TEORIA DE LAS DECISIONES

Tarea 2-Resolución de problemas de modelos de decisión bajo riesgos

TUTOR:
Deyanira Perez Bravo

Entregado por:

Jesus David Galindo Pomarico

1004279639

212066_37

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA - UNAD

ESCUELA DE CIENCIAS BÁSICAS TECNOLOGÍA E INGENIERÍA
MARZO DE 2021
 Table 1. Decision process for the commercialization of the pro
Estados de la n
Demand
Decision alternative low-utility

Manufacture 721
Subcontract 735
Buy 679
Probabilities ∑= 1 0.43

Decision tree

Decision alternatives

Manufacture

Product (decision) Subcontract

Buy
The expected value without perfect information (VEsIP) indicates that the decision to make is to buy with a v

Answer a) The predicted Value of Perfect information is 24,08 Millions of dollars

b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U)

P(F/Low) = 0,4 P(D/Low) = 0,6

P(F/Low average) = 0,3 P(D/Low average) = 0,7
P(F/High) = 0,45 P(D/High) = 0,55
 FA

STATE OF NATURE(Ai) PREVIOUS PROBABILITIES P(Ai)

Sumatoria igual a 1
Low- Utility 0.43
P(F/L-average)= 0.37
P(F/high)= 0.2
1

UN

STATE OF NATURE(Ai) PREVIOUS PROBABILITIES P(Ai)

Sumatoria igual a 1
P(F/low)= 0.43
P(F/L-average)= 0.37
P(F/high)= 0.2
1

Decision alternatives

Manufacture
 Favorable
Subcontract
0.373

Buy

Producto

Manufacture

Unfavorable
Subcontract
0.627

Buy
 VEIM Predicted value of perfect information
VEIM Valor absoluto (VEcIM
VEIM 0
VEIM 795.4 _

c. What is the expected value of market research information?

ES CERO

d. What is the efficiency of the information?

Efficiency

E= VEM 0
VEP 24.08

NO IN-DEPTH STUDY IS NECESSARY, THE BEST CHOICE IS TO BUY

mmercialization of the product
Estados de la naturaleza
Demand
Demand low High - utility
average -
utility
822 678
718 756
919 817
0.37 0.2

Demand

0.43
721 310.03

0.37
822 304.14 749.77

0.2
678 135.6
0.43
735 316.05

0.37
718 265.66 732.91

0.2
756 151.2
0.43
679 291.97

0.37
919 340.03 795.4

0.2
 817 163.4

Probability

n to make is to buy with a value expected of 795,40 millions od dollars.

rs

able (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:

P(D/Low) = 0,6
/Low average) = 0,7
P(D/High) = 0,55
 FAVORABLE

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES P(F/Ai) Joint probabilities p(FnA) LATER PROBABILITIES P(A

Sumatoria igual a P(F) se aplica regla de Baye

0.4 0.172 0.46112600536193
0.3 0.111 0.297587131367292
0.45 0.09 0.241286863270777
P(F) 0.373 1

UNFAVORABLE

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES P(U/Ai) Joint probabilities p(UnA) LATER PROBABILITIES P(A

Sumatoria igual a P(F) se aplica regla de Baye

0.6 0.258 0.411483253588517
0.7 0.259 0.413078149920255
0.55 0.11 0.175438596491228
P(U) 0.627 1

low utility
0.461126005 721 332.47185

low average
0.297587131 822 244.616622

high-utility
0.241286863 678 163.592493
low utility
0.461126005 735 338.927614
low average
0.297587131 718 213.66756

high-utility
0.241286863 756 182.412868
low utility
0.461126005 679 313.104557

low average
0.297587131 919 273.482573

high-utility
0.241286863 817 197.131367

low utility
0.411483254 721 296.679426

low average
0.41307815 822 339.550239

high-utility
0.175438596 678 118.947368
low utility
0.411483254 735 302.440192

low average
0.41307815 718 296.590112

high-utility
0.175438596 756 132.631579
low utility
0.411483254 679 279.397129

low average
0.41307815 919 379.61882

high-utility
0.175438596 817 143.333333
t information
- VEsIM)

795.4

0%
VEsIP VEcIP
756 316.05
919 340.03
822 163.4

Expected payment

VEIP= VEsIP-VEcIp

24.08
LATER PROBABILITIES P(Ai/F

se aplica regla de Bayes

0.46112600536193
0.297587131367292
0.241286863270777
1

LATER PROBABILITIES P(Ai/U

se aplica regla de Bayes

0.411483253588517
0.413078149920255
0.175438596491228
1

740.680964401
 735.008042161

292.327
783.718497855

If the study is favorable we must buy

795.4
VEcIM
Expected value of the sample information
755.177033522

731.661881966

802.349282248 503.073

if the study is unfavorable we must buy

P

819.48
e information
 Table 2. Decision process for the commercialization of th
Decision alternative Demand
low-utility
Manufacture 514
Subcontract 515
Buy 533
Lease 540
Leasing 541
Probabilities Σ=1 0.31

Product (Decisión)
The expected value without perfect information (VEsIP) indicates that the decision to make is to

VEIP Predicted value of perfect information

VEIP= Valor absoluto (VEcIP -
VEIP= 3.21

Answer a) The predicted Value of Perfect information is 3,21 Millions of dollars

b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The r

FAVORABLE

STATE OF NATURE(Ai) PREVIOUS PROBABILITIES P(Ai)

Sumatoria igual a 1
P(F/bajo) 0.31
P(F/medio bajo) 0.29
P(F/alto medio) 0.24
P(F/alto) 0.16
1

UNFAVORABLE
 UNFAVORABLE

STATE OF NATURE(Ai) PREVIOUS PROBABILITIES P(Ai)

Sumatoria igual a 1
P(D/bajo) 0.31
P(D/medio bajo) 0.29
PD/alto medio) 0.24
P(D/alto) 0.16
1

FAVORABLE

0.3778
PRODUCTO

0.6222
 UNFAVORABLE

VEIM Predicted value of perfect information

VEIM Valor absoluto (VEcIM
VEIM 0
VEIM 560.06

c. What is the expected value of market research information?

IS ZERO
d. What is the efficiency of the information?

EFFICIENCY

E= VEM
VEP

NO IN-DEPTH STUDY IS NECESSARY, THE BEST CHO

process for the commercialization of the product
Low-average - utility demand High medium - utility High - demand utility
demand
537
572 558
565 518 530
512 519 538
562 579 567
526 512 513
0.29 0.24 0.16

0.31 514

0.29 572
Manufacture
0.24 537

0.16 558

0.31 515

0.29 565
Subcontract
0.24 518

0.16 530

0.31 533

0.29 512
Buy
0.24 519

0.16 538
 0.31 540

0.29 562
Lease
0.24 579

0.16 567

0.31 541

0.29 526
Leasing
0.24 512

0.16 513

Probability Demand

s that the decision to make is to Lease with a value expected of 560,06 millions od dollars.

mation
VEsIP)

ollars
ble (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:

FAVORABLE

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES P(F/Ai) Joint probabilities p(FnA) LATER PROBABILITIES P(Ai/F

Sumatoria igual a P(F) se aplica regla de Bayes

0.3 0.093 0.246161990471149
0.4 0.116 0.3070407623081
0.43 0.1032 0.273160402329275
0.41 0.0656 0.173636844891477
P(F) 0.3778 1

UNFAVORABLE
 UNFAVORABLE

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES P(D/Ai) Joint probabilities p(DnA) LATER PROBABILITIES P(Ai/D)

Sumatoria igual a P(F) se aplica regla de Bayes

0.7 0.217 0.348762455801993
0.6 0.174 0.279652844744455
0.57 0.1368 0.219864995178399
0.59 0.0944 0.151719704275153
P(D) 0.6222 1

0.24616199 514

0.307040762 572
Manufacture
0.273160402 537
0.173636845
558

0.24616199 515

0.307040762 565
Subcontract
0.273160402 518

0.173636845 530

0.24616199 533

0.307040762 512
Buy
0.273160402 519

0.173636845 538
 0.24616199 540

0.307040762 562
Lease
0.273160402 579

0.173636845 567

0.24616199 541

0.307040762 526
Leasing
0.273160402 512

0.173636845 513

Probability Demand

0.348762456 514

0.279652485 572
Manufacture
0.219864995 537
0.151719704
558

0.348762456 515

0.279652485 565
Subcontract
0.219864995 518

0.151719704 530

0.348762456 533
 0.279652485 512
Buy
0.219864995 519

0.151719704 538

0.348762456 540

0.279652485 562
Lease
0.219864995 579

0.151719704 567

0.348762456 541

0.279652485 526
Leasing
0.219864995 512

0.151719704 513

Probability Demand

edicted value of perfect information

(VEcIM - VEsIM)

_ 560.06
 0 0%
3.21

EPTH STUDY IS NECESSARY, THE BEST CHOICE IS LEASE

159.34

165.88
543.38
128.88

89.28

159.65

163.85
532.62
124.32

84.8

165.23 VEsIP

148.48
524.35
124.56 560.06

86.08
 167.40

162.98
560.06
138.96

90.72

167.71

152.54
525.21
122.88

82.08

P*D Sum

d dollars.
TER PROBABILITIES P(Ai/F

se aplica regla de Bayes

0.246161990471149
0.3070407623081
0.273160402329275
0.173636844891477
1
ER PROBABILITIES P(Ai/D)

se aplica regla de Bayes

0.348762455801993
0.279652844744455
0.219864995178399
0.151719704275153
1

514 126.53

572 175.627316
448.84
537 146.687136

558 0

515 126.773425

565 173.478031
533.776071
518 141.497088

530 92.0275279

533 131.20

512 157.20487
523.60
519 141.770249

538 93.4166226
 540 132.93 SI EL ESTUDIO ES FAVORABLE DEBEMOS LEASE

562 172.556908
562.10 212.36
579 158.159873

567 98.4520911

541 133.17

526 161.503441
523.61
512 139.858126

513 89.0757015

Demand P*D Sum

514 179.26

572 159.961221
457.29
537 118.067502

558 0

515 179.612665

565 158.003654
531.917829
518 113.890067

530 80.4114431

533 185.89
 512 143.182072
524.81
519 114.109932

538 81.6252008

540 188.33

562 157.164697
558.82 347.699874
579 127.301832

567 86.0250722 IF THE STUDY IS UNFAVORABLE, WE MUST L

541 188.68

526 147.097207
526.18
512 112.570877

513 77.8322082

Demand P*D Sum

 VEcIP
541 167.71
572 165.88
579 138.96 563.27

567 90.72
Largest value of each state of nature
EBEMOS LEASE

VEcIM

560.059874
NO IN-DEPTH STUDY IS NECESSARY, THE BEST CHOICE IS LEASE
IS UNFAVORABLE, WE MUST LEASE
 Table 3. Decision process for the commercialization of the
Decision alternative Demand Low-average - utility
low-utility demand
Manufacture 749 717
Subcontract 748 810
Buy 766 795
Lease 747 738
Leasing 727 814
Probabilities Σ=1 0.22 0.35

Manufacture

Subcontract

Product (Decisión) Buy

 Lease

Leasing

The expected value without perfect information (VEsIP) indicates that the decision to make is to

VEIP Predicted value of perfect information

VEIP= Valor absoluto (VEcIP - VEsIP)
VEIP= 19.66

Answer a) The predicted Value of Perfect information is 19,66 Millions of dollars

b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to report a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The r

FAVORABLE

STATE OF NATURE(Ai) PREVIOUS PROBABILITIES P(Ai) CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIE

Sumatoria igual a 1
P(F/bajo) 0.22 0.25
P(F/medio bajo) 0.35 0.5
P(F/alto medio) 0.17 0.3
P(F/alto) 0.26 0.35
1 P(F)
 UNFAVORABLE

STATE OF NATURE(Ai) PREVIOUS PROBABILITIES P(Ai) CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIE

Sumatoria igual a 1
P(D/bajo) 0.31 0.75
P(D/medio bajo) 0.29 0.5
PD/alto medio) 0.24 0.7
P(D/alto) 0.16 0.65
1 P(D)

FAVORABLE
0.372
 UNFAVORABLE

0.6495

VEIM Predicted value of p

VEIM Valor absoluto
VEIM 15.62
VEIM

c. What is the expected value of market research information?

Is 15,62
d. What is the efficiency of the information?

EFFICIENCY

E= VEM
VEP

THE EFFICIENCY OF THE STUDY IS 79%

ommercialization of the product
w-average - utility High medium - utility High - demand utility
demand demand
717 757 731
810 803 768
795 713 823
738 771 759
814 739 721
0.35 0.17 0.26

0.22 749 164.78

0.35 717 250.95

0.17 757 128.69

0.26 731 190.06

0.22 748 164.56

0.35 810 283.5

0.17 803 136.51

0.26 768 199.68

0.22 766 168.52

0.35 795 278.25

0.17 713 121.21

 0.26 823 213.98

0.22 747 164.34

0.35 738 258.3

0.17 771 131.07

0.26 759 197.34

0.22 727 159.94

0.35 814 284.9

0.17 739 125.63

0.26 721 187.46

Probability Demand P*D

cision to make is to Lease with a value expected of 784.25 millions od dollars.

 able (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are:

FAVORABLE

NDITIONAL PROBABILITIES P(F/Ai) Joint probabilities p(FnA) LATER PROBABILITIES P(Ai/F

Sumatoria igual a P(F) se aplica regla de Bayes

0.25 0.055 0.147849462365591
0.5 0.175 0.470430107526882
0.3 0.051 0.137096774193548
0.35 0.091 0.244623655913978
P(F) 0.372 1
 UNFAVORABLE

NDITIONAL PROBABILITIES P(D/Ai) Joint probabilities p(DnA) LATER PROBABILITIES P(Ai/D)

Sumatoria igual a P(F) se aplica regla de Bayes

0.75 0.2325 0.35796766743649
0.5 0.145 0.223248652809854
0.7 0.168 0.258660508083141
0.65 0.104 0.160123171670516
P(D) 0.6495 1

0.147849462 749

0.470430108 717
Manufacture
0.137096774 757

0.244623656 731

0.147849462 748

0.470430108 810
Subcontract
0.137096774 803

0.244623656 768

0.147849462 766

0.470430108 795
Buy
0.137096774 713
 0.244623656 823

0.147849462 747

0.470430108 738
Lease
0.137096774 771

0.244623656 759

0.147849462 727

0.470430108 814
Leasing
0.137096774 739

0.244623656 721

Probability Demand

0.357967667 749

0.223248653 717
Manufacture
0.258660508 757

0.160123172 731

0.357967667 748

0.223248653 810
Subcontract
0.258660508 803

0.160123172 768
 0.357967667 766

0.223248653 795
Buy
0.258660508 713

0.160123172 823

0.357967667 747

0.223248653 738
Lease
0.258660508 771

0.160123172 759

0.357967667 727

0.223248653 814
Leasing
0.258660508 739

0.160123172 721

Probability Demand

Predicted value of perfect information

(VEcIM - VEsIM)

ch information?
15.62 79%
19.66
734.48

784.25

VEsIP VEcIP
766
814
781.96 803
784.25
823
 Largest value of each stat

751.05

757.93

Sum
 110.74

337.298387
730.64
103.782258

178.819893

110.591398
IF THE STUDY IS FAVORABLE, IT MUST BE SUBCONTRACTED
381.048387
789.599462 293.731
110.08871

187.870968

113.25

373.991936
786.32
97.7499999
201.325269

110.44

347.17742
748.99
105.701613

185.669355

107.49

382.930108
768.10
101.314516

176.373656

VEclM

P*D Sum 799.867

EXPECTED VALUE OF SAMPLE INFORMATION

268.12

160.069284
623.99
195.806005

267.759815

180.831409
779.270208 506.136
207.704388
IF IT IS A STUDY, IT IS UNFAVORABLE, IT MUST BE CONTRACTED
122.974596
 274.20

177.482679
767.89
184.424942

131.781371

267.40

164.757506
753.12
199.427252

121.533488

260.24

181.724404
748.57
191.150115

115.448807

P*D Sum
VEcIP
168.52
284.9
136.51 803.91

213.98
Largest value of each state of nature
SUBCONTRACTED
UE OF SAMPLE INFORMATION
Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research: Theory and Applications. (pp. 347-378), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd,
v. Sixth edition.
Aven, T. (2008). Risk Analysis : The Risk Analysis Process: Chichester, UK: john wiley & sons editorial (pp. 69-82).
xmi Publications Pvt Ltd,

orial (pp. 69-82).