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  • The MENA Region in 2021: The Road Ahead

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    ISPI
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    Even in the MENA region, 2020 can be deemed as having been the year of chaos. Will 2021 be the year of clarity? Or does turmoil still lay ahead? And if so, can we peep into the future to see what we may change today? These and many other points of reflection for the region’s future were explored during the Rome MED Regional Meeting “The road ahead: what is in store for the MENA region in 2021 and beyond?”, held on March 31st. Through an extensive foresight exercise, involving 25 experts of both

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    Even in the MENA region, 2020 can be deemed as having been the year of chaos. Will 2021 be the year of clarity? Or does turmoil still lay ahead? And if so, can we peep into the future to see what we may change today? These and many other points of reflection for the region’s future were explored during the Rome MED Regional Meeting “The road ahead: what is in store for the MENA region in 2021 and beyond?”, held on March 31st. Through an extensive foresight exercise, involving 25 experts of both

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    2K views12 pages

    The MENA Region in 2021: The Road Ahead

    Uploaded by

    ISPI
    Even in the MENA region, 2020 can be deemed as having been the year of chaos. Will 2021 be the year of clarity? Or does turmoil still lay ahead? And if so, can we peep into the future to see what we may change today? These and many other points of reflection for the region’s future were explored during the Rome MED Regional Meeting “The road ahead: what is in store for the MENA region in 2021 and beyond?”, held on March 31st. Through an extensive foresight exercise, involving 25 experts of both

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 12

    Rome MED 2021

    Regional Meeting
    VIEW THE SURVEY RESULTS

    Foresight Survey
    What is in store for the MENA region in 2021 and Beyond?
    Security

    Which will be
    the biggest
    threat to the
    region? 1 Social unrest

    Intraregional rivalry

    Demographic pressures

    Covid-19 Aftershocks

    Climate
    change
    Security

    Which
    conflicts are
    more likely to
    be resolved in Yemen
    2021? 1
    Libya

    Syria

    Israel-Palestinian
    Authority
    Security

    Which
    bilateral
    rivalry will
    play a major 1 Saudi Arabia vs Iran
    role in 2021?
    Turkey vs UAE

    Turkey vs Iran

    Algeria vs Morocco

    Israel vs
    Palestinian
    Authority
    Security

    Which 1 Lebanon
    countries
    Iraq
    could
    experience Algeria
    renewed
    social Syria
    turmoil in the
    Egypt
    future?
    Iran

    Tunisia

    Turkey

    Bahrain
    Security

    What will
    influence the 1 Iran's Nuclear Proliferation &
    revival of the JCPOA
    Biden Foreign
    Policy? Counterterrorism

    Turkey

    Abraham Accords

    Yemen

    Libya
    Security

    Will the US
    and Iran Will the US & Iran reach an agreement?
    reach an No 53%
    agreement Yes 47%
    with regards
    to Iran’s
    nuclear
    program in If yes, which will it be?
    2021? A return to the JCPOA 75%
    A new, more comprehensive, agreement including 25%
    also regional issues and Iran’s ballistic missiles
    program
    Security

    Which States
    will influence
    the region
    most in 2021? External Actors: Regional Actors:

    1 United States 1 Iran

    Russia Turkey

    Saudi
    China
    Arabia
    Prosperity

    Which factors
    will hinder
    Hindering Factors: Facilitating Factors:
    and which
    will facilitate
    a post- 1 Ongoing conflicts 1 Governance reform
    pandemic Public & private
    recovery ? Vaccine availability
    investments

    Renewed Energy
    social diversificatio
    upheaval n
    Investment
    Climate
    s in
    threats
    education
    Migration

    Which factors
    will influence
    migration in
    2021?
    1 Geopolitical instability & conflict

    Economic distress

    Covid-19
    Aftershocks
    Migration

    WHO WILL MAKE UP MIGRATION


    Which social FLOWS IN THE FUTURE?
    Women
    categories and girls
    will make-up 0%
    migration 16%
    All
    flows in the
    future?

    26% 53%
    Vulnerable Youth
    classes

    5%

    Minorities
    Civil Society

    Civil society’s major challenges


    Which major
    challenges 1 Economic inequality
    will affect
    Unemployment
    civil society?
    Conflicts

    Which non- Most influential non-state actors


    state actors
    will be the 1 Civil Society & Social Movements
    most
    Radical & violent groups
    influential?
    Religious
    groups

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