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1.Infinite time
2. Constant EPS and DPS
3. 100% Payout/ Retention
4. Constant return and cost of capital
5. Internal Financing
P = D/k + {r*(E-D)/k}/k,
Where,
No External Financing
Constant r and k
It is very rare to find the internal rate of return and the cost of capital to
be constant. The business risks will definitely change with more
investments which are not reflected in this assumption.
Growth firms are characterized by an internal rate of return > cost of the
capital i.e. r > k. These firms will have surplus profitable opportunities to
invest. Because of this, the firms in growth phase can earn more return
for their shareholders in comparison to what the shareholders can earn
if they reinvested the dividends somewhere else. Hence, for growth firms,
the optimum payout ratio is 0%.
Normal Firm
Normal firms have an internal rate of return = cost of the capital i.e. r = k.
The firms in normal phase will make returns equal to that of a
shareholder. Hence, the dividend policy is of no relevance in such a
scenario. It will have no influence on the market price of the share. So,
there is no optimum payout ratio for firms in the normal phase. Any
payout is optimum.
Declining Firm
Declining firms have an internal rate of return < cost of the capital i.e. r <
k. Declining firms make returns that are less than what shareholders can
make on their investments. So, it is illogical to retain the company’s
earnings. In fact, the best scenario to maximize the price of the share is to
distribute entire earnings to their shareholders. The optimum dividend
payout ratio, in such situations, is 100%.
MODILGILANI AND MILLER (MM) THESIS
WITH NUMRICAL EXPLAINATION
They have argued that the market price of a share is affected by the earnings
of the firm and is not influenced by the pattern of income distribution.
Therefore, the dividend policy is immaterial and is of no consequence to the
value of the firm. Modigliani – Miller theory is a major proponent of ‘Dividend
Irrelevance’ notion. According to this concept, investors do not pay any
importance to the dividend history of a company and thus, dividends are
irrelevant in calculating the valuation of a company. This theory is in direct
contrast to the ‘Dividend Relevance’ theory which deems dividends to be
important in the valuation of a company.
If the investor needs more money than the dividend he received, he can
always sell a part of his investments to make up for the difference. Likewise, if
an investor has no present cash requirement, he can always reinvest the
received dividend in the stock. Thus, the Modigliani – Miller theory firmly
states that the dividend policy of a company has no influence on
the investment decisions of the investors.
Assumptions of MM approach-
Where,
ke = cost of capital
For example,
CASE 1
CASE 2
ARBITRAGE PROCESS
Value of firm
nPo = 1/(1+ke) * [(n+m)P1 – I + E]
Let the firm has total profits of Rs.10,00,000 during year 1 and is planning to
make investment of Rs.20,00,000 in the end of year 1.
CASE 1 CASE 2
Total Earnings 10,00,000 10,00,000
Dividend Paid 5,00,000 -
Retained earnings 5,00,000 10,00,000
Fund requirement 20,00,000 20,00,000
Fresh capital to be issued 15,00,000 10,00,000
MP at the end of year 1 105 110
Number of shares to be 14285.71 9090.9
issued
Total number of shares 114285.71 109090.9
So, the value of the firm remains the same at Rs.1,00,00,000 whether the
dividend is paid or not. With the help of arbitrage process, as explained above,
it can be shown that the dividend policy is irrelevant for the valuation of the
firm.
CRITICISM
Modigliani – Miller theory on dividend policy suffers from the following
limitations:
Perfect capital markets do not exist. Taxes are present in the capital
markets.
According to this theory, there is no difference between internal
and external financing. However, if the flotation costs of new issues
are considered, it is false.
This theory believes that the shareholder’s wealth is not affected by
the dividends. However, there are transaction costs associated with
the selling of shares to make cash inflows. This makes the investors
prefer dividends.
The assumption of no uncertainty is unrealistic. The dividends are
relevant under the certain conditions as well.
MYRON GORDAN’S DIVIDEND THEORY
Gordon’s theory on dividend policy is one of the theories believing in
the ‘relevance of dividends’ concept. It is also called as ‘Bird-in-the-
hand’ theory that states that the current dividends are important in
determining the value of the firm. Gordon’s model is one of the most
popular mathematical models to calculate the market value of the
company using its dividend policy. Myron Gordon’s model explicitly
relates the market value of the company to its dividend policy. The
determinants of the market value of the share are the perpetual
stream of future dividends to be paid, the cost of capital and the
expected annual growth rate of the company.
1. No Debt
2. No External Financing
3. Constant IRR
4. Constant Cost of Capital
5. Perpetual Earnings
6.No Corporate Taxes
7. Constant Retention Ratio
8. K>g
Po = EPS(1-b)/k-br
Where,
EPS = Earnings per share
b = retention ratio
k = firm’s cost of capital
r = Firm’s Internal rate
GROWTH FIRM ( r > k) NORMAL FIRM ( r = k) DECLINING FIRM ( r < k)
r = 0.15 r = 0.10 r = 0.08
k = 0.10 EPS = Rs.10 k = 0.10 EPS = Rs.10 k = 0.10 EPS = Rs.10
Pay-out ratio P = 40% Pay-out ratio P = 40% Pay-out ratio P = 40%
Implications-
Gordon’s model believes that the dividend policy impacts the company in
various scenarios as follows:
Growth Firm
Normal Firm
A normal firm’s internal rate of return (r) = cost of the capital (k). So, it
does not make any difference if the company reinvested the dividends or
distributed to its shareholders. So, there is no optimum dividend payout
rati o for normal firms.
However, Gordon revised this theory later and stated that the dividend
policy of the firm impacts the market value even when r=k. Investors will
always prefer a share where more current dividends are paid.
Declining Firm
The internal rate of return (r) < cost of the capital (k) in the declining
firms. The shareholders are benefitted more if the dividends are
distributed rather than reinvested. So, the optimum dividend payout ratio
for declining firms is 100%.
No External Financing
D= Dividend
TD=Target Dividend
k = A constant
et = The error term
PORTFOLIO THEORY
Introduction
Assumptions
Step 1: Setting the portfolio opportunity set (or investment opportunity set)
Once the region of all feasible portfolios has been identified, the next task is to
find out those portfolios which are efficient. All feasible portfolios are not
efficient. An efficient portfolio is one:
The efficient frontier which we derive in step 2 shows all efficient portfolios
from which the investor will choose his optimal portfolio. But efficient frontier
alone cannot help an investor to select the optimal portfolio. The basic
criterion for the selection of optimal portfolio is that the satisfaction or utility
of the investor is maximized. For this we construct Indifference Curves for the
investors. An indifference curve shows all those combinations of risk and
return which generate same utility for an investor. Since all investors are risk
averse, the indifference curves of the investor will be upward sloping. It must
be noted
that a less risk averse investor will have rather flatter indifference curves while
a more risk averse investor will have steeper indifference curves. Furthermore,
indifference curves for a particular investor cannot intersect.
The last step is the selection of optimal portfolio and, for that, we superimpose
indifference curves of the investor on the efficient frontier. The indifference
curves show the utility that an investor
derives using different combinations of risk and returns. The higher the
indifference curve the greater is the utility. On the same indifference curve
utility is same. Efficient frontier shows all efficient portfolios from which the
investor has to choose his Best or Optimal Portfolio. Hence, selection of the
optimal or best portfolio must meet the following two conditions:
a. The portfolio is efficient, i.e., it must lie on efficient frontier, and
b. The utility of the investor is maximized, i.e., it should lie on the
highest possible indifference curve.
Capital Asset Pricing Model is a popular model used to predict expected return
on a security or portfolio. As per this model, an investor gets rewarded only for
bearing the systematic risk (or non-diversifiable risk) as the unsystematic risk
can be diversified away. CAPM is built on the premise that in market portfolio
there is no unsystematic risk because it is efficiently diversified portfolio.
Hence, Capital Market Line which shows the relationship between expected
return and total risk should in fact show a relationship between expected
return and systematic risk indicated by β factor. Therefore, it shows that there
is a positive and linear relationship between expected return and systematic
risk.
Assumptions of CAPM
As per CAPM,
Expected Return = Risk Free Rate + Market Risk Premium X Systematic Risk
ERi = Rf + (Rm-Rf)β
where,
1. Risk free rate of return: Risk free rate is rate of return on a security which
does not have any risk. Hence, risk free rate is not a reward for bearing any
risk. It is a compensation for time. It is therefore also termed as time value of
money.
2. Market risk premium or the market price for risk: This is the reward an
investor must get for bearing one unit of market risk or systematic risk.
3. Amount of systematic risk indicated by β: β measures the sensitivity of a
security’s returns to the returns of market portfolio. It must be noted that
securities differ in terms of their sensitivity to market portfolio. Some securities
are less sensitive while others are more sensitive. Hence, β of different
securities and portfolios are also different. The higher the β, the higher will be
the sensitivity of a security return to market portfolio and higher will be its
impact on security return.
Uses of CAPM
Criticism of CAPM
As per the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), an asset’s returns can be forecasted
with the linear relationship of an asset’s expected returns and the
macroeconomic factors that affect the asset’s risk. Unlike the Capital Asset
Pricing Model (CAPM), which only takes into account the single factor of the
risk level of the overall market, the APT model looks at several macroeconomic
factors. The theory was developed in 1976 by American economist, Stephen
Ross.
The theory assumes that market action is less than perfectly efficient, and
therefore occasionally results in assets being mispriced – either overvalued or
undervalued – for a brief period of time. However, market action should
eventually correct the situation, moving price back to its fair market value. To
an arbitrageur, temporarily mispriced securities represent a short-term
opportunity to profit.
The APT is a more flexible and complex alternative to the Capital Asset Pricing
Model (CAPM). The theory allows investors and analysts to customize their
research. However, it is more difficult to apply, as it takes a considerable
amount of time to determine all the various factors that may influence the
price of an asset.
RISK AND RETURN
Return
Risk