PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

WEEK 1
24/02/21

INTRODUCTION: LATEST ECONOMIC CONDITION

HEADING
 How to explain crisis : explain with economy
 Semakin kedepan crisis occurred more frequently
 Business cycle  important to calculate daya beli, pengaruh inflasi pada daya beli
 The world’s economy will be more and more volatile
 Volatility index:
- December 2019 the highest is only trading
- Globalization  speed trading  highest is 80an (karena covid)
- The worst that ever happened
 Financial crisis: not only economy, could be other unexpected factors/exogen (pandemic)
 Business cycle is not enough
 2008: mortgage crisis (look it up), because of property market boom in the US
 Services account: ada yg terkait faktor ekonomi ada yg tidak (like umroh, travel)
 Perekonomian double deficit: US in 2019, and budget balance in 2020 -14.9 (wow)
 2020 economy: semua di dunia budget balance deficit (umkm mati, corporate kesulitan,
terpaksa pemerintah turun tangan)
 Crisis: can’t depend only on the finance minister, BI harus turun tangan to control situation
 Bursa efek: US masih bertahan, Euro area & Britain kebanting, Indo juga turun,
 Investment grade: pasar obligasi, mematok pada US, Indonesia bukan AAA, maka punya
risiko, terpaksa memberikan spread
 Commodities:
- Non-food: kayu, karet, etc
- Food: selalu bagus, yang menyelamatkan during the crisis
 Sekarang jual obligasi