Study Guide 1.

8
Multiplication Law of Probability

Textbook Reference: Section 2.4 on pages 38-40

Lecture Video: https://youtu.be/FFDRu2-UVhs

Recall that if A and B are two events defined on a sample space S such that
P(B) > 0, then
P(A ∩ B)
P(A|B) = .
P(B)
The above equation can be cross multiplied to give a frequently useful expression for
the probability of an intersection:
P(A ∩ B) = P(B)P(A|B).
Similarly, if P(A) > 0, we have
P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B|A).
A similar result holds for higher-order intersections. Consider P(A ∩ B ∩ C ). By
thinking of A ∩ B as a single event, we can write
P(A ∩ B ∩ C ) = P(A ∩ B)P(C |A ∩ B)
= P(A)P(B|A)P(C |A ∩ B)
Repeating this same argument for n events, A1 , A2 , ... , An , gives a formula for
the general case:
P(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ · · · ∩ An ) = P(A1 ) · P(A2 |A1 )
(1)
· P(A3 |A1 ∩ A2 ) · · · P(An |A1 ∩ A2 ∩ · · · ∩ An−1 ).
Equation 1 is a useful formula for evaluating probabilities of intersections of
events. We call this formula as the multiplication law of probability.

Example 1. An urn contains three red chips, four blue chips, and five green chips.
Four chips are drawn sequentially and without replacement. What is the probability
of obtaining the sequence (green, red, green, blue)?
Example 2. Suppose that five good and two defective fuses have been mixed up. To
find the defective ones, we test them one by one, at random and without replacement.
What is the probability that we find both of the defective fuses in exactly three tests?

Practice: (Textbook) Section 2.4 page 41: 21-24

1
 A 1 B

l
PCA Fz PCBIA F
C
D
PHAAB
PCDlltnBAG.gl fo

Let A greenchipisdrawnonfirstselection
f
Bi redchip isdrawn on2ndselection
C greenchipisdrawn on 3rdselection
D bluechip isdrawnon4thselection
PCAABncntD PCA.PCBIAI.PK nB iIPEDlAhBnc
5g 4g
240
4880 942202 1
tix
 D Dz

Let D firstfusetestedisdefective G firstfusetested isgood

Dz 2ndfusetestedisdefective Gz 2ndfusetested isgood
3rdfusetestedisdefective 613 3rdfusetestedisgood
D
Caset G n D2 n Dz V D n Gz n Dz Case2

91 71 MBIDMGd
1 9o
1 HIM

NotethatGMDzhDzand DinahDg
r lPKGMDzADz U DMGznpz
aremutuallyexclusive
P QMDzhbsftlPCDMGAD37
PCGDPCDHGDPCBIGMDDTPCDD.plGID lP 1731131162
2
5g 6 f t
Ig
2g 9.52 1
ta