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SOSC 1661

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 CHALLENGES
CONFRONTING HK
SOSC 1661 2021 Spring
Lecture 1
Prof. SING, Ming
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Resistance Against A Decisive Turn towards
Authoritarianism: Davids vs. Goliath in HK (Sing M)

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Research Questions:
Q1. Why was the public opposition to extradition bill so pervasive in June, 2019,
where 2 huge mass rallies broke out? Historical &
• Institutional Context (Right-wing Partial Democracy with Rapid Erosion of
Freedoms & Rule-of-law)
Q2: Why have the anti-government protests been so resilient and outlasted for a
year, with no definitive sign of ending?
Q3: Why have some protesters become frontline militants, with few weapons (if
at all) against the well-resourced and trained police? Given potentially
horrendous legal & physical risks, why (tens of) thousands of them who are
mostly young, have committed such political violence in a metropolis prizing
stability and prosperity?
Q4. Underlying causes --- Beijing’s Hardline Policy of Pushing HK Further towards
Authoritarianism
Q5. Implications for Hong Kong & the World 5
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Methodology
• Documentary analyses (participant observations in 3
NGOs, including two grand alliances, 1 scholars’ alliance;
plus publicly accessible documents)
• Survey datasets
• In-depth interviews (initial stage)

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Protests – Incessant Peaceful & Violent Protests & Escalating Violence
--Yet, Protesters’ Solidarity & Public Support for their Demands Remain Strong

Time_A visual timeline of HK’s Anti-Extradition Bill

• https://time.com/5652412/battle-for-hong-kong/
• https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hrScvvcB6zPJgq-lUBRGk-OS8UfkYP0R/view?usp=sharing
SCMP 100 Days of Protests in HK
• https://www.scmp.com/video/hong-kong/3027690/100-days-protests-milestone-hong-
kongs-anti-extradition-chaos
• https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Jw5k3Qg4klEkWrtkxTTIybVMTSotTPI7/view?usp=sharing
The many faces of the Hong Kong protests
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Df3KdBT7DBk
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yuI1UCxgQTjP_KvpFh4UDZI7uXkAu0sx/view?usp=sharing

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• Confidence on HK’s
future: hit all-time-low
in Mar. 2019 since July
1997 extradiction law

• Trust in HK Govt in
July: ，Net trust: -32，
an all-time-low since
the
• Beginning of this
survey in 1992
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CE’s latest Popularity on Sep. 24 was 24.9 after announcing the
withdrawal of bill –Legitimacy Crisis

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81% of Public: Needs to Address Political Reform,
all-time-high since 2005 (HKPOP in Sep. 2019)
• Net rate for choosing Carrie Lam as CE: -57%
• Sep. 2019, CUHK: the respondents were also asked whether
universal suffrage, economic prosperity or social stability was
the most important. Their responses:
• 70.5% : universal suffrage,
• 67.7% answered social stability,
• 61.3%: economic prosperity

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More direct challenge towards CCP
• 'We Are at the Point of No Return': How a Series of Protests
Escalated Into an All-Out Battle for the Soul of Hong Kong
• https://time.com/5652412/battle-for-hong-kong/
• https://drive.google.com/file/d/1q50iyV8zliXIlJNoGF-gDTG4S4dcqXSH/view?usp=sharing

• 'This Is a Global Fight'

• https://time.com/5678964/denise-ho-hong-kong-protests-china/
• https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tBlX_T0BMrbhqffbSxhqTbnoIcaAV_8E/view?usp=sharing

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 The Gallup Poll 2018- HOPE Index
- Dropped from +10 to -35
- No. 5 Most pessimistic Place in the World
- follows Jordan, Lebanon, Italy & S. Korea

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Apple Daily. 31-12-2018. “港「希望指數」急插 全球第五悲觀” Retrieved from: https://hk.news.appledaily.com/local/daily/article/20181231/20580481
Gallup 2018 Global Emotions Report. https://www.gallup.com/analytics/241961/gallup-global-emotions-report-2018.aspx
Why HK People So PESSIMISTIC?
Prof. WONG Hung (Dept. of Social Work, CUHK) :
1. HK govt’s handling of the trial of 9 activists and politicians
involved in 2014 pro-democracy Umbrella Movement
2. Huge investment of Lantau Tomorrow Vision (明日大嶼) -
artificial island reclamation plan
3. Scandal of MTR Shatin-Central Link (沙中線)
4. China–US trade war & global economic downturn
5. Others?
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 Trend of HK’s Quality of Life index (CUHK)

Freedom of speech index Press criticism index

Housing affordability
ratio (year)
Public expenditure
on health (GDP %)
Public expenditure
on education (GDP%)

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http://www.cuhk.edu.hk/hkiaps/qol/sources/Report_QOLI2017_Eng.pdf
CUHK Survey: Freedom of Speech index hit
the lowest Level Jul 2018 Apple Daily

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Disqualifying (DQ) Pro-democracy
Legislators/Candidates from Contesting Elections

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HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH:WORLD HUMAN
RIGHTS REPORT 2019
Beijing’s assault on freedoms worsened in 2018, esp. free
expression and political association & participation, e.g.
• DQ of pro-democracy lawmakers Agnes Chow and Lau Siu-lai (Jan & Oct 2018)
• detention of members of pro-democracy group Demosisto (香港眾志) in the
mainland (Aug 2018)
• banning the pro-independence Hong Kong National Party (香港民族黨) (Sep
2018)
• DQ of 4 pro-democracy lawmakers (July 2017)
• jailing of 3 prominent student activists - set a worrying precedent for the future
human rights in HK?
• Refusal to grant a visa renewal to the former vice-president of a foreign press
club after his chairing a talk by pro-independence activist Andy Chan (Aug 2018)
https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/01/17/just-beijings-assault-hong-kong-freedoms-worsened-considerably-2018-says-ngo-human-rights-watch/ 20
 ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
GLOBAL DEMOCRACY INDEX 2017
• HK’s democratic standing tumbled 3 places to hit a 5-year low
(dropped from rank 71 to to 73)
• was tied in rank with Namibia and Paraguay (African counties)
• HK’s biggest slides were in electoral process and pluralism

Concerns on contentious issues:

1. a joint checkpoint for a cross-border rail link (give mainland
authorities jurisdiction in part of the city terminus)
2. the DQ of student activist Agnes Chow Ting from taking part in
a legislative by-election because of her “political affiliation”
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https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/2131385/hong-kong-ties-namibia-and-paraguay-flawed-democracies-city
US THINK TANK- THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION
HK suffered a sharp decline in judicial effectiveness
(司法效能)

Judicial effectiveness: slid from 84.3 to 75.3 /100

➢Much lower than Singapore: 92.4/100
➢Just 0.1% higher than China’s score

Reasons:
➢Beijing exercises & reserves “the right to make final interpretations of the
Basic Law, effectively limiting the power of Hong Kong’s Court of Final
Appeal”
➢High speed train; co-location; DQ 4 pro-democracy lawmakers; Legislation for
national anthem

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Apple Daily. 20190126. 港司法效能評分急跌 僅多中國0.1分. https://hk.news.appledaily.com/local/daily/article/20190126/20599533 2/21/27/2019
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/2183916/beijing-has-not-infringed-hong-kongs-judicial-independence
 Index of economic freedom 2019- Parts of the HK’s performance
Total score No change
Scores in 2018
Scores in 2019
The Heritage Foundation
Differences

Govt Expenditures Judicial Effectiveness

Govt Integrity Freedom of Labour

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 CO-LOCATION (一地兩檢)
GUANGZHOU-SHENZHEN-HONG KONG RAILWAY
HKSAR Govt’s proposal for the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-HK railway’s
West Kowloon terminus - “lease” land to China & abandon HK
jurisdiction for 25% of the terminus for allegedly faster immigration
procedures performed by mainland law enforcement agents. 24
Survey on Secretary of Justice's (SJ) Decision-
Teresa Cheng on the UGL Case (HKU Public Opinion Program)
Results:
1. 60% think SJ was biased, and not prosecuting
former HK’s Chief Executive (CY Leung) has
damaged confidence in rule of law
2. 85% think SJ should account for the
investigation results and legal analysis in details
3. 73% think SJ should seek external independent
legal opinions for advising her on decision of
prosecution

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HKUPOP. 15 January, 2019. https://www.hkupop.hku.hk/english/report/sj_ugl/index.html#6
CHANGES IN POPULARITY OF SECRETARY OF JUSTICE
THE SECRETARY FOR JUSTICE

Comparing Jan 2019 with last month

Scores from citizens
pts
Supporting Rate
1%
Opposing Rate
%
Net Supporting Value
%

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 World Top 5 cities of Least Affordable Housing 2019
DEMOGRAPHIA INTERNATIONAL
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY SURVEY: 2019
Hong Kong
1. HK has been world’s most expensive
Vancouver, Canada
housing market for 9th straight year
2. A family would on average need to save
up for 21 years without spending a
Sydney, AU
single dollar to afford a home with
median price.
Melbourne, AU 3. HK’s Median Multiple of 20.9 is the
highest in the history of the
Santa Cruz, USA
Demographia Survey.
4. HK is categorised as “severely
unaffordable” 28
Source: http://demographia.com/dhi.pdf; https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2182980/nothing-be-
proud-hong-kong-tops-table-worlds-most-expensive-housing-market
Bed occupancy rate in all medical wards of
public hospitals reached breaking point (Jan 21, 2019)
Hospital Authority:
1. Bed occupancy rate in all medical wards of
public hospitals reached 111 %
= temporary beds had to be laid along corridors
or between fixed ones, some near toilets

At the highest occupancy:

• Tuen Mun Hospital:122 %;
• Queen Elizabeth Hospital: 121%; Videos:
• https://news.now.com/home/local/player?newsId=334814
• Tseung Kwan O Hospital 128% • https://www.facebook.com/RTHKVNEWS/posts/23504209583
99280
• https://goo.gl/QyyTfg
2. Average waiting time: up to 8 hours in all • https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/01/24/hospital-authority-
Emergency rooms slammed-celeb-videos-cheering-medical-staff-flu-surge-
overwhelms-hospitals/
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/2180897/non-urgent-patients-wait-8-hours-hong-kongs-public
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https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/01/21/hong-kong-nurses-protest-overcrowding-lack-resources-public-hospitals-health-chief-booed/
 HK’s Health Spending (2016/17) in % of GDP: 5.9%

http://www.oecd.org/health/health-systems/Health-Spending-Latest-Trends-Brief.pdf 30
https://www.fhb.gov.hk/statistics/download/dha/en/table1_1617.pdf
DQ: https://hk.news.appledaily.com/local/realtime/article/20181012/58787980

Reasons of not participating in voting

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Reasons of not participating in voting
Reasons: %
Voting cannot change the current situation 23%
No interest in getting involved in politics 19%
No time 19%
Disagree on the agenda of the candidate(s) 9%
Unclear about the choices of candidates 7%
No suitable candidate 7%
Unimportant to vote <1%
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Changes on HONGKONGERS’ Confidence on
“One Country Two Systems”

Net value of 1997 (2nd half yr.)

Net value of 2018 (2nd half yr.)

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Over 60% of HK People deem one Country
Two systems inapplicable to Taiwan

Source: HKU POP

Applicable to Taiwan :29%

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At peak Not applicable to Taiwan :59%
“1 out of 3 Hongkongers would emigrate if they could”
CUHK survey (Jan. 2019)

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“1 out of 3 Hongkongers would emigrate if they could” (con’t)
i) Main Cause?
• Dissatisfaction with: 1. political disputes; 2. social splits; 3. local living conditions
• Drop in HK’s Quality of Life Rating:
➢ “Hong Kong as a livable city”: 62.1% (vs last year 63.9%)

ii) Who are more eager to Emigrate?

1. younger generation (51% of those aged between 18 and 30)
2. with college or higher education (47.9 %)

iii) Where to go?

Canada (18.8%), Australia (18 %) and Taiwan (11.3%)

iv) Attractive factors of overseas:

“Ample living space” (35%);
“Better air quality, less pollution and beautiful environment” (22.3 %);
“More liberty and better conditions for human rights” (15.6 %)
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HK NATIONAL SECURITY LAW:
-FIVE SOCIAL INDICATORS DECLINED AND “FAILED”
-PROSPERITY” HAS REGISTERED A NEW LOW SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1997

Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong residents
by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early Jan 2021.

On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators continue to be
lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”,
“stability”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.45, 4.09, 4.04, 3.80 and 3.56
respectively.

Compared with a month ago, all social indicators have declined slightly, of which the
rating of “prosperity” has again registered a new low since records began in 1997.

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Source: https://hk.appledaily.com/local/20210119/5CZPQQKOWFFNZP7JBNIWB2O74Q/
 Result of Five Core Social Indicators
(Jan 2021)
Degree of freedom
4.45 marks marks, a new low since records in Aug 2020)
Degree of prosperity
4.09 marks marks, a new low since records in Jun 1997)
Degree of stability
4.04 marks marks, a new low since records in Aug 2020)
Compliance with the rule of law
3.8 marks marks, a new low since records in Aug 2020)
Degree of democracy
3.56 marks marks, a new low since records in Aug 2020)

Source: Hong Kong Public Opinion Program, PORI

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 POPULARITY OF CE- CARRIE LAM
RECORD LOW SINCE OCT 2020

Latest survey (Jan 2021) shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands
at 29.0 marks , 44% of the sample gave her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 19%,
disapproval rate 72%, giving a net popularity of negative 54 percentage points.

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Source: https://www.thestandnews.com/politics/%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E6%B0%91%E7%A0%94-%E6%9E%97%E9%84%AD%E8%A9%95%E5%88%86%E5%89%B5%E5%8E%BB%E5%B9%B4-
10-%E6%9C%88%E4%BB%A5%E4%BE%86%E6%96%B0%E4%BD%8E-%E9%99%B3%E8%82%87%E5%A7%8B%E6%B0%91%E6%9C%9B%E6%80%A5%E7%80%89/
As for the Secretaries of Departments, SJ Teresa Cheng’s ranked last. Her net popularity is negative 52
percentage points (2 percentage points dropped). The support rating of CS Matthew Cheung and FS

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Paul Chan increased 4 and 5 percentage points respectively.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, all 13 of them continue to register negative net approval rates. Among
them, the net approval rate of Sophia Chan has declined obviously. Her support rating declined by 18

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percentage points (to -20%). (Jan, 2021)