Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2021
Global Indices Performance
Returns Performance - February 2021
8 7
6 6 6
6 5
5 Global Equity Markets
Absolute Returns (%)
4 3
4 3 3 ended the month on a
2
2 2 1 positive note as steady
1
progress on COVID
0
vaccination and hopes
-2 -1
of US fiscal stimulus
-2
-4 revived sentiments
South Korea
Japan
US
France
UK
Singapore
Taiwan
China
Switzerland
Indonesia
Germany
Russia
Hong Kong
Brazil
India
Europe
Germany - DAX Index; China - SSE Composite Index; France - CAC 40 Index; Japan - Nikkei; Eurozone - Euronext 100; Hong Kong - HangSeng; US - Dow Jones; Singapore - Strait Times; Russia - RTS Index; Indonesia - Jakarta
Composite Index; U.K. - FTSE; South Korea - Kospi; Brazil - Ibovespa Sao Paulo Index; Indonesia – Jakarta Composite Index; Switzerland – Swiss Market Index; Taiwan – Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation; India – S&P BSE
Sensex; Returns in % terms. GDP – Gross Domestic Product. Data Source: MFI & ACEMF JP Morgan; Returns are absolute returns for the index calculated between Jan 31, 2021 – Feb 28, 2021. Past performance may or may not
sustain in future. COVID – Coronavirus Disease. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html
2
India – Sectoral Indices Performance
Returns Performance - February 2021
28
24
24 22 21
Absolute Returns (%)
20
16 15 Broadly all major
16 14 14
12 recovery oriented sectors
12 11 11
like Metal, Power,
8 6
4 4 Infrastructure, etc. were
4 1 outperformers with
0 increased demand while
-4 -1 -2 defensives like FMCG &
Oil & Gas
Telecom
Infra
Bankex
FMCG
IT
Basic Mat.
CD
HC
Power
Finance
CG
Auto
Realty
Metal
Energy
All indices are of S&P BSE and carry the prefix of S&P BSE; Abbreviated CD - S&P BSE Consumer Durables; CG - S&P BSE Capital Goods; FMCG - S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods; HC - S&P BSE Health Care; Infra. - S&P BSE India
Infrastructure; IT - S&P BSE Information Technology, NBFC – Non-banking Finance Companies. Data Source: MFI, ACEMF ; Returns are absolute returns for the TRI variant of the index (except Infrastructure Index) calculated between Jan
31, 2021 – Feb 28, 2021; Past performance may or may not sustain in future. The sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position
in this sector(s)/stock(s). MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html.
3
EQUITY OUTLOOK:
Emerging Markets especially India poised to do well
Govt. focus on Growth positive for Equities
4
Global Liquidity – Positive for Emerging Markets
Global Economies have expanded their balance sheets manifold in the last decade
thereby increasing liquidity. This is positive for Emerging Markets
Global broad money supply growth (% YoY) Change in Central Banks Balance Sheets
16 (% of GDP, 12M change)
Multi-Decade High
14 15%
12
10%
10
8 5%
6
0%
Nov-08
Nov-10
Nov-12
Nov-14
Nov-16
Nov-18
Nov-20
4
Jul-04
Jul-15
Nov-00
Nov-11
Sep-13
May-06
May-17
Sep-02
Jan-99
Jan-10
Jan-21
Mar-08
Mar-19
-5%
US EA Japan UK
Source: Edelweiss Research, Morgan Stanley Research. Data as Jan 31, 2021
5
Declining COVID & Timely Vaccine Rollout – Positive for Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EM) like India & Brazil have been witnessing a decline in COVID-19 infection rates compared to
Developed Market (DM) peers. Vaccine rollout too, appears to be timely considering the huge population of EMs
of population)
4%
3%
2%
China Korea
1%
0% As of Feb 9, 2021, 40 Mn Plans to complete first dose
(~3% of population) by Sep-21
117
104
130
143
156
169
182
195
208
221
234
247
13
26
39
52
65
78
91
0
6
Underperformance of EMs Vs. DMs – Positive for Emerging Markets
450
350
250 Time
for
150 EMs
50
Feb-90
Feb-91
Feb-92
Feb-93
Feb-94
Feb-95
Feb-96
Feb-97
Feb-98
Feb-99
Feb-00
Feb-01
Feb-02
Feb-03
Feb-04
Feb-05
Feb-06
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
MSCI World Index ex EM MSCI EM Index
Source: Morgan Stanley Research. Data as Feb 28, 2021. Values have been re-based to 100
7
Depreciation of US Dollar Index – Positive for Emerging Markets
Historically, MSCI EM Index has performed when Dollar Index depreciates. Currently, Dollar Index is
depreciating due to excess Dollar liquidity. Going forward, we expect the Dollar to
depreciate further and EMs to perform
MSCI Emerging Market Index Vs. US Dollar Index
MSCI Emerging Market index
1400
1200
90
1000
80
800
600 70
2021
2010
2012
2013
2015
2016
2018
2019
MSCI Emerging Market Index US Dollar Index (DXY)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research. Data as Feb 28, 2021
8
INDIA :
A bright spot amongst
Emerging Markets
9
COVID-19 cases well past the peak
Daily COVID cases are now declining in India and well past the peak observed in mid-September.
India has been able to better manage and overcome the Pandemic Vs. Developed Nations & other Emerging Markets
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Aug-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Sep-20
Daily New Cases Daily New Cases, 7 day average
Source: Morgan Stanley Research. Data as Feb 28, 2021
10
Recovery –
Improving High Frequency Indicators
Indicators such as Google Mobility and various other High Frequency Data highlight a V-shaped recovery
Apr-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Oct-20
Feb-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Jul-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Aug-20
Dec-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Apr-20
May-20
Nov-20
Jun-20
Feb-20
Feb-21
Mar-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Retail and Recreation Grocery and Pharmacy Exports GST Collections Two Wheeler Sales
Parks Transit Stations
Workplaces Residential Passenger Vehicles Power Demand, RS Rail Freight, RS
Source: Morgan Stanley Research. Data as of Feb 28, 2021. GST – Goods & Services Tax
11
Recovery –
Improving High Frequency Indicators
Manufacturing PMI has been holding the fort steady with a reading above 50 (indicating expansion).
GST collections too have been steady above 1 Tn mark
1,200 1,198
55 1,108 1,131
1,052
976
50 1,000 909
45 800
620
40 600
35 400 323
30
200
25
0
Dec-20
May-20
Jul-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Jan-20
Feb-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-20
Apr-20
Nov-20
May-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Jun-20
Feb-20
Feb-21
Jan-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Source: Morgan Stanley Research. Data as of Feb 28, 2021
12
Healthy Forex Reserves
India’s foreign exchange reserves have been high above ~US $580 for the 3rd consecutive month.
The reserves are sufficient to cover more than 12 months of imports
Aug-19
Apr-20
Dec-19
Aug-20
Dec-20
Jul-19
Jul-20
Mar-19
Mar-20
Oct-19
Feb-20
Jun-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Jun-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
Nov-19
Nov-20
May-19
May-20
Source: JP Morgan. Data as of Feb 19, 2021
13
Govt. & RBI efforts to support Growth
Govt. is funding the large fiscal deficit caused by COVID
The RBI too has been providing full support through
driven stimulus measures through aggressive market
aggressive OMO purchase of Rs. 2.3tn in 8M FY21
borrowings this year
Central Govt. market borrowings (Rs. tn) RBI's Open Market Operations:
Net purchase (Rs. bn)
10.5 910
8.5
6.3 463
295 328
4.7
225
0 37 17
Gross market borrowings Net market borrowings
Jul-20
Jun-20
May-20
Sep-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Apr-20
Nov-20
Apr-Jan FY20 Apr-Jan FY21
14
Central Government’s
Union Budget FY21-22:
GROWTH TAKES CENTRESTAGE
15
Growth: GDP = C + I + G + NX
C I G NX
CONSUMPTION INVESTMENT GOVT. SPENDING NET EXPORTS
In an environment wherein Consumption, Investment and Net Exports are muted, the Govt. has aptly taken steps to
ramp up spending in sectors such as Infrastructure, Banks & Finance, etc. which are integral to Economic Growth
Source: Budget Document (https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/index.php). NCLT – National Company Law Tribunal, PSU – Public Sector Undertaking, IPO – Initial Public Offering, LIC – Life Insurance Corporation of India, ULIP – Unit Linked
Insurance Plan, FDI – Foreign Direct Investment, * Please consult your tax advisor for more details
16
Union Budget – Key Highlights
Infrastructure
Power & Gas Tax Benefits
• ~1 Lakh Crs allocated
to both Railways and • No TDS on dividend
Road Transport & • Liquidity support for distribution by REIT &
Highways each DISCOMS InvITs
• Development Finance • 100 cities to be • Tax deduction benefits
Institution will target to added to city gas for affordable housing
lend at least Rs. 5 Tn in distribution network extended to FY22
next 3 years
Source: Budget Document (https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/index.php). Capex – Capital Expenditure, GIC – General Insurance Company, DISCOMS – Distribution Companies, TDS – Tax Deducted at Source, REIT – Real Estate Investment Trust,
InvITs – Infrastructure Investment Trust.
17
Pro-Growth announcements & sector impact
Source: Budget Document (https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/index.php). Capex – Capital Expenditure, PPP – Public Private Partnership, MGNREGA – Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme
18
Pro-Growth announcements & sector impact
Source: Budget Document (https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/index.php). NCLT – National Company Law Tribunal, PSU – Public Sector Undertaking, IPO – Initial Public Offering, LIC – Life Insurance Corporation of India, ULIP – Unit Linked
Insurance Plan, FDI – Foreign Direct Investment, * Please consult your tax advisor for more details
19
Other vital statistics & announcements…
Source: Budget Document (https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/index.php). COVID – Coronavirus disease. GDP – Gross Domestic Product
20
Current Market Scenario
21
Value Vs. Growth
MSCI EM Value Vs. MSCI EM Growth Index
127
130
100
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Sep-20
Jan-21
MSCI EM Growth Index MSCI EM Value Index
Source: Morgan Stanley. Time Period considered – Sep 30, 2020 to Feb 28, 2021. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. EM – Emerging Markets
22
Value Vs. Growth
Marketcap Change (Since Feb'18 till Feb'21)
100% 91%
80%
Post 2018 market fall, market
60%
rally was concentrated and
40% 36% 32%
23% led by Growth stocks. Going
20% 13% forward, we expect the rally
0% to be more broad based on
the back of growth picking up
-20% -13% and expansionary policy
-40% measures by Global Central
-60% -49% Banks
>=501
Top 10
101-250
251-500
Top 11-20
Top 21-50
Top 51-100
Total Universe considered is 1663 listed stocks. Stocks are arranged in descending order as per Marketcap. Marketcap change is considered for period between 28-Feb-18 and 28-Feb-21. Source: Edelweiss Research. Past
performance may or may not sustain in future
23
Value Investing
Value Vs. Dollar movement
MSCI EM Value Index Vs US Dollar Index
300 110
US Dollar Index
90 US Dollar depreciates
200
• As can be seen, MSCI EM
80
Value Index has begun
150 performing
70
Jul-14
Dec-18
Jun-13
May-12
Feb-09
Aug-15
Oct-16
Jan-20
Feb-21
Mar-10
Apr-11
Nov-17
further and Value to perform
Source: Morgan Stanley. Data as of Feb 28, 2021. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. EM - Emerging Markets
24
Value Investing through
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund
PORTFOLIO POSITIONING
The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information Document of the Scheme. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document
25
Asset Allocation Approach –
Better equipped to handle Turning Points
ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FOF) aims to allocate across Equity, Debt & Gold
basis relative valuations
S&P BSE Sensex Levels Vs ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FOF) net equity exposure (%)
ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund
90% 50,000
83%
Jul-20
Dec-20
Jun-20
May-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Jan-20
Feb-20
Aug-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-20
Apr-20
Nov-20
Net Equity Level S&P BSE Sensex
Source: MFI. Net Equity levels are as on month ends,. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes with in the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the scheme. Please refer to the SID for investment pattern, strategy and risk factors. Data as on
Feb 28, 2021. The asset allocation and investment strategy of the Scheme will be as per Scheme Information Document. Past performance may or may not sustain in future. MFI Explorer is a tool provided by ICRA Online Ltd. For their standard disclaimer please visit
http://www.icraonline.com/legal/standard-disclaimer.html. Investors may please note that they will be bearing the recurring expenses of this Scheme in addition to the expenses of the underlying Schemes in which this Scheme makes investment.
26
Triggers to Current Market Rally
We believe the current market rally may last till below triggers come into action
and that Macros are going to be utmost important going forward
27
ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund –
Navigating Business Cycles with Nimbleness
With macro environment expected to be highly dynamic, there arises a need for scheme that is
nimble enough to participate across different Business Cycles at any given point in time
Recession Capacity
Growth Growth
Trend
Output
Recovery
Slump
Time
The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the Scheme.
28
History suggests –
Sectoral Leadership has changed with every Crisis
2000 (Dot Com Bubble) 2008 (Lehman Crisis) Now (COVID-19 Pandemic)
CONSUMER GOODS 27.5% OIL & GAS 19.3% FINANCIAL SERVICES 39.5%
30
Why ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund Now?
• Concentration – The scheme focuses on limited high conviction ideas which increases the possibility of maximising alpha
• Valuations – At this juncture, Valuations are not cheap. However, there are certain pockets where Valuations are still reasonable.
The scheme with limited number of stocks, aims to thoroughly identify and invest in opportunities which are still available at
reasonable valuations
• Bottom-up approach to Stock Selection – Market continues to remain polarized with many fundamentally strong stocks still
available at reasonable valuations. The scheme endeavours to identify and invest in such opportunities
• Benchmark Cognizant – While keeping scheme sector weights under observation, the portfolio holdings may deviate from the
benchmark and hence can be called as a Benchmark Cognizant approach
• Optimal Diversification – Due to above mentioned approach, the scheme is both adequately concentrated and diversified thereby
increasing the probability of better returns
• Recovery Oriented – The portfolio is recovery oriented i.e. sectors which may benefit from prevailing economic cycle are
considered. E.g. currently the portfolio is more biased towards financials and consumer non durables, in Jan-Mar 2020, portfolio
was biased towards defensives like Pharma & IT
• Nimble – The flexibility to move across theme/marketcaps and relatively smaller fund size provides ample opportunities for stock
selection
The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information Document of the Scheme. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document. The
sector(s)/stock(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this sector(s)/stock(s). Portfolio data as of Feb 28, 2021
31
Asset Allocation Approach –
Better equipped to handle Turning Points
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund aims to allocate between Equity & Debt basis market valuations
S&P BSE Sensex Levels Vs. ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund Net Equity Levels (%)
74
44000
41254 65
40000
55
36000
29468 45
32000 46 38
28000 35
Feb-20
Feb-21
Aug-20
Apr-20
Dec-19
Oct-20
Dec-20
Jun-20
32
Multi-Asset Allocation Approach –
An array of opportunities across asset classes
Equity
19%
2% Gold
4%
Units of Real Estate Investment Trusts
(REITs) & Infrastructure Investment
Trusts (InvITs)
75% Debt Holdings & Net Current Assets
Data as of Feb 28, 2021, Equity portion is excluding the derivative exposure and including preference shares. The portfolio has exposure of 7.77% to Gold ETCDs (Exchange Traded Commodity Derivatives)
33
Why ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund Now?
• Valuations – Equity Valuations are not cheap. Also, the way forward will depend on various macro factors
like inflation, interest rates, economic activity pick-up, timely vaccine roll-out, Global Central Banks fiscal
and monetary stance etc.
• Interest Rates – The interest rates are lower, hence debt as an asset class is expected to deliver average
returns
• Macro Uncertainty – In such a scenario of rising uncertainty with regards to various macro factors and low
interest rate environment, allocating funds in various asset classes is recommended
• The approach of ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund is to invest in various asset classes with an aim to
provide:
Capital appreciation by investing in equities,
Accrual returns by investing in debt,
Aim to hedge against inflation by investing in gold
Yield enhancement by investing in REITs & InVITs and by writing covered call option.
• Equity Taxation* is applicable to the scheme as the scheme invests minimum 65% in equity along with
exposure to various other asset classes
* Consult your tax advisor for more details. REITs – Real Estate Investment Trusts; InvITs – Infrastructure Investment Trusts. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information Document
of the Scheme. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document. Portfolio as on Feb 28, 2021x 34
Our Equity Outlook
• Indian Economy is recovering better than Developed Nations post pandemic
• With Govt.’s focus mainly on Growth, we believe economic environment is becoming more conducive for a
Business Cycle recovery and hence for Equities
• We continue to remain positive on sectors which are closely linked to economy like Banks, Capital Goods,
Infrastructure, Metals/Mining etc.
• Market volatility too may continue given uncertainty related to COVID and Global Central Bank policies
• Macro economic environment is going to be critical and we may witness change in sectoral leaderships
• Recent market rally was narrow driven by select Growth stocks. Going forward, we expect broad-based
reasonably valued companies to perform
• We are in a boom phase and our recommendations can be summed up using the acronym A-B-C-D (Please
refer next slide for more details)
35
Investment Themes: ABCD
A C
C
ICICI Prudential Business ycle Fund – Invest in
A
ICICI Prudential sset Allocator Fund (FOF) – scheme which is nimble enough to move across
Takes exposure across asset classes i.e. Equity, sectors/marketcap as Business Cycles change
Debt & Gold
B D
D
Strategies which are available at a iscount to the
B
ICICI Prudential alanced Advantage Fund – broader markets – ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund,
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund, ICICI Prudential
Dynamically manages equity & debt allocation basis
India Opportunities Fund, ICICI Prudential Dividend Yield
Market Valuations Equity Fund, ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund
The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document.
36
Our Top SIP Recommendations
SIP
SIP – Systematic Investment Plan. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document.
37
Our Long term SIP Recommendations with Freedom SIP
SIP
ICICI Prudential
ICICI Prudential ICICI Prudential ICICI Prudential ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund &
Value Discovery India Opportunities Bluechip Fund Focused Equity
ICICI Prudential
Fund Fund Fund
Smallcap Fund
ICICI Prudential Freedom SIP* is a combination of Smart Features, to help investors achieve their Financial Goals. Freedom SIP allows investors
to switch the SIP investments to a target scheme, post completion of the SIP tenure & monthly SWP will continue from the target scheme
SIP – Systematic Investment Plan, SWP – Systematic Withdrawal Plan. ICICI Prudential Freedom SIP is an optional feature that allows initial investments through SIP, switch toanother scheme after a pre- defined tenure and
SWP post that. ^The SWP will be processed either till Dec2099 or till units are available in target scheme, whichever is earlier. Please read the terms and conditions inthe application form before investing..For source and
target scheme names,refer the Application Form of ICICI Prudential Freedom SIP. ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund reserves the right tomake changes in the source and target schemes. Investor may please note that ICICI
Prudential Freedom SIPis different from ICICI Prudential Freedom SWP.The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. *For more information visit www.icicipruamc.com
38
Our Equity Valuation Index
170
50
Feb-05
Feb-06
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio. G-Sec – Government Securities. GDP – Gross Domestic Product, Data as of Feb 28, 2021
39
FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK:
AA Strategy (Active Duration & Accrual)
expected to do well
40
Yield Curve Movement
Longer end remained volatile due to bond supply concerns and due to expectations of inflation moving up
with the continued uptick in economic recovery
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3 3
1M 3M 6M 1 Yr 2Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 1M 3M 6M 1 Yr 2Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs
04-Mar-21 31-Jan-21 04-Mar-21 31-Jan-21
Data as on Mar 4, 2021, CRISIL Research
41
Inflation & Interest Rates
Higher Fiscal support with credit pick-up may result in stronger recovery. This may come with a risk of
elevated inflation and likely result in interest rate volatility
-15.0%
8%
-20.0%
-25.0% -23.9%
Q2 FY19
Q3 FY19
Q4 FY19
Q1 FY20
Q2 FY20
Q3 FY20
Q4 FY20
Q1 FY21
Q2 FY21
Q3 FY22
4%
Jul-19
Jul-20
May-19
Sep-19
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Mar-19
Nov-19
Mar-20
Nov-20
Source: GDP - MOSPI. Data as of Dec 31, 2020. Credit Growth – RBI. Data as of Feb 12, 2021
42
Fixed Income Outlook
• Fixed income market remained volatile. The spike in bond yields can also be attributed to
Lack of regular Open Market Operation (OMO) announcements
Misalignment of yields/price expectations resulting in devolvement of certain auctions amid investor concerns over excessive
supply
Concerns around inflation.
• We believe higher fiscal support with credit pick-up may result in stronger growth recovery. This may come with risk of
elevated inflation and likely interest rate volatility
• In our Outlook 2021*, we have highlighted that the capital gains strategy has played out meaningfully and going forward
return expectations need to be rationalized
• RBI is expected to continue gradual normalization of liquidity management operations as the growth & economic activity
picks-up
• As communicated earlier, we believe that we are at the fag end of interest rate cycle and in the current phase, more nimble
and active duration management strategy is recommended to benefit from high term premium and to manage portfolios from
expected high interest rate sensitivity
• We continue to recommend Accrual strategy with an aim to benefit from higher carry
*Please click on following link for detailed outlook 2021document – https://www.icicipruamc.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/icici-prudential-outlook-2021---investor-ppt.pdf?sfvrsn=f9a51a98_2
43
Fixed Income Space – Pick your side!
A(3 Year)
Gsec(10 Year)
AA(3 Year)
A1+(6Mnth CD)
AAA(3 Year)
Source: CRISIL Research, Data as on Mar 4, 2021, CD – Certificate of Deposit, bps – basis points, Past performance may or may not sustain in future
44
Some Basics with illustrations
Steeper the yield curve, higher the term premium,
Higher the spread premium, higher would be the risk
which may make the longer end of the
reward benefit to move to higher spread assets
yield curve more attractive
Term Premium Credit Spread/Spread Premium
3 Year -GSEC X -
Rate (%)
Yield 2
Yield 3
3 Year- AA Z Z minus X
Duration (Years)
45
Current Scenario
Currently, the term premium is at one of the highest Currently, the spread premium is reasonably high
levels seen in the last 10 years compared to repo rate
3 260 bps
8 S
2 P
Term Premium (%)
7 R
Yields (%)
Average 79 bps
1 Avg. 96 E
6 bps A
0
Avg. D
-1 5 56 bps
-2 4
-3
3
Feb-08
Feb-02
Feb-03
Feb-04
Feb-05
Feb-06
Feb-07
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
6 Months 1 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr
Term Premium (10 Yr Gsec - 1 Yr Tbill) % Long Term Average Premium % AA AAA Gsec Repo Rate
Source: CRISIL Research, Data as on Mar 4, 2021. Past performance may or may not sustain in future
46
Product Strategy & Recommendations –
Surplus Parking Space
YTM-28-Feb-2021 (%)
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5 5.0
4.9
5.0
Low carry zone over repo 4.5
4.5
4.0 Repo Rate
3.5 3.2 3.6
3.0 3.4
2.5
ICICI Prudential ICICI Prudential Liquid ICICI Prudential ICICI Prudential ICICI Prudential Ultra ICICI Prudential
Overnight Fund Fund Money Market Fund Savings Fund Short Term Fund Floating Interest Fund
Data as of Feb 28, 2021., Past performance may or may not sustain in future. This graph is used to indicate current YTM and does not indicate in any manner performance of the scheme.
47
Product Strategy & Recommendations –
Short Term Parking Space
8.0
7.03 7.54
7.0
5.95
6.0
5.11
4.94 4.98 Modified Modified
5.0 Duration : Duration :
2.14 Yrs. 2.44 Yrs.
4.0 Repo Rate
3.0
ICICI Prudential ICICI Prudential ICICI Prudential Short ICICI Prudential ICICI Prudential All ICICI Prudential Credit
Corporate Bond Fund Banking & PSU Debt Term Fund Medium Term Bond Seasons Bond Fund Risk Fund
Fund Fund
Data as of Feb 28, 2021., Past performance may or may not sustain in future. This graph is used to indicate current YTM and does not indicate in any manner performance of the scheme.
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Portfolio Positioning
• In short duration schemes, we aim to run Barbell Strategy to benefit from term premium
and to reduce interest rate volatility
• In Schemes which aim to invest in short end of the yield curve, we have added
exposure towards Floating Rate Bonds (FRB)
• We have added good quality AA Corporate Bond in select portfolios, due to higher
spread premium
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Active Duration Management
(A) (B) (C)
Change in Mod.
Scheme Name Mod. Duration (Yrs) Mod. Duration (Yrs) Mod Duration (Yrs)
Duration (C-A)
(Nov 30,2020) (Jan 31,2021) (Feb 28,2021)
ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund 0.10 0.06 0.10 0.00
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund 0.33 0.29 0.24 -0.09
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund 0.39 0.38 0.38 -0.01
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund 0.89 0.74 0.55 -0.34
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund 1.19 0.67 0.54 -0.65
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund 2.09 1.58 1.38 -0.71
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 2.41 1.76 1.61 -0.80
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 2.94 1.54 1.76 -1.18
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 3.30 1.56 1.79 -1.51
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund 3.23 2.37 2.14 -1.09
ICICI Prudential Bond Fund 5.05 4.23 3.96 -1.09
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund 4.34 2.50 2.44 -1.90
ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund 7.82 7.80 7.14 -0.68
ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund 7.66 4.00 5.53 -2.13
Data as on Feb 28, 2021, Past performance may or may not be sustained in future, Mod. Duration is Modified Duration
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Add Spread Assets
Spread Assets
AAA/A1+ AA Below AA-
Cash* + Modified
Scheme Name YTM
Gsec^ (% Holding) (% Holding) (% Holding) Duration
ICICI Prudential Overnight Fund 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 1 Day
ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund 51.7% 48.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 36 Days
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund 46.2% 53.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 88 Days
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund 21.3% 42.6% 34.8% 1.3% 4.9% 138 Days
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund 52.3% 35.7% 12.0% 0.0% 4.5% 201 Days
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund 47.1% 28.0% 24.6% 0.4% 5.0% 199 Days
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 28.9% 71.7% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 1.76 Yrs.
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 36.6% 47.5% 15.9% 0.0% 5.1% 1.61 Yrs.
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund 26.1% 55.5% 18.3% 0.0% 5.0% 1.79 Yrs.
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund 19.3% 18.5% 62.2% 0.0% 7.0% 2.14 Yrs.
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund# 20.7% 6.3% 51.6% 15.2% 7.5% 1.38 Yrs.
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund 45.4% 13.4% 41.2% 0.0% 5.9% 2.44 Yrs.
Data as on Feb 28, 2021, Past performance may or may not be sustained in future, * Includes TREPS & Net Current Assets, ^ Includes Treasury Bills, # - Excludes unrated which stands at 2.8%
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Our Debt Valuation Index
10
9 Highly Aggressive
8
7 Aggressive We continue to remain very
6 cautious on duration as the
5 interest rates are expected to
Moderate
4
remain volatile due to higher
bond supply, RBI normalizing
3 Cautious
liquidity and upside risk to
2
inflation due to economic
1 Very Cautious
1.00 recovery
0
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Feb-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Feb-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Feb-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Feb-21
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-20
Data as on Feb 28, 2021. Debt Valuation Index considers WPI, CPI, Sensex returns, Gold returns and Real estate returns over G-Sec yield, Current Account Balance, Fiscal Balance, Credit Growth and Crude Oil
Movement for calculation. RBI – Reserve Bank of India
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Scheme Recommendations – Fixed Income/Arbitrage
53
Our Equity Schemes
ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund An open ended equity scheme investing in both large cap and mid cap stocks.
ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in mid cap stocks.
ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in small cap stocks.
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy.
ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund An open ended equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap, small cap stocks.
ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund An Open Ended Equity Scheme following Special Situations theme
ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund An open ended equity scheme following Business Cycles based investing theme
An open ended equity scheme investing in maximum 30 stocks across market-
ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund
capitalization i.e. focus on multicap
ICICI Prudential Dividend Yield Equity Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in dividend yielding stocks
ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund An open ended equity scheme following infrastructure theme
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Our Hybrid Schemes / Fund of Funds Scheme
ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in debt instruments
ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund An open ended scheme investing in equity, arbitrage and debt.
An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in equity and equity related
ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund
instruments
An open ended scheme investing in Equity, Debt and Exchange Traded Commodity
ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund
Derivatives/units of Gold ETFs/units of REITs & InvITs/Preference shares
*Investors may please note that they will be bearing the recurring expenses of this Scheme in addition to the expenses of the underlying Schemes in which this Scheme makes investment.
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Our Fixed Income Schemes
Scheme Name Type of Scheme
An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund between 3 months and 6 months.
An open ended short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund between 1 Year and 3 Years.
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund An open ended medium term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between
3 Years and 4 Years. The Macaulay duration of the portfolio is 1 Year to 4 years under anticipated adverse situation.
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below rated corporate bonds.
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments (including fixed rate instruments
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund converted to floating rate exposures using swaps/derivatives).
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund An open ended dynamic debt scheme investing across duration.
An open ended low duration debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund between 6 months and 12 months
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in Debt instruments of banks, Public Sector Undertakings, Public
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund Financial Institutions and Municipal Bonds
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA+ and above rated corporate bonds.
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund An open ended debt scheme investing in money market instruments
ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund An open ended liquid scheme
An open ended medium to long term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is
ICICI Prudential Bond Fund
between 4 Years and 7 Years. The Macaulay duration of the portfolio is 1 Year to 7 years under anticipated adverse situation
ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund An open ended debt scheme investing in government securities across maturity
ICICI Prudential Overnight Fund An open ended debt scheme investing in overnight securities
ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund An open ended debt scheme with Macaulay duration greater than 7 years
Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price
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Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund is suitable for investors whoare seeking*:
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund is suitable for investors whoare seeking*:
ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Medium term savings
A debt scheme that aims to generate income through investing predominantly in AA and below rated corporate bonds while
maintaining the optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
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Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Long Term wealth creation
An open ended equity scheme that seeks to generate capital appreciation by predominantly investing in equity and equity related
securities of small cap companies.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
All durationsavings
A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while maintaining optimum balance
of yield, safety andliquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price
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Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Short term savings
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable forthem
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund (The scheme is suitable for investors who are seeking*)
ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Short term savings
An open ended low duration debt scheme that aims to maximize income by investing in debt and money market instruments
while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund is suitable for investors whoare seeking*:
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in highest rated corporate bonds
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
Macaulay duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price
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Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Money Market Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
A money market scheme that seeks to provide reasonable returns, commensurate with low risk while providing a high level of
liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Asset Allocator Fund (FoF) (An open ended fund of funds scheme investing in equity oriented schemes, debt oriented
schemes and gold ETFs/ schemes) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
Investors may please note that they will be bearing the recurring expenses of this Scheme in addition to the expenses of the underlying Schemes in which this Scheme makes investment.
ICICI Prudential Focused Equity Fund (An open ended equity scheme investing in maximum 30 stocks across market-capitalisation
i.e focus on multicap) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
• Long term wealth creation
• An open ended equity scheme investing in maximum 30 stocks across market-capitalisation.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
A Gilt scheme that aims to generate income through investment in Gilts of various maturities.
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
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Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Liquid Fund (an open ended liquid fund) is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
A liquid fund that aims to provide reasonable returns commensurate with low risk and providing a high level of liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Overnight Fund (an open ended debt scheme investing in overnight securities) is suitable for investors who are
seeking*:
Short term savings solution
An overnight fund that aims to provide reasonable returns commensurate with low risk and providing a high level of liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Long Term Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with an aim to maximise income while maintaining an optimum balance of
yield, safety and liquidity.
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with an aim to maximise income while maintaining an optimum balance of
yield, safety and liquidity.
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
63
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Business Cycle Fund (An open ended equity scheme following business cycles based investing theme) is suitable for
investors who are seeking*:
Long Term wealth creation
An equity scheme that invests in Indian markets with focus on riding business cycles through dynamic allocation between various
sectors and stocks at different stages of business cycles
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Equity Arbitrage Fund (An open ended scheme investing in arbitrage opportunities) is suitable for investors who are seeking*
ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund (An open ended equity scheme following Infrastructure theme) is suitable for investors who are seeking*
Long Term Wealth Creation
An open ended equity scheme that aims for growth by primarily investing in companies belonging to infrastructure & allied sectors
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Dividend Yield Equity Fund (An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in dividend yielding stocks) suitable
for investors who are seeking*:
Long Term wealth creation
An open ended equity scheme that aims for growth by primarily investing in equity and equity related instruments of dividend yielding companies.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Please note that the Risk-o-meter(s) specified above will be evaluated and updated on a monthly basis as per SEBI circular dated October 05, 2020 on Product Labelling in Mutual Fund schemes - Risk-o-meter. Please
refer to https://www.icicipruamc.com/news-and-updates/all-news for more details.
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Disclaimer
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
All figures and other data given in this document are dated. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any
data/information in this material from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other
person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Prospective investors are
advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units
of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future.
Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is pub-
licly available, including Budget speech and information developed in-house. The stock(s)/sector(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this stock(s). Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from mem-
bers/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material
used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any informa-
tion. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and
similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward
looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and
political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation,
deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Lim-
ited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature,
including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any
manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise or investment advice. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are
liable for any decision taken on this material.
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