Demographic Trends

Let us see what are the two basic subdivisions of Demography( Science of the logical and
systematic study of people and various related aspects)

Demographic
Processes

Demography

Demographic
Structures

So what do Demographic Processes and Demographic Structures mean?

Demographic Processes – Fertility, Mortality, Migration etc

Demographic Structures – Age composition of population, male female composition, regional

composition, social composition etc

Social Demography consists of these two as well as the social processes and social structures which
include a number of variables like socialization, communication, cultural transformation, values, beliefs
etc

All the above bullshit is written just to define the various domains in which questions could arise
from this topic
 Demographic Trends

Crude death rate Number of deaths during the year

(CDR) -------------------------------------------------- x 1000
Mid-year population

Infant mortality rate Number of infant deaths during the year

(IMR) ----------------------------------------------------------- x 1000
Number of live births during the year
Infant mortality rate comprises of two parts, viz. Neo-natal mortality rate and Post neo-natal
mortality rate.
The neo-natal mortality rate also comprises of two parts viz. Early neo-natal mortality rate and
late neo-natal mortality rate.
These are defined as:
Neo-natal mortality Number of infant deaths of < than 29 days during the year
rate (NMR) --------------------------------------------------------------------- x 1000
Number of live births during the year
Early neo-natal Number of infant deaths of < than 7 days during the year
mortality rate ------------------------------------------------------------------------ x 1000
Number of live births during the year
Number of infant deaths of 7 days to < than 29 days during
Late neo-natal the year
mortality rate ----------------------------------------------------------------------- x 1000
Number of live births during the year
Number of infant deaths of 29 days to < than one year during
Post neo-natal the year
mortality rate(PNMR) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- x 1000
Number of live births during the year
Number of still births and infant deaths of < than 7 days during
Peri-natal mortality the year
Rate (PMR) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ x 1000
Number of live births and still births during the year

World Population Trends:

Obviously, it is continuously increasing. About three fourths of the world population lives in the
developing countries

Growth rates are not uniform in the world. Approx 95 % of this growth is occurring in developing
countries
 Demographic Trends

UNFPA estimates that the world population is to become 10 billion by 2050

Demographic Trends in India:

India’s population reached the billion mark(100 crore) by 1998

India’s population as per the 2011 Census is 121.02 crore. Second most populous country in the
world.

India’s Population as of 2015 is about 1.28 Billion

With only 2.4% of world land area india is supporting more than 17.5% of its population

Annual growth rate is 1.76% as per 2011 census

The year 1921 is called the “Year of Great Divide” as the growth rate after this has been very sharp.

1951-1981 may be called the years when the “Population Explosion” Happened

Let us see the 10 year or decadal growth rates of population in India:

1901- 1911- 1921- 1931- 1941- 1951- 1961- 1971- 1981- 1991- 2001-
1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
5.7% 0.3% 11% 14.2% 13.3% 21.5% 24.8% 24.8% 23.5% 21.34% 17.64%

So what caused this population explosion?

 Excess of Birth Over Deaths: Obviously because Birth rate – Death Rate = Growth rate (We
will see the trends on Birth and Death rates)
 Progress in medical knowledge: Helps reduce death rate and increase birth rate
 Improvement in Transportation facilities
 Improvement in field of agriculture and industry
 Social factors like universal marriage, child marriage, early marriage
 Social attitudes of Indians like ignorance, absence of recreational facilities, attitudes of
conservatism etc
 Lack of conscious family planning
 Climatic conditions of India – More hot climate more sex

Now come to the core – Trends/ Demographic Trends

 Demographic Trends

 Growth Rate of Population:

We have already seen the decadal growth rates. Now annual growth rates in India was
0.56% in 1911, which went to a record height of 2.22% in 1981 and them came down to
1.9% in 2001 and further to 1.76% in 2011

 Birth Rates and Death Rates:

The birth rates and death rates in India show that death rate has considerably declined from
42.6 in 1911 to 8.7 in 2001; Birth Rates have declined niggardly from 49.2 in 1911 to 26.1
per thousand populations in 2001.

The Estimated birth rate declined from 25.8 in 2000 to 22.1 in 2010, while the death rate
declined from 8.5 to 7.2 per 1000 population over the same period. The natural growth rate
declined from 17.3 in 2000 to 14.9 in 2010 as per the latest available information. The
population, however, continues to grow, as the decline in the birth rate is not as rapid as
the decline in the death rate

The crude birth rate is 21.8 as per 2011 census. So, there is an overall declining trend but
not as steep as it is for death rate. The crude death rate as per 2011 census is 7.1. However,
regarding birth rates and death rates it is important to note that birth rate is higher and
death rate is also higher in Rural areas as compared to urban areas.

 Uneven Distribution of Population

Just 10 states have more than 76.34% of the population with UP highest(16%) followed by
Maharashtra and Bihar

 Age Composition:

As per 2011 Census

0-14 yrs 29.5%
15-59 yrs 62.5%
>60 8%

It may be noted that the number of children 0-6 yrs has declined by 5 million over the 2001 census.
In general proportion of population below 15 years is showing a decline and the proportion of
elderly people is increasing

 Sex Composition
 Demographic Trends

The country has a low sex ratio (No. of females per thousand males) of 940 female per
thousand male, which has shown slight improvement during the last decade.

1901 972 70
1911 964
60
1921 955
1931 950 50
1941 945 40
1951 946
1961 941 30
1971 930 20
1981 934
10
1991 927
2001 933 0
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
2011 940

Sex ratio is higher in urban areas and among the educated than rural and uneducated areas

Two places where women outnumber men are Kerala and Pondicherry (Sex Ratio greater
than 1000)

13 States have Sex Ratio above national level and twelve states below national level

 Density of Population

Density defined as the average number of persons living in a square kilometer

1901 77 70
1911 82 60
1921 81
50
1931 90
1941 103 40

1951 117 30
1961 142 20
1971 177
10
1981 216
0
1991 267
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
2001 324
2011 382
 Demographic Trends

Delhi is the most densely populated with 11297 persons per square km and Arunachal
Pradesh is least densely populated with 17 persons per square km.

It can be observed that density is consistently increasing over the decades

 Life Expectancy

Average number of years a person may expect to live according to the mortality pattern
prevalent in that country

In 1901, the life expectancy of males and females at birth was found to be 23.63 years and
23.93 years respectively. The figures have increased consistently over the decades and reached
about 62.80 and 63.80 for males and females

Life expectancy is considered as one of the best indicators of development by demographers

 Urbanization

Urbanization is taking place at a relatively greater speed in India.

The proportion of urban population has increased from 10.84% in 1901 to 31.6% in 2011.

In 2001 it was 27.8%, which shows that percentage of urban population has increased
marginally

The trend is continuously upward

Mega Cities – Population of more than 10 million

As per 2011 census there are three mega cities – Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata

Mumbai is the largest city and Delhi is the largest urban agglomeration

Urban Agglomeration – City plus outgrowths

Outgrowths- Any village or town adjoining the city with infrastructure similar to the city

 Literacy Structure
 Demographic Trends

In 2011, the literacy was 74.04% (82.14% males and 65.46% females)

Kerala – Highest – 93.91%

Bihar- Lowest- 63.82%

Percentage of No. of years of

people out of education
total literates

56.7% <3 years

23.8% 3-6 years

11 7-11 years

6.8% 12-14yrs

1.7% >14 yrs

The literacy rates of females in the last decade 2001-2011 has increased considerably from 53.67%
to 65.46% (a differential of 11.8%) whereas the differential is only 6.9% in case of males

Literacy
Year Rate(Overall) Male Female
1951 18.33 27.16 8.86
1961 28.3 40.4 15.35
1971 34.45 45.96 21.97
1981 43.57 56.38 29.76
1991 52.21 64.13 39.29
2001 65.38 75.85 54.16
2011 74.04 82.14 65.46
It is evident that the gap between female and male literacy rates is closing faster than ever from
1991 onwards
 Demographic Trends

100
80
60
40
20
0
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

 Population Policy:

India formed its first National Population Policy in the year 1976

Jt called for an increase in minimum age for marriage from 15 to 18 for females and from 18 to 21
for males

The policy was modified in 1977 and the new policy statement emphasized the importance of small
family norm without compulsion and changed programme title to “Family Welfare Programme”

The target of NPP 2000 which is the latest in the series was to bring the TFR to replacement levels
by 2010.(To understand TFR replacement levels see appendix 1)

Other targets:

1. IMR(Infant Mortality Rate) to below 30 per 1000 live births

2. MMR(Maternal Mortality Rate) to below100 per 1 lakh live births
3. Universal immunization for all children for all preventable diseases
4. 80% institutional deliveries and 100% deliveries by trained persons
5. 100% registration of birth deaths, marriage and pregnancy

India launched a family planning programme in 1952. Though the birth rate started decreasing, it
was accompanied by a sharp decrease in death rate, leading to an overall increase in population.

The National Health Policy was then designed in 1983. It stressed the need for ‘securing the small
family norm, through voluntary efforts and moving towards the goal of population stabilization’.
While adopting the Health Policy, Parliament emphasized the need for a separate National
Population Policy.

This was followed by the National Population Policy in 2000. The immediate objective of the policy
was to address the unmet needs for contraception, health care infrastructure and personnel, and
to provide integrated service delivery for basic reproductive and child health care. The medium-
term objective was to bring TFR (Total Fertility Rate – the average number of children a woman
 Demographic Trends

bears over her lifetime) to replacement levels by 2010. In the long term, it targeted a stable
population by 2045, ‘at a level consistent with the requirements of sustainable economic growth,
social development, and environmental protection.

Important for exam:

Age-Specific Fertility Rates and the Total
Fertility Rate
Definition
The Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR) is the number of live births per 1000 women in a specific
age group for a specified geographic area and for a specific point in time, usually a calendar year.

Calculation

Number of live births to

women in specified age group
x 1000
Number of women in same age
group

For example, 72,000 live births in 2011 occurred to women 20 to 24 years old in country X, where
there are a total of 310,000 women 20-24 years old in that year. The ASFR for the age group 20-
24 is then 232.3 births per 1000 women (=[72000/310000] * 1000).

ASFRs can be calculated for single years of age but are often calculated for the seven five-year
age groups covering the reproductive years 15 to 49 (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44
and 45-49).

The data sources for fertility rates are vital registration, population censuses, and population-
based surveys.

Purpose
ASFRs are important measures in
fertility studies because the likelihood of Age- specific fertility rates for
having a child varies by age. For Italy 2006 and Zambia 2006
example, in Zambia the age pattern of 300
Age-specific fertility rates per 1,000

fertility seen in its ASFRs suggests that

women are bearing children at young 250
ages, peaking at age 20-24. Italy, by
comparison, has a later age pattern of
fertility with childbearing delayed and 200
concentrated at the older ages of 30-
1
34. The ASFRs are also considerably 150
1
higher for Zambia as compared to Italy.
100
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the
average number of children that would 50
be born alive to a woman during her
lifetime if she were to pass through her
0
childbearing years having births
according to the current schedule of 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44
age-specific fertility rates. Age groups
Italy Zambia
To calculate the TFR, one sums the
single year ASFRs. Or if ASFRs are
defined for the seven five-year age groups, then one sums all seven and multiplies the total by 5,
since there are 5 years in each age group. In the ASFR graph above, the TFR for Zambia is 6.2
children per woman and is 1.4 for Italy.
 The graph on the left
shows TFRs in 1990
and 2010 for the world
2
and its major regions.
Currently. the average
woman in the world
would bear 2.5 children
in her lifetime at
current rates. In sub-
Saharan Africa the
TFR for 2010 is
highest at 5.1 births.
TFRs tend to be higher
in developing countries
than in more
industrialized
countries.

A concept that is widely associated with TFR is replacement level fertility. A TFR of 2.1 is
replacement fertility since an average of two births is needed to “replace” a mother and father but
only if the births survive to reproductive age. An extra 0.1 birth is added to offset the effects of
premature death.

Higher fertility in developing countries occurs for a number of reasons all of which work
synergistically and to varying degrees depending on the country, religion, culture, and social
norms. These reasons include but are not limited to the following:
• lack of availability to affordable family planning,
• religious restrictions on the use of family planning,
• a desire for more children as labor supply and for security in old age,
• a desire for one or more children of a particular gender
• female literacy, and
• female participation in the workforce

Sources
1
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Fertility Data 2008.
2
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Prospects: The 2010
Revision.
 FIGURES AT A GLANCE, INDIA - 2011

Item Total Rural Urban

I. Percentage distribution of population by broad age groups

0-14 29.5 30.9 25.5
15-59 62.5 61.0 66.6
60+ 8.0 8.1 7.9

II. Fertility Indicators

Crude Birth Rate 21.8 23.3 17.6
General Fertility Rate 81.2 88.9 62.0
Age-specific Fertility Rate
15-19 30.7 35.3 16.5
20-24 196.7 216.8 143.8
25-29 153.4 163.7 129.6
30-34 69.8 74.6 58.8
35-39 26.4 30.2 16.8
40-44 8.7 10.9 3.6
45-49 2.8 3.6 1.0
Total Fertility Rate 2.4 2.7 1.9
Gross Reproduction Rate 1.2 1.3 0.9
General Marital Fertility Rate 114.4 123.7 90.0
Total Marital Fertility Rate 4.3 4.4 3.8
Mean age at effective marriage for females 21.2 20.7 22.7

III. Total Fertility Rate by level of education of the mother

Illiterate 3.3 3.4 2.5
Literate 2.1 2.3 1.8
Without any formal
3.1 3.2 2.9
education
Below primary 3.0 3.2 2.3
Primary 2.5 2.7 2.2
Middle 2.2 2.3 1.9
Class X 1.8 1.9 1.6
Class XII 1.5 1.7 1.3
Graduate and above 1.6 1.8 1.5

IV. Percentage distribution of live births by birth order

1 41.0 39.5 46.6
2 31.4 30.8 33.5
3 14.6 15.4 11.8
4+ 13.0 14.3 8.0

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 FIGURES AT A GLANCE, INDIA - 2011

Item Total Rural Urban

V. Percentage distribution of Current live births by birth interval (in months)

10-12 1.7 1.7 1.4

12-18 10.8 11.1 9.6
18-24 15.0 15.6 12.5
24-30 18.0 18.7 14.9
30-36 12.2 12.6 10.4
36+ 42.4 40.2 51.2

VI. Mortality Indicators

Crude Death Rate 7.1 7.6 5.7
Percentage of infant deaths
to total deaths 13.6 14.8 9.0
Percentage of deaths of less than one week
54.1 55.6 45.0
to total infant deaths
Under-five Mortality Rate 55 61 35
Infant Mortality Rate 44 48 29
Neo-natal mortality rate 31 34 17
Early neo-natal mortality rate 24 27 13
Late neo-natal mortality rate 7 7 4
Post neo-natal mortality rate 14 14 12
Peri-natal Mortality Rate 30 33 19
Still Birth Rate 6 6 6

VII. Percentage distribution of births by type of medical attention at delivery

Government Hospital 45.2 43.2 52.4
Private Hospital 21.4 17.5 35.5
Qualified Professional 13.7 15.1 9.0
Untrained Functionary and Others 19.6 24.2 3.1

VIII. Percentage distribution of deaths by type of medical attention before death

Government Hospital 21.7 19.5 29.7
Private Hospital 12.5 10.5 19.6
Qualified Professional 37.8 38.6 35.1
Untrained Functionary and Others 28.1 31.5 15.6

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 FIGURES AT A GLANCE, NATURAL DIVISIONS (RURAL) - 2011

Indicators State Natural Division Max./Min. Values

Birth rate
Madhya Pradesh Vindhya Maximum 32.2
Kerala Southern Minimum 13.6

Death rate
Madhya Pradesh Central Maximum 11.6
Jammu & Kashmir Outer Hills Minimum 4.4

Infant mortality rate

Madhya Pradesh Central Maximum 75
Kerala Southern Minimum 12

FIGURES AT A GLANCE, FOUR METRO CITIES - 2009-11

Cities Birth rate Death rate Infant mortality rate

Chennai 15.5 5.1 21
Delhi 18.1 4.4 32
Kolkata 9.8 6.5 19
Mumbai 15.0 5.9 20

Note : Birth rate, Death rate and Infant mortality rate for metro cities are for the period 2009-11

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