3.

Decline Curves
A decline curve of a well is simply a plot of the well’s production rate on the y-
axis versus time on the x-axis. The plot is usually done on a semilog paper; i.e. the y-
axis is logarithmic and the x-axis is linear. When the data plots as a straight line, it is
modeled with a constant percentage decline “exponential decline”. When the data
plots concave upward, it is modeled with a “hyperbolic decline”. A special case of the
hyperbolic decline is known as “harmonic decline”.
The most common decline curve relationship is the constant percentage decline
(exponential). With more and more low productivity wells coming on stream, there is
currently a swing toward decline rates proportional to production rates (hyperbolic
and harmonic). Although some wells exhibit these trends, hyperbolic or harmonic
decline extrapolations should only be used for these specific cases. Over-exuberance
in the use of hyperbolic or harmonic relationships can result in excessive reserves
estimates. Figure 5 is an example of a production graph with exponential and
harmonic extrapolations.

Figure 5: Decline curve of an oil well

Decline curves are the most common means of forecasting production. They have
many advantages:
 Data is easy to obtain,
 They are easy to plot,
 They yield results on a time basis, and
 They are easy to analyze.

If the conditions affecting the rate of production of the well are not changed by
outside influences, the curve will be fairly regular, and, if projected, will furnish
useful knowledge as to the future production of the well.

3.1 Exponential Decline

As mentioned above, in the exponential decline, the well’s production data plots
as a straight line on a semilog paper. The equation of the straight line on the semilog
paper is given by:
q  qi e  Dt
12
Where:

q = well’s production rate at time t, STB/day

qi = well’s production rate at time 0, STB/day
D = nominal exponential decline rate, 1/day
t = time, day

The following table summarizes the equations used in exponential decline.

Exponential Decline b = 0
Description Equation
Rate q  qi e  Dt
q q
Cumulative Oil Production Np  i
D
Nominal Decline Rate D   ln 1  De 

qi  q
De 
Effective Decline Rate qi
De  1  e  D

Life ln qi / q 
t
D

Example #3: A well has declined from 100 BOPD to 96 BOPD during a one month
period. Assuming exponential decline, predict the rate after 11 more months and after
22.5 months. Also predict the amount of oil produced after one year.

Solution:

qi  100 BOPD
q  96 BOPD
t  1 month

1. Calculate the effective decline rate per month:

qi  q 100  96
De    0.04 / month
qi 100

2. Calculate the nominal decline rate per month:

D   ln 1  De    ln 1  0.04   ln 0.96  0.040822/month

3. Calculate the rate after 11 more months:

q  qi e  Dt  100e 0.040822x12  61.27BOPD

4. Calculate the rate after 22.5 months:

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 q  qi e  Dt  100e 0.040822x 22.5  39.91 POPD

5. Calculate the nominal decline rate per year:

D  0.040822/month x 12  0.48986/year

6. Calculate the cumulative oil produced after one year:

qi  q 100  61.27 STB / D

Np   * 365D / Y  28,858 STB
D 0.489864 / Y

This completes the solution.

3.2 Hyperbolic Decline

Alternatively, if the well’s production data plotted on a semilog paper concaves
upward, then it is modeled with a hyperbolic decline. The equation of the hyperbolic
decline is given by:
q  qi 1  bDi t 
1

b

Where:

q = well’s production rate at time t, STB/day

qi = well’s production rate at time 0, STB/day
Di = initial nominal exponential decline rate (t = 0), 1/day
b = hyperbolic exponent
t = time, day

The following table summarizes the equations used in hyperbolic decline:

Hyperbolic Decline b > 0, b ≠ 1

Description Equation
q  qi 1  bDi t 
Rate 1

b

Cumulative Oil Production

Np 
qib
Di 1  b
qi1b  q1b 

Initial nominal Decline Rate Di 

1
b

1  Dei b  1 
q q
Dei  i
Effective Decline Rate qi
De  1  e  D

Life t
qi / q b  1
bDi

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Example #4: Given the following data:

qi  100 BOPD
Di  0.5 / year
b  0.9

Assuming hyperbolic decline, predict the amount of oil produced for five years.

Solution:

1. Calculate the well flow rate at the end of each year for five years using:

q  qi 1  bDi t   1001  0.9 x0.5xt   1001  0.45t 

1 1 1
  
b 0.9 0.9 BOPD

2. Calculate the cumulative oil produced at the end of each year for five years
using:

Np 
qib
Di 1  b 
qi1b  q1 b 


1000.9 10010.9   q 10.9   365 days
0.51  0.9  year
 460598.9 * 1.584893  q 0.1 

3. Form the following table:

Year Rate at End of Year Cum. Production Yearly Production

0 100 0 -
1 66.176 29,524 29,524
2 49.009 50,248 20,724
3 38.699 66,115 15,867
4 31.854 78,914 12,799
5 26.992 89,606 10,692

This completes the solution.

3.3 Harmonic Decline

A special case of the hyperbolic decline is known as “harmonic decline”, where b is
taken to be equal to 1. The following table summarizes the equations used in
harmonic decline:

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 Harmonic Decline b = 1
Description Equation
qi
q
Rate 1  bDi t
q q
N p  i ln i
Di q
Cumulative Oil Production Dei
Di 
1  Dei
Nominal Decline Rate q q
Dei  i
Effective Decline Rate qi

t i
q / q   1
Di
Life

16