Asian Journal of Mathematics and Computer

Research
4(1): 1-15, 2015

International Knowledge Press

www.ikpress.org

CONSERVATION OF FORESTRY BIOMASS AND

WILDLIFE POPULATION: A MATHEMATICAL MODEL

MANJU AGARWAL1 AND RACHANA PATHAK1*

1
Department of Mathematics and Astronomy, University of Lucknow, Lucknow-226007, India.

AUTHORS’ CONTRIBUTIONS
This work was carried out in collaboration between both authors. Author MA created the mathematical
model and helps to interpret the results. Author RP analyzed the model, wrote the algorithm, methodology
programming and interpreted the results. Both authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Received: 26 March 2015 Original Research Article

Accepted: 15 April 2015
Published: 29 April 2015
_______________________________________________________________________________

ABSTRACT

A non-linear mathematical model for conservation of forestry biomass and wildlife population is proposed
and analyzed. In the modelling process, it is assumed that the growth rate of wildlife conservation is
proportional to the depletion of forestry biomass due to wildlife population. It also studies the affect of
illegal trade in forestry biomass and wildlife population. The model equations are analyzed mathematically
with regard to the nature of equilibrium points and their stabilities using the theory of nonlinear ordinary
differential equations and numerical simulations. It also obtained sufficient conditions for the persistence of
the system by using differential inequality.
Keywords: Biomass; mathematical model; stability; persistence.

1 Introduction

Wildlife population wholly depends on the forestry biomass [1]. The illegal trade in wildlife population and
forestry biomass is a very significant criminal sector. It entails poverty, development and governance
challenges. Current trends and impacts suggest that a priority attention should be focused on the illegal trade
in charcoal and other forest products (including paper, timber and pulp, as well as endangered high-value
species like rosewood, African cherry and wild mahogany), and the illegal trade of mammals (especially, but
not limited to, tigers, elephants and rhinos), in addition to many other species including sharks, manta rays
and sturgeon, to mention a few [2].

Several mathematical models for forest depletion caused by resource independent industrialization
(population) by considering the spatial distribution in a single homogeneous habitat of both the forest
biomass as well as the density of industrialization were proposed by researchers. They studied the behavior
of uniform steady-state solution and it was shown that if industrialization increases without control, the
forest biomass may not last long, but they overlooked the patchiness in the habitat [3-12]. Many researchers
have investigated the depletion of resource biomass by overgrowing population, toxicants and
industrialization. Agarwal et al. [1] proposed a ratio dependent mathematical model on the depletion of
forestry resource biomass due to industrialization pressure. They found that the density of forestry biomass
_____________________________________
*Corresponding author: rachanapathak2@gmail.com;
 Agarwal and Pathak; AJOMCOR, 4(1): 1-15, 2015

decreases due to increase in industrialization pressure that decreases the density of wildlife species. Shukla
et al. [13] studied the effect of technology on the conservation of forestry resource biomass. However, they
did not consider the effect of toxicants on the depletion of resource biomass. Role of toxicants on the
depletion of renewable resources like forests is considerable. They concluded that the resource biomass
density decreases due to over growing population and industrialization. Resource biomass density was
observed to decrease further as the resource dependent industrial migration increases. They found that
resource does not become extinct if some technology is applied for its conservation. Agarwal and Bhadauria
[16] investigated a mathematical model to conserve the resource biomass that is depleted by
industrialization, population pressure and toxicants with the help of technology. They found that
concentration of toxicants in the environment can be reduced significantly if technology is applied to
conserve resource biomass. Misra et al. [17] proposed and analyzed a nonlinear mathematical model to study
the depletion of forest resources caused by population and the corresponding population pressure. It is
assumed that the cumulative density of forest resources and the density of populations follow logistic models
with prey–predator type nonlinear interaction terms.

2 Mathematical Model

2.1 Methods and Materials

Keeping all the above points in mind, we analyze a nonlinear ordinary differential equation model for
conservation of forestry biomass and wildlife population. The stability theory of nonlinear ordinary
differential equations and fourth order Runge–Kutta method are used to analyze and predict the behavior of
the model. Let B is density of forestry biomass, W is wild life population and Wc is wild life conservation.
ri (i = 1,2 ) is the intrinsic growth rate of forestry biomass and wildlife population. K is the carrying
capacity of forestry biomass and L is the carrying capacity of wildlife population. s1 and s 2 is depletion of
forestry biomass due to wildlife population. β1 and β 2 is growth rate of wildlife population in presence of
forestry biomass. It is assumed here that rate of growth of wildlife conservation is proportional to the rate of
depletion of forestry biomass which is represented by α 1 and α 2 . µ1 and µ 2 is depletion of forestry
biomass and wildlife population due to illegal trade respectively. k1 and k 2 is growth rate of forestry
biomass and wildlife population in the presence of wildlife conservation respectively. µ 0 is the depletion
rate coefficient of wildlife conservation due to failure of governance. Now we take as our model the system
of differential equations:

dB  B
= r1 B 1 −  − s1 BW − s 2 B 2W − µ1 B + k1Wc ,
dt  K
dW  W
= r2W 1 −  + β 1 s1 BW + β 2 s 2 B 2W − µ 2W + k 2Wc , (2.1)
dt  L
dW c
= (α 1 s1 BW + α 2 s 2 B 2W )Wc − µ 0Wc2 .
dt

Where B(0) > 0,W (0) ≥ 0, Wc (0) ≥ 0.

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3 Equilibrium Analysis
The system (2.1) has five nonnegative equilibria namely,
 K (r1 − µ1 )   L(r − µ 2 )  ~ ~
E 0 (0,0,0), E1 
r1
,0,0 , E 2  0, 2
r2
( )
,0 , E3 B , W ,0 and E 4 (B*,W *,Wc *) . The
   
 K (r1 − µ1 )   L(r − µ 2 ) 
existing of equilibrium points E 0 (0,0,0 ), E1  ,0,0  and E 2  0, 2 ,0  is obvious.
 r1   r2 
We show the existence of other equilibria as follows

~ ~
Existence of (
E 3 B , W ,0 )
~ ~
Here B , W are the positive solutions of the following algebraic equations

~
 B ~ ~~
r1 1 −  − s1W − s 2 B W − µ1 = 0, (3.1)
 K
~
 W ~ ~
r2 1 −  + β 1 s1 B + β 2 s 2 B 2 − µ 2 = 0. (3.2)
 L

From equation (3.2), we get

~ ~
~
W =
(
r2 + β 1 s1 B + β 2 s 2 B 2 − µ 2 L )
. (3.3)
r2
~
Using the value of W in equation (3.1), we get

~ ~ ~ ~
()
G B = β 2 s 22 LKB 3 + 2 β 1 β 2 s1 s 2 LKB 2 + (Kβ 1 s12 L + r1 r2 + β 2 s 2 LK (r2 − µ 2 ))B
+ β 1 s1 LK (r2 − µ 2 ) − r2 K (r1 − µ1 ),
G (0 ) = β 1 s1 LK (r2 − µ 2 ) − r2 K (r1 − µ 1 ) < 0,
G (K ) = β 2 s 22 LK 4 + 2 β 1 β 2 s1 s 2 LK 3 + (β 1 s12 L + r1 r2 + β 2 s 2 L(r2 − µ 2 ))K 2
+ β 1 s1 LK (r2 − µ 2 ) − r2 K (r1 − µ 1 ) > 0,
~ ~ ~
Thus there will be a B , 0 < B < K , such that G ( B ) = 0.

~ ~
Now, the sufficient condition for the uniqueness of ( ) ( )
E3 is G ′ B > 0 and G ′ B is defined at equilibrium
point E3 as

~ ~ ~
()
G ′ B = 3β 2 s 22 LKB 2 + 4 β 1 β 2 s1 s 2 LKB + Kβ 1 s12 L + r1 r2 + β 2 s 2 LK (r2 − µ 2 ),

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This completes the existence of E3 .

Existence of E 4 (B*, W *, Wc *) .

Here B*,W * and Wc * are the positive solutions of the system of algebraic equations given below

 B*
r1 B * 1 −  − s1 B * W * − s 2 B * W * − µ 1 B * + k1W c * = 0,
2
(3.4)
 K 

 W *
r2W * 1 −  + β 1 s1 B * W * + β 2 s 2 B * W * − µ 2W * + k 2Wc * = 0,
2
(3.5)
 L 

α 1 s1 B * W * +α 2 s 2 B *2 W * − µ 0Wc * = 0. (3.6)

From the equations (3.5) and (3.6), we get2

(α s + α
1 1 2
s 2 B *)B * W *
Wc * = . (3.7)
µ0

r2 Lµ 0 − µ 2 + (k 2 Lα 1 s1 + β 1 s1 Lµ 0 )B * + (β 2 s 2 Lµ 0 + k 2 s 2 Lα 2 )B *2
W *= . (3.8)
r2 µ 0

Using the equations (3.4), (3.7) and (3.8), we get

H (B *) = A1 B *3 + A2 B *2 + A3 B * + A4 ,

where

A1 = (β 2 s 2 Kµ 0 + k 2α 2 s 2 K )(β 2 s 2 Lµ 0 + k 2 s 2 Lα 2 ),
A2 = (β 2 s 2 Kµ 0 + k 2 s 2 Kα 2 )(β 1 s1 Lµ 0 + k 2 Ls1α 1 ) + (β 2 s 2 Lµ 0 + k 2 s 2 Lα 2 )(β 1 s1 Kµ 0 + k1 Kα 1 s1 ),
A3 = (β 2 s 2 Kµ 0 + k 2 s 2 Kα 2 )(r2 − µ 0 L − µ 2 ) + (β 1 s1 Kµ 0 + k1 s1 Kα 1 )(β 1 s1 Lµ 0 + k 2 Lα 1 s1 )
− r1 r2 µ 02 ,
A4 = (β 1 s1 Kµ 0 + k1α 1 s1 K )(r2 Lµ 0 − µ 2 ) − r2 µ 02 K (r1 − µ1 ).
H (0 ) = A4 > 0,
H (L ) = A1 L3 + A2 L2 + A3 L + A4 .

Thus there will be a B*, 0 < B* < L, such that H ( B*) = 0.

Now, the sufficient condition for the uniqueness of E4 is H ′(B * ) < 0 and H ′(B * ) is defined at
equilibrium point E4 as

H ′(B *) = 3 A1 B *2 +2 A2 B * + A3 .

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This completes the existence of E4 .

Result: After equilibrium analysis we concluded that the system (2.1) has five nonnegative equilibria if
r1 > µ1 and r2 > µ 2 exist.

4 Local Stability
To discuss the local stability of system (2.1), we compute the variational matrix of system (2.1). The entries
of general variational matrix are given by differentiating the right side of system (2.1) with respect to B,W
and Wc , i.e.

t11 t12 t13 

V (E ) = t 21 t 22 t 23 .
t 31 t 32 t 33 

Where

2r1 B
t11 = r1 − − s1W − 2s 2 B W − µ1 , t12 = − s1 B − s 2 B 2 , t13 = k1 , t 21 = β1 s1W + 2β 2 s 2 B W ,
K
2r W
t 22 = r2 − 2 + β 1 s1 B + β 2 s 2 B 2 − µ 2 , t 23 = k 2 , t 31 = (α 1 s1W + 2α 2 s 2 BW )Wc ,
L
t 32 = (α 1 s1 B + α 2 s 2 B 2 )Wc , t 33 = α 1 s1 BW + α 2 s 2 B 2W − 2µ 0Wc .

The variational matrix V (E 0 ) at equilibrium point E 0 is given by

r1 − µ1 0 k1 
V (E 0 ) =  0 r2 − µ 2 k 2 .
 0 0 0 

The eigenvalues are λ1 = r1 − µ1 , λ2 = r2 − µ 2 and λ3 = 0 .The system (2.1) is unstable in

B − W plane.

The variational matrix V (E1 ) at equilibrium point E1 is given by

 K (r1 − µ1 )  s 2 K (r1 − µ1 ) 
− (r1 − µ1 ) − s1 +  k1 
 r1  r1  
 K (r1 − µ1 )  s 2 K (r1 − µ1 )  
V (E1 ) =  0 r2 − µ 2 + s1 +  k 2 .
 r1  r1  
 0 0 0
 
 

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K (r1 − µ1 )  s 2 K (r1 − µ1 ) 
The eigenvalues are λ1 = −(r1 − µ1 ), λ2 = r2 − µ 2 + s1 +  and λ3 = 0.
r1  r1 
The system (2.1) is stable in B − direction and unstable in W − direction.

The variational matrix V (E 2 ) at equilibrium point E 2 is given by

 s1 L(r2 − µ 2 ) 
r1 − µ1 − r2
0 k1 
 
s L (r − µ )
V (E 2 ) =  1 2 2
− (r2 − µ 2 ) k 2 .
 r2 
 0 0 0
 
 

s1 L(r2 − µ 2 )
The eigenvalues are λ1 = r1 − µ1 − , λ2 = −(r2 − µ 2 ) and λ3 = 0. The system (2.1) is
r2
s L(r2 − µ 2 )
stable in W − direction and stable in B − W plane if r1 − µ1 < 1 and otherwise system (2.1)
r2
become unstable in B − W plane.

The variational matrix V (E 3 ) at equilibrium point E 3 is given by

b11 b12 b13 

V (E3 ) = b21 b22 b23 .
 0 0 b33 

Where
~
2r1 B ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
b11 = r1 − − s1W − 2s 2 B W − µ1 , b12 = −s1 B − s 2 B 2 , b13 = k1 , b21 = β1s1W + 2β 2 s2 B W ,
K
~
2r2W ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~
b22 = r2 − + β 1 s1 B + β 2 s 2 B 2 − µ 2 , b23 = k 2 , b33 = α 1 s1 BW + α 2 s 2 B 2W .
L

The characteristic polynomial for the variational matrix V (E 3 ) is

(λ − b )(λ
33
2
+ B1 λ + B2 ) = 0, (4.1)

where

B1 = −b11 − b22 ,
B2 = b11b22 − b12 b21 .

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Then by Routh-Hurwitz criteria equilibrium E 3 is locally asymptotically stable in B − W plane if B1 > 0

and B2 > 0, and unstable in B − W − Wc plane if either of these conditions is not satisfied.

The variational matrix V (E 4 ) at equilibrium point E 4 is given by

c11 c12 c13 

V (E 4 ) = c 21 c 22 c 23 .
c31 c32 c33 

Where

2r1 B *
c11 = r1 − − s1W * −2s 2 B * W * − µ1 , c12 = − s1 B * − s 2 B *2 , c13 = k1 ,
K
2r W *
c21 = β1 s1W * +2β 2 s 2 B * W *, c 22 = r2 − 2 + β 1 s1 B * + β 2 s 2 B *2 − µ 2 , c23 = k 2 ,
L
c31 = (α 1 s1W * +2α 2 s 2 B * W *)Wc *, c32 = (α 1 s1 B * +α 2 s 2 B *2 )Wc *,
c33 = α1 s1 B * W * +α 2 s2 B *2W * −2 µ 0Wc * .

The characteristic polynomial for the variational matrix V (E 4 ) is

λ3 + C1 λ2 + C 2 λ + C 3 = 0, (4.2)

where

C1 = −c11 − c 22 − c33 ,
C 2 = c11c 22 + c11c33 + c 22 c33 − c12 c 21 − c13 c31 − c 23 c32 ,
C 3 = −c11c 22 c33 + c12 c 21c33 + c11c32 c 23 + c13 c31c 22 − c 23 c31c12 − c13 c 21 c32 .

Then by Routh-Hurwitz criteria equilibrium E 4 is locally asymptotically stable if C1 > 0, C 3 > 0, and
C1C 2 > C 3 and unstable if either of these conditions is not satisfied.

Result: From section 4, we concluded following results:

I. Equilibrium point E 0 is unstable in B − W plane.

II. Equilibrium point E1 is stable in B − direction and unstable in W − direction.
III. Equilibrium point E 2 is stable in W − direction and stable in B − W plane if
s L(r − µ 2 )
r1 − µ1 < 1 2 .
r2
IV. Equilibrium point E 3 is unstable in B − W − Wc plane and equilibrium point E 4 is locally
asymptotically stable in B − W − Wc plane if it satisfies Routh-Hurwitz criteria.

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5 Persistence

du
Lemma(5.1): If p > 0, q > 0 and ≤ (≥ ) u (t ) (q − pu (t )), u (t 0 ) > 0, then we have
dt
q  q
lim sup u (t ) ≤  lim inf u (t ) ≥  .
t →∞ p  t →∞ p
Theorem (5.1): The system (2.1) persistence provided,
(i) µ1 + s1U m < r1 ,
(ii) µ 2 < r2 .

Proof: Let (B,W ,W ) be unique positive solution of the system (2.1)

c
with initial
conditions (B (0), W (0), W (0 )) . Then with the help of the system (2.1) and lemma we obtain
c

M
(i) lim sup U (t ) ≤ = Um,
t →∞ δ − k1 − k 2
K (r1 + δ − µ1 ) L(r2 + δ − µ 2 )
2 2

where U (t ) = B(t ) + W (t ) , M = + , δ > k1 + k 2 .

4r1 4r2
α s U 2 + α 2 s 2U m3
(ii) lim sup Wc (t ) ≤ 1 1 m = Wcm .
t →∞ µ0

Now, with the help of U m , Wcm and the system (2.1) we get

K (r1 − µ1 − s1U m )
(i) lim inf B (t ) ≥ = Bmin ,
t →∞
r1 + Ks 2U m
L(r2 − µ 2 + β 1 s1 Bmin + β 2 s 2 Bmin
2
) =W ,
(ii) lim inf W (t ) ≥ min
t →∞
r2
2
α 1 s1 BminWmin + α 2 s 2 Bmin Wmin
(iii) lim inf W c (t ) ≥ = Wc min ,
t →∞
µ0
Hence we have

(i) lim inf B(t ) > 0 ,

t →∞

(ii) lim inf W (t ) > 0 ,

t →∞

(iii) lim inf Wc (t ) > 0 ,

t →∞
provided the following holds

(i) µ1 + s1U m < r1 , (5.1)

(ii) µ 2 < r2 .
Thus, model system (2.1) is persistent under the conditions given in (5.1).

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Result: Using Lemma (5.1) and Theorem (5.1), we get conditions of persistence for the system (2.1). That
means all population of the system will survive in future time.

6 Numerical Simulation

To check the feasibility of our analysis regarding existence of interior equilibrium and its stability conditions
of the system (2.1), we integrate it numerically by fourth order Runge – Kutta Method using the following
set of hypothetical parameters

r1 = 1, r2 = 0.2, s1 = 0.005, L = 100, s 2 = 0.006, k1 = 0.05, µ1 = 0.01, µ 2 = 0.05,

µ 0 = 0.01, k 2 = 0.001, α 1 = 0.01, α 2 = 0.01, β 1 = 0.0001, β 2 = 0.0001, K = 200. (6.1)
With the above parameter values, we get following equilibrium values of variables used in the model

B* = 1.4654,W * = 75.0111, Wc * = 1.5190.

6.1 Discussion

The stability behavior of the system (2.1) can be depicted by Fig. 1. The graph shows that variation of
population with time. Firstly the values of population increase and reach their peak value then start decrease
and all trajectory of population goes to their equilibrium point. Fig. 2 shows the variation of wildlife
conservation with forestry biomass and wildlife population. It depicts the global stability of the system. For
any initial start all trajectories of population trend to their equilibrium points. Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 shows the
depletion of forestry biomass due to wildlife population. Increasing the values of s1 and s 2 the density of
forestry biomass decreases. By analyzing the Fig. 5 and Fig. 6, we find out that the growth rate of wildlife
population increases with increasing the values of β 1 and β 2 . From Fig. 7 and Fig. 8, we see that increasing
the values of α 1 and α 2 ,the density of wildlife conservation increases. In the presence of wildlife
conservation the growth rate of forestry biomass and wildlife population increases (Fig. 9 and Fig. 10). With
the increasing of rate of illegal trade the growth rate of forestry biomass and wildlife population decreases
(Fig. 11 and Fig. 12). From Fig. 13, we see that increasing the rate of failure of governance the growth rate
of wildlife conservation decreases.
180

B
160
W
140 Wc

120
Total Population

100

80

60

40

20

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Time

Fig. 1. Stable behavior of B, W and Wc with time and other parameter values are same as (6.1)

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25 8

7
20
6
Wildlife Conservation

Wildlife Conservation
15 5

10
3

2
5 Equilibrium Point
Equilibrium Point 1

0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Forestry Biomass Wildlife Population

Fig. 2a. Fig. 2b.

Fig. 2. Variation of wildlife conservation with the forestry biomass and wildlife population respectively
50

45 s1=0.005

40
s1=0.05
s1=0.5
35
Forestry Biomass

30

25

20

15

10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Time

Fig. 3. Variation of the forestry biomass with time for different values of s1 and other parameter
values are same as (6.1)
50

45 s2=0.006
s2=0.06
40
s2=0.6
35
Forestry Biomass

30

25

20

15

10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Time

Fig. 4. Variation of the forestry biomass with time for different values of s1 and other parameter
values are same as (6.1)

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80

70

β =0.0001
60 1
β =0.6

Wildlife Population
1
50 β =1
1

40

30

20

10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Time

Fig. 5. Variation of the wildlife population with time for different values of β 1 and other parameter
values are same as (6.1)

80

70
β 2=0.0001
60
β 2=0.1
Wildlife Population

50
β 2=1

40

30

20

10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Time

Fig. 6. Variation of the wildlife population with time for different values of β 2 and other parameter
values are same as (6.1)

25

α =0.01
1
20 α 1=0.06
Wildlife Conservation

α =0.08
1

15

10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Time

Fig. 7. Variation of the wildlife conservation with time for different values of α 1 and other parameter
values are same as (6.1)

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180

160
α =0.01
2
140
α =0.02

Wildlife Conservation
2
120 α =0.04
2

100

80

60

40

20

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Time

Fig. 8. Variation of the wildlife conservation with time for different values of α 2 and other parameter
values are same as (6.1)

60

k1=0.05
50
k1=0.5
k1=0.8
Forestry Biomass

40

30

20

10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Time

Fig. 9. Variation of the forestry biomass with time for different values of k1 and other parameter
values are same as (6.1)

90

80

70
k2=0.001
Wildlife Population

60
k2=0.1
50 k2=06
40

30

20

10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Time

Fig. 10. Variation of the wildlife population with time for different values of k 2 and other parameter
values are same as (6.1)

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50

45 µ 1=0.01

40 µ 1=0.1

µ 1=0.8
35

Forestry Biomass
30

25

20

15

10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Time
Fig. 11. Variation of the forestry biomass with time for different values of µ1 and other parameter
values are same as (6.1)
80

70

60
Wildlife Population

50
µ =0.05
2
40 µ =0.07
2
µ =0.09
2
30

20

10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Time

Fig. 12. Variation of the wildlife population with time for different values of µ 2 and other parameter
values are same as (6.1)
15

µ =0.01
0
µ =0.04
0
Wildlife Conservation

µ =0.06
0
10

0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Time
Fig. 13. Variation of the wildlife conservation with time for different values of µ 0 and other parameter
values are same as (6.1)

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8 Conclusion
In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed for conservation of forestry biomass
and wildlife population. We have obtained the conditions that determine the stability of equilibrium points of
the system (2.1). We also found out the sufficient conditions that ensure the persistence of the system. From
the analysis of the system (2.1), we observed the depletion of forestry biomass and wildlife population can
be reduced by wildlife conservation. For obtaining good result of wildlife conservation, the rate of failure of
governance must be decrease.

Acknowledgements
Author Rachana Pathak thankfully acknowledges the NBHM (2/40(29)/2014/R&D-11/14138) for the
financial assistance in the form of PDF.

Competing Interests

Authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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