Draft World
president, Donald Trump – giving the centre
Perspectives 2021
“Taken all in all, the crisis has been
burrowing away like the good old
mole it is.” (Marx to Engels, 22
February 1858)
The nature of perspectives
1. The present document, which should be read
in conjunction with the one we produced in
September 2020, will be somewhat different
to world perspectives documents that we
have issued in the past.
2. In previous periods, when events were
moving at a more leisurely pace, it was
possible to deal, at least in outline, with
many different countries. Now, however, the
pace of events has accelerated to the point
where in order to deal with everything, one
would need a whole book. The purpose of
perspectives is not to produce a catalogue of
revolutionary events, but to uncover the
fundamental underlying processes.
3. As Hegel explained in the Introduction to
the Philosophy of History: “It is in fact, the
wish for rational insight, not the ambition to
amass a mere heap of acquisitions, that
should be presupposed in every case as
possessing the mind of the learner in the
study of science.”
4. We are dealing here with general processes,
and can only look at a few countries which
serve to illustrate most clearly those
processes at this stage. Other countries will,
of course, be dealt with in separate articles.
Dramatic events
5. The year 2021 commenced with dramatic
events. The crisis of world capitalism is
making waves that are spreading from one
country and continent to another. On all
sides, there is the same picture of chaos,
economic dislocation and class polarisation.
6. The new year barely began before a far-right
mob stormed the US Capitol Building in
Washington at the urging of former US
of Western imperialism the appearance of a
failed state.
7. These events, coupled with the vastly larger
Black Lives Matter protests last summer,
show how deep the polarisation of US
society has become.
8. At the other end of the world, big protests in
India and Russia demonstrated the same
process: the masses’ resentment is growing,
and the ruling class is failing to govern in
the old ways.
A global crisis like no other
9. These world perspectives are unlike any
other we have dealt with in the past. They
are enormously complicated by the
pandemic that is hanging like a black cloud
over the entire world, subjecting millions to
misery, suffering and death.
10. The pandemic still rages out of control. At
the moment of writing, there have been more
than 100 million cases worldwide, and
almost three million deaths. These figures
are unprecedented outside a world war. And
they continue to rise inexorably.
11. This terrible scourge has its most devastating
effects in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
These are poor countries. But it also affects
some of the richest countries.
12. In the USA there are 30 million cases, and
the number of deaths has gone over the half
a million mark. And Britain has among the
highest number of deaths per head of the
population: over 4 million cases, and well
over 100,000 deaths.
13. The present crisis is therefore not like an
ordinary economic crisis. This is literally a
life-and-death situation for millions of
people. Many of these deaths could have
been avoided with proper measures early on.
Capitalism cannot solve the problem
14. Capitalism cannot solve the problem: it is
itself the problem.
15. This pandemic serves to expose the
intolerable divisions between rich and poor.
It has revealed the deep fault lines that
 divide society. The line between those who
are condemned to get sick and die, and those
who are not.
16. It has laid bare the wastefulness of
capitalism, its chaos and inefficiency, and is
preparing class struggle in every country in
the world.
17. Bourgeois politicians like to use military
analogies to describe the present situation.
They say we are at war with an invisible
enemy, this terrible virus. They conclude
that all classes and parties must unite behind
the existing government. But a yawning gulf
separates words from deeds.
18. The case for a planned economy and
international planning is unanswerable. The
crisis is worldwide. The virus does not
respect frontiers or border controls. The
situation demands an international response,
the pooling of all scientific knowledge and
the mobilisation of all the resources of the
planet to coordinate a genuine global plan of
action.
19. Instead, we have the unedifying spectacle of
the row between Britain and the EU over
scarce vaccines, while some of the poorest
countries are virtually denied access to any
vaccines at all.
20. But why is there a scarcity of vaccines? The
problems of vaccine production – to cite just
one example – are a reflection of the
contradiction between the urgent needs of
society and the mechanisms of the market
economy.
21. If we were really at war with the virus,
governments would mobilise all their
resources on this one task. From a purely
rational point of view, the best policy would
be to ramp up vaccine production as fast as
possible.
22. Capacity needs to be expanded, which can
only be done by setting up new factories.
But the big private vaccine manufacturers
have no interest in expanding production
massively because they would be financially
worse off if they did.
23. If they ramped up production capacity so
that the whole world was supplied within six
months, the newly built facilities would
stand empty immediately afterwards. Profits
would then be much lower compared with
current scenarios, where existing plants
produce at capacity for years to come.
24. Yet another obstacle to mass production of
the vaccine is the refusal of Big Pharma to
relinquish intellectual property rights over
“their own” vaccines (in most cases
developed with massive amounts of state
funding) so that other companies would be
able to produce them cheaply.
25. Pharmaceutical companies are making tens
of billions in profits, but problems with both
production and supply mean shortages
everywhere. In the meantime, millions of
lives are at risk.
Workers’ lives at risk
26. In their haste to get production (and
therefore profits) moving again, politicians
and capitalists resort to cutting corners.
Workers are sent back to crowded
workplaces without adequate protection.
This is equivalent to passing a death
sentence on many of these workers and their
families.
27. All the hopes of the bourgeois politicians
were based on the new vaccines. But the
rollout of vaccines has been bungled, and the
failure to control the spread of the virus –
which increases the risk of new vaccine-
resistant strains developing – has serious
implications, not just for human lives and
health, but also for the economy.
Economic crisis
28. The present economic crisis is the most
severe in 300 years, according to the Bank
of England. In 2020, the equivalent of 255
million jobs were lost worldwide, four times
more than in 2009.
29. The so-called emerging economies are being
dragged down with the rest. India, Brazil,
Russia, Turkey are all in crisis. South
Korea’s economy shrank last year for the
first time in 22 years. That was despite state
 subsidies worth about $283 billion. In South
Africa, unemployment reached 32.5 percent
and GDP contracted by 7.2 percent in 2020.
This is a greater contraction than in 1931
during the Great Depression, and this in
spite of spending the equivalent of 10
percent of GDP in a fiscal stimulus package.
30. The crisis is plunging millions of people
ever deeper into poverty. In January 2021,
the World Bank estimated that 90 million
people will be pushed into extreme poverty.
The Economist of 26 September 2020 wrote:
“The United Nations is even gloomier. It
defines people as poor if they do not have
access to things like clean water, electricity,
sufficient food and schools for their
children.
31. “Working with researchers from Oxford
University, it reckons the pandemic could
cast 490 million in 70 countries into poverty,
reversing almost a decade of gains.”
32. The United Nations’ World Food
Programme put it in these terms: “Across 79
countries with WFP operational presence
and where data are available, up to 270
million people are estimated to be acutely
food insecure or at high risk in 2021, an
unprecedented 82 percent increase from pre-
pandemic levels.”
33. This alone gives one an idea of the global
scale of the crisis.
34. The general instability around the world is
organically linked to growing poverty. It is
both cause and effect. It is the most
fundamental underlying cause of many of
the wars and civil wars taking place.
Ethiopia is just one example of this.
35. Ethiopia was presented as a model. In the
period of 2004 to 2014 its economy was
growing by 11 percent a year, and it was
seen as a country to invest in. Now it has
been thrown into turmoil with the outbreak
of fighting in Tigray province, where 3
million people are in need of emergency
food relief.
36. This is not an isolated case. The list of
countries affected by wars in the past period
is very long, and the catalogue of human
suffering appalling:
37. Afghanistan: two million deaths; Yemen:
100,000 deaths; the Mexican drug wars led
to 41,000 dead in Chiapas alone and over
150,000 killed in organised crime; the war
against the Kurds in Turkey, 45,000 deaths;
Somalia, 500,000 deaths; Iraq, at least one
million deaths; South Sudan around 400,000
deaths.
38. In Syria, the United Nations estimated the
number of deaths at 400,000, but this seems
too low. The real figure may never be
known but is sure to be 600,000 at least. In
the terrible civil wars in the Congo, probably
over four million people perished. But there
again, nobody knows the real figure. More
recently we had the conflict in Nagorno-
Karabakh.
39. And so the list goes on and on. Such things
are no longer considered suitable for the
front pages of newspapers. But they express
very clearly what Lenin once said:
Capitalism is horror without end. The
continued existence of capitalism threatens
to create the conditions of barbarism in one
country after another.
A crisis of the regime
40. From a Marxist point of view, the study of
economics is not an abstract academic
question. It has a profound effect on the
development of consciousness of all classes.
41. Everywhere we look now there is a crisis,
not just an economic crisis, but a crisis of the
regime. There are clear indications that the
crisis is so severe, so deep, that the ruling
class is losing control of the traditional
instruments they used in the past for running
society.
42. As a result, the ruling class finds itself
increasingly unable to control events. That is
particularly clear in the case of the USA. But
it also applies to many other countries. It is
sufficient to mention the names of Trump,
Boris Johnson and Bolsonaro to underline
the point.
USA
43. The USA now occupies a central place in
world perspectives. For a very long time,
revolution in the richest and most powerful
nation on earth seemed to be a very distant
prospect. But the USA was hit very hard by
the world economic crisis and now
everything has been turned upside down.
44. 40 million Americans filed for
unemployment during the pandemic, and as
always it is the poorest and most vulnerable,
especially the people of colour, who suffer
most. The scourge of unemployment falls
most heavily on the shoulders of the youth.
A quarter of under-25s have been thrown out
of work. Their future has suddenly been
taken away. The American dream has
become the American nightmare.
45. This dramatic change has forced many
people, old and young, to reconsider views
that they previously considered sacrosanct
and question the very nature of the society in
which they live. The rapid rise of Bernie
Sanders at one end of the political spectrum
and Donald Trump at the other set the red
light flashing for the ruling class. This kind
of thing was not supposed to happen!
46. Alarmed at the danger posed by this
situation, the ruling class was compelled to
take emergency measures. Let us remind
ourselves that, according to the official
dogma of bourgeois economists, the state
was not supposed to play any part in
economic life.
47. But faced with looming disaster, the ruling
class was forced to throw all the accepted
economic theories into the dustbin. The
same state which, according to free-market
theory, should play little or no role in
economic life, has now become the only
thing propping up the capitalist system.
48. In all countries, starting with the USA, the
so-called free market economy is really on a
life support system, like a coronavirus
patient. Most of the money handed out by
the state went straight into the pockets of the
rich. But the ruling class feared the political
consequences of yet another corporate
bailout. They therefore gave grants to every
resident and massively boosted
unemployment benefits. This cushioned the
impact of the crisis on the poorest layers. At
some point, these supports will be cut back
or withdrawn altogether.
49. We have the paradox of the most terrible
poverty in the richest country in the world
existing side by side with the most obscene
wealth and luxury. By October 2020, more
than one in five American households did
not reliably have enough money for food.
Food banks are proliferating.
Inequality and polarisation
50. Levels of inequality have broken all records.
The gulf between rich and poor has become
transformed into an unbridgeable abyss. In
2020 the wealth of the world’s billionaires
grew by $1.9 trillion. The Nasdaq 100 index
is 40 percent higher than before the
pandemic. Listed global equities, as of
February 2021 had risen in value by $24
trillion since March of 2020.
51. The average chief executive of an S&P 500
company earns 357 times as much as the
average non-supervisory worker. The ratio
was around 20 in the mid-1960s. It was still
28 at the end of Ronald Reagan’s term in
1989.
52. To quote just one example, Jeff Bezos now
makes more money per second than the
typical US worker makes in a week. This
takes America back to the times of the
capitalist robber barons that Theodore
Roosevelt denounced before the First World
War.
53. And this has an effect. All the demagogy
about the ‘national interest’, ‘we must unite
to fight the virus’, ‘we are all in the same
boat’, stands exposed as the vilest hypocrisy.
54. The masses are prepared to make sacrifices
under certain circumstances. In times of war,
people are prepared to unite to fight a
common enemy, that is true. They are
prepared, at least temporarily, to accept
lower living standards and also, to some
extent, restrictions on democratic rights.
55. But the gulf separating the haves from the
have-nots is deepening the social and
political polarisation and creating an
explosive mood in society. It undermines all
the efforts to create a sensation of national
unity and solidarity, which is the main line
of defence for the ruling class.
56. Federal Reserve statistics show that the
richest tenth in the US had a net worth of
$80.7 trillion at the end of 2020. That means
375 percent of GDP and far above historical
levels.
57. A five percent tax on that would yield $4
trillion, or one fifth of GDP. It would pay for
all the costs of the pandemic. But the rich
robber barons have no intention of sharing
their plunder. Most of them (including
Donald J Trump) show a marked
disinclination to paying any tax at all, let
alone five percent.
58. The only solution would be the
expropriation of the bankers and capitalists.
This idea will inevitably gain more and more
support, sweeping away the remaining
prejudices against socialism and
communism, even among those layers of
workers who have been bamboozled by the
demagogy of Trump.
59. This is already causing concern among the
serious strategists of capital. Mary Callaghan
Erdoes, head of assets and wealth
management for JP Morgan, drew the
inevitable conclusion: “You’re going to get a
very high risk of extremism coming out of
this. We have to find some way to adapt,
otherwise we’re in a very dangerous
situation.”
The assault on the Capitol
60. The attack on the Capitol on 6 January was a
graphic indication that what the USA now
faces is not a crisis of government, but a
crisis of the regime itself.
61. These events were neither a coup nor an
insurrection, but they glaringly exposed the
raw anger that exists in the depths of society
and also the emergence of deep rifts in the
state. At bottom, what they indicate is that
the polarisation in society has reached a
critical point. The institutions of bourgeois
democracy are being tested to destruction.
62. There is a burning hatred of the rich and
powerful, the bankers, Wall Street and the
Washington establishment in general (“the
swamp”). This hatred was skilfully
channelled by the right-wing demagogue,
Donald Trump.
63. Of course, Trump himself is only the most
cunning and voracious alligator in the
swamp. He is merely pursuing his own
interests. But in doing so, he seriously
damaged the interests of the ruling class as a
whole. He has played with fire and conjured
up forces that neither he, nor anyone else,
can control.
64. By word and deed, Trump was destroying
the legitimacy of bourgeois institutions and
creating huge instability. That is why the
ruling class and its political representatives
everywhere are horrified by his conduct.
The impeachment
65. The Democrats tried to impeach Trump,
accusing him of organising an insurrection.
But they predictably failed to get the Senate
to convict him, which would have barred
him from standing for public office in future.
66. Most Republican senators would have been
very glad to do this. They hate and fear this
political upstart. And they knew very well
who was behind the events of 6 January. The
Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell
delivered a damning verdict on the ex-
President, after voting to acquit him.
67. In reality, he and the other Republican
senators were terrified of the reaction of
Trump’s angry followers if they took that
fateful step. They decided that discretion is
the better part of valour and, holding their
noses, voted not guilty.
68. But if this was an attempted insurrection it
was a very poor one. Rather than an
insurrection, it resembled a large-scale riot.
The mob of angry Trump supporters burst
into the Capitol with the obvious connivance
of at least some of the guards. But, having
 easily gained possession of the Holy of
Holies of US bourgeois democracy, they had
not the faintest idea of what to do with it.
69. The disorganized and leaderless mob milled
around aimlessly, trashing anything they
took a dislike to and shouting bloodthirsty
threats against Democrat Nancy Pelosi,
Republican vice-President Mike Pence and
Mitch McConnell, who they accused of
betraying Trump. Meanwhile, the
insurrectionaries’ Commander-in-Chief had
conveniently disappeared.
70. If history repeats itself, first as a tragedy and
then as a farce, this was a farce of the purest
water. In the end, nobody was hanged or
sent to the guillotine. Tired out by so much
shouting, the “insurrectionists” went home
quietly or retired to the nearest bar to get
drunk and boast of their courageous exploits,
leaving behind nothing more threatening
than a pile of rubbish and a few bruised
egos.
71. Nevertheless, from the point of view of the
ruling class, it set a dangerous precedent for
the future. Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s
largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates,
had this to say: “We’re on the brink of a
terrible civil war. The US is at a tipping
point in which it could go from manageable
internal tension to revolution.” The storming
of the Capitol was a serious warning to the
ruling class. And this will undoubtedly have
consequences. Despite a barrage of media
hostility, 45 percent of registered
Republicans thought that it was justified.
72. But this has to be compared with the far
more significant fact that 54 percent of all
Americans thought that the burning down of
the Minneapolis police precinct was
justified. And 10 percent of the whole
population took part in the Black Lives
Matter protests – 10-20,000 times more than
those who stormed the Capitol. All this
shows the rapid growth of social and
political polarisation in the United States.
73. The spontaneous uprisings that swept the
USA from coast to coast following the
murder of George Floyd, and the
unparalleled events that preceded and
followed the presidential elections marked a
turning point in the entire situation.
Changes in consciousness
74. The stupid liberals and reformists naturally
understand nothing of what is happening.
They only see the surface of events, without
understanding the deeper currents that are
flowing strongly beneath the surface and
impelling the waves.
75. They constantly shout about fascism, by
which they mean anything they dislike or
fear. About the real nature of fascism, they
know absolutely nothing. That goes without
saying. But by constantly harping on the
“danger to democracy” (by which they mean
formal bourgeois democracy) they sow
confusion and prepare the ground for class
collaboration under the flag of “the lesser
evil”. Their support for Joe Biden in the
USA is a very clear example of this.
76. What we have to take account of is that
Trump’s base has a very heterogeneous and
contradictory character. It contains a
bourgeois wing, headed by Trump himself,
and a large number of reactionary petty
bourgeois, religious fanatics and openly
fascist elements.
77. But we must remember that Trump received
74 million votes in the last election and
many of these were working-class people
who previously voted for Obama but are
disillusioned with the Democrats. When they
are interviewed, they say: “Washington
doesn’t care about us! We’re the forgotten
people!”
78. There are violent swings to the left and also
to the right. Nature abhors a vacuum,
however, and because of the complete
bankruptcy of the reformists, including the
left reformists, this mood of anger and
frustration has been capitalised upon by
right-wing demagogues, so-called populists.
In the USA we have the phenomenon of
Trumpism. in Brazil we saw the rise of
Bolsonaro.
79. But the appeal of right-wing demagogues
soon evaporates when it comes into contact
with the realities of government, as the case
of Bolsonaro amply demonstrates. It is true
that Trump maintained the support of
millions, but he nevertheless has been
removed.
80. It was interesting to note that around the date
of the assault on the Capitol, Missouri
senator Josh Hawley said: “Republicans in
Washington are going to have a very hard
time processing this… But the future is
clear: we must be a working-class party, not
a Wall Street party.” (The Guardian)
81. Lenin said that history knows all kinds of
peculiar transformations. Marxists must be
capable of distinguishing what is progressive
from what is reactionary. We must
understand that with all these events, in
embryo, we have the outline of
revolutionary developments in the USA in
the future.
82. Of course, this reactionary Republican
senator has no intention of organizing a
genuine working-class party in the USA and
such a party will not emerge from a right-
wing split from the Republicans. But the
convulsions in the old two-party system are
undoubtedly the harbinger of something
entirely new: the emergence of a third party
that will challenge both Republicans and
Democrats.
83. Such a party will at first have an extremely
confused and heterogeneous character. But
the anti-capitalist element must sooner or
later predominate. That is where the real
threat to the system lies. When the masses
begin to intervene directly in politics, when
they decide that the time is come to take
their destiny into their own hands, that itself
is a symptom of impending revolutionary
developments.
84. The serious strategists of Capital understand
the dangerous implications in the present
turbulence far more than the impressionistic
and panicky petty bourgeois. On 30
December 2020 the Financial Times
published a very interesting article, signed
by the editorial board.
85. It painted a very different picture of the
process, and where it would go, and the
conclusions it drew from all this were very
alarming from a bourgeois point of view:
86. “Groups left behind by economic change are
increasingly concluding that those in charge
do not care about their predicament – or
worse, have rigged the economy for their
own benefit against those on the margins.
87. “Slowly but surely, that is putting capitalism
and democracy in tension with one another.
Since the global financial crisis, this sense of
betrayal has fuelled a political backlash
against globalisation and the institutions of
liberal democracy.
88. “Right-wing populism may thrive on this
backlash while leaving capitalist markets in
place.
89. “But as it cannot deliver on its promises to
the economically frustrated, it is just a
matter of time before the pitchforks come
out for capitalism itself, and for the wealth
of those who benefit from it.” [Our
emphasis]
90. This article shows a perfect understanding of
the dynamics of the class struggle. Even the
language is significant. Armed with
pitchforks suggests an analogy with the
French Revolution, or the Peasants’ Revolt
of 1381, where the peasants seized London.
91. The authors of these lines understand
perfectly well that a surge in the direction of
so-called right-wing populism can be just the
first stage before a revolutionary explosion.
Violent swings of public opinion to the right
can very easily be the preparation of even
more violent swings to the left by the
discontented masses who are seeking a way
out of the crisis.
92. This is a highly perceptive prediction of how
events will develop in the coming period.
And not only in the USA. This tremendous
volatility can be observed in many countries,
if not in every country. Beneath the surface,
 a mood of anger, bitterness and resentment
against the established order is developing.
Collapse of the Centre
93. The institutions of bourgeois democracy are
based on the assumption that the gulf
between rich and poor could be disguised
and contained within manageable limits. But
that is no longer the case.
94. The continued growth of class inequality has
created a level of social polarisation not seen
for decades. It is testing the traditional
mechanisms of bourgeois democracy to their
very limits, and beyond those limits.
95. The antagonism between rich and poor is
growing more intense every day. It provides
an irresistible impetus to the centrifugal
forces that are driving the classes apart. That
is precisely the reason for the collapse of the
so-called Centre.
96. This is causing growing alarm in the ruling
class, which feels power slipping out of its
hands. Establishment parties everywhere are
identified by the masses with austerity and
attacks on living standards.
97. There is an angry mood in society. This
mood expresses itself in the collapse of
confidence in the official institutions, the
parties, the governments, the political
leaders, bankers, rich people, the police, the
judiciary, existing laws, tradition, the
religion and morality of the existing system.
People no longer believe what they are told
by the newspapers and the TV. They
compare the huge difference between what
is said and what happens, and they realise
we are being told a pack of lies.
98. This was not always the case. In the past,
most people did not pay much attention to
politics. That goes for workers also.
Conversations in the workplaces were
usually about football, movies, television
programmes. Politics were rarely mentioned,
except maybe at election time.
99. Now, all that has changed. The masses are
beginning to take an interest in politics,
because they are beginning to realise this
directly affects their lives, and the lives of
their families. This in and of itself is an
expression of a move in the direction of
revolution.
100. In the past, if people bothered to vote in
elections at all, they would usually vote for
the same party that their parents and
grandparents had voted for. Now, however,
elections have become extremely
unpredictable. The mood of the electorate is
angry, mistrustful and volatile, swinging
violently from the left to the right, and from
right to left.
The perspectives for the Biden administration
101. The strategists of capital recognize the
colossal dangers in this polarization and are
striving desperately to rebuild the “Centre”.
But objectively there is no real basis for this.
In the person of Joe Biden, they are leaning
on a broken reed.
102. Wall Street now places its hopes on the
Biden administration and his vaccination
campaign. But Biden now presides over a
deep economic and political crisis in a
divided and declining nation.
103. He is being pushed by the establishment to
increase state intervention in the economy,
and he has lost no time in unveiling his plans
for a $1.9tn stimulus package for the US
economy. If we add the $900 billion package
previously agreed by Congress and the $3
trillion in relief passed at the start of the
pandemic, this all adds up to a mountain of
debt. The ruling class is desperately trying to
restore political stability.
104. Harvard University Professor Kenneth
Rogoff put it this way: “I’m very
sympathetic to what Biden’s doing… Yes,
there is some risk we have economic
instability down the road, but we have
political instability now.” All this is
preparing a huge crisis down the line.
105. Meanwhile millions of disgruntled citizens
do not even believe that Biden won the
election. Whatever he does will be wrong for
them. On the other hand, the exaggerated
hopes of his supporters will evaporate like a
drop of water on a hot stove, once the initial
 sense of relief at the departure of Trump has
dissipated. Massive disillusionment will
follow, preparing the way for new
upheavals, turbulence and instability.
Latin America
106. Latin America is one of the regions in the
world hardest hit by Covid-19, from a public
health point of view but also from the point
of view of the economic crisis.
107. The region’s GDP will have fallen by about
7.7 percent in 2020, the deepest collapse in
120 years. This came on the heels of a
decade of stagnation with 0.3 percent annual
average growth in 2014-2019. The region is
not expected to recover its pre-crisis GDP
until 2024. Extreme poverty levels have
gone back to what they were in 1990.
108. This was already producing social and
political turbulence before the pandemic
began. In Latin America, the uprisings in
2019 (Ecuador, Chile), which were part of a
worldwide trend (Algeria, Sudan, Iraq,
Lebanon, …), were temporarily cut across
by the onset of the pandemic that swept the
continent with devastating consequences.
109. Brazil has had one of the highest death tolls
in the world and Peru was also hard hit. In
Ecuador coffins were piling up in front of
the overcrowded morgues and bodies were
left unattended in the streets in some places.
110. However, in the second half of 2020, we saw
a return to mass insurrectionary movements.
In September 2020 there was an explosion
of outrage in Colombia against a police
murder, which saw the burning down of 40
police stations. In Perú the movement of the
masses brought down two governments. And
the protests in Guatemala led to the
parliament building being set on fire.
111. In Brazil, where the Lefts and sectarians
made a great noise about the alleged victory
of “fascism”, Bolsonaro’s support is
collapsing. The slogan originally launched
by our Brazilian comrades “Fora Bolsonaro”
(Bolsonaro out!), which was rejected as
utopian by the Lefts, has now achieved
general acceptance.
112. So weak is the “strong man” Bolsonaro that
he has been unable even to launch his own
party. Although he has been desperately
trying to do so, he has so far failed miserably
even to get sufficient signatures to register.
113. The problem is not the strength of Bolsonaro
but the weakness of the Left. The PT, which
once enjoyed the overwhelming support of
the workers, has lost massively in recent
elections. Here too, it is a question, not of
objective difficulties, but of the weakness of
the subjective factor.
114. Cuba, meanwhile, is faced with a major
economic crisis, unleashed by the pandemic
and compounded by Trump’s sanctions and
economic measures. The island’s economy
was forecast to slump by 11 percent in 2020.
115. This has pushed the leadership to implement
a series of capitalist market measures which
had been discussed for 10 years but never
fully implemented, including currency
unification, market relations amongst state
sector companies, closing down state sector
companies that are not “profitable”, lifting
of subsidies on the price of basic food
staples, etc.
116. These measures are already having an
impact in further increasing inequality and
have generated discontent. It is a turning
point in the process towards capitalist
restoration.
Europe
117. Real GDP fell 7 percent across EU member
states in 2020. This was the biggest decline
in Europe since World War Two. Official
figures show that 13.2 million are
unemployed, but discounting furlough
schemes, the true unemployment figure is
closer to 12.6 percent (about 20 million). An
additional 30 million are missing from the
official figures, described as ‘hidden
unemployment’.
118. The EU commission bungled the Covid-19
vaccine rollout, resulting in big shortages
across Europe. Denmark initially only got
40,000, when it was expecting 300,000. The
Netherlands initially received none.
119. The richer countries bought supplies of
vaccines for themselves. European ‘unity’
went out of the window. In the moment of
truth, it is every man for himself. The ideal
of European solidarity has been entirely
forgotten.
120. To make matters still worse, the escalation
of restrictive measures (lockdowns, etc.) to
tackle the coronavirus pandemic by 21
Eurozone nations have significantly slowed
economic activity, so that the bloc faces a
double-dip recession.
121. Whereas last spring, when the pandemic first
struck, the eurozone economy experienced a
sudden, deep shock, the new surge in
infections is dragging on for longer, causing
a slower but even more debilitating decline
in economic activity.
122. Travel, retail, hospitality, business
confidence and consumer spending have all
been hit in the first weeks of 2021. This
threatens to produce a delayed wave of
bankruptcies, unless the governments and
central banks continue to support measures
to prop up the economy.
123. As a result, economists anticipate that an
estimated contraction of output in the
eurozone of between 1.8 percent and 2.3
percent in the final three months of 2020
would be followed by another fall in the first
quarter of 2021 in many of the bloc’s major
economies, including Germany and Italy.
That could leave the eurozone in its second
recession, defined as two consecutive
quarters of negative growth, in less than two
years.
124. Following Brexit and Trump, who never
bothered to disguise his contempt for all
things European, the European bourgeoisie
feels it can no longer rely on traditional
allies. Emmanuel Macron’s foolish attempt
to ingratiate himself with Trump was a
spectacular failure.
125. Trump made it very clear that he saw Europe
as a main enemy, whereas Russia was only a
“competitor.” He followed up his words
with actions. His protectionist policies were
directed as much against Europe as China.
And he maintained this belligerent attitude
right to the dying days of his administration.
On New Year’s Eve, the US announced a
new hike in EU tariffs on plane parts and
wines from France and Germany.
126. Biden is looking to renew ties with Europe.
He has recommitted the US to
multilateralism, including rejoining the
WHO and the Paris climate agreement. He
has also backed a new Director General for
the WTO. The attitude on the Iranian nuclear
deal has also changed. All these are
welcome steps for the Europeans, desperate
for a change of direction from the White
House. Trump labels this new strategy
“America Last”.
127. Yet, there are conflicts between the two
sides that are much more difficult to resolve.
The Europeans are not convinced about the
US strategy on China. They are also keen to
take advantage of the US trade war with
China for their own purposes. The new
Investment Treaty struck between China and
the EU in the last weeks of Trump’s
presidency was widely seen as an affront to
Joe Biden, which the new president was
forced to swallow.
128. There are more long-running disputes to
resolve: the Airbus-Boeing state aid dispute
has been smoldering for decades with no
resolution in sight. The Nord Stream 2
Pipeline is also causing a major rift between
the US and Germany, with the US insisting
the pipeline will strengthen Russia’s
influence in Europe. The new-found
affection between Biden and the Europeans
will be tested in the coming months as both
blocks attempt to revive their exports in the
post-pandemic crisis.
129. Germany has been Europe’s anchor, an
island of stability in often stormy waters.
Angela Merkel was seen as a safe pair of
hands at the helm of Europe’s most
important country. But with the pandemic
came new problems.
130. Merkel has had to extend Germany’s
lockdown. Her coalition is fighting over
slow vaccination rates and inadequate
 supplies. The national mood has shifted
from self-congratulatory to glum. The
Financial Times commented that “the
political landscape ahead of September’s
election looks more fragmented and
volatile.”
131. In France, the Macron government is now
totally discredited, with a rate of 60 percent
disapproval: some of the worst since the
protests of the gilets jaunes. The official
unemployment rate is 9 percent, but in
reality, it is far higher.
132. The ‘National grand debate’ did nothing to
restore public support for the government,
nor did the sacking of the prime minister,
Edouard Phillipe. And Macron’s repeated
attempts to act the part of a “great
statesman” on the international plane evokes
nothing but sarcastic laughter at all levels.
Britain
133. Not long ago, Britain was probably the most
stable country in Europe. Now it has become
probably the most unstable.
134. The present crisis has cruelly exposed the
weakness of British capitalism. The UK
economy fell by 9.9 percent in 2020, twice
as much as Germany and three times as
much as the United States. Now, faced with
the effects of the pandemic and the calamity
of Brexit, a further recession is inevitable.
135. Brexit was an act of sheer madness on the
part of the Conservative Party, which has
now escaped the control of the ruling class.
The government is controlled by a circus
clown, who in turn is controlled by
demented reactionary chauvinists.
136. Despite winning a decisive victory in the
election of December 2019, the Tory party
has been increasingly discredited,
particularly by its mishandling of the
pandemic with more deaths than any other
country in Europe. The number of deaths
(clearly understated in the official figures) is
among the highest of any country
proportionate to the size of the population.
Yet the Tories have continually resisted
taking the necessary measures until it was
forced on them by the gravity of the
situation.
137. These people are not interested in the lives
and health of the population. Nor do they
care about the lamentable state of the
National Health Service (NHS), which they
have brought about with decades of cuts.
They are only motivated by one thing:
profits.
138. The Tories wish to keep production going at
all costs. That is why they were determined
to re-open schools. That led in the first days
of January to a mass protest and a 400,000
strong online meeting of teachers. Their
threat of strike action forced the government
to close the schools.
139. Yet despite the unpopularity of the
government, the Labour Party and the right-
wing leadership is still lagging behind the
Tories. There is no real opposition from
Labour.
140. The resignation of Corbyn and McDonnell
following Labour’s defeat in December
2019 was a serious blow to the left and a gift
to the right wing. The left had every
opportunity to transform the Labour Party.
They had the total backing of the rank and
file. This would have meant carrying out a
thorough purge of the right wing of the
Parliamentary Labour Party and the
bureaucracy. But they backed away from
this and refused to support the slogan of
deselection of MPs that the Marxists
advocated and which had widespread
support in the rank and file.
141. In the last analysis, the Lefts are afraid of
carrying the struggle to its ultimate
consequence, which would mean a complete
break with the right wing. But the right wing
shows no such kindness towards the Left.
Encouraged by their weakness, they have
carried out a purge of the Left – including
the suspension of Corbyn himself. This
weakness is not only a moral question. It is a
political question. It is an organic
characteristic of left reformism.
142. Big business is now calling the shots in
Labour. Keir Starmer speaks not like the
 leader of the opposition, but like a servile
member of Johnson’s cabinet. He waits for
Johnson to act before saying “me too”.
143. But now the right wing has gone too far. By
its actions, the right wing could force the
lefts to come out fighting. And our tendency
is playing a key role in this battle. The
comrades advanced the slogan of an
immediate recall of the conference of the
Labour Party, which got an echo in the rank-
and-file, who are furious at the actions of
Starmer and his clique. Lacking any ideas or
slogans of their own, the leaders of the left
belatedly took up the demand.
144. The stage is set for a battle in the Labour
Party. In effect, we have a united front with
the leading lefts in the Labour Party and,
particularly, in the trade unions. This is an
extremely important development. It shows
that our comrades have won authority as the
only serious Marxist tendency in the labour
movement and our ideas are taken very
seriously.
145. However, we must maintain a realistic
attitude. In any united front, one must keep
one eye on the enemy in front and the other
on the ally marching alongside, who may
abandon you at any moment.
146. Whatever happens, the Marxist tendency
will make gains and many new doors will be
opened for us. The art of politics is to seize
every opportunity that arises. We will take
this opportunity as far as it can go, and we
will undoubtedly gain from it.
Italy
147. Italy remains the weakest link in the chain of
European capitalism. Its chronic weakness
has been laid bare by the present crisis.
Unable to compete with more powerful
economies like Germany, it is falling further
and further behind, and sinking ever deeper
into debt.
148. Its banking system is constantly hovering on
the edge of a collapse that could drag down
the rest of Europe. The EU is obliged to prop
it up for that very reason, but it does so
cursing under its breath.
149. The German bankers, in particular, have
become increasingly impatient and up until
recently were demanding the adoption of
serious measures to cut government
spending and attack living standards. That is
to say, they were pushing Italy towards the
abyss. Their tune has somewhat changed
since the pandemic has forced all of them to
turn to the state for help. Once the pandemic
is over, they will return to austerity with
a vengeance.
150. In order to navigate through the present
crisis, the Italian ruling class requires a
strong government. But no strong
government is possible in Italy. The political
regime is rotten to the core. Lack of
confidence in the political class is expressed
by a permanent crisis of government. One
unstable coalition follows another, while at
bottom, nothing changes. The masses are
desperate and their search for a way out is
expressed by violent swings to the right and
left.
151. The crisis has been enormously exacerbated
by the pandemic, which hit Italy sooner and
harder than anywhere else. At the time of
writing, the number of deaths from COVID-
19 is getting close to the 100,000 mark.
152. The ruling class was hoping to maintain the
Centre-Left coalition as long as possible to
prevent a social explosion. But that became
unfeasible, as one by one, the political
options were being exhausted. Feeling the
fire under its backside, Renzi’s party, Italia
Viva pulled its three ministers out of Conte’s
coalition over COVID-19 pandemic failures,
leading to the collapse of the government
and opening the door to the formation of the
Draghi government.
153. The President of the Republic stepped in,
and rather than call early elections, he
invited Draghi, the ex-governor of the
European Central Bank to form a
government. Here we have yet another
example of a “technocrat” being imposed on
the country as prime minister, elected by no
one.
154. The bankruptcy of the “Centre-Left”
provided an opportunity for far-right
formations like the Brothers of Italy party.
They have stayed out of the coalition that is
backing Draghi, firstly because they are not
needed, and secondly because they are
hoping to make gains on the right at the
expense of the Lega which is now in the
government.
155. Sooner or later, however, the parliamentary
games will be replaced by an open battle
between the classes. No stability is possible
on the basis of the present system. In Italy,
there is no mass workers’ party. But the
mood of the masses grows ever angrier and
impatient by the day. The militant actions of
the workers in the first month of the
pandemic was a warning of what is to come.
156. The repeated failures of governments are
inevitably leading to an explosion of the
class struggle. Ultimately, matters will not
be solved in parliament and the day is fast
approaching when the centre of gravity will
pass from a discredited parliament to the
factories and the streets.
Russia
157. The same turbulence and volatility can be
seen everywhere. In Russia, the return and
arrest of Alexei Navalny was the signal for a
wave of protests all over the country. There
were demonstrations of 40,000 people in
Moscow, 10,000 in Petersburg and
thousands more in 110 other cities, including
Vladivostok and Khabarovsk.
158. These protests were not yet on the same
massive scale that we saw in Belarus earlier,
when millions took to the streets to
overthrow Lukashenko. But these were big
demonstrations in a Russian context. They
were very heterogeneous in composition,
with many middle-class people, intellectuals,
liberals – but also a growing number of
workers, especially young workers.
159. The police reacted with repression. Street
fighting occurred in many cities. People
broke through barricades, freed detainees
from custody and threw snowballs to drive
back the police, with about 40 officers
sustaining injuries. Several thousand people
were detained.
160. What did this represent? The protests were
in part a reflection of indignation at the
arrest of Navalny. But the question of
Navalny is only one element in this
situation, and not necessarily the most
important one.
161. Alexei Navalny is portrayed in western
media as a heroic defender of democracy. In
reality, he is an ambitious opportunist with a
dubious political past. In retrospect, he will
be seen as an accidental figure.
162. But accidental figures also play a role in
history at certain moments. Just as in
chemistry, a catalyst is needed to bring about
a particular reaction, so in the revolutionary
process, a point of reference is required to
act as a detonator to ignite the accumulated
discontent of the masses. The precise nature
of this catalyst is irrelevant. In this case, it
was the arrest of Navalny. But it could have
been any number of factors.
Falling living standards
163. The main thing is not the accident through
which necessity expresses itself but the
necessity itself. The real cause of this
upheaval was the accumulated anger of the
population at falling living standards,
economic crisis and the abuses of a corrupt
and repressive regime.
164. Everything indicates that Putin’s support is
falling. At one point the polls regularly gave
him above 70 percent support. At the time of
the annexation of Crimea, this rose to over
80 percent. But now it hovers around 63
percent, and at its lowest point it was only
just above 50 percent. These figures must
have caused serious alarm in the Kremlin.
165. In the past Putin could boast of some success
in the economic field, but not anymore.
Between 2013 and 2018, before the
pandemic, the annual economic growth was
0.7 percent, that is, it was basically stagnant.
At the end of 2020, there was negative
growth of about 5 percent. Unemployment is
 growing fast and many families are losing
their homes.
166. For a time, notably following the annexation
of Crimea, which has a majority of Russians,
Putin played the nationalist card. That
boosted his popularity, but the heady fumes
of chauvinism have now been largely
dissipated and Putin’s stock of credibility
was seriously damaged by his pension
reform.
167. There is growing indignation at the
monstrous corruption and luxurious lifestyle
of the ruling elite. Two days after his arrest,
Navalny put out a video, seen by millions,
exposing the personal corruption of Putin,
showing a large palace he has erected on the
Black Sea. All this is building up an
explosive mood.
168. The base of the regime’s support is
narrowing all the time. Outside the Kremlin
clique of oligarchs who are notoriously
corrupt, it mainly consists of state officials
whose jobs and careers depend on the boss,
a large number of cronies who depend on
state contracts and business links with the
Kremlin and others who have prospered
under its favours.
169. Last but not least, he rests on the security
apparatus and the army. The Putin regime is
a bourgeois Bonapartist regime. In the last
analysis, Bonapartism is rule by the sword.
Putin is the “strong man” who stands at the
apex of the state and balances between the
classes, presenting himself as the
embodiment of the Russian nation.
170. But this strong man has feet of clay. As he
exhausts his mass base of support, he is
increasingly reduced to maintaining himself
through a mixture of swindling, shameless
vote-rigging and naked repression.
171. Talleyrand is said to have once remarked to
Napoleon that one can do many things with
bayonets, but you cannot sit on them. Putin
would do well to ponder on that sage advice.
The arrest, imprisonment and poisoning of
political opponents are not a sign of strength
but of fear and weakness.
172. Moreover, terror is a weapon that can be
used effectively for a time, but is subject to
the law of diminishing returns. Sooner or
later, people begin to lose their fear. That is
the most dangerous moment for an
authoritarian regime. The recent
demonstrations are proof that this process
has already begun.
173. In reality, the only thing that is maintaining
the regime is the temporary inertia of the
masses. It is impossible to say with certainty
how long the present unstable equilibrium
can last. For the present, massive repression
has succeeded in putting the brakes on the
protests. But none of the underlying
problems have been solved.
174. The recent protests alarmed the regime,
which is combining repression with
concessions. They have announced a plan to
help the poorest families. This may buy
them some time. But the relatively low price
of oil will continue to damage the Russian
economy and the sanctions imposed by
America will remain, and even be tightened.
The Biden administration will be far tougher
on Russia than Trump ever was.
The “Communist” Party
175. In Russia the role of the subjective factor is
glaringly obvious. If the CPRF were a
genuine Communist Party, it would now be
preparing for power. But the Zyuganov
clique has no interest in taking power. They
have a very comfortable arrangement with
Putin, who guarantees them their privileges
on the condition that they do nothing to
disturb his hold on power.
176. The attitude of the CPRF leaders has created
a growing unease in the ranks of the party.
There have been several local and regional
revolts, which have been put down with
purges and expulsions. Entire regional
organisations have been destroyed in this
way.
177. It is perhaps significant that a charge
frequently levelled against the opposition in
the CP has been “neo-Trotskyism”. Of
course, these oppositions had nothing to do
with Trotskyism and very often reflected
 clique struggles within the bureaucracy of
the party itself.
178. Nevertheless, this accusation is symptomatic
of the fear felt by Zyuganov at the potential
for the development of a Trotskyist tendency
inside the party. In future, as the crisis
develops, the opposition inside the CPRF
will grow stronger, and the influence of
genuine Marxism within it will increase
accordingly.
179. The present uneasy truce may last for
several months or even several years. But
the delay will only mean that the
contradictions will continue to grow,
preparing the way for a far greater explosion
in the future. The most decisive element in
this equation is the Russian working class,
which has yet to say the last word.
180. It is impossible to predict the precise
timescale of events. Russia is not yet in a
pre-revolutionary situation, but events are
moving very fast. We must follow events in
that country and the progress of the Russian
Marxists with great attention.
India
181. In India we have what amounts to an
insurrectionary movement of the farmers,
who staged a tractor march to disrupt the
Republic Day Parade in Delhi on 26
January, where Modi was celebrating with a
big military parade.
182. These events have to be placed in the
context of the global crisis of capitalism. In
the cut-throat competition in the agricultural
sector, the big food multinational
corporations are trying to push down the
prices small and medium farmers receive for
their products at the point of production.
183. The marketisation of Indian agriculture is
not a new phenomenon. It has been going on
for years, as we saw under the previous
Manmohan Singh government. Finance
capital has entered Indian agriculture on a
grand scale, forcing farmers to rely more and
more on loans, to an intolerable degree, in
order to buy essential agricultural resources,
whose costs have been skyrocketing.
184. As soon as the new laws were introduced,
the prices being paid to farmers were slashed
by up to 50 percent, while retail food prices
increased. It is this unbearable situation that
has led to the huge movement of the Indian
farmers. Their demand is that the new laws
be repealed. But none of their demands have
been met, and none of these questions have
been resolved in the talks.
185. What started back in August 2020 as small-
scale protests in the Punjab, when Modi’s
Farm Bills were made public, escalated into
a much bigger movement, spreading to other
states. In September 2020 farmers’ unions
across India called for a Bharat Bandh (a
nation-wide shutdown). The movement
continued to escalate, as never-ending talks
with the government were giving no tangible
results. Five million took part in protests
across 20,000 locations in December 2020.
186. An important turning point in this movement
came with the dramatic events on 26
January, when hundreds of thousands of
farmers marched in Delhi to protest for their
demands. The farmers forced their way from
the outskirts of the city into the city’s
historic Red Fort. These poor people showed
tremendous courage, fighting heavily armed
police, being attacked with whips, and
kicked and beaten to the ground.
187. Despite heavy police repression, farmers
stormed the Red Fort, occupying the
ramparts. It took the police a lot of effort to
drive them out. One protester died, and more
than 300 police officers were injured. This
only served to enrage the farmers even more,
and pulled more into the movement from
other states in solidarity.
188. The scale of this struggle also reflects
ferment in the whole of society, where even
what were considered relatively conservative
layers in rural areas are moving into action
and becoming radicalised under the impact
of the economic crisis.
189. It was not so long ago, when Modi first won
the elections, that the tired lefts and ex-lefts
were lamenting the rise of “fascism” in
India. Our tendency, however, understood
 that Modi in office would prepare the
conditions for a backlash of immense
proportions. Our perspectives have been
confirmed by events on a grand scale. Far
from fascism, what we have is class
polarisation and intense class struggle.
Role of the Stalinists
190. Modi has clearly been shaken by the
farmers’ uprising, which gave some idea of
the pent-up fury of the masses. But the
weakness of the movement in India is to be
found in the leadership of the trade unions
who have failed to provide a serious
response from the powerful Indian working
class in support of the farmers.
191. All this comes after years in which we have
seen massive mobilisations of the Indian
proletariat, with several huge 24-hour
general strikes, involving up to 200 million
workers – the biggest general strikes in the
history of the international working class.
192. In September 2016 between 150 and 180
million public sector workers went on a 24-
hour general strike. In 2019 around 220
million workers participated in a general
strike, and again in January 2020, 250
million workers took part in a 24-hour
general strike.
193. These facts demonstrate the colossal
revolutionary potential of the Indian
proletariat. The workers are prepared to
fight. However the Stalinists’ policy was not
to mobilise the masses for a decisive
showdown with the Modi regime, but only
to lean on the mass movement to get
concessions and reach deals with Modi.
194. In practice, they used the tactic of one-day
general strikes to allow the workers to blow
off steam, while diverting the mass
movement into harmless channels. That was
the same tactic the trade union leaders used
in Greece, calling a series of one-day general
strikes. This is a trick to wear out the
workers, turning the general strike into a
meaningless gesture, creating the illusion of
decisive action, while undermining such
action in practice.
The slogan of the general strike
195. In India, objectively speaking, all the
conditions exist for an all-out general strike.
The Communist parties and trade union
leaders could have played an important role
in this, but they are dragging their feet. They
could have brought down the Modi
government, and put an end to his
reactionary policies. Instead, they make
token statements, but issue no call for
serious action.
196. This highlights the urgent need to build up
the forces of Marxism in India. But we have
to keep a sense of proportion. Our
organization in India is still in an early stage.
It would be a fatal mistake to have an
exaggerated idea of what we can achieve.
197. Our task is not to lead the movement or win
over the masses, but to work patiently to win
over the best and most revolutionary
elements who are becoming impatient with
the endless prevarications and vacillations of
the leadership.
198. We must advance timely transitional slogans
that correspond to the urgent needs of the
situation and push the movement forward,
while exposing the pusillanimous conduct of
the leadership.
199. The farmers’ struggle has had an echo in the
factories. Feeling the flames under their
backsides, the trade union leaders began
talking about a four-day general strike. We
would support such a demand, but what is
needed is not words but deeds!
200. We should say: very well, let us have a four-
day strike, but less talk and more action!
Name the day! Start a campaign in the
factories. Call mass protest meetings, set up
strike committees. Draw in the farmers, the
women, the youths, the unemployed and all
oppressed sections of society. And link up
these rank-and-file organs of struggle on a
citywide, regional and national level. In
other words, organise soviets for the purpose
of transferring power to the workers and
farmers.
201. Once the masses of India are organised for
the conquest of power, no force on earth
 could stop them. A four-day strike would
soon be transformed into an all-out
indefinite general strike. But that poses the
question of power.
202. That is the perspective that we must
patiently explain to the Indian workers and
farmers. By such means, even though we are
very small, our message will strike a chord
with the most advanced workers and youth
who are seeking the revolutionary road.
203. Our task is to win and train a sufficient
number of revolutionary cadres that will
enable us to intervene effectively in the
dramatic events that will unfold in the
coming period.
Myanmar
204. The military coup in Myanmar is a
confirmation that we live in a period of
“sharp turns and sudden changes”. The coup
came as a surprise to many. The military had
drawn up a constitution that gives them a
guaranteed 25 percent of MPs and control
over key ministries. It also inserted a clause
that allows the military to step in during an
“emergency”.
205. But where was the emergency here? The
military invented one by falsely claiming
widespread electoral fraud during the huge
landslide victory of Aung San Suu Kyi and
the National League for Democracy, in
November 2020.
206. What is really behind the coup is the
ongoing conflict over who should benefit
from the programme of privatisation that
started in 1988. The military officers have
been busy ever since then enriching
themselves by grabbing state owned
property at knockdown prices. On the other
hand, the imperialists, in particular, the
United States, are pushing for Myanmar to
open up its market to the multinational
corporations.
207. The problem the imperialists face is that the
dominant external power in Myanmar is
China. The largest quota of Myanmar’s
exports and imports is with China. Thus, we
have here a struggle over spheres of
influence, fundamentally between China and
the United States, where Aung San Suu Kyi
is the agent of the latter.
208. The military chiefs have been transforming
themselves into capitalist oligarchs, and saw
the massive landslide victory of the NLD as
a potential threat to their interests. The
military are hated by the masses, and the
officer caste feared that with such huge
support, the new incoming government
could move to curb their power and
privileges.
209. The military also feared the growing
confidence of the masses after the elections.
Used to governing the country by command
in the past, they thought they could intervene
and dictate which direction the country is to
go. However, they did not take into account
how strong the opposition is to military rule.
The masses have not forgotten what it was
like under military rule, and they see the
military caste as corrupt and money-
grabbing.
210. Here we have an example of what Marx
referred to as the “whip of the counter-
revolution”. The coup, rather than terrorising
and paralysing the masses, has spurred them
on. The perspective for Myanmar is
therefore one of intensified class struggle,
not paralysis and demoralisation.
China
211. Previously, China was a big part of the
solution for world capitalism, now it is a big
part of the problem.
212. China is the only major economic power to
experience growth in 2020. The Chinese
state intervened very decisively to
counteract both the pandemic and the
economic crisis. This was effective from a
capitalist point of view, but it has come at a
high cost. China’s debt levels have
skyrocketed since 2008 and the country has
now overtaken many of the advanced
capitalist countries in its level of debt.
213. The World Bank is now forecasting growth
of 8 percent this year. If that is true, then
China will outperform the rest of the world.
 But this very success will be its undoing,
since a large part of its growth is export-led.
China has a massive surplus of foreign trade,
but it is now far more dependent on the
world economy than ever before.
214. This is a recipe for new contradictions that
threaten the stability, not just of China but
the whole world. China is intervening
aggressively on the world market and will
have to intervene even more aggressively,
taking advantage of the crisis in the rest of
the world. It inevitably means greater
tension between China and the United
States, which sees China as the main danger
to its economy and its world role.
215. It is no accident that, in its dying days, the
Trump administration adopted a “scorched
earth” approach to China, but under Biden,
US policy towards China will not
fundamentally change. Both Republicans
and Democrats see China as the main threat
to the USA on a world scale.
216. The conflict between the USA and China
threatens to bring about an even more
serious trade war. This is the greatest threat
to world capitalism that exists, because it
was the growth of world trade (so-called
globalisation) that provided the necessary
oxygen for capitalism in the last period.
217. This in turn will have an effect inside China.
An economic crisis would constitute a
serious threat to its social stability. There
have already been factory closures and
unemployment, which have been concealed,
but they exist. Private companies shifted
their problems onto their workers with
sackings and attacks on wages. Wage
payments are being delayed for months,
building up colossal anger and resentment.
218. The ruling circles fear the possibility of
social explosions as a result of the economic
crisis and the growth of unemployment. That
is the main reason why Xi Jinping was
obliged to clamp down viciously on Hong
Kong. This was not an expression of
strength, but of fear and weakness. The
Chinese ruling class was terrified that this
kind of movement could spread to the
mainland, and in the future it eventually
will, as night follows day.
219. The regime has so far succeeded in keeping
the lid on the seething discontent throughout
China. But it can erupt at any time, and
when that occurs it will not be possible to
repress it as in Hong Kong. Even there, for a
while the regime lost control of events. But
faced with a hundred or a thousand Hong
Kongs in mainland China, it would
immediately find itself suspended in mid-air.
220. Great events are being prepared in China.
And they will happen when nobody expects
them, precisely because it is a totalitarian
regime, where most of what is happening is
hidden from view.
Changed balance of forces
221. What got the USA out of the Depression of
the 1930s was not Roosevelt’s New Deal but
the Second World War. But that avenue is
now closed. The power of American
imperialism has declined relative to other
powers, and so has its ability to intervene
militarily.
222. The need to conquer markets and sources of
raw materials forces China to be more
aggressive on the world market. It has been
grabbing access to resources around the
world. For example, it has taken control of a
port and an airport in Sri Lanka; it has
established a military base in Djibouti;
building railways in Ethiopia; grabbing
copper and cobalt in Congo; copper in
Zambia; oil in Angola and so on. It also
claims sovereignty over the South China
Sea, which is the most important route for
world trade.
223. This directly threatens the interests of US
imperialism. All this inevitably means
greater tension between China and the
United States. In previous periods that
would undoubtedly have led to war. But the
balance of forces has now changed
completely.
224. Trump was not able to get North Korea to
abandon nuclear weapons. “Little Rocket
Man” ran circles around him. So why does
 the USA not declare war on North Korea,
which is after all a very small Asian
country?
225. In the past the Americans waged a war in
Korea that ended in a draw. But in Vietnam,
after a tremendous drain of blood and gold,
they were defeated for the first time. After
that they suffered humiliation in Iraq,
Afghanistan and Syria.
226. Trump seemed to be preparing an air strike
on Iran, but backed away at the last minute,
fearing the consequences. All this serves to
underline the fact that war is not an abstract
question, but a very concrete one.
227. The USA was not able to defend Ukraine or
Georgia against Russia, which has a very
powerful army that demonstrated its
effectiveness in Syria. The USA was
compelled to retreat, leaving Russia and Iran
as virtual masters of the country. The
Americans sent a handful of troops to the
Baltic states to “protect” them against
Russia. But Putin has no intention of
invading these small states and will lose no
sleep over this.
228. The case with regards to China is clearer
still. China today is no longer a poor,
underdeveloped country as in the past. It is
an economically developed state with a
powerful army, it possesses nuclear weapons
and sufficient intercontinental ballistic
missiles to hit any US cities it chooses.
229. The fact that China recently put a satellite in
orbit around the moon and sent a mission to
Mars clearly made this point, which
Washington has duly noted. There is
therefore absolutely no question of war in
the foreseeable future between the United
States and China, or, for that matter,
between the USA and Russia.
230. A general conflagration on the lines of 1914-
18 or 1939-45 is ruled out because of the
changed balance of forces. Under modern
conditions, it would mean a nuclear war,
which would be catastrophic for the entire
world.
231. However, this does not mean that the next
period will be one of peaceful tranquillity.
Quite the contrary, in fact. There will be
wars all the time – small but devastating
local wars – in Africa and the Middle East in
particular. The US imperialists, together
with the other imperialist powers, have been
involved in local wars backing proxy armies
to wage war against their competitors, and
this will also be the case with China in the
future, but they are very averse to risking the
lives of US soldiers in foreign wars to which
US public opinion is now implacably
opposed.
232. This situation can only change in the event
of the victory of a fascist regime in the USA.
But that could only be achieved after a series
of decisive defeats of the American working
class, which is not at all our perspective.
Long before that could arise, the working
class will have many opportunities to take
power. The constant bleating of the so-called
lefts and the sects about the alleged fascism
represented by Trump is mere childishness,
to which we must pay absolutely no
attention whatsoever.
233. At the present time, US imperialism uses its
economic muscle to assert its global
domination. The Trump administration
repeatedly used the threat of economic
sanctions to bully the rest of the world into
slavishly following Washington’s policies in
the field of foreign affairs. US imperialism
has weaponized trade.
234. Having unilaterally broken the deal with
Iran, which had been painfully put together
by the previous US administration and its
European allies, Trump tightened sanctions
in order to throttle Iran’s economy, and then
forced European companies and banks to
follow, on pain of being excluded from US
markets.
235. In the past, if the British imperialists had a
problem with a semi-colonial country like
Persia, they would send a gunboat.
Nowadays, US imperialism sends a letter
from the Board of Trade. In fact, the effects
of the latter are far more devastating than a
few shells launched from a battleship.
236. Clausewitz said that war is politics by other
means. Nowadays we should add that trade
is war by other means.
“Voodoo economics”
237. When the ruling class is faced with losing
everything, it will resort to desperate
measures to save the system. We see that
right now. In their desperate search for
solutions to the crisis, the bourgeois lurch
like a drunken man from one lamppost to
another.
238. They have rummaged about in the dustbin of
history and fished out the old ideas of
Keynesianism. The bourgeoisie has
suddenly become drunk with its newly
discovered illusions, which are merely old,
discredited theories that they had previously
contemptuously discarded.
239. Ted Grant used to describe Keynesianism as
voodoo economics. That is a very fair
description. The idea that the bourgeois can
avoid crises or get out of them by injecting
large sums of public money sounds
attractive – especially to the left reformists,
whom it absolves of the need of fighting to
change society. But there is a slight problem.
240. The state is not a magical money tree. The
idea that it can be a source of unlimited
funds is complete nonsense. Yet this
nonsense has been adopted by almost every
government. It is really a policy born of
desperation. And it has led to the piling up
of astronomical debts that have no precedent
except in time of war.
241. At the moment, governments everywhere are
spending money like water. They talk about
spending billions of dollars, pounds or euros
as if they were spending small change on a
box of matches.
242. As a result, there is a ticking time bomb of
debt, which is built into the foundations of
the economy. In the long term, the effects
will be more devastating than any terrorist
bomb. This is what Alan Greenspan once
referred to as “the irrational exuberance of
the market”.
243. A more accurate word would be “madness”.
This madness must lead to a fall, which is
euphemistically referred to as a “market
correction”.
Role of the state in the
economy
244. On 8 May 2020 the Financial Times
published an Editorial Board statement in
which we read the following:
245. “Short of a communist revolution, it is hard
to imagine how governments could have
intervened in private markets – for labour,
for credit, for the exchange of goods and
services – as quickly and deeply as in the
past two months of lockdowns.
246. “Overnight, millions of private sector
employees have been getting their pay
cheques from public budgets and central
banks have flooded financial markets with
electronic money.”
247. But how can these statements be reconciled
with the oft-repeated mantra that tells us that
the state has no role whatever to play in a
“free market economy?” To this question the
Financial Times provides a most interesting
answer:
248. (…) “But liberal democratic capitalism is
not self-sufficient, and needs to be protected
and maintained to be resilient.”
249. In other words, the “free market” is not free
at all. Under present conditions it must lean
on the state as a crippled person leans on
crutches. It can only exist thanks to massive
and unprecedented handouts from the state.
The IMF calculates the total amount of fiscal
support worldwide at a staggering US$14tn.
Global government debt has now reached 99
percent of GDP for the first time in history.
250. This is a confession of bankruptcy – in the
most literal sense of the word. The central
problem in this equation can be summed up
with one word: debt. Total global debt
(including government, households and
corporations) at the end of 2020 reached 356
percent of GDP, up 35 percentage points
from 2019, reaching a record $281 trillion. It
 is now even higher and rising. This is the
greatest danger facing the capitalist system.
251. Japan spent about $3 trillion to cushion the
economic blow from COVID-19, adding to
its public debt, which is already 2.5 times
the size of its economy. The problem is
particularly severe in China, where total debt
has surpassed 280 percent of GDP, which
puts China level with most advanced
capitalist countries, and it is rising rapidly in
all sectors of the economy.
252. This January, the World Bank sounded the
alarm about a “fourth wave of debt”, which
is particularly severe outside of the advanced
capitalist countries. They are seriously
worried about a financial crash with long-
term consequences.
253. The bourgeois are acting like an
irresponsible gambler who is spending vast
quantities of money which he does not
possess. They suffer from the same
delusions and experience the same kind of
delirious ecstasy of squandering huge
amounts of money in the confident belief
that their luck will never run out… until the
fatal moment arrives – as it always does –
when the debts have to be paid.
254. Sooner or later, these debts will catch up
with them. But in the short term, they are
quite happy to continue this madness,
printing vast sums of money that have no
real backing and swamping the economy
with eye-watering amounts of fictitious
capital.
Is a recovery possible?
255. Carried away with this euphoria, they even
publish articles confidently predicting a
rebound – not just a recovery but a massive
upswing. In the columns of the bourgeois
press one can read confident predictions of a
recovery. Such predictions are heavy on
optimism but woefully light on facts.
256. The present crisis differs from the crises of
the past in several respects. In the first place,
it is inseparably entangled with the
coronavirus pandemic, and nobody can
predict with any degree of certainty how
long that will last.
257. For all these reasons, the economic
predictions of the IMF and the World Bank
cannot be regarded as anything more than
mere guesswork. The only thing certain is
that, at this moment in time, all the main
indicators are pointing stubbornly
downwards.
258. But does this mean that a recovery is ruled
out? No, it would be a mistake to draw such
a conclusion. In fact, at a certain point, some
sort of recovery is inevitable. The capitalist
system has always moved in booms and
slumps. The pandemic has distorted the
economic cycle, but has not abolished it.
259. Lenin explained that the capitalist system
can always get out of even the deepest crisis.
It will continue to exist until it is overthrown
by the working class. Sooner or later, it will
find a way out of this crisis also. But to say
that is to say at once too much and too little.
260. The question must be posed concretely, on
the basis of what we already know. The
precise nature of these booms and slumps
can vary very considerably. And the
question that must be asked is: what kind of
recovery are we talking about?
261. Will it signify the beginning of a prolonged
period of growth and prosperity? Or will it
be merely a temporary interlude between
one crisis and another? The most optimistic
claims are based on the existence (at least in
the most advanced capitalist economies) of
“pent-up demand”.
262. During the pandemic, people were unable to
spend much money on goods, restaurants,
cafes and bars or foreign travel. The end of
the pandemic – so the theory runs – can
serve to release these unspent funds,
promoting a sharp upwards movement in the
economy and a recovery of confidence. This
fact, together with further huge injections of
public money, could lead to a rapid
recovery.
Recovery and the class struggle
263. Let us admit, for a moment, that such a
scenario cannot be ruled out a priori. What
would the consequence be? From our point
of view, such a development would not be at
all negative. The pandemic and the
consequent rise of unemployment, shocked
the working class and led to a certain
amount of paralysis.
264. It acted as a deterrent to strikes and other
forms of mass action and allowed
governments to introduce anti-democratic
measures under the pretext of “fighting
Covid-19”.
265. But even a slight fall in unemployment
would have the immediate effect of
reactivating the economic struggle, as
workers strive to win back everything they
lost in the previous period.
266. Such a recovery, however, would be
temporary and extremely unstable, because
it would be built upon a very artificial and
unsound basis. It would contain within itself
the seeds of its own destruction. And the
higher it climbs, the more severe the fall will
be.
267. Moreover, it would also be an uneven
recovery, with China most likely surging
ahead at the expense of the USA and with
Europe lagging behind. This would further
exacerbate tensions between China and the
USA and also between China and Europe,
leading to a further intensification of the
trade war, with a scramble to seize scarce
markets, further undermining world trade
and depressing economic life.
268. This is the greatest threat of all to world
capitalism. Let us recall that the Great
Depression was caused, not by the stock
market crash of 1929, but by the
protectionist policies that followed it.
The “Roaring Twenties”
269. When the economists predict a sharp upturn
following the pandemic, they often draw a
parallel with the “Roaring Twenties”. But
this parallel is extremely shaky and the
conclusions we can draw from it are hardly
encouraging from the capitalist point of
view.
270. It is true that there was a recovery after 1924
that had quite a feverish character, with
massive speculation in the stock exchange
producing huge amounts of fictitious capital.
But we must not forget that it ended in the
Crash of 1929.
271. It is entirely possible that we will experience
a similar situation. With one important
difference. The unprecedented amounts of
fictitious capital now being produced are
vastly greater than in the “Roaring
Twenties” – in fact, greater than at any time
in history in peacetime. The fall when it
comes – as it must – will therefore be
correspondingly greater.
272. The bourgeois have forgotten one little
detail. Money must represent real values,
otherwise it is just bits of paper –
promissory notes of which the promise will
never be kept. Traditionally, the backing for
paper money was gold. Every nation had to
keep a stock of gold in its vaults and, in
theory, anyone could demand the value of
banknotes in gold.
273. In practice, however, this was not possible.
Over time, people learned to accept that a
dollar, pound or euro was “as good as gold”.
Of course, it could be something else.
Before gold, it was silver. Before that, it
could be almost anything. It could be
production. But unless it is based on some
kind of material value, it is just worthless
bits of paper.
274. When the link with gold was broken by the
abolition of the gold standard, governments
and central bankers could issue as much
paper money as they wished. But by
pumping large amounts of what is really
fictitious capital into the economy, the
relation between the amount of money in
circulation and the goods and services it can
purchase becomes distorted. In the US
economy, measured by M2, the money
supply has increased by an astonishing $4
trillion in 2020. That is a one-year increase
of 26 percent – the largest annual percentage
 increase since 1943. This must eventually be
expressed in an explosion of inflation.
275. This fact is now being conveniently ignored
by politicians, economists and central
bankers. They point out that so far, the fears
of inflation have not materialised. That is
quite true and it reflects a severe slump in
demand – a symptom of the depth of the
crisis. Not having an outlet in consumer
prices, the inflationary pressure has inflated
speculative bubbles in share prices, in
cryptocurrencies, etc. But this situation
cannot last. The initial euphoria of investors
will then turn into its opposite.
276. At a certain point, the strains brought about
by the huge accumulated debts will cause a
panic. Interest rates will have to rise sharply
to combat inflation. Cheap credit, which has
kept the system afloat till now, will dry up
overnight. The banks will cease to lend to
small and medium businesses, which will go
bankrupt.
277. As in 1929, the economic realities will pour
ice-cold water onto the “irrational
exuberance” of the investors. As night
follows day, there will be a panic in the
stock exchanges of the world. Investors will
sell their shares at a loss, creating a steep
and unstoppable fall.
278. Already investors see the colossal debts that
are being piled up in the USA, and are
beginning to doubt that the dollar is really
worth what they say it is worth. Later on,
unless serious remedial action is taken, there
will be a stampede to dump dollars, and a
steep fall in the value of the dollar will have
a domino effect on other currencies, with a
resulting chaos in international money
markets.
279. The capitalists will seek a safe refuge in
gold, silver and platinum. This will be the
prelude to a deep slump in the real economy,
with a collapse of investment, a drying up of
credit, and the resultant wave of
bankruptcies, factory closures and
unemployment.
280. Finally, the crisis will hit the banks
themselves. The collapse of just one big
bank can cause a general banking crisis.
That is what occurred on May 11, 1931,
when the Austrian Creditanstalt bank
announced that it had lost more than half of
its capital, a criterion under Austrian law by
which a bank was declared failed.
281. All this can happen again. The bourgeois
economists try to soothe jittery nerves by
repeating that this cannot happen because we
have learned the lessons of history. But as
Hegel pointed out: “What experience and
history teaches us is that people and
governments have never learned anything
from history, or acted on principles deduced
from it.”
282. The warning signs, however, are already
flashing, and some of the more sober minded
economists can see this. But despite all
warnings, the bourgeois have no alternative
but to follow the path they have already
chosen.
283. Capitalism now displays all the symptoms of
advanced senile decay. We can state with
certainty that any recovery will not signify
an improvement in the overall health of that
system, but merely a cyclical upturn that
prepares an even deeper crisis. And a
depression even more severe than that of the
1930s is being prepared. This will be the
inevitable result of the policies that are now
being pursued. That is the real perspective,
and the social and political consequences
will be incalculable.
Social and political consequences
284. For Marxists, the study of economics only
has importance insofar as it expresses itself
in the consciousness of the masses. The
scenario we have outlined has clear
similarities with the 1930s, but there are also
important differences.
285. At that time, the contradictions in society
were resolved in a relatively short space of
time, either by the victory of the proletarian
revolution, or reaction in the form of fascism
or Bonapartism. Today, such a rapid solution
is ruled out by the changed balance of
forces.
286. The working class today is much more
numerous than in the 1930s. Its specific
weight in society is far greater, while the
social reserves of reaction (the peasantry and
other small property owners, students etc.)
have been sharply reduced.
287. The bourgeoisie finds itself faced with the
most serious crisis in its history, but is
unable to quickly move in the direction of
reaction. On the other hand, the working
class, despite its objective strength, is
constantly held back by the leadership,
which is even more degenerate now than
what it was in the 1930s.
288. For all these reasons, the present
crisis will be prolonged in time. It can last
years, or even decades, with ups and
downs, due to the absence of the
subjective factor. However, this is only
one side of the coin. The fact that it will be
long and drawn out does not mean it will
be any less turbulent. Quite the opposite:
the perspective is one of sharp and sudden
changes.
289. The development of consciousness in the
working class cannot be mechanically
reduced to the number of strikes and mass
demonstrations. This is the false idea of the
sectarians and ultra-lefts who base
themselves entirely on mindless activism,
and fail to see the deeper processes of
radicalisation that are occurring quietly
beneath the surface all the time. This is what
Trotsky called the molecular process of
socialist revolution.
290. Superficial empirics are only able to see the
surface of events, but the real processes
escape their attention entirely. Consequently,
they are immediately thrown off-balance by
temporary lulls in the class struggle. They
become disheartened and pessimistic, and
are taken completely off-guard when the
movement suddenly bursts onto the surface.
291. The combination of the pandemic and mass
unemployment have acted as a brake on the
economic struggle. There has been a sharp
decline in the number of strikes when
conditions were unfavourable for mass
demonstrations, although they sometimes
occurred. But the absence of mass struggles
does not signify in the slightest degree that
the development of consciousness has been
brought to a halt. Quite the contrary, in fact.
292. The depth of the crisis is transforming the
psychology of millions of men and women.
The youth, in particular, are wide open to
revolutionary ideas. The crying
contradictions in society, the frightful
suffering of the masses – all these things are
creating a colossal build-up of anger and
bitterness, which is silently accumulating in
the depth of society.
293. The longer this goes on, the more violent
and elemental will be the explosion when it
finally comes. And come it will, as night
follows day. As Marx wrote to Engels:
294. “Taken all in all, the crisis has been
burrowing away like the good old mole it
is.”
The trade unions
295. Trotsky once wrote that theory is the
superiority of foresight over astonishment.
The reformists and sectarians are always
astonished when the workers begin to move
after a period of apparent inertia.
296. At the beginning of 1968, the Mandelites
and other sectarians had written off the
French working class entirely. They said that
the workers were bourgeoisified and
Americanised. One of these gentlemen wrote
that there was no possibility of a general
strike in any European country at that time.
A few weeks later, the French workers
launched the greatest revolutionary general
strike in history.
297. They were completely misled by the absence
of big movements of the class in the
preceding period. Today also, many of the
activists in the trade union and labour
movement have been disoriented by past
events. They have lost confidence in the
ability of the workers to struggle and have
become pessimistic, sceptical and cynical.
They themselves have become an obstacle,
blocking the road to struggle. It would be
 fatal for us to be guided by their jaundiced
and defeatist views.
298. As we have explained, even a relatively
weak economic revival will be the signal for
an explosion of the class struggle, which will
shake the trade unions to their foundations.
Already the reformist trade union leaders are
completely out of their depth. They reflect
the past, the days when they had an easy life
and good relations with the bosses, who
could grant concessions to the workers
without eating into their profits.
299. Now things are very different. The bosses
are attempting to place all the burden of the
crisis onto the shoulders of the workers, who
find themselves in an intolerable position,
where even their lives and those of their
families are put in danger.
300. The depth of the crisis rules out any kind of
meaningful and long-lasting concessions.
The workers will have to fight for every
demand – not to gain new concessions but to
preserve the gains made in the past.
301. But even where they succeed, their gains
will be wiped out by inflation, which must
re-emerge as a consequence of the vast
amounts of fictitious capital that have been
put in circulation. What the bosses give with
the right hand, they will take back with the
left.
302. This means that the unions will come under
pressure from the workers who will demand
action to defend their rights, working
conditions and living standards. The union
leaders will either bend to this pressure, or
else will find themselves removed and
replaced by others who are prepared to fight.
The unions will be transformed in the course
of struggle.
303. Dialectics tells us things can change into
their opposites, and we must be prepared for
this. Even the most reactionary and
apparently inert unions will be drawn into
this struggle. This process has already begun
in countries such as Britain. One by one, the
old right-wing leaders are dying or retiring,
or being replaced.
304. A new generation of younger class fighters
is beginning to challenge the leadership. The
stage is set for the transformation of the
unions into organisations of struggle. And
we Marxists must be at the front ranks of
this struggle, upon which ultimately the
success of the socialist revolution depends.
The task before us
305. The year 2021 will be like no other, the
working class has entered a very harsh
school, there will be many defeats and
setbacks, but from that school the workers
will draw the necessary lessons.
306. The accumulation of tension over many
years can lead to sudden overnight changes,
posing very serious questions before us. And
we must be prepared! In the coming period,
new layers will be drawn into the struggle.
We saw that in France with the gilets jaunes.
We now see it in India with the movement
of the farmers. In a peculiar way, we even
saw a glimpse of it in the storming of the US
Capitol.
307. The main problem is one of leadership. The
angry mood of the masses exists but finds no
expression in the official organizations. The
trade union leaders are trying to hold the
movement back. But with or without them,
the movement will somehow find a way of
expressing itself.
308. The masses can only learn from one thing,
that is experience. As Lenin used to say:
“Life teaches.” The workers are learning
from their experience of the crisis. But it is a
slow and painful learning process. It takes
time for the masses to draw the same
conclusions that we drew, for theoretical
reasons, years ago.
309. This learning process would be greatly
expedited if there existed a mass
revolutionary organisation with sufficient
numbers present and with sufficient
authority to be listened to by the workers.
Such a party exists potentially in the ranks of
the IMT. But at present it exists only as an
embryo. And as old Hegel wrote: “When we
wish to see an oak with its powerful trunk,
its spreading branches, and its mass of
 foliage, we are not satisfied if instead we are
shown an acorn.”
310. We have made great advances, and we
expect to make many more. But we must
honestly admit that at the present time we
lack the necessary numbers. We lack the
necessary roots in the working class and its
organisations to make a substantial
difference.
311. However, with correct ideas and timely
slogans, we can reach the most advanced
workers and youth, and through them we can
later reach greater numbers. Here or there
we can be in a position to lead particular
struggles. But in general, we have to aim for
small successes, since modest success and
small victories will provide us with the
stepping stones for greater successes in
future.
312. Our International has shown tremendous
resilience and audacity, facing up to the
difficulties and discovering new methods of
work. As a result, in the last 12 months, we
have made tremendous progress, while other
groups have experienced crises and splits,
and are rapidly falling into a well-deserved
oblivion.
313. We have far fewer competitors than in the
past. The sects are falling to pieces and the
Stalinists, who were a serious obstacle in the
past, are a mere shadow of their former
selves. They still cling to some positions in
the unions that they inherited from the past.
But they invariably act as a “left” cover for
the right wing of the bureaucracy. They will
be swept aside together with it as soon as the
workers begin to move.
314. Our main competitors will be the left
reformists, who have no clear political
perspective. Many of them no longer stand
even in words for the socialist
transformation of society, and therefore
constantly vacillate between the pressures of
the bourgeois and the right reformists, and
the pressure of the working-class rank-and-
file. This is an international phenomenon.
315. But despite their lack of clear ideas (and
partly because of it), they will inevitably
come to the fore on the basis of mass
radicalisation. Being politically unstable and
lacking in any clear ideology, they will
occasionally mouth very radical, even
“revolutionary” slogans. But that will only
be a question of words, and they can swing
back to the right just as quickly as they
swing to the left. We will give the Lefts
critical support, backing them whenever they
fight the right wing, but criticising any
tendency to backsliding, concessions and
capitulation.
316. One common feature of all our political
rivals – including the Lefts – is their
inability to win the youth. Our obvious
success in winning the best of the youth fills
the sceptics with rage and indignation.
Above all it perplexes them. How can the
IMT win so many young people in the
present situation, when everything is so
black and hopeless? They shake their heads
in disbelief and carry on moaning about the
sad state of the world.
317. As Lenin pointed out: he who has the youth
has the future. The reason for our success is
not hard to see. The youth are naturally
revolutionary. They demand a serious
struggle against capitalism and are impatient
of timidity and theoretical confusion.
318. Our strength is based on two things: Marxist
theory and a firm orientation to the youth.
We have proved this in practice to be a
winning combination. These successes
provide confidence and optimism for the
future. But we must at all times preserve a
sense of proportion. We are as yet only in
the beginning of the beginning.
319. Far greater challenges lie before us that will
put us to the test. There is no room for
complacency. If we ask ourselves whether
we are ready to take advantage of the great
opportunities that exist, what is the answer?
If we are absolutely honest, we should
answer in the negative. No, we are not ready
– not yet, at least. But we must get ready, as
soon as possible. And that in the final
analysis means growth.
320. We must always start with quality, winning And if we continue to pursue the correct
the ones and twos and educating and training ideas, tactics and methods, we will certainly
cadres. But we must then transform quality achieve it.
into quantity: building a bigger and more London, 5 March 2021
effective organization. In turn, quantity
becomes quality. With a hundred cadres one
can do things that are impossible for a
dozen. And just think what we could do in
Britain or Pakistan or Russia with a
thousand cadres. It is a qualitative
difference!
321. Cadre building must go hand in hand with
growth. There is no contradiction. The
organization must develop as the situation
changes. And it must change as the situation
changes, becoming more professional, more
disciplined, and more mature.
322. We have the correct ideas, methods and
perspectives. However, we need far more
than this. Our task is now to turn this into
growth and to create a powerful
revolutionary army of cadres, capable of
leading workers in the struggle. We are
already making impressive strides in this
direction.
323. In the beginning, it seemed that the
pandemic would create insurmountable
difficulties for the Marxists. It has certainly
shipwrecked all those pseudo-Marxist sects
who based themselves on mindless activism.
But the IMT has gone from strength to
strength, winning over 1,000 new members
in the past year. And this is only the
beginning.
324. Comrades of the international! We are in a
race against the clock. Our task can be
simply stated: it is to make conscious the
unconscious (or semi-conscious) will of the
working class to change society.
325. Great events are being prepared. In order to
raise up to the immense tasks, we require an
internal revolution, beginning with a
revolution of our own mentality. We cannot
think in the same way as in the past. All
traces of the small circle mentality and
routine must be rooted out. What is needed
is a professional approach to party building.
There is nothing more important in our lives.