y aal Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/05/23 : CIA-RDP78.01617A000800030001-8 - e / oe GEITRAL TIELLIGEIGE AGENT 34 28 March 1950 IWTELLIGEIOE (GORADTY HO. 272 SUBJECT! Tho Probebility of Local Intexference with the Production and Uovonont of Certain Strategic Uateriols in the Evont of War before 1954 1, Tho attached ostimates (Enclosures "a" through "I") relate only to the probability of lost interference, by Communists or others (such as disaffected notionelists in colonial arons), with the production and novenent of the strategic ustoxicls indicated in exch case, in tho event of war between the 5 and the ISSR hefore 1954. 2, Significant interference is defined as at least 15 percent re~ duction in availability over a poricd of at least ons month, 3 The order of the Enclosures is as follous: As General Considerations (pe 1)¢ Be. Cansde (ps 3). Co Mexico (pe A)e D. The Caribbean (p. 5). E, South Americar Wost Coast (p. 7). FL South snerica: Bast Coast (p, 8). G. Southern Africa (p. 10}. H. The lfediterransan and Near East (p. il). Te India ond the Far East (p. 13). 4, A significant possibility of local interference with the produce ‘tion or novenené: af Listed comoilties (not necessarily resulting in Long-term denisl) is considered to exist in the following easeat B+ CANMDA: dixon oro, load, lumber, PULHIOM, zine, be WXIO! antimony, caduium, copper, fluorspar, graphite, TEAD, manganoso, TEROURY, ica, petroleum, nines, &- OUBA: MOLASSES end sugar, chromite, niclol oxide, Yoter “Ghis nonorandum has not teen coordinated with the intelJigonse organizations of the Depaviments of State, Aray, Nevy, and the Air Foree. » 0. ocumment No. NQ CHANGE in Class. DECLASSIF: dss. CHANGED T0: TS § |G . DDA Memo, 4 Apr 7 Auth: _DDA.RES. 77/1763 : Date: By areal Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/05/23 : CIA-RDP78-01617A000900030001-8y ~ _,, Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/05/23 : CIA-RDP78-01617A000900030001-8 a VEIEZUELar PeaROLEUH, BOUIDOR: BAISA, cocoa beans. PERU ead, venadiun, BOLIVIA: ANTIMONY, lead, TIM, tungsten. CHILE: COPPER, CRWE IODINE, aodim nitrates, ixoa ore. BRAZILt BERYL, castor boans, coffee, onetime, iron ore, MANGANESE, QUARTZ CRYSTAL, Gival. ARGENTINA beef, hides, olins, TRUGUAY: greaso wool. SARDINIA: tale. TRAQ: patwolleun, TIDIA end RAST PAKISTAN: WANQAIESE, MICA, jute, toa. BUR, THAILAND, MALAYA: rubber, teak, tin. DOOWSIA: palm oil, pepper, quinine ond quinidine, potrolom, rubber, and tin. CHINA: antimony, duck feathers, hog brintles, tin, and Be S. With respect to other ligted commodities, no significant inter= ference is likely, although sporadic strikes and sabotage are probable. Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/05/23 : CIA-RDP78-01617A000900030001-8Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/05/23 : CIA-RDP78. 1617A000900030001-8 ENCLOSURE "A" GENGRAL CONSIDERATIONS 1. Tho USSR, through the apparatus of international Coumuniam, has made and is malcing extensive preparations to interfere with the production and movement of strategic. materials required by tho US. Tn the oveat of war, the USSR must bo expocted.te exert to the fulJ, its capabilities in thie regard. 2. Absolute daniel of newly produced strategic materials re= quires Communist seizure of control over the means of production or eport, as has occurred in Chins, Temporary or partial interference, of greater or loss duration and magnitude, can be accoupliched if public disorder, work stoppages, slondoms, or sabotage are instigated. 3. Communist capabilities in these respects very with local. ciroustanees not necessarily related to local Comunist strength or to the vulnerability of the industry concemed. It met be recognized that disorders, strikes, and even sabotego affecting the availability of strategic materials can occur for strictly local reasons without Communist instigation, and that a wartime demand for atrategic nateriais presents an inviting opportmity for exacting the redress Of local grievances, It is to be expected, however, that the USSR atid local Comunists will take every advantage of gach local disdatic~ factions to accauplich their om ulterior purpose, Because any systenatio and custained interference with US access to strategic materials normally presupposes at least covort Commmist direction or Anflvsncs, Commmiet party strength and labor influence have teen teken as the point of departure of country estimates in most caseso . ie Control of or dominant influence in organised labor is Comunism's principal weapon for the accoaplishnent of this missions Coumunist penetration of organized lebor has been significantly selective, with concentration on mining, fuel and power, electzical communications, overland transport, waterfront, and naritine workers? unionge In meny cases it will be found that the Commnists, lacking control of basic production, nevertheless-coatrol, availability through their control of esscniial fuel and poror, transportation, or part Bo — SS _soeclassified and Approved For Release 2013/05/23 : CIA-RDP78-01617A000900030001-8Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/05/23 : CIA-RDP78-01617A000900030001-8 Se In addition to Communist capabilities for the local instiga- tion of disorder, work stoppage, or sabotare, account must be ‘taken of the possibility of planned sabotage by trained Soviet agenta Ambroduced fron the outside on specific mission, This factor, although relatively difficult to estimate, is especially important with respect to highly remmerative targets such as Veneguelan oil, Whatover the security precautions in each case, the possibility of a succassful and severely damaging attack can never be entirely excluded. Ge The following estimates do not take into account the poseibility of Soviet resort to clandestine biological warfare as a form of sabatogs, on the supposition that Soviet capabilities in thie regard will. be covered elsewhere. This form of attack, 1f feasible, could obviously have a severe effect on the production and export of strategic materiale, directly in the case of animal and vegetable products, and indirectly in toms of its effect on human resources. —_ FS _séoeciassified and Approved For Release 2013/05/23 - CIA-RDP78-016174000900030001-8_ Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/05/23 : CIA-RDP78 1617A000900030001-8 BICLOSURE "3" . caNADA 1, Progusts designated, The Canadian products Listed are ALLEL, “ASBESTOS,” Sate ; corundum, hides, ilmenite, iron ore; lead, lumber, nica, NENSPRINT, NICKEL, petroleum, PLATINUM HEEALS, PULPAOOD, URANTUE, WOODPULP, and gine. 2o- Conmnist si and inflvenés, The Communist Party, out= lawed in 939, now Sas ay the Tao ae OF Progressive Farty, with an ostinated 23,000 members. Ite influence is extended through labor unions, foreign language groups, and front organizations. It has had little political success, however, and was weaned by the espionags trials: .1 of 196. In the dime 19L9 general elections, for example, it received only 32,633 votes in contrast to 111,892 in 19h5, a trend further sube stantiated in municipal elections. Although Communist infivence in organized labor has diminished, it is still important, particularly in miners? and lusbarman's unions. 3. iron oe, Plant protection is helieved to be normal, but thd producing isbor union is Conmmisiedaminated, end there is a corresponding denger of serious work atoppace, if not of sabotage. Moreover, the ore is chipped via the Great Lakes, and ite movement might be oubject to some Anterrapticn by the remante of the Communist Canadian Scaxen's Unicn if the omergency arose during the sumer shipping season, (This danger would bo lessened if wartime controle have been put into effect before the reopening of traffic in the spring.) yo Lead and Zinco The producing union is Commmist~dominsted, and plant prOWCKSe"Ig Bini ttedly inadequate. In these circumstances, serious work stoppage and/or sabotage may be expected. So lumber and Pulpncode The dispersed and primitive character of tho indStey Tones Te FSlstively inmuns to sabotare, but interference ‘through work stoppages is a possibility. Tho chief producing inion“ ~ is no longer Commniet controlled, but is Communist infiltrated. (The effect of such stoppages would depend on tha season: normally cut wood is accumulated during the winter to be floated domatrean in the springs)’ 6. Other Products. Wo significant interfersnce is indicated, except insofar a3 deiial oF pulpwood might interfere with the production of newsprint and woodpulpo a3e aaa Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/05/23 : CIA-RDP78-01617A000900030001-8