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Global Warming By Surging Sun Not CO2: 4 Slides, 4 Minutes

Technical Report · January 2021

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 Global warming by surging Sun, not CO2: 4 slides, 4 minutes
Dr Roger Higgs Geoclastica Ltd Technical Note 2021-2 22nd January 2021, amended 28-1-21 rogerhiggs@hotmail.com

Slide 1: Last 2,000 years Sun & temp. correlation

Vertical scale values
1 AD Red = 1700-1991 largest & highest solar surge in >9,000yr 2000 unimportant; but
https://www.pnas.org/content/109/16/5967 figS13 note proportionality
https://www.academia.edu/24429303 fig3a

SUN
magnetic output proxy,
10-yr smoothed

https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2011/07/aa15843-10/aa15843-10.html Matching ...

- pre-1700 gradient
(blue bars)
Red = thermometer - relative height (ratio)
HadCRUT 4 of pre-1700 up-down
‘sawteeth’ vs post-1700
TEMPERATURE rise (blue arrows)
global average, 25-yr smoothed,
proxy (mainly tree rings & ice Little Ice Age
cores). Antarctic composite ice-
core plot very similar, except
much less post-1800 warming prolonged Medieval Warm Period
(Stenni et al. 2017)

https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201788

Conclusion: Sun drives Earth temp.. Four black circles show ~100yr temp. lag, attributable to ocean thermal inertia & slow
circulation ... https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346792725 . Details of last 150yr in Slide 2 ...
Slide 2: Last 150 years Sun & (lagged) temp. correlation
Vertical scale values
unimportant; but
note proportionality

SUN
magnetic output proxy,
Group Sunspot Number (GSN),
black = 30-yr smoothed

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Solar_Activity_Proxies.png
After applying 75yr temp. lag ...

Matching ...

- up-down ‘sawteeth’ (black bars)

1875 1975 - long-term gradient (rise)

TEMPERATURE - ratio of total climb

global, thermometer vs up-down ‘sawteeth’
(blue arrows)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/monitoring/index.html

Conclusion: Sun drives Earth temp.

NB In 2015 SILSO (IPCC-related) “corrected” the GSN series, almost removing the climb ... http://www.stce.be/press/01/welcome.html
restored by Chatzistergos et al. 2017, fig. 5 ... https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2017/06/aa30045-16/aa30045-16.html
For more on ‘ocean lag’, see my https://www.researchgate.net/publication/345778067 and https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341078096
Slide 3: Last 2,000 years CO2 & temp. non-correlation Vertical scale values
unimportant; but
note proportionality
1 AD 2000
Man-made CO2 since ~1850
start of Industrial Revolution

CO2 Reverse trend; sawteeth minuscule

ice core

https://science.nasa.gov/wavelength-topics/mathematics?page=33

Non-matching ...

- pre-1700 gradient (blue bars)

- relative height (ratio) of

pre-1700 up-down ‘sawteeth’
vs post-1700 climb (red arrows)
Red = thermometer
HadCRUT 4
(Slide 2)
TEMPERATURE
proxy, global average,
25-yr smoothed

https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201788

Conclusion: CO2 does not drive Earth temp.. Industrial CO2 post-1850 rise (Slide 4) accompanied Sun-driven
warming (Slides 1, 2) by pure chance.
Slide 4: Last 150 years CO2 & temp. spurious ‘correlation’

Vertical scale values

Man-made CO2 since ~1850 unimportant; but
start of Industrial Revolution note proportionality
January 14, 2021
1850 2000
1975
Ice−core data before 1958. Mauna Loa data after 1958.

400
CO2 Concentration (ppm)

350 CO2 ppm, air

https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu
300

250

200 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

CO2 lacks multi-decade

up-down ’sawteeth’
(cf. black bars below)

1900 2000 Contrast Sun (Slide 2)

TEMPERATURE
same as Slide 2

Slides 1-4 Conclusions: CO2 does not affect Earth temperature. Industrial CO2 post-1850 rise accompanied Sun-driven warming by
chance. IPCC failings: (A) ignores ocean lag; (B) dismisses Svensmark Theory (Sun’s magnetic output governs cosmic-ray influx,
hence cloudiness, hence ocean temp.); (3) omits two feedbacks in its climate models: (i) little known natural cloud feedback &
(ii) increased BVOC aerosol due to faster forest growth by warming & CO2 fertilization. IPCC's influential fig.SPM.5 lists only man-
made aerosol-cloud feedbacks ... https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf (& note very wide “uncertainty
intervals”). See my 5-minute https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348369922 & https://www.researchgate.net/publication/347356327
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