The Australian Economy and Financial

Markets
Chart Pack | March 2021
The Australian Economy and Financial Markets
Contents
World Economy 1
Australian Growth 4
Australian Inflation 5
Household Sector 6
Business Sector 8
Credit and Money 11
Factors of Production and Labour Market 12
Regions and Industry 14
Government 15
Commodity Prices 16
Balance of Payments and External Position 17
Interest Rates 19
Share Markets 24
Bond Issuance 25
Exchange Rates 27
Banking Indicators 29
© Reserve Bank of Australia 2021

Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, and the permissions explicitly granted below, all other
rights are reserved in all materials contained in this publication.

All materials contained in this publication, with the exception of any Excluded Material as defined on the RBA website,
are provided under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The materials covered by this licence
may be used, reproduced, published, communicated to the public and adapted provided that the RBA is properly
attributed in the following manner:

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia 2021 OR Source: RBA 2021

For the full copyright and disclaimer provisions which apply to this publication, including those provisions which relate
to Excluded Material, see the RBA website.
World Economy
GDP Growth – World GDP Growth – China and India
Year-ended Year-ended
% % % %
Major trading partners*
China
10 10
5 5
India
World** 0 0
0 0
-10 -10

-5 -5
-20 -20

-10 -10 -30 -30

2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2008 2012 2016 2020
* Weighted using Australian export shares Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
** PPP-weighted; accounts for 85 per cent of world GDP
Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; IMF; RBA; Refinitiv

GDP Growth – Advanced Economies GDP Growth – East Asia

Year-ended Year-ended
% % % %
Japan Indonesia
US Euro area
5 5
6 6

0 0
South Korea
0 0
-5 -5
Malaysia
-6 -6
-10 -10

-12 -12
-15 -15

-20 -20 -18 -18

2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Source: Refinitiv Sources: CEIC Data; RBA

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 1
 W O R L D E CO N O M Y

Inflation – Advanced Economies* Inflation – China and India

Year-ended Year-ended
% % % %
India
US
4 4 15 15
Euro area

2 2 10 10

0 0 5 5
Japan

-2 -2 0 0

China
-4 -4 -5 -5
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021
* Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation for the US; Japan Source: CEIC Data
data excludes the effects of the consumption tax increase in April 2014
Sources: RBA; Refinitiv

Labour Markets – Advanced Economies Inflation – East Asia

% Unemployment rate % Year-ended
12 12 % %
Euro area Indonesia
8 8
15 15
US
4 4

10 10
% Wages growth* %
Year-ended

5 5 5 5

0 0
Japan 0 0
Malaysia South Korea
-5 -5
2009 2013 2017 2021
-5 -5
* Average hourly earnings for the US; compensation per employee for 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021
the euro area; smoothed full-time base wages for Japan
Sources: ECB; Eurostat; RBA; Refinitiv Sources: CEIC Data; RBA; Refinitiv

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 2
 W O R L D E CO N O M Y

China – Activity Indicators China – Residential Property Indicators

Year-ended growth Year-ended growth
index Manufacturing PMI* Industrial production % % New property prices Investment** %

60 15 Alternative* Land purchases

15 20
50 0
0 0
40 -15 Official
Other investment***
% Fixed asset investment Real retail sales % % Floor space sold Inventory %
30 20
50 25
15 10
0 0
0 0
-15 -10
-30 -20 -50 -25
2011 2016 2021 2011 2016 2021 2017 2021 2017 2021
* Diffusion index; average of the official and Caixin * China Index Academy
Sources: CEIC Data; Markit Economics; RBA ** Contributions of residential and non-residential investment
*** Construction, installation, equipment purchases and other
Sources: CEIC Data; CIA; CRIC; RBA

China – Total Social Financing Growth China – Gross Output of Selected Products*
Year-ended with contributions 2006 average = 100
% % index index

300 300
30 30
Household loans Electricity generation Steel products
Business financing*
250 250
Government bonds**
Plate glass
20 20 200 200

Crude steel
150 150
10 10 Cement

100 100

0 0
2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 50 50
* 2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020
Sum of business loans, securities financing and off-balance sheet
financing * Seasonally adjusted by the RBA
** Net government bond issuance includes local government bond Sources: CEIC Data; RBA
issuance to pay off debt previously classified as business financing,
and uses RBA estimates prior to 2016
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 3
Australian Growth
GDP Growth Contributions to GDP Growth
% Year-ended % Year-ended
ppt ppt
September 2020
4 4

2 2 2 2

0 0
Quarterly
-2 -2 0 0

-4 -4
-2 -2
-6 -6

-8 -8
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -4 -4

GDP

Consumption

investment

investment

Non-mining

Government

Exports

Imports
investment
Dwelling
Source: ABS

Mining
Sources: ABS; RBA

Mining and Non-mining Activity State Final Demand

Year-ended growth, RBA estimates Year-ended growth
% Mining* % % %
20 20 WA
Mining investment Resource exports 15 15
10 10
10 10
0 0
5 5
% Non-mining %
0 0
5 5 NSW and Vic
Rest of Australia
0 0 -5 -5

-5 -5 -10 -10

-10 -10 -15 -15

2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
* Net of mining-related imports; components are contributions to Sources: ABS; RBA
year-ended mining activity growth; contribution from changes in
inventories not shown
Sources: ABS; RBA

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 4
Australian Inflation
Consumer Price Inflation* Measures of Underlying Inflation*
% % Year-ended
Year-ended % %
4 4 Weighted median
5 5
3 3
Trimmed mean
4 4
2 2

1 1 3 3

0 0 2 2
Quarterly
(seasonally adjusted) CPI excl volatile items
-1 -1
1 1

-2 -2
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0 0
* Excludes interest charges prior to the September quarter 1998; 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
adjusted for the tax changes of 1999–2000 * Excludes interest charges prior to September 1998 and deposit & loan
Sources: ABS; RBA facilities prior to September 2011; adjusted for 1999–2000 tax changes
Sources: ABS; RBA

Tradable and Non-tradable Inflation*

% Non-tradables** %
4 4
Year-ended
2 2
0 Quarterly 0
(seasonally adjusted)
-2 -2

% Tradables excl volatiles %

4 4

2 2

0 0

-2 -2
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
* Adjusted for the tax changes of 1999–2000
** Excludes interest charges and indirect deposit & loan facilities
Sources: ABS; RBA

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 5
Household Sector
Household Income and Consumption* Consumer Sentiment*
% Real, year-ended growth % Average since 1980 = 100
Consumption index index
8 8

0 0
Disposable income
-8 -8
100 100

% Saving ratio %

16 16

8 8 85 85

0 0

-8 -8
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 70 70
* Household sector includes unincorporated enterprises; disposable 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
income is after tax and interest payments; saving ratio is net of * Average of the ANZ-Roy Morgan and Westpac-Melbourne Institute
depreciation
consumer sentiment measure of respondents’ perceptions of their
Sources: ABS; RBA personal finances relative to the previous year; ANZ-Roy Morgan
index rescaled to have the same average as the Westpac-Melbourne
Institute index since 1996
Sources: ANZ-Roy Morgan; RBA; Westpac and Melbourne Institute

Private Dwelling Investment* Private Residential Building Approvals

Chain volume, quarterly Monthly
$b $b ’000 ’000

20 20
24 24 Detached houses
Total
16 16

18 18 12 12

8 8
12 12
4 4
Higher-density housing
6 6 0 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
* Reference year is 2018/19 Source: ABS
Source: ABS

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 6
 H O U S E H O L D S E C TO R

Housing Prices and Household Debt* Household Wealth and Liabilities*

Ratio to household disposable income Per cent of annual household disposable income
ratio ratio % %
Housing prices Household debt
Net wealth

5 2.0 600 600

Dwellings
4 1.5 400 400

Financial assets
3 1.0 200 200

Liabilities
2 0.5 0 0
1990 2005 20201990 2005 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
* Household disposable income is after tax, before the deduction of * Household disposable income is after tax, before the deduction of
interest payments, and includes income of unincorporated enterprises interest payments, and includes income of unincorporated enterprises
Sources: ABS; CoreLogic; RBA Sources: ABS; RBA

Housing Prices Housing Loan Commitments*

Year-ended growth, seasonally adjusted Excluding refinancing
% % $b $b
ABS*
15 15 25 25
APM***
10 10 20 20
Total
Residex*
5 5 15 15
Owner-occupier
0 0 10 10

-5 -5 Investor
5 5
CoreLogic**

-10 -10
2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 0 0
2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
* ABS is a quarterly stratified median price index; Residex is a quarterly
* Seasonally adjusted
repeat sales price index
** Monthly hedonic price index; non-seasonally adjusted Sources: ABS; RBA
*** Quarterly stratified median price index
Sources: ABS; APM; CoreLogic; RBA; Residex

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 7
Business Sector
Business Investment* Capital Expenditure – Mining and Non-mining*
Share of nominal GDP Nominal, log scale
% % $b $b
Mining Non-mining
128 128
18 18
64 64

16 16 32 32

16 16
14 14

8 8
12 12
4 4

10 10 2 2
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 93 / 94 07 / 08 21 / 22 93 / 94 07 / 08 21 / 22
* * Dots are firms’ expectations for 2020/21 and 2021/22; adjusted for
Adjusted for second-hand asset transfers between the private and
other sectors historical differences between expected and realised spending
Source: ABS Sources: ABS; RBA

Business Investment Components* Industry Share of Business Investment*

Share of nominal GDP % %
% %
50 50
Machinery and equipment
8 8 Manufacturing Mining
40 40
Financial and Retail and
6 6 insurance services wholesale trade
30 30
Other business
services** Construction
4 4 20 20
Buildings
Agriculture
10 10
2 2
Engineering
0 0
0 0 94 / 95 99 / 00 04 / 05 09 / 10 14 / 15 19 / 20
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 * Nominal; includes second hand asset transfers
* Adjusted for second-hand asset transfers between the private and ** Includes: information media and telecommunications; rental, hiring
other sectors and real estate services; professional, scientific and technical services;
Source: ABS administrative and support services
Source: ABS

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 8
 B U S I N E S S S E C TO R

Private Non-financial Corporation Profits* NAB Business Survey

Share of nominal GDP ppt Business conditions* ppt
% % 15 15

0 0
16 16
Non-mining -15 -15

12 12 -30 -30

ppt Business confidence* ppt

8 8
Mining 0 0

4 4 -30 -30

-60 -60
0 0
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
* Gross operating profits; inventory valuation adjusted % Capacity utilisation %
Sources: ABS; RBA
84 84

80 80
Lending to Business* 76
Average since 1989
76
Break-adjusted
$b $b
Exposures data EFS data 72 72

68 68
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
600 600
* Net balance; deviation from average since 1989
Sources: NAB; RBA

400 400

Large business

200 200
Medium business
Small business

0 0
2012 2016 2020 S D M J S D M
2019 2020 2021
* Exposures data capture credit exposures on the balance sheets of
banks allowed by APRA to use an internal ratings-based approach
for credit risk management; EFS data are based on reporting of banks
and finance companies that have $2 billion or more of business credit
Sources: APRA; RBA

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 9
 B U S I N E S S S E C TO R

Business Lending Rates Lending to Businesses

Average interest rate on credit outstanding Not seasonally adjusted, break-adjusted
% % $b $b
Small business Medium business Large business Small business Medium business Large business

600 600
6 6
Fixed-rate
450 450
4 4
Secured by
residential 300 300
property*
Variable-rate
2 2
150 150

0 0 0 0
S D M J S D M S D M J S D M S D M J S D M S D M J S D M S D M J S D M S D M J S D M
2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
* Small business loans secured by residential property can have fixed Secured (other) Unsecured
or variable interest rate terms Secured (residential property) Secured
Sources: APRA; RBA Sources: APRA; RBA

Business Loan Commitments* Lending to Selected Industries

Small and medium-sized businesses, excluding refinancing Small and medium-sized businesses, credit outstanding
$b $b $b $b
Highly affected by COVID-19* Less affected by COVID-19*
Other** Purchase of property
Working capital Construction Rental
Plant and equipment
9 9
80 80
Agriculture
Total
6 6 Other highly
affected** Other services***
40 40

3 3 Accom & food Construction

Admin Healthcare

0 0 0 0
S D M J S D M S D M J S D M S D M J S D M
2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
* Highly affected industries had the highest share of businesses report
* Fixed-term loans; not seasonally adjusted
a fall in revenue of greater than 50 per cent in a June 2020 ABS
** Wholesale finance, acquisitions and general business purposes survey; less affected industries are the top four by value of SME lending
Sources: APRA; RBA ** Education & training; arts & recreation; information media & telecoms
*** Other services includes a broad range of personal services, selected
repair and maintenance activities and households employing staff
Sources: APRA; RBA
C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 10
Credit and Money
Credit and Broad Money Growth Housing Credit Growth
Year-ended % Owner-occupier Investor %
% %
12 12
Broad money Six-month
annualised
9 9
15 15
6 6

3 3
10 10
0 0

Credit % %
5 5 Monthly
0.5 0.5

0.0 0.0
0 0
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 -0.5 -0.5
Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA 2011 2016 2021 2011 2016 2021
Sources: APRA; RBA

Monetary Aggregates Growth Credit Growth by Sector

Year-ended Year-ended
% % % %
M3 Housing
20 20 20 20

15 15 10 10

Business
10 10 0 0
Personal

5 5 -10 -10
Currency

0 0 -20 -20
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021
Sources: APRA; RBA Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 11
Factors of Production and Labour Market
Factors of Production Wage Price Index Growth*
Annual growth % %
% Net capital stock* %

5 5 4 4

3 3 3 3
Year-ended

% Working-age population %
2 2

2.0 2.0 Quarterly

1 1
1.5 1.5

0 0
1.0 1.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
84 / 85 91 / 92 98 / 99 05 / 06 12 / 13 19 / 20 * Total pay excluding bonuses
* Excluding livestock & orchards, dwellings and ownership transfer costs Source: ABS
Sources: ABS; RBA

Capital Ratios* Unit Labour Costs Growth

1979/80 = 100 Non-farm, year-ended
index index % Unit labour costs %
10 10
200 200 5 5
Capital–labour ratio
0 0
175 175
-5 -5

150 150 % %

10 10
125 125 Average earnings per hour

Capital–output ratio 5 5
100 100
0 0
Labour productivity per hour
75 75 -5 -5
84 / 85 91 / 92 98 / 99 05 / 06 12 / 13 19 / 20 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
* Capital stock excludes livestock & orchards, dwellings and ownership Sources: ABS; RBA
transfer costs
Sources: ABS; RBA

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 12
 FA C TO R S O F P R O D U C T I O N A N D L A B O U R M A R K E T

Employment and Participation Rates Employment and Hours Worked*

% % 2008 average = 100
Participation rate index index

64 64
120 120

61 61 Employment
110 110

58 58 Total hours worked

100 100
Employment to working-age population ratio
Average hours worked
55 55
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 90 90
Source: ABS 2009 2013 2017 2021
* Seasonally adjusted
Sources: ABS; RBA

Labour Underutilisation Rates Job Vacancies and Advertisements

Heads-based Per cent of labour force
% % % %

2.5 2.5
Advertisements
12 12 (NSC)
2.0 2.0
Vacancies*
(ABS survey)
9 9 1.5 1.5
Underemployment rate*

1.0 1.0
Advertisements
6 6 (ANZ survey)
0.5 0.5
Unemployment rate

3 3 0.0 0.0
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2009 2013 2017 2021
* Full-time workers on reduced hours for economic reasons and * This survey was suspended between May 2008 and November 2009
part-time workers who would like, and are available, to work more hours Sources: ABS; ANZ; National Skills Commission (NSC); RBA
Source: ABS

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 13
Regions and Industry
State Share of Output State Unemployment Rates*
Nominal Seasonally adjusted
% % % %
South Australia
New South Wales
35 35 Queensland
8 8
30 30 Tasmania
Victoria
Victoria 7 7
25 25

20 20 6 6
Queensland
15 15
5 5
Western Australia
Western Australia
10 10
South Australia
4 4
5 5 New South Wales
Tasmania
0 0 3 3
89 / 90 94 / 95 99 / 00 04 / 05 09 / 10 14 / 15 19 / 20 2017 2021 2017 2021
* The trend series have been suspended from April 2020 until more
Source: ABS
certainty emerges in the underlying trend in labour market activity
over the COVID-19 period
Source: ABS

Industry Share of Output* Employment Growth by Industry*

% % Cumulative change since March 2013
Other business services** ’000 ’000

Manufacturing
14 14 900 900
Retail and wholesale Business
trade services
600 600
Household
10 10 Public
Financial and insurance services services
administration
300 300
Construction Construction
Other**
6 6
Mining 0 0
Retail and Mining Manufacturing
Agriculture wholesale trade
2 2 -300 -300
89 / 90 94 / 95 99 / 00 04 / 05 09 / 10 14 / 15 19 / 20 2016 2020 2016 2020
* Nominal gross value added * The trend series have been suspended from June 2020 until more
** Includes: information media and telecommunications; rental, hiring certainty emerges in the underlying trend in labour market activity
and real estate services; professional, scientific and technical services; over the COVID-19 period
administrative and support services ** Includes agriculture, forestry & fishing; transport, postal & warehousing;
and electricity, gas, water & waste services
Source: ABS
Source: ABS

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 14
Government
Australian Government Budget Balance* State Budget Balances*
Per cent of nominal GDP Per cent of nominal GDP
% % % %

0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0

-2.5 -2.5 0.5 0.5

-5.0 -5.0 0.0 0.0

-7.5 -7.5 -0.5 -0.5

-10.0 -10.0 -1.0 -1.0

-12.5 -12.5 -1.5 -1.5

83 / 84 91 / 92 99 / 00 07 / 08 15 / 16 23 / 24 83 / 84 90 / 91 97 / 98 04 / 05 11 / 12 18 / 19
* Underlying cash balance; 2020/21 Mid-year economic and fiscal outlook * Underlying cash balance
Source: Australian Treasury Source: ABS

Public Construction Work Done Taxation Revenue Growth

Per cent of nominal GDP Nominal, year-ended with contributions
% % % Total GST %
Total Household income tax Other
Corporate income tax*
10 10
3 3

5 5
2 2
0 0
Engineering

1 1
-5 -5

Building
0 0 -10 -10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Source: ABS * Only includes taxation of resident corporations
Source: ABS

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 15
Commodity Prices
RBA Index of Commodity Prices Oil and LNG Prices
SDR, 2018/19 average = 100, log scale Monthly
index index US$/b US$/
Brent oil MMBtu
135 135 (LHS)
125 25

100 100
100 20

75 15
65 65

50 10

25 5
Japan and Korea LNG spot
(RHS)
30 30 0 0
1991 1997 2003 2009 2015 2021 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Source: RBA Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; Refinitiv

Bulk Commodity Prices Terms of Trade*

Free on board basis 2018/19 average = 100, log scale
US$/t Iron ore Thermal coal Coking coal US$/t index index
(LHS) (LHS) (RHS)
120 120

165 350
100 100
Spot price*
Average Australian
export price
80 80
120 250

60 60
75 150

30 50 40 40
2015 2021 2015 2021 2015 2021 1960 1980 2000 2020
* Iron ore 62% Fe Fines Index; Newcastle thermal coal and premium * Annual data are used prior to 1960
hard coking coal
Sources: ABS; RBA
Sources: ABS; Bloomberg; IHS Markit; RBA

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 16
Balance of Payments and External Position
Export Volumes Resource Exports*
Log scale, quarterly Log scale, quarterly
$b $b Mt Mt

Resources Services LNG

40 16 200 12

Rural
Iron ore

20 8 100 6

Manufacturing
Coal
10 4 50 3
2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020 2010 2015 2020 2010 2015 2020
Sources: ABS; RBA * Seasonally adjusted by the RBA
Sources: ABS; Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources;
RBA

Import Volumes Exports by Destination

Log scale, quarterly Annual, share of total values
$b $b % %

30 30
32 32
Intermediate China
Consumption 25 25

16 16
20 20
Japan
Services
8 8 15 15
EU-27
Capital
10 10
South Korea
4 4
5 5
India US
2 2 0 0
2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
Source: ABS Source: ABS

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 17
 B A L A N C E O F PAY M E N T S A N D E X T E R N A L P O S I T I O N

Current Account Balance Net Capital Inflow*

Per cent of nominal GDP Per cent of nominal GDP
% % % %
Debt
8 8
Trade balance
3 3 6 6
Net income balance Total
4 4
0 0 2 2
0 0
Equity
-3 -3 -2 -2
-4 -4
-6 -6 -6 -6

Current account balance -8 -8

-9 -9 -10 -10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Source: ABS * 2020 values include the March, June and September quarters
Source: ABS

Net Foreign Liabilities External Position*

By type, per cent of nominal GDP Composition after hedging, quarterly
% % $b $b
Gross foreign liabilities Gross foreign assets
Total
60 60
4,000 4,000
Foreign currency
45 45
Australian dollar
Long-term debt* 3,000 3,000
30 30
Short-term debt*
15 15 2,000 2,000

0 0
Equity
1,000 1,000
-15 -15

-30 -30 0 0
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2008 2014 2008 2014 2020
* * Hedge ratios inferred from ABS Foreign Currency Exposure surveys
Short-term includes debt with residual maturity of one year or less;
long-term includes all other debt Sources: ABS; RBA
Source: ABS

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 18
Interest Rates
Australian Cash Rate Target
% %
7 7
Policy Interest Rates
% %
US
5 5

6 6
4 4
5 5
3 3
4 4 Euro area*
2 2
3 3
1 1
2 2

1 1 0 0
Japan
0 0 -1 -1
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2009 2013 2017 2021
Source: RBA * Main refinancing rate until the introduction of 3-year LTROs in
December 2011; deposit facility rate thereafter
Source: Central banks

Australian Cash Rate and 90-day Bill Yield Policy Interest Rates – Selected
% %
Advanced Economies
% %
8 8
NZ
8 8
6 6
90-day bill yield
6 UK 6
Cash rate
4 4
target
4 4
2 2
2 2
Real cash rate* Sweden
0 0 Canada
0 0
-2 -2
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 Switzerland
* -2 -2
Calculated using average of year-ended weighted median inflation
2009 2013 2017 2021
and year-ended trimmed mean inflation
Sources: ABS; AFMA; ASX; RBA Source: Central banks

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 19
 I N T E R E S T R AT E S

Monetary Policy – China 10-year Australian Government Bond Yield

% Interest rates % % %
Reserve requirement ratios
7 7
One-year MLF* Large institutions
6 20 6 6
One-year
benchmark
5 5
lending
4 15 4 4

Medium institutions 3 3

2 10 2 2
Seven-day
repo One-year Small institutions
(month average) benchmark 1 1
deposit
0 5 0 0
2011 2016 2021 2011 2016 2021 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021
* Medium term lending facility Sources: RBA; Yieldbroker
Sources: CEIC Data; RBA

Policy Interest Rates – Emerging Markets 10-year Government Bond Yields

% % % %
Brazil Russia* 6 6
12 16
US
Indonesia* 5 5
China
9 12 4 4
India
3 3
Germany
6 8
Philippines 2 2

1 1
3 4
Malaysia Japan
South Mexico 0 0
Thailand South Korea Africa
0 0 -1 -1
2009 2015 2021 2009 2015 2021 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021
* Breaks in series indicate changes in the official policy rates for Russia Sources: CEIC Data; Refinitiv
(September 2013) and Indonesia (August 2016)
Source: Central banks

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 20
 I N T E R E S T R AT E S

Spread between Australian 10-year Bond Australian Non-financial Corporate Bond Yields
3-year target
Yield and the Cash Rate Target % %
ppt ppt
BBB
4 4
9 9

2 2

6 6
0 0
A
-2 -2
3 3

-4 -4

0 0
-6 -6 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Source: RBA

Differential between Australian and Australian Non-financial Corporate Bond Spreads

US 10-year Government Bond Yields Spread to government yields; 3-year target
bps bps
bps bps

400 400 800 800

300 300
600 600
BBB
200 200
400 400
100 100

200 200
0 0
A

0 0
-100 -100 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Sources: RBA; Refinitiv; Yieldbroker

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 21
 I N T E R E S T R AT E S

US Corporate Bond Yields Chinese Corporate Bond Yields

% % 5-year maturity
% %
10 10
BBB corporates*
8 8 8 8
Low-rated*

6 6
AA corporates* 6 6

4 4

2 2 4 4
High-rated**
Five-year swap
0 0
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2 2
* Includes financials and non-financials 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Source: ICE Data is used with permission * Based on AA- domestically rated bond
** Based on AAA domestically rated bond
Source: CEIC Data

US Corporate Bond Spreads Emerging Market Government Bond Yields*

To US government bonds US dollar-denominated
bps bps % %

600 600 20 20
BBB corporates* Europe

400 400 15 15
AA corporates* Latin America

200 200 10 10

Asia
0 0 5 5
Five-year swap

-200 -200 0 0
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
* Includes financials and non-financials * Weighted average across issuers
Sources: Bloomberg; ICE Data is used with permission Source: J.P. Morgan

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 22
 I N T E R E S T R AT E S

Variable Housing Interest Rates Fixed Housing Interest Rates

% % 3-year maturity
% %
Major banks’
reference rates 12 12
5 5
Outstanding loans*
10 10
New loans*
4 4 8 8
Advertised*
6 6

3 3 Swap rate
4 4

2 2
2 2
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 0
* Series break in July 2019; thereafter, data based on EFS collection 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Sources: APRA; banks' websites; CANSTAR; RBA; Securitisation System * Available to owner-occupiers
Sources: Banks’ websites; CANSTAR; RBA; Refinitiv

Housing Interest Rates* Australian Business Lending Rates*

Outstanding loans Average interest rate on credit outstanding
% Owner-occupier Investor % % %
Small loans
5.0 5.0
8 8

4.5 4.5 Small business

Interest-only (EFS)
6 6
Large loans
4.0 4.0

4 4
3.5 3.5
Medium business
Principal-and-interest (EFS)
3.0 3.0 2 2
Large business
(EFS)
2.5 2.5 0 0
2017 2021 2017 2021 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
* Average of variable-rate securitised loans to 2019; thereafter, average * Small loans are loans less than $2 million; large loans are loans $2
of fixed and variable-rate loans, based on EFS data million or more; new series from July 2019 are from the Economic
Sources: APRA; RBA; Securitisation System and Financial Statistics (EFS) collection (see Statistical Table F7)
Sources: APRA; RBA

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 23
Share Markets
Share Price Accumulation Indices Advanced Economies’ Share Price Indices
Log scale, end December 1994 = 100 Log scale, end December 1994 = 100
index index index index
800 800
1,100 1,100
900 900 600 600

700 700 400 400

ASX 200 Euro area US
500 500
S&P 500
200 200
300 300
UK
100 100
MSCI world
Japan
100 100
80 80 40 40
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Sources: RBA; Refinitiv Sources: Bloomberg; RBA

Emerging Markets’ Share Price Indices*

Log scale, end December 1994 = 100
index index
1,500 1,500
Emerging Europe
1,000 1,000
Latin America
500 500

China
200 200

World
100 100

Emerging Asia

40 40
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
* MSCI indices; Shanghai Composite Index for China
Sources: Bloomberg; MSCI; RBA

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 24
Bond Issuance
Bonds on Issue in Australia Total Non-government Bonds on Issue
$b $b All currency denominations
$b $b
700 700

600 600 600 600

500 500 Financials

Non-government** 450 450
400 400

300 300 Non-financial

300 300
corporations
200 200
Australian State
government* governments 150 150
100 100
Asset-backed
0 0 Non-residents*
securities
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 0 0
* Excludes bonds purchased by the Australian Government 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
** Excludes ADIs’ self-securitisations, includes government-guaranteed * Australian dollar-denominated bonds only
bonds Sources: ABS; Bloomberg; KangaNews; Private Placement Monitor; RBA
Sources: ABS; AOFM; Bloomberg; KangaNews; Private Placement
Monitor; RBA; State Treasury Corporations

Non-government Bond Issuance Non-government Bonds on Issue in Australia

Gross issuance $b $b
$b Australia $b
Domestic issuers*
Non-resident issuers**
40 40 200 200
Financials
20 20 150 150

Asset-backed securities*
$b Offshore $b
100 100
60 60

40 40 50 50
Non-financial
20 20 Non-residents corporations
0 0
0 0 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 * Excludes ADIs’ self-securitisations
* Excludes ADIs’ self-securitisations Sources: ABS; Bloomberg; KangaNews; Private Placement Monitor; RBA
** Offshore non-resident issuance includes Australian dollar-denominated
bonds only
Sources: Bloomberg; KangaNews; Private Placement Monitor; RBA

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 25
 B O N D I S S UA N C E

US and Euro Area Corporate Bond Issuance* Emerging Market Corporate Bond Issuance*
Gross issuance Gross issuance
US$b US US$b US$b China US$b
Financials
500 500 Foreign currency-denominated
Non-financials 300 300
400 400 Local currency-denominated

300 300 200 200

200 200
100 100
100 100

US$b Euro area US$b US$b Other US$b

800 800 225 225
600 600
150 150
400 400
200 200 75 75

0 0 0 0
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021
* March 2021 is quarter-to-date * March 2021 is quarter-to-date
Sources: Dealogic; RBA Sources: Dealogic; RBA

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 26
Exchange Rates
Australian Dollar Trade-weighted Index* Official Reserve Assets*
A$b A$b
index index Official reserve assets
80 80
80 80
60 60
Real

70 70 40 40

20 20
60 60 Net foreign reserves**

A$b A$b
Nominal 4 4
50 50 2 2
RBA foreign exchange market intervention transactions***
0 0
-2 -2
40 40 -4 -4
1986 1993 2000 2007 2014 2021 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
* May 1970 = 100 for nominal; real indexed to equate post-float * The reporting methodology for official reserve asset data changes
averages; latest observations for real TWI are estimates in 2015
Sources: ABS; RBA; Refinitiv; WM/Reuters ** Excludes net forward foreign currency commitments
*** Data up to 30 June 2019; a positive value indicates a purchase of
foreign exchange, while a negative value indicates a sale of foreign
exchange
Source: RBA

Australian Dollar US Dollar

yen US$, yen US$
euro
250 0.80
US$ per euro*
200 1.60 (RHS, inverted scale)
Yen per A$ 210 1.00
(LHS)

150 1.20 170 1.20

US$ per A$
(RHS)
130 1.40
100 0.80 Yen per US$
(LHS)
90 1.60
Euro per A$*
(RHS)
50 0.40 50 1.80
1986 1993 2000 2007 2014 2021 1986 1993 2000 2007 2014 2021
* ECU per A$ until 31 December 1998 * US$ per ECU until 31 December 1998
Source: Bloomberg Sources: Bloomberg; Eurostat

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 27
 E XC H A N G E R AT E S

Selected Asian Currencies against the US Dollar G3 Nominal Trade-weighted Indices

31 January 2000 = 100 1999–2020 average = 100
index index index index
Singapore Japanese yen
140 140
120 120
South Korea US dollar
120 120
Thailand 110 110
Malaysia
100 100
100 100
80 80
India
90 90
60 60
Indonesia
Euro
40 40 80 80
2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021
Source: Bloomberg Sources: BIS; Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System

Chinese Renminbi
index yuan
Nominal effective exchange rate*
(LHS, 2010 average = 100)
120 6.0

110 6.5

100 7.0

90 7.5

80 8.0
Yuan per US$
(RHS, monthly average, inverted scale)
70 8.5

60 9.0
2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021
* Monthly average nominal rate calculated using BIS EER weights
Sources: BIS; Refinitv

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 28
Banking Indicators
Australian Bank Profitability* Australian Bank Profits
Return on shareholders’ equity after tax and minority interests Net profit after tax Bad and doubtful debts charge
% % $b Major banks Major banks $b

Majors 12 12
20 20

6 6

10 10

$b Other Australian-owned Other Australian-owned $b

Other Australian-owned banks banks banks
0 0
2.2 2.2

-10 -10 1.1 1.1

1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 2020
* Fiscal years from 2003 onwards; prior data are as reported in banks’
financial statements
Sources: APRA; Banks’ annual reports; RBA
$b Foreign-owned banks Foreign-owned banks $b

1.5 1.5

Major Banks’ Net Interest Margin*

Domestic, half-yearly 0.0 0.0
% %

-1.5 -1.5
2008 2014 2020 2008 2014 2020
3.0 3.0
Sources: APRA; RBA

2.5 2.5

2.0 2.0

1.5 1.5
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
* Data for a given period relate to banks’ public profit reports released
in that half; IFRS basis from 2006, AGAAP prior; excludes St George
Bank and Bankwest prior to the first half of 2009
Sources: Banks’ financial reports; RBA

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 29
 B A N K I N G I N D I C ATO R S

Banks’ Non-performing Assets Banks’ Non-performing Assets

Domestic books Consolidated global operations, share of on-balance sheet assets
% % % %
Share of all assets* Share of assets by type**

Total*
3 3 6 6
Business*
(56%)

2 2 4 4
Personal
Total (3%)

1 1 2 2
Impaired
Housing
(41%)
0 0 0 0
2008 2014 2020 2008 2014 2020 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
* Includes lending to financial businesses, bills, short-term and long-term * Includes assets 90+ days past due that are well secured
debt securities and other non-household loans
** Each category’s share of total domestic lending at September 2020 is Source: APRA
shown in parentheses; shares may not add up to 100 due to rounding
Sources: APRA; RBA

Funding Composition of Banks in Australia* Capital Ratios*

Share of total funding Consolidated global operations of locally incorporated ADIs
% % % %
Banks Other ADIs
60 60
20 20
Domestic deposits
50 50
Credit unions
15 15
40 40
Total
30 30
Short-term debt** 10 10
Tier 1 Building societies
20 20
Long-term debt
CET1
5 5
10 10
Securitisation TFF*** Tier 2
Equity
0 0 0 0
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 1993 2006 2019 1993 2006 2019
* Adjusted for movements in foreign exchange rates; tenor of debt is * Per cent of risk-weighted assets; break in March 2008 due to the
estimated on a residual maturity basis
introduction of Basel II for most ADIs; break in March 2013 due to the
** Includes deposits and intragroup funding from non-residents
introduction of Basel III for all ADIs
*** Term Funding Facility
Source: APRA
Sources: ABS; APRA; Bloomberg; RBA; Refinitiv; Standard & Poor’s

C H A R T PA C K | M A R C H 2 0 2 1 30