Brain Drain

The Beirut explosion is the last straw for most young, educated Lebanese – they’re
looking for anywhere to leave to with the country on the brink of collapse.
Schlein, L. (8/2020). Lebanon Faces Brain Drain in Wake of Beirut Disaster. Retrieved September 25,
2020, from https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/lebanon-faces-brain-drain-wake-beirut-disaster

Lebanon was in dire straits before last week’s blast in Beirut that shredded the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of
thousands of people. The country is in meltdown as it struggles to survive an economic and political

crisis, exacerbated by the COVID-19 health crisis. COVID-19 is the disease caused by the coronavirus. Heiko Wimmen heads the Iraq, Syria,
Lebanon project for the International Crisis Group. He said the Lebanese state has been hollowed out by decades of corruption and patronage, and this has
undermined due process and any sense of accountability. A woman walks past a damaged area in the aftermath of a massive explosion in Beirut, Lebanon, Aug. 13,
2020. He said the Beirut disaster has simply compounded these perennial problems. He told VOA the overwhelming despair that exists
in the country is prodding many people to think about leaving. “Everybody is now talking about
leaving. I mean, really, everybody," Wimmen said. "That is very understandable. I think there are still a lot who would stay if there was hope.
I think that is the key word here, which is hope, if there is some kind of prospect that things can get better.” Lebanon has a highly educated,

skilled, professional population. Many people have university degrees, second passports and
relatives who live abroad. Wimmen said many people can use their networks of personal and professional contacts to help them circumvent
migration obstacles created by the European Union. He said those Lebanese who emigrate are usually very successful and contribute a lot to the societies they
foreign countries will certainly benefit from the anticipated Lebanese brain drain, to
enter. He said

the detriment of their homeland. “Absolutely, this is going to happen ," Wimmen said. "It means that
the country may very well lose a generation that it needs to rebuild and that it also would need[s]
to achieve the political change that is necessary.” Wimmen said he does not believe the kind of political
change that is needed is possible with the existing structure. He said the people who could possibly
effect the reforms needed to change the society for the better are precisely those who will have left. If
too many of these people leave, he warns, Lebanon’s future will be bleak, indeed.

Pre-pandemic, the Middle East was on its way to stabilizing but is still precarious.
Sustained stability requires an educated youth population which the Aff will
undoubtedly drain. ME is a cornerstone for global economic stability.

Ahmad, A. (2020, September 23). The Middle East is a growing marketplace, not just a war zone. Retrieved
September 26, 2020, from https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/the-middle-east-is-a-
growing-marketplace-not-just-a-war-zone/

For the casual observer, the seemingly endless negative stories about the Middle East are reasons enough to avoid investing in the region. But a value investor
knows that this can be the best time to buy. I spent fifteen years as a venture capital and growth investor in the Middle East, and what I saw in terms of economic
opportunities and social impact deserves just as much attention as the security issues that tend to dominate US government and private sector engagement in that
part of the world. For many Americans, getting out of the Middle East and refocusing efforts on pressing matters at home is not just ideal but a necessity, especially
given the economic meltdown brought on by the coronavirus pandemic. Looking at the situation in Yemen, Syria, or Iraq, it can be tempting to write off the Middle
East as a place mired in intractable conflict and systemic problems. However, the region is vast and complex, and outsiders who do not fully understand its nations
The United States has built strong
or peoples overlook the nuances of the nearly twenty countries that make up the Middle East.

relationships in the Middle East through security, economic, and political engagement over the
past decades. In turn, most regional governments are reliable allies and their people have a fondness for American innovation, creativity, and ingenuity. If
the United States disengages at the very moment that the region is on the cusp of a significant transformation, American investments made in blood and treasure
will go to waste and we will miss a significant strategic opportunity. The decline in oil prices since 2014 and the economic devastation due to the pandemic is
causing the region’s leadership to consider and take bold, transformational action to redefine and diversify their economies. It is in the United States’ best interest
to work closely with regional partners not only for the latter’s prosperity and stability but for ours as well. The United States government, US corporations, and US
investors should consider the following factors as they look to the region: the region’s potential to rival Europe in terms of being a marketplace for goods and
services, the role the region plays in terms of keeping energy prices stable and reasonable, counterbalancing steps international competitors such as China are
The
taking to expand influence in the region, and the fact that security without economic prosperity is fragile. A growing market for US goods and services

Middle East is composed of many countries across the wealth spectrum, from the poorest such as Yemen to the richest like Qatar. It boasts one of
the youngest and fastest-growing populations in the world that is expected to reach
approximately 580 million people by 2030. It has the largest repository of oil and gas in the
world. It has four of the ten most significant sovereign wealth funds in the world . It is one of the
top ten holders of US treasuries. For all these reasons and more, the Middle East should be viewed through not only a security and energy prism,
but an economic one as well. Today, of course, the Middle East is nowhere near as important to the US economically as Europe is. But a transformation of the
Middle East can eventually put it on par with Europe in terms of economic partnership with the United States. While Europe represents only 6.9 percent of the
world population today, its GDP contribution to the world economy stands at 15.6 percent—over twice its population. On the other hand, the Middle East has 6
percent of the world’s population and accounts for only 4.6 percent of world GDP. There is a lot of room to grow. As we have witnessed in China in the past two
decades, accelerating population productivity can reap significant rewards. The young and growing population of the Middle East entering significant household
formation in the next decade can be an economic powerhouse. These favorable demographics can lead to significant consumption-led economic growth only if
coupled with appropriate job creation levels. A more pragmatic and targeted strategic investment approach is required through public and private partnerships to
empower entrepreneurs, women, and youth. Many companies have already made a bet on this investment thesis through substantial acquisitions, including Coca-
Cola, Amazon, and Uber. Financial institutions such as Blackstone, Carlyle, Blackrock, Goldman Sachs, and a host of other investment banks and hedge funds have
reaped billions from regional sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and high net-worth individuals. Luxury groups like Cartier, LVMH, Hermes, Richmond, and Rolex
have invested heavily to reach well-heeled consumers in Middle East markets. Energy groups such as Total, ExxonMobil, Shell, and BP enjoy large contracts in the
region. Boeing, Airbus, Lockheed Martin, Bechtel, Halliburton, and others have been doing a brisk business in aerospace, security systems, and infrastructure.
Twitter, Facebook, Amazon, and Apple have seen significant market share gains and profits from the Middle East’s highly penetrated mobile markets. Key
corporations that have put in the effort to navigate and meaningfully enter these markets have reaped attractive returns. They went beyond the negative headlines
to invest in the long term. Middle East markets are ripe for enduring economic growth if there is a willingness to invest in the people of the region. Stable and fair oil
prices are important for US economic health The stability of global energy prices will continue to impact the US economy for the foreseeable future. Despite the
rhetoric regarding renewable energy and energy conservation, demand has been relatively stable, and 80 percent of the world’s energy supply continues to come
from fossil fuels. The US shale industry has been a strategic success from a supply perspective but not without high volatility. In a boom and bust cycle reminiscent
of the airline industry, companies have gained and lost fortunes thanks to oil price fluctuations. The latest decline from the Saudi-Russia oil price standoff in April
was a case in point. A wave of bankruptcies and bond downgrades have bogged down the industry, causing economic damage and increasing unemployment.
Counter to the conventional wisdom that low prices are a boon for the US economy, they are a bust for the US energy industry. While the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC) may no longer be relevant in controlling prices, the institution still holds sway. It has expanded its influence through various cooperation
agreements with non-OPEC countries, such as Russia and Mexico, known as OPEC+. In fact, during the OPEC+ meeting in April, the Group of Twenty joined with
Brazil, Norway, and Canada in also agreeing to oil production cuts. The United States should join this informal group to ensure a balanced oil market. In terms of US
national energy policies, the Middle East will continue to be important. Given the outsized reserves and oil extraction costs of the
oil-producing countries in the Middle East, the region plays a critical role in balancing global energy
markets and helping maintain a stable and fair price. Building a counterbalance to China is key to global stability China is filling
many vacuums created by US disengagement or neglect. From Pakistan to Iran to Nigeria, China is striking economic deals to bolster its international power. It has
established itself in the Middle East and continues to expand its connections and power. China is already the UAE’s second-largest trading partner and the recent
nuclear deal between China and Saudi Arabia is the tip of the iceberg. The complimentary large-scale initiatives of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Saudi Vision
2030 are leading to further economic integration between the two nations. China has not only dazzled countries with its mega infrastructure projects and loans, but
has also made inroads through its technology companies such as Alibaba and Huawei. Alipay is as pervasive as Apple Pay in the Middle East while Huawei is winning
the 5G network upgrade war in the Gulf and beyond. In addition to corporate activity, Chinese investors are beginning to invest in regional startups. While venture
capital activity is still limited, Chinese investment firms are becoming increasingly active in key markets. Concerning energy, China and other Asian countries make
up a majority of OPEC exports. Given the projects and ties mentioned above, it is only natural that China is pursuing closer economic relations with Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) countries. China will be the clear beneficiary should the United States continue to limit its engagement in the Middle East, adding to its sphere of
influence. When China expands its economic relationships further, OPEC will likely keep Chinese interests in mind during the next oil crisis. US support to strengthen
Middle Eastern economies can counterbalance the rising economic power of China that has already engulfed most of Asia and Africa and is knocking on the doors of
Security without economic prosperity is fragile Hopelessness and youth are a dangerous
Europe.

combination. This explosive mixture combusted in the 2011 Arab Spring. While it may seem that the call for change has lost
steam, it simmers in many corners of the Middle East. And, though most governments in the Middle East are authoritarian, there is
increasing pressure to stay attuned to the people’s needs to maintain power. As the social contract between rulers and the citizenry
continues to evolve, ensuring an engaged and productive populace will be critical to stability . While political
reform is unlikely in the near term, reforming the economy to decrease unemployment and increase prosperity is high on the agenda. Most countries in the Middle
East are plagued with a large public sector and a weak private sector. This economic mix is unsustainable and will lead to failed states. Public sector finances are
under extreme pressure even in the oil-exporting countries of the Gulf. Most of these economies require a significant transformation. Practically, this means more
open and dynamic economies to drive private sector development and investment. Governments must start by changing antiquated laws and regulations and by
investing in strategic growth sectors to drive economic diversification and job creation. In the meantime, unleashing the population’s power by empowering
entrepreneurs, women, and youth will have a marked improvement on economic growth. As the Middle East makes this delicate transition from public largess to
private sector development, the United States should support efforts to drive economic prosperity. Entrepreneurship,
regional economic integration, educational transformation, women’s economic participation, and fostering innovation are all worthwhile pursuits that will
The lack
ultimately lead to economic growth and job creation. Investing in security is necessary, but not at the expense of investing in economic prosperity.

of economic diversification is as dangerous as the security threats posed by certain non-state

and state actors in the region. Indeed, the most significant threat for most Middle East countries
is a disgruntled, young, and growing population more attuned to the world around them than
 any generation before and impatient for basic educational and employment opportunities. A more
hopeful future By changing the terms of engagement with the Middle East and prioritizing investment in the economic and human prosperity of the region, US
national interests will be better served. The pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to take unprecedented actions to build more dynamic and agile
economies. In partnership with regional players, the United States, along with its allies, can shape a better future for the Middle East and its people.

COVID is a huge blow to oil prices, placing Lebanese economy on the brink of collapse.

Jones, R., & Abdulaziz, D. (2020, May 05). Saudi Arabia, Hit With Oil Collapse and Coronavirus, Tosses
Lifelines. Retrieved September 25, 2020, from https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-hit-with-oil-
collapse-and-coronavirus-tosses-lifelines-11588671001

Nearly two months ago, before the global spread of the coronavirus, Riyadh made a bold gambit to slash oil prices. The Saudis knew it was going to hit their bottom
line – their break-even oil price to balance the budget – but they did not foresee such a dramatic slump in demand as the global economy ground to a halt. Economists
described the impact on Middle Eastern economies as a “dual shock”. Last week, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, the US benchmark for the commodity, entered
negative price territory for the first time in history, economically impacting Gulf oil producers yet again, albeit in a lesser, but third shock “When it became clear how
bad the pandemic was, they [the Saudis] expected it to go from bad to worse, but it went from worse to terrible as they didn’t see last week’s move,” Mike Lynch,
With storage supply in the United States nearing capacity, and
from US consultancy Seer Energy, told Middle East Eye.

demand for oil down globally by 9.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020, the futures markets panicked and prices of WTI
dropped below zero for May. Brent crude, the dominant price indicator, also dropped, while the price of oil

for the Opec countries’ 14 types of crude also spiralled downwards . “It is a new kind of shock, that is
unprecedented," Kate Dourian, regional manager for Middle East and Gulf States at the World Energy Council, told MEE. "Some Gulf countries are better placed than
others, but it’s hard to say how anyone can get over this. Look at Saudi Arabia, the war in Yemen, and the business they will lose. It’s a mess.” Saudi Arabia’s move
Under an agreement hashed out in early April between
in March upped the kingdom’s production to 13 million bpd.

global oil producers, the price was supposed to stabilise, and Riyadh agreed to lower
production by 3.3 million bpd to prevent the market being flooded with cheap oil, and keep US
shale oil producers, which require a higher price per barrel to be competitive, in business. The new situation has resulted in land storage being
filled to the gunnels around the world – India is at 95 percent capacity – while oil tankers that were destined for scrapyards are being hauled back into service as
storage vessels. “Unless the global economy recovers quickly, you are going to have storage tanks full and people will stop taking oil, and if you don’t have
guaranteed customers, producers will lose out," said Lynch. "If no one wants the oil, it will have to be shut in.” Capping, or closing, oil wells, and uncapping them, is
not an overly complicated process for most Gulf oil producers, with crude easily accessible – a prime reason for a third of the world’s oil being produced in the region.
“Saudi Arabia and Iraq have the cheapest oil around,” said Lynch. Saudi Arabia is still extracting oil from five colossal fields that have been in operation for around
70 years. However, as demand for oil has risen over the past two decades, and technology has improved, hard to access oil was able to be extracted from old, as well
as unconventional, oil fields through enhanced oil-recovery techniques. The further price drop will make such fields commercially unviable, impacting producers
Oil infrastructure projects are
across the region that have scrambled to extract as much oil as they can to earn much-needed export dollars.

consequently being cancelled or put on ice throughout the Gulf, while international oil
companies are reviewing their operations with an eye to downscale . “You have companies like [Italy’s] ENI
looking at their exposure in the Middle East, and people are pulling out of Iraq," said Dourian. "Yet there still needs to be certain production, and there is a certain cost
There is also the risk of coronavirus lockdowns preventing oil workers from
to maintaining fields.”

conducting work at fields, refineries and associated infrastructure, on top of the risk that
workers come down with the virus. In Mozambique, two-thirds of the country’s confirmed coronavirus cases are at the French company
Total’s $23bn natural gas project. “The industry requires hundreds or thousands of people in one place, there are logistical issues, and health considerations of staff
not able to work. You are going to have some delays,” said Dourian. The drop in oil demand is expected to slash profits for the global energy sector by 60 percent.
Saudi Arabia is in a particularly tricky position, being blamed for the instability in the oil markets following its March move. “The Saudis miscalculated in thinking
they wouldn’t get blamed for crashing oil prices, even though in part that’s due to the drop in demand," Kristian Ulrichsen, a Baker Institute fellow for the Middle
East at Rice University in the US. "They are an easy political target.” The blame may ultimately lie with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto
ruler of the kingdom. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman admitted in a recent interview that his older half brother, the crown prince, was behind the oil
production cut. “The person who came up with this idea was my boss, Prince Mohammed,” he said. The economic fallout for Saudi Arabia and its diversification
plans could also fall on bin Salman's shoulders. “[The crown prince] will be judged by whether he makes Saudis lives better off economically as he staked his
credibility as a transformative leader, promising that by 2030 life will improve,” said Ulrichsen. The creation of jobs for the Gulf’s large young population is essential,
and possible only through diversifying away from a reliance on the public sector, which is funded by oil revenues. In Kuwait, 78 percent of nationals work for the
state, and in Saudi Arabia 57 percent, according to the Arab Gulf States Institute. “You’re already seeing the Saudis cutting their expenses, raising debt, and reining in
spending at possibly the worse time, as fiscal stimulus is needed to support their people," said Dourian. "If they expect the private sector to pick up the slack in job
creation rather than the state, it is bad news.” Gulf economies had been floundering before the corovavirus crisis, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warning
in a February report that the region’s net wealth could turn negative in less than 14 years. “The IMF report said that at $20 a barrel, by 2027 the Gulf would become
poor, so just seven years from now!" Laury Haytayan, an oil and gas expert at the Natural Resource Governance Institute, told MEE. "Even if oil prices go up to $30,
it’s alarming for the region.” The IMF attributed the troubling future outlook to the weak implementation of diversification strategies, which Vision 2030, the Saudi
crown prince's plans to make the kingdom less reliant on oil, were expected to address. However, the policies, while coming far too late, have also focused on sectors
that have been heavily impacted by the coronavirus crisis, such as tourism, as well as heavy industry and petrochemicals. The report also noted the region’s drop in
fortunes due to the expected rise in renewable energy and reductions in demand for plastics, issues very much on the radar today. “The coronavirus is like a projection
of the future for oil-producing countries, as people are talking of oil demand peaking, environmental concerns and climate change, and it doesn’t look good for the
Middle East. It is a slap in the producers’ faces,” said Haytayan. Saudi Arabia, however, has ploughed ahead with investments in hydrocarbon related entities. In
 April, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) invested $1bn in four European oil companies while also buying a stake in the Carnival cruise liner company – cruise ships
use heavy fuel oil, with one ship emitting the same amount of pollution in a day as one million cars. “The PIF is essentially a personal tool of the crown prince, and he
has already shifted a lot of funds out of government structures to this vehicle," Eckart Woertz, director of the GIGA Institute of Middle East Studies, at the University
of Hamburg."All this money has gone to quite risky investments that have not paid out. I’m not sure it’s the time to buy cruise ship operators.” With the length of the
coronavirus lockdowns unknown, and economists amending their forecasts on almost a weekly basis, the Gulf states are going to have to borrow money to stay afloat.
Saudi Arabia announced it may borrow $58bn this year from the international markets, its biggest debt programme since 2016. Qatar has raised $10bn and Abu Dhabi
$7bn. As Gulf states tighten their belts, military expenditure has also been impacted, with the war in Yemen having cost Saudi Arabia some $5bn a month. “To what
extent does this explain Saudi Arabia wanting a ceasefire, with the war costing billions of dollars a month? They are trying to reallocate resources that are now more
The triple economic shock to the region may force Gulf rulers to step up to the
urgent,” said Ulrichsen.

plate. “The region is at a dangerous crossroads," said Haytayan. "There is either a doomsday scenario,
with the region plunged again into violence and crackdowns on dissidents , or governments act as real,
accountable governments that save their countries, and don’t act like fathers taking care of their kids.” 

The aff draws educated Lebanese immigrants to the US, triggering the aforementioned
economic collapse.

Stillman, B. (2018, October 03). Why Has America Been Such a Magnet for Immigrant Scientists? Retrieved
September 25, 2020, from https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/voices/why-has-america-been-such-a-
magnet-for-immigrant-scientists/

As a research and education institution that has shaped modern genetics since 1890, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory is proud of our association with three of these:
Max Delbrück and Salvador Luria, refugees from European fascism, and Richard Roberts, who hailed from England. Historically immigrants have made significant
scientific contributions to America, and the trend continues to the present day. “Immigrants have been awarded 39 percent, or 33 of 85, of the Nobel Prizes won by
Americans in Chemistry, Medicine and Physics since 2000,” noted a recent report from the National Foundation for American Policy. Why has America been such a
magnet for scientists? I am a scientist-immigrant to this country, but when I left Australia in the late 1970s, I frankly did not think of myself this way. Immigrants, I
imagined, were people fleeing economic, geographic or political adversity and seeking a better life in America. But in my case—as with so many thousands of others
The
—it wasn’t a matter of running away from something. Rather, it was a matter of what I was running toward. I came to the U.S. because of science.

opportunities in America to do basic research at the very highest possible level, and to be
among others with similar interests, ambitions and capabilities was the attraction . Most of the
scientist-immigrants to this country have come for the same reasons—because of the open
American culture that rewards excellence and does not impose restrictions based on prior
connections, social status, ethnicity or national origin. When I arrived as a postdoctoral fellow at Cold Spring Harbor
Laboratory in 1979, the scientific staff numbered little more than 100, and those not born here were more likely to have come from Great Britain than any other
nation. Today, CSHL’s 600 scientists are far more diverse, reflecting infusions of talent from all over the world, including from Asian nations. This is a natural
progression as countries strive to catch up to the U.S. to propel their economies, feed their peoples and enhance the lives of their citizens. While the U.S. should
appropriately be cognizant of threats of scientific and economic espionage, scientific cooperation will more likely generate trust and understanding and benefits for
all. About a dozen years ago, CSHL started a science conference program in Suzhou, China that parallels the meetings program that has existed at the Long Island,
New York campus since 1933. These international meetings have been very successful, attracting thousands of scientists annually from many countries to exchange
ideas in the biological, agricultural and medical sciences. In 2015, we started a DNA Learning Center for laboratory-based science education for middle and high
schools in Suzhou, as part of the international reach of DNA Learning Centers that CSHL started locally on Long Island 30 years ago. Indeed, DNA Learning Centers
are now in many countries and in a number of U.S. states. CSHL’s goal in these combined efforts expose students, teachers and scientists to the culture of the
scientific enterprise that has been so successful in the U.S. As globalization, ease of international transport, information technology and rising economic activity
provide opportunities for other nations to build their expertise in science and technology, America must continually reexamine its own role in the world. It would be
a grave error to close ourselves off from the rest of the world or to raise barriers to cooperation. The basis of our great strength is our culture of openness and
entrepreneurial spirit, a culture that defines the American enterprise, including its science. Preserving this culture is critical, and part of this requires that we
continue to welcome the best minds in the world to work and study here—for our benefit and for the world’s. 

Econ collapse leads to war, humanitarian crisis, conflict, other bad shit. Brain drain
also means there’s no way to recover.

Barnes-Dacey, J. (2020, July 02). Economic meltdown in the Middle East: How Europe can soften the
impact. Retrieved September 25, 2020, from
https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_economic_meltdown_in_the_middle_east_how_europe_can
_soften_the_i

It is hard to imagine that the suffering and despair across the Middle East could worsen. But across Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq a new economic unravelling is
continuing apace, threatening to throw the region into even deeper turmoil. In Lebanon and Syria state finances are collapsing
and hyper-inflation is setting in, while in Iraq a dramatic collapse in oil revenues has depleted
the budget. All these countries are suffering the debilitating economic effects of covid-19 and the ramifications of the United States’ maximum pressure
campaign against Iran. This interlinked economic unravelling is not just worsening the humanitarian

situation, with millions slipping into deep poverty, but is also likely to feed intensified social unrest, instability,
and possible state collapse and conflict. Europeans should urgently focus their attention on this economic implosion, which is likely to
increase regional instability and associated migration and terrorism flows. Europe is already the largest external donor to the region, as exemplified by last month’s
Brussels IV conference for Syria and the region, at which the European Union and member states committed €4.9 billion in new support. But such is the severity of
the situation – and its potential impact on European interests – that greater resources and focus are urgently needed. While some hope that this economic pressure
will help bring about long-overdue governance reform across all three countries, the stark reality is that local elites, who bear prime responsibility for the
deteriorating situation, remain focused on preserving their own interests rather than meeting the needs of their people. Europeans will need to navigate this core
dilemma while also working around a US policy that seeks to use intensifying economic pressure to dislodge Iranian influence. Syria is now ground zero for this
regional implosion. After decades of corrupt mismanagement by the Assad regime, nine years of conflict has brought the country to its knees. This vulnerability is
being exacerbated by covid-19, the deteriorating situation in neighbouring Lebanon, and tightening US sanctions. Since last year the Syrian pound has lost more
than 80 per cent of its value, sending the price of core goods soaring. The World Food Programme estimates that food prices have increased by 209 per cent over
The United Nations has warned of possible famine, with 9.3
the last year and 35 per cent over the past month alone.

million Syrians now food-insecure - an increase of 1.4 million over the past six months . More than 90
per cent of Syria’s population now live below the poverty line, with access to basic services extremely limited. Unemployment stands as high as 50 per cent and
there are few social safety nets. The implementation of intensified US sanctions under the Caesar Act will seriously impede even legitimate economic development.
Humanitarian inflows could also be restricted, even where sanctions exemptions exist, given the chilling nature of US measures. While the US government, in
particular, hopes that economic pressure will force Assad and Russia into significant political compromises to unlock international financing, this seems an unlikely
bet. Assad remains wholly focused on maintaining his grip on power, and the more likely scenario is that the regime’s predatory instincts become even more
pronounced, enabling its ongoing survival as the country crumbles around it. For its part, Lebanon is also close to the edge. Provoked by longstanding economic
mismanagement, but with pressures intensified by covid-19 and the secondary impact of economic pressures in Syria, Lebanon’s economy has gone into complete
freefall. The currency has lost 80 per cent of its value this year, provoking massive inflation, including a rise in food prices by as much as 200 per cent. The
International Monetary Fund (IMF), with which the government is negotiating a bailout package, estimates that the economy will shrink by 12 per cent this year.
The Lebanese are unable to access their savings, more than 35 per cent of the population are estimated to be unemployed, and 45 per cent could soon be living
below the poverty line. Even if Lebanon secures IMF support – though the political elite are dragging their feet over necessary reform, wary of measures that will
impact their own interests – this will come with severe austerity measures, which are likely to fuel further unrest given the lack of an adequate social safety net.
Economic implosion will further hollow
Meanwhile, the threat of new direct US sanctions targeting Hezbollah hangs over the country.

out immensely weak states, laying the ground for social unrest and possible intensified conflic t.
Then to the east is Iraq, whose economy has been hit by the double-whammy of covid-19 and the collapse in the price of oil, which accounts for 90 per cent of state
revenues. The government now oversees a significant budget deficit to cover its own $4.5 billon monthly running costs and pay the millions of Iraqis on the state
payroll. Youth unemployment stands at over 30 per cent, and the UN estimates that Iraq’s economy will shrink by nearly 10 per cent in 2020, with levels of poverty
doubling to 40 per cent. The finance minister has warned of an “existential economic situation” and it remains uncertain whether the state will be able to cover
salary payments over the coming months. To this backdrop Baghdad is under intense US pressure to reduce its dependence on Tehran. Iraq remains dependent on
short-term sanctions waivers to import much-needed electricity from Iran. While the most recent US exemption was granted for 120 days, as opposed to the
previous 30-day timeframe, Washington can be expected to turn the screw as Baghdad struggles to cut itself off from Iranian support. The new government is now
trying to push through reform measures, including cutting state salaries and accessing internal and external financing, but it is caught between immense internal
and international pressures. As in Lebanon and Syria there are significant interests working against the implementation of necessary structural reform in Iraq. Put
the wider region is engulfed in a devastating economic collapse that is pushing millions of
together,

people into humanitarian crisis and risks provoking wider forces of instability . Economic implosion will further
hollow out immensely weak states, laying the ground for social unrest and possible intensified conflict. Were covid-19 numbers to significantly increase in these
Those who can do so will flee,
conditions, the result would be disastrous given overstretched state resources and the lack of medical capacity.

prompting both new migration flows and a critical brain-drain of the middle classes needed to
construct a better – and stable – future across the region. Moreover, if recent decades are anything to go by, destabilising
forces linked to Iran and extremist groups will capably fill the vacuum despite US ambitions to the contrary.

COUNTERPLAN TEXT: The USFG should enforce a national standard for nursing
accreditation 
Competition:  Netbens, We don’t trigger the case turns or the brain drain Disad

Solvency
The major problem facing the nursing industry is lack of standardization in
accreditation, insiders call for national reform to fix problems in nursing. Jones-
Schenk and Leavitt 20 (https://www.statnews.com/2020/09/04/go-national-to-solve-looming-nursing-shortage/)
 nurses need our support now more than ever as they manage the frontlines in the fight against Covid-19, working long
hours and risking their own well-being to care for those who are sick. With nurses’ crucial work in the national spotlight, i t is time for
policymakers to address the long-anticipated nursing shortage that could leave the U.S.
unable to combat the next health crisis.  Predictions of a shortage of nearly half a million nurses due to retirements are
highlighted even more by the realities of this pandemic. An arcane tangle of state regulations is deepening the
existing nursing shortage and making it harder to fight the pandemic. It is time to sweep away
these unneeded regulations and turn instead to a national standard . The Covid-19 pandemic has made it
clear: America needs more nurses to meet urgent care needs, improve health care, and benefit Americans’ health.  Since the start of
the pandemic, we have seen states rescind, revise, or waive regulations related to licensing
nurses in response to Covid-19, showing that change is not only possible but can happen
swiftly. Take telehealth as an example. Once a minefield with regulations that varied from state to state, telehealth quickly became part of
the new normal. The elimination of state-by-state variability has supported a more consistent approach to delivering telehealth care across all
states.  Nurse licensing and education standards similarly vary state by state, and standardizing regulations that govern state-level nursing
education programs must be next.  In the late 1990s, all nurses began taking the same national licensing
exam, the NCLEX. Yet even now, every state board of nursing imposes unique education
requirements that a program of study must satisfy in order for its graduates to be eligible to take the exam. Even with the national
licensing standard, states still demand different requirements in areas such as curriculum, faculty, and simulation. These variations
add significant cost with no actual difference in the quality of licensed nurses or how their readiness to
practice is measured.  National accreditation is a proven method for determining the quality of
educational programs. Accreditors add value through deep expertise in curriculum design and
clinical education. National accreditation signals a program’s credibility in design and
delivery. It is used by every health profession in the United States — except nursing. Nursing is the
only health profession whose state licensing boards engage in educational oversight. Medicine, pharmacy, and all other health fields recognize
that licensing boards are not education experts.  Allowing state-by-state curriculum standards for nursing programs is a barrier to innovation
and modernization in nursing education, which is woefully behind in its use of technology, including simulation and other methods that advance
and optimize clinical learning. It is also a barrier to mobility for nurses. The Nurse Licensure Compact offers nurses mobility to practice across
only 34 states and U.S. territories. In the others, nurses must go through a relicensing process that limits their ability to practice in telehealth or
in border locations where they may be delivering care across state lines. While the National Council of State Boards of Nursing has done a great
deal of work to resolve this issue through the compact, this has done nothing to address the patchwork of nursing education approvals or the
inconsistency of education standards.  

Nurses/Healthcare 
Inherency: 
1. Non UQ – there’s a global nursing shortage. We’re not special. 

WHO. (2020, April 7). WHO and partners call for urgent investment in nurses. Retrieved September
25, 2020, from https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/07-04-2020-who-and-partners-call-for-
urgent-investment-in-nurses

The report, by the World Health Organization (WHO)  in partnership with the International Council of Nurses (ICN) and Nursing Now,
reveals that today, there are just under 28 million nurses worldwide. Between 2013 and 2018, nursing numbers
increased by 4.7 million. But this still leaves a global shortfall of 5.9 million - with the greatest gaps found
in countries in Africa, South East Asia and the WHO Eastern Mediterranean region as well as
some parts of Latin America. Revealingly, more than 80 per cent of the world’s nurses work in countries that are home to
half of the world’s population. And one in every eight nurses practices in a country other than the one where they were born or
trained. Ageing also threatens the nursing workforce: one out of six of the world’s nurses are expected to retire in the next 10 years. 
Solvency:
1. Doctors immigrating to the United States are literally being stolen from
countries that need them, this is especially bad because the US doesn’t
need them when they have students who can fill the gap now Skladany 20
(Martin Sklandy Sept. 2, 2020, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/stop-stealing-doctors-from-developing-countries/)

Every year, more than 4,000 foreign graduates of international medical schools come to the
United States for a residency program. They rarely return home to serve the countries that
raised and educated them. Meanwhile, more than 2,000 graduates from U.S. medical schools
each year are blocked from becoming doctors because there are not enough residency
programs for them to enter, and they cannot practice medicine without this training experience. A further 2,000
American graduates of international medical schools are also denied the opportunity to
practice medicine in the U.S. for the same reason.  As COVID-19 has inevitably spread to developing countries, this
policy will come to be seen for what it is: robbing developing countries of their desperately needed medical professionals. This must stop, even
though American medical care benefits from being able to take the best doctors for ourselves.  In the U.S., there is one doctor
per every 385 individuals. In South Asia, there is one physician for every 1,250 individuals . But
in Sub-Saharan Africa, on average there is one doctor per 5,000 people with some countries
faring far worse. For example, Tanzania has 1 doctor per 71,000 individuals. Roughly half of Sub-Saharan African
countries suffer a loss of more than 30 percent of the doctors they train. This equates to tens
of thousands of doctors. Roughly equal numbers of nurses from such countries also
immigrate to developed countries.  To be clear, while the U.S. accepts a significant number of
doctors from developing countries, some come to the U.S. from other advanced economies, which is much less concerning,
given that many European countries have a significantly higher number of doctor per capita than the U.S. Yet the number from
developed countries is small; for example, 21 percent of foreign-trained doctors in the U.S.
come from India, while only 3 percent come from Canada.  We also need more U.S. medical students each year,
more residency programs for them to enter and more clinical opportunities for them during medical school. While medical school and residency
spots are expanding, neither are growing quickly enough. Research by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) indicates the U.S.
will face a doctor shortage of up to 122,000 in 12 years. Recent draft legislation, the Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act, has proposed
increased funding for residency programs, which is a start. But we
must accept that it is unethical to steal doctors
from countries with greater need, especially given our vast financial resources and capable
student pool.  In 2010, the World Health Organization adopted a Global Code of Practice on the International Recruitment of Health
Personnel to discourage the recruitment of practitioners from developing countries with shortages. Yet its voluntary principles have largely
been ignored. As the worst offender, the U.S. should take the lead in reversing this practice. Of the nearly 650,000 foreign-born doctors in
developed countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 42 percent reside in the U.S.,
compared to 13 percent in the United Kingdom, the second highest destination (this figure also captures some children who immigrated at an
early age to OECD countries and individuals who migrated to an OECD country to study medicine). 

2. Turn – Aff makes nursing shortage worse. Foreign nurses just replace non-
foreign nurses. Cortes and Pan 14
Cortes and Pan 14 (Patricia Cortés is visiting scholar at the New England Public Policy
Centered, housed in the research department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston,
and is an assistant professor at the Boston University School of Management. Jessica
Pan is an assistant professor of economics at the National University of Singapore and a
research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. “Nurse Importation to
the United States and the Supply of Native Registered Nurses,” Federal Reserve Bank of
Boston, 7/31/14)
 Conclusion As healthcare becomes an even larger component of the U.S. economy, there is a pressing need to find long-term solutions to the recurring shortage of
healthcare workers. This paper explores the long-run consequences of hiring foreign nurses, a practice used extensively in the United States to combat nursing
shortages, even though it is typically argued for on the grounds that this is a temporary policy solution. In this paper, we make use of a variety of empirical strategies
and datasets to show that the importation of foreign nurses has large displacement effects on the labor supply of native nurses. We estimate that for
every
foreign nurse who migrates to a U.S. city, between 1-2 native RNs are displaced . These findings are corroborated by
data on who takes the nursing board exams. We find evidence that an increase in the outflow of foreign nurses to a state
reduces the number of prospective native nurses sitting for the NCLEX . Turning to the possible factors that might drive the
displacement of native nurses, we find little evidence that the displacement effects are driven by falling wages. We find some suggestive evidence that
foreign nurse migration may impact the perceived quality of the workplace environment ó native RNs in
California counties with a larger share of foreign nurses are more likely to report being dissatisfied with
the level of support they receive from other nurses and the quality of teamwork with their co-workers .
Our findings that foreign nurse migration has large displacement effects on the native nurse population
stands in contrast to the results from recent studies that focus on other skilled occupations . Kerr and Lincoln
(2010) examine the short-run effects of changes in the H-1B visa program and find limited evidence that immigrants in science and engineering reduce native
employment. If anything, they find that small crowding-in effects on native employment and patenting may exist. Hunt and Gauthier-Loiselle (2010) examine long-
run changes in high-skill immigration and the effects on patenting and find similar crowding-in effects. Nevertheless, there are key differences. Unlike us, Neff and
Harman (2013) do not find a significant association between the share of foreign-educated nurses working in the nurse’s hospital and her job satisfaction or
intention to leave. Note however, that their analysis is purely cross-sectional, their measures are not directly related to co-worker interactions, and they do not split
the sample between native and foreign-educated nurses. Borjas (2007) also finds that, as a whole, foreign students do not crowd out native students from graduate
programs. However, he also finds that the influx of foreign students into a particular field has an adverse effect on the earnings of native doctorates in the field
(Borjas 2009). 24 between science and engineering (SE) occupations and nursing that could potentially account for the difference in the effects of immigration on
native labor supply. For example, there is likely to be much larger externalities and economies of agglomeration in research and development as compared to
nursing. These findings underscore the importance of taking into account occupation-specific factors in understanding the potentially heterogeneous effects of
immigration on native labor supply.
Our findings that there are large displacement effects on the native nurse
population suggest that relying heavily on foreign nurses to fill the gap in the U.S. healthcare
workforce is a potentially counterproductive policy in the longer run. To the extent that foreign nurse
importation lowers the incentives to invest in the retention and production of native nurses, a
comprehensive policy that facilitates the hiring of foreign nurses in regions and during the periods of
immediate and acute need, yet provides incentives to states and employers to invest in expanding the
native workforce, might be the best way forward. A similar policy currently exists under the H-1B program. Employers requesting H-1B
visas for highly skilled temporary workers are required to pay a fee that is then used to fund grants for skills training and scholarships for native workers in STEM
fields (Ruiz and Wilson 2013)

3. Lebanon is particularly fucked with a healthcare shortage.

Human Rights Watch. (2020, March 24). Lebanon: COVID-19 Worsens Medical Supply Crisis.
Retrieved September 25, 2020, from https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/03/24/lebanon-covid-19-
worsens-medical-supply-crisis

Lebanon’s financial crisis has resulted in a scarcity of medical supplies necessary to deal
(Beirut) –

with the COVID-19 outbreak, Human Rights Watch said today. Hospital staff and nurses have raised concerns about the failure of the
government and hospitals to adequately staff hospitals and protect staff from infection. The Lebanese government is obligated to ensure everyone’s right to health,
including access to essential medical care and treatment of disease. The country’s financial crisis has caused a dollar shortage that, since September, has restricted
the ability of medical supply importers to import vital medical supplies, including masks, gloves, and other protective gear, as well as ventilators and spare parts. The
This has
government has also not reimbursed public and private hospitals for bills, including from the National Social Security Fund and military health funds.

made it harder for them to purchase medical supplies, hire additional staff to reduce the
burden on overworked nurses, and provide necessary protective gear . “The COVID-19 outbreak has placed
additional strain on a health care sector already in crisis,” said Joe Stork, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch. “The Lebanese government has taken
swift and broad measures that bought it time, but its ability to manage the outbreak will depend on how it uses this time to secure necessary supplies and provide
health care workers with the resources they need.” Between March 16 and 19, 2020, Human Rights Watch interviewed 6 high-level hospital officials, 2 hospital staff
members, a medical equipment importer representative, and 2 epidemiology specialists. A source at the public Rafik Hariri University Hospital (RHUH) in Beirut, the
leading COVID-19 testing and treatment center in the country, said that the government has paid only 40 percent of the dues it owes the hospital from 2019 and
has made no payments for 2020. Public hospitals in Halba and Akkar also said they have not received all their payments from the government. The government
owes private hospitals an estimated US$1.3 billion in unpaid bills since 2011, according to Sleiman Haroun, the head of the Syndicate of Private Hospitals. Salma
Assi, the spokeswoman for the medical equipment importers, said that they have not been able to import medical equipment since September due to the dollar
shortage and the absence of government regulations that would prevent banks from arbitrarily restricting money transfers outside the country. “Some very vital
items are missing for the coronavirus response,” Assi said, including almost all “disposables” like gloves, masks, and gowns. Importers have not been able to bring in
ventilators or spare parts for faulty ones. Assi said that since September, importers have only been able to bring in equipment worth $10 million – less than 10
percent of the country’s needs. “For three months now, we have been saying that we are running out of disposables and sounding the alarm,” she said.
“Meanwhile, the Central Bank and the commercial banks have been playing a game of ping pong and deflecting blame.” Officials at private and public hospitals in
Beirut and north Lebanon said that the lack of funds as well as the shortage of medical supplies was impairing their ability to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak. A
source at RHUH said that “the more our system is tested by a larger number of cases, the more we will struggle to cope.” Officials at hospitals that are not treating
COVID-19 cases said that they also need to take precautionary measures, as their staff may come into contact with an infected patient. “We are suffering,” said Dr.
Mohammad Khadrin, the director of the Abdallah al-Rassi public hospital in Halba in northern Lebanon. “We need to at least secure protective gear – today before
tomorrow.” Khadrin said that the hospital has shortages of gloves, protective suits, and respirators, and has had to buy them at inflated prices on the black market.
Khadrin added that the small payments they receive from the Health Ministry can barely pay salaries, let alone equip the hospital to deal with the outbreak. Ali
Fakih, a member of the infection control committee at the Sir al-Dinnieh Public Hospital in northern Lebanon, said that the hospital had trouble getting medical
supplies before the COVID-19 outbreak, but the situation now is worse, as gloves and masks “have disappeared.” Private hospitals also face severe supply shortages,
further exacerbated by the government’s failure to make payments. Assi said that private hospitals owe medical suppliers $350 million, accrued over the last 2
years. Haroun said on March 12 that “we have an acute shortage…. If there are no imports of fresh [medical] supplies, we will not be able to manage for more than
a week.” Dr. Naji Aoun, head of the COVID-19 response committee at the Clemenceau Medical Center in Beirut, and a source at a private hospital outside Beirut
both said that they face shortages in gloves, suits, and goggles, although both added that part of the problem lies in the global shortage. Hospital staff and nurses
interviewed raised concerns about working conditions amid severe supply shortages and funding shortfalls. Mirna Doumit, head of the Order of Nurses, said that
In some hospitals,
due to the economic crisis many hospitals laid off nurses in December, causing an unsustainable workload for those remaining. “

you have up to 20 patients per nurse,” she said. “This is unacceptable.” She said that some
hospitals are not paying nurses or are slashing their salaries. “Now on top of that, even though nurses are on the front
line, if any nurse is suspected of having coronavirus, they are being asked to self-quarantine without pay,” she said. Doumit also raised concerns about hospitals
providing nurses with the necessary equipment to protect themselves from infection. She said nurses at the RHUH have the necessary support but nurses in other
hospitals do not: “The risk that they come into contact with an infected person is high, even if the hospital is not a coronavirus treatment center.” As of March 17,
there were 12 confirmed COVID-19 cases among nurses, Doumit said. Administrative staff at the RHUH expressed their concern about what they viewed as
insufficient measures to protect them against the risk of infection. “They have not disinfected our offices yet, nor given us masks,” said Samer Nazzal, a finance
administrator and employees’ committee member there. “Unless Lebanon urgently takes measures needed to import vital medical supplies, there is a risk of the
virus overwhelming the already struggling health care system,” Stork said. Lebanon’s COVID-19 Containment Efforts As of March 23, the Lebanese Health Ministry
had registered 267 COVID-19 cases and 4 deaths. The RHUH has been receiving and treating coronavirus patients. On March 20, the head of the health
parliamentary committee, Issam Araji, announced that they have equipped 12 additional public hospitals to treat coronavirus patients. A number of private
hospitals have also begun preparing to receive coronavirus patients, though the head of the Syndicate of Private Hospitals stated that even the biggest private
hospital will not be able to provide more than 20 beds to receive coronavirus cases. On February 28, Lebanon introduced travel restrictions for non-residents from
countries with large COVID-19 outbreaks, including China, Italy, South Korea, and Iran. The next day, Education Minister Tarek Majzoub ordered all schools and
universities to close. On March 6, the ministerial committee tasked with combating the virus ordered all entertainment venues, such as cinemas and nightclubs, to
shut their doors temporarily, and, a few days later, the measure was expanded to include restaurants. On March 15, President Michel Aoun announced a “medical
state of emergency,” and the government ordered all non-essential public and private institutions to close, except those needed to fulfill vital needs, such as
bakeries, pharmacies, supermarkets, and banks. The government also announced that it would immediately suspend travel from countries with serious COVID-19
outbreaks, including Iran, Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Italy, Germany, France, Spain, the United Kingdom, China, and South Korea, then closed all air, land, and sea borders on
March 18. Prime Minister Hassan Diab on March 21 called on citizens to observe a “self-imposed curfew” and instructed security forces to step up measures to
ensure that citizens remain at home. Dr. Salim Adib, professor of epidemiology and public health at the American University of Beirut and a consultant to the Health
Ministry, stressed the need to stop “importing cases” and urged the government to ensure that people on the last buses and planes coming into Lebanon before the
nationwide lockdown began on March 18 are rigorously tested and quarantined. “This is the make or break,” Adib said. The source at the RHUH said that the
government’s recent measures bought time and prevented the health care system from being overwhelmed, but that Lebanon’s ability to weather the crisis will
depend on what they do with this time. “Will they increase the health care system’s capacity and make sure that the social distancing measures are enforced, or
not,” he said. On March 12, the government allocated a $39 million World Bank loan that was awarded before the COVID-19 pandemic to prepare and equip public
hospitals to confront the outbreak. The World Health Organization (WHO) has shipped personal protective gear to doctors in Beirut. The Chinese government has
also provided Lebanon with equipment, including temperature monitoring machines and goggles, to combat the virus, and on March 15, the Chinese ambassador to
Lebanon stated that China will offer more donations to Lebanon. The Dollar Shortage Lebanon’s economy has long depended on a regular inflow of United States
dollars, and the Central Bank has pegged the Lebanese pound to the US dollar at an official exchange rate of 1,507.5 Lebanese pounds since 1997. Over the last 10
years, as economic growth slowed and remittances from the Lebanese diaspora decreased, the quantity of dollars in circulation declined. A lack of confidence in the
stability of the Lebanese pound in 2019 and concerns about the stability of the banking sector led depositors to withdraw from dollar accounts, making dollars
increasingly scarce and causing the unofficial exchange rate to reach more than 2,600 Lebanese pounds to the dollar at the end of February. Assi said that Lebanon
imports 100 percent of its medical supplies. Suppliers must pay for imports in dollars but receive hospital payments in Lebanese pounds. Around July, Assi said,
medical importers started facing problems exchanging Lebanese pounds to dollars at banks due to the dollar shortage, and resorted to converting to dollars at
private exchange brokers at rates higher than the official rate, losing significant sums in the process. On January 21, the Central Bank issued a decision guaranteeing
85 percent of the dollars medical suppliers need for imports at the more favorable official rate, leaving them to obtain the remaining 15 percent at the market rate.
But Assi said that the bank has not acted on its announcement. Some international companies have given Lebanese importers longer grace periods for payment, she
said, enabling them to bring in shipments “here and there,” but she underscored that this arrangement was not sustainable. Without formal capital controls by the
Central Bank, banks have set their own policies restricting depositors’ access to funds in their current dollar accounts and the transfer of money abroad, making it
harder to finance imports, including of medical equipment and medicine, and importers have stated that banks were refusing to allow them to transfer dollars
already in their accounts to manufacturers abroad. Lebanese banks have also imposed severe restrictions on lines of credit, and some foreign suppliers are now
demanding full payment prior to delivery because insurance companies have refused to cover shipments to Lebanon. International Obligations Lebanon is a party to
the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR), which requires state parties to take steps to achieve “the right of everyone to the
enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of physical and mental health.” Under the covenant, state parties must ensure “[t]he creation of conditions which
would assure to all medical service and medical attention in the event of sickness.” According to the UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, the
international expert body that monitors implementation of the ICESCR, this includes: the provision of equal and timely access to basic preventive, curative,
rehabilitative health services and health education; regular screening programmes; appropriate treatment of prevalent diseases, illnesses, injuries and disabilities,
preferably at community level; the provision of essential drugs; and appropriate mental health treatment and care The right to health includes access to “timely and
appropriate health care” and requires that “(f)unctioning public health and health-care facilities, goods and services, as well as programmes, have to be available in
sufficient quantity within the State party.” Any state “which is unwilling to use the maximum of its available resources for the realization of the right to health is in
violation of its obligations” under article 12 of the Covenant. Although the Covenant recognizes that constraints due to the availability of resources and the right to
health is subject to progressive realization, the committee has held that it also imposes on states obligations which are of immediate effect, including an obligation
to take steps towards the full realization of the rights to health. Such steps must be deliberate, concrete, and targeted toward the full realization of the right. Under
the covenant, states are required to adopt appropriate “legislative, administrative, budgetary, judicial, promotional and other measures towards the full realization
of the right to health.” States should also ensure that progress toward ensuring the right to health does not regress – e.g., that people are denied essential medicine
they previously had access to. A state’s failure to take all necessary measures to safeguard people within their jurisdiction from infringements of the right to health
by third parties or to regulate the activities of individuals, groups, or corporations so as to prevent them from violating the right to health of others also constitute
violations

SCENARIOS-
Your scenarios literally mean nothing. We are simply ahead. Your framing proves that
there is an urgency to vote for the neg. We will never trigger the ! of war and that alone
is a reason to vote neg. And the CP will solve the !’s of these scenarios.
FW- 
Well concede framing. This means that you will instantly vote neg. We prevent the war
scenario from the DA that the aff WILL trigger. We are winning the probability because
the AFF makes it worse as well as magnitude and irreversibility.