Promedio Promedio móvil Suavización Modelo

Año Mes Demanda

móvil (3) ponderado exponencial de Holt
2017 OCT 9,797.00
2017 NOV 11,134.00
2017 DIC 10,687.00
2018 ENE 9,724.00 10,540.00 10,644.00 10,000.00 9,068.00
2018 FEB 8,786.00 10,515.00 10,295.00 9,899.00 9,293.00
2018 MAR 9,254.00 9,733.00 9,448.00 9,491.00 9,422.00
2018 ABR 10,691.00 9,255.00 9,208.00 9,405.00 9,578.00
2018 MAY 9,256.00 9,577.00 9,879.00 9,876.00 9,841.00
2018 JUN 8,700.00 9,734.00 9,687.00 9,649.00 9,966.00
2018 JUL 10,192.00 9,549.00 9,265.00 9,301.00 10,031.00
2018 AGO 10,751.00 9,383.00 9,558.00 9,628.00 10,212.00
2018 SET 9,724.00 9,881.00 10,174.00 10,040.00 10,424.00
2018 OCT 10,193.00 10,223.00 10,126.00 9,924.00 10,535.00
2018 NOV 11,599.00 10,223.00 10,164.00 10,023.00 10,673.00
2018 DIC 11,130.00 10,506.00 10,803.00 10,601.00 10,916.00
120,000.00 119,119.00 119,251.00 117,837.00 119,959.00

MSE 976,114.16 948,129.21 775,428.29 477,267.59

MAD 834.36 842.84 765.54 598.14
MAPE(%) 8.37 8.45 7.59 6.06
 14,000.00
Modelo
de Winter

8,967.00
9,315.00 10,000.00
10,154.00
9,880.00
9,974.00
8,668.00
9,439.00
10,924.00 6,000.00
9,998.00
9,223.00
11,349.00
12,727.00
120,618.00
2,000.00
ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO
588,566.48
647.02
6.42
14,000.00

ENE
10,000.00
FEB
MAR
ABR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AGO
6,000.00
SET
OCT
NOV
DIC

2,000.00
ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV

✘ Demanda 2018 Promedio m vil ✘ M vil ponderado Suav. exponencial ✘ Modelo de Holt Modelo deWinter
 1 0 1 0 1 0
9,724.00 10,644.00 9,068.00
8,786.00 10,295.00 9,293.00
9,254.00 9,448.00 9,422.00
10,691.00 9,208.00 9,578.00
9,256.00 9,879.00 9,841.00
8,700.00 9,687.00 9,966.00
10,192.00 9,265.00 10,031.00
10,751.00 9,558.00 10,212.00
9,724.00 10,174.00 10,424.00
10,193.00 10,126.00 10,535.00
11,599.00 10,164.00 10,673.00
11,130.00 10,803.00 10,916.00
 ERROR DE PRONÓSTICO PROMEDIO MÓVIL PONDERADO

ABS Cálculo para

Año Mes Demanda Móvil (3) Ft-Dt (Ft-Dt) * (Ft-Dt)
(Ft-Dt) MAPE
2017 OCT 9,797.00
2017 NOV 11,134.00
2017 DIC 10,687.00
2018 ENE 9,724.00 10,539.33 815.33 815.33 664,768.44 8.38
2018 FEB 8,786.00 10,515.00 1,729.00 1,729.00 2,989,441.00 19.68
2018 MAR 9,254.00 9,732.33 478.33 478.33 228,802.78 5.17
2018 ABR 10,691.00 9,254.67 -1,436.33 1,436.33 2,063,053.44 13.43
2018 MAY 9,256.00 9,577.00 321.00 321.00 103,041.00 3.47
2018 JUN 8,700.00 9,733.67 1,033.67 1,033.67 1,068,466.78 11.88
2018 JUL 10,192.00 9,549.00 -643.00 643.00 413,449.00 6.31
2018 AGO 10,751.00 9,382.67 -1,368.33 1,368.33 1,872,336.11 12.73
2018 SET 9,724.00 9,881.00 157.00 157.00 24,649.00 1.61
2018 OCT 10,193.00 10,222.33 29.33 29.33 860.44 0.29
2018 NOV 11,599.00 10,222.67 -1,376.33 1,376.33 1,894,293.44 11.87
2018 DIC 11,130.00 10,505.33 -624.67 624.67 390,208.44 5.61
TOTAL 10,012.33 11,713,369.89 100.43
 Errores
MSE 976,114.16
MAD 834.36
MAPE (%) 8.37
 ERROR DE PRONÓSTICO PROMEDIO MÓVIL PONDERADO

Móvil ABS Cálculo para

Año Mes Demanda Ft-Dt (Ft-Dt) * (Ft-Dt)
ponderado (Ft-Dt) MAPE
2017 OCT 9,797.00
2017 NOV 11,134.00
2017 DIC 10,687.00
2018 ENE 9,724.00 10,643.10 919.10 919.10 844,744.81 9.45
2018 FEB 8,786.00 10,294.90 1,508.90 1,508.90 2,276,779.21 17.17
2018 MAR 9,254.00 9,447.60 193.60 193.60 37,480.96 2.09
2018 ABR 10,691.00 9,207.60 -1,483.40 1,483.40 2,200,475.56 13.88
2018 MAY 9,256.00 9,878.90 622.90 622.90 388,004.41 6.73
2018 JUN 8,700.00 9,686.10 986.10 986.10 972,393.21 11.33
2018 JUL 10,192.00 9,265.00 -927.00 927.00 859,329.00 9.10
2018 AGO 10,751.00 9,557.20 -1,193.80 1,193.80 1,425,158.44 11.10
2018 SET 9,724.00 10,173.10 449.10 449.10 201,690.81 4.62 MSE: Error m
2018 OCT 10,193.00 10,125.70 -67.30 67.30 4,529.29 0.66 MAD: Desviac
2018 NOV 11,599.00 10,163.90 -1,435.10 1,435.10 2,059,512.01 12.37 MAPE: Error p
2018 DIC 11,130.00 10,802.20 -327.80 327.80 107,452.84 2.95
TOTAL 10,114.10 11,377,550.55 101.45
 𝛼+𝛽+𝛾=1
afla= 0.50 0<𝛼<1
beta=
gamma=
0.30
0.20
0<𝛽<1
1.00 0<𝛾< 1
Errores
MSE 948,129.21
MAD 842.84
MAPE (%) 8.45

MSE: Error medio cuadrático

MAD: Desviación media absoluta
MAPE: Error porcentual medio
 ERROR DE PRONOSTICO SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL

Suavización ABS Cálculo para

Año Mes Demanda Ft-Dt (Ft-Dt) * (Ft-Dt)
exponencial (Ft-Dt) MAPE
2018 ENE 9,724.00 10,000.00 276.00 276.00 76,176.00 2.84
2018 FEB 8,786.00 9,898.84 1,112.84 1,112.84 1,238,412.52 12.67
2018 MAR 9,254.00 9,490.96 236.96 236.96 56,149.68 2.56
2018 ABR 10,691.00 9,404.11 -1,286.89 1,286.89 1,656,090.01 12.04
2018 MAY 9,256.00 9,875.78 619.78 619.78 384,130.79 6.70
2018 JUN 8,700.00 9,648.62 948.62 948.62 899,877.29 10.90
2018 JUL 10,192.00 9,300.93 -891.07 891.07 794,007.98 8.74
2018 AGO 10,751.00 9,627.53 -1,123.47 1,123.47 1,262,193.32 10.45
2018 SET 9,724.00 10,039.30 315.30 315.30 99,416.87 3.24
2018 OCT 10,193.00 9,923.74 -269.26 269.26 72,501.85 2.64
2018 NOV 11,599.00 10,022.43 -1,576.57 1,576.57 2,485,576.98 13.59
2018 DIC 11,130.00 10,600.28 -529.72 529.72 280,606.20 4.76
TOTAL 9,186.50 9,305,139.49 91.13
 Alfa= 0.3665222943 0<𝛼<1
Errores
MSE 775,428.29
MAD 765.54
MAPE (%) 7.59

MSE: Error medio cuadrático

MAD: Desviación media absoluta
MAPE: Error porcentual medio
 ERROR DE PRONOSTICO MÉTODO DE HOLT

Método ABS
Año Nro Mes Demanda L T Ft-Dt (Ft-Dt) * (Ft-Dt)
Holt (Ft-Dt)
8898 170
2018 1 ENE 9,724.00 9119.88 172.20 9,067.35 -656.65 656.65 431,194.27
2018 2 FEB 8,786.00 9251.59 170.18 9,292.08 506.08 506.08 256,115.45
2018 3 MAR 9,254.00 9408.35 169.50 9,421.77 167.77 167.77 28,146.09
2018 4 ABR 10,691.00 9666.90 173.96 9,577.85 -1,113.15 1,113.15 1,239,100.32
2018 5 MAY 9,256.00 9794.07 171.62 9,840.86 584.86 584.86 342,061.60
2018 6 JUN 8,700.00 9864.43 166.56 9,965.69 1,265.69 1,265.69 1,601,969.44
2018 7 JUL 10,192.00 10043.87 167.20 10,030.99 -161.01 161.01 25,924.47
2018 8 AGO 10,751.00 10254.26 169.36 10,211.07 -539.93 539.93 291,525.29
2018 9 SET 9,724.00 10367.65 166.56 10,423.62 699.62 699.62 489,471.59
2018 10 OCT 10,193.00 10506.92 165.20 10,534.21 341.21 341.21 116,426.31
2018 11 NOV 11,599.00 10746.26 168.90 10,672.11 -926.89 926.89 859,122.41
2018 12 DIC 11,130.00 10932.35 169.76 10,915.17 -214.83 214.83 46,153.84
TOTAL 7,177.70 5,727,211.08
Cálculo para
MAPE
Alfa Beta Errores
6.75 0.08 0.05 MSE 477,267.59
5.76 MAD 598.14
1.81 MAPE (%) 6.06
10.41
6.32 Demanda Linear (Demanda)

14.55 14,000.00

1.58 12,000.00
5.02 10,000.00 f(x) = 169.573426573427 x + 8897.77272727273
7.19 8,000.00
3.35 6,000.00
7.99 4,000.00
1.93 2,000.00
72.67 0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 ERROR DE PRONOSTICO MÉTODO DE WINTER

Método
Año Nro Mes Demanda D.d Dt St1 Nivel Tendencia St2
de Winter
8866 158
2018 1 ENE 9,724.00 9,024.46 1.08 9482.02 432.99 0.99 8,966.31
2018 2 FEB 8,786.00 9,182.91 0.96 9577.32 230.38 0.94 9,314.74
2018 3 MAR 9,254.00 9,555.25 9,341.36 0.99 9286.51 -82.34 1.04 10,153.26
2018 4 ABR 10,691.00 9,486.00 9,499.82 1.13 9658.03 189.98 1.07 9,879.09
2018 5 MAY 9,256.00 9,592.50 9,658.27 0.96 9422.97 -65.04 1.01 9,973.42
2018 6 JUN 8,700.00 9,717.25 9,816.73 0.89 9379.05 -52.37 0.93 8,667.40
2018 7 JUL 10,192.00 9,783.25 9,975.18 1.02 9773.40 215.66 1.01 9,438.54
2018 8 AGO 10,751.00 10,028.38 10,133.63 1.06 9894.64 159.01 1.09 10,923.07
2018 9 SET 9,724.00 10,390.88 10,292.09 0.94 9888.35 59.83 0.99 9,997.98
2018 10 OCT 10,193.00 10,614.13 10,450.54 0.98 10576.38 436.75 0.93 9,222.39
2018 11 NOV 11,599.00 10,609.00 1.09 11158.70 524.09 1.03 11,348.98
2018 12 DIC 11,130.00 10,767.45 1.03 10803.49 -3.49 1.09 12,726.41

3
4
 ABS Cálculo
Ft-Dt (Ft-Dt) * (Ft-Dt)
(Ft-Dt) para MAPE

-757.69 757.69 574,098.58 7.79

528.74 528.74 279,571.06 6.02
899.26 899.26 808,670.05 9.72
-811.91 811.91 659,197.79 7.59 Alfa Beta Gamma
717.42 717.42 514,696.45 7.75 0.60 0.6 0.60
-32.60 32.60 1,063.05 0.37 p t
-753.46 753.46 567,708.06 7.39 4 3
172.07 172.07 29,609.56 1.60
273.98 273.98 75,064.11 2.82
-970.61 970.61 942,074.76 9.52
-250.02 250.02 62,511.51 2.16
1,596.41 1,596.41 2,548,532.79 14.34
TOTAL 7,764.19 7,062,797.76 77.08
 ERRORES
MSE 588,566.48
MAD 647.02
MAPE (%) 6.42