Preliminary Syllabus: Details of readings, assignments, etc.

subject to minor revisions

PPHA 43420: How China is Changing the World

Spring 2020
Harris School of Public Policy

Neil Thomas
Paulson Institute, University of Chicago

Time Tuesday, 3:30pm–6:20pm

Location Keller Center 0021

Office Hours Tuesday (by appointment)

Contact neilthomas@uchicago.edu

Prerequisites None. This is an elective course designed to be valuable both to those

with no background in the study of China and to those who wish to
broaden or deepen an existing knowledge of China.

Objectives
• Grasp historical and geopolitical influences on modern China.
• Understand key actors and dynamics in Chinese foreign policymaking.
• Assess the impact of China’s rise on a wide range of global issues.
• Evaluate competing views on the consequences of China’s rise.
• Develop skills to apply classroom learning to policy contexts.

Course Description

China’s rise exerts an ever-greater influence on international affairs. The country’s

government, people, military, markets, firms, and ideas are reshaping the world. But there
is little agreement across the globe about the nature of this newfound influence. Is China an
opportunity? Is China a threat? What does China want? What does Chinese power mean?
Regardless of how you would answer such questions, all types of policy professionals need
to be familiar with China and know how to think about its international profile.

This course is a multidisciplinary study of China’s relationships with the world that
synthesizes knowledge from international relations, political science, and economics to
provide students with a holistic understanding of China’s rise and what it means for the
world. The aim is to span the divide between scholarship and policymaking by using data,
theory, primary sources, and secondary texts from various sides of key China debates.

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Preliminary Syllabus: Details of readings, assignments, etc. subject to minor revisions

The course has three parts. First, we will learn about the historical experiences, geopolitical
contexts, and institutional structures that shape China’s external affairs. Next, we will study
China’s relationship with global economics, security, and institutions. Finally, we will
analyze important contemporary policy issues related to China’s rise.

Some examples of the questions that we will grapple with in this course are: Why is China
rising? Is Chinese foreign policy improving under Xi Jinping? Can the global economy
operate without China? Will China use force to achieve its security goals? Is China a
champion or spoiler in global governance? Will China rule the Internet? Does the “Belt and
Road Initiative” really matter? Does Chinese aid help or hurt partners in Africa, Asia, and
Latin America? Is there a “China Model” that Beijing seeks to export? Did the US policy of
“engagement” toward China fail? Could either country win a new Cold War?

There is often no simple “correct” answer to such questions, so policy professionals need to
develop an intellectual architecture that allows them to assess competing perspectives and
evaluate the evidence and logic used to support different arguments. Therefore, this course
does not begin with a particular view about China but rather aims to equip students with
the skills and the sources necessary to make their own informed decisions. I will regularly
seek student feedback to make classes as engaging and relevant as possible.

Assessments

The assignments for this course are designed to strengthen the practical skills necessary
for students to turn their ideas into impact after graduation, whether that be in a corporate
boardroom, diplomatic negotiation, government briefing, or political campaign. To this end,
I will devote time in some classes to a series of mini-tutorials on decoding official Chinese
statements, writing op-eds, conducting briefings, and crafting policy memos. I reserve the
right to modify these assessments and due dates based on final course enrollment.

Class Participation (40%): Being able to express yourself and manage your time are
essential to success in the policy world. So, I expect you to do the readings and to read with
a critical eye on the different (and often contradictory) arguments, assumptions, and values
that they embody. I also expect you to attend class and to participate by asking questions,
engaging with discussions, and sharing your experiences. Each seminar will combine
lecturing with interactive debate on the merits of the assigned readings plus conversations
about contemporary news and commentary about China. You will be assessed on the
frequency and quality of your participation in class, although I will also provide options for
some written contributions before class. This grade also includes some brief individual
presentations, which will focus on connecting readings to current events.

Op-Ed (10%): An op-ed is a short piece of writing that expresses an opinion. Op-eds are an
important way for policy professionals to raise awareness of issues they care about and to
advocate for particular solutions. Your assignment is to write an engaging op-ed that makes
a well-researched argument in favor of a particular policy that you think a foreign
government should pursue to advance its interests in relation to China. Alternately, you

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could do the same for a policy that you think China’s government should adopt to advance
its foreign policy interests. Your op-eds should be between 700-800 words. I will run an in-
class tutorial on how to write op-eds before they are due.

Group Briefing (20%): Briefing decision-makers—politicians, clients, donors, bosses—is

a key skill for policy professionals. Meetings and slide decks are often crucial tools for
setting agendas and advancing policies in large organizations of any type. You will work in
small teams to respond to a hypothetical scenario that relates to China’s growing role in the
global technology. Each team will be assigned a relevant country or organization and must
prepare a 15-20-minute briefing for its leader that includes issue framing, decision criteria,
policy options, and recommendations for action. I will play the role of leader and, just like a
real decision-maker, I will ask various questions during the presentation. I will talk further
in class about how to do briefings and how to design presentations. These briefings will
take place during normal class hours in Week 6. Teams will be assigned randomly. Further
details will be forthcoming in class.

Final Paper (30%): Communication is almost as important as content for turning good
policy ideas into political realities. Your final paper will have two parts: First, a 2500-word
research essay; Second, a 500-word policy memo. You may choose to write about any
policy issue related to this class, but your research should use primary and secondary
sources that go well beyond class readings. The research essay should introduce a policy
problem, discuss the background of this problem, identify possible solutions to the
problem, and evaluate which solution(s) would work best. The policy memo must be based
on your research essay and should adapt (not just summarize) its content into a memo
written for a specific decision-maker that identifies a problem they face, evaluates possible
responses, and recommends a course of action that appeals to their interests. I will provide
more guidance on policy memos, opportunities to discuss topics, and submission details in
class. Because of the need to submit grades for graduating students by June 7, this
assignment will be due immediately before our final class on June 2.

Academic Policies

Late Work: The late penalty is one half-grade per day after an assignment is due.

Referencing: Please use footnote references rather than in-text references. I do not mind
what style of footnote referencing you use, as long as you are consistent.

Technology: Most of this course will be screen-down, so the use of electronic devices will
not be permitted. But please bring your laptops to class as we may do some learning online.
Students who need to use note-taking technology should contact the me for assistance.

Absences: You will not be penalized for missing class for medical emergencies, religious
holidays, and legitimate family reasons. Please contact me as soon as possible to discuss
any such requests. Late arrivals and early exits count as absences.

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Plagiarism: Don’t do it. Always provide attribution for others’ ideas and for work that you
have not done yourself, whether such material comes from books, databases, journal
articles, media websites, lecture presentations, or classroom discussions. In addition to any
university sanctions, I will impose a penalty of three letter-grades on students who have
committed academic dishonesty. Harris Public Policy has this to say about plagiarism:

“All University of Chicago students are expected to uphold the highest standards of
academic Integrity and honesty. Among other things, this means that students shall not
represent another’s work as their own, use un-allowed materials during exams, or
otherwise gain unfair academic advantage. All students suspected of academic dishonesty
will be reported to the Harris Dean of Students for investigation and adjudication. The
disciplinary process can result in sanctions up to and including suspension or expulsion
from the University.”

Here are the Harris policy and procedures on academic integrity:

https://harris.uchicago.edu/gateways/current-students/policies.

Here is the University of Chicago Policy on Academic Honesty & Plagiarism:

https://studentmanual.uchicago.edu/academic-policies/academic-honesty-plagiarism/.

Grading Policies

Your final grade will be a weighted average of your marks across these four assessment
items. I will roughly follow the Harris Public Policy standard grading distribution below,
but will award more A and A- grades if I think that work merits such recognition.

A A- B+ B B-/Below
1/8 1/4 1/4 1/4 1/8

Student Accommodations

The classroom should be a welcoming environment that provides all students with an
equal opportunity to learn. Any student who believes they may need assistance should
inform the Harris Dean of Students office by the end of the first week of class. The Dean of
Students office will coordinate any student accommodations with Harris instructors.

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Schedule and Readings

The readings listed below will serve as the foundations for that week’s in-class discussions.
Later weeks have a higher number of readings, but most of these texts are quite short. I
may also send short media articles about topical events. You should endeavor to read all
these texts with a critical eye to their authors, evidence, arguments, and assumptions. They
will often present conflicting perspectives in complex debates about the Chinese state, the
nature of China’s rise, and how other actors should respond to China. Think about which
analyses you agree with and why.

I would also like to suggest some popular books that may help familiarize you with China.
These works are not mandatory reading but they are interesting and may help you succeed.

• Jonathan Spence, The Search for Modern China, W.W. Norton & Company, Third
Edition, 2012.
• Richard McGregor, The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers,
HarperCollins, 2010.
• Evan Osnos, Age of Ambition: Chasing Fortune, Truth & Faith in the New China,
Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2014.
• Elizabeth Economy, The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State,
Oxford University Press, 2018.
• Sang Ye, China Candid: The People on the People’s Republic, University of California
Press, 2006.

PART I: CHINESE CONTEXTS

Week 1: Tuesday, March 31: What is China’s Rise?

This class introduces the course and outlines the high-level themes of geography, history, and
theory that frame China’s relationship with the world. What is China? Why was China not
always powerful? How does this history influence China in the present? What do different IR
theories say about China’s rise? How can the help us throughout the course?
• Graham Allison, “The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?,”
The Atlantic, September 24, 2015.
• Adam Tooze, “Is This the End of the American Century?,” London Review of Books,
Vol. 41(7), April 4, 2019.
• Andrew Nathan and Andrew Scobell, China’s Search for Security, Columbia
University Press, 2012, Ch. 1.
• Constitution of the People’s Republic of China. (Preamble.)
• Anne-Marie Slaughter, “International Relations, Principal Theories,” Max Planck
Encyclopedia of Public International Law, 2011.

Week 2: Tuesday, April 7: How Does China Work?

China’s party-state is an authoritarian dictatorship that has managed to govern the world’s
largest population for over 70 years. How does this system work? How are foreign policy

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decisions made? Moreover, China’s current leader, Xi Jinping, has proclaimed a “new era” —
what does this mean for China and has Xi changed Chinese foreign policy?
• Andrew Nathan and Andrew Scobell, China’s Search for Security, Columbia
University Press, 2012, Ch. 2.
• Susan Lawrence and Michael Martin, “Understanding China's Political System,”
Congressional Research Service, March 20, 2013.
• Linda Jakobson and Ryan Manuel, “How Are Foreign Policy Decisions Made in
China?,” Asia & The Pacific Policy Studies, Vol. 3(1), 2016, pp. 101-110.
• Tanner Greer, “Xi Jinping In Translation: China’s Guiding Ideology,” Palladium, May
31, 2019.
• Angela Poh and Mingjiang Li, “A China in Transition: The Rhetoric and Substance of
Chinese Foreign Policy under Xi Jinping,” Asian Security, Vol. 13(2), 2017, pp. 84-97

PART II: CHINA & THE WORLD

Week 3: Tuesday, April 14: China and the Global Economy

OP-ED HARD COPY DUE BEFORE CLASS
The foundation of China’s rising power is its incredible economic growth, which has depended
to a large extent on globalization and open markets. How is China transforming the structure
of international trade, investment, and growth? What challenges does China’s economic heft
pose for other countries and for international economic institutions?
• Justin Yifu Lin, “China and the Global Economy,” Remarks at the Federal Reserve
Bank of San Francisco, November 29, 2011.
• Margaret M. Pearson, “China’s Foreign Economic Relations and Policies,” in Saadia
M. Pekkanen, John Ravenhill and Rosemary Foot (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of the
International Relations of Asia, Oxford University Press, 2014.
• Christopher A. McNally, “Sino-Capitalism: China’s Reemergence and the
International Political Economy,” World Politics, Vol. 64(4), 2012, pp. 741-776.
• Christina Lai, “Acting One Way and Talking Another: China’s Coercive Economic
Diplomacy in East Asia and Beyond,” Pacific Review, Vol. 31(2), 2018, pp. 169-187.
• Anthea Roberts, Henrique Choer Moraes and Victor Ferguson, “Toward a
Geoeconomic Order in International Trade and Investment,” Journal of International
Economic Law, Vol. 22, 2019, pp, 655-676. (Also look at the pair of short articles that
ends with: Rush Doshi, “China’s Ten-Year Struggle Against U.S. Financial Power,”
Commentary, The National Bureau of Asian Research, January 6, 2020.)

Week 4: Tuesday, April 21: China and Global Security

As China has become wealthier and acquired interests beyond its borders, Beijing has spent
more to upgrade the capabilities and expand the reach of its People’s Liberation Army. What
is the focus of Chinese military modernization? Are China’s military goals legitimate? Will
China use force? What to make of China’s ambitions for Taiwan and the South China Sea?
• PRC State Council Information Office, China’s National Defense in the New Era, White
Paper, July 2019, Chs. 1-3.

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• US Department of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s

Republic of China, Annual Report to Congress, 2018. (Ch. 1)
• John Mearsheimer, “The Gathering Storm: China’s Challenge to US Power in Asia,”
The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol. 3, 2010, pp. 381-396.
• Adam P. Liff and G. John Ikenberry, “Racing Toward Tragedy?: China’s Rise, Military
Competition in the Asia Pacific, and the Security Dilemma,” International Security,
Vol. 39(2), 2014, pp. 52-91.
• Feng Zhang, “China’s Long March at Sea: Explaining Beijing’s South China Sea
Strategy, 2009-2016,” The Pacific Review, 2019. (Browse: “China’s Maritime
Disputes,” Council on Foreign Relations.)

Week 5: Tuesday, April 28: China and Global Governance

China’s mounting economic importance has converted into increased diplomatic influence.
How is Chinese power affecting multilateral organizations like the United Nations and
prevailing norms like democracy and human rights? Should these trends be accommodated or
resisted? Is China a revisionist power trying to undermine global governance and order?
• PRC State Council Information Office, China in the World in the New Era, White
Paper, September 2019.
• Jonathan Holslag, “The Smart Revisionist,” Survival, Vol. 56(5), 2014, pp. 95-116.
• Ted Piccone, China’s Long Game on Human Rights at the United Nations, Brookings
Institution, September 2018.
• Melanie Hart and Blaine Johnson, Mapping China’s Global Governance Ambitions,
Center for American Progress, February 2019.
• Alastair Iain Johnston, “China in a World of Orders: Rethinking Compliance and
Challenge in Beijing’s International Relations,” International Security, Vol. 44(2),
2019, pp. 9-60

PART III: KEY ISSUES & DEBATES

Week 6: Tuesday, May 5: Will Chinese Technology Dominate the World?

POLICY BRIEFING SIMULATIONS
More details on format and readings will be provided two weeks before the briefings.

Week 7: Tuesday, May 12: Is the Belt and Road Initiative the Future of Development?
China claims to be the world’s largest developing country but it is also a significant provider
of aid, concessional finance, and infrastructure development in Africa, Asia, and Latin
America, especially via the “Belt and Road Initiative.” What’s China’s endgame? How much do
partner countries benefit? Does Beijing use “debt-trap diplomacy”? Should other countries
work with or against China in international development?
• Office of the Leading Group for the Belt and Road Initiative, “Building the Belt and
Road: Concept, Practice and China’s Contribution,” May 2017 (skim).
• Nadège Rolland, China’s Eurasian Century? Political and Strategic Implications of the
Belt and Road Initiative, National Bureau of Asian Research, 2017, Ch. 3.

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• Ryan Manuel, “Twists in the Belt and Road,” China Leadership Monitor, September 1,
2019.
• Brahma Chellaney, “China’s Debt-Trap Diplomacy,” Project Syndicate, January 23,
2017.
• Maria Abi-Habib, “How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port,” The New York
Times, June 25, 2018.
• W. Gyude Moore, ‘The Language of “Debt-Trap Diplomacy” Reflects Western
Anxieties, Not African Realities,’ Quartz, September 17, 2018.
• Kevin P. Gallagher and Amos Irwin, “China’s Economic Statecraft in Latin America:
Evidence from China’s Policy Banks,” Pacific Affairs, Vol. 88(1), 2015, pp. 99-121.
• Axel Dreher et al, “Apples and Dragon Fruits: The Determinants of Aid and Other
Forms of State Financing from China to Africa,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol.
62, 2018, pp. 182-194.

Week 8: Tuesday, May 19: Can China Lead on Energy, Environment & Climate?
China’s economic growth has generated enormous demand for natural resources both in in
China and abroad, which has changed energy markets, created new geopolitical dynamics,
and put new stresses on the global climate and environment. Yet, as well as being part of the
problem, China seems to be a key player in any viable solutions. Will China lead? How much
responsibility should developing countries like China shoulder? Will the world let China lead?
How might cooperation on global issues like climate change become secondary to strategic
concerns that other countries have about China?
• Eleanor Albert and Beina Xu, “China’s Environmental Crisis,” Council on Foreign
Relations, January 18, 2016.
• International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2017: China, November 2017.
• Lachlan Carey and Sarah Ladislaw, “Chinese Multilateralism and the Promise of a
Green Belt and Road,” CSIS Briefs, Center for Strategic and International Studies,
November 5, 2019.
• David Sandalow, Guide to Chinese Climate Policy 2019, Columbia SIPA Center on
Global Energy Policy, September 2019. (Part I.)
• Anita Engels, “Understanding How China is Championing Climate Change
Negotiations,” Palgrave Communications [Nature], Vol. 4, 2018.
• Craig Hart, Zhu Jiayan and Ying Jiahui, Mapping China’s Climate & Energy Policies,
Development Technologies International, December 2018. (Part III.)
• Lindsey Ford and Max Hill, “China’s Evolving Ties with the Middle East,” Asia’s New
Pivot, Asia Society, August 8, 2019.

Week 9: Tuesday, May 26: Is China Exporting Authoritarianism?

Is China trying to spread a “China Model” of authoritarian governance abroad? China’s
government uses agencies like the United Front Work Department abroad to exert political
influence in overseas Chinese communities and push official narratives with foreign elites.
Why? Has Beijing been effective? How legitimate are accusations of “election meddling” and
“political interference”? Is China’s rise an ideological threat to democracy?
• Scott Kennedy, “The Myth of the Beijing Consensus,” Journal of Contemporary China,
Vol. 19(65), 2010, pp. 461-477.

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• Thorsten Benner et al, Authoritarian Advance: Responding to China’s Growing

Political Influence in Europe, Global Public Policy Institute & Mercator Institute for
China Studies, February 2018, pp. 10-38.
• Jessica Chen Weiss, “A World Safe for Autocracy? China’s Rise and the Future of
Global Politics,” Foreign Affairs, June 11, 2019.
• Elizabeth C. Economy, “Yes, Virginia, China is Exporting Its Model,” Council on
Foreign Relations, December 11, 2019.
• Paul Mozur, Jonah M. Kessel and Melissa Chan, “Made in China, Exported to the
World: The Surveillance State,” The New York Times, April 24, 2019.

Week 10: Tuesday, June 2: Will US-China Relations Become a New Cold War?
FINAL PAPER HARD COPY DUE BEFORE CLASS
The US-China relationship is undoubtedly the most important dyad in international politics,
but political tightening in Beijing and political disruption in Washington have seen bilateral
ties sink to their lowest point in decades. The West has become increasingly disillusioned with
China’s trajectory and influential voices argue that the US should end its “engagement” of
China in favor of “confrontation,” raising the possibility of a “New Cold War.” Did US policy
toward China fail? What is changing in US-China relations? Could China become a new Soviet
Union? What impact will this have on global politics? Could anyone “win” a New Cold War?
• Liu Mingfu, “The World is Too Important to Be Left to America,” The Atlantic, June 4
2015.
• Robert Zoellick, “Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility?” Remarks to
National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, New York City, September 21, 2005.
• Mike Pence, “The Administration’s Policy Towards China,” Speech at the Heritage
Institute, October 4, 2018.
• White House, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, December
2017 (Introduction).
• Kurt Campbell and Ely Ratner, “The China Reckoning: How Beijing Defied American
Expectations,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2018.
• Wang Jisi et al, “Did America Get China Wrong? The Engagement Debate,” Foreign
Affairs, July/August 2018.
• Elbridge A. Colby and A. Wess Mitchell, “The Age of Great Power Competition: How
the Trump Administration Refashioned American Strategy,” Foreign Affairs,
January/February 2020.
• Fareed Zakaria, “The New China Scare: Why America Shouldn’t Panic About its
Latest Challenger,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2020.