If a building is designed for an earthquake hazard with a constant probability of

exceedance over its original design service life (i.e., 50 years), it becomes increasingly
less likely that the building will experience the design earthquake hazard as it nears the
end of its design service life. To demonstrate this concept, consider the expression for
the probability of exceedance P(n) in n years, based on the Poisson process given
below.

P ((n)) ＝ 1 - e -p ⋅ n

where P(per year) = (1/return period) denotes the probability of exceedance per year.
New buildings in Canada are designed for the effects of an earthquake with a
probability of exceedance P(n)=%2 over a service life of 50 years. This yields an annual
probability of exceedance P(per year) = 0.0404% and a return period of 2,475 years.
Assuming a constant probability of exceedance of 2%, the corresponding P(per year)
for an existing building with n=10 years remaining occupancy time is 0. 202%, which is
equal to a return period of 495 years.
This is roughly equivalent to a 10% in 50 years seismic event, which corresponds to a
return period of 475 years. Similarly, the return period for a building with 2 years of
remaining occupancy time for a hazard with a 2% chance of exceedance – is 97 years,
which is equivalent to a 40% in 50 years earthquake with a return period of 98 years.
Therefore, for a seismic hazard with a constant 20 probability of exceedance over a 50
year period, reducing the time horizon to less than the original service life of 50 years
implies a reduction in the equivalent earthquake return period, and consequently, a
reduction in the anticipated design response spectra.

P ((n)) ＝ 1 - e -p ⋅ n
ln ((0.98))
P1 ((n)) P(per year) P1 ((n)) ≔ ―――
-n
1
Return_period ((n)) ≔ ―――
P1 ((n))
( )
P ((n)) ≔ 1 - e -P1 (n) ⋅ 50

P1 ((50)) = 0.000404 P1 ((10)) = 0.0020203 P1 ((2)) = 0.0101014

Return_period ((50)) = 2475 Return_period ((10)) = 494.983 Return_period ((2)) = 98.997

P ((50)) = 0.02 P ((10)) = 0.096 P ((2)) = 0.397