Rev

iewofzewduT.Segel
e(gr
oupt
hree)

1.Whatdoest heauthori
ntendtodiscuss?(stat
ementoft heproblem)
ThekiremtandMar chrai
nfall
effectonhornofAf r
icainparti
cular
lyEt
hiopi
ancount
ry
seasonalt
ointerannualv
ari
abili
tybystat
isti
calmulti
model assemblerai
nfal
lpr
edi
cti
on
onagricul
tur
alandsocioeconomi cdi
sastermiti
gati
on

2.Whati
stheobj
ect
iveorpur
poseoft
her
esear
ch?I
sthi
scl
ear
lyst
ated?y
es

Toknowt heef
fectofcli
mat e(r
ainf
all
)call
edkiremtonhornofAfri
ca(Ethi
opia)
populati
onbypredicti
ngusingstati
sti
calmulti
modelrai
nfal
lpr
edicti
on.Bypredi
cti
ng
seasonaltoint
erannualvar
iabil
i
tyofrai
nfall
toimprovetheagr
icul
turalpl
anni
ngand
socioeconomicdisast
ermitigat
ion.

3.Whatar
ethedat
aty
peandper
iodofexami
nef
ort
hest
udyandhowi
sitsel
ect
ed?

Thedat aarefrom rai

ngaugestati
onpredi
cti
onofl
ocal
,regi
onalandAddisAbabaci
ty
almostthir
tyyearswithper
iodofexamineofonetothr
eemont hsandthedat
ais
select
eddependi ngontheregi
onwi t
hmostsuscept
ibl
etodroughtandhighi
nter
annual
rai
nfal
lv ar
iabi
l
ityandhighpopulat
edarea.

4.Whatarethemet
hodsused,
aret
hemet
hodscl
ear
lyexpl
ainedandappr
opr
iat
e?
Answeryes

Themet hod(tools)areallEthiopi
anstandardi
zedki r
emtr ainf
allanomali
es,augusttotal
rai
nfal
latAddi sAbaba and combol cha (1984 Ethiopian drought)high i
nterannual
rai
nfal
lv ari
abil
it
y chal l
enging tradi
ti
onal si ngle modelbased seasonalf orecast
methodsanddai lyrainf
allrecordofAddisAbabaandcombol cha
NorthEasternEthiopianstandardizedJune-September( JJAS)r ai
nfal
lanomali
esbased
oncauseofsuscept i
bil
it
ytodr oughtandrainf
allvari
abil
it
y .

5.Whatar
etheaut
hor
'smaj
orf
indi
ngsandconcl
usi
ons?

Majorfi
ndingarepr edicti
ngkiremtmont hlytoseasonalrainfal
latlocal
,regi
onaland
nati
onalleveldependi ng on cli
mat e system by leave-
one- outcross vali
dation
(LOOCV)and r et
roact i
vev eri
fi
cation (RV)approach based on av erage mar ch
atmospheric and sea sur face temperature(SST)condi ti
on.He concl ude that
simult
aneouslyusingRVandLOOCVmodelappr oachbui l
dsconf i
dencei nthevalue
ofpredi
cti
oniftheyy ieldsimil
arforecast
, t
heobservati
onal ensemblesforstati
sti
cal
 predi
ctioni
suni queandt hehighqual i
tylocalandnat i
onalpredict i
oncapacity
shouldhavesigni
ficantbenef
ici
alsoci
etali
mpl icati
ons.
inpart
icul
arl
y,f orecasti
ngof
seasonalanomaliesatr egi
onalandnationallev elandmonthlyrai
nf allatspecif
ic
l
ocali
tieswit
husabl eski l
lcoul
dpl ayakeyr olet omini
mizedamagi ngef f
ectof
recur
ri
ngdroughtandr iskmanagementinEthiopia.

6.Hav
ethesebeensuppor
tedbyt
heaut
hor
'sanal
yses,
argument
s,f
indi
ngsorev
idence?
Myanswerisy
es

7.Whatar
ethest
rengt
hsoft
hear
ti
cle?

Themet hodol
ogyandusingtwomodel
s(LOOCV,RV)approachsi
mult
aneousl
ybui
l
d
confi
dencetomi ni
mizeerr
or,t
hewaygi
vingev
idencedependondat
ahaveandusi
ng
di
ffer
entstati
sti
calmult
imodel
s.

8.Whatar
etheweaknessesoft
hear
ti
cle?

Theweaknessoft hi
sarti
clethedatacoll
ecti
ngdependi
ngonlyonhighl
ypopulat
edarea
andregi
onalsuscepti
bil
i
tyofdrought(combolcha)anddependi
ngonlyonthr
eeregi
on
thi
sregi
oncouldnotrepresentstherestsev
enregionofthecount
ry.