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Quiet diplomacy
EditorialPublished April 27, 2021 - Updated 13 minutes ago

IT has now been confirmed that officials from the Pakistani and Indian governments
are engaged in quiet talks aimed at reducing tension in the region and resolving
outstanding conflicts, including the core issue of Jammu and Kashmir. According to a
report in this newspaper, officials have confirmed that the two adversaries have been
holding a backchannel dialogue since 2017.

However, in December last year, the talks went into higher gear when the Indian side approached the
Pakistani government for a deeper engagement. The Pakistani leadership responded favourably, and
as a result, a number of confidence-building measures have come to the fore, including a ceasefire
agreement at the Line of Control. Pakistani officials say there is a genuine desire to move towards a
peaceful resolution of disputes in order for Pakistan to achieve internal and external stability. So far
the talks are being held between senior intelligence officials from both sides. It is said that relevant
experts may join these talks once the agenda moves on to specific items. For now, these are talks
about talks.

Read: Pakistan ready to hold talks if India revisits some decisions, says FM Qureshi

But they should be welcomed. Pakistan and India cannot afford to go to war and the lesson of 2019 is
that both are closer to a conflict than they might want to admit. The only way to ensure a
conflagration does not break out is to make a genuine and sincere attempt at resolving disputes that
can potentially trigger a conflict. However, both Islamabad and New Delhi have been down this path
numerous times before, with very little to show for it. The lessons learnt, if any, are that the two sides
should move gradually and not rush into solutions. There are strong and influential lobbies on both
sides that can act as spoilers. It is therefore reasonable for these talks to remain quiet and discreet till
there is enough confluence of positions that can be brought into the glare of the public. In Pakistan,
past attempts have floundered because of differences of approach between the civil and military
leaderships. If the current talks have to be meaningful, it might be important to ensure not just that
Rawalpindi and Islamabad are in lockstep, but also that other political parties are brought into the
loop. There should be a broad consensus across the political spectrum on this strategic initiative so
that it does not fall victim to petty politicking.

In addition, past lessons also tell us that such major policies should not be confined to individual
decision-makers but should have a buy-in from all relevant institutions so that they do not remain
dependent on personal priorities. The present leadership that is piloting this new, bold and timely
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move to give peace a chance should invest time and effort in forging a broad consensus around this
policy. South Asia deserves a better future.

Published in Dawn, April 27th, 2021

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Misplaced euphoria
EditorialPublished April 27, 2021 - Updated about an hour ago

THE government is in a state of euphoria and is citing the current account surplus as a
successful attempt at stabilising the economy and plugging the erosion of forex
reserves. Certainly, the surplus of $959m in the first three quarters of the present
fiscal year is a significant improvement over the deficit of $4.147bn a year ago. But we
need to pause here and consider the factors that have contributed majorly to the
current account surplus and analyse the recent emerging trends that may reverse the
situation going forward. The surplus achieved so far can largely be credited to the
increased inflow of dollars in the shape of remittances and exports of IT services
through formal banking channels in recent months, mainly because of international
travel restrictions related to Covid-19 and improved compliance with FATF
conditions. Likewise, the restrictions are also attributed to decreased dollar outflows
with fewer Pakistanis travelling abroad for leisure, business or pilgrimage. The
question is whether these inflows will be sustained once the world returns to normal.

We also need to take into account the returning trend of the current account deficit since December.
Even though the cumulative deficit during the last two months has shrunk to just $78m from $854m
in December and January — again because of rising remittances and IT exports — it depicts an
emerging trend on the back of augmented imports of oil, machinery, steel products and raw material
as the economy picks up. Moreover, the food import bill is also spiking owing to domestic wheat and
sugar shortages. On the other hand, the country’s exports are slow to grow and unlikely to cover the
rise in the import bill anytime soon. That is not all. The financial account of the balance of payments,
which had been in surplus since July, has again turned into a deficit of more than $1.4bn in the last
three months as foreign direct investment plummets by 35pc, equity investors pull out their money
from stocks, foreign debt payments jack up and outflows of amortisation and other transactions grow.
Thus the overall balance-of-payments position, though improved, remains delicate. The government
needs to look at the whole picture rather than focusing on just one aspect. A stable external sector
demands that the government take urgent action to fix agriculture, loosen the noose around the
economy to help growth, and develop industrial infrastructure to attract foreign investors and boost
exports.

Published in Dawn, April 27th, 2021

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T20 series win

EditorialPublished April 27, 2021 - Updated about an hour ago

MANY would say that the Pakistan cricket team is synonymous with ‘unpredictability’.
Certainly, their sketchy performance against the lowly ranked Zimbabwe in the recent
T20 series held in Harare reflects this. The three-match series that went down to the
wire saw Babar Azam’s men win by the skin of their teeth as they struggled to post
competitive scores on the board. They even got dismissed inside 100 runs once. This
performance was in sharp contrast to their fine display against a much stronger South
Africa just two weeks ago; the Green Shirts had clinched back-to-back ODI and T20
series. Both critics and fans had predicted a 3-0 whitewash for Pakistan against the
11th-ranked Zimbabwe, though they ought to have realised that consistency has never
been the hallmark of Pakistan cricket teams. Pakistan’s overdependence on skipper
Babar Azam’s and wicketkeeper-batsman Mohammad Rizwan’s form for most of their
victories in recent months was once again evident against Zimbabwe. None of the other
batsmen made an impression while the bowlers, too, failed to pose any real challenge
to the opposition. Though Hasan Ali’s four wickets in the last game was indeed a
match-winning effort, all in all Pakistan failed to get their act together as a team
which should be of serious concern to the team management and the Pakistan Cricket
Board.

Given their chequered form and brittle nerves in pressure games, the team may not stand a chance
against leading teams such as England, Australia and India that have formidable squads and have
taken limited-overs cricket to a different level altogether. According to experts, Pakistan has not
progressed as they should have. The side is still stuck in the 1980s style of cricket, wasting too many
scoring opportunities and lagging behind due to their inability to develop pinch hitters who could
quickly change the complexion of a match. A change of mindset, therefore, is imperative if Pakistan is
to be counted among the major contenders for the World T20 title later this year.

Published in Dawn, April 27th, 2021

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Finding peace
Arifa NoorPublished April 27, 2021 - Updated 6 minutes ago

The writer is a journalist.

THE first tentative steps to peace have been taken. The ice is melting. The twins
separated at birth are reaching out to each other. Now that India and Pakistan have
both confirmed that they are talking to each other, let’s dust off all the clichés about
peace and dialogue in the subcontinent. For the time being till we hit a speed bump
again.

Read: Indian offer led to ‘quiet’ talks on all major issues

The beginning came with the news about the ceasefire at the LoC and then the stories about what led
to this change of heart. The trickle of information began from the Indian side and was considerably
detailed by mid-March; Pakistan entered the media fray much later to get their point of view out in
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the public nearly a month later. That India tends to get its side of the story out first is in itself a full-
length piece if someone would care to write it.

Now a piece in Dawn and an earlier report in Al Jazeera provide considerable detail on the thinking
on our side. Predictably, there will be discrepancies between the accounts emanating from the two
sides but this is hardly something new.

Neither is the idea of a dialogue. The leadership in Pakistan — civil and military — have since the late
1990s consistently and openly been in favour of talking to India and finding peace. Nawaz Sharif in his
second and third term; Gen Pervez Musharraf; Asif Ali Zardari and now Imran Khan. In fact, it is also
important to remember former army chief Gen Ashfaq Kayani’s statement to a group of journalists —
including one Indian — during a trip to Siachen in 2012. This constant translates into consistent state
policy, if one is willing to recognise it as such.

Privately, most politicians agree that peace

with India is the best option but few stick to
this position in public.

In fact, we would do well to remember that all of the parties which contest for and are in a position to
win elections in Punjab, including the PML-Q in its heyday, are known to be in favour of a better
relationship with India. An election campaign in Pakistan does not require lashing out at India to
secure a victory; in fact, it includes an unspoken but rather obvious desire and policy for peace — it is
unspoken because the vague notion of peace is more acceptable than what the reality of such a peace
would look like. And when we do speak, we say peace with our neighbour would be a hard sell in
Pakistan’s biggest province. Is this just a khula tazaad (open contradiction) or a nuance too complex
for a sub-editor?

Indeed, once in power and/or behind closed doors, most politicians agree that peace with India is the
best option if Pakistan is to prosper but few are willing to stick to this position once their rival is in
charge, or be this honest once the doors are opened and the camera lights switched on. Then, of
course, sanity is replaced by political expediency and cheap rhetoric. And every stakeholder is equally
guilty.

The efforts to reach out and subsequently talk are usually scuttled because of our domestic faultiness,
especially the civil-military divide — another constant in our policy and politics, as consistent as the

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consensus to aim for peace.

This time around, there is little fear of this because of the ‘one page’ but the opposition — having been
forced into a different reading space altogether — is not in a supportive mood. Already there is
muttering about why a similar effort by Nawaz Sharif led to ugly accusations against him. And the
media outcry has already caused a U-turn on the decision to import sugar and cotton from India,
which doesn’t bode well for the coming days.

Add to this the public mood, fed for years on impossible dreams of changing territorial boundaries,
which is easily whipped up to stall any statesmanship. And this includes not just the ‘masses’, a word
we continue to use without any irony but also those who are part of the policymaking circles. From
Nawaz Sharif to Pervez Musharraf to the present leadership, it’s hard to think of a single moment
when anyone in charge has reached out to India and earned accolades. Over the years, any such
overture has always been described similarly — ‘ill advised’ is rather popular. The delusions are far
more widespread than we realise.

The reaction is negative also because any hint of talks with India, and the debate immediately and
suddenly focuses on every end of this process. Ambitious in our thinking, a mere beginning or the first
tentative step takes us to the disadvantages of a — possible — ‘resolution’ of Kashmir or other
outstanding issues and India’s intransigence. We expect a big bang right at the beginning; no wonder
then that the reaction or the backlash is just as strong. Perhaps, this is because the leadership also
begins by thinking big. No one wants to dream small.

But we need an unambitious leadership. So unambitious that it doesn’t want to solve Kashmir or bring
peace overnight to the region. It may do well to focus on matters so small that they fly under the
radar — though even this seems impossible at times — and attract little praise or criticism. Ideally,
they would attract no attention, whatsoever. Can this perhaps set the foundation for something
sustainable and more ambitious in the future?

The recent discussions and debates — heated and otherwise — remind me of what someone once said.
That Kashmir would have to become irrelevant for the subcontinent before it can be resolved. These
may seem like harsh words but they are not. (Irrelevance does not mean that the people of the valley
are abandoned but the opposite). And in them lie a possible path for the future. But can we dare to
dream this small?

The writer is a journalist.

Published in Dawn, April 27th, 2021

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Scourge of cosmetic piety

Jawed NaqviPublished April 27, 2021 - Updated about an hour ago

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.

‘Man na rangaae, rangaae jogi kapda.’ The cosmetic yogi doesn’t colour his soul, and
dyes in piety his saffron robe. Kabir, the 15th-century mystic poet, may have
anticipated the revivalist BJP in his caustic way, particularly its chief minister in
Uttar Pradesh, the saffron-clad Yogi Adityanath, the viciously sectarian face from the
Hindutva stable. Intolerant of criticism in keeping with Hindutva’s current doctrine,
he was at it again as the pandemic took its toll, the graph rising vertically.

Anyone spreading rumours about shortage of oxygen in hospitals would be arrested under a
draconian law and their properties confiscated, the leader fumed. The warning came as people died in
droves across the country, gasping on the streets, suffocating in overworked ambulances and in

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hospitals that had run out of oxygen. There was never any shortage of oxygen, only its hoarding, the
yogi scolded his critics as though the explanation would stall the run on overflowing crematoriums and
graveyards.

This was not Adityanath’s first brush with criticism over the appalling state of affairs under his watch.
At the start of his innings following the 2017 BJP sweep in the state polls, he ordered the arrest of a
Muslim doctor who took the initiative to procure small, desperate quantities of oxygen to save
hundreds of infants from dying at a government hospital in Gorakhpur, the chief minister’s home
base. When 63 children succumbed for want of oxygen, and the massacre by negligence made the
headlines, Adityanath took it out on Dr Kafeel Khan who, however, has remained undeterred.

“You have to remember that eastern Uttar Pradesh is a very backward area,” Dr Khan told the
scroll.in portal after his release from eight months in prison. “You have only one medical college, the
Baba Raghav Das Medical College and Hospital, to cater to a population of two crore [20 million]. That
includes half of Bihar, half of Nepal and half of eastern Uttar Pradesh.”

The spectacle of hundreds of thousands of

devotees being encouraged to gather for a
holy dip in the Ganga has been noted by a
worried world.

Infants suffering from low body temperature were crammed in a single body warmer. “These
warmers have sensors that control the ambient temperature depending on the body temperature of
the infant. But when you put four or five babies in there, the sensors cannot function correctly. But we
had to because that is the infrastructure we have,” Dr Khan said.

As for the government’s denial of its culpability then and now, a grim chapter from history bears
resemblance. The 1943 Bengal famine saw the death toll cross 2m. The British government pressured
the media to shun reporting the data and to avoid the use of the term ‘famine’. The Statesman, run by
an Englishman, courageously published graphic accounts of the tragedy with heartrending pictures.
The press shamed rulers and extracted a grudging admission of the crime. Prof Amartya Sen would
later laud the role of free media in preventing famines in democratic societies.

Regardless of Adityanath’s vehement denials of the raging crisis, the fact remains that Prime Minister
Narendra Modi announced the setting up of 551 oxygen plants spread across India. Apart from seeing
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the crisis ahead, the move is also an admission of ill-preparedness though the government had more
than a year’s lead time to fix things up. Communist-ruled Kerala meanwhile doubled its oxygen
production in the same period and now shares critical medical oxygen with other neighbouring states.

What accounts for the government’s arrogance and the vicious response to criticism? Does it see the
holy grail of a Hindu rashtra slipping from its hands? A video shows a federal minister — a minister
for culture, in fact — threatening to slap a man who was pleading with him for an oxygen cylinder for
his gasping mother. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, meanwhile, has advocated the reading of the
Ramayana as a way to defeat the virus. It would be an understatement to say he is not alone in
distancing himself from science when it is most needed.

The spectacle of hundreds of thousands of devotees being allowed, nay, encouraged, to gather for a
holy dip in the Ganga in Haridwar for the Kumbh Mela has been noted by a very worried world.

Luckily for India, even as the corrosion of democratic institutions continues, several high courts have
stepped up to stave off total surrender. The Delhi Court told the government to beg, borrow or steal if
necessary, but get the oxygen to the hospitals without delay. The Allahabad High Court (of Uttar
Pradesh) ordered the state government to impose a lockdown fearing the surge from the Kumbh
Mela. The supreme court, which hasn’t shown any inclination to deal with issues ranging from the
annexation of Kashmir to the disputed citizenship laws, promptly applied the brakes on the Allahabad
High Court’s orders. It has moved to take over all Covid-related cases under its wings. But it hasn’t
yet cancelled all the orders.

Easily the angriest censure came from the Madras High Court, which gave an earful to India’s election
commission. The BJP opposed opposition demands to club the last four stages of the eight-leg West
Bengal elections to reduce exposure to Covid-19. The election commission, accused of playing to the
government’s tune, refused the demand citing security concerns. Yet, the 1984 national elections
were conducted in just three days despite the crisis in Punjab and Assam following the assassination of
Indira Gandhi and the lynching of thousands of Sikhs. Elections in Punjab and Assam were conducted
a few months later. Opposition groups claim the eight-stage polls only helped the BJP to move the
RSS cadres around and had little to do with security.

“The Election Commission is singularly responsible for the second wave of Covid and should probably
be booked for murder,” the Madras High Court observed on Monday. The court will stop the counting
of votes on Sunday if a ‘blueprint’ wasn’t there to show Covid compliance in the counting rooms. The
virus would not have mutated perhaps had we changed for the better first.

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.

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jawednaqvi@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, April 27th, 2021

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Important letters
Muhammad Ali SiddiqiPublished April 27, 2021 - Updated about an hour ago

A LOOK at Haji Sir Abdullah Haroon’s volume of correspondence is enough to give us a

fair idea of his place among the front-line workers of the Pakistan Movement. The
correspondence can form a book on its own. The letters were often lengthy, had the
force of logic, were couched in the political idiom of the day and were written in
excellent English. This needs to be highlighted to show the transformation into a
mature parliamentarian of an eight-year-old selling haberdashery.

A letter addressed, for instance, to Sir Percy James Grigg, a member of the finance ministry at New
Delhi, consisted of 3,000 words and dealt mostly with Sindh’s finances. Other letters, written to the
All-India Muslim League (AIML) and Congress leaders, besides politicians, religious personalities and
scholars at home and abroad, including quite often the Aga Khan, dwelt at length on the political
tangle in India as war raged, independence neared and the Muslims seemed to lack unity.

His career as a parliamentarian spanned decades. He was elected to the Bombay Legislative Council in
1923 and to the Central Legislative Assembly at New Delhi in 1926 and remained its member till his
death on April 27, 1942. That he was chairman of the All-India Khilafat Committee and a member of
the AIML Working Committee, which drafted the Pakistan Resolution, shows his stature as a
politician. The Quaid-i-Azam noted his negotiating skills and made him head several key committees.
This included a panel dealing with the now-forgotten controversy surrounding Manzilgah, which was a
river-front mosque in Sukkur, built during the Mughal times but used as a military office during the
Raj. Thanks to Abdullah Haroon’s negotiating skills the controversy was settled in Muslims’ favour.

Ignoring other committees which Haroon headed, let us note the Foreign Office which the AIML high
command set up to convey the Muslim point of view to the world. The need for informing
governments, lawmakers and the media abroad, especially the Middle Eastern peoples and the
English-speaking world about the Muslim point of view on India’s complex political situation, was felt
because it was going by default. Articles and letters to the editor were appearing in America by
Congress hirelings, painting the AIML leaders as reactionaries who in complicity with the British were
trying to sabotage India’s freedom struggle.

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A Muslim American of South Asian origin sent to the AIML high command press clippings of
propaganda stuff published in American newspapers, including one in the New York Times in its issue
of Nov 15, 1940. The propaganda spewed venom against those leading the Pakistan Movement.
Written by one Mr John Haynes Homes, a leader of the pompously named American League for
India’s Freedom, it said: “Like the Princess, the [Muslim] League represents the reactionary vested
interests, natural bedfellows of Imperialism, and not the Muslim masses.”

The articles and letters published in the British and American press couldn’t hide the source of
propaganda because of the similarity of arguments. The same ignorance prevailed in the Middle East.
Realising the gravity of the situation, the AIML high command chose Haroon to take up the challenge
and inform the world about the Muslim point of view and the legitimacy of the demand for Pakistan

Haroon plunged into the job, the AIML foreign office got working in all earnest, and cyclostyled copies
of news items highlighting the Muslim point of view and the case for Pakistan were sent to
newspapers in Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Turkey, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and the
Arabian peninsula. Besides, offices were opened in many Middle Eastern cities, including Basra,
Baghdad and Damascus. In Britain among those who understood the Muslim point of view were Sir
Louis Stuart and Sir Michael O’Dwyer. No wonder The Times, London, occasionally published the
AIML point of view

His passion for Pakistan and the torment he suffered over the persecution of the Muslim minority in
the provinces ruled by the Congress were evident in a letter he wrote to the Aga Khan, quoting Jinnah
as saying “the Muslims of India have made a grim resolve that if they would go down they would go
down fighting”, and even though Kashmir as a dispute was still in the future, Haroon said in a speech
to a meeting of the Muslim Students of Punjab at Lahore on Feb 16, 1941, that they should take “a
vow that you should not be clerks in the offices, or builders of new villas in the valley of Kashmir, but
soldiers of Islam who are to live, struggle and die for their people”.

Truly did Liaquat Ali Khan, Pakistan’s first prime minister, say of Sir Abdullah Haroon that he was a
“remarkable personality”, for he “combined phenomenal success in trade and commerce with selfless
political service to his province and his nation”.

The writer is Dawn’s external ombudsman and an author.

Published in Dawn, April 27th, 2021

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Ad hoc policymaking
Usman MasoodPublished April 27, 2021 - Updated about an hour ago

The writer teaches economics and development at SZABIST, Islamabad.

ASSUME a policy is ‘bad’ to begin with. Implemented consistently, it will likely get
some groups to favour it, and some stakeholders to trust it. Thus, counter-intuitively,
even if a policy starts with a weak basis, it may become a success over time; thanks to
the thrust from its politico-economic dividends to various interest groups. Though not
ideal, the economy gets the impetus it needs. Sometimes, this is unavoidable.

Contrast this with a neatly crafted policy, with fairness at its core, which may even be revolutionary in
spirit. Try to change everything at once, and it is bound to become erratic. Ultimately, the desire to
build an overnight paradise results in failure brought about by the exuberance of good intentions.

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Policy inconsistency is perhaps the reason for Pakistan’s abysmal development record. While our
South Asian peers focused on human development, and building better institutions, we have been
obsessed with the illusion of growth.

Autocratic governments in Pakistan did catalyse growth, and even accelerated human development in
some respects. Yet, at the same time they wreaked havoc on institutional development. Thus
Pakistan had bouts of dictator-led growth, but without a trajectory ever taking hold. It was growth
without deeper groundwork or an ecosystem to carry the momentum.

The desire to build an overnight paradise

results in failure.

Whether in the 1960s, 1980s, or the 2000s, the aim remained to legitimise the regime on the basis of
growth, which was in turn helped by aid, and assent for international financial flows from the US. In
the 1960s and 1980s, we were partners in the Cold War, and in the 2000s, in the embarrassment
that was called the ‘War on Terror’.

Institutions and the capacity for independent thinking and developing indigenous solutions were
largely irrelevant for these times. The focus remained on enforcement of the reveries of the person at
the helm. The democratic times, in the precious few windows they were permitted, were only
nominally democratic. Political governments were weak and remained on edge.

But there was also an opportunity for politicians in, what Oscar Wilde would call feigning the ‘charm of
weakness’. Political governments were absolved of responsibility. While dictatorships did derail the
establishment of institutions, a political byproduct of this was the facility of conveniently accusing the
military for essentially every issue that got out of the politicians’ hands.

Thus, the unrelenting interruptions of democratic governments by autocratic regimes created

problems that extended into relatively democratic times. In terms of economics, unless someone is
naive enough to calculate the average of erratic values, Pakistan, unlike other South Asian countries,
did not develop a long-term growth trend.

What about the shorter run? The time horizon of five years for a country like Pakistan was always
daunting. Each government faced a trade-off between long-term reforms that could benefit the
country and short-term spending on flashy projects that would charm the voters.

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No rational politician would choose the former. Even if someone did take the plunge, longer-term
projects and reforms were sabotaged by the governments that followed to prevent the initiator from
gaining political mileage.

So things turned out to be even more testing in the shorter run.

Enter Khan. Pressed by his ambition and grand promises on one hand, and limited time and resources
on the other, what transpired was a terribly mercurial policy. Ministries in a constant state of flux,
bureaucracy in perpetual rotation, a new adversary provoked every dawn — it has been chaos.

The latest is the fate of the IMF-programme which hangs in the balance with Shaukat Tarin, a Fund-
sceptic, chosen to head finance. If his interviews are any indication of his thought process, there is
confusion on the monetary vis-à-vis fiscal functions of the economy. His solution begins with lowering
the policy rate, goes to bringing down inflation simultaneously, and proceeds seamlessly into the
blessed land of economic growth. How this will be seen by the clear-headed State Bank chief Dr Reza
Baqir and the IMF is anybody’s guess.

To revert, when the economy was already under stress due to the double curse of stagnation and
inflation (stagflation), the government created a new crisis. The confidence that was just developing
from the improvement in exports, an increase in remittances and the strengthening of the rupee (one
of the best-performing currencies in 2021) reflected in the successful issuance of the Eurobonds,
received a fresh blow — not from Brutus but from Caesar himself.

Khan Sahib, thanks to his illustrious cricketing past, still seems to cherish his aggressiveness and
unpredictability. But what he considers daring and bold, the markets see as unthoughtful and erratic.
Ad hoc and inconsistent policymaking in the shorter and longer term needs to change for good, if a
real change there is to be. Will it?

The writer teaches economics and development at SZABIST, Islamabad.

Twitter: @Masood_U

Published in Dawn, April 27th, 2021

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