SECTION-C Multiple Choice Questions lect the correct alternative out of given ones: Q.1 A time series is a set of data recorded: (a) periodically (b) at time or space intervals (c) at successive points of time (a) all the above Q.2- The time series analysis helps: (a) ta compare the two or more series (a) to know the behaviour of business (c), to make predictions (d¥ all the above Q.3 A time series is unable to adjust the influ- ences like: (& customs and policy changes (b) seasonal changes (c) long-term influences, (d) none of the above [A time series consists of: (a) two components (b), three components (ef four components (d) five components ‘The forecasts on the basis of a time series are: (a), cent per cent true (BY true to a great extent (6) never trucTiwe Series ANALYSS td) none of the above The component of a time series attache 0 fong-tem variations i tems as (a) eyche variation 5) secular trend (e) anegular variation (yall the above Q.7 The component of a te series which is, hed to short-term Nuetustions is: (2) seasonal variation () eche vanation| (o) regular variation (dh all the shove a6 A Tooksout ina factory fora month it ao- ‘ated with the component of time sexes (Of segue movement Cb secular wend (6) «yelie watation (Gd) rons of the above Q.9 The general decline insalesof esto ethes is attached 10 the component of the secular tend (6) eycialsavition {c) sexona variation (4) all he above Q.10 Theale adepanmena store on Dasera and Diwali ae asia with the compe rent of time series (a) secular trend (8 Sol eon (6) iregolar variation {0} all the shove Te eansistem increase in production of ee- reals constitutes the component of atime (6Y secular wend (h) seanonal variation (e) eyelcal va (a) all the above ula tend isindicative of long-term vati- ation towards: (ap increase only (6) decrease only (F either increase or decrease (4) none of the above Lincar rend of 2 time series indicates 10 wards: (2 constant rate of change () constant rate of growth {e) change in geometric progression (all the above Q.14 Method of feast squares to fit inthe trend is applicable only if the end is: (@) linear (6) parabolic 42 bth (a) and (6) (@) neither (a) mar (b) Q. 15 Seavonal variation means the varistions 0¢- ccorting within (a), a number of years (8 pants of a year (©) pats of x month (6) none ofthe abowe Q.16 Salient faetors responsible fr seasonal vari (2) weather (} social customs (9) Festivals (0) all he abe Q.17 Cyclic variations ina time series are eased by (a) lockout ina factory (b) war in a eounry (Noose the states AD) nove of he above 0.18 regular caused by: (@) leckouts and strikes (0) epidemics () Moods Gi all the above Q.19 Tro in atime seri means: 5 long-tenn eepular movement (b) shortterm regular movement (6) both (2) and (b) (2) citer (2) nor (bo) ‘The terms prosperity, recession, depression(2) mulipteaive mal ealy 6) Sih mus only {GF inaipicatee ell a 2 mde (d) none of the above: = 49 nao 0 wend etd or seas in ces thine beso omen om ponent ofthe tie sees Be (GP sutra te tend vale fr eachcor responding valve (06 taking tera a ach seasonal value tothe conesponding end vale ting the rt of each dae to the eomeaponding seasonal vale Uw) one oft above 50, In ato to tend mod the medion ofthe tend fe inet foreach pesod rep CH the seasonal indices te (4) none of the abave Q.51 Ratio to trond method for seasonal indices provides good results if (2) the periods are of long duration hy i are given six monthly (6 the periods are of short duration (a) all the shove situations Q.52 The best method for finding out seasonat variation is (a), simple average method (85 ato 10 moving average method {e) ratio to trend method (8) one of the above Q. 53 In atin to moving average method for sea sonal indices, the ratio of an observed value tothe moving average cemove the influence of: {a) trend (Wy, cyclic variation (F wend and eyclic variation both (a) none of these Q.54 The moving averages in a time scries are free from the influences of: (a), seasonal and cyclic variations (1), seasonal and irregular variations Procnawuco SraTsTES (©) trend and eytcal vations (G) trond and andor variations 55 Link relatives in atime series remove the inecoe of GF the wend (by egcivaition (©) ep viations (8) all he shove 56 Cyclic vations ae inerwoven with @) tend (by, seasonal vi @ ineguar @) athe stove 0.57 Residual method for time serie comet of (@) removing the wren from the series {b) removing the seasonal saviation from wth seros & remoning the invenes of ren sa Seal an inept variations (3) pone of te above sasuring eyeles in a 0.58 Firifrece meh fr islaig plat Kegan etme ea (yea ota te) very dan {© monly daa (@) any ux (0.59 Graphically ects one series arden Stabe tosh te) ough and ests (0) concave and convex pions (ep cops and ers, B attedwe 660 In percentage ratio method of messxng {Sch aration one Hin (2) octal changes £8) reatne changes (2) perce rao changes (a) the shove Qu61 Refernce eye analysis method of mess tring eyeicvartions was developed by (a) Delhi school of economies {6y National Buea of econnmic Reser, USAa“ 10 et erica cry (ede tn Viggen tine (3 mmc oF sb ©.77 Tobie componen a be ine re he ‘cm ouston acl? (3) nd 1h seston to oye (9) ann @.78 tee spe of he wend oe pone sims (3) ing end (67 aoc oad (©) sogatn {Gayot te shove 0.79 The etion ofthe panto tn Yed6o 24N— 130! 1 he oni 6 sie Baka! by dese Yea the ejton of te pbs ted aie OF e277 -sax-1ae thy Postd =8ax— ae to Peaas toy ia (3) ne ofthe ove (2.80 IF he equation of exponent wend wih Tonos 5 (1.89% th eatin ofthe expen Iypt ogi wl be (a) Y= 15 (13)" hy Y= 48.6 (1.8)" th Ve 4.62 (1.89 (Y= 1S(L8) Q.H1 Cut of a number of models fted to a time series data, the best model can be adjudged by: {a), the estimates of the parameters (6Y the value of residual surn of squares (©) the shape of the curves (al) all the curves Q. 82 ‘The seasonal indices foreacl month or quar ter of different years are called: (a) chain relatives Prosramues Sranstice (h) Tink retatives (6), typical seasonals (specific easonals Q.83 Time series analysis helps to: (@) understand the behaviour ofa variable in the past (®) predict the future behaviour of vari ale {) plan future operations (6 all the above Q.84 The averages of the specific seasons for ‘of yests of (), mean seasonal (Ff typical seasonals (4) all the above Q.85 Inspite of merits of least square wend, the Tizitation is th (2) predictions based on rend ignore other ‘components of tine series (b) this method is not applicable for a furnber of growth eueves which follose business tends (both (9) and (b) 0) neither (3) noe (b) hoa for ANSWERS SECTION-B (1) Chronatogical (2) Patterson (3) Werner Z. Hirsch (4) real behaviour (5) predict (6) time serie (7) not absolutely (8) influences (9) four (10) secular trend (11) editing (12) calendar (13) prices (14) popuae tian (15) seascnal (16) seasonal (17) eycles (18) SOAITINo, of days ia the manth (19) 30.5/No, ff days in the month (20) prosperity; recession (21) four (22) cycles (23) iregular (24) three Q5)¥ 2 Tx Sx Cx 126) eT 45+ C 4127) multiplicative (28) hardly (29) additive (30) free: hhand (31) semi-average (32) seasonal; eyelic (23) short-term fluctuations (34) straight line (35) infoe- mation is lost (6) projections (97) eyeles (38) mathematical (39) regression (40) most exact (41) imterpotated (42) linear; curvilinear (43) n!™ degree_ Tuk SERIES ANALYSIS al (44) geon polyno fe mend (85) ¥ = ab¥ 40) r= ab" (A7)arendseyeles (48) 100 No.of seasons (49) zero (50) eyelic; irregular (51) periodic ave ane: grand average (52) mean: median (53) inferior (54) short duration (55) best (56) seasonal: irregular (57) trend; eychie (SR) seasonal x imegular (59) median: mean (60) flexibility (61) Karl Pearson (62) ceding (63) chain relatives (4) ietegulse (65) -asonals (66) seasonality (67) preceding (68) jative changes (69) same month (70) Nation Bureau of Economics Research, U.S.A (71) current ime series (72) forecasting (73) Fourier series (74) § aad C (75) linear Function (76) yearly data (77) casonal component (78) yearly (79) seevlar tend 0) business eyeles (81) 5. C and 1 (82) parabola 83) slope (84) origin (85) line of best fit (86) sea onal indices (87) wregular (88) tend (#9) eyes v0) F= 94 OI4N (HL) 122.40 (92) Y= 14 (1.5) YR) FENGS + 72K; Pdds.t + 7.2K 4) F = 7124 S4S.0N (IS) Rs, 611.37; 7336.45 0) F 1B 4 MN 4 ANE (OT) FS BRAN: F = 1D 4 AX ok) fF = 94 + OOISN (99) F = A.S 0.5K (100) -asonal variations (101) specific seasonals (102) slicies: Hevel of business activity (103) residual nin of squares (108) seasonat: cyclical (105) (0 al seasonal SECTION-C ind Bd Ba Be (bb Md Ma Oa Ob MDa (Ve Iya dye (Sb (od Ud Usd ya Ee Ad QHd GYd AAHE 25d Cob QA’ He Qa GME Ab AYb AYd Gd)a GSd GOL Gna aye oy (39a (yb Oe me ma (sve Suggested Reading 4 1. Hadley, G 8h Ge Gia ase Oa he (Se ETE (62d) b (68) d_ (6 Tye Ta (aoe Db ao) 0 36) 0 652) b (58) (aye aya (7) (32) d ann ne He God (65) and ame apd aa anh 1a) e hb (env (ora ab ah ror Agarwal, B.L.. Dasie Statistics, New Age In- ternal 3d edn, 196, 1 (P) Lad, Publishers, New Delhi Anderson, TA¥., The Statistical Analysis of Time Series, Jobn Wiley. News York, 1958 Berenson, ML, Statistics, Prentice H 1979. and Le D.M., Business Englewood Chill, 1. Bythit, D.R., Elementary Business Stavstes, D. Von Nostrand Co,, New York, 1979. Enns, PG. Business Statistics, Richasd D Irwin, filinois. 1988. Faller. An Entrnduetion to Statistical Tim Series, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1976 ties, Holden-Day, 1968. Intevduction te Business Stati EJ. Multiple Time Series, Joh jew York. 1970. Richard, LA. Lacava, J, Business Statistic (Why ard When), MeGraw-Hill Book Ce 1978. Sancheti, B.C. and Kapoor, {& Sons, New Dethi, 7th ed vttan C 1991 Statistic