Proceedings,16th

Proceedings,16th IFAC
IFAC Symposium
Symposium on on
Proceedings,16th
Information Control
Proceedings,16th
Information ControlIFAC
IFAC Symposium
Problems
Problems in on
in Manufacturing
Symposium on
Manufacturing
Proceedings,16th
Information
Bergamo, Control
Italy,
Information IFAC
June
Control Symposium
Problems
11-13,
Problems in
2018
in on
Manufacturing
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
Manufacturing
Bergamo, Italy,
Proceedings,16th
Information June
Control 11-13,
IFAC 2018
Symposium
Problems in on
Manufacturing
Bergamo, Italy, June 11-13, 2018
Bergamo, Italy, June 11-13, 2018
Information Control
Bergamo, Italy, JuneProblems in Manufacturing
11-13, 2018
Bergamo, Italy, June 11-13, 2018 ScienceDirect
IFAC PapersOnLine 51-11 (2018) 316–321
Data Mining-Based Prediction of Manufacturing Situations
Data Mining-Based Prediction of Manufacturing Situations
Data Mining-Based Prediction of Manufacturing Situations
Data Mining-Based
A.
A. Dolgui
*
Dolgui**,, N.
Prediction
N. Bakhtadze
**
Bakhtadze**
of Manufacturing
, V. Pyatetsky *** ****Situations
***, R. Sabitov****
**, V. Pyatetsky***, R. Sabitov****,
,
A.
A.G. Dolgui
Dolgui *, N. Bakhtadze
*, N. Bakhtadze
Smirnova ***** **, V. Pyatetsky
**, V. Pyatetsky
*****, D. Elpashev ****** ***, R. Sabitov
******, E. *** , R. Sabitov ****,
****,
*******
A.G. Smirnova
Dolgui , N. ***** , D. Elpashev
Bakhtadze , V. Pyatetsky
****** , E. Zakharov
Zakharov
, R.
*******
Sabitov
******* ,
G. Smirnova ***** , D. Elpashev ****** , E. Zakharov *******
A.G. Smirnova
*
, N. *****, D. Elpashev
Bakhtadze **
, V. ******, E. ***
Pyatetsky Zakharov
G. Smirnova*****, D. Elpashev******, E. Zakharov******* ,
Dolgui , R. Sabitov ****
*******
*
*IMT
* IMTG. Smirnova
Atlantique , D. Elpashevde
Atlantique Bretagne-Pays
Bretagne-Pays de la , E. Zakharov
la Loire,
Loire, Nantes,
Nantes, France,
France,
*IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire, Nantes, France,
*IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire, Nantes, France,
IMT Atlantique(e-mail: Dolgui@imt-atlantique.fr)
Bretagne-Pays de la Loire,
(e-mail: Dolgui@imt-atlantique.fr) Nantes, France,
*
**IMT
** ******Atlantique(e-mail:
(e-mail:
******* Dolgui@imt-atlantique.fr)
Dolgui@imt-atlantique.fr)
Bretagne-Pays de la Loire, Nantes, France,
** ,, ******,, *******
******
**, ******
V.A. Trapeznikov
(e-mail:
*******
V.A. Trapeznikov Institute of
Dolgui@imt-atlantique.fr)
Institute of Control
Control Sciences,
Sciences,
, *******
**, ******, *******
V.A.
V.A.
(e-mail:Trapeznikov
Trapeznikov Institute
Institute
Dolgui@imt-atlantique.fr) of
of Control
Control Sciences,
Sciences,
, , 65
65 Profsoyuznaya,
V.A. Trapeznikov
Profsoyuznaya, Moscow 117997,
Institute
Moscow Russia
of Control
117997, RussiaSciences,
, , 65
65 Profsoyuznaya,
** ****** *******
Profsoyuznaya,
V.A.
** Trapeznikov
** (e-mail:
Moscow
Moscow 117997,
117997,
Institute
sung7@yandex.ru), of Russia
RussiaSciences,
Control
65 Profsoyuznaya,
** (e-mail: Moscow 117997,
sung7@yandex.ru),
** (e-mail: sung7@yandex.ru),
Russia
65 ******
******
** (e-mail:
Profsoyuznaya, sung7@yandex.ru),
Moscow 117997,
(e-mail:den.elpshv@gmail.com), Russia
****** (e-mail: sung7@yandex.ru),
(e-mail:den.elpshv@gmail.com),
**(e-mail:den.elpshv@gmail.com),
******
******* (e-mail:den.elpshv@gmail.com),
(e-mail: sung7@yandex.ru),
******* (e-mail: eddyzaharov@gmail.com)
******
******* (e-mail:den.elpshv@gmail.com),
(e-mail: eddyzaharov@gmail.com)
******(e-mail: eddyzaharov@gmail.com)
*******
***
*** National ******* (e-mail: eddyzaharov@gmail.com)
(e-mail:den.elpshv@gmail.com),
*** National University
(e-mail:
University of
of Science and and Technology
Technology “MISIS”,
eddyzaharov@gmail.com)
Science “MISIS”,
*** National University of Science and
*** National *******
Moscow, University
(e-mail:
Russia, of Science and Technology
Technology “MISIS”,
eddyzaharov@gmail.com)
(e-mail: 7621496@gmail.com) “MISIS”,
National
Moscow, University
Russia, of Science
(e-mail: and Technology “MISIS”,
7621496@gmail.com)
*** Moscow, Russia, (e-mail: 7621496@gmail.com)
****
****
****
,,Moscow,
National
*****
***** Kazan
Moscow,Kazan
Russia,
University (e-mail:
of
National
Russia,
National
Science 7621496@gmail.com)
Research
(e-mail:
andTechnical
Technology “MISIS”,
Technical University
7621496@gmail.com)
Research University
****, *****
***** Kazan National Research Technical University
****, Moscow,
***** Kazan National
Russia, Research
(e-mail: Technical
7621496@gmail.com) University
, named
Kazan
named after
after A.N.Tupolev,
National Research
A.N.Tupolev, Kazan,
Technical
Kazan, Russia
University
Russia
**** *****named after A.N.Tupolev, Kazan, Russia
**** , named
Kazan after A.N.Tupolev,
National Research Kazan,
Technical
*****
**** (e-mail: r.a.sabitov@mail.ru), *****(e-mail: seyl@mail.ru) Russia
University
**** (e-mail: named after A.N.Tupolev,
r.a.sabitov@mail.ru),
**** (e-mail: r.a.sabitov@mail.ru), *****
Kazan,
(e-mail:Russia
seyl@mail.ru)
*****(e-mail: seyl@mail.ru)
**** (e-mail: r.a.sabitov@mail.ru),
named after A.N.Tupolev, Kazan, (e-mail: seyl@mail.ru)
Russia
****
(e-mail: r.a.sabitov@mail.ru), ***** *****
(e-mail: seyl@mail.ru)
(e-mail: r.a.sabitov@mail.ru), (e-mail: seyl@mail.ru)
Abstract: The
Abstract: The paper
paper proposes
proposes an an approach
approach to to the
the early
early detection
detection of of factors
factors implying
implying the
the need
need in
in
Abstract:
Abstract:
production The
The paper
paper
schedule proposes
proposes
update. an
an
Resource approach
approach
state to
to the
the
prediction early
early
methods detection
detection
are basedof on
of factors
factors
the implying the
implying
developmentthe
of aneed
need in
in
binary
production
Abstract: schedule
The update.
paperupdate.
proposes Resource state
an approach prediction methods
to the early are
detectionbased on
of on the
factors development of
implying the a binary
need in
production
production
model and
andTheschedule
schedule update. Resource
Resource state
state prediction
prediction methods
methods are
are based
based on the
the development
development of
of a
a binary
binary
Abstract:
model
production aa machine
machine learning
paper learning techniques
proposestechniquesan approach called
called association
toassociation
the early rules search.
detection
rules search.of on
factors implying the
of aneed in
model and aaschedule
model and machineupdate.
machine learningResource
learning techniques
techniques
state prediction
called
called
methods
association
association rulesare
rules
based
search.
search.
the development binary
production
model and a schedule
machine update.
learning Resource
techniques state prediction
called methods
association rulesare based
search. on the
© 2018, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.development of a binary
model and adata
Keywords:
Keywords: machine
data learning
mining,
mining, techniques called
knowledgebase,
knowledgebase, association
association
association rule rules
rule search.
learning,
learning, production scheduling,
production scheduling, productive
productive
Keywords:
Keywords:
resources data mining,
data mining, knowledgebase,
knowledgebase, association
association rulerule learning,
learning, production
production scheduling,
scheduling, productive
productive
resources
Keywords: data mining, knowledgebase, association rule learning, production scheduling, productive
resources
resources
Keywords:
resources data mining, knowledgebase, association rule learning, production scheduling, productive
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area
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this improvement.
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is undesirable
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difficulties non-stationary
in implementing objects,
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and, on
on the
this approach, the other
other hand,
especially for allowing
hand, (Kelly,
Therefore,
allowing
forfurther
(Kelly, 2004).
2004). specific manufacturing
Besides computational
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for specific manufacturing
situations
of existing
computational models undesirable
complexity,
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at
such
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nonlinear
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increased and
and non-stationary
non-stationary
possibilities of plantobjects,
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history and,
and, on
on
analysis the
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resulted hand,
hand,
in the (Kelly,
(Kelly, 2004).
2004). Besides
Besides computational
computational complexity,
complexity, such
such
The difficulties
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possibilities
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of plantobjects,
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result in the
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complication Besides
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on data
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complication may
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(Peretzki
(Peretzki et
increased et of2014).
al., identification
possibilities
al., 2014). of plant methods based on
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resulted accuracy.
in the accuracy.
development of identification methods based on data mining complication
accuracy.
The may result in the deterioration of model
(Peretzki et
(Peretzki
development
et al.,
al., 2014).
2014).
of2014).
identification methods based on data mining The existing
existing rescheduling
rescheduling techniques
techniques based based onon model
model update
update
(Peretzki
Production
Production et al.,
scheduling
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seeks to
to ensure
ensure well-organized
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The
The existing
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typically
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on
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(Peretzki
Production
Production
smooth
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et al., 2014). production
scheduling
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of
of all
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to ensure
ensure well-organized
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with efficient and The
and existing
typically do rescheduling
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Production
smooth
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all production
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of all
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seeks to ensure
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because
The
typically
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existing
because the
do
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not address
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time
time
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needs
techniquesis
needs
of
is stronglydynamic
based
strongly
of
scheduling
onlimited
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limited
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update
(Kelly,
scheduling
smooth
adaptive flow
adaptive
Production
smooth flow
of all production
management
scheduling
management
of all and
and rational
seeks operations
to ensure
rational
production use of with
of
usewell-organized
operations
efficient
resources.
resources.
with It because
It
and
efficient because
2004,
2004,
the
the
2006).
typically do
2006).
rescheduling
rescheduling
not address
time
time
the
is
is strongly
needs strongly
of
limited
limited
dynamic
(Kelly,
(Kelly,
scheduling
adaptive
adaptive
comprises management
management
the
the following
and
and rational
rational
activities: use
use ofof resources.
resources. It because
It the rescheduling time is strongly limited (Kelly,
2004, 2006).
smooth
comprisesflow
adaptive of all production
following
comprises management
the following
activities:
and rational
following activities:
activities:
operations
use of with efficient
resources. It 2004,
because2006).
the rescheduling time is strongly limited (Kelly,
2004, 2006).
comprises
adaptive the
comprises management and rational use of resources. It 2004, 2006).
the following activities:
comprises©
Copyright
2405-8963
Copyright ©the
© 2018
2018,
2018 following
IFAC activities: Federation of Automatic Control)
IFAC (International
IFAC 316
316Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Copyright
Peer review©
Copyright 2018
©under IFAC
2018 responsibility
IFAC 316
of International Federation of Automatic
316Control.
Copyright © 2018 IFAC
10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.08.302 316
Copyright © 2018 IFAC 316
 IFAC INCOM 2018
Bergamo, Italy, June 11-13, 2018 A. Dolgui et al. / IFAC PapersOnLine 51-11 (2018) 316–321 317
For example, an updated schedule for a continuous
production should take effect prior to the model is reloaded
with the current production data (such as material balances
made late at night before the first day of the new schedule).
The revision of nonlinear models is particularly difficult
(Vani, 2015). The state of manufacturing resources should be
nevertheless assessed and predicted both to improve control
agility and to foresee the situations where schedule execution
becomes problematic or impossible. Such situations will be
further referred to as incidents.
It may make sense to develop intelligent predictive models
describing the overall current state of resources employed to
execute all production operations of a specific production
process.
As far as all available resources are described differently and
have different operation patterns, unified models are offered
enabling the prediction of a manufacturing situation as a
whole using a knowledgebase and associative rules generated
purposefully for a specific production process.
Further consideration will comprise manufacturing
processes, production scheduling, supply management and
other industrial areas with their specific operations.
The further content of this paper is organized as follows.
The next section examines a development technique for
production process’s resource state model. Section 3
describes the resource state prediction algorithms based on
data mining techniques. Section 4 provides more details of an
algorithm based on associative rules. An application case
from an engineering plant in discussed in Section 5. The
Conclusion formulates the paper’s summary and offers an
application outlook.
2. MANUFACTURING RESOURCE STATE MODELS
The term “production resources” will hereinafter mean the
following:
 input flows characterized by formal properties
dependent on production specificity
 production equipment
���������� ��� � �� � � �� � � �� � � �
where i is a number of production equipment unit and
other facilities used for performing the j-th operation;
 human resources
���������� ��� � �� � � �� � � �� � � �
involved in the j-the operation; i is number of human
resources;
 other factors
��������� ��� � �� � � �� � � �� � � �
affecting the j-the operation such as energy resources
and a variety of formal indices and factors related with
the production process. i is number of such factors.
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Production resources may be described differently.
1) Some have qualitative characteristics which take on
specific values that may be checked against norms at
any moment.
2) The state of others such as certain equipment pieces,
may be exclusively either “working” or “not working”.
Remaining life time may be known or not for such
resources. The process historian may however keep
failure statistics for a specific equipment piece;
maintenance downtime statistics may be also available
for a specific piece or similar kind of equipment.
3) One more resource type (including human resources) is
not subject to maintenance. In case of outage, such
resources should be immediately replaced from the
backlog. The replacement process is typically fast;
therefore, no values other than 1 (OK) and 0 (not OK)
should be assigned to such resource.
Assume a model of a specific manufacturing situation as a
dynamic schedule fragment comprises the following
components:
��� ��� � �� �� �� �� �� �� �� �� �� �� ���� ,
where:
� �� ��� ��� �
is a resource identifier including the resource number, the
operation number and the time stamp (the number of
characteristics may be increased).
Other components of the resource state vector at the time
moment � may be represented by a binary code.
� �� � is the code of the numerical value of a state variable;
this code is different for each of the above-listed resource
types.
� �� �, � �� �, and � �� � will be discussed further.
Consider the resources whose state may be described by
some quantitative characteristic, such as inlet flowrate or
temperature for chemical processes or an average equipment
failure number.
The solution to the problem described above is based on the
possibility of representing numerical values of resource
state’s characteristics as a set of nested self-similar structures
(Fink, 2007).
For a specific resource, we assume that the characteristic if its
state possesses the values on the half-interval [0; 1) (this half-
interval was chosen as an example for simplicity, the results
can be easily spread to any other).
This half-interval can be represented as the union
[0; 0.5 )∪[0.5; 1).
We will further correspond the symbols {0; 1} to the left and
right half-intervals respectively, namely, 0 to the left half-
interval, and 1 to the right one.
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Each of the two subintervals can be further split in the same
way, and, again, the values 0 and 1 can be assigned to the left
and the right parts respectively.
In that way, a finite chain of symbols from {0; 1} has a one-
to-one correspondence with a half-interval embedded in [0;
1).
For example, the chain 00 corresponds to [0; 0.25), and the
chain 100 to [0.5; 0.625) respectively. For a binary partition a
chain of n symbols corresponds to a half-interval with the
�
length � (Fig. 1).
�
Fig. 1. A code for the numerical value of a quantity on the
half-interval [0;1)
This way, for each value of a numerical characteristic at the
current time moment we obtain a code of zeros and ones. The
number of positions, as we show further, will determine the
accuracy of prediction.
For the resources from the categories 2 and 3, the respective
codes will have the same value in all positions (either 1 or 0).
� �� � is the code of the time before the maintenance end. If
a resource is available and operated, the respective code
consists of ones.
� �� � is the code of the time before the equipment piece
fails with the probability close to 1 (remaining life).
In the scheduling practice, this time is not less than the
operating time. However, resource replacement just during
the operation may be sometimes more cost-effective.
Moreover, the equipment piece may fail unexpectedly.
For resource types from categories 1 and 3, � �� � has ones
in all positions.
� �� � is the time before the scheduled end of the operation.
In real-life manufacturing situations, time may be wasted
(with the need in schedule update) for the reasons neither
stipulated in the production model nor caused by equipment
failures.
Generally, it is hardly possible to formalize all such causes of
schedule disruption. Therefore, their consolidation as the
“remaining plan execution time” is a way to allow for these
hidden factors in the production state model.
So, for each resource with reference to a specific production
operationб we have defined a binary code, having its time
identifier. By combining resource codes with equal values of
this identifier, we obtain a description of the manufacturing
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situation at the current time instant (from the viewpoint of the
state of its resources).
To a great extent (under the assumption of insignificant
influence of external factors on the system) this state
determines the possibility of plan execution according to
schedule.
3. RESOURCE STATE PREDICTION FOR PRODUCTION
PROCESSES BY MEANS OF ASSOCIATIVE RULES
For the developed binary chain, a forecast may be obtained
using data mining techniques. It makes sense to apply the
methods named association rules search.
As against the associative search technique (Bakhtadze et al.,
2007), where:
(i) associations of dynamic system’s states are developed
with the help of a database and cluster analysis,
(ii) parameter values are further calculated by means of least
square technique, and
(iii) the system’s output is finally predicted,
the association rules search allows to (Agrawal et al., 1993;
Agrawal and Srikant, 1994):
 reveal the hidden statistical relationship between the
state of various resources at different time instants
without any preliminary statistical analysis,
 operate with state variables of various resources
differing in their characteristics the ways of
formalization.
A forecast of a state described by a binary chain with an
identifier can be obtained by revealing the most probable
combination of two binary sets of values at a fixed time
instant and at the next instant (a one-step forecast).
A more distant prediction horizon is also possible.
4. ASSOCIATION RULES SEARCH TECHNIQUES
Association rules search techniques as a method used in
knowledge discovering databases (KDD) was developed for
searching the regularities of relationship between events from
the same set Z (Agrawal et al., 1993; Agrawal and Srikant,
1994).
In the process of solving the problem of searching for
associative rules, regularities are found between the related
events in the data set. The search for regularities is not based
on the properties of the analyzed object, but between several
events that occur at the same time.
In particular, these regularities can be expressed by the
implication “if X then Y”, �,∈Z.
Assume that for a specific operation j at a fixed time instant t
there are sets of elements
� � ��� �� � � �� � � �
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under investigation. These sets supplemented by the
identifiers � �� ��� ��� � are called transactions:
�� ���={��� ���|��� ����R, ��� },
T={�� ���� � � �� � � �� � � ���� � �� }.
Data analysis based on association rules search aims at the
search of combinations commonly encountered together.
We introduce the term transaction of transition:
�� ���={��� ���� ��� �� � ��|��� ����R, ��� },
T={�� ���� � � �� � � �� � � ���� � �� }.
Such transactions contain combined sets of resource state
data at a certain time instant and at the next one. The
collection of transactions forms the content of the
knowledgebase of the specific production process.
Assume further that X is a set of elements R, ��R.
An implication ���, where ���, ���, �∩�=∅ is called
association rule.
Each association rule is characterized by two features:
support and confidence.
In our case, the association rule consists of two resource sets
called an antecedent (X) and a consequent (Y) with the
relationship “X implies Y”.
In particular, X can be the current set of resource state values,
and Y can be the same set at the next time step.
The objective of production process state prediction is the
establishment of the fact that the production equipment is
serviceable and available for operation, and the operating
time for each operation will not go beyond the schedule.
According to standard models proposed for various resource
types this means revealing the following relationships: if a
transaction contains a certain set of elements (consisting of
zeros and ones) then a conclusion can be made that a new set
of elements Y will appear at the next time step.
In the association rules search, the metrics describing the
significance of the rule are used. Objective and subjective
metrics should be discerned. The objective ones include
support and confidence.
The rule “X implies Y” is characterized by the support S, if
S% of transactions (in our case, pairs of transactions: at the
current time step and at the next one) of their total number
contain the sets of elements X and Y.
Let TXY be a number of transactions containing X and Y;
T is the total number of transactions (both containing and not
containing X and/or Y).
Then the support (S) of an association rule is defined as
S = TXY / P.
The support is construed as the rule appearance rate. The
confidence (C) of the association rule is defined as:
C = ТXY / PX.
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Rule confidence is the probability of the implication
“XY” (in our case, the probability of forecast correctness).
The rule “X implies Y” is correct with the confidence C, if
C% of transactions from the total, which contain the set of
elements X contain also the set of elements Y.
Subjective metrics are determined by task specificity. Those
may include the following.
Lift (L) is the ratio of the rate of certain condition appearance
in transactions which also contain the consequence, to the
rate of appearance of the whole consequence.
L > 1 means that the condition appears in transactions
containing also the consequence more often than in the rest of
transactions.
Lift can be understood as a generalized measure of the
relation between two sets of objects: for L > 1 the relation is
positive, for L < 1 it is negative, and for L = 0 it lacks.
Significance metric called leverage is a difference between
the rate of simultaneous appearance of the condition and the
consequence (i.e., the association support) and the product of
appearance rates (supports) of the condition and the
consequence separately.
The leverage is based on the assumption that if the cause and
the consequence are independent then the rule support will
not differ significantly from the product of the condition’s
and the consequence’s supports (i.e., the cause and the effect
appear together with approximately the same frequency as
separately).
The above mentioned metrics are used for restricting
association sets by setting a lower significance threshold for
associations rejection.
Support and confidence of association rules is limited by
preassigned minimum and maximum values. The thresholds
for support and confidence are assigned in such a way that
the number of rules found would be limited.
For too high support value there is no need in applying rules
search algorithms because the rules will be rather obvious.
Instead, too low support value requires the development of
too many new rules with respective high consumption of
computational resource.
However, at low support threshold rather interesting though
groundless rules can be sometimes found.
After assigning support and confidence thresholds, we select
among all associations that can be pulled from the database,
those ones for which these two metrics exceed the thresholds.
However, the number of selected associations is too large that
poses significant computational challenges.
Therefore, special association rules search algorithms are
used in practice enabling search space reduction (Agrawal
and Srikant, 1994).
A priori algorithm based on the popular (frequently
encountered) set concept is among the most commonly used.
A frequently encountered set is the one whose appearance
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rate in the total of transactions exceeds the preassigned level
(Witten et al., 2011).
The a priori algorithm comprises the following phases:
 revealing popular sets,
 development (search) of associative rules meeting
specified support and confidence constraints.
We propose a modified algorithm for revealing commonly
encountered sets. Its features are as follows:
1) The sets are revealed with coincidences in all positions
within subsets ൏ ʠଶ ൐ǡ ൏ ʠଷ ൐ǡ ൏ ʠସ ൐ǡ ൏ ʠହ ൐;
2) The sets are revealed with coincidences in all positions
within subsets ൏ ʠଶ ൐ǡ ൏ ʠଷ ൐ǡ ൏ ʠସ ൐ǡ ൏ ʠହ ൐ except
for the farthest “left” positions corresponding to the
farthest right subintervals of the values of resources’
characteristics;
3) Coincidences over all other positions are further
considered.
On the algorithm’s second and the third steps, the sets are
considered that correspond to the rougher “similarity”
conforming to an extended interval chosen at the coding.
To search for associative rules, standard software can be
used, for example XELOPES LIBRARY developed by the
Prudsys AG company.
The library architecture conforms to the MDA (Model Driven
Architecture) standard.
The model of associative rules in the XELOPES LIBRARY
is represented in the form of three-dimensional histograms
(Fig. 2).
The subsets of the frequent sets are laid along the axes of the
plane. On the left axis, the transactions are represented
corresponding to the accidents, on the right – to the
consequent. A histogram is drawn at their intersection. The
height of the histogram reflects the level of support for the
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rule, the color of the histogram changes from blue to red in
accordance with the level of confidence (from the smaller to
the larger).
Fig. 2. Visualization of association rules search procedure
5. APPLICATIONS
Some figures from the truck assembly process at KAMAZ
JSC works in Russia, argue for the practical value of the
technique proposed.
Assembly on the line means that a truck is moved to the next
assembly cell after all operations associated with the previous
cell are completed. The assembly process comprises of the
following operations:
 chassis frame is transported to the production line
 brackets and the driving bogie are mounted on the frame
 brake system is mounted, tested and tuned
 electrics, engine, cooling and feed systems, fuel and air-
take equipment, truck cab, and platform are mounted.
The assembly process employs the following resources:
 equipment (> 10 000 pieces)
 tools (>180 000)
 utilities (electricity, process gases, instrument air,
superheated water)
 process materials such as lube oils, special liquids,
chemicals, paints and paint bases, metals and nonmetals
(> 6 000 items altogether)
 design and engineering documentation (> 2 000 variants).
Abnormal situations resulting in assembly process
disruptions with the need for rescheduling or even mid-term
re-planning may happen if the abovementioned resources are
unavailable or in poor condition, as well as in the absence of
human resources (70 positions for each of the two production
lines), the lack of component parts or their wrong form
factors (78 000 form factors for KAMAZ own production and
23 000 purchased ones).
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6. CONCLUSIONS Bakhtadze, N., Lototsky, V., Maximov, E., and B. Pavlov

(2007). Associative Search Models in Industrial
An intelligent approach was presented to the development of systems, IFAC Proceedings Volumes, vol. 40, no. 3, pp.
algorithms for production process state prediction at complex 105-108.
multiproduct plants featuring a large number of
Fink, Jiří (2007). Perfect matchings extend to Hamiltonian
manufacturing operations. Various production resource types
cycles in hypercubes, Journal of Combinatorial Theory,
were described by a single unified expression.
Series B 97, pp. 1074-1076.
For predicting resource state represented by a binary code,
Grossmann, I.E., Van den Heever, S.A., and I. Harjunkoski
the association rules search method is applied. A modified a
(2002). Discrete optimization methods and their role in
priori algorithm provides for the selection of associations
the integration of planning and scheduling. AIChE
ensuring gradual decrease of resource coding accuracy.
Symposium Series, vol. 98, no. 326, pp.150-168.
The technique proposed enables effective analysis of a
Kelly, J.D. (2004). Formulating Production Planning models,
manufacturing situation, bottlenecks detection, and
Chemical Engineering Progress, January, pp. 43-50.
prevention of events that may result in production
rescheduling. Kelly, J.D. (2006). Logistics: the missing link in blend
scheduling optimization, Hydrocarbon Processing, June,
Timely detection and prediction of contingencies, such as
pp. 45-51.
components delivery delays, may prevent an abnormal
situation and avoid major losses caused by schedule Leung, J.Y.T. (2004). Handbook of Scheduling, Boca Raton,
disruptions. Florida, Chapman & Hall/CRC.
System training enables the development of a knowledgebase Peretzki, D., Isaksson, A., Carvalho Bittencourt, A. and K.
underlying further contingency predictions. Forsman (2014). Data mining of historic data for
process identification. Linköping University Electronic
The approach proposed can be also used in production
Press, http://manualzz.com/doc/8482583/modeling-
scheduling and business management.
anddiagnosis-of-friction-and-wear-in-industrial .
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