Sustainability 2018, 10, 1482 8 of 19

3.2. Economic Framework of Phosphorus Processing

After the establishment of the industry in the early 20th century, demand for phosphate fertilizers
gradually increased, particularly after World War I. After World War II, fertilizer consumption
Sustainability 2018, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 19
soared
from slightly above 10 million tons per year in 1961 to 37 million tons in 1987 in-line with the
overall Sustainability
resource
consumption usesoared
development shown
from slightly
2018, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW
in10
above Figure
million1.tons
Figure 5 shows
per year how
in 1961 demand
to 37 shifted
million tons from early
in 1987
8 of 19
in-line with
industrialized the overall resource
to developing usegradually
countries, development shown
from in Figure
the early 1. Figure
1970s 5 shows
and more how demand
pronounced after 1989
shifted from early
consumption soared industrialized
from slightlytoabove
developing
10 countries,
million tons gradually
per year in fromto
1961 the
37 early 1970s
million and
tons in more
1987
with a marked decline of consumption in developed countries and a continuous rise in developing
pronounced
in-line after 1989resource
with a use
marked decline shown
of consumption
in Figure 1.inFigure
developed countries and a
countries [14]with the
to around overall
50 million tons
continuous rise in developing countries2[14]
development
P O5 consumed today. 5 shows
to around 50 million tons P2O5 consumed today.
how demand
shifted from early industrialized to developing countries, gradually from the early 1970s and more
pronounced after 1989 with a marked decline of consumption in developed countries and a
continuous rise in developing countries [14] to around 50 million tons P2O5 consumed today.

Figure 5.Figure 5. Historic

Historic phosphate
phosphate fertilizer
fertilizer consumption in
consumption indeveloped
developed(grey) and and
(grey) developing countries
developing countries
(blue) [14].
(blue) [14].
Figure 5. Historic phosphate fertilizer consumption in developed (grey) and developing countries
In contrast to common sense economic expectations, market prices did not follow the strong
(blue) [14].
In growth
contrast path. They remained
to common sensestable and evenexpectations,
economic declined in realmarket
terms, asprices
showndid in Figure 6. The light
not follow the strong
grey
growth path. dotted and
In contrast solid
to common
They remained lines at the
senseand
stable bottom
economic of the graph
expectations,
even declined show
market
in real a marginally
pricesasdid
terms, increasing
not follow
shown phosphate
the
in Figure strong
6. The light
nominalpath.
growth and They
declining real rock
remained prices
stable and between 1960 and 2008, whenas ashown
price in
spike interrupted the
grey dotted and solid lines at the bottom ofeven declined
the graph in real
show terms,
a marginally Figure
increasing 6. The light
phosphate nominal
long-term
grey dottedpattern. Figure
and solid 6 shows
lines at the that fertilizer
bottom of theprices
graphessentially follow foodincreasing
show a marginally prices, alsophosphate
declining
and declining real rock
in real terms prices between 1960 with
and 2008, when a price spike interrupted the long-term
nominal and between
declining1960
real and
rock2012, albeit
prices between higher
1960 andvolatility compared
2008, when to spike
a price fertilizer prices.
interrupted the
pattern.long-term
Figure 6pattern.
shows Figure
that fertilizer prices essentially follow food prices, also declining
6 shows that fertilizer prices essentially follow food prices, also declining
in real terms
between in 1960 and between
real terms 2012, albeit
1960 with higher
and 2012, volatility
albeit compared
with higher volatility to fertilizer
compared prices. prices.
to fertilizer

Figure 6. Historic fertilizer prices, 1960–2012 [14].

Figure
Figure 6. 6. Historicfertilizer
Historic fertilizer prices,
prices,1960–2012 [14].[14].
1960–2012