GLO BUS Forecast Sheet Template 2020-06-16

Note Well: The majority of problems that people have with this procedure stem from the fact
that they ignore step 4. S

share you need to iterate. First pick a PQ in step 2 that you want to test. Go through all of step 3 again from stratch. T
market share will give you in terms of EPS, ROE, Image and Credit Rating. Then you return to step 2 again. Then you
associated with that PQ and market share. do this at least two if not a half dozen times! If you don't, you will not have
Don't be foolish into thinking that is just a computer program - it is not. It is the reactions of a computer program to a
therefore, it will tend to be irrational and different every time! There are common themes though...
average competitive assumptio

with their company. Did you kn
Step 1: Input your Industry Average Competitive Assumptions. well your company will perform
how to: chose to either use my
time, just increase each one of t
year]
Step 2: Pick a target PQ and target market share.

Pick a PQ target and then say to yourself, "[Self], this is the PQ that I will be testing out to see if it is any good for thos
- whatever PQ you choose, you should be different than the competitive assumtion for PQ at the start of the game.
- a lower PQ will help you more easily help you get a high market share and more profit.
- a high PQ will help you more easily get a high image, but it will be harder to have a high market share.
- PQ of 0.5, you will save a ton of money on the production per unit. You must have amazing prices and marketing to compensate, otherwise you are going
- READ THIS ONLY IF YOU HAVE TROUBLES: Basically, pick a PQ target please. Any target, this is just a test - don't hunt and peck like a glo-bus maniac
Pick a target market share and then say to yourself: "[Self], this is the target market share that I will be testing out to s
- market share has a larger impact on image than PQ
- if you have a market share that is double the industry average, you can say that you have an advantage over the competition because your factory is large
- market share has a larger impact on image than PQ. Yes, I am saying it again. I am saying it again, on purpose. Use this knowledge to your advantage p
Step 3: Optimize the rest of the decision pages (Product Design, Marketing, Compensation & Facilities, Finance and Cash Flo
Product Design
a. Set R&D to the desired amount. Set models (high PQ, low models; low PQ, high models).
b. Choose a design that will give you the PQ target selected (chosen above in step 2) for the lowest "Total Camer
Action-Capture Camera Marketing and UAV Drone Marketing
a. Set sales promotions.
b. Choose the Price and Marketing that will give you the target market share you chose in Step 2 at the highest O
Compensation & Facilities
a. Set the base wage.
b. Set the Assembly Quality Incentive, Attendance Bonus, Fringe Benefits Package and Best Practices / Productivi
c. Set the number of "Installed Workstations" for Cameras and Drones to a level that makes the "Assembly Capac
d. Initiate Robotics Upgrade if the "Net Annual Cost Impact of Robotics Upgrade" is negative enough (this means
Special Contract Offers

Set the discount offered so that the ‘value index’ is at a level higher than your competition plus a margin of safet
Corporate Citizenship
Select those things that don’t cost a lot of EPS, but still give you an image boost.
how to: ...if the

by more than a
how to: ...if the
by more than a
how to: ...OR th

to what it was.
only the ones th
Finance & Cash Flow

a. Buyback as many shares as possible.
how to: ...is greater than the
of the loan selected
b. Do early repayment of L-T for all loans that have an interest rate higher than the current 10-Year Loan interest
how to: Increa
c. Increase your 10-Year Loans until the current ratio is greater than 2.1 and your ‘Projected Cash Balance at the
d. If your ‘Debt / Equity Percentage’ is greater than your chosen heuristic or your Shareholder Equity is less than
Step 4: Write down your scoring metrics (EPS, ROE, CR, image). Return to Step 2 (above) and pick a different target PQ and ta
Step 5: Save your build. “Tweak it” by checking again each of your previous decisions by increasing and decreasing one of two
Notes:
- try using the arrow keys on your computer up and down to cycle through the selections for each variable, the Ta
- this is the hunt for easter eggs. Move each decision up and down by a couple selections trying to find a better.
- If your EPS doesn't go down, but you are able to spend more money on something, then spend the extra money.
- If your EPS doesn't go down much and you are able to invest in something that will give you a future benefit, figure out if you want to do that
- If your EPS increases AND you are able to also get some other benefit as well for making the change then do it!
Step 6: Finally, you have found the correct PQ, so increase your R&D to your desired level. Next, go back and check everything
Notes:
- This is the most important note of this whole thing, congratulations for getting this far.
- R&D functions like an investment. For example, you might have worked out a Projected EPS of $3.00 fo
What are you going to do with the extra $2.00 of EPS? Well, you could invest it and get a bigger return o
your EPS that will give you more money over the life of the game (R&D and economies of scale). So, if y
game score, $10.00 is better than realizing only $2.00. Most players of Glo-Bus lose because they don't u
game EPS, it doesn't matter if you get that EPS at the start of the game or the end of the game. R&D will
The alternate thing that you could do with that extra $2.00 is to not invest it and instead achieve the high
rounds! That must mean that I'm doing well and my company is really good! (- No. No you are not doing
- I like to use my sheet for determining the R&D advantages contained in this file to make sure that I will achieve
- Unless there is a weird scoring that the professor has set up, the best first three round ranking is in the lower ha
- how did you figure all this out? I read investment books and most of my time is business analysis. I'm also a p
- More often now, there are multiple students of mine who are competing against each other in the same game.
- What can you do for me? Send me screenshots. And the more the better to help future students. In exchange
hat they ignore step 4. Step 4 is essentially sayng that to find the best PQ and market
ep 3 again from stratch. Then you arrive in step 4 again and write down what that PQ and
step 2 again. Then you go through all of step 3 again and write down the scoring metrics
u don't, you will not have a good idea of what PQ to pick!!! Glo-Bus is different every time.
a computer program to a group of irrational people who are competing against you,
ugh...
age competitive assumptions: what the other Glo-Bus players, on average, are doing
their company. Did you know that what the other players are doing will affect how
your company will perform (like, an enormous amount)?
to: chose to either use my Forecast page(s) in this spreadsheet or if you are pressed for
just increase each one of these one or two selections. [this needs to be done every
if it is any good for those Competitive Assumptions that I just entered in Step 1. By the end of this procedure I will know whethe
pensate, otherwise you are going to be hurt really badly on the scoring parameter of image. (I secretly love this strategy to begin with because it is really different, but you need
nt and peck like a glo-bus maniac on the production page, pressing buttons all over the place thinking that you are doing yourself a favour when the EPS or image or inverse in
t I will be testing out to see if it is any good for those Competitive Assumptions that I just entered in Step 1. By the end of this pro
models: how many different types of camera or drone
your company
tion because your factory is larger than the rest of your competitors. makes;
This can be a goodmore models
long term = more
competitive sales and
advantage.
less PQ
s knowledge to your advantage please - most Glo-bus players (your competition) either ignore this or are oblivious to this knowledge. Exploit their ignorance for your profit or m
how to: see the rough table on "The Procedure" page

to set models.
ties, Finance and Cash Flow) as follows:
R&D: research and development; decreases the cost

per unit and increases PQ (accumulates over time!)
how to: use the "R&D Benefit" pages for your length
Notes: of game
- I like to go with zero R&D at the start and then come back at the end and tweak it (and the rest of my entries on all pages). This is a little mor
- R&D advantage is important for end game supremacy Cameras
R&D setting for rounds 6 to 9 (10 round game): Until EPS is 1/2 of the IE
high PQ models: 3
middle PQ models: 4
low PQ models: 5
0.5 PQ models: 7
retailer support promotions: 120% industry average
Target Market Share round one: double industry average
Base Wage: 1%
Amount negative needed to initiate the Robotics Upgrade per year: > -1,000,000
Margin of Safety for special contracts Value Index: 10
Cost in EPS of one image point for CSRC (good value): 0.04
how to: try out multiple combinations
these...
or the lowest "Total Camera Production/Assembly Cost" per unit.

how to: ...holding this constant ...
Notes:
- there are a whole bunch of different design comb
- the PQ to hold constant at is that PQ target numb
- additional explanation for those with time on their
how to: ...to get the lowest number he

how to: ...to get the lowest number he
sales promotions: part of Marketing

how to: set to whatever gives you the best EPS
for now.
Notes:
- "Sales Promotions" is accually only one number that gets sent to the Glo-Bu
- I like to pick 16 weeks and vary the % discount because it always blows peo
how to: try out multiple combinations of

these...
e in Step 2 at the highest Operating Profit Margins without going below a margin of safety operating profit margin in any one region.
how to: ...holding a target market share y
chose to test earlier constant ...
Notes:
- for really time constrained people: you can use "P
- notice how I am using crazy numbers from multip
- in general, if you have a PQ that is really low, you
- if you have a choice between spending more or s
how to: ...to
- I don't getoperating
ever let the highest number
profit margin here,
go negative
area, without
- retailer supportgoing
budgetbelow a margin
only affects ofyear
the next saf
- additional explanation for those with time on their
how to: set base wage.
Notes:
- ignore the industry averages. Just pretend like th
- Goldilocks knows best: if you have base wage go
- With base wage, I set it and (almost) forget it for
how to: set these to get the highest EPS.

period.
how to: set these to get the highest EPS.
period.
Best Practices / Productivity Improvement Training for both Cameras and Drones for whatever value gives you the best EPS.
Notes:
- notice how paying the camera workforce worse than the drone workforce ma
- if you have really low quality, you will want to have especially high Best Prac
how to: set the factory size...
makes the "Assembly Capacity" equal the "Projected Camera Demand"

how to:or...to
bestmake
effort.
the
Assembly Capacity without overtime = Projected Demand.
Notes:
- the expansion should be only as big as necessary to make the assembly cap
- install every workstation you can for the workstation spaces th
- you may need to go back to the compensation to check you did it right at this
gative enough (this means a cost savings).
Notes:
- the robotics upgrade is suppose to save you money. This is what is meant by a negative cost impact. A negative cost impact = a cost savings. Thank-you GA
- the reason for a -1000 is to ensure that despite fluctuations in the competition, you will still be able to get a return on investment from your robotics upgrade. S
how to: If the "Net Annual Cost Impact of Robotics Upgrade" is less than -1
here then initiate the upgrade. If not, don't initiate the upgrade.
tion plus a margin of safety. If this is not possible, set the discount offered at the maximum allowed.
how to: check the CIR for what the highest value
competitor, for that region.
how to: change the special discount offer...

how to: change the special discount offer...
how to: ...until the Value Index becomes an amount mo

the CIR for that region.
Notes:
- for the first round, I usually go with the maximum discount in each region. This will cut deeply into my special offers profit, but because I don't kno
- for later rounds, I usually change the special discount offer until the value index becomes 10 points more than the highest value from the CIR. In
- the total number of special contract units that you sell, assuming that you won the contract, is determined by your market share in the rest of the g
how to: change one of these...
how to: ...if the Earnings Per Share goes down

by more than a couple of cents...
Notes:
how to: ...if the Earnings Per Share goes down
by more than a couple of cents...
- the cut off I use is $0.04 earnings per share per image point. Any more than this, I let it go.
- note that you don't receive any direct points for being the best corporate social responsibility person or the runner-up, but being the
- when you are going for the highest market share, which I try to do, it is harder to have your CSRC cash outlay per unit be very high
how to: ...OR this doesn't improve image ... then change the CSRC initiative back
to what it was. Repeat for each CSRC Initiative, testing each individually. Keep
only the ones that both improve image and cost less than a couple of cents EPS
how to: increase stock repurchase until it is at
Notes:
- stock repurchase will reduce the total number of share outstanding. Since you are judged based on Earnings per Share, if you incr
- stock issue means that you sell additional shares of your company. These additional shares dilute the Earnings per Share (cause it
- the right time to issue shares is when you have a stock price that is high. Conversely, the right time to do stock repurchase is when
how to: If the interest rate for any of the selec

how to: If the interest rate for any of the selec
w to: ...is greater than the interest rate here... then do early repayment of L-T
the loan selected
rent 10-Year Loan interest rate. Ignore your cash balance when doing this.
Notes:
- it doesn't matter what the amount of the debt is or if you have the free cash to payback the loan (loan payback happens differently th
how to: Increase these until...
ected Cash Balance at the End of Year’ is greater than 5% of projected ‘net Revenues.’
how to: ...until the 'Projected Cash Balance at the End of Year' is greater than 5%
of projected Net Revenues...
Notes:
- 10 year loans are less risky than 5 year loans, but 5 year loans have a better interest rate.
- I tend to use a split between 5 and 10-year loans of 3/5ths
- the 5% net revenue is because this gives you a margin of safety from going into your line o
- the 2.0 current ratio plus a margin of safety (I like to stay above a 2.10 current ratio) comes
how to: ...AND the current ratio is greater than 2.0 plu
how to: ...AND the current ratio is greater than 2.0 plu
eholder Equity is less than 100mil., then return to ‘a’ above and buy less shares and redo b and c. Repeat until you reach your target ‘Debt
Notes:
- If you are really having a hard time with debt, then you are probably doing something wrong with your build. Go back
- Dividends should be used once you have maximized your stock repurchase and you already have a market share adv
- an advanced strategy is to run a round of making your share price artificially high (you will need to understand how sto
how to: If the Debt / Equity Percentage here is greater
different target PQ and target market share to test. Repeat the steps above until you find the PQ with the optimum scoring at your desire
Notes:
- The answer to your question is in understanding how the game is actually scored and how your grade is obtained by
- Given that your professor grades based on end-game score or rank: at the beginning of the game, you should ignore score and rank and instead invest as muc
- Don't look so stressed, this is only hard work the first time and then it will get faster and faster.
- yes, you should do this for every year. Don't think that you are doing yourself a favour by just changing things from last year's numbers.
- the purpose of the B-I-I (Best In Industry) score is to give
Test 1 Test 2 Test 3 Test 4 Test 5

PQ 1.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 2.0
Market Share 20% 20% 20% 15% 25%
EPS 18.02 17.65 16.37 20.2 19.5
ROE 73.9% 69.5% 64.5% 79.5% 76.8%
CR A A A A A
Image 92 98 100 89 100
and decreasing one of two selections for the best scoring metrics. Save your build again.
ns for each variable, the Tab key to go from one selection to another and the Tab + Shift key to go backwards one selection.
, figure out if you want to do that based on end-game score (there is a sheet of this file that will help you do this if you are handy with excel, otherwise, just understand it notiona
back and check everything by repeating step 3 (for the PQ and market share that you have found to work the best) to correct for the addi
Projected EPS of $3.00 for the first round. Congratulations! That is lower than what it could be, but still respectable. But the Inve
and get a bigger return out of that $2.00. To do this, you will need to invest in something that will give you a return. There are onl
nomies of scale). So, if you invest that $2.00 of EPS in R&D then it might grow to give you a total return of $10.00 throughout the g
ose because they don't understand this idea. They think that short-term profits are superior to overall game profits, but because
d of the game. R&D will improve your EPS for every round after.
instead achieve the highest ranking for a meaningless round at the beginning of the game! Aren't I swell! Look at me everyone, I
No. No you are not doing well and you will gradually see your ranking drift to near the bottom because you hit the nitro too early.
ake sure that I will achieve a return of investment plus a return on investment for R&D at any stage of the game.
d ranking is in the lower half of the rankings given that you are investing very heavily (maximum) in R&D.
ness analysis. I'm also a professional engineer, so that helped too, but really it was my obsession with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger p
other in the same game. Don't panic if this is the case, simply reach back into what you know about good companies (e.g Apple, Amazon
ure students. In exchange I will look at them personally and give you a sanity check to make sure that you are going in the right direction o
his procedure I will know whether this target market share was a good choice."
h because it is really different, but you need to know what you are doing).
avour when the EPS or image or inverse interest coverage ratio just increased/decreased/stayed the same and therefore, now you have the 'right' PQ - just pick a target to test
in Step 1. By the end of this procedure I will know whether this target market share was a good choice."
e. Exploit their ignorance for your profit or mention it to them to help them out.
my entries on all pages). This is a little more time intensive, but it keeps me from guessing if my EPS turns negative half way through the procedure.
Drones
ntil EPS is 1/2 of the IE
2
2
3
7
20% industry average
ouble industry average
1%
> -1,000,000
N/A
0.04
to: try out multiple combinations of
e...
w to: ...holding this constant ...
are a whole bunch of different design combinations that will give you the same PQ!!!!!!!
Q to hold constant at is that PQ target number that you wrote down in Step 2. You did write the PQ target down, didn't you. But did you say the magic words from Step 2 as we
onal explanation for those with time on their hands: the costs difference between a 8mm image sensor size camera and a 9mm image sensor size camera is different than the c
to: ...to get the lowest number here.

to: ...to get the lowest number here.
nly one number that gets sent to the Glo-Bus computer. It is the combination of the number of weeks times the % discount. This means that if you have a low number of weeks
he % discount because it always blows people's minds and takes them a while to understand why I would use 16 weeks when the default from year 5 is 1 week (people like to s
try out multiple combinations of
fit margin in any one region.

: ...holding a target market share you
o test earlier constant ...
ally time constrained people: you can use "Projected EPS" as a proxy for operating profit margins per region if you hold your market shares in each region roughly equal.
e how I am using crazy numbers from multiple different games to throw you off from using my specific numbers? The Procedure is far more powerful than a set of spe
neral, if you have a PQ that is really low, you will want a price that is much lower than the competitive assumption at the bottom AND marketing that is much better than the com
have a choice between spending more or spending less and your EPS doesn't change, then spend more on marketing.
t ...to getoperating
ever let the highest number
profit margin here,per
go negative, I recommend you go for at least 5% as a margin of safety - use 7% if you are a first time glo-buser or are unsure of your forecast a
ithout
er supportgoing
budgetbelow a margin
only affects ofyear
the next safety.
and has very little affect on the current year. keeping a relatively high retailer support budget tends to work well because it will make
onal explanation for those with time on their hands: what price and marketing combination does your customer really want? Eric Reis wrote a book about Lean, which is what y
ase wage.
e the industry averages. Just pretend like they don't exist. Your competition doesn't know what is best and it is especially true for workforce compensation. Leadership in busin
ocks knows best: if you have base wage go down a lot in one year, your productivity will really suffer. If you have it go up a lot in one year, then you will need to suffer with that
base wage, I set it and (almost) forget it for the rest of the game.
highest EPS.
highest EPS.
es you the best EPS.
orkforce worse than the drone workforce makes profits the largest? (i.e. pay the camera workforce poorly and the drones really well)
will want to have especially high Best Practices / Productivity Imporvement Training
rojected Demand.
big as necessary to make the assembly capacity without overtime equal the projected demand.
u can for the workstation spaces that you have installed.
ompensation to check you did it right at this point. It is sometimes affected by the assembly facility
ost impact = a cost savings. Thank-you GAAP accounting for being confusing so I can beat people that are dumber or lazier than me at Glo-Bus.
n investment from your robotics upgrade. Since doing the robotics upgrade without a return on investment would be ill advised, doing the robotics upgrade without a return of in
of Robotics Upgrade" is less than -1,000
on't initiate the upgrade.
the CIR for what the highest value index was the last year of any other
r that region.
l discount offer...
l discount offer...
lue Index becomes an amount more than the highest value from
n.
special offers profit, but because I don't know what other people will do for value index, I certainly don't want them to win the special contract instead of me during the first roun
ore than the highest value from the CIR. In my experience, I get the special contract 95% of the time with that strategy. If I am feeling adventurous, I sometimes go with 5 point
ned by your market share in the rest of the game. Therefore, if I have twice as much market share as the average, then I will get twice as many special contract offers.
change one of these...

bility person or the runner-up, but being the best does accumulate such that if you continue to contribute, the affect of CSRC initiatives on image will increase (this is because it
our CSRC cash outlay per unit be very high because you have so many units; however, the advantages of a large market share are almost certain to outweigh the advantages o
ease stock repurchase until it is at a maximum
ed based on Earnings per Share, if you increase the number of shares, then the Earnings per Share will go down. If you instead buyback shares, then those share are no longe
ares dilute the Earnings per Share (cause it to go down), this is earnings per share that you won't see the round that you issue the shares and every round after. Since the end
he right time to do stock repurchase is when you have a low stock price. Since you tend to have a low stock price
he interest rate for any of the selections here...

he interest rate for any of the selections here...
he loan (loan payback happens differently than that in Glo-Bus. This is like refinancing for a lower interest rate. When you refinance, you use one loan to payback another bec
but 5 year loans have a better interest rate. Principle payments, which are forced payments, will be higher with shorter loans.
a margin of safety from going into your line of credit by accident in the next year. Credit ratings agencies don't like it when you make that mistake and since it is very cheap to a
ke to stay above a 2.10 current ratio) comes from the glo-bus players manual telling us that current ratios under 2.0 are looked at negatively by credit ratings agencies.
urrent ratio is greater than 2.0 plus a margin of safety.

urrent ratio is greater than 2.0 plus a margin of safety.
at until you reach your target ‘Debt / Equity Percentage.’
something wrong with your build. Go back and re-do you build to find out what is wrong (check if your operating profit margins are too low (increase your prices a bit to fix this)
e and you already have a market share advantage and you have paid all your debt and have no more loans and you have done all the R&D that makes sense and your image i
ly high (you will need to understand how stock prices work in the players guide). The following year, when your share price is high, issue a bunch a shares while investing heav
Equity Percentage here is greater than 60:40, then... how to: ... reduce the number of shares that you are
how to: ... redo the previous steps from a for this pa
.....
he optimum scoring at your desired market share.
d how your grade is obtained by your professor (Tip: unless your professor has indicated otherwise, the game is NOT scored bas
e score and rank and instead invest as much in market share and R&D to gain the long term competitive advantages of economies of scale and cumulative R&D.
last year's numbers. how to: I pick this one and will save it for this round
because it has the highest likelihood of giving me the
best end-game score...
Test 6
2.0
30%
16.8
66.2%
A
100
wards one selection.
h excel, otherwise, just understand it notionally and make a decision).
rk the best) to correct for the addition of R&D. Save your build.
ut still respectable. But the Investor Expectation is only $1.00!

give you a return. There are only three long-term vehicles of
return of $10.00 throughout the game. When calculating end-
verall game profits, but because EPS score is based on average
t I swell! Look at me everyone, I'm first place for the first three
cause you hit the nitro too early.)
arren Buffett and Charlie Munger principles (and their more modern copy-cats: Mohnish Pabrai, Phil Town, Seth Klarman, Michael Burry, R
od companies (e.g Apple, Amazon, Google, Walmart, Proctor and Gambol, etc.) and layer some of thier strategies on top of what you see h
ou are going in the right direction or if there is something seriously wrong. Please give me a timeline or a text to let me know that you have
ght' PQ - just pick a target to test and write it down on a piece of paper and say the magical underlined phrase above. "The Procedure" will help you to find out if that target PQ
e magic words from Step 2 as well? (did people in the room look at you funny?)
size camera is different than the cost difference between a 9mm image sensor size and a 10mm image sensor size camera! They will also have different amount of effect on th
you have a low number of weeks and a high % discount it is the same as a high number of weeks with a low % discount.
year 5 is 1 week (people like to stick to near the defaults because they don't know any better - you can use this fact to your advantage)
each region roughly equal.
powerful than a set of specific numbers because The Procedure can react to what the competition will throw at you. "I pity the fool that use
g that is much better than the competitive assumption at the bottom.
er or are unsure of your forecast accuracy.

to work well because it will make your job easier the next year. For the very last year, you can allow retailer support budget to be zero if that gives you the best EPS because
book about Lean, which is what you are essentially doing here by iterating through the different ways to set price and marketing and discovering what the customer wants. This
ompensation. Leadership in business requires that you be different than the competition, else, how are you going to beat them if you are not different?
en you will need to suffer with that increase forever after. Workers don't like big drops, even if they had a big raise the last year and you are just bringing wages back to what the
ics upgrade without a return of investment would be folly!
nstead of me during the first round.
rous, I sometimes go with 5 points more than the highest value of the other competitors from the CIR.
y special contract offers.
e will increase (this is because it takes a while for a CSRC heavy brand to develop). Most of the time, the competition for the CSRC top spot makes it unprofitable to get image
tain to outweigh the advantages of CSRC.
es, then those share are no longer in circulation and all things being equal, your Earnings per Share will go up by that amount for every round after that. For example, an inves
every round after. Since the end game score that you receive for Earnings per Share is the average EPS for the game this will put a big dent in your earnings
one loan to payback another because the new loan is at a lower interest rate. For example, you might payback a loan of $100,000,000 @ 5.5% by taking out a loan of $100,00
ke and since it is very cheap to avoid, it is well worth the extra capital carrying costs.
y credit ratings agencies.
rease your prices a bit to fix this). It may be that you are expanding too fast (reduce your market share target and start from the beginning of the procedure). It may that you ar
at makes sense and your image is 100. The only other reason to issue dividends is because it is the last round of the game. I like to issue a dividend that is 80% of my EPS on
nch a shares while investing heavily in R&D to cause your share price to dive. Once your share price has gone down, buyback the shares that you issued for a discount. You j
mber of shares that you are repurchasing and...
us steps from a for this page.
game is NOT scored based on an average of the scores or ranks for each round! Instead, it is based on a set of end game criteria
d cumulative R&D.
Klarman, Michael Burry, Ray Dalio and Guy Spear) that made me see "value investing" in a new light. I attribute my wild success to them (
s on top of what you see here.
et me know that you have sent me an email with screenshots.
ill help you to find out if that target PQ that you just wrote down is the right PQ for the Competitive Assumptions that you entered in the first step (you need to go through the wh
o have different amount of effect on the PQ! What you really want to find through doing this procedure is what the optimal camera and drone design is for your target PQ that y
at you. "I pity the fool that uses these numbers" ~ Mr. One Letter Surname
that gives you the best EPS because there is no next year.
vering what the customer wants. This is easy with Glo-Bus, because the computer automatically calculates the "Projected EPS" given that your competitive assumptions are c
e just bringing wages back to what they were.

pot makes it unprofitable to get image points in this way (i.e. you would be better off getting image points through spending some of your EPS on market share or raising PQ)
und after that. For example, an investment in stock repurchase that gives you an extra $0.25 means that you will get an extra $0.25 of Earnings per Share for every round after
put a big dent in your earnings per share.
5.5% by taking out a loan of $100,000,000 @ 5.00% because you would rather be paying 5.00% interest per year on your loan than 5.50% interest.
g of the procedure). It may that you are already in so much debt that you have to pull a Tesla and issues shares.
e a dividend that is 80% of my EPS on the last round because it makes my share price shoot up.
s that you issued for a discount. You just played the stock market fraudulently, but Glo-Bus lets you do this.
on a set of end game criteria). For example, the image score at the end of the game only takes into account the last three years im
bute my wild success to them (I am now a Glo-Bus grand champion from 2018 and have coached several other players to their own Best St
st step (you need to go through the whole procedure to find out if that is the right PQ - do the whole procedure before you make a judgement on the target PQ). Call me if you s
one design is for your target PQ that you selected. It will make a difference to your profits of between 5-20% by the end of the game, especially if you are able to invest those e
at your competitive assumptions are correct. This has taught me that I should be doing this in real life business and not making relative changes (e.g. saying something like "we
EPS on market share or raising PQ)
rnings per Share for every round after your stock repurchase.
count the last three years image - all other image numbers are ignored, so you could have an image of 25 for the first half of the g
er players to their own Best Strategy Invitational Glo-Bus Grand Championships).
ent on the target PQ). Call me if you still have troubles. I promise it will be worth the call for those who are confused. You can do this. Glo-Bus is complicated in some ways, b
ecially if you are able to invest those extra profits in something that will in turn make more profits for your company, like R&D.
hanges (e.g. saying something like "well, the competition is reducing/increasing their prices/PQ/Marketing, so we should too..." is dumb because it isn't asking the right question
of 25 for the first half of the game and then score 100 for the last three rounds and then you would score a perfect score for image
lo-Bus is complicated in some ways, but it doesn't have to be impossible. We will get through this. You will be alright.
cause it isn't asking the right question, which is "what does the customer want to give me the highest profits?")
re a perfect score for image (and make your competition crazy because it will send their scores down). Credit rating and stock pr
). Credit rating and stock price is only based on the final year. Use this knowledge to your advantage - most Glo-Bus players ign
e - most Glo-Bus players ignore this in preferrence for single year ranking - you won't make this mistake. You will use
ke. You will use end-game score as your metric.
How to use Forecast Pages
1. Enter last year's actual values from the competitive intelligence report.
2. Change the competitive assumptions forecasts in GLO-BUS (marketing decision entry
pages) to the forecast shown in the spreadsheet:
2a. Use "Forecast" in years 6-8.
2b. Use "Maximum Forecast" in year 9. This will allow for a margin of safety from the
values
2c. Usealready shown.
"Average Forecast" in year 10-end
3. Save GLO-BUS.
How to use the Strategy Sensitivities page

1. Saving all your inputs in GLO-BUS (e.g. product design, marketing, finance, etc.).
2. In this spreadsheet, under the "Strategy Sensitivities" page, the "0" column, write down the expected EPS, ROE, CR, Image,
3. Check whether your strategy can withstand unexpected competition by calculating the strategy sensitivities: by changing the
3a. Change the Competitive Assumptions Forecast in GLO-BUS to one menu choice more competition (e.g. more competiti
3b. Change the Competitive Assumption Forecast in GLO-BUS for the rest of the strategy sensitivities: -2 represents two me
4. Once the 'Strategy Sensitivities' spreadsheet is complete, determine if your decision entries are acceptable. Unacceptable d
Why
Forecasting: Bonus points are awarded in GLO-BUS for the best forecasts. Bonus points are often the difference between a fir
Strategy Sensitivities: For more advanced players. There are some strategies in GLO-BUS that are vulnerable to attack by eith
R&D Calculation Benefit: determining when and how much R&D to invest to achieve the most benefit for the game. Maximize t
3-year Operating Projections: input the numbers you find in Glo-bus and it will determine what numbers you could put into your
Using this set of spreadsheets without understanding them is dangerous and will likely resu
Created by Patrick Law, w.patrick.law@gmail.com; please consider that using this is all on you - please do not cheat in the gam
pected EPS, ROE, CR, Image, Added Bank Loans, C. (Camera) Orders unfulfilled, D. (Drones) Orders unfulfilled, Net Income and Ending C
y sensitivities: by changing the Competitive Assumptions Forecast in GLO-BUS. Changing all of the com For example, . Record your resu
mpetition (e.g. more competition for price is one selection lower price, more competition for advertising budget is one selection higher mark
nsitivities: -2 represents two menu choices more competition, -3 represents three menu choices more competition, +1 represents one menu
e acceptable. Unacceptable decision entries cannot withstand -1 or -2 sensitivities. Robust decision entries can withstand up to -3 or -4
en the difference between a first place finish and a 3rd or 4th place finish. This spreadsheet is the GLO-BUS secret weapon for winning at
are vulnerable to attack by either a well organised competition or by a classroom full of people that don't have any clue how to play. Runnin
nefit for the game. Maximize the return on investment value. The percentage return on investment is not as important as getting a higher t
mbers you could put into your 3-year plan.
ous and will likely result in you failing your course. Understand it and then proceed. Cheers. Patrick
please do not cheat in the game. This is only to inform and educate you on how to better play globus in order to learn more. Using this so
led, Net Income and Ending Cash.
example, . Record your results in this spreadsheet for easy viewing if your chosen strategy has major sensitivities.
et is one selection higher marketing). Write down the resulting expected EPS, ROE, CR, Image, Added Bank Loans, C. (Camera) Orders u
tion, +1 represents one menu choice less competition.
can withstand up to -3 or -4 and +1 or +2 sensitivities. Make sure that you do not save any of the sensitivities other than the 0 sensitivity in
secret weapon for winning at forecasting what the competition is likely to do. Note: The first couple of years have less/no data to go on, so
any clue how to play. Running sensitivities will determine if your strategy can withstand strange events in the marketplace.
important as getting a higher total game EPS. This is a conservative calculation because it does not include the benefits to stock prices fro
ceed. Cheers. Patrick Law

r to learn more. Using this so that you don't have to use your brain is stupid. Get it together and use those business principles that you hav
Loans, C. (Camera) Orders unfulfilled, D. (Drones) Orders unfulfilled, Net Income and Ending Cash under the -1 column in the 'Strategy Se
s other than the 0 sensitivity in GLO-BUS.
have less/no data to go on, so the forecasts will be way off, but forecasts will get better as time goes on.
e marketplace. For example, a strategy may be excellent only if a very specific industry average occurs and disasterous if the competition
the benefits to stock prices from higher revenue or image impacts.
usiness principles that you have learned and if you haven't learned any business principles, email me and I can recommend a couple good
e -1 column in the 'Strategy Sensitivities' spreadsheet.
disasterous if the competition doesn't behave like you think it will - GLO-BUS will not behave the same way every time because you are pla
an recommend a couple good books or a course or two.

very time because you are playing against real people.
Forecast Sheet: Cameras Cameras inputs
Date:
YEAR 6
Forecast Yearly
NA Forecast Forecast Actual Variance Change
Price to Retailers $225.00 $225.00 $250.00 -10% 11%
P/Q Rating 4.0 4.0 -100%
Number of Models 3.0 3.0 -100%
Retailer Support ($/unit) $6.00 $6.00 -100%
Advertising Budget ($000) $2,500 $2,500 -100%
Website Displays ($000) $1,500 $1,500 -100%
Sales Promotions (# wks) 1 1 -100%
Sales Promotions (%) 10% 10% -100%
Warranty Period (days) 60 60 -100%
Europe
Price to Retailers $225.00 $225.00 -100%
P/Q Rating 4.0 4.0 -100%
Retailer Support $6.00 $6.00 -100%
Advertising Budget $1,400 $1,400 -100%
Website Displays (#) $1,200 $1,200 -100%
Warranty Period 60 60 -100%
Asia
P/Q Rating 4.0 4.0 -100%
Advertising Budget $1,000 $1,000 -100%
Website Displays $900 $900 -100%
Latin America
P/Q Rating 4.0 4.0 -100%
Advertising Budget $750 $750 -100%
Website Displays $600 $600 -100%
Notes:
Previous 7 8
Game Forecast
Variance Forecast Actual Variance Yearly Change Forecast Actual
5% $237.50 -100.00% $0.00
5% 0.0 0.0
5% 0.0 0.0
5% $0.00 $0.00
20% $0 $0
20% $0 $0
20% 0 0
20% 0% 0%
20% 0 0
5% $0.00 $0.00
5% 0.0 0.0
5% 0.0 0.0
5% $0.00 $0.00
20% $0 $0
20% $0 $0
20% 0 0
20% 0% 0%
20% 0 0
5% $0.00 $0.00
5% 0.0 0.0
5% 0.0 0.0
5% $0.00 $0.00
20% $0 $0
20% $0 $0
20% 0 0
20% 0% 0%
20% 0 0
5% $0.00 $0.00
5% 0.0 0.0
5% 0.0 0.0
5% $0.00 $0.00
20% $0 $0
20% $0 $0
20% 0 0
20% 0% 0%
20% 0 0
8 9
Forecast Yearly Max Average Forecast Yearly Maximum
Variance Change Forecast Forecast Actual Variance Change variance
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!



10
Average Max Average Actual Forecast Yearly Maximum
change Forecast Forecast Averages Actual Variance Change variance
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #DIV/0! #VALUE!



11
variance Forecast Forecast Averages Actual Variance Change variance
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! $250 #VALUE!



12
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! $250 #VALUE!



13



14
Average Max Average Actual
variance Forecast Forecast Averages
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #DIV/0!



Forecast Sheet: Drones inputs
Date:
YEAR: 6 Previous 7
Game
NA Forecast Actual Variance Variance Forecast
Average Retail Price ($/unit) $1,100 -100% 5% $0
Retailer Discount (%) 15% -100% 5% 0%
P/Q Rating 4.0 -100% 5% 0.0
Number of Models 2.00 -100% 5% 0.00
Website Displays ($000) $1,500 -100% 20% $0
Search Engine Ads. ($000) $1,500 -100% 20% $0
Retailer Recuitment ($/unit) $80.00 -100% 20% $0.00
Warranty Period (days) 60.00 -100% 20% 0.00
Europe
P/Q Rating 4.0 -100% 5% 0.0
Website Displays ($000) $1,200 -100% 20% $0
Search Engine Ads. ($000) $1,200 -100% 20% $0
Asia
P/Q Rating 4.0 -100% 5% 0.0
Website Displays ($000) $900 -100% 20% $0
Search Engine Ads. ($000) $600 -100% 20% $0
Latin America
P/Q Rating 4.0 -100% 5% 0.0
Website Displays ($000) $600 -100% 20% $0
Search Engine Ads. ($000) $300 -100% 20% $0
Notes:
7 8 9
Yearly Maximum Average
Actual Yearly Variance Forecast Actual Variance Forecast Forecast
$0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
0% #VALUE! #VALUE!
0.0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
0.00 #VALUE! #VALUE!
$0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
$0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
$0.00 #VALUE! #VALUE!
$0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
0% #VALUE! #VALUE!
0.0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
$0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
$0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
$0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
0% #VALUE! #VALUE!
0.0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
$0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
$0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
$0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
0% #VALUE! #VALUE!
0.0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
$0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
$0 #VALUE! #VALUE!
9 10
Yearly Maximum Average Forecast Yearly Maximum
Actual Variance Forecast Forecast Actual Variance Variance variance



11
variance Forecast Forecast Averages Actual Variance Variance variance



12
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!



13



14
Average Max Average Actual
variance Forecast Forecast Averages
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!



Year 6 Strategy
PQ 0.5/0.5, Models 7/7, XXXXXXXX R&D, Competitive Assumptions are two selections worse than starting assum
Changed the Competitive Assumptions from my forecast (e.g. -2 means two menu selections
competitive assumption)
Case/Sensitivity
Sensitivity Reviewed -4 -3 -2 -1
EPS
ROE
CR
Image
Added Bank Loans
C. Orders unfulfilled
D. Orders unfulfilled
Net Income
Ending Cash
Conclusions
Year 7 Strategy
PQ X.X/X.X, Models X/X, XXXXXXXX R&D, Competitive Assumptions are one selection worse than Year 6 actual p
Case/Sensitivity
EPS
ROE
CR
Image
Added Bank Loans
Net Income
Ending Cash
Conclusions
Year 8 Strategy
PQ X.X/X.X, Models X/X, XXXXXXXX R&D, Competitive Assumptions per forecast sheets
Case/Sensitivity
EPS
ROE
CR
Image
Added Bank Loans
Net Income
Ending Cash
Conclusions
Year 9 Strategy
Case/Sensitivity
EPS
ROE
CR
Image
Added Bank Loans
Net Income
Ending Cash
Conclusions
Year 10 Strategy
Case/Sensitivity
EPS
ROE
CR
Image
Added Bank Loans
Net Income
Ending Cash
Conclusions
Year 11 Strategy
Case/Sensitivity
EPS
ROE
CR
Image
Added Bank Loans
Net Income
Ending Cash
Conclusions
Year 12 Strategy
Case/Sensitivity
EPS
ROE
CR
Image
Added Bank Loans
Net Income
Ending Cash
Conclusions
Year 13 Strategy
Case/Sensitivity
EPS
ROE
CR
Image
Added Bank Loans
Net Income
Ending Cash
Conclusions
Year 14 Strategy
Case/Sensitivity
EPS
ROE
CR
Image
Added Bank Loans
Net Income
Ending Cash
Conclusions
Year 15 Strategy
Case/Sensitivity
EPS
ROE
CR
Image
Added Bank Loans
Net Income
Ending Cash
Conclusions
ctions worse than starting assumptions for each metric.
. -2 means two menu selections more competition for each
0 +1 +2
EPS, ROE, CR, Image, Added Bank Loans, C. (C
ction worse than Year 6 actual performance for each metric.

0 +1 +2
0 +1 +2
0 +1 +2
0 +1 +2
0 +1 +2
0 +1 +2
0 +1 +2
0 +1 +2
0 +1 +2
mage, Added Bank Loans, C. (Camera) Orders unfulfilled, D. (Drones) Orders unfulfilled, Net Income, Ending Cash
Approximate Return on R&D Investment This is the return from inves
Rate at which the company can compound money This is the expected return o
Number of Shares (thousands) estimate with the average n
Total R&D investment made (reduction in EPS) #DIV/0!

Total Return on R&D investment #DIV/0! This is the number that you
Return on Investment of R&D #DIV/0! This is to remind you to not
Calculation Table (thousands)
R&D Present (cumulative)
Year Investment Cumulative value Future value Year countdown
6 $ - $ - $ - 5
7 $ - $ - $ - 4
8 $ - $ - $ - 3
9 $ - $ - $ - 2
10 $ - $ - $ - 1
11 $ - $ - $ - 0
Totals $ - $ -
Conclusion: If you can compound money at a total of a 20% return per year inside your
business, invest a maximum amount of money into R&D for years 6 through 7 inclusive. Zero
R&D after that, unless you can compound at a higher rate (i.e. the competition is very weak).
This is the return from investing in R&D for every dollar spent on R&D (e.g. if $10,000 is spent on R&D, $1300 is returned every year after a
This is the expected return on risk capital expected in the future. Use the number that you expect for "Overall Operating Profit Margin" pe
estimate with the average number of shares throughout the game
This is the number that you want to maximize by changing the amounts of R&D Investment in the Table
This is to remind you to not have a negative. Do not maximize this.
returned every year after and compounded)
perating Profit Margin" performance.
Approximate Return on R&D Investment This is the return from inves
Rate at which the company can compound money This is the expected return o
Number of Shares (thousands) estimate with the average n
Total R&D investment made (reduction in EPS) #DIV/0!

Total Return on R&D investment #DIV/0! This is the number that you
Return on Investment of R&D #DIV/0! This is to remind you to not
Calculation Table (thousands)
R&D Present (cumulative)
Year Investment Cumulative value Future value Year countdown
6 $ - $ - $ - 9
7 $ - $ - $ - 8
8 $ - $ - $ - 7
9 $ - $ - $ - 6
10 $ - $ - $ - 5
11 $ - $ - $ - 4
12 $ - $ - $ - 3
13 $ - $ - $ - 2
14 $ - $ - $ - 1
15 $ - $ - $ - 0
Totals $ - $ -
Conclusion: If you can compound money at a total of a 20% return per year insdie your
business, invest a maximum amount of money into R&D for years 6 through 9 or 10 inclusive.
Zero R&D after that, unless you can compound at a higher rate (i.e. the competition is very
weak).
This is the return from investing in R&D for every dollar spent on R&D (e.g. if $10,000 is spent on R&D, $1300 is returned every year after a
This is the expected return on risk capital expected in the future. Use the number that you expect for "Overall Operating Profit Margin" pe
estimate with the average number of shares throughout the game
This is the number that you want to maximize by changing the amounts of R&D Investment in the Table
This is to remind you to not have a negative. Do not maximize this.
returned every year after and compounded)
perating Profit Margin" performance.
1. ALL Year 9 numbers input from "AC Camera Marketing" and "UAV Drone Marketing" page under the Decisions /
2. Year 10 and 11:
Average Net Revenue – constant per year with FX rate adjustment back to zero impact year 10 and 11.
Unit Sold – increase by 8% per year for NA and EA, increase by 15% per year for AP and LA; from Page 4 of th
Cost of Units Sold – change based on number of units sold
Delivery Expenses - constant
Marketing Expenses – increase by amount of Competition growth each year. See personal forecasting sprea
Admin – change based on number of units sold
Interest costs – constant (take out the same amount of money as paid off year 10 and 11)
Shares Retired – Maximum buyback up to 15MM shares outstanding
Dividends – maximum year 10 and 11 up to 2 times projected EPS and maintaining shareholder's equity >$1
3. Does this all actually make sense? references
AC Camera Unit Growth Rate 8% Page 4 Camera and Drone Journal
UAV Drone Unit Growth Rate 15% Page 4 Camera and Drone Journal
Wage Increase 1% Average wage increase for the company; Compensati
Marketing growth rate 11% Average competition variance from Forecast Sheets t
Increase in Average Net Revenue
(Decrease) -1% Average competition variance from Forecast Sheets t
NA Year 5 Year 6 Year 7

Change to zero Exchange Rate Impact
AC Cameras
Average Net Revenue ($ per unit) 190.49 179.15
Units Sold (000s) 485.9 496.4
Cost of Units Sold ($ per unit) 103.67 107.95
Delivery Expenses ($ per unit) 5 5
Marketing Expenses ($ per unit) 34.99 26.59
Administrative Expenses ($ per unit) 5.24 6.4
UAV Drones
Units Sold (000s) 98.3 104.4
Delivery Expenses ($ per unit) 46.01 43
EA
AC Cameras
Units Sold (000s) 419.8 412.8
Delivery Expenses ($ per unit) 13.2 12.6
UAV Drones
Units Sold (000s) 85.2 76.4
AP
AC Cameras
Units Sold (000s) 362.5 373
UAV Drones
Units Sold (000s) 58.2 51.1
LA
AC Cameras
Units Sold (000s) 239.8 251.1
UAV Drones
Units Sold (000s) 37.9 29
Total Cameras Sold (000s) 0.0 1508.0 1533.3

Total Drones Sold (000s) 0.0 279.6 260.9
Net Revenues
AC Cameras $0 $281,664 $283,139
UAV Dromes $0 $258,183 $247,932
Total $0 $539,847 $531,071
Cost of Units Sold $0 $281,248 $303,888
Delivery Costs $0 $39,360 $35,992
Marketing Costs $0 $104,402 $76,197
Administrative Expenses $0 $9,923 $12,084
Total Operating Profit $0 $104,914 $102,910
LT debt average interest rate 5.4% 7.4%

Tax Rate 30.0% 30.0%
Interest Costs $ 10,300 $ 21,029

Pre-Tax Profit $94,614 $81,881
Income Taxes $28,384 $24,564
Net Profit $66,230 $57,317
Share Repurchase and Dividend Cash Flow

Ending Common Stock Outstanding 20000 19800 19500
Share Repurchase 0 200 300
Average price paid per share $ - $ 12.12 $ 111.92
Par Value $ 0.50 $ 0.50 $ 0.50
Cash Spent on Share Repurchase $ - $ 2,424 $ 33,576
Dividends Paid ($ per share) $ - $ - $ -
Cash Spent on Dividends $ - $ - $ -
New Debt $ 164,000 $ 21,000
Statement of Shareholder's Equity
Starting Total Shareholder Equity $ 99,538 $ 114,538 $ 178,344
Contributed Capital / Common Stock
Starting Period Contributed Capital $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 9,900
Stock Issue & Other $ - -$ 100 -$ 150
Ending Period Contributed Capital $ 10,000 $ 9,900 $ 9,750
Retained Earnings
Starting Period Retained Earnings $ 9,538 $ 24,538 $ 90,768
Net Income / After-Tax Profit $ 15,000 $ 66,230 $ 57,317
Dividends $ - $ - $ -
Ending Period Retained Earnings $ 24,538 $ 90,768 $ 148,084
Other Shareholder's Equity / Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income / Additional Capital
Starting Period Other Shareholder's Equity $ 80,000 $ 80,000 $ 77,676
Other Changes in Equity $ - -$ 2,324 -$ 33,426
Ending Other Shareholder's Equity $ 80,000 $ 77,676 $ 44,250
Ending Total Shareholder Equity $ 114,538 $ 178,344 $ 202,084
Average Shareholder Equity $ 107,038 $ 146,441 $ 190,214
Selected Financial Statistics
Current Liabilities $ 52,125 $ 65,364 $ 67,610
LT Debt $ 110,000 $ 274,000 $ 295,000
Total Liabilities $ 162,125 $ 339,364 $ 362,610
Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity $ 276,663 $ 517,708 $ 564,694
Debt/Equity Ratio 1.51 2.32 1.91
%Debt 59% 66% 64%
%Equity 41% 34% 36%
Return on Average Equity 14.0% 45.2% 30.1%
Earnings per Share $ 0.75 $ 3.34 $ 2.94
Targets
EPS
ROE
Share Price
Ending Cash
Dividend Payout Ratio
Estimated Cash Flow Statement
Starting Cash
Change in Cash
Ending Cash
Dividend Payout Ratio

eting" page under the Decisions / Reports Menu "DECISION ENTRIES - YEAR 9". Note that the UAV Drone numbers have to be calculated b
zero impact year 10 and 11.

ar for AP and LA; from Page 4 of the Camera and Drone Journal
ar. See personal forecasting spreadsheet page. input

input
year 10 and 11)
ntaining shareholder's equity >$100million
Drone Journal
Drone Journal
ase for the company; Compensation & Facilities
n variance from Forecast Sheets trend (3-year plans are likely to stabilize most company's strategies).
n variance from Forecast Sheets trend (3-year plans are likely to stabilize most company's strategies).
Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12

4.36% 0% 0% Corporate Lobby exchange rate change
145.52 138.64 143.24 141.81 140.39

662.7 574.8 620.8 670.4 724.1
81.25 78.66 73.56 68.79 64.33
5 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
27.16 28.27 31.38 34.83 38.66
5.01 5.27 4.88 4.52 4.18
840.37 795.19 821.56 813.34 805.21 841.62 706.97

142 144.7 166.4 191.4 220.1 94.8 49.9
369.39 406.07 356.64 313.22 275.09 406.02 406.17
40 42.76 42.76 42.76 42.76 60 10
211.27 170.00 188.70 209.46 232.50 161.39 186.37
6.62 6.97 6.06 5.27 4.58 6.97 6.97
-3.61% 0% 0% Corporate Lobby exchange rate change
141.44 155.97 148.84 147.35 145.87

504.7 466.5 503.8 544.1 587.7
81.24 78.66 73.56 68.79 64.33
11.2 11.48 11.48 11.48 11.48
29.72 28.4 31.52 34.99 38.84
5.01 5.26 4.87 4.51 4.18
795.57 890.16 849.45 840.95 832.54 933.53 784.16
122 110.9 127.5 146.7 168.7 78.7 32.2
369.35 406.10 356.66 313.24 275.11 406.18 405.9
71.92 76.81 76.81 76.81 76.81 96.04 40.28
196.72 156.17 173.35 192.42 213.59 166.45 136.65
6.62 6.97 6.06 5.27 4.58 6.98 6.96
131.31 140.93 137.64 136.26 134.90

461.7 495.1 534.7 577.5 623.7
81.24 78.65 73.55 68.79 64.33
14.18 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00
27.29 24.34 27.02 29.99 33.29
5.01 5.27 4.88 4.52 4.18
684.34 849.97 830.11 821.81 813.59 889.75 747.4

93.3 84.1 96.7 111.2 127.9 60.6 23.5
369.37 406.18 356.73 313.31 275.16 406.02 406.6
85.43 92.65 92.65 92.65 92.65 112.81 54.34
126.47 176.23 195.61 217.13 241.01 206.27 119.15
6.62 6.97 6.06 5.27 4.58 6.96 6.98
130.7 145.98 142.92 141.49 140.07

327.9 301.9 326.1 352.1 380.3
81.24 78.66 73.56 68.79 64.33
14 14.30 14.30 14.30 14.30
27.45 28.82 31.99 35.51 39.42
5.01 5.27 4.88 4.52 4.18
698.04 828.36 810.97 802.86 794.83 871.61 732.12

50.6 48.7 56.0 64.4 74.1 33.6 15.1
369.41 366.65 322.02 282.82 248.39 366.67 366.62
85.89 91.51 91.51 91.51 91.51 111.61 53.31
114.62 184.45 204.73 227.26 252.25 208.33 139.07
6.62 6.96 6.05 5.26 4.57 6.96 6.95
1957.0 1838.3 1985.4 2144.2 2315.7

407.9 388.4 446.7 513.7 590.7
$271,303 $266,296 $284,100 $303,760 $324,780
$315,562 $325,606 $370,748 $422,097 $480,557
$586,865 $591,902 $654,848 $725,857 $805,337
$309,662 $300,407 $303,411 $306,445 $309,509
$46,875 $46,431 $52,032 $58,365 $65,529
$126,199 $115,972 $144,134 $179,306 $223,274
$12,505 $12,390 $12,390 $12,390 $12,390
$91,625 $116,702 $142,881 $169,351 $194,636
8.5% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%

30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
$ 21,373 $12,880 $11,412 $10,509 $9,740

$70,252 $103,822 $131,470 $158,842 $184,896
$21,076 $31,147 $39,441 $47,653 $55,469
$49,176 $72,676 $92,029 $111,189 $129,427
19300 18142 17342 16792 16492

200 1158 800 550 300
$ 87.87 $ 65.16 $ 100.00 $ 150.00 $ 250.00
$ 0.50 $ 0.50 $ 0.50 $ 0.50 $ 0.50
$ 17,574 $ 75,455 $ 80,000 $ 82,500 $ 75,000
$ - $ 0.60 $ 1.33 $ 2.32 $ 3.53 Use dividend payout ratio
$ - $ 10,901 $ 23,007 $ 38,916 $ 58,242
-$ 85,000 $ 70,000 $ 25,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000
$ 202,084 $ 233,687 $ 220,006 $ 209,028 $ 198,801
$ 9,750 $ 9,650 $ 9,071 $ 8,671 $ 8,396

-$ 100 -$ 579 -$ 400 -$ 275 -$ 150
$ 9,650 $ 9,071 $ 8,671 $ 8,396 $ 8,246
$ 148,084 $ 197,261 $ 259,035 $ 328,057 $ 400,330

$ 49,176 $ 72,676 $ 92,029 $ 111,189 $ 129,427
$ - $ 10,901 $ 23,007 $ 38,916 $ 58,242
$ 197,261 $ 259,035 $ 328,057 $ 400,330 $ 471,515
$ 44,250 $ 26,776 -$ 48,100 -$ 127,700 -$ 209,925

-$ 17,474 -$ 74,876 -$ 79,600 -$ 82,225 -$ 74,850
$ 26,776 -$ 48,100 -$ 127,700 -$ 209,925 -$ 284,775
$ 233,687 $ 220,006 $ 209,028 $ 198,801 $ 194,986
$ 217,886 $ 226,846 $ 214,517 $ 203,914 $ 196,893
$ 66,404 $ 66,315 $ 71,620 $ 77,350 $ 83,538 Estimate that Current Liabilities will change the
$ 210,000 $ 280,000 $ 248,078 $ 228,456 $ 211,733
$ 276,404 $ 346,315 $ 319,698 $ 305,806 $ 295,271
$ 510,091 $ 566,321 $ 528,726 $ 504,607 $ 490,256
1.27 1.53 1.49 1.50 1.50 Target Interest Expense 1.5 keeps the negative
54% 61% 60% 61% 60%
46% 39% 40% 39% 40%
22.6% 32.0% 42.9% 54.5% 65.7%
$ 2.55 $ 4.01 $ 5.31 $ 6.62 $ 7.85
$ 4.00 $ 5.25 $ 6.50 $ 7.50

30% 33% 35% 38%
$90 $120 $150 $180
$59,190 $65,485 $72,586 $80,534 6% of the revenue
15% 25% 35% 45%
$ 6,082 $ 53,601 $ 67,623 $ 72,396

$ 47,519 $ 14,022 $ 4,773 $ 11,185
$ 53,601 $ 67,623 $ 72,396 $ 83,581
15% 25% 35% 45%

s have to be calculated because they are split into two: "direct" and "3rd-party" sales.
ange rate change
ange rate change

ange rate change
ange rate change

Take home messages
lower dividend for this time to 0.40$
Liabilities will change the same amount as Camera Unit Demand
se 1.5 keeps the negative impact of debt from impacting the credit rating given that the ending cash is always at least $35k for each year.
st $35k for each year.
How much is each dollar of EPS and each percentage of ROE worth?
EPS to score conversion

Y6 input
Y7 input
Y8 input
Y9 input
Y10 input
Y11 input
Y12 input
Y13 input
Y14 input
Y15 input
Total game IE EPS 0
total Game IE EPS +40% to achieve bonus 4 points 0
number of years of the game input
IE EPS Wgt. Avg. #DIV/0!
40% more than IE Wgt. Avg. #DIV/0!
Points gained for EPS Wgt. Avg. Metric input
Points gained for 40% more than Wgt. Avg. input
Under IE EPS value (points per $1 EPS) #DIV/0!
Over IE EPS value (points per $1 EPS) #DIV/0!
Estimated BII EPS value (points per $1 EPS) #DIV/0!
Points for more than the total game IE EPS +40% 0
Conclusion: If you are under the Investors Expectation (IE) for the
game, not the individual year then each dollar of EPS is worth 0.3
end-game points. If you are above the Investors Expectation (IE) for
the game, not the individual year, then each dollar of EPS is worth
0.15 end-game points. Only end-game points matter in Glo-Bus.
ROE to score conversion
Y6 input
Y7 input
Y8 input
Y9 input
Y10 input
Y11 input
Y12 input
Y13 input
Y14 input
Y15 input
Total game IE ROE 0
total Game IE ROE +40% to achieve bonus 4 points 0
number of years input
IE ROE Wgt. Avg. #DIV/0!
40% more than ROE Wgt. Avg. #DIV/0!
Points gained for ROE Wgt. Avg. Metric input
Points gained for 40% more than Wgt. Avg. input
Under IE ROE value (points per % ROE) #DIV/0!
Over IE ROE value (points per % ROE) #DIV/0!
BII ROE value (points per % ROE) #DIV/0!
Points for more than the total game IE ROE +40% 0
Conclusion: If you are under the Investors Expectation (IE) for the
game, not the individual year then each percentage point of ROE is
worth 0.06 end-game points. If you are above the Investors
Expectation (IE) for the game, not the individual year, then each
percentage point of ROE is worth 0.03 end-game points. Only end-
game points matter in Glo-Bus.
Image to score conversion (image only counts in the last three years of the game)
Y13 input
Y14 input
Y15 input
Final Year three year average IE image 0
Final Year three year average IE image for bonus 100
Points gained for IE input
Points gained for maximum IE input
Under IE image point value (points per image) #DIV/0!
Over IE image point value (points per image) 0.00
BII image value (points per image) #DIV/0!
Points for more than 100 image 0
Point for image before the last three years 0
Conclusion: Image is worth 0.25 if below IE and 0.15 if above IE.
Credit Rating to score conversion (Credit Rating only counts in the last year of the game)
Credit Rating IE points BII points
A+ 24 20
A 22 19
A- 20
B+ 18
B
B-
C+
C
C- 1
Conclusion: BII assumes the greatest credit rating is A+.

GLO BUS Forecast Sheet Template 2020-06-16

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Note Well: The majority of problems that people have with this procedure stem from the fact

that they ignore step 4. S

average competitive assumptio

Step 2: Pick a target PQ and target market share.

Special Contract Offers

how to: ...if the

how to: ...OR th

Finance & Cash Flow

how to: Increa

how to: see the rough table on "The Procedure" page

R&D: research and development; decreases the cost

or the lowest "Total Camera Production/Assembly Cost" per unit.

how to: ...to get the lowest number he

sales promotions: part of Marketing

how to: try out multiple combinations of

how to: set base wage.

how to: set these to get the highest EPS.

how to: set the factory size...

makes the "Assembly Capacity" equal the "Projected Camera Demand"

how to: change the special discount offer...

how to: ...until the Value Index becomes an amount mo

how to: change one of these...

how to: ...if the Earnings Per Share goes down

how to: increase stock repurchase until it is at

how to: If the interest rate for any of the selec

how to: Increase these until...

how to: If the Debt / Equity Percentage here is greater

Test 1 Test 2 Test 3 Test 4 Test 5

w to: ...holding this constant ...

to: ...to get the lowest number here.

try out multiple combinations of

fit margin in any one region.

es you the best EPS.

change one of these...

ease stock repurchase until it is at a maximum

he interest rate for any of the selections here...

urrent ratio is greater than 2.0 plus a margin of safety.

at until you reach your target ‘Debt / Equity Percentage.’

he optimum scoring at your desired market share.

wards one selection.

h excel, otherwise, just understand it notionally and make a decision).

ut still respectable. But the Investor Expectation is only $1.00!

er or are unsure of your forecast accuracy.

mber of shares that you are repurchasing and...

us steps from a for this page.

e just bringing wages back to what they were.

How to use the Strategy Sensitivities page

ceed. Cheers. Patrick Law

s other than the 0 sensitivity in GLO-BUS.

an recommend a couple good books or a course or two.

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