Development, 2014, 56(4), (528–535)

© 2014 Society for International Development 1011-6370/14

www.sidint.net/development/

Local/Global Encounters

A Foresight Study of Boyacá’s Industrial Corridor

Towards 2019

FRANCISCO JOSÉ ABSTRACT This article is the result of a research project ‘A Foresight
MOJICA SASTOQUE, Analysis of a Region for Economic Planning – Boyacá’s Industrial
Corridor towards 2019’. The theoretical foundations of the project
JULIO CÉSAR ACOSTA were based on Territorial Foresight. The methodology was designed
PRADO AND JOSÉ considering the following aspects – the positioning of the region
considering the global, national and regional contexts; key trends and
OSWALDO ESPINOSA technologies that would influence the region and its productive
CUERVO sectors; an identification and prioritization of strategic variables for
the regions territorial development system. On the basis of these
aspects, four alternate scenarios of possible futures were developed
and one of them was identified as a desired future and a set of seven
strategies were identified and are being implemented with a view to
actualizing the desired future.

KEYWORDS industrial corridor of Boyacá; territorial foresight;

regional development; vision of the future

Geographical and historical context of the region

Boyacá [boʝa′ka] is one of the 32 departments of Colombia. It is centrally located within
Colombia, almost entirely within the mountains of the Eastern Cordillera to the border
with Venezuela. Boyacá is known as ‘The Land of Freedom’ because this region was the
scene of a series of battles that led to Colombia’s independence from Spain. The final and
decisive battle known as the Battle of Boyacá was fought on 7 August 1819.
The Ventaquemada-Sogamoso strip is known as the industrial pathway in Boyacá.

Introduction
In 2010, Boyacá’s ‘Administrative Department of Planning’ and the ‘Center of Strategic
Thinking and Foresight’ of the University Externado de Colombia conducted a foresight
analysis of the region for economic planning – Boyacá’s Industrial Corridor towards 2019.
The objective of this initiative was:
● First to validate the state of the art and to conduct technological surveillance in light of
the new set of opportunities available in the region as a result of new laws and public
policies, which will impact the region in the next six years.
Development (2014) 56(4), 528–535. doi:10.1057/dev.2014.49
 Mojica Sastoque et al: Boyacá’s Industrial Corridor Towards 2019
● Second, to identify change factors, strategic
variables and to define hypotheses in order to
formulate the ‘most likely’ and relevant scenar-
ios for the region.
● And finally, to design and validate alternate
scenarios for the future which will permit to
propose challenges, strategies and implications
in the ‘best scenario’ for the development of the
region.
A number of pre-existing plans and studies were
used as the background for this ambitious initiative
including:
● ‘The Boyacá 2012–2015’ development plan.
● ‘The reform of the general system of royalties’
(La reforma del Sistema General de Regalías).
● ‘The Master Plan – Boyaca’s path to Prosperity:
the way to achieve the Seven Wonders’ (El
Contrato Plan ‘Boyacá camino a la prosperidad’, la
vía de hacer efectivas Las Siete Maravillas).
● ‘Boyacá 2019 Vision: the land of freedom
and bicentennial prosperity’ (La Visión Boyacá
2019: territorio de libertad y prosperidad
bicentenaria).
● ‘The Boyaca Regional Strategic Plan for Science,
Technology and Innovation – 2012–2022’ (El
Plan Estratégico Regional de Ciencia, Tecnología e
Innovación -PERCTI- del Departamento de Boyacá
2012–2022).
The foresight study aimed to test the robustness
and harmony of the region’s various strategic
plans so that it will contribute to the economic
development and integral growth of Boyacá’s
Industrial Corridor.
This study is relevant for three reasons:
● First, the region is receiving financing from the
National Government as well as from foreign
investors interested in strategic projects. Ideally,
these funds will be directed towards the key
factors for the advancement of the region as
stated in the most likely scenario.
● Second, the favourable governance framework
allowed for the consolidation of gains emerging
from land use reforms and the growing role of
business associations.
● Third, the completion of several infrastructure
developments such as the Bogota–Tunja–
Duitama–Sogamoso highway have set the stage
for further regional development.
Theoretical foundations
Territorial development is the result of a dynamic
relationship between people and their land.
This relationship is in a constant process of
transformation in the search for well-being. It is
also the result of:
● Multidimensional interrelations: Geographical,
environmental, economic, social, cultural, poli-
tical and institutional.
● Multi-scale: World, national, regional and local.
● Multi-actor: Ethnic, inter-disciplinary and inter-
networks where each individual, social group,
organizations and institutions has different
degrees of power.
Territorial development is framed by some rules
of citizen conduct called governance. Likewise, the
development depends on the competence of leaders
and the ability of all stakeholders first to agree on
which development model to pursue and how this
relates to their territory on one hand, and second,
the ability to marshal the necessary resources to
meet the agreed objectives.
The achievement of set objectives is a function of
the quality of governance in the territory and its
environment. Territories with high-quality gov-
ernance show high degrees of social and territorial
cohesiveness, with strong mechanisms for dialo-
gue and integration, and where the common
interests are prioritized. By contrast, in territories
with poor quality governance, individual interests
conflict with social, environmental, economic,
political and institutional issues.
In other words, territorial development is a social
and dynamic construction process of interrelation-
ships of human and geographical factors that provide
a place with a sense of ownership and specific social
behaviours linked to space, place and landscape.
The location of a territory is a social act of
registration of a place in the specificity: Where
is it? How is it? How is it different? (Mazurek,
2006: 11). Likewise, the territory gives a sense of
recognition of that place through the identity, 529
Development 56(4): Local/Global Encounters
governance and the notion of citizenship (Mazurek,
2006: 50).
Territorial foresight is applied to physical and
legal locations such as: municipalities, depart-
ments, regions, development areas, corridors,
among others, in order to identify common visions
of the future adapted to regional, national and
global dynamics in order to orient strategic actions
to be undertaken by actors, institutions and citi-
zens living in or are affected by these areas.
The contribution of foresight to the renewal of
territorial planning was recognized and has been
substantiated by recent successes that have been
amply documented (Loinger and Durance, 2004;
Mousli, 2004; Derné et al., 2008). There is also a
renewed and stimulating vision of territorial fore-
sight (Bailly, 2005), as evidenced by the numerous
works published in recent years (de Courson,
1999; Destatte, 2001; Goux-Baudiment, 2001;
Debarbieux and Vanier, 2002; Farhi et al., 2003;
de Jouvenel, 2004; Godet and Durance, 2011: 95).
The results of a study ‘Mapping Foresight in
Europe and the rest of the World’ conducted by the
University of Manchester’s Global Foresight
Outlook in 2007, using a sample of 1,652 cases
spanning five continents (Europe, North America,
Asia, Africa and Oceania show how most territor-
ial foresight initiatives are national (70 percent)
and the rest (30 percent) are regional. With the
relevance gained by regions or city/regions as a
result of the globalization, it is highly likely that
this proportion will be reversed in coming years.
In Colombia, this trend could already be
observed as of 2011. By then, the Department of
National Planning was working with eight depart-
ments (Arauca, Atlántico, Boyacá, Cauca, Cesar,
Magdalena, Meta and Risaralda) in the formula-
tion of their development visions. By this time,
the following departments had already com-
pleted their development visions: Antioquia, Valle,
Cundinamarca, Huila, Casanare, Norte de Santander,
Santander and Caquetá.
In addition, within the Competitiveness Plans
for the 32 regions of the country, each one has a
statement of a vision for the future.
Territorial foresight is the use of strategic foresight
applied to a territory for its development (Godet and
530 Durance, 2011: 87). It is the construction of
scenarios of possible futures facing a territory. There
are two schools of thought in the construction of
scenarios: the French (prospective), defined as a
discipline that focuses on ‘anticipation’ to clarify
current actions in light of a possible and desirable
future and the Anglo-Saxon (forecasting or foresight),
which is based on forecasts (information and the
assignment of probability) of occurrence of an event,
fact, trend or scenario bet.
Methodology of territorial foresight
applied to the ‘Region of Economic
Planning of Boyacá’s Industrial Corridor’
(R-CI-BOY)
At the methodological level the project was
approached in two stages:
● The first phase of the project comprised second-
ary research – an analysis of existing literature
and websites, which meant an analysis of the
‘state of the art’ with regard to regional devel-
opment and identifying relevant technologies
that were likely to impact the current plans and
how they were trending.
● The second phase involved primary research and
saw a number of experts with good knowledge of
regional behaviour (Expert Group Leaders) and
representatives from government, the productive
sectors, academia and civil society being engaged
over six workshops. The workshops were used to
design possible future scenarios of regional devel-
opment to identify the preferred scenario to
pursue and define strategies to achieve it.
Understanding change factors and strategic
variables of R-CI-BOY
Change factors are phenomena whose future sta-
tus is uncertain. These phenomena in territorial
foresight correspond to the dimensions of the
territorial systemic model consisting of: economic,
social, cultural, environmental, political and
institutional factors (Mojica, 2005).
To identify and validate the change factors
affecting R-CI-BOY, a series of existing planning
documents were reviewed and a large degree of fit
 Mojica Sastoque et al: Boyacá’s Industrial Corridor Towards 2019
between identified change factors (23 factors) and
those listed in the planning documents (14 factors)
was established.
The relationship of these change factors, that is,
the influence and indirect dependencies, allowed the
research group to identify the strategic variables.
Strategic variables are the relevant change
factors that significantly affect the region for its
high degree of influence and dependence on the
regional systemic model (Table 1).
In order to understand the regional systemic
model comprising the 14 change factors, and to set
the strategic variables, the method of cross-impact
matrix was applied, using the MIC-MAC pro-
gramme developed by Godet (2001) as part of the
foresight toolbox. This mathematical technique
allows the degree of dependence and influence of
each factor on the system to be established and to
determine the variables that affect it.
Three strategic variables were identified: quality
of life, environmental sustainability and markets.
Table 1. Results of Change Factors and Strategic Variables
Source: Author.
To clarify the behaviour of the strategic vari-
ables the process proceeded to identify the ‘social
actors’ influencing the dynamics of each variable.
For this purpose, the ‘game players’ technique
using MACTOR (Godet, 2001), which seeks to
determine the degree of power handled by each
actor and the strategies they have or would be
willing to run, with the objective to defend their
interests was used (Table 2).
R-CI-BOY scenarios workshop
Four scenario stories were developed from a
matrix (see Figure 1 ) that considered two strategic
variables:
● Management/Investment and integration.
● Knowledge and transformation.
These stories were:
Competitive region, integrated with the world
(increased management investment and integration as
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Development 56(4): Local/Global Encounters
Table 2. Actors Game Results

532
 Mojica Sastoque et al: Boyacá’s Industrial Corridor Towards 2019
Figure 1: Alternate projects of future for R-CI-BOY (adapted from Schwartz, 1991)
well as increased application of knowledge and
transformation).
Region in the wrong hands (increased management
investment and integration; decreased application of
knowledge and transformation).
Unsustainable region (declining management invest-
ment and integration as well as declining application of
knowledge and transformation).
Emigration region (declining management invest-
ment and integration; increased application of knowl-
edge and transformation).
Although each scenario described a possible
future, the preferred future in this case was the ‘Com-
petitive Region/Integrated with the World’.
Getting to the preferred future
In adopting the world depicted in the ‘Competitive
Region, integrated with the world’ scenario as a
vision for the region, a number of strategies were
defined. The strategies in this case are a combina-
tion of objectives, goals and several other actions
as described in Table 3.
Final considerations
This research project was able to validate the
initial studies and plans on the R-CI-BOY corridor
and to integrate new and valuable elements that
defined change factors and their high degree of
influence and dependence to create a conversation
around strategic variables with key stakeholders.
This process led to the definition of a set of
scenarios, one of which was chosen as a sort of
‘guiding star’ for the region. What remains is the
need to validate both the scenarios and the strate-
gies by the regional stakeholders and actors and for
them to be adapted as ‘regulatory’ scenarios that
guide policies, projects and other actions aimed at
taken the region towards its desired future.
It is important to highlight some limitations to
this study:
1. Essentially, this study is an update of a territor-
ial prospective study, based on a review of
documents and consultation with experts, in
order to validate the changing trends and
complement them, to redesign future scenarios
and explore the implications of the scenarios. 533
Development 56(4): Local/Global Encounters
Table 3. Strategies and actions for Scenario 1: Competitive region globally integrated
Strategies
1. Regional institutionalism,
public and land
management, governance
2.Research, innovation,
appropriate technology
for the corridor
3. Land use planning and
risk management and
climate change
4. Regional intelligence
system
5. Brand region and the
Seven Wonders of Boyacá
6. Culture of competitiveness,
business dynamics and
modern enterprise
management system
7. Connectivity,
infrastructure, logistics,
mobility and ICT
Source: Author.
534
Actions
● Developing a governance model
● Providing regional and local government, the means to manage the
demands of the corridor
● Addressing the multiplicity and diversity of a heterogeneous population
● Establishing mechanisms for participation of social organizations
● Developing technology parks and research in significant sectors
(agriculture, mining, metallurgy, tourism, trade and services,
biotechnology, etc.)
● Establishing programs to promote the use of a second language
● Establishing quality policies for the accreditation of basic and higher
education
● Establishing department management guidelines
● Establishing the model of occupation and use of the R-CI-BOY
● Update management plans for 12 municipalities
● Defining urban and territorial rules
● Performing conservation and decontamination of the Chicamocha Basin
● Establishing a regional intelligence system with the participation of
public, academic and business sectors and social observatories
● Establishing a strategic competitive model
● Performing surveillance and dynamic monitoring to update regional
strategic competitive model
● Establishing a regional brand in the region, to help build identity and
references to products and tourism activities
● Establishing a brand in the region, to help build identity and references
to products and tourism activities
● Articulate the brand with the Seven Wonders of Boyacá
● Establishing an assessment policy of regional identity, beginning with its
strategic location in the Andean region
● Establishing a policy to promote sectorial production chains and links
of a global value chain (GVC), taking place in multiple
geographic locations
● Identifying the most competitive sectors their development
● Establishing a policy and infrastructure planning, logistics and
connectivity to make better use of national, departmental and local
resources and generate a more competitive environment, high mobility
and connectivity
● This policy must be in harmony with the production model,
management and occupation
 Mojica Sastoque et al: Boyacá’s Industrial Corridor Towards 2019
2. The time horizon of the study is limited to six
years in order to maintain the initial para-
meters of the first study. For the Department of
Boyacá and the country, this date is very
important because it commemorates the
200th anniversary of the Battle of Boyacá,
battle that eventually led to the independence
of Colombia on 7 August 1819.
3. The geographical scope of the study is limited to
the R-CI-BOY and its area of influence.
To achieve the vision of the desired future over a
six-year horizon is ambitious. It involves imple-
menting the seven strategies proposed, and in
order to achieve this, it is necessary to harmonize
all initiatives, public, private and social – some
covered by plans, others in hopes, wishes and
social aspirations. This calls for an unprecedented
degree of institutional organization, leadership and
regional intelligence required to make the changes
throughout the territorial system.

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