STATS 100A HW3

Problem 1 Suppose at any moment, the probability of fire in a classroom is α. Suppose the
conditional probability of alarm given fire is β, and the conditional probability of alarm given
no fire is γ. Calculate the conditional probability of fire given alarm. How come P (f ire|alarm)
and P (alarm|f ire) can be so different? Please explain your calculation by counting hypothetical
repetitions. For instance, suppose α = 1/1000, and β = 99/100, and γ = 2/100. Imagine we repeat
the experiments 100,000 times. Then on average, 100 times there is fire. Out of these 100 times,
99 times there is alarm, and so on.
A: Let A be the event of alarm, and F be the event of fire.
P (A) = P (F )P (A|F ) + P (F c )P (A|F c ) = αβ + (1 − α)γ.

P (F ∩ A)
P (F |A) =
P (A)
P (F )P (A|F )
=
P (F )P (A|F ) + P (F c )P (A|F c )
αβ
= .
αβ + (1 − α)γ

If α → 0, then P (F |A) → 0, even if P (A|F ) is close to 1.

We expect 100 times there is fire. In total, 99 × 3 times there is alarm. 99 times there is true
alarm, and 99 × 2 times there is false alarm. When there is alarm, 1/3 times there is fire.
Problem 2 (Optional) Read

https://www.norsys.com/tutorials/netica/secA/tut_A1.htm

write a brief summary.