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Stocks & Commodities V. 23:7 (16-24): The Tape-Reading Edge by Thomas Carr, Ph.D.
VIRTUALLY SPEAKING
Read The Tape, Improve Your Trading
The Tape-Reading Edge
Tape-reading skills are a product of your intuition.
Here’s how you can sharpen your intuitive power
into a tremendous profit-making talent.
F
irst, it must be said that tape-reading is
a kind of luxury, at least these days. It
is not necessary to tape-read to be a
successful trader; tape-reading simply
gives you an extra edge — an edge that takes your
trading to the next stage of excellence. Sound tape-
reading skills are essential for getting the best pos-
sible entry, holding onto winning trades beyond your
profit target, and are sometimes responsible for keep-
ing you out of bad trades altogether.
WHAT IS TAPE-READING?
Tape-reading gets its name from the old “ticker tape”
machine that used to feed stock quotes to brokers
before the advent of computers and LED displays. A
small, glass-enclosed printing press would spit out a
continuous paper ribbon, on which would be typed
order size and price quotes as trades were executed.
Fortunately, we no longer have to crowd around
the ticker waiting anxiously for the tape to give us a
quote on the stock we are interested in. We simply
type the symbol into our computerized, electronic
charting system and we are given a trade-by-trade,
streaming “tape” of the action in real time.
If you read through the great stories in Jack
Schwager’s Market Wizards volumes, you will find
a theme running throughout the 60-odd biographies
collected there: tape-reading. Besides having nerves
of steel, most of the world’s greatest traders are also
by Thomas Carr, Ph.D.
Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc.
great tape-readers. Many began their careers trading
“nothing but the tape.”
Floor traders live and die by the tape. They don’t
have the luxury of sitting quietly in front of a com-
puter analyzing charts. They can only trade the ebb
and flow of orders as they occur in the pits. It is a
“chicken or the egg” phenomenon, because floor
traders, with their frequent in-and-out scalping tech-
niques, create the very tape they are trading. Other
than rumors and news flashes that filter past their
trading stations, they have nothing else to go on but
the tape.
Some of the tape-reading skill is simply a product
of intuition. If you are a strongly intuitive type, you
already have a head start on developing this skill.
Those able to hear a piece of music and anticipate
what the next movement will be, or those who in
listening to someone speak can finish his or her
sentences, are those who are strongly intuitive and
will likely make great tape-readers.
But there is also a science to tape-reading that can
be taught, and fortunately, it is not rocket science!
Moreover, there is a discipline I will teach you that
can sharpen what little intuitive power you possess
into a profit-making talent.
READING TIME AND SALES
First, let’s talk about the science involved. There are
two primary sources of the tape as we now know it:
time and sales (T&S) and Level I quotes (the bid x ask
sizing that you see in your trading or charting work-
station). Level II, Island Book, and other tools show-
ing market depth are not, strictly speaking, essential
to tape-reading, since they are not primarily con-
cerned with order flow at the current market price.
Let’s start with the first T&S. At any point during
the trading day, your T&S indicator should look
something like what you see in Figure 1. The order
 Stocks & Commodities V. 23:7 (16-24): The Tape-Reading Edge by Thomas Carr, Ph.D.

LEELA CORMAN

Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc.

Stocks & Commodities V. 23:7 (16-24): The Tape-Reading Edge by Thomas Carr, Ph.D.
TIME BATE SIZE PRICE EXCH
15:13:38 Ask 100 28.4300 cinc
15:13:38 Bid 1,200 28.3800 cinc
15:13:38 Ask 100 28.4200 cinc
flow is of QLGC trading near the close on June 10, 2004. The 15:13:37 Trade 400 28.4200 cinc
color-coding I use is as follows: 15:13:37 Trade 3,700 28.4200 cinc
15:13:37 Trade 1,000 28.4200 cinc
■ Light green = Buys at the ask 15:13:37 Best ask 3000 28.4200 nasd
■ Red = Sells at the bid 15:13:37 Ask 200 28.4200 cinc
■ Yellow = New bids (“best bid” = inside bid) 15:13:37 Ask 5300 28.4200 cinc
15:13:37 Bid 100 28.3800 cinc
■ White = New asks (“best ask” = inside ask)
15:13:36 Trade 500 28.3800 pacx
■ Blue = New high of the day (not seen here) 15:13:36 Best bid 1100 28.3800 nasd
■ Orange = New low of the day (not seen here) 15:13:36 Bid 800 28.3800 pacx
15:13:36 Ask 5100 28.4200 cinc
The T&S marks order flow in a given stock. When tape- 15:13:36 Bid 100 28.3800 cinc
reading from T&S, you are looking at three distinct kinds 15:13:35 Ask 1500 28.4100 pacx
of changes in order flow: 15:13:35 Best Ask 3000 28.4200 nasd
15:13:35 Ask 100 28.4700 amex
■ Color changes 15:13:35 Ask 100 28.4600 amex
■ Size changes 15:13:34 Trade 300 28.4200 cinc
15:13:34 Trade 300 28.4200 cinc
■ Speed changes
15:13:34 Trade 100 28.4200 cinc
Color changes 15:13:34 Trade 300 28.4200 bost
During a bullish turn in the market, you will see lots of yellow 15:13:34 Ask 4900 28.4200 cinc
and green. During a bearish turn, you will see lots of white and FIGURE 1: TIME & SALES OF QLOGIC. Color changes, size changes, and
red. A steady flow of new bids and buys at the ask indicates that speed changes can all indicate the order flow of a stock. This example
displays a neutral market.
buyers are in charge of the market. A steady flow of new asks
and sells at the bid indicate that sellers are in charge of the
market. If the market is neutral (no one color dominates) and
then you suddenly see a flow of yellow and green, you know TIME BATE SIZE PRICE EXCH
that buyers are stepping up and price is likely to rise in the short
15:56:44 Best ask 48500 23.8100 nasd
term. If the market is neutral and then you see a flow of white
15:56:44 Best ask 100 23.8200 nasd
and red, you know that sellers are stepping up and price is
15:56:43 Trade 300 23.8100 cinc
likely to fall in the short term. So to summarize:
15:56:43 Trade 2200 23.8100 cinc
■ Steady flow of yellow and green = Price currently 15:56:42 Trade 1000 23.8100 cinc
going up 15:56:42 Trade 1500 23.8100 cinc
15:56:42 Trade 2000 23.8100 cinc
■ Steady flow of white and red = Price currently going
15:56:42 Trade 700 23.8100 pacx
down
15:56:42 Trade 1000 23.8100 cinc
■ Change from neutral to yellow and green = Price about 15:56:42 Ask 300 23.8100 cinc
to go up 15:56:42 Bid 46900 23.8100 pacx
■ Change from neutral to white and red = Price about to 15:56:42 Best Bid 67200 23.8000 nasd
go down 15:56:42 Bid 41900 23.8100 pacx
15:56:42 Ask 4700 23.8100 pacx
In the QLGC T&S in Figure 1, the market is currently neutral. 15:56:42 Bid 100 23.8100 pacx
Bulls and bears are in a tug-of-war and are battling it out for 15:56:42 Ask 5400 23.8100 pacx
domination. While there is more buying (green) than selling 15:56:42 Ask 1600 23.8100 cinc
(red), the size on the ask is larger than seen on the bid. 15:56:42 Ask 5400 23.8100 pacx
15:56:42 Best bid 67200 23.8000 cinc
Size changes 15:56:41 Ask 6900 23.8100 pacx
Here, you are looking at the size of the orders coming in at the 15:56:40 Ask 12400 23.8100 cinc
bid and ask, and the size of the orders being executed. Color 15:56:40 Bid 100 23.8000 cinc
changes are only as good as the size behind them. Seeing lots 15:56:40 Trade 200 23.8100 pacx
of yellow and green is great if you are long, but it is even better 15:56:39 Ask 5600 23.8100 pacx
if the numbers going with them are high. In the CSCO example 15:56:38 Best bid 65700 23.8000 nasd
in Figure 2, you see a market in bullish mode. There is lots of 15:56:38 Best bid 64500 23.8000 nasd
green buying with large orders going through, and big bets FIGURE 2: A BULLISH MODE. You see a lot of buying, as seen by the
being made at the bid. By contrast, the bets made at the offer number of green rows. Large orders and big bets are being made at the bid.

Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc.

Stocks & Commodities V. 23:7 (16-24): The Tape-Reading Edge by Thomas Carr, Ph.D.
TIME BATE SIZE PRICE EXCH
15:58:56 Ask 50400 23.8200 cinc
15:58:56 Best bid 10800 23.8100 nasd
15:58:56 Bid 10000 23.8100 cinc
or ask are much smaller. Indeed, the five-minute chart on that
15:58:55 Best ask 35500 23.8200 nasd
day (June 10, 2004) at 15:56 ET shows CSCO right at the
15:58:55 Bid 6900 23.8100 pacx
beginning of a nice 25-cent ramp up.
15:58:55 Best Ask 32500 23.8200 nasd
Figure 3 shows what CSCO looked like at the top of that
15:58:55 Best bid 10800 23.8100 nasd
ramp. You see a market turning bearish, and it is not only the
15:58:55 Trade 850 23.8100 bost
color changes that tip you off. It is also the changes in size as
15:58:55 Trade 900 23.8100 bost
larger orders start coming in on the ask.
15:58:55 Trade 1500 23.8100 bost
15:58:55 Trade 895 23.8100 bost
Speed changes
15:58:55 Ask 16700 23.8100 pacx
The last element of information that T&S conveys to the trader
15:58:55 Bid 7200 23.8100 pacx
is the speed at which the tape scrolls past your screen. In quiet
15:58:55 Bid 7500 23.8100 pacx
periods, the tape will move slowly with only a few new ticks
15:58:55 Best bid 7000 23.8100 nasd
every minute or so. But at reversal periods, when new traders
15:58:55 Best ask 27300 23.8200 nasd
are jumping on board (or making a quick exit), the speed of the
15:58:55 Trade 355 23.8100 bost
scrolling can increase dramatically. Of course, the degree of
15:58:55 Best bid 7700 23.8100 nasd
speed is relative to the liquidity of the stock. In a heavily traded
15:58:55 Best ask 27300 23.8200 nasd
market like CSCO, the scrolling speed can change from fast to
15:58:55 Bid 6000 23.8100 pacx
very fast. But in lighter markets — like IBM, CEPH, CYMI, and
15:58:55 Trade 300 23.8100 cinc
others — the T&S can sit quietly for minutes at a time, barely
15:58:55 Trade 100 23.8100 cinc
moving, until a new wave of buying or selling takes over. It is
15:58:55 Trade 200 23.8100 cinc
this change in movement that is the key to confirming the new
15:58:55 Trade 2000 23.8100 cinc
or continuing trend.
15:58:55 Trade 200 23.8100 cinc
15:58:55 Trade 750 23.8100 nasd
T&S TAPE-READING RULES SUMMARY
FIGURE 3: A MARKET TURNING BEARISH. A change in color as well as
1 Predominance of yellow and green = Green light changes in size as larger orders come in on the ask are indications that the
2 Predominance of white and red = Red light market is turning bearish.
3 Size on yellow and green = Green light ORCL INCREASING SELL PRESSURE
4 Size on white and red = Red light
■ The size on the bid (45) indicates the number of
5 Speeding up of scrolling = Green light shares (x 100) that are currently being bid for the
stock
6 Slowing down of scrolling = Red light
■ The inside bid (11.17) is the price at which you can
■ To enter a new long (or cover a short) = One, three, currently sell the stock
five lights green ■ The inside ask (11.18) is the price at which you can
■ To enter a new short (or sell a long)= Two, four currently buy the stock
lights red, five lights green ■ The size on the ask (116) indicates the number of
shares (x 100) that are currently on offer for the stock
Of course, you won’t always get your ideal timing scenario. ■ The last price traded indicates the price at which
Other factors may force us to enter the trade, regardless of the shares of the stock last changed hands (11.17)
tape. But with these tape-reading “rules” in your trading
■ The last size traded indicates the number of shares
arsenal, you have an objective strategy that will help you more
that were traded at that price.
precisely time your entries and exits.
From these numbers alone, I can tell a lot about the mood the
READING LEVEL I QUOTES stock is currently in. I know, for example, that would-be sellers
Another tool you can use to “read the tape” is the simple bid x ask
outnumber would-be buyers by almost three to one. And I
and last size indicators that you’ll find in your charting or trading
know that the last trade executed was a sale of 2,000 shares at
workstation. Here is what you will likely see for a given stock in
the bid, which confirms my bearish suspicions.
your workstation. I’ll use Oracle (ORCL) as an example:

ORCL 45 11.17 11.18 116 11.17 20

Floor traders live and die by the
The numbers listed after the stock symbol are, in order: size tape. They don’t have the luxury of
on the bid, current inside bid, current inside ask, size on the ask, sitting quietly in front of a computer
last price traded, last size traded. Here is what these numbers
mean:
analyzing charts.
Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc.
Stocks & Commodities V. 23:7 (16-24): The Tape-Reading Edge by Thomas Carr, Ph.D.

Watching these numbers change over time can give even ORACLE INCREASING SELL PRESSURE
more information. The rules are simple:
ORCL 45 11.17 11.18 116 11.17 20
ORCL 25 11.17 11.18 132 11.18 8
■ As ask size increases and more trades of large size
ORCL 12 11.17 11.18 154 11.17 32
go off at the bid, there is selling pressure and the
ORCL 10 11.17 11.18 155 11.18 1
stock is likely to go down over the next few minutes
ORCL 7 11.17 11.18 185 11.17 5
■ As bid size increases and more trades of large size ORCL 1 11.17 11.18 238 11.17 23
go off at the ask, there is buying pressure and the
FIGURE 4: INCREASING SELLING PRESSURE. It’s pretty clear that the 11.17
stock is likely to go up over the next few minutes. bid will drop down to 11.16. To reach equilibrium, the offer will also drop lower.

So if you want to short but see buying pressure, you wait it

out. And if you want to go long but see selling pressure, you ORACLE INCREASING BUY PRESSURE
wait it out. When the tide turns (and it always does), you jump ORCL 45 11.17 11.18 116 11.17 20
on board and enjoy the near-term ride. ORCL 85 11.17 11.18 97 11.18 32
Figure 4 shows an example of increasing selling pressure ORCL 105 11.17 11.18 75 11.18 5
in ORCL. ORCL 185 11.17 11.18 55 11.18 25
In this example, you can be reasonably sure that the 11.17 ORCL 208 11.17 11.18 23 11.17 3
bid is about to drop to the next lower level (likely 11.16) and ORCL 227 11.17 11.18 2 11.18 35
that the offer will also drop down in a chase to reach equilib- FIGURE 5: INCREASING BUYING PRESSURE. Here it is likely that the offer at
rium. Figure 5 shows an example of the opposite: increasing 11.18 will move up to the next level. Turns of the tape do not last long, so if you
buying pressure. want to open a long position in ORCL, you want to get in at 11.18 before that
opportunity disappears.
It is safe to assume here that the offer at 11.18 will not last
long. One more buy and the tape should move up to the next
■ Watch both T&S and the bid x ask change over a
level (11.18 x 11.19). If you are looking to establish a long
period of about an hour
position in ORCL, you will want to jump on 11.18 before it
disappears. If you are looking to short ORCL, then you want to ■ Do not glance at any chart; watch only the tape
stand aside until you see selling pressure begin to develop. ■ With a notepad nearby, mark the price at which you
Turns of the tape do not last long. The kind of information think a change in direction is coming
that tape-watching provides is normally for the very short term. ■ Then mark again the price when you think that
What can convey a larger picture is a “tape-reading pattern,” direction has stalled or is about to reverse
where you see either buying or selling pressure develop repeat-
■ Do this twice a day between 9:30 and 10:30 am ET,
edly over a given period of time. This would indicate a trend
and 14:30 to 15:30 ET
that can be traded.
There are other patterns that tape-reading can signal. For ■ Use the same stock at all times
example, repeated failures to take down a large number of ■ Keep track of your profits and losses in each hour
shares at a given offer can convey a resistance area. Likewise, session
repeated failures to erase a large number of shares at a given bid ■ Do this every day for 10 trading days.
can convey a support level. And consequently, you can predict
a breakout or breakdown as that offer or bid is chipped away By the end of this exercise, two weeks later, you should be
at repeatedly until it finally gives way. Jumping on board just a proficient tape-reader. You will develop a feel for points of
as the last shares are taken out is one of the most thrilling parts support and resistance in your stock. You will catch the
of trading the tape! breakouts and breakdowns. You will scalp† the whips and ride
the waves. You should also find out whether you tend to be a
STRENGTHEN YOUR TAPE-READING INTUITION better morning trader or afternoon trader. And believe me, your
Now that you know the “science” part of tape-reading, try overall trading will improve dramatically ... just by reading the
putting it together with an emphasis on developing your tape- tape alone!
reading “intuition.” To do that, here’s an exercise you can do
as you are watching the tape during the trading day. Known as “Dr. Stoxx,” Thomas Carr holds a doctorate in philoso-
phy from Oxford University. He is CEO of Befriendthetrend.com,
TAPE-READING EXERCISE and general partner of Carr Capital Management, which manages
■ Pick a liquid, volatile stock (one on NASDAQ’s the Befriend the Trend Fund.
most active list) †See Traders’ Glossary for definition S&C
■ Put the stock in your trading and charting worksta-
tions

Copyright (c) Technical Analysis Inc.

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