Tran Anh Xuan

BTBTIU17101

Experimental Design Assignment

Odd Ratio (OR)
A. Theory

B. Examples

1. Association between Smoking and Small cell lung cancer in Europe and Canada1:

Lung cancer No lung cancer

Currently smoking 1580 4520
Never smoking 72 4732
1580
OddCurrently smoking = = 0.3496
4520
72
OddNever smoking = = 0.0152
4732
OddCurrently 0.3496
Odd ratio = smoking
= = 22.9737
0.0152
OddNever smoking

𝑙𝑛22.9737+1.96√1⁄1580+1⁄4520+1⁄72+1⁄4732
Upper 95% CI = 𝑒 = 29.1961

𝑙𝑛22.9737−1.96√1⁄1580+1⁄4520+1⁄72+1⁄4732
Lower 95% CI = 𝑒 = 18.0775

Conclusion: OR = 22.9737 > 1 → Smoking leads to Lung cancer

2. Association between Using drug and Vehicle accidents in US in 20152:

Accident No accident
Drug 322 546
No drug 2600 5301
322
OddDrug = = 0.5897
546
2600
OddNo drug = = 0.4905
5301
OddCurrently 0.5897
smoking = = 1.2024
Odd ratio = 0.4905
OddNever smoking

𝑙𝑛1.2024+1.96√1⁄322+1⁄546+1⁄2600+1⁄5301
Upper 95% CI = 𝑒 = 1.3907

𝑙𝑛22.9737−1.96√1⁄322+1⁄546+1⁄2600+1⁄5301
Lower 95% CI = 𝑒 = 1.0396

Conclusion: OR = 1.2024 > 1 → Using drug leads to Vehicle accident

3. Association between Depression and Suicide in adolescents3:

Suicide No suicide
Depressed 45 86
Not depressed 32 100
45
OddDepressed = = 0.5233
86
32
OddNot depress = = 0.32
100
OddDepressed 0.5233
Odd ratio = = = 1.6352
OddNot depress 0.32

𝑙𝑛1.6352+1.96√1⁄45+1⁄86+1⁄32+1⁄100
Upper 95% CI = 𝑒 = 2.7980

𝑙𝑛1.6352−1.96√1⁄45+1⁄86+1⁄32+1⁄100
Lower 95% CI = 𝑒 = 0.9557

Conclusion:
OR = 1.6352 > 1
However, CI is [0.9557, 2.7980]
→ We cannot conclude that depression leads to suicide in adolescents.
C. References
1. Pesch, B., Kendzia, et al. Cigarette smoking and lung cancer—relative risk estimates for
the major histological types from a pooled analysis of case–control studies. Int. J.
Cancer, 131: 1210-1219.
2. Richard P. Compton and Amy Berning. Drug and alcohol crash risk.
3. Greenfield B, Henry M, Weiss M, Tse SM, Guile JM, Dougherty G, Zhang X, Fombonne E,
Lis E, Lapalme-Remis, Harnden B. Previously suicidal adolescents: Predictors of six-
month outcome. Journal of the Canadian Association of Child and Adolescent
Psychiatry. 2008;17(4):197–201.