load and the constructions. In a general way, it is observed that the
fuel load in the WUI areas is increasing, the distance between houses and vegetation is
reducing, and the total exposed length of façades per territorial unit area is increased.

While most of the existing research literature points to the fire behaviour,
suppression effectiveness, and structure ignition in the WUI and intermix areas, the ground
truth in the Mediterranean cases tells us a completely different story: houses are made
primarily of non-ignitable materials, and when burned and destroyed, in most of cases once
the main fire front passes, is because the fire manages to enter and ignite the flammable
 VI International Conference on Forest Fire Research
D. X. Viegas (Ed.), 2010

materials inside. Some of the structural elements typically considered as highly vulnerable,
such as roofs, present a different behaviour when facing fire components. For example tile
roofs, which are very frequent in Mediterranean countries, show an inherent and very
efficient resistance to all type of fire components (radiation, convection, firebrands) when
they are in good shape and clean, but when just a weak point is encountered (openings,
holes, dislocated or broken tiles etc.) and the outside-inside fuel continuity is present, it
allows the pass of fire inside and entails the destruction of the house.

While in USA, Australia and Canada, among other countries, the presence of more
houses means an increase of fuel load, in most of Mediterranean countries a higher density
of houses commonly entails a reduction of available fuels. In this accounting of unburnable
points the road and street network must be also considered, which is actually connecting
houses thus creating structural dependencies and defining urban units, and the resulting
urban tissue and vegetation pattern. Hence the house and road density and aggregation
strongly modifies fire spread, fire behaviour but also the risk spatial distribution.

Besides in Spain, as well as in other Mediterranean countries, the main protection

operation in a wildfire conflagration is proceed with evacuation of people to a safer place,
and more rarely the confining and defence (shelter-in-place) But instead of a pre-planed,
trained and well performed evacuation process done with enough time ahead, the reality is
that most of the people in these situations are literally running away in the very last minute,
or even entering to the conflagration area from a safer point in order to save animals or
goods of their property, following uncontrolled or even chaotic patterns in an environment
of smoke, fire and stress they are not used to. Hence, it can be expected that most of the
exposure of people to the sources of danger occurs not inside the houses but in the roads
when in transit to a safer place.

All of these reflections and observations have steered the research efforts of the last
10 years and the consideration of vulnerable elements which are common in our cases, such
as people (owners, dwellers, fire fighters), animals in property (which have a ‘call effect’ in
owners), vehicles, houses, infrastructures of common use, other properties and natural
environment.

The reality also says that such vulnerable elements are potentially and more
frequently exposed to a number of sources of danger which not necessarily is the flame
front (the convective or radiative heat), but firebrands and smoke, the latest frequently
involved in car accidents, disorientations and intoxications. Other induced sources of
danger must be considered as well, such as toxic gases, presence of downed electric power
cables, debris fall, explosions etc., which potentially could create new emergencies inside
the fire emergency itself.

Given also that many of the vulnerable elements are not fixed in a specific location,
such as a house or an installation, but are moving along roads, streets and trails in vehicles
or by their own means, it is difficult to determine a specific snapshot of the potential
exposition and risk in a WUI area, as the main source of danger, the fire front itself, is also
a dynamic, changing factor. With all this complexity in our hands, after all these years of
study, the practical and realistic approach proposed to the planning of prevention measures
on the WUI areas is that of trying to minimise the chaos in case of an forest fire emergency.
 VI International Conference on Forest Fire Research
D. X. Viegas (Ed.), 2010

After the preliminary characterisation and mapping of risk due to forest fires in the
wildland-urban interface in Spain (Caballero et al., 2007), for which a preliminary
catalogue of WUI types was obtained, several regional Governments took the decision of
repeating the work at much higher detail to rank municipalities according to the severity
and extension of such a problem. Thus Balearic Islands and Navarra were the two first
Autonomies for which a method based in the identification and marking of WUI types, the
estimation of the associated vulnerability and, finally, the spacialisation of such values, the
risk mapping and prioritisation of municipalities for prevention measures.

2. Methods

In the last years, two general methods have been described and applied in Europe
for the identification and mapping of the WUI situations:

1. Identifying WUI types according to the house and road pattern, the degree of
clustering and the type of vegetation surrounding all these structures and
infrastructures through manual identification in ortophoto
2. Spatially analysing the distances among houses and vegetation through
house-by-house GIS analysis and remote sensing techniques

The first one has been applied in the preliminary study an characterisation of WUI
situations in Spain (Caballero et al., 2007) and Portugal, and the second one has been
mainly described by Lampin (Lampin, 2010) and applied in some WUI areas in France, but
which is now being applied to other areas in Southern Europe under the Fire Paradox and
PyroSudoe research projects.

When facing a study of characterisation and mapping of the WUI in the territory,
the initial and most straightforward approach is to take the building layer and the vegetation
layer and start with the identification of individual house-by-house analysis. But in our
experience this approach is not enough to characterise important aspects in regards to the
intrinsic aspects of WUI structures. Thus, for example, as up to today GIS analysis does not
relates the road network and the houses in what has to do with non-burnable areas and how
houses and other vulnerable elements do relate to each other through this road network,
particularly in the study of vehicles and people transit. Another important point is that
houses is a good estimation of population which is present in the area, but in reality, and
mostly for second residence areas, it is difficult to know whether a house is occupied or not.
All these considerations, among others, is pushing us to consider another approach that
includes these points in the estimation of vulnerability and risk. In fact, what we are
looking for is:

• Expected fire behaviour and scenarios, production of other sources of danger

• Number and type of houses and other vulnerable elements involved
• Spatial and temporal exposure of vulnerable elements to sources of danger
• Opportunities and limitations for fire fighting and defence
 VI International Conference on Forest Fire Research
D. X. Viegas (Ed.), 2010

To achieve the identification, characterisation and mapping of such WUI structures

using ortophotos and other remotely sensed data, it is suggested to use visual cues which
are relevant and explanatory of most of the important factors and elements. The visual cues
used are, basically:

• Number, type and aggregation of houses and road network

• Vegetation type and patterns

According to the criteria mentioned above, the following general WUI types have
been described:

A Group - Interface models with dense forest

A1. Isolated house amid a densely forested area
A2. Dispersed housing area in a forested area
A.3 Dense and uniform intermix in a forested area
A4. Intermix with straps of forest vegetation
A.5 Forest interface with a compact settlement
A.6 Forest interface with small rural town
A.7 Forest interface with a large urban area or city
A.8 Forest interface with an industrial area
A.9 Occluded forest interface in a large urban area or city

B Group - Interface models with shrubland

B.1 Isolated house amid a shrubland
B.2 Disperse housing area in a shrubland
B.3 Intermix with shrubland and ornamental vegetation
B.4 Compact settlement interface with shrubland
B.5 Interface of shrubland with a large urban area or city

C Group - Interface models on agro-forest mosaic

C.1 Isolated houses or small clusters of houses in areas of dehesa
C.2 Disseminated housing area or small rural towns surrounded by pasture or other
green agricultural area amid the forest
C.3 Town or settlement in agro-forestry mosaic

3. Study cases

Two studies in Balearic Islands and Navarra have been performed using the WUI
type identification approach, which in the end includes the following workflow:

• Visual identification of WUI types (ortophoto and field)

• Estimation of the associated vulnerability (field)
• Vulnerability mapping (GIS)
• Estimation of fire potential (GIS)
• Risk mapping (GIS)
• Zoning and prioritisation (GIS)
 VI International Conference on Forest Fire Research
D. X. Viegas (Ed.), 2010

As said above, the identification of WUI types has been performed selecting a
number of visual cues which in the end are related to the relevant elements in the WUI
types. Some new entries of the catalogue of WUI types have been described and
incorporated, which have been found in such studies.
 VI International Conference on Forest Fire Research
D. X. Viegas (Ed.), 2010

The estimation of the associated vulnerability has been done by separating the analyses of
susceptibility of the vulnerable element types and their exposure to the potential sources of
danger. While the susceptibility is intrinsic to each type of vulnerable element, the
exposition is a function to the structure of the WUI type, which are the type, density and
aggregation of houses, roads and infrastructure and the associated patterns formed with
vegetation.

The description of vulnerability functions takes all these components in

consideration for each wildland-urban interface type. The susceptibility and exposure is
estimated through measurements in field work campaigns, observation of real fires in the
interface, and the gathering of testimonials of experts and operational people in charge of
conducting the management of such emergencies.

SUSCEPTIBILIDAD
Nivel de peligro= Situación adversa FUERTE
Exposición espacial=distancia a la fuente de peligro en la que esta tiene acción directa
Exposición temporal=solo para elementos móviles (personas, personas en vehículos)
PERSONAS (estado físico y protección) LLA RAD CONV PAV HUM Tº GTOX ELECT EXPLO total puntos
Persona débil, enferma 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 35 9,7
Persona normal, adulta 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 33 9,2
Combatiente forestal 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 30 8,3
Combatiente urbano 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 4 23 6,4
VIVIENDAS (habitabilidad) todo cerrado LLA RAD CONV PAV HUM Tº GTOX total puntos
Vivienda residencial Tipo 1 de cubierta plana 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 14 5,0
Vivienda residencial Tipo 2 de cubierta de teja 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 14 5,0
Vivienda rural en buen estado 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 13 4,6
Vivienda rural sin mantener 3 1 2 3 3 2 3 17 6,1
Edificio de varias plantas (?) 2 2 2 1 3 2 3 15 5,4
Edificio de apartamentos 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 11 3,9
Instalación hotelera o complejo de bungalows 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 11 3,9
Edificio de gran población 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 9 3,2
Instalación agropecuaria 3 1 2 2 3 2 3 16 5,7
Instalación industrial 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 12 4,3
VIVIENDAS (destrucción) todo cerrado LLA RAD CONV PAV HUM Tº GTOX
Vivienda residencial Tipo 1 de cubierta plana 2 3 N/A 2 N/A N/A N/A 7 5,8
Vivienda residencial Tipo 2 de cubierta de teja 2 3 N/A 2 N/A N/A N/A 7 5,8
Vivienda rural en buen estado 2 2 N/A 2 N/A N/A N/A 6 5,0
Vivienda rural sin mantener 3 2 N/A 3 N/A N/A N/A 8 6,7
Edificio de varias plantas (?) 2 3 N/A 1 N/A N/A N/A 6 5,0
Edificio de apartamentos 1 2 N/A 1 N/A N/A N/A 4 3,3
Instalación hotelera o complejo de bungalows 1 2 N/A 1 N/A N/A N/A 4 3,3
Edificio de gran población 1 2 N/A 1 N/A N/A N/A 4 3,3
Instalación agropecuaria 3 2 N/A 2 N/A N/A N/A 7 5,8
Instalación industrial 1 2 N/A 1 N/A N/A N/A 4 3,3

Estimación de la vulnerabilidad de las tipologías de interfaz en Baleares (época de peligro)

A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 A9 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6
1.Población
Susceptibilidad (por estrado físico y protección) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Exposición 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 4 4 4 3 2 2 4 4 3 3 2 2
Densidad 1 3 4 4 3 3 4 2 3 1 3 4 3 4 3 1 2 2 3 2 2
Vulnerabilidad 1,9 5,6 7,5 7,5 4,2 4,2 3,8 2,8 2,8 1,9 5,6 7,5 4,2 3,8 2,8 1,9 3,8 2,8 4,2 1,9 1,9
2. Viales
Susceptibilidad (por tipo de viales) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Exposición 4 4 4 4 3 4 2 2 1 4 4 4 3 2 1 4 4 4 3 1 3
Densidad 1 2 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 1 2 4 4 3 1 2 2 3 3 2
Vulnerabilidad 1,9 3,8 7,5 7,5 5,6 5,6 2,8 2,8 1,4 5,6 1,9 3,8 5,6 3,8 1,4 1,9 3,8 3,8 4,2 1,4 2,8
3. Viviendas
Susceptibilidad (por tipo de viviendas) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Exposición 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 4 4 4 3 2 1 4 3 4 3 1 3
Densidad 1 2 4 4 4 3 4 2 4 1 2 4 4 4 4 1 3 3 3 4 2
Vulnerabilidad 1,3 2,5 5,0 5,0 3,8 2,8 2,5 1,3 1,3 1,3 2,5 5,0 3,8 2,5 1,3 1,3 2,8 3,8 2,8 1,3 1,9
4. Infraestructuras
Susceptibilidad (por tipo de infraestructura) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Exposición 4 4 4 4 2 3 2 2 1 4 4 4 3 2 1 4 4 3 4 1 3
Densidad 1 2 3 4 3 2 4 3 3 1 2 3 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 2
Vulnerabilidad 1,3 2,5 3,8 5,0 1,9 1,9 2,5 1,9 0,9 1,3 2,5 3,8 3,8 2,5 0,9 2,5 2,5 1,9 2,5 0,9 1,9
Vulnerabilidad total 1,6 3,6 5,9 6,3 3,9 3,6 2,9 2,2 1,6 2,5 3,1 5 4,3 3,1 1,6 1,9 3,2 3 3,4 1,4 2,1
 VI International Conference on Forest Fire Research
D. X. Viegas (Ed.), 2010

The vulnerability mapping was done by considering all the existing WUI cases in
each analysis cell of 1x1 km, and summing the obtained values.
 VI International Conference on Forest Fire Research
D. X. Viegas (Ed.), 2010

The estimation of fire potential was performed using the most frequent adverse
meteorological conditions and calculating the fire linear intensity for each square cell of
100x100 m. using FLAMMAP software. The intensity was then classified according the
fire fighting opportunities and demands, and scored according to it for every 1x1 km
analysis cell.
 VI International Conference on Forest Fire Research
D. X. Viegas (Ed.), 2010

After this, risk mapping was done using risk functions for each analysis cell of 1x1
km. The risk functions have been designed to gather the possible combinations of danger
potential and vulnerability value for each 1x1 km analysis cell, in the form of tables (for
Balearic Islands) and algebraic expressions (Navarra)
 VI International Conference on Forest Fire Research
D. X. Viegas (Ed.), 2010

The resulting map was used to identify the zones of higher values of risk and
delimitate areas of higher priority to apply prevention measures. For this zoning and
prioritisation a set of new layers and documentation has been used, such as administrative
boundaries, population density, existence of previous zoning and defence planning,
economical and social aspects, political pressure etc. Zoning and prioritisation is done in
collaboration with all the participating actors in common meetings.

4. Discussion

The two analysis methods presented have their own advantages and limitations, and
to some extent they are complementary.

The house-by-house automated spatial analysis of distances among houses and

distances between the nearby surface and aerial fuel is a good method for detailed
identification of specific interface points which present risk, thus which are candidates for
prevention planning. However, this method does not takes into account the vulnerability
inherent to each WUI type structure, considered as a unit, particularly the relationships
among houses within a settlement and their connection through the street and road network.
Besides, this method relies in the existence of an accurate and updated information layer of
buildings, and a detailed, accurate and updated forest fuel map which also includes fuels in
the intermix areas, which usually are wrongly classified as ‘urban’, hence completely
unburnable lands. What is more, in the study cases performed it has been found that
frequently the information layer of buildings does not include any data about its use or
occupation, in which case the associated vulnerability is erroneously calculated by excess
(assuming there are people inside the house) For these case complementary information
about population and population density has been used as a first approximation for correct
calculations, but detailed analysis of population distribution and occupancy periods must be
performed beforehand.

The manual classification and identification of settlement types is good at

pinpointing WUI structures, such as intermix areas, towns, dense settlements and industrial
installations, considered as units and taking into account the inherent relationships among
vulnerable elements. However, the process is very slow and it is not free of a degree of
subjectivity in the classification, especially in the cases which are more complicated to
discriminate. The marking of areas of isolated or loose spread housing is very time
consuming and inaccurate, and the productivity and accuracy of the whole process depend
on the skill and experience of the people performing the identification.

After these experiences in identifying and mapping vulnerability and risk in the
WUI areas of the Mediterranean countries, we conclude that both methods are
complementary, and that synergic advantages are obtained by using them in combination. A
house-by-house analysis provides a first look into the WUI points density and distribution,
while a WUI-type oriented analysis provides information on WUI structures and their
associated vulnerability. Efforts are being made to obtain bridge methods between two
processes, looking forward into a automated algorithm for the identification of WUI
structures using GIS analysis and covering the mentioned needs.
 VI International Conference on Forest Fire Research
D. X. Viegas (Ed.), 2010

However the above, it is important to underline certain constraints and limitations of

both methods, as well as requirements for its proper use, namely:

For the GIS spatial analysis

- Required high quality and updated maps of forest fuels
- Required updated maps of buildings
- Does not identify urban tissue and WUI structures

For the manual identification of interface types

- Required a high quality and updated ortophoto or satellite imagery
- Based in the experience and skills of analysts
- Some types may entail confusion among interface types
- Low productivity for isolated and disseminated housing

5. References

CABALLERO, D., BELTRÁN, I., VELASCO, A. (2007) Forest fires and wildland-urban
interface in Spain: types and risk distribution. In proc. of the IV International
Wildfire Conference, Seville, Spain, 13-17 Mayo.