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Astrometeorology: An option to improve the accuracy of numerical daily

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 Journal of Agrometeorology 19 (Special Issue - AGMET 2016) : 20 -211 (October 2017)

Astrometeorology: An option to improve the accuracy of

numerical daily rainfall forecast of Tamil Nadu

GA.DHEEBAKARAN*, S.ARULPRASAD, S.KOKILAVANI and S.PANNEERSELVAM

Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, India.
*Email: gadheebakaran@tnau.ac.in

ABSTRACT
A study was conducted at Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,
Coimbatore, during 2015–16 to improve the accuracy of numerical model rainfall forecast using astrometeorological
principles. Daily rainfall forecast were developed for each one location from seven agro climatic zones of Tamil
Nadu, through different source and methods viz., WRF (numerical model), astrometeorology (planet), probability, a
private agency forecast and hybrid forecast (superimposing astro and probability forecast on WRF) and were
compared using forecast accuracy ratio and critical success index. In general, irrespective locations and seasons, the
hybrid forecast had higher forecast accuracy (0.75 to 0.88) and critical success index (0.56 to 0.76). Among the
different individual forecasts, the astrometeorological forecast had highest forecast accuracy (0.74 to 0.87) and
critical success index (0.52 to 0.71). The study concluded that, astrometeorology could be a good option for alternate
forecasting method to numerical weather forecast and hybrid forecast developed by integrating astrometeorology,
numerical and probability methods will improve the rainfall forecast accuracy and critical success index, in turn will
increase the usability of forecast in agriculture.
[

Keywords: Astrometeorology, Numerical weather prediction, integrated forecast

Medium range weather forecast, particularly
rainfall information for next few days have greater
impact in agricultural operations of India, where
more than 55 per cent of agriculture is rainfed.The
forecast with higher accuracy could help the farmer to
plan their farm operation in advance and make necessary
arrangements accordingly, would reduce the weather
based risks. In Tamil Nadu, North East Monsoon (NEM)
is the major rainy season, is mostly associated with,
formation of trough of low, easterly waves, low pressure
area, cyclonic circulation and cyclonic storms. Unlike
South West Monsoon, the rainfall forecast during NEM
become critical and lesser accuracy in forecast cause
severe economic loss to resource poor farmers.
At present, numerical weather prediction
(NWP) models are being used popularly for the
development of medim range forecast. Even with the
use of advanced modelling, the accuracy of NWP is
nearly 60 to 70 per cent as India is nearer to the
equator where as, in sub tropical regions the
forecasting accuracy meets above 90 per cent. In
India, our fore fathers used natural phenomenon like
animal behavior, wind movement, cloud patterns,
planetary positions, nakshatra (star) to predict
weather. Astrometeorology is a great science relating
weather and position of astronomical bodies like stars
and planet. The astrology methods enshrined in
ancient texts are being followed till date in some
places to guesstimate the mysterious trends of rainfall
and on the whole of the weather. Weather lore has
thus remained an important form of local forecasting
in many areas through centuries (Burghart, 2000).
Varahmihir postulated different principles for the
prediction of rainfall during 505-587 AD. Among various
astrometeorological methods for rainfall forecasting, the
Antariksha (sky observation), Parashara’s (position ofsun
and moon), BrihatSamhita’s seasonal rainfall forecast
(occurance of full moon)techniquesare most popular. Rig
Veda and Upanishadas contain discussion about the cloud
formation and rain. (Varshneya et al., 2011).
A great deal of trustworthiness is still placed
by some individuals on astrology even today. The
astrometeorological calendars were already developed
in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala
and they are very useful in precisely predicting seasonal
rainfall.The higher seasonal forecast accuracy (50 -
85%) of astrometeorology were prooven by many
scientist (Tripathi, 1996 and Varshneyaet al., 2009).The
astrometeorological calendars are already developed in
Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala and
they are useful in precisely predicting seasonal rainfall. A
preliminary study on astrometeorological forecast using
ephimerides (planet position from the earth) during 2012
to 2015 by first authorof this paper had resulted with an
activity chart of planet, provides a great opportunity
for astrometeorology in daily weather forecast with
higher accuracy.
Recently, many scientific forums have
suggested to integrate output of two or more weather
forecasting methods to increase the forecast
accuracy.Mechanisms of integrating both traditional
and scientific weather forecast systems would
improve understanding of uncertainties, as well as
form a basis for fitting scientific forecasts into
206
existing decision processes of farmers (Robinson
KnuthiaNaugi, 2002). In this context, a study was
conducted at Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil
Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, during 2015 -
2016 to improve the accuracy of medium range rainfall
forecast bydeveloping a hybrid forecast through
integration of numerical model, astrometeorological and
probability method rainfall forecasts.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Daily rainfall forecast for the study period
from October 2017 to May 2016 were developed through
different source and methods viz., Weather Research
Forecast (WRF, numerical model), astrometeorological
forecast (planet influence on weather) and probability
(chance of occurrence of rainfall over the past) methods.
Output from these three methods were super imposed on
one another to develop hybrid forecast.
Daily rainfall forecast were developed for
each one location of seven agro climatic zones of Tamil
Nadu viz., Cauvery Delta zone (CDZ, Thiruverumbur,
10.7516° N x 78.8291 °E), Hilly Zone (HZ,
Udhagamandalam, 11.4064°Nx 76.6932°E), High
Rainfall Zone (HRZ, Thiruveattaru, 08.4430° N x
77.3060° E), North Eastern Zone (NEZ, Sriperumbudur,
12.9670° N x 79.9420°E), North Western Zone (NWZ,
Pappireddipatti, 11.9120° N x78.3700°E), Southern Zone
(SZ, Aruppukottai, 09.5030oN x 78.0500oE), Western
Zone (WZ, Coimbatore, 11.0200oN x 76.9710°E).
Numerical Weather Forecast (NWF)
Medium range rainfall forecast for next six
days of selected locations were developed daily from
GFS data input in WRF model with 3 nested domain
@ 27km, 9km and 3km resolutions. Though the
NWF was developed for 6 days, rainforecast of next
day was considered for this study.
Probability method
Chance of daily rainfall occurrence of the
seven selected locations were calculated by using
past 35 years rainfall data in TNAU weather soft. The
daily data for 35 years were arranged sequentially
day as row and year as column. The percent of
chances for rainfall occurrence was calculated as
detailed below and the results were expressed in per
cent. The day was considered for calculation only
when rain day was above 50 per cent and rainy day
was above 30 per cent.
Percent of No. of years with rainfall >0.0
rainday = mm on particular day
occurrence Total Number of Years
October 2017
Astrometeorology
Rainfall prediction using astrometeorology
were done once in a week for next seven days and all the
seven locations. The position of planets from the observer
location and the conjunction between two or more planets
were taken into account for rainfall prediction.Alcyone
Ephemeris software was used for calculating the
ephemeris or planet position from each location.
Information on planetary influence on rainfall were
collected from many literatures and major information
were taken from “A basic guide to Astro
Meteorology” of Kim Farnal (2005) at http://
www.skyscript.co.uk/meteorology1.htmla and “Weather
forecasting course” of Carolyn Egan (2014) at
http://www.weathersage.com. In general, the planets viz.,
Venus, Neptune and Saturn are considered as positive for
rainfall, the Mars and Uranus are considered as negative
for rainfall, where as the Mercury and Jupiter have varied
influence depending on its position to the earth. The
azimuth and strength of planet were super imposed with
activeness chart developed by the first author of this
research paper during the preliminary study period of
2012-15. Theprinciple of the activeness chart is that
“planet are not always have influence on the weather of a
location and the influence may be positive or negative or
restricted due to its angle to that location”. According to
their angle, the activeness of planet on weather of
particular location is classified as negative, inactive,
active, highly active and rule. For example Venus,
the rain influencing planet has positive activeness in
angle ranged between 1 and 90, 181 and 360. It has
negative activeness in angle between 91and 180.
During that positive period it has more influence on
rainfall process of particular location, accordingly to
their strength. It can be easily observable that, if the
sun is negative for a location, that period we could
observe the lesser brightness than normal.
Hybrid weather forecast
Hybrid weather forecast is developed by
combining different source and method of forecastsvis.,
probability method, numerical weather forecast and
astrometeorological method. This was done to identify the
possibility of increasing the accuracy of forecast. In this
process, the rule for forecasting rain was “atleast two
methods must had given with rain in forecast”. After
receiving forecast from all the three methods, hybrid
forecast was developed daily and compared for its
accuracy with other individual forecasts.
Verification of weather forecast
The accuracy of rainfall forecast of different
methods viz, probability, numerical weather forecast,
astrometeorological forecast and hybrid forecast were
verified with actually observed rainfall. Each location
was varified individually. During this study, the total
duration of eight months from October 2015 to May
Vol. 19, Special Issue (AGMET 2016) 207

2016was divided into three season viz., North East ratio score (Hit score) and critical success index (threat
Monsoon (NEM, Oct’15 – Dec’15), winter (Jan.’16 – score)developed through contingency table approach
Feb.‘16) and summer (Mar.‘16 – May ‘16) and the were used to verify the forecast accuracy.
forecast was verified seasonally. The forecast accuracy
Contingency table approach 0.64and 0.82 in WRF, Astrometeorology, probability
A daily contingency table was formed as and hybrid forecast, respectively. The mean critical
below for further analysis using methodology described success index during NEM was 0.58, 0.62, 0.31 and
by Wilks (2006). 0.67 in WRF, Astrometeorology, probability and hybrid
forecast, respectively. The results inferred that, among
Where, the three individual forecast methods, the
Predicted Y = Yes rain; N astrometeorological forecast recorded highest forecast
Observed = No rain; Z = accuracy (74 to 87%) and critical success indices (52 to
No rain Rain No of correct 71%). This higher accuracy of astrometeorological
predictions of no forecast was supported by many earlier research and the
No rain Z(NN) F(NY) rain; accuracy obtained by the earlier researches were
F = No. of False between 53 and 86.4 per cent (Tripathi, 1996;
Rain M(YN) H(YY) alarms; M = No. Ramakrishna, 2006; Sivaprakasam and Kanakasabai,
of misses, 2009)
H = No. of hits
Skill scores observed from the study indicatted
Forecast accuracy ratio score or Hit score It is the that, irrespective location and seasons, the hybrid
ratio of correct forecasts to the total number of forecasts. forecast was resulted with higher forecast accuracy (75
It varies from 0 to 1 with 1 indicating perfect to 88%) and critical success indices (56 to 76%). This
forecast.The score was expressed between 0 and 1 and confirmed the advantage of integration of different
higher value, more will be accuracy. methods of forecast increased the accuracy over other
individual forecast. Being a component in hybrid
Correct Forecast (CF)
Forecast accuracy ratio = forecast, astrometeorology was the main reason for
Total Forecast (N) increased accuracy of hybrid forecast. This was
supported by the output of one day workshop on
H+Z YY + NN “Relevance of Ancient wisdom on weather forecasting
= for improving agro advisories” held at CRIDA during
Z+F+M+H NN+NY+YN+YY 2006. The workshop was concluded with a note that by
Critical success index or the Threat Score combining the effects of both indigenous and scientific
weather forecast methods will improve the opportunities
It is a measure of relative forecasting accuracy. towards their application.
It varies from 0 to 1 and the 1 indicates perfect forecast.
It is defined as the ratio of the number of hits (correct Among the three seasons, the accuracy was
event forecast) to thecorrect and incorrect events. higher during the winter or summer than the NEM. This
was due to more number of non rainy days during
Correct Forecast (CF) winter and summer and right prediction of non rainy day
Critical success index = by all the forecast. Forecast of these periods were
Correct + In correct
insignificant to agriculture purpose, except extreme
H YY events and soil water conservation. Whereas, the critical
= success indices were higher in NEM than summer and
F+M+H NY+YN+YY
winter, which confirmed the increased correct rainfall
The results obtained from the studies were prediction during NEM and decreased false alarms. The
detailed and discussed in the following chapter. increased critical success indices are most wanted for
agriculture purpose than higher forecast accuracy. The
improvement in critical success indices in hybrid
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION forecast is mainly due to integration of astrometeorology
Skill score viz., forecast accuracy score and with WRF, and this encourages the usability of
critical success index of different rainfall forecast astrometeorological forecast. This was well said before
sources and methods observed during NEM, winter and by Robinson KnuthiaNaugi (2002) that, integration of
summer for all the seven Agro Climate Zones were both traditional and scientific weather forecast systems
depicted in Table 1 to 2 and figure 1 to 8. The mean would improve understanding of uncertainties, as well
forecast accuracy index observed during the major as form a basis for fitting scientific forecasts into
agricultural season of Tamil Nadu, NEM was 0.73, 0.80, existing decision processes of farmers.
208 October 2017

Table 1 Forecast accuracy of different rainfall forecast methods and sources

Agro Climate Zones
Season & Method CDZ HZ HRF NEZ NWZ SZ WZ Mean
North East Monsoon
WRF 0.73 0.66 0.73 0.83 0.75 0.68 0.75 0.73
Astrometeorology 0.79 0.75 0.80 0.87 0.85 0.74 0.77 0.80
Probability 0.68 0.60 0.64 0.68 0.55 0.61 0.71 0.64
Hybrid 0.79 0.78 0.82 0.88 0.88 0.75 0.84 0.82
Mean 0.73 0.69 0.73 0.79 0.75 0.69 0.75 0.73
Winter
WRF 1.00 0.92 0.90 0.97 1.00 0.87 0.97 0.95
Astrometeorology 1.00 0.88 0.83 0.97 1.00 0.87 0.95 0.93
Probability 1.00 0.87 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.00 0.98 0.97
Hybrid 1.00 0.92 0.95 1.00 1.00 0.97 1.00 0.98
Mean 1.00 0.89 0.89 0.97 1.00 0.91 0.95 0.95
Summer
WRF 0.90 0.65 0.70 0.96 0.89 0.89 0.78 0.82
Astrometeorology 0.89 0.71 0.75 0.94 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.84
Probability 0.86 0.64 0.63 0.92 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.81
Hybrid 0.93 0.70 0.75 0.98 0.91 0.93 0.92 0.88
Mean 0.90 0.67 0.71 0.94 0.89 0.88 0.84 0.83

Table 2 Critical Success Indices of different rainfall forecast methods and sources
Agro Climate Zones
Season & Method
CDZ HZ HRF NEZ NWZ SZ WZ Mean
North East Monsoon
WRF 0.50 0.54 0.62 0.67 0.63 0.50 0.57 0.58
Astrometeorology 0.56 0.62 0.67 0.71 0.71 0.52 0.57 0.62
Probability 0.46 0.42 0.50 0.19 0.05 0.31 0.25 0.31
Hybrid 0.60 0.68 0.70 0.74 0.76 0.56 0.65 0.67
Mean 0.49 0.56 0.59 0.56 0.54 0.47 0.51 0.53
Winter
WRF 0.00 0.38 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.14
Astrometeorology 0.00 0.36 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.11
Probability 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hybrid 0.00 0.38 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.25
Mean 0.00 0.30 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.11
Summer
WRF 0.47 0.40 0.40 0.50 0.33 0.41 0.29 0.40
Astrometeorology 0.50 0.43 0.43 0.50 0.38 0.44 0.32 0.43
Probability 0.09 0.31 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09
Hybrid 0.54 0.43 0.43 0.60 0.38 0.50 0.42 0.47
Mean 0.39 0.38 0.34 0.39 0.29 0.31 0.25 0.33
Vol. 19, Special Issue (AGMET 2016) 209

Figure 1- 4 Forecast accuracy and critical success indices of CDZ, HZ, HRZ and NEZ
210 October 2017

Figure 5 - 8 Forecast accuracy and critical success indices of NWZ, SZ, WZ and TN
 Vol. 19, Special Issue (AGMET 2016)
Though the probability method had lesser
forecast accuracy and critical indices, inclusion of
probability method has improved the hybrid forecast
accuracy and critical success indices during NEM
monsoon.
Among the different locations, during NEM,
the astrometeorological forecast’s accuracy and
critical indices were higher in Sriperumbudhur (NEZ,
0.87 & 0.71), followed by Pappiredipatti (NWZ, 0.85
& 0.71), Thiruvattaru (HRZ, 0.80 & 0.67),
Thiruverumbur (CDZ, 0.79 & 0.56), Thondamuthur
(WZ, 0.77 & 0.56), Udhagamandalam (HZ, 0.75 &
0.62) and Aruppukottai (SZ, 0.74 & 0.52). Where as,
the hybrid forecast’s accuracy and critical indices
were higher in Pappiredipatti (NWZ, 0.88 & 0.76),
followed by Sriperumbudhur (NEZ, 0.88 & 0.74),
Thondamuthur (WZ, 0.84 & 0.65), Thiruvattaru
(HRZ, 0.82 & 0.70), Thiruverumbur (CDZ, 0.79
&0.60), Udhagamandalam (HZ, 0.78 & 0.68) and
Aruppukottai (SZ, 0.75 & 0.56). The variation in the
forecast accuracy due to location could not be
supported at present and need to be studied in future.
CONCLUSION
Study on the forecast accuracy of different
methods of forecast concluded that, astrometeorology
had high rainfall forecast accuracy (0.74 to 0.87) and
critical success index (0.52 to 0.71), could be a good
option for alternate forecasting method to numerical
weather forecast. And also, the hybrid forecast
developed by integrating the astrometeorology with
numerical weather forecasting and probability
method had improved rainfall forecast accuracy (0.75
to 0.88) and critical success index of the forecast(0.56
to 0.76). Hence, by combining the astrometeorology
with other methods of forecast will increase usability
of forecast in agriculture by reducing the false
alarms.
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