Agua potable

promedio movil simple

año mes volumen de aMs k=2 Pi K=2 error error %
1 2017 1 34123.8826
2 2 32598.0112 33360.9
3 3 35509.9181 34054.0 33360.9 2149.0 6%
4 4 34425.9031 34967.9 34054.0 371.9 1%
5 5 33684.2195 34055.1 34967.9 -1283.7 -4%
6 6 32690.9146 33187.6 34055.1 -1364.1 -4%
7 7 33560.3828 33125.6 33187.6 372.8 1%
8 8 33618.0243 33589.2 33125.6 492.4 1%
9 9 31626.9154 32622.5 33589.2 -1962.3 -6%
10 10 32880.5283 32253.7 32622.5 258.1 1%
11 11 32988.0908 32934.3 32253.7 734.4 2%
12 12 34873.2092 33930.7 32934.3 1938.9 6%
13 2018 1 35272.1855 35072.7 33930.7 1341.5 4%
14 2 32723.3189 33997.8 35072.7 -2349.4 -7%
15 3 36502.3736 34612.8 33997.8 2504.6 7%
16 4 35134.69 35818.5 34612.8 521.8 1%
17 5 35225.8772 35180.3 35818.5 -592.7 -2%
18 6 33437.7038 34331.8 35180.3 -1742.6 -5%
19 7 34969.009 34203.4 34331.8 637.2 2%
20 8 35141.91 35055.5 34203.4 938.6 3%
21 9 33744.9126 34443.4 35055.5 -1310.5 -4%
22 10 34145.2768 33945.1 34443.4 -298.1 -1%
23 11 34035.4304 34090.4 33945.1 90.3 0%
24 12 35947.3793 34991.4 34090.4 1857.0 5%
25 2019 1 35898.3204 35922.8 34991.4 906.9 3%
26 2 33269.7374 34584.0 35922.8 -2653.1 -8%
27 3 36743.4014 35006.6 34584.0 2159.4 6%
28 4 35476.2221 36109.8 35006.6 469.7 1%
29 5 38094.0699 36785.1 36109.8 1984.3 5%
30 6 34166.6416 36130.4 36785.1 -2618.5 -8%
31 7 34453.7096 34310.2 36130.4 -1676.6 -5%
32 8 34367.0757 34410.4 34310.2 56.9 0%
33 9 33224.0157 33795.5 34410.4 -1186.4 -4%
34 10 34190.6611 33707.3 33795.5 395.1 1%
35 11 33873.2732 34032.0 33707.3 165.9 0%
36 12 35147.7937 34510.5 34032.0 1115.8 3%
37 2020 1 35360.4101 35254.1 34510.5 849.9 2%
38 2 34211.1354 34785.8 35254.1 -1043.0 -3%
39 3 36278.8222 35245.0 34785.8 1493.0 4%
40 4 36351.0856 36315.0 35245.0 1106.1 3%
41 5 35690.3813 36020.7 36315.0 -624.6 -2%
 42 6 34014.3215 34852.4 36020.7 -2006.4 -6%
43 7 35513.6877 34764.0 34852.4 661.3 2%
44 8 35178.7361 35346.2 34764.0 414.7 1%
45 9 34003.927 34591.3 35346.2 -1342.3 -4%
46 10 35151.7953 34577.9 34591.3 560.5 2%
47 11 34577.9
48 12
3%

volumen de agua
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

PMS
38000
37000
36000
35000
Ms k=2
34000
Pi K=2
33000
32000
31000
30000
29000
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11
 ajuste de tendencia
α 0.55

pr. Simple pr. Doble Pr ajustado ppes pronostico desviacion RSFE desv. Abs

35509.9 35509.9 35510 35510

35509.9 35509.9 35510 34748 35510 -1084 -1084 1084
34913.7 35778.2 32993 33565 34748 -1063 -2147 1063
34237.5 36082.5 30137 34635 33565 -874 -3022 874
33386.9 36465.3 26546 34520 34635 -1074 -4096 1074
33482.3 36422.3 26949 34060 34520 -902 -4998 902
33557.0 36388.8 27264 33307 34060 -2433 -7432 2433
32495.4 36866.4 22782 33446 33307 -427 -7858 427
32707.2 36771.1 23676 33541 33446 -458 -8316 458
32861.7 36701.6 24329 32488 33541 1332 -6984 1332
33968.0 36203.8 29000 32704 32488 2784 -4200 2784
34685.3 35881.0 32028 32860 32704 19 -4181 19
33606.2 36366.6 27472 33967 32860 3642 -539 3642
35199.1 35649.8 34198 34685 33967 1167 629 1167
35163.7 35665.7 34048 33606 34685 541 1170 541
35197.9 35650.3 34192 35199 33606 -168 1001 168
34229.8 36086.0 30105 35164 35199 -230 771 230
34636.4 35903.0 31822 35198 35164 -22 749 22
34914.4 35777.9 32996 34230 35198 -1453 -704 1453
34271.2 36067.3 30280 34636 34230 -85 -788 85
34201.9 36098.5 29987 34914 34636 -601 -1389 601
34110.4 36139.7 29601 34271 34914 1033 -356 1033
35120.7 35685.1 33867 34202 34271 1627 1271 1627
35548.4 35492.6 35672 34110 34202 -932 339 932
34295.1 36056.6 30381 35121 34110 2633 2972 2633
35641.7 35450.6 36066 35548 35121 356 3328 356
35550.7 35491.6 35682 34295 35548 2546 5873 2546
36949.5 34862.1 41588 35642 34295 -128 5745 128
35418.9 35550.9 35126 35551 35642 -1188 4557 1188
34888.1 35789.8 32884 36950 35551 -1184 3373 1184
34601.5 35918.7 31674 35419 36950 -3726 -352 3726
33843.9 36259.6 28476 34888 35419 -1228 -1581 1228
34034.6 36173.8 29281 34602 34888 -1015 -2595 1015
33945.9 36213.7 28906 33844 34602 546 -2049 546
34606.9 35916.3 31697 34035 33844 1517 -533 1517
35021.3 35729.8 33447 33946 34035 177 -356 177
34575.7 35930.3 31566 34607 33946 2333 1977 2333
35512.4 35508.8 35521 35021 34607 1744 3721 1744
35973.7 35301.2 37468 34576 35021 669 4390 669
35817.9 35371.3 36810 35512 34576 -561 3829 561
34825.9 35817.7 32622 35974 35512 1 3830 1
35204.2 35647.5 34219 35818 35974 -795 3035 795
35190.2 35653.8 34160 34826 35818 -1814 1221 1814
34537.7 35947.4 31405 35204 34826 326 1547 326
34875.5 35795.4 32831 35190 35204 -35204 -33657 35204
34538 35190 -35190 -68848 35190

PPES
38000
37000
36000
35000
34000
33000
32000
31000
30000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

ppes pronostico
 estacionales
suma desv. Abs MAD MAPE Ts sin esta. error 1 con esta.

1084 271 1% -4 33360.95 1064.96

2147 429 1% -5 34053.96 -369.75
3022 504 2% -6 34967.91 -2277.00
4096 585 2% -7 34055.06 -494.68 34055.06
4998 625 2% -8 33187.57 430.46 33187.57
7432 826 3% -9 33125.65 -1498.73 33125.65
7858 786 2% -10 33589.20 -708.68 33589.20
8316 756 2% -11 32622.47 365.62 32622.47
9649 804 2% -9 32253.72 2619.49 32253.72
12433 12433 35% 0 32934.31 2337.88 32934.31
12452 6226 19% -1 33930.65 -1207.33 33930.65
16094 5365 15% 0 35072.70 1429.68 35072.70
17262 4315 12% 0 33997.75 1136.94 32932.80
17803 3561 10% 0 34612.85 613.03 34982.59
17971 2995 9% 0 35818.53 -2380.83 38095.53
18201 2600 7% 0 35180.28 -211.27 35674.96
18223 2278 6% 0 34331.79 810.12 33901.33
19676 2186 6% 0 34203.36 -458.44 35702.09
19760 1976 6% 0 35055.46 -910.18 35764.13
20361 1851 5% -1 34443.41 -407.98 34077.79
21394 1783 5% 0 33945.09 2002.28 31325.61
23021 23021 64% 0 34090.35 1807.97 31752.48
23953 11977 36% 0 34991.40 -1721.67 36198.74
26586 8862 24% 0 35922.85 820.55 34493.17
26942 6735 19% 0 34584.03 892.19 33483.08
29488 5898 15% 1 35006.57 3087.50 34884.93
29616 4936 14% 1 36109.81 -1943.17 38438.72
30804 4401 13% 1 36785.15 -2331.44 37138.12
31988 3998 12% 1 36130.36 -1763.28 35510.07
35713 3968 12% 0 34310.18 -1086.16 35288.76
36942 3694 11% 0 34410.39 -219.73 35219.82
37956 3451 10% -1 33795.55 77.73 33816.73
38503 3209 9% -1 33707.34 1440.46 31396.45
40019 40019 113% 0 34031.97 1328.44 31959.05
40196 20098 59% 0 34510.53 -299.40 35975.03
42529 14176 39% 0 35254.10 1024.72 34128.99
44273 11068 30% 0 34785.77 1565.31 33754.41
44942 8988 25% 0 35244.98 445.40 34134.72
 45503 7584 22% 1 36314.95 -2300.63 38515.29
45504 6501 18% 1 36020.73 -507.05 37033.20
46299 5787 16% 1 34852.35 326.38 35026.59
48113 5346 16% 0 34764.00 -760.08 35778.45
48439 4844 14% 0 35346.21 -194.42 35959.08
83643 7604 -4 34591.33 -34591.33 34579.54
118834 9903 -7 34577.86 -34577.86 32557.12
34552.92 34552.92

error 1 8%
error 2 5%

45000.00

40000.00

35000.00

30000.00

25000.00
sin estacionalidad
20000.00 con estacionalidad

15000.00

10000.00

5000.00

0.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
estacionales regresion lineal metodo curvilineo
error 2 indice est. error abs pronostico error abs pronostico error abs
260.28 33863.61 241.02 33882.86
260.15 32337.86 244.19 32353.82
260.03 35249.89 246.05 35263.87
1064.96 259.90 34166.00 247.37 34178.54
369.75 259.78 33424.44 248.39 33435.83
2277.00 259.65 32431.26 249.22 32441.69
1364 494.68 259.53 33300.86 249.93 33310.46
373 430.46 259.40 33358.62 250.54 33367.49
492 1498.73 259.28 31367.64 251.08 31375.84
1962 708.68 259.15 32621.38 251.56 32628.97
258 365.62 259.03 32729.07 252.00 32736.10
734 2619.49 258.90 34614.31 252.39 34620.82
1939 2337.88 258.78 35013.41 252.76 35019.43
1342 1207.33 258.65 32464.67 253.10 32470.22
2349 1429.68 258.53 36243.85 253.42 36248.96
3570 1064.96 1136.94 258.40 34876.29 253.71 34880.98
152 -369.75 613.03 258.28 34967.60 253.99 34971.89
2870 -2277.00 2380.83 258.15 33179.55 254.25 33183.45
2237 -494.68 211.27 258.03 34710.98 254.50 34714.51
1068 430.46 810.12 257.90 34884.01 254.73 34887.18
560 -1498.73 458.44 257.78 33487.14 254.96 33489.96
2019 -708.68 910.18 257.65 33887.63 255.17 33890.11
67 365.62 407.98 257.53 33777.91 255.37 33780.06
2710 2619.49 2002.28 257.40 35689.98 255.57 35691.81
4195 2337.88 1807.97 257.28 35641.05 255.75 35642.57
300 -1207.33 1721.67 257.15 33012.59 255.93 33013.80
1223 1429.68 820.55 257.03 36486.38 256.11 36487.30
3260 1100.95 892.19 256.90 35219.32 256.27 35219.95
591 121.64 3087.50 256.78 37837.29 256.43 37837.64
345 -2328.91 1943.17 256.65 33909.99 256.59 33910.05
2971 -352.98 2331.44 256.53 34197.18 256.74 34196.97
1056 620.29 1763.28 256.40 34110.68 256.88 34110.19
922 -978.59 1086.16 256.28 32967.74 257.02 32966.99
1996 -809.43 219.73 256.15 33934.51 257.16 33933.50
374 -21.18 77.73 256.03 33617.25 257.29 33615.98
2477 2310.89 1440.46 255.90 34891.89 257.42 34890.37
3189 2072.92 1328.44 255.78 35104.64 257.55 35102.86
615 -1464.50 299.40 255.65 33955.49 257.67 33953.47
82 1125.11 1024.72 255.53 36023.30 257.79 36021.03
2524 1031.36 1565.31 255.40 36095.69 257.90 36093.18
2216 1110.26 445.40 255.28 35435.11 258.02 35432.36
 2825 -2200.33 2300.63 255.15 33759.17 258.13 33756.19
3019 -1012.46 507.05 255.03 35258.66 258.24 35255.45
487 -174.23 326.38 254.90 34923.84 258.34 34920.40
600 -1014.45 760.08 254.78 33749.15 258.44 33745.48
1955 -612.86 194.42 254.65 34897.15 258.54 34893.25
572 11.79 34591.33
2020.74 34577.86
1558
2641.07 34300.52 ERROR ABSOLUTO M
error abs. Medio 34297.30

error % 99.25% 99.26%

Regresion Lineal
261.00
260.00
259.00
258.00
257.00
256.00
sin estacionalidad
con estacionalidad 255.00
254.00
253.00
252.00
251.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Curvilineo
260

255

250

245

240

235

230
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
 ERROR ABSOLUTO MEDIO

37 39 41 43 45 47

7 39 41 43 45 47