Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Taming a
Minsky Cycle
Iván Werning with Emmanuel Farhi
MIT
Bubbles
Bubble
starts
Fundamental
innovation Fundamental
value
𝑡𝑡
2
Good vs. bad bubbles
New technologies and R&D investments (1998-2000)
Overcoming QWERTY (chicken-egg) problems
4
Minsky’s bubble phases
Potential
Price path
Bubble
Fundamental starts
innovation
Fundamental
value
𝑡𝑡
Displacement Boom Euphoria Profit-taking Panic
phase phase phase phase
5
Why do rational investor ride rather than attack bubbles?
Co-opetition among rational investors Sequential awareness/learning + critical mass
Competition: exit bubble before it bursts Kills backwards induction argument
Cooperation: ride as long as other ride it common knowledge of bubble
Potential
Price path
Bubble
Fundamental starts
innovation
Fundamental
value
Mutual knowledge
1. order 2. order 3. order ….
𝑡𝑡 6
Poll Questions
1. Policy makers should “fight” bubbles by
a. Leaning against during build-up
b. Clean afterwards only
7
Taming a Minsky Cycle
Emmanuel Farh
Iván Werning
March 202
Markus Academy, Princeton
0
i
Macroprudential Policy
Macroprudential policies motivation
nancial fragilit
aggregate demand stabilizatio
monetary policy constraints or dilemma
Open economy: capital ows, dilemma
fl
s
fi
…
Macroprudential
nancial macro
decisions impact
nancial macro
decisions impact
nancial macro
decisions impact
nancial macro
decisions impact
nancial macro
decisions impact
Extrapolative Expectations
Greenwood-Sheifer (2014): survey of investor
expectations
Extrapolation of future stock
is Common: Bothreturns
Boom correlate
& Bust with past
returns and level of stock market
Policies to Tame a Minsky Cycle
Elements today
Monetary with and without macro-pr
Macroeconomic vs. nancial stability
Targets and instruments a la Tinberge
trading off targets with given instrument
assignment of targets to instrument
Key role of endogeneity of beliefs
…
fi
s
Minsky
Unhappy with neoclassical synthesis;
important aspects of Keynes
but missing nancial/investmen
too rosy on stability prospect
Ideas
system is endogenously unstable…
… perfect stabilization with money and scal policy:
impossibl
tranquility, seeds the risk taking, that creates boom/
bus
nancial markets different than real economy; debt
nancing during expansion, turns more speculative
fi
fi
t
fi
fi
Minsky in
“Stabilizing an Unstable Economy”
Boom and role of expectation feedback
“Instability emerges as a “unless the past is being “A rise in the price of
period of relative tranquil validated […] none but nancial instruments or
growth is transformed into a pathological optimists will capital assets may very well
speculative boom […] invest.” increase the quantity
middlemen in nance demanded […] thus breed
change in response to the conditions conductive to
success of the economy.” another such rise.”
“We need a Theory that “External controls and “It is possible that with other
coordinating mechanisms institutional organizations
makes instability a
may be needed in a and policy systems the
normal result in our capitalist economy. Indeed, susceptibility of our economy
economy and gives us central banking and other to nancial crises can be
handles to control it.” nancial control devices lower than at present”
arose as a response to the
embarrassing incoherence of
nancial markets.”
fi
fi
fi
fi
fi
fi
…
Related Literature
Monetary Policy: Woodford, Gali, Werning, Eggertson-
Krugman, McKay-Nakamura-Steinsson, Auclert;
Monetary
Monetary
Macropr
Rational
Expectation
+
Monetary
Monetary
Macropr
Rational
IT
Expectation
+
Monetary
Monetary
Macropr
IT
Rational
IT +
Expectation
Macropru
+
u
Monetary
Monetary
Macropr
IT
Rational
IT +
Expectation
Macropru
Extrapolativ
Expectations
+
u
e
Monetary
Monetary
Macropr
IT
Rational
IT +
Expectation
Macropru
u
e
Monetary
Monetary
Macropr
IT
Rational
IT +
Expectation
Macropru
I
Extrapolativ Lean Against
Expectations Boom
Macropru
+
u
e
Model Ingredients
He-Krishnamurthy (2013) (Brunnermeier-Sannikov, 2014
asset pricing model
adds nominal rigidities + optimal polic
Incomplete markets
risky asset (Lucas tree
risk-free short-term bon
Two agents
savers: save risk-fre
borrowers
invest in risky asse
borrow risk-fre
Three periods t=0,1,
Consumption good produced 1-to-1 with labor
Rigid wages, no in ation
:
fl
t
Technolog
t = 0,1
t=2
Preference
Borrower
Savers
s
Nominal Rigidities
Budget Constraints
Savers
Borrowers
Labor Wedges and Output Gaps
Labor Wedge
n
Value Functions and AD Externality
S
Allocation pinned down by b1
S S B S
Value functions V (b1 ) and V (b1 )
Aggregate demand externality if recession at t=1
(compare MRS of planner to agents’)
Externality
Social Marginal Utilities ≠ Private Marginal Utilities
Monetary Policy
Focus on Pareto weights that neutralize
distributive objectives (λ S /λ B = c0S /c0B)
Optimal monetary policy targeting rul
fl
Monetary
Monetary
Macropr
Rational
IT
Expectation
Extrapolativ
Expectations
+
e
Monetary
Monetary
Macropr
IT
Rational
IT +
Expectation
Macropru
Extrapolativ
Expectations
+
u
e
Extrapolative Expectations
Introduce extrapolative expectations by
borrower
Modeled by either
wedge in investor Euler equation o
subjective probabilities
s
Monetary Policy
Optimal Monetary Policy targeting rul
Intuition
“Take the punch bowl away when the party is
still going”
Contractionary Monetary Policy
cools economy during boo
cools expectations of return
cools borrowin
low borrowing bene cial in future
fi
m
Monetary
Monetary
Macropr
IT
Rational
IT +
Expectation
Macropru
u
e
Monetary+Macropru
Optimal monetary policy again
Monetary
Monetary
Macropr
IT
Rational
IT +
Expectation
Macropru
I
Extrapolativ Lean Against
Expectations Boom
Macropru
+
u
e
)
Monetary
Monetary
Macropr
IT
Rational
IT +
Expectation
Macropru
I Extrapolation
Extrapolativ Lean Against during Bust
Expectations Boom
Macropru Lean Against
Boom
+
u
:
Conclusion
General theory of macropru + monetary polic
workhorse for many applications
general formula: MPCs and wedge