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Penggunaan Metode Linear Regression Untuk Prediksi Penjualan Smartphone
Penggunaan Metode Linear Regression Untuk Prediksi Penjualan Smartphone
ABSTRACT
Planning and analyzing market needs precisely and efficiently if managed optimally is
needed to achieve company success. In practice, existing transaction data used as a reference
in planning and analyzing market needs. This company needs a tool to predict future sales. This
information is needed because a good sales prediction will help understand what items must be
distributed according to market needs so that companies can reduce uncertainty in decision
making. The purpose of this study is to create an information system can do smartphone sales
forecasting at 82 Cell Mayang with the Linear Regression method. The sales forecasting system
is using the Linear Regression method, The goal to create a sales forecasting system by
determining the sales volume with a certain period by looking at the cost of advertising and the
number of sales. The research method used includes observation, interviews and literature
studies. Designing using DAD includes entity relation diagrams, context diagrams, the hierarchy
of input process output and data flow diagrams. The programming language used is Visual
Basic.Net and the sql server 2008 database. Features in the sales forecasting application include
processing data items, customer data, incoming product data, sales data, and forecasting data.
The test results show the MAPE value is 0.032 and the MSE value is 5.16. From this value, it can
be said that the prediction of smartphone sales with the Linear Regression method on 82 Cell
Mayang is categorized as very good. Whereas for the blackbox testing that has been carried out,
it shows that the smartphone sales forecasting system in 82 Cell Mayang, Sukoharjo has been
going well.
Keywords: forecasting, sales prediction, incoming product data, linear regression, visual basic
dibuat berbasis website dengan Bahasa alamat Pelanggan menjual Barang netto
No
order id tgl
tgl
prediksi persediaan untuk triwulan selanjutnya ramal Id
pegawai
perubahan pola, dan faktor gangguan yang Laporan data pelanggan Laporan data barang
Administrasi Bagian Gudang
disebabkan oleh pengaruh acak Laporan penjualan
Laporan peramalan
Laporan stock
Laporan barang masuk
Variabel dalam penelitian ini terdiri dari
Gambar 2. Context Diagram
variabel independen (X) dan variabel
dependen (Y). Variabel X yang digunakan
3. HIPO, Diagram ini menggambarkan tentang
adalah biaya iklan (x1) dan jumlah sales (x2),
program secara terstruktur, yang berfungsi
dan variabel Y adalah volume penjualan(y).
untuk memelihara program secara
Desain sistem yang dibuat meliputi entity
memperjelas batasan program.
relation diagram, context diagram, hierarchy
input process output, data flow diagram dan
memakai pemodelan Entity Relationship
Diagram (ERD).
Sistem dibangun menggunakan bahasa
pemrograman Visual Basic.Net dan database
SQL Server. Pengujian menggunakan black
box dan uji validitas data.
3
Jurnal TIKomSiN, Vol. 6, No. 2, Oktober 2018 ISSN Cetak : 2338-4018
ISSN Online : 2620-7532
2 2
Sistem TOP LEVEL
n y x1 x2 x1² x2² y y.x
peramalan
penjualan
13 62 1 1 1 1 3844 1
LEVEL 0
14 74 1 2 1 4 5476 2
1. 2. 3.
15 66 1 2 1 4 4356 2
Master Transaksi Laporan
16 78 2 4 4 16 6084 8
LEVEL 1
17 66 1 2 1 4 4356 2
1.1 1.2 1.3 2.1 2.2 2.3
18 72 2 4 4 16 5184 8
Pegawai Barang Pelanggan Barang Masuk Penjualan Peramalan
19 76 2 4 4 16 5776 8
20 84 2 4 4 16 7056 8
3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 21 64 1 2 1 4 4096 2
Laporan
data barang
Laporan
data stock
Laporan
pelanggan
Laporan
barang masuk
Laporan
Penjualan
Laporan
Peramalan 22 64 1 2 1 4 4096 2
23 76 2 4 4 16 5776 8
Gambar 3. HIPO
24 72 1 2 1 4 5184 2
25 60 2 4 4 16 3600 8
4. Diagram Arus Data (DAD), sebagai media
26 72 2 4 4 16 5184 8
untuk menjelaskan semua alur data beserta 27 64 2 4 4 16 4096 8
proses-proses yang terdapat di dalam 28 76 1 2 1 4 5776 2
sistem dapat dilihat pada Gambar 3. 29 64 1 2 1 4 4096 2
Pegawai
1.1
Pegawai
Pegawai D1 pegawai
3.1
Laporan
30 70 1 2 1 4 4900 2
data barang
Barang Laporan data barang 31 74 1 2 1 4 5476 2
1.2
32 82 2 4 4 16 6724 8
3.2
Barang Barang D2 barang
Barang
Barang
Laporan stock
Laporan stock
33 62 2 4 4 16 3844 8
34 62 2 4 4 16 3844 8
Pelang-
1.3
3.3
Laporan
35 74 2 4 4 16 5476 8
Pelanggan Pelanggan D3 pelanggan Pelanggan Pimpinan
gan Laporan data data pelanggan
Pelanggan
pelanggan
36 70 1 2 1 4 4900 2
Jml 2490 51 101 81 321 173844 161
3.4
2.1
Bagian
Barang masuk Barang masuk D4 t_bm Barang masuk Laporan barang masuk
Gudang Laporan barang
Barang masuk
Barang masuk Barang masuk masuk
D5 t_bmdet
∑x12 = ∑x12 -
2.3 3.6 n
Peramalan Peramalan D8 Ramal Peramalan
2601
= 8.75
Laporan peramalan
Laporan
= 81 -
Peramalan
peramalan